A Monday Primer.

Andrei Raevsky posted the transcript of Nebenzya's speech at the UNSC today. It is about dirty bomb and Russia calling everybody on this hugely important issue. Nebenzya opens with this:

First I want to express my bewilderment. We do not quite understand which added value other than a time extension of today’s meeting, carries the inclusion in the list of the speakers representatives of Slovakia, Poland, Germany and Greece. We’re not having a debate today, we are conducting a briefing. These countries’ position we already know very well. It could be nicely summed up by a [single] representative of the European Union. Nothing, but a desire to be featured on national TV screens, can we see in that. In the future, Mr. Chairman, we would like to ask you to be more careful when compiling the list of the speakers for the UN meetings on this subject.

Read the whole thing at Saker's blog. It is extremely important.  

As you may expect, the stalwart of American faux-diplomacy, Mr. Blinken continues to dismiss Russia's warnings about dirty bomb as transparently false allegations. One would expect such a reaction from people "populating" Biden's (and Obama's) Administration, because any allegations about integrity and professional competence of American "diplomats" are transparently false, hence the US being both non-agreement capable and, de facto, ungovernable, increasingly so with Midterms approaching. But then again, and I touch on this subject periodically, they don't teach Moliere and they do not attend either ballet or dramatic interpretations of his immortal comedy Le Bourgeois gentilhomme in D.C. because it hits too close to home with its message that you cannot buy class, especially in current US "diplomacy". Blinken should have concentrated on practicing law in NYC and should have never tried to become Mr. Jourdain. 

The desperation before Midterms is palpable in the US and for people who say that I "interpreted" Hu Jintao's exit from XX Congress was wrong--it is fine with me, I constantly stress that I am no Sinologist and if Comrade Hu was simply having a bout of dementia, it is fine with me. What I know for sure is not wrong is the fact of a massive purge of the top political and economic echelon of China of Komsomolets (Youth League) faction in CCP which was a radically pro-Western (pro-American) fifth column. For the most part it is over now and Xi solidified his power with far reaching strategic ramifications. Mr. Hu, however, was a direct offspring of the Chinese Komsomol. So, the whole event was emblematic, no matter how one views it. Ramifications are simple though, China now openly admits the possibility of the military solution around Taiwan and that means a serious geopolitical split for the US which is already now out of resources. 

That brings us to the issue of 101st in Romania. I think the United States has been put on notice by Russia that Syria and Ukraine are not the same game. Unlike illegal occupation of parts of Syria by the US, Odessa is historically Russian city and in WW II Red Army, first defending it from Axis in 1941 and then liberating in in 1944  shed so much blood--it is beyond experiences of the American military. If, as some observes speculate, 101st is ordered to repeat Al-Tanf thingy with further "de-conflicting" scenario while maintaining some kind of "exclusion zone" in and around Odessa--they need to understand that 101st will be annihilated. I am sure this was conveyed by Shoigu to Mr. Austin and by Gerasimov to Mr. Milley. Unlike Blinkens or Sullivans of Biden's cabinet, no matter what one says about Milley--he is still a military professional and he has a grasp of such things. I repeat again--I can imagine what is being talked about when Gerasimov and Milley speak. I cannot imagine Lavrov communicating with this schlimazel Blinken without Lavrov chain-smoking because he has to talk to an amateur. Mr. Jourdain, that is. 

Per this.

Moscow and Tehran have struck a deal that will see the Islamic Republic selling 40 domestically produced gas turbines to Russia, Reza Noushadi, the CEO of Iranian Gas Engineering and Development Company, told the Iranian oil ministry’s news agency Shana on Sunday. According to Noushadi, Iran is currently capable of independently producing “85% of … the equipment needed in the gas industry.” This capability allowed it to sign the contract with Moscow, he added. The CEO did not reveal when exactly the deal was struck and when the turbines are to arrive in Russia. Russian officials have so far not commented on Noushadi’s statements. The development comes as the sanctions policies of the US and its allies have hit industry ties between Russia and its Western equipment suppliers. Earlier this year, state energy giant Gazprom had to gradually reduce gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline due to technical problems related to servicing turbines.

Is it possible? Sure. Iran was in the oil and gas business since the start, so this part of Iranian industries surely has some competencies in extraction and processing and it is purely non-military peaceful technologies. We just need to wait for confirmation from Russia on that and on the nomenclature of such turbines, if the deal was, indeed, struck. As per Russia military industries, as usual Western intel failed miserably.  

Russia is about to greatly enhance its military arsenal, the country’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev, said on Monday, adding that output of tanks, high-precision missiles, drones, and artillery pieces is growing “multifold.” He made the statement after inspecting the production lines of Russia’s leading arms manufacturer, the Uralvagonzavod tank plant. Medvedev, who is currently the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, posted a video on Telegram showing him touring the production halls of the plant together with a delegation of government officials. The video also featured dozens of modern T-72B3 and T-90M battle tanks under construction at the facility, including ones that appeared to be in the final assembly stage. The official said he has repeatedly seen claims by Western analysts “that Russia will soon run out of military equipment and weapons.”

I see these claims all the time and my only suggestion to those who make those claims in the West is to throw away their useless degrees in social and political "sciences" and pseudo-economics, communications and "international relations" and get to some serious schools to study industries, technology, math and, maybe, try to get to some War Colleges, especially Army and Naval--that may help. Other than that, as I am on record for years--the West's crisis is systemic and that means it cannot be fixed without changing the system itself. I don't have the recipe for fixing it, I just know that this is the end. Enjoy your Monday.

