Monday, October 31, 2022

A Bit Of Military Porn.

Zvezda TV and ever marginally suicidal Egorov posted yesterday Part I of Military Acceptance (in Russian). 

They "deployed" Zvezda's operator (not Egorov this time) on board of the newest Knyaz Vladimir (Prince Vladimir) Borey A-class strategic missile sub and the dude will follow a month long sailing on this boomer which will be training its under-ice navigation. Even in Russian, some visuals there are interesting and this is Part I. Part II will follow, I recon, next week. I cannot emphasize enough the complexity of such subs. They require an incredible volume of industrial, scientific, technological and human expertise, and these subs are the most complex human creations in history. Not to mention them being the most deadly ones. So, enjoy. 

Now, announcement. I am dealing tomorrow with our kitchen countertops and it promises to be a huge hassle. So, my posting will be somewhat problematic for 48 hours, I believe. So, be aware. In this case, use this thread as the open one. And while at it, you may discuss my talking head. 

What is being done with Western education is beyond description--it totally degenerated into a full blown satanism.

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Peskov Cuts The Crap...

... from the get go. This is for those who are still looking for "doves" in Kremlin (Hint: Kremlin doesn't have "doves").  

Russia is open to negotiations over Ukraine, but any agreement with Kiev would have little credibility because it could be rescinded by the West, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday. This means that any possible settlement should be primarily discussed with the US, he added. Any unilateral diplomatic engagement with Ukraine is unlikely to succeed because “the deciding vote rests with Washington,” the spokesman told Rossiya-1 TV channel. “It’s just impossible to discuss something, for example, with Kiev,” he stated. According to Peskov, while Russia could try to reach some agreements with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, “based on what happened in March, these agreements are worthless, because they can be instantly canceled upon orders” from outside actors.

Cannot get any clearer than that. As for people who still insist that Kremlin is run by 15 year olds who do not see what anyone with IQ above room temperature does, again, read Peskov's formulations.

Potential talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden would depend on Washington’s willingness to hear Moscow’s security concerns, the Kremlin press secretary said on Sunday. Speaking to the Rossiya-1 TV channel, Dmitry Peskov said high-level re-engagement could happen if the United States “pays heed to our concerns.” It would be contingent on “the US desire to go back to the state of things as of December-January and ask the question: what the Russians are offering may not suit all of us, but maybe we should still sit down with them at the negotiating table?” The spokesman explained that he was referring to the draft documents on security guarantees that Moscow submitted to both Brussels and Washington before the Ukraine conflict broke out in late February.

Remember December 2021 "Ultimatum"? I remind you about this "Ultimatum's" key clause:

I will repeat fundamental truism of wars--wars are not fought for optics (well, only US fights them like this), they are fought for political aims which range from economic, to security, to religious and other reasons. Russia is a classic example, even during ideology-driven Soviet times of a complete subordination of military to national interests. An Exhibit A of the opposite are the US Armed Forces which are primarily (not completely) a launder-mat for the US Military-Industrial-Congressional-Media Complex. Hence, this radical difference in both philosophy and design behind weapon systems and TOE of Russian and NATO armed forces. 

Let me remind you how I described then (December of 2021) measures Russia will take upon the absolutely anticipated sabotage by the West of Russia's demands laid out in this "Ultimatum"

I am ON record for years: Russia has both overwhelming military advantage and escalation dominance in the Eastern Europe, thus the threats in case US (NATO) decide that they want to continue to play dumb:

a) Removing guarantees of non-invasion of 404 and, in fact, preparing for regime change in Kiev. If need be, NATO intel installations and troops' bases could be wiped out (possibly without warning) as a warm up. 

b) Russia will position hypersonic weapons, including nuclear-tipped near NATO members (such as Baltic States) and may in addition:

c) Create additional shock (in reality--strike) tank armies;

d) Russia will supply China with earlier versions of 3M22 (possibly Kinzhal) and will ensure that China has a decisive advantage over US and Royal Navies in her First Island Chain, while simultaneously providing China with latest AD/AM defense. S-500 may appear there even earlier than in India. 

e) There is some pool of Russia's weapon systems we haven't seen yet and I can only imagine what those can do. I think some people in Pentagon have an idea and they wouldn't want to deal with that. 

f) Russia, certainly, will accelerate the rearmament of pr. 949A to 949AM and pr. 971M SSGNs to carry 3M14 Kalibr and P-800 Onyx and will return them to patrols along both shores of North America. 

3. Russia understands the split with the West and is ready to take any consequences, including, already declining, shrinkage of trade and reduction of the supply of hydrocarbons to EU. Let the US deal with it... Ah, wait, US is making a killing in South East Asia selling its LNG and, frankly, EU is not a competitor with Asian economies which do not even bargain--they just buy all energy whatever the price. If Europe wants to say something to Russia--individual countries can go to Moscow and see if Moscow cares. 

As recent experience shows, even a single deployment of the Belgorod  (K-329) submarine to Kara Sea recently created a panic of sorts in the Western media, so much so that following Russian proverb that "fear has a very large eyes", that even H.I. Sutton confirmed it by posting instead of Belgorod photos of the good ol' Yankee Stretch (pr. 667AN/09774 conversion) thinking that it was Belgorod.    

It was not. It was Orenburg or one of many other iterations of the venerable Ivan Washingtons of the Soviet Navy (in Russian). But real panic there was, no doubt about it.

