Monday, September 26, 2022

Larry Gives A Superb Treatment To...

... Kharkov situation two weeks ago and states:

Remember three weeks ago when Putin and the Russian military were on the ropes and the Ukrainian army was steamrolling through Kharkov? That was then and Urkaine’s promised victory failed to materialize. With the benefit of hindsight, it appears that Russia abandoned the strategically meaningless territory in the Kharkov Oblast of Ukraine and re-deployed forces to the Donbas, Zaporhyzhia and Kherson. Why? To be in position for the referendum–i.e., to defend the Ukraine oblasts that would be given the chance to vote whether or not to reunite with mother Russia. Putin’s subsequent announcement of the referenda, which began last Friday, was not a Hail Mary pass nor an act of desperation. The planning for this had been in the works for at least a month, maybe longer.

While Ukraine continued to throw its troops against the Russian lines and launched artillery strikes on civilian targets, it paid a terrible price in terms of human casualties and destroyed tanks and combat vehicles, and failed completely to disrupt the vote. There have been international observers monitoring the vote throughout the four oblasts. I wish at least one reporter would ask these observers when they were first contacted and asked to come to the Russian controlled territory and do the monitoring. That detail would provide some insight into the extent of the pre-planning for the referenda.

Exactly, now having a luxury of a hindsight we can definitely state that, indeed, the whole Kharkov "offensive", which have been drowned in blood of VSU, was a regrouping with the aim to reinforce the south to allow referenda to take place. Larry makes a superb observation and correctly concludes:

The collapsing economies in France, Germany and Italy also will compel those countries to spend more time trying to quiet growing domestic unrest. When you factor in the energy crisis and Ukrainian military setbacks as winter sets in, the foundation of NATO unity vis-a-vis Ukraine, is likely to crack.

This is a first rate analytical work. Read the whole thing at Larry's blog. 

And Why I Am Not Surprised.

In the middle of an amateurish pseudo-operational BS from Michael Koffman of CNA (so called Center for Naval Analysis) or some other Colonel from the US Army to New York Times--normal competent people do not consult this rag which lives out the remnants of its once solid reputation--we find, in a long and meandering BS piece about SMO, this admission:

I am not sure that be that Michael Koffman or whatever the name of the other Colonel is, who "shared" their military wisdom with NYT, are capable to grasp the way Russian Air Defense operates, they simply do not have any experience with that, not to mention the fact that the only thing US military does well is PR. It is impossible to explain to Koffman or any other political "scientist" abusing sinecures in the US "think-tanks" in and around D.C. how real integrated battlefield AD operates and why for it such targets as HIMARS projectiles are typical targets which are no different than, accidentally, genuinely hyper-sonic (M=5.3) Tochka U.  

I get it, Koffman and people in NYT have bills to pay and are "proud" in the most wrong way, can we call it an American "garrulous patriotism" as de Tocqueville defined in in his classic work, but Russian Air Defense operators are not impressed with HIMARS. What Koffman and others should worry about, of course, is the fact that always superior to the West in the combat use of her Air Defense complex, today Russia obtained an incredible combat experience which in terms of AD and ABM systems will only accelerate the widening of already very wide lead over anything West ever produced. In fact, as data (not from Ukrainian "sources") confirms, including videos, even TOR-M2s are now capable of shooting down such targets as Tochka-U. 

But then, of course, another American shitty rag which squandered the remnants of a reputation in the last few years, Time, when taking interview with VSU's Commander General Zaluzhny, quotes this from him:

Well, he merely confirms what I am writing about for years, corollary to Zaluzhny's statement, the US is, certainly, not well versed in the science of war, especially modern one, but what do I know. Zaluzhny's interview is not accidental--the Russians, who according to US military "experts" suffer huge losses, "lost initiative" and, in general, are about to surrender Moscow, in three days will add more than 100,000 square kilometers and more than 5.5 million people to Russia. I guess, if this is how the "loss of initiative" looks like, then we may only imagine how possession of thereof will look like. But there is a possible, more sinister, reason for this interview--Zelensky's useful life has expired and, in a view of increasingly active operations of Russian Army, the West will try to preserve whatever it can from its project in 404 not least in a feeble attempt to save own face. Zaluzhny can be this figure which could be moved to premier position in 404. I doubt it will make any difference, but desperate times--desperate measures, or... grasping for the last straw.