And They Huff, And They Puff...

Larry posted yesterday a very good description of CIA in relation to modern Russia and what load of malarkey all those "reputable" spooks provide on Putin and Russians:

U.S. policymakers, when it comes to Russia, are an ignorant lot with little appreciation for history. They are blinded by ideology and tend to view present day Russia through the expired constructs of the Cold War. Putin and Russia are inept. They are bumbling. They are backward. Etc.,etc. etc.

Read Larry's excellent piece which frames extremely well other news which many military "analysts" types got excited over. But, in my opinion, this is a good news in a bizarre sense which confirm the assertion of many, yours truly included, from the start of the SMO that most of Russian ground forces are held in reserve precisely for this kind of contingencies:

The US Army's 101st Airborne Division would not hesitate to enter Ukraine should a conflict break out between Russia and NATO, CBS News reported on Friday citing the unit’s military commanders. The elite division is currently conducting war games in Romania, close to the country’s border with the war-torn state. The unit's commanders told CBS that they would be prepared to cross into Ukraine if the fighting escalates – without elaborating what that would entail – or if NATO were to come under attack. They highlighted that their current deployment in Europe, the first since WWII, is “to defend NATO territory.” "We're ready to defend every inch of NATO soil”, Deputy Commander Brigadier General John Lubas told the news network.

It is a classic Western militaries' huffing and puffing and performing a Haka, against the backdrop of a dismal record of war for NATO and the US, who managed to lose everything in every single war they fought in the last 30 years against small nations. So, there are a few points of note:

1. NATO will NOT come under attack if it stays where it belongs--within NATO countries. "Escalation in the fighting" is a deliberately opaque term, because even the level of fighting happening right now in former Ukraine is beyond tactical, operational and strategic experiences of the US Army. The operational "acumen" of Pentagon's and British planners and commanders will be studied for decades in serious military academies on how not to fight a real war. But then again--a shining example of Zap Brannigan and his approach to overwhelming enemies by wave after wave of cannon fodder seems to be the guiding light in training NATO's military leaders.   

2. The deployment of 4,700 US paratroopers to Romania is risible even against the realities of a single operational direction of SMO theater, which sees currently about the same weekly number of casualties (KIAs, MIAs and wounded) of VSU and no American officer or soldier ever faced such combat realities in their life. Nor did US Army ever face the level of attrition VSU faces today. It is simply outside of America's military experience. What will be the duration of combat stability--that is the ability to perform combat tasks while sustaining attrition--of the 101st under present fire impact conditions one can only speculate, but I would say at best--two-three weeks.

3. But then, of course, comes this other issue which Brigadier General John Lubas misunderstands--the only way 101st can "enter" Ukraine is under the condition of an all out war of NATO against Russia, which will require even in conventional (non-nuclear, that is) framework something between 500,000 to 700,000 NATO ground troops for the first "wave"--an impossible task for NATO and the US, unless NATO goes into full draft and I am sure American public will meet this news with enthusiasm and resolve. This, BTW, is the thinking of Mr. Petraeus, who never won shit in his life, yet somehow became a general. He thinks about "multinational" force now--I am sure his stellar experiences in Afghanistan will also be studied (already are) around the world on how not to fight COIN, forget real combined arms operations of scale of which he has only vague understanding. 

4. Lastly, but not "leastly"--I reiterate this my point for years, ad nauseam--no US service, including USAF ever fought anything like this in the life of several generations of American servicemen, top-bottom, from a regular grunt to CJCS. Period. And, of course, nobody in NATO (primarily US) armed forces has any concept of seeing their homeland devastated and losing their loved ones to attacks, famine, cold, illnesses and other things which real war brings on a massive scale. The US NEVER in its history, including in WW II, fought the enemy which could easily strike at strategic and operational depths with ease, and can deny NATO most of its ISR assets. So, as long as the US military only huffs and puffs--it is OK, but it has to be stated, Ukraine and VSU demonstrated perfectly a real worth (very low) of the NATO "standard", with NATO excelling only in PR and shelling civilians and this is without main Russian forces even engaging, so far. 

So, what was that all about yesterday, then? 

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has had rare direct contact with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the Russian military reported on Friday. According to the short readout, the two top officials “discussed issues of international security, including the situation in Ukraine” over the phone. The last phone call between Shoigu and Austin was reported in May, with both sides giving away few details about it. It was the first direct conversation between the officials since Russia sent troops into Ukraine in late February.

My speculation would be that Austin called Shoigu to inform him that arrival of 101st's Brigade Combat Team to Romania was only for training and not the part of the assembling forces for some nefarious purposes. This, plus some other "business" re: 404. No matter how one may detest Austin or Milley, it is good that both Russian and US militaries talk. Meanwhile, the head of parliament of Crimea, Vladimir Konstantinov, suggested to four 404 regions: Nikolaev, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov to get ready for referendums (in Russian). This is the first "batch", the second one, as Konstantinov asserted, are Sumy, Poltava and Chernigov oblasts. Indeed, who knows what is this all about, right? I am also waiting for appearance of the excellent discussion between Peter Lavelle and George Szamuely about American paleoconservative so called "realism" and why these people and their views are becoming increasingly irrelevant. I know many of those, not just Pat Buchanan, but as I said--history is not strong forte of US politics.