Belgorod is now back in base, but what was she doing, while missing, in Kara Sea or what she may have deposited there we may never know. Let us say that Belgorod was busy with creating the framework for future "negotiations" with the US on surrender. After all, militaries exist for achieving political objectives of wars. Political objectives of SMO are pretty clear--a removal of Kiev's Neo-Nazi regime and forcing NATO back where it was in 1997. Meanwhile two items are being grossly under-reported in Western media (not at this blog) and they are:

1. Simply astonishing performance of Russian air-defense, which simply guarantees catastrophic losses for any combination of forces (meaning NATO) trying to strike Russia from air--a foundation of the American "way of war".

2. But this one is even more impressive--without much ado Russia mobilized 300,000 personnel--granted, not without some bumps on the road, a courtesy of Mr. Serdyukov's "reforms"--and was able to reinforce Russian forces in former Ukraine within weeks, with more trained personnel pouring into the front line units as I type this. 

Needless to say, such mobilization and public support in Russia--despite propaganda BS spewed by Western media--is simply impossible in the modern West, not to mention the fact that Russia's immediate mobilization resource is around 2.5 million people. With up to 20 million others in reserve. So, unless one exists in the alternative universe created by NYT, WaPo, MSNBC and other representatives of media and human sewer in the US (same applies to America's lapdogs in Europe), one can see where it is all going. And Peskov mentioning this December 2021 "Ultimatum" is not accidental. It is Putin's "algorithm" which many now begin to notice--each next Putin's offer will always be much worse than the previous one. Ukraine, meanwhile, fast becomes non-negotiable.     

Saturday, October 29, 2022

Sail Away...

 ... to one of the greatest pieces of rock music... 

It is deeper than you may think... Enjoy.

NVP Is In...

What is NVP? Recall--6 years ago I wrote:

These are not fake, albeit on the second photo I would have really kicked the ass of the teacher for pointing, even if unloaded and disabled, AK towards students. Let me explain why those are not fake--because in my time it also was absolutely normal to come to the lesson on physics or geography with AKM (later AK-74) if we would have some exercises in the course of NVP (Nachalnaya Voennaya Podgotovka--Basic Military Training) after this lesson. These photos are most likely from Belarus or Kazakhstan where the subject of NVP not never was cancelled (unlike it was in Russia) but thrives and rightly so. I, as well as very many of my peers in USSR knew how to assemble-disassemble AK as early as 5-6th grade,  we learned about basic tactics in offense and defense (squad-platoon), by 10th grade we would be on the nearest military unit's firing range firing real live ammo from Kalashnikovs--these were and are real requirements for the graduate of the high schools.

Now, as official RG reports today (in Russian)--The Initial Military Training is getting back into Russian public schools' programs and it includes training with AK-74s, grenades F-1 and RGD-5, first medical help on a battlefield,  tactics of squad, including motor-rifle training with APC etc. Yes, those things we did in school, including live fire exercises on the ranges of nearest military formations. In my case we did it at the range in Radygino in Kamchatka in 1978-79. Finally. Long overdue. 

This is how you prepare real men on the wholesale scale. Exceptions are possible, of course. Well, it is Saturday and:

Can you believe it? The UK used to be a great and cool country with a great music. I wish to preserve the Status Quo of that time. Pun is intended.

But It Was...

Official  London, lying as always, denies everything. Right. 

The United Kingdom has rebuffed Russia’s accusation that it orchestrated an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The statement came hours after Moscow claimed that the Royal Navy was involved in the explosions. Writing on Twitter on Saturday, the UK Ministry of Defense claimed that Moscow “is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale” in an effort to detract the global community from “their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine.” The ministry went on to denounce the accusation as an “invented story” which “says more about arguments going on inside the Russian Government than it does about the West.” Meanwhile Maria Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, has signaled that Moscow intends to draw the attention of global community and the UN Security Council to “a series of terrorist attacks against Russia in the Black and Baltic Seas” and to Britain’s involvement in the matter.

UK can deny whatever it wants, but as someone mentioned today in Russian media, London is the US' subcontractor for terrorist acts. I agree, this is the extent of the competences of the modern British Armed Forces and grossly oversold, through James Bond's comedies, intel services. Ask poor Skripal's cat. When Russia's MoFA and MoD make such claims it means Russia has a truckload of evidence to back such claims up. That also means, that after the attack on Sevastopol, which was successfully repelled by the Black Sea Fleet (one minesweeper was damaged), and which also has British ears protruding behind it, London received the black mark. I will remind you the event from June last year when, responding to HMS Defender's provocation in the Black Sea near Russia's territorial waters, Vladimir Putin stated:

Translation: MOSCOW, June 30 - RIA Novosti. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that even if Russian ships had sunk the British destroyer Defender during the recent incident off the coast of Crimea, World War III would still not have started. 

London should now be very cautious, as should be the US air assets over the Black Sea, as should be US commercial satellites.  