At this stage and with the results of referendum already pretty much known, UK Defense Ministry as represented by the Chief of General Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin met Russian Military Attache in London, Maxim Elovik, to "improve communications channels between British and Russian militaries to mitigate risks and escalation" (in Russian). Sure, considering who current British Prime Minister is--good idea. I am on record, I feel much safer when I know that Gerasimov and Milley are talking, than when Blinken tries to avoid Lavrov by all means possible. So, all in all, I am not surprised.

I Already Touched On It In My Video...

... today, but I will reiterate by posting these screenshots from today:

Or this:
Just a brief review of headlines tells you everything you need to know, because these are headlines of economic collapse, albeit for now reflected only in terms of finances and stock market which, although not a real economy, can serve as a digest to panic which grips the "elite", because for many of them it will mean more than just financial losses. The reason being of many people "on the top" facing some very unpleasant things like... like... hm being hunted down by some angry people (wink, wink)? 

But, of course, these are all only partial manifestations, because the whole West's "planning" continues to fly out the window since Western elites have no clue about anything:

Ah, poor-poor dears--this is what happens when you study "economics" and "political science" in all those prestigious "schools" in the modern West. The issue, of course, is much deeper and much more complicated than "growth", much of it merely by cooking books--the main subject taught at Ivy League economic departments--but it is the issue of geopolitical realignment which is wiping out the last myths of West's dominance and exposes its complete degeneration. 

At this moment I am still trying to process, because it is difficult to grasp in purely professional military terms, this BS about "response" to Russia "using nuclear weapons in Ukraine", because it is so beyond normality that it is difficult to put a finger on a particulars in this sheer insanity and desperation.  The only thing which comes close to this absurdity is, of course, fabled methods of defense by chicken lawyer from Futurama:
Which, in some weird way, reflects the thinking process of people in Washington and I want to immediately point out that I am not on the side of those who think that all this sheer insanity is deliberate. No, not at all, there is no plan, there never was, they are that stupid. As Mr. Helmholtz Smith points out at Larry's blog:

Crashing Russia will be easy. It doesn’t make anything – gas station masquerading as a country. rapidly aging and shrinking population – Weak Country with a Nuclear Arsenal – Russia’s Weak Strongman – Russia’s Strength Is Its Weakness. And lots more where those came from. As Hitler said, just one kick – stop buying their gas, they’ll hang Putin and come crawling back. Our rulers have been surrounded for years by people telling them this. Anyone who said that Russia has a big and very self-sufficient economy, that Putin is quite popular and at least half of his critics think he’s too soft, that money from gas sales to Europe are nice but there are lots of other customers, that you can’t be secure unless the other guy feels secure – what happened to them? You know the answer. They never got the chance to tell the bosses this and they never got in the door. And, when they did say these things – on the fringes far away from “trusted sources” and “fact checkers” – they were condemned as Putin apologists and their social media accounts were blocked. After all you can’t give a platform to disinformation when there’s so much real information from real experts like Martin Walker who told us in 2006 “But strategically, Russia’s real weaknesses are getting worse and its non-oil economy is lagging ever further behind its Indian and Chinese rivals.” Stupid or smart, the bosses were only told one thing by everyone who got to them and year after year they ignored all the counter evidence. That’s stupid. But it’s pleasing, especially to mediocre minds, to be told that you’ve got both might and right in your corner and your skillful management and nuanced understanding deserve another pay raise. For years, the same old stuff, over and over amplified and repeated – just one kick.

Or as Forrest Gump used to say--“Stupid is as stupid does.” Systemic collapse in progress, anyone?

Saturday, September 24, 2022

Not Really The News...