Unlike the mighty Iraq or even mightier Afghanistan, Russia, being a backward country, facing "the finest fighting force in history"(c), can make sure that this force's eyes and ears are gone from orbit really fast. But, as Larry Johnson correctly notes, those "teeny-weeny" logical inconsistencies in America's premier military mind General Petraeus'--nah, I am screwing with you;))--are telling, very telling. Responding to Petraeus' assertions that "THERE IS NOTHING RUSSIA COULD DO to change the situation on the frontlines." Larry reasonably responds:

The explanation for that is simple--combined West is desperate. It is also cowardly, because understands what real head-on military clash with Russia means, even without the use of nuclear weapons. So, the terrorism--a fine Western tradition--will continue against Russia and Russians. As will huffing and puffing from people who cannot find their own ass with their both hands in a brightly lit room. Here is Glenn Diesen demonstrating the "level" of British "expertise":

This is the "level". We are dealing with people who are on the maturity level of high school girls and who are absolutely dazed and confused when looking at the world outside, such as this guy:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is correct in his warning that the world is facing its most dangerous decade since World War II, as a "vacuum of leadership" in the United States is creating danger worldwide, retired U.S. Air Force Brigadier Gen. Blaine Holt told Newsmax on Friday. "American weakness and a vacuum of leadership do create danger in the global commons," Holt, a Newsmax contributor, said on "Wake Up America." "But what I'm hopeful about in our American system is that through our election process, we can start to address and sew up some of these weaknesses and start to make this a much more peaceful decade." Putin's comments were made Thursday at the annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting, where he also asserted that "the historical period of undivided dominance of the West in world affairs is coming to an end."

While I applaud General Holt's lucid moment, he, as is normal for most US top brass, misidentifies the cause, because America's "leadership" always ends up with Vietnam or Afghanistan and millions dead civilians. It cannot be otherwise because America's warfare DNA is that of the nation which is completely confused about real war and fails, time after time, to follow Sun Tzu's dictum:

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” 

The United States knows neither. It never did. (Geo)political machinations, statements, blackmailing and chest thumping are not a substitute for real knowledge, serious doctrinal and strategic work, world class diplomacy and technological development. But it is former in which the United States (and its vassals) succeeded, while most of the world stuck with the latter. And what's left is just blowing pipelines up and parading dimwits such as Petraeus as America's (and West's) premier strategic minds, for professionals around the world to chuckle. See my last video about 26 year olds running Western world. Larch summarized it very succinctly: 

China, the elder, is learning a lesson its 4000 years never taught it--to win, you fight. Russia learned its historical lesson-- there is only one purpose for war--Victory. War is not a substitute for diplomacy. War is to break the will of your enemy, crush his power and force the solution you need or seek. This war came to Russia, and Russia is using it to destroy the world Hegemon. China will benefit greatly, but Russia will have the Victory.

This is your primer for Saturday.

Thursday, October 27, 2022

Some Relevant Headlines...

... recent XX Congress of CPC was certainly IT in policy terms. 

China has pledged to support Russia as it regains its global power status, foreign minister Wang Yi reportedly told his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov during a phone conversation on Thursday, in which the two officials vowed to back each other in their geopolitical endeavors. Beijing will “firmly support the Russian side,” assisting President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to “unite and lead the Russian people to overcome difficulties and eliminate disturbances,” as well as realize the “strategic development goals” to bolster Russia’s status as a major power on the international stage, according to the readout posted by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “It is the legitimate right of China and Russia to realize their own development and revitalization, which fully conforms to the development trend of the times,” said Beijing’s press release. “Any attempt to block the progress of China and Russia will never succeed.” 

That, my friends, how alliance of two superpowers sounds. Do not forget what was the topic of the whole Valdai Conference and of Putin's speech at it. Right "The World After Hegemony" (in Russian). When even Tony figured it out. 

Better late than never, as they say. In related news, three prototypes of PD-8 engine which will be certified in 2023 and will substitute French-Russian engines at SSJ-100 have been tested (in Russian). While coming communications satellite Express-AMU4 is fully 100% Russian-made with previously used components by Franco-Italian Thales Alenia Space removed. Make your own conclusions how it was all achieved. 
P.S. A-ha. 

Very Pleasant, Very...

... to have what I say non-stop to be confirmed by Vladimir Vladimirovich. Last time I said it was three days ago in my video.   

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared on Thursday that Russia is an “independent” civilization that does not consider itself an enemy of the West. Instead, he sees the “aggressive” and “neo-colonial” liberal elite in charge of the West as a foe. “In the current conditions of a tough conflict, I will say some things directly,” Putin told a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club. “Russia, being an independent, original civilization, has never considered and does not consider itself an enemy of the West.” Hatred for American, British, French or German people “are the same form of racism as Russophobia and anti-Semitism,” he added. Putin went on to describe the West as two entities. On one hand, the traditional, primarily Christian West is close to us in some ways,” he said, noting that “we have in many respects common and ancient roots.”

One of the practical reasons why me and my family can and do live in the US is precisely because of the commonality of the roots. Also, in many respects--commonality of the values' system, which currently is being demolished. E.g. I do respect and even admire in many senses the cultures of China and India, but I couldn't live there--because culturally we are different. Not better or worse, just different. And Putin is absolutely correct, Russia is not West's enemy but Western elites, certainly, are enemies of Russia and Russian people. That is what this whole ordeal is about. And I mean culture not only in a material sense; although the Starbucks and McDonald's left Russia, Russians everywhere continue to drink lattes and eat cheeseburgers. Among many other things which are distinctly Western, not least of them being Russian heavy-metal, punks or what have you. For better or worse--it is Western culture but with now traditional Russian twist. Russians continue to read Shakespeare.