... if one asks me, because it was clear from the inception that the US will not give up fat juicy submarine construction contracts for AUKUS project:

Amid heightened tensions with China, the administration of US President Joe Biden is looking to expedite the production of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia by building “the first few” vessels on US soil, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. According to unnamed Western officials, the potential agreement on the matter seeks to provide Canberra with a number of nuclear subs by the mid-2030s, while also laying the groundwork for long-term production of the vessels in Australia itself. The move is reportedly being mulled by senior officials from the US, Australia, and UK. All three nations are members of AUKUS, a security pact that was announced in September 2021. Besides promoting “a free and open Indo-Pacific,” it also envisages providing Australia with conventionally-armed and nuclear-powered submarines, thus significantly boosting its naval capabilities.

It IS boosting of naval capabilities but, as WSJ reports in a classic chutzpah move:

Meanwhile, the proposal is said to have its own issues. The US would reportedly need to spend billions of dollars to expand submarine production capabilities on American soil, although Australia is supposedly expected to contribute to these efforts.

You see? Not only Australia will buy those subs, she will help to build shipbuilding capacity. They say 2030 is a the target date, we'll see about that, considering a horrendous economic dynamics in the Western world, but then again--who knows at this stage. In funny news, however, this stands out. As RIAFAN reports:

Translation: The Pentagon has developed a military strategy for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye region. The offensive plan would be “suicidal” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said Volodymyr Rogov, chairman of the “We are with Russia” movement. The strategy proposed by the United States involves forcing the Dnieper with the help of landings and pontoon crossings, the interlocutor told the portal. These attacks will result in thousands of deaths for Ukraine, which the Ukrainian military understands, Rogov believes. “But the military is well aware that this is suicide. Therefore, their army is already trying in every possible way to move away from this, ”he stressed.

That sounds about right, considering Pentagon's "stellar" operational experiences and seeing who represents it today in the public realm, ranging from BSer  admiral Kirby to people of Keane or Petraeus' military "qualities", it is totally conceivable to expect shit like that being viewed as a viable "strategy". Recall Bismark's quip (allegedly he stated that):

Never fight with Russian. On your every stratagem they answer unpredictable stupidity.

Should Bismark have been alive today and could observe the last 80 years of the development of "strategies", especially by NATO, he surely would have rephrased his quote and you all know how. In general, the VSU C2-ed by the US was busy last few months with what Douglas Macgregor terms as the "impaling of Ukraine reserves" on Russian troops. So, you get the picture. In the end, as I repeat this ad nauseam, one has to know what REAL war and operational planning against top notch opponent is--the experience Pentagon simply doesn't have. But that issue of the military school of thought and how it develops had many volumes written about by people who, unlike me, commanded real armies and army groups in strategic level operations or campaigns. 

Now with 300,000 Russians being mobilized, the picture of the larger objectives for Russia begins to emerge and this is a very bad news for NATO and its leader--the United States. The whole "rules based order", a euphemism for the American hegemony, is being disassembled as I type this. We may discuss here the actual meaning of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but there is very little doubt that the way United Nations operates today is indicative of a totally paralyzed structure corrupted by the West top-bottom and as such must be either reformed or completely abolished. But this is the task for real global shakers and movers led by Russia. Meanwhile, referenda in former Ukraine continue despite Kiev regime and its sponsors from D.C. and Brussels doing all they can to kill as many civilians as possible in the act of intimidation, but that is not having any effect on proceedings. 

In two days more than 45% of voters in LNR and 55% in DNR have voted and there are still three days left, Zaporozhie saw 35% attendance (in Russian). I am sure the work on establishing a permanent military infrastructure in newly emerging military district of Russia in new four subject is already in progress, and that means a solid second echelon and allocation of reserves when the time for Nikolaev and Odessa comes. This is your primer for Saturday. 

Friday, September 23, 2022

When It Was Worth It, Friday...

... I will make a video on that, if the West (not modern one--this one has to die) is even worth saving ... But one guy, his name was Ronnie Padavona, who later became known as Ronnie Jame Dio sang incredible songs....