Enough to take a look at Foreign Literature section of the Literature Course for Russian public schools to recognize this (in Russian). You can easily find Moliere, Shakespeare, Hugo, Cervantes, Bradbury, Jules Verne, Dickens, Oscar Wilde and Mark Twain among many others. It is all there, it always was and unlike it is the case in the West, especially Europe, Russia never cancelled Western culture. So, here we are today and this discussion is no less important than discussion on the strategic and operational issues of SMO. Especially since Putin himself today confirmed that losses ratios in SMO are reaching 1 to 7 or 1 to 8 in favor of Russian forces (in Russian). Sadly, 23 Chechen guys got killed today under the artillery barrage, Ramzan stated it today (in Russian). The revenge was dispatched immediately. R.I.P., guys. 

In related news, lapdogs start barking, sort of. Politico even called it: 

Scholz and Macron threaten trade retaliation against Biden. France and Germany want to negotiate with Washington about unfair competition — but they are ready to hit back if necessary.

Good luck trying this, because there are so many terrorists in France and Germany that they may strike, suddenly and unexpectedly, wink, wink;) Nevertheless, Politco concludes:

But even though their lunch came against an awkward backdrop, both leaders agreed that the EU cannot remain idle if Washington pushes ahead with its Inflation Reduction Act, which offers tax cuts and energy benefits for companies investing on U.S. soil, in its current form. Specifically, the recently signed U.S. legislation encourages consumers to “Buy American” when it comes to choosing an electric vehicle — a move particularly galling for major car industries in the likes of France and Germany.

The message from the Paris lunch is: If the U.S. doesn't scale back, then the EU will have to strike back. Similar incentive schemes for companies will be needed to avoid unfair competition or losing investments. That move would risk plunging transatlantic relations into a new trade war.

I am getting myself pop-corn...

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Andrei Raevsky Posted...

... about "dirty bomb".  

While zombies like Brandon and his “genius” VP are clueless about any of that, there must be at least a few folks in the Pentagon or the letter soup agencies who understand the simple fact that the way things look now, the Hegemony has three options:

Not very good perspectives.  So here is one more: how about creating total chaos and hope that something advantageous comes out of it?  In other words, while setting off a dirty bomb will do nothing in purely military terms (it sure won’t stop the Russian military), it will create such a huge political reaction that the current situation will turn into total chaos, panic, rumors, lies, etc.

Read Andrei's excellent dissection of the whole "optics" strategy of neocons. It always was about optics. And the issue of hate fits very well with Larch's summary:

Of Note.

Vladimir Saldo, the acting governor of Kherson Oblast, made today a crucial admission. 

Сообщения о том, что украинские военные якобы накопили 60-тысячную группировку войск для наступления на Херсон, не соответствуют действительности, заявил врио губернатора Херсонской области Владимир Сальдо. «Последние четыре дня оперативная обстановка на театре военных действий в Херсонской области остается неизменной, стороны наращивают силы, однако слова украинской стороны о накоплении 60 тыс. войск для наступления на Херсон – намеренный лживый вброс», – написал Сальдо в своем Telegram-канале. Он пояснил, что российские военные готовятся дать отпор, и на место прибывает все больше мобилизованных, все больше людей вступают в добровольческие вооруженные отряды в Херсоне, это «все люди глубоко мотивированные и сильные духом». «Люди напрасно ищут ответы о судьбе Херсона в информации СМИ и суждениях блогеров, это все одна и та же общеизвестная информация в разных интерпретациях», – заключил врио главы региона. 

Translation: Reports that the Ukrainian military allegedly accumulated a 60,000-strong group of troops for an attack on Kherson are not true, said Acting Governor of the Kherson region Volodymyr Saldo. “Over the past four days, the operational situation in the theater of military operations in the Kherson region has remained unchanged, the parties are building up forces, but the words of the Ukrainian side about the accumulation of 60 thousand troops for an offensive on Kherson are a deliberate false stuffing,” wrote Saldo in his Telegram channel. He explained that the Russian military is preparing to fight back, and more and more mobilized people are arriving on the spot, more people are joining volunteer armed groups in Kherson, these are “all people deeply motivated and strong in spirit.” “People are looking in vain for answers about the fate of Kherson in media information and bloggers’ opinions, it’s all the same well-known information in different interpretations,” the acting head of the region concluded.

The progressive diminishing of the size and combat efficiency of the VSU forces who non-stop try to probe, with disastrous for them losses, Russian defenses along the whole front-line is just one of the indicators of a dramatic decline of the force as a whole. Having said all that--it doesn't mean that there will be no major fighting around Kherson. VSU and its handlers from Pentagon and NATO understand a huge importance of the Russian bridgehead on the right bank of Dnieper, so they MUST attack before Russian reserves in the area are fully accumulated for the drive towards Nikolaev and Odessa. That explains all this hustle with "dirty bomb" and military "genius" Petraeus proposing the "multinational force" in Ukraine. All of it is because of that:

Meanwhile, Russia held the exercises of her strategic forces and they went nicely:      
Just to remind some people that it is better to be reasonable when it comes to real war. So, that gives some impression of what is coming for (former) Ukraine. 

Tuesday, October 25, 2022

My Talking Head Today.

Use also as the open thread, because I need to cook today and I am in the process of re-deploying to kitchen. 

217 kilometers is a warning and not to Ukraine only.

Monday, October 24, 2022

Larry Gives A Spread...

On HIMARS in his latest: 

Is The HIMARS Multiple Rocket Launch System a Game Changer? Short answer, no. At least not for Ukraine’s military. But it is a game changer for Lockheed Martin stockholders, with the defense contractor enjoying great publicity and new orders. Although the Ukrainians are firing hundreds of HIMARS a month they are having limited success in causing significant damage to the Russian military personnel and ammo depots. In fact, it appears Russia is shooting most of the HIMARS rockets out of the sky with their air defense systems. That lack of success has not stopped Lockheed from locking down new contracts with the Department of Defense. But if you think that Lockheed is cranking out HIMARS at a rapid rate, think again. The production process is best described as leisurely:

Then Larry provides this importnat spread. BTW, pay attention to virtual disappearance of Tochka U OTRK missiles from the arsenal of VSU. There is no secret--VSU largely ran out of them, with overwhelming majority of them shot down by Russian Air Defense. Per Olkha, which is an inferior Ukie derivative of a venerable Russian BM-30 Smerch (Tornado), as Russian air defense people of SMO state, Olkha is even larger, albeit still manageable, problem than HIMARS. As per Putin's "we haven't started anything yet"(c), you can observe those "starters" steadily streaming towards the theater of operations. 

Or here...
There are dozens of such echelons on their way to the West every day. Make you own conclusions. Larry's excellent piece will help.

I Couln't Pass On This One.

You know my cynical attitude towards elections, but there is no doubt that Arizona's governor candidate Kari Lake is a very attractive woman, which you would expect from a former professional anchorwoman from the major network in such area as Phoenix's, but this one was really good because also involves one of the best American comedies of the last 30 years--Kingpin. One of the Woody's best roles ever. 

The whole reference to milking a bull is absolutely great and proper. I, of course, will avoid posting here a famous Russian caricature about Pioneers (Soviet analogue of Boy and Girl Scouts) activists milking a... stallion, LOL. But I could...

Pepe Encapsulated It Really Well...

... or what it means to be written off by Russia. In his superb piece Pepe points out:

The pain dial is incrementally going up, with surgical strikes against Ukrainian power/electricity infrastructure about to totally cripple Kiev’s economy and its military. And by December, there’s the arrival on the front lines and in the rear of a properly trained and highly motivated partial mobilization contingent. The only question concerns the timetable. Moscow is now in the process of slowly but surely decapitating the Kiev proxy, and ultimately smashing NATO “unity.” The process of torturing the EU economy is relentless. And the real world outside of the collective West – the Global South – is with Russia, from Africa and Latin America to West Asia and even sections of the EU. It is Moscow – and significantly not Beijing – that is tearing apart the hegemon-coined “rules-based international order,” supported by its natural resources, the provision of food and reliable security. And in coordination with China, Iran and major Eurasian players, Russia is working to eventually decommission all those US-controlled international organizations – as the Global South becomes virtually immune to the spread of NATO psyops.

Read the whole thing at Saker's blog. Highlighted in yellow is a precise reason why I constantly stress that the war is not with Ukraine, it is with NATO and combined West. This is also why I do not accept any "arguments" (misleading as they are) about the "timing" of SMO and its speed. Recall 5 months ago. 

Yet, this news is as important, if not more, than any events on the ground in Russian SMO in Ukraine, because it is this geopolitical and geoeconomic background against which the war progresses in 404. For dopamine-dependent armchair "strategists", gamers and military porn masturbators, who need their daily doze of destruction, death and combat observed from afar, this news, same as such as news as Kherson Oblast already confirming its intent to become Russia's region (in Russian), same goes for Zaporzhskaya Oblast and other regions of primarily Southern Ukraine and this time, in 2022, not least through a windfall of cash due to dramatic rise in prices of resources, even against the background of overall combined West's economic decline. In the end, one may live just fine without new (and overpriced) junk of iPhone or new, also overpriced, brand hand bag, one cannot live without heat, electricity and food, despite Western economists trying to convince other people that one can. But even they now surrendered to a grim reality of doing as Russia tells them to do and it really hurts the pitiful remains of their self-respect. 

It is NOT about defeating VSU--it is about removal of parasitic Western "elites" from the control of the world. That takes time.

Nice Try, But No Cigar...

Hm, 30 US Congress"people" want to "negotiate" now. Sure. 

I don't know why those 30 "progressives" needed 2 pages of beaten to death "democracy" cliches and repeating tired BS and tropes about Russia, but at least:

In May, President Zelensky, despite deadlocked negotiations, reiterated that the war “will only definitively end through diplomacy,” and had previously explained that “any mentally healthy person always chooses the diplomatic path, because he or she knows: even if it is difficult, it can prevent the loss of thousands, tens of thousands... and maybe even millions of lives.” In conclusion, we urge you to make vigorous diplomatic efforts in support of a negotiated settlement and ceasefire, engage in direct talks with Russia, explore prospects for a new European security arrangement acceptable to all parties that will allow for a sovereign and independent Ukraine, and, in coordination with our Ukrainian partners, seek a rapid end to the conflict and reiterate this goal as America’s chief priority.