On the other hand, how can you describe to modern generation what REAL singing is...

My Friday Sitrep...

... of sorts. We are witnessing history in the making.  

Graham Phillips, meanwhile, continues counting beautiful Donbass girls, LOL! 

And it is also very symbolic and peaceful.  

That What This Is All About:

Graham Phillips provides some snippets:

While Western MSM provide some copious amounts of BS. As Larry notes:

Western sources are circulating videos on social media of lines of cars trying to get out of Russia and lines of young men at the airports looking for a safehaven overseas. Is it true? Well, there are other videos of lines forming outside military recruitment offices in Russia.

Sure, what do you expect from them--they are shit-diggers and will never report real news. So, here it is, the voting has started and for those who still do not understand, I reiterate--Russia is about to get additional 100,000 + square kilometers of territory and 5 + million people, that also means that Russia MUST form in essence a new military district, the one which is bordering de facto NATO. People forget about it. Just keep this in mind. 

This is the line to military commissariat in Chechnya--all these guys are there to volunteer. Same pictures one can observe all over Russia. Just saying. 

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Me With Some Comments Today.

My talking head. 

Looks like there will be "Medvedev's Map" Solution for... 404.

Do not forget also that by October 1 there will be more than 100,000 square kilometers and more than 5 million people added to Russia.

They Wanted War.

They surely got one now: 

It is, of course, a planned action preceding referenda of four oblast (regions) of former Ukraine to join Russia, which they will join most likely by the 1st of October and will need troops stationed at the new borders of Russian Federation while the further roll towards Nikolaev and Odessa commences. Kharkov could be the target too.

For those who still drink Kiev regime Kool Aid, Shoigu today went on record and stated the number of KIAs of Russian forces since the start of SMO (in Russian)--it is 5, 937 KIAs. Shoigu also stated that number of VSU KIAs is counted as 61,207 per Russian (usually very conservative) estimates. It was also confirmed that Kremlin refused to speak to Macron after his call to Moscow today (in Russian)--there is nothing to talk about with Europe. I am sure they are preparing new "package" of sanctions, like... like... not buying Russian... beer or something. To give a bit of a context to all that:

They cannot stop inflation, because they don't know how. Because they don't know how real economy works, but sense where it is all going--not a very good destination, to put it mildly.

Tuesday, September 20, 2022

You May Not Know This...

 ... but Moscow held yet another festival of military orchestras Spasskaya Bashnya (Spasso Tower) two weeks ago and, boy, did Egyptians kill it.  

Amazing! Yet, to understand what it meant for Russians even 6 years ago, when Russians march in a front of the VOICE of France who is a mark of this festival, immortal Mireille Mathieau, one begins to understand the tectonic shift...

So much changed. But then again, Mireille's voice never dies. Unlike France...

From Different Corners.

As one Russian commenter succinctly noted--these were Americans who "aestheticized" modern war by means of Hollywood and counter-culture. Many people would be surprised how many Soviets have been influenced by this imagery. I am not saying it is bad or good, I am saying that this aesthetics survived and then spread. Here is how it fits perfectly.  He even called it--Good Morning, Vietnam!

In related news, the newest report from Russian stores (in this particular case famous huge Russian retail chain Lenta). See for yourself how Russians are suffering from sanctions and isolation. Report from 4 days ago. Horrible, horrible empty shelves.

And don't get me started on commercial aerospace industry. But then again, Michael Hudson IS on record--they don't teach real economics in Western universities.

Something on Referenda.

From me today. This is how the strategy (not just military strategy) is implemented on the national level. 

Military ramifications are huge. Recall Putin--we haven't started anything yet (c). He never lies about his intentions.

Monday, September 19, 2022

About Obvious.