Sure, sure, as Russians have the saying: yes, immediately, once I finish ironing my shoelaces. It is too little, too late. While Russia is always open for negotiations, Russians take national security very seriously, unlike it is always was the case with Washington and its "elites" who have zero experiences with anything real war related. Always had in the last 70 years. Because Russians take their national security seriously and much more professionally than their American counter-parts, the only sovereign and independent Ukraine which will exist will be a much smaller state where all remnants of present political regime in Kiev will be completely removed--some into exile, others behind bars or executed. Mr. Zelensky included, but leave it to MI6 or SAS henchmen to finish off this clown "who knew too much". 

As per "European security"...  We are going live to Russian Foreign Ministry and General Staff:

Yeah, sure))) Let's "negotiate"...

A Monday Primer.

Andrei Raevsky posted the transcript of Nebenzya's speech at the UNSC today. It is about dirty bomb and Russia calling everybody on this hugely important issue. Nebenzya opens with this:

Read the whole thing at Saker's blog. It is extremely important.  

As you may expect, the stalwart of American faux-diplomacy, Mr. Blinken continues to dismiss Russia's warnings about dirty bomb as transparently false allegations. One would expect such a reaction from people "populating" Biden's (and Obama's) Administration, because any allegations about integrity and professional competence of American "diplomats" are transparently false, hence the US being both non-agreement capable and, de facto, ungovernable, increasingly so with Midterms approaching. But then again, and I touch on this subject periodically, they don't teach Moliere and they do not attend either ballet or dramatic interpretations of his immortal comedy Le Bourgeois gentilhomme in D.C. because it hits too close to home with its message that you cannot buy class, especially in current US "diplomacy". Blinken should have concentrated on practicing law in NYC and should have never tried to become Mr. Jourdain. 

The desperation before Midterms is palpable in the US and for people who say that I "interpreted" Hu Jintao's exit from XX Congress was wrong--it is fine with me, I constantly stress that I am no Sinologist and if Comrade Hu was simply having a bout of dementia, it is fine with me. What I know for sure is not wrong is the fact of a massive purge of the top political and economic echelon of China of Komsomolets (Youth League) faction in CCP which was a radically pro-Western (pro-American) fifth column. For the most part it is over now and Xi solidified his power with far reaching strategic ramifications. Mr. Hu, however, was a direct offspring of the Chinese Komsomol. So, the whole event was emblematic, no matter how one views it. Ramifications are simple though, China now openly admits the possibility of the military solution around Taiwan and that means a serious geopolitical split for the US which is already now out of resources. 

That brings us to the issue of 101st in Romania. I think the United States has been put on notice by Russia that Syria and Ukraine are not the same game. Unlike illegal occupation of parts of Syria by the US, Odessa is historically Russian city and in WW II Red Army, first defending it from Axis in 1941 and then liberating in in 1944  shed so much blood--it is beyond experiences of the American military. If, as some observes speculate, 101st is ordered to repeat Al-Tanf thingy with further "de-conflicting" scenario while maintaining some kind of "exclusion zone" in and around Odessa--they need to understand that 101st will be annihilated. I am sure this was conveyed by Shoigu to Mr. Austin and by Gerasimov to Mr. Milley. Unlike Blinkens or Sullivans of Biden's cabinet, no matter what one says about Milley--he is still a military professional and he has a grasp of such things. I repeat again--I can imagine what is being talked about when Gerasimov and Milley speak. I cannot imagine Lavrov communicating with this schlimazel Blinken without Lavrov chain-smoking because he has to talk to an amateur. Mr. Jourdain, that is. 

Per this.

Moscow and Tehran have struck a deal that will see the Islamic Republic selling 40 domestically produced gas turbines to Russia, Reza Noushadi, the CEO of Iranian Gas Engineering and Development Company, told the Iranian oil ministry’s news agency Shana on Sunday. According to Noushadi, Iran is currently capable of independently producing “85% of … the equipment needed in the gas industry.” This capability allowed it to sign the contract with Moscow, he added. The CEO did not reveal when exactly the deal was struck and when the turbines are to arrive in Russia. Russian officials have so far not commented on Noushadi’s statements. The development comes as the sanctions policies of the US and its allies have hit industry ties between Russia and its Western equipment suppliers. Earlier this year, state energy giant Gazprom had to gradually reduce gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline due to technical problems related to servicing turbines.

Is it possible? Sure. Iran was in the oil and gas business since the start, so this part of Iranian industries surely has some competencies in extraction and processing and it is purely non-military peaceful technologies. We just need to wait for confirmation from Russia on that and on the nomenclature of such turbines, if the deal was, indeed, struck. As per Russia military industries, as usual Western intel failed miserably.  

Russia is about to greatly enhance its military arsenal, the country’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev, said on Monday, adding that output of tanks, high-precision missiles, drones, and artillery pieces is growing “multifold.” He made the statement after inspecting the production lines of Russia’s leading arms manufacturer, the Uralvagonzavod tank plant. Medvedev, who is currently the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, posted a video on Telegram showing him touring the production halls of the plant together with a delegation of government officials. The video also featured dozens of modern T-72B3 and T-90M battle tanks under construction at the facility, including ones that appeared to be in the final assembly stage. The official said he has repeatedly seen claims by Western analysts “that Russia will soon run out of military equipment and weapons.”

I see these claims all the time and my only suggestion to those who make those claims in the West is to throw away their useless degrees in social and political "sciences" and pseudo-economics, communications and "international relations" and get to some serious schools to study industries, technology, math and, maybe, try to get to some War Colleges, especially Army and Naval--that may help. Other than that, as I am on record for years--the West's crisis is systemic and that means it cannot be fixed without changing the system itself. I don't have the recipe for fixing it, I just know that this is the end. Enjoy your Monday.

Saturday, October 22, 2022

Saker Posted Fred Reed's Piece...

... about:  

Pleasurable excitement ripples through the usual boredom of Washington, and the resident curiosities enjoy exquisite frissons, over the possibility of nuclear war over the Ukraine. Some official of the EU, or maybe it was the mediocrity in the White House with the truculence problem, but anyway one of the geniuses ruling the planet’s fate has said that if Russia used nukes, the Russian army would be destroyed, grrr, bowwow, woof. Exactly how it would be destroyed, the sayer didn’t say. Anyway, the threats and counterthreats swirl around the idea that a nuke war between Russia and the West might occur. Maybe, with tactical nukes in the Ukraine, about which nobody gives a rat’s nether region. The world is full of damned fools. But: The general staffs of both Russia and China are, whatever else you may think of them, sane. They know of America’s massive nuclear forces. They are not going to launch an atomic war. Sane behavior cannot be relied on with Washington’s second-rate lawyers, but the generals in the Pentagon are not crazy. They like hobbyist wars and big budgets, but if Biden ordered a nuclear strike, they would be likely to suddenly remember that Congress has to declare war and, seeing that their radar screens were empty of incoming missiles, and say, “Mr. President, we are not authorized to do that.” And recommend a committee. what would such a war be like? Let’s guess.

After that Fred elaborates on how such a war may unfold. It is typical Fred who uses his words as swords and it is a delight. A great piece. However, one small detail which needs to be pointed out. It is all about accuracy and CEP, or Circular Error Probable, and how this accuracy was growing, while CEP was shrinking over decades from Counter-value posture of strategic nuclear forces of USSR and the US--meaning blowing the shit out of well-sized targets easy to hit, such as cities--to Counter-force when accuracy of the delivery systems increased dramatically and the necessity to strike large area targets (to trade effect for low accuracy), which cities naturally are, diminished. Today modern ICBMs can deliver MIRVs with accuracy measured in tens of meters and that is enough to hit a specific military formation's camp, production plant or the area of the ICBM silo. So, suddenly, the collapse of such a country as the US hinges not on wiping out a number of urban areas such as NYC or Chicago--that is easy and counter-value weapons such as Poseidon do exist and are being perfected, but on something much more sinister. 

Today, the misery and collapse on any country could be visited upon by merely shutting down its electric grid, blowing all of its nuclear power stations up, with all what it entails, and taking out key bridges and dams with few other key command and control installations and the country will collapse. Civilians still will die, but not in high tens or hundreds of millions, but something on the scale of 10-20 millions at the start and after that... well, enter what Fred describes. So, it is still debatable what is the best way to die--by being counter-valued upfront or through horrors of famine, urban warfare, lawlessness, cold and illnesses, many of them incurable, which will follow a counter-force scenario. So, it is an interesting question to ponder. Or, as Comrade Sukhov, from the immortal Soviet Eastern White Sun of The Desert, answered the question on own death:  

Q: So, do you want to be finished off right now or do you want to suffer first?

Sukhov Answers: It is preferable, of course, to suffer first. 

So, these are our options and Fred excellently described Sukhov's choice--to suffer first. Meanwhile new generation chooses Pepsi or whatever the fvck the "current thing" is. Who knows what is better.  

Literally, The Gas Station...

.... all kinds of gasses. You know, Russia. 

A global helium shortage has doctors worried about one of the natural gas’s most essential, and perhaps unexpected, uses: MRIs. Strange as it sounds, the lighter-than-air element that gives balloons their buoyancy also powers the vital medical diagnostic machines. An MRI can’t function without some 2,000 liters of ultra-cold liquid helium keeping its magnets cool enough to work. But helium — a nonrenewable element found deep within the Earth’s crust — is running low, leaving hospitals wondering how to plan for a future with a much scarcer supply. “Helium has become a big concern,” said Mahadevappa Mahesh, professor of radiology at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine Baltimore. “Especially now with the geopolitical situation.” Helium has been a volatile commodity for years. This is especially true in the U.S., where a Texas-based federal helium reserve is dwindling as the government tries transferring ownership to private markets.

And why it is so? Here is why: 

Until this year, the U.S. was counting on Russia to ease the tight supply. An enormous new facility in eastern Russia was supposed to supply nearly one-third of the world’s helium, but a fire last January derailed the timeline. Although the facility could resume operations any day, the war in Ukraine has, for the most part, stopped trade between the two countries. Now, four of five major U.S. helium suppliers are rationing the element, said Phil Kornbluth, president of Kornbluth Helium Consulting. These suppliers are prioritizing the health care industry by reducing helium allotments to less essential customers.

Boy, they really thought that war-thing in Washington through. But if this was not bad enough, now toy-boy is upset. 

U.S. trade and energy policies have created a “double standard”, with Europe left paying higher prices for its natural gas, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday. France, the latest—and largest--country to withdraw from the Energy Charter Treaty, has switched from being a net exporter of energy last year, to being a net importer of energy this year, after problems with its nuclear fleet surfaced. To compensate for its declining nuclear fleet and Russia’s complete halt of natural gas shipments into the country, France has turned to the United States for LNG—only Macron is unhappy with the price it’s paying. U.S. natural gas exports to France increased 421% during the first eight months of 2022—but the value of that LNG increased by 1094% in August alone due to the higher prices of LNG. “The North American economy is making choices for the sake of attractiveness, which I respect, but they create a double standard,” Macron explained at a Brussels news conference on Friday, with the United States enjoying low energy prices at home, while exporting at record prices.“In addition, they allow state aid going to up to 80% on some sectors while it’s banned here -- you get a double standard. It comes down to the sincerity of transatlantic trade,”

The "double standard", "the sincerity of transatlantic trade"!? Lol...

Somebody explain to Macron that Europe, France included, is lunch, maybe some leftovers for dinner. Europe's only salvation was Russia, but they missed the train and are going to be consumed now. I am absolutely fascinated with the fate of Airbus and how all supply chains will react to the increasing cost of energy, and aerospace, boy, this industry is extremely energy consuming. Fascinating! Hey, Boeing needs to eat too, you know.

And They Huff, And They Puff...

Larry posted yesterday a very good description of CIA in relation to modern Russia and what load of malarkey all those "reputable" spooks provide on Putin and Russians:

Read Larry's excellent piece which frames extremely well other news which many military "analysts" types got excited over. But, in my opinion, this is a good news in a bizarre sense which confirm the assertion of many, yours truly included, from the start of the SMO that most of Russian ground forces are held in reserve precisely for this kind of contingencies:

It is a classic Western militaries' huffing and puffing and performing a Haka, against the backdrop of a dismal record of war for NATO and the US, who managed to lose everything in every single war they fought in the last 30 years against small nations. So, there are a few points of note:

1. NATO will NOT come under attack if it stays where it belongs--within NATO countries. "Escalation in the fighting" is a deliberately opaque term, because even the level of fighting happening right now in former Ukraine is beyond tactical, operational and strategic experiences of the US Army. The operational "acumen" of Pentagon's and British planners and commanders will be studied for decades in serious military academies on how not to fight a real war. But then again--a shining example of Zap Brannigan and his approach to overwhelming enemies by wave after wave of cannon fodder seems to be the guiding light in training NATO's military leaders.   

2. The deployment of 4,700 US paratroopers to Romania is risible even against the realities of a single operational direction of SMO theater, which sees currently about the same weekly number of casualties (KIAs, MIAs and wounded) of VSU and no American officer or soldier ever faced such combat realities in their life. Nor did US Army ever face the level of attrition VSU faces today. It is simply outside of America's military experience. What will be the duration of combat stability--that is the ability to perform combat tasks while sustaining attrition--of the 101st under present fire impact conditions one can only speculate, but I would say at best--two-three weeks.

3. But then, of course, comes this other issue which Brigadier General John Lubas misunderstands--the only way 101st can "enter" Ukraine is under the condition of an all out war of NATO against Russia, which will require even in conventional (non-nuclear, that is) framework something between 500,000 to 700,000 NATO ground troops for the first "wave"--an impossible task for NATO and the US, unless NATO goes into full draft and I am sure American public will meet this news with enthusiasm and resolve. This, BTW, is the thinking of Mr. Petraeus, who never won shit in his life, yet somehow became a general. He thinks about "multinational" force now--I am sure his stellar experiences in Afghanistan will also be studied (already are) around the world on how not to fight COIN, forget real combined arms operations of scale of which he has only vague understanding. 

4. Lastly, but not "leastly"--I reiterate this my point for years, ad nauseam--no US service, including USAF ever fought anything like this in the life of several generations of American servicemen, top-bottom, from a regular grunt to CJCS. Period. And, of course, nobody in NATO (primarily US) armed forces has any concept of seeing their homeland devastated and losing their loved ones to attacks, famine, cold, illnesses and other things which real war brings on a massive scale. The US NEVER in its history, including in WW II, fought the enemy which could easily strike at strategic and operational depths with ease, and can deny NATO most of its ISR assets. So, as long as the US military only huffs and puffs--it is OK, but it has to be stated, Ukraine and VSU demonstrated perfectly a real worth (very low) of the NATO "standard", with NATO excelling only in PR and shelling civilians and this is without main Russian forces even engaging, so far. 

So, what was that all about yesterday, then? 

My speculation would be that Austin called Shoigu to inform him that arrival of 101st's Brigade Combat Team to Romania was only for training and not the part of the assembling forces for some nefarious purposes. This, plus some other "business" re: 404. No matter how one may detest Austin or Milley, it is good that both Russian and US militaries talk. Meanwhile, the head of parliament of Crimea, Vladimir Konstantinov, suggested to four 404 regions: Nikolaev, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov to get ready for referendums (in Russian). This is the first "batch", the second one, as Konstantinov asserted, are Sumy, Poltava and Chernigov oblasts. Indeed, who knows what is this all about, right? I am also waiting for appearance of the excellent discussion between Peter Lavelle and George Szamuely about American paleoconservative so called "realism" and why these people and their views are becoming increasingly irrelevant. I know many of those, not just Pat Buchanan, but as I said--history is not strong forte of US politics.