Now, that the hysteria with "losing" Balakleya and Izyum (quotation marks are deliberate) due to this famous VSU "offensive" has subsided, and once the issue of the Kherson catastrophe for VSU is considered, we may confidently state that the whole thing was very deliberate on Russian side. Fast backward to the start of SMO--this is for those who already forgot--and recall what was the main issue then? Right, if you recall--it was the question of how Russian Army will be "taking" urban centers, such as Kiev or Kharkov. This was also the issue of both Pentagon planners and Western propaganda which was build prior to SMO on the assumptions (wrong ones) that Russians will go for jugular and start taking down regime by means of taking its main cities. Naive (and incompetent) people, what can one say. They thought that prodding Russia to get into the cities where they prepared (for Pentagon and British General Staff it means hiding behind civilians) "defenses" Russians would bleed and provide a copious amount of propaganda fodder. 

There was one issue with that--Neither US nor UK ever fought real defensive battles on a strategic level, Russians wrote a book on them. They didn't read this book in D.C. and in London. Apart from inevitable peeling off VSU "defenses" in Donbass, with all those towns and hamlets turned into one huge fortified area (укрепрайон) where VSU could and did hide behind the backs of civilians, Russian Army never went INTO any large urban center as Western planners hoped for using a primitive cliche thinking that if Russians took Grozny, Russians and SAA took Aleppo, Russians took Crimea, then they surely would take Kharkov, Kiev etc. So, for Pentagon "thinkers" who do think in cliches, the fact that every Soviet and Russian officer was and is taught to apply historic military lessons CREATIVELY (творчески применять уроки военной истории к современной войне) to the modern war, was and is unknown. After all, the image of Russian automatons with arithmometers who cannot think beyond the framework of instructions... what has been imprinted in the American military mind for ages by, ironically, right... Germans. Namely former Wehrmacht and SS military leaders who were forced by the US military to write their memoirs on how they won... pardon... lost to Russians in WW II. And don't you dare to think that Red Army defeated the best of Europe in 1941-45. Ah yes, those studies. They did warn, though:

This study was prepared for the Historical Division, European Command, by a group of former German generals and general staff officers. The names of the contributors are not announced at this time. The principal author, who by the end of the war had attained the rank of full general (Generaloberst), served on the Eastern Front throughout the Russian campaign and the subsequent retreat into the northern plains of Germany. He was successively commander of an infantry brigade, of a panzer division from November 1941 to February 1943, and of two different corps in the battles for Kharkov and Belgorod during 1943. Appointed commander of a panzer army on 1 December 1943, he participated in the withdrawal in the south until the Germans reached the Carpathians. In August 1944 he was transferred to Army Group Center, and his last assignment was with Army Group Weichsel. During this final phase of his military career he played an important part in the retreat from Lithuania, East Prussia, and Pomerania.

The reader is reminded that all publications in the GERMAN REPORT SERIES were written by Germans from the German point of view and that the procedures of the German Army differed considerably from those of the United States Army. Authorized German tables of organization and equipment, official German combat doctrine, or standard German staff methods form the basis for improvisations throughout this study. As prepared by the authors, this study consisted of a collection of 157 examples of improvisations which were screened by the editors for pertinence, clarity, and interest to the American reader. Moreover, an attempt was made to establish common denominators for the great variety of examples. Although the manuscript was completely reorganized during this editorial process, every effort was made to retain the point of view, the expressions, and even the prejudices of the authors.

But who heeds those warnings? The idol of the US armored force, General George S. Patton was considered by Germans themselves to be the most "German" American general, not to speak, of course, about Patton's attitude towards Russians as untermensch. So, no matter how one plays it, the US Army was mightily influenced by Germans not only in a shape of the US Army helmets which look very much as good ol' Stahl Helmets of Wehrmacht but, most importantly, what was UNDER those helmets and those are brains. Obviously the truism of learning from the best does not apply to modern US ground forces and, as the result, the whole plan for Ukraine went belly up first when Russian allied forces managed to wipe out  the initial army of several hundred thousands of VSU and their Nazi formations, and are now in the phase of annihilating the second iteration of VSU, which, finally, was lured out into the open first at around Kherson starting from August 27, and now with this "famed" VSU "offensive" drowned in blood and largely extinguished around Kharkov--all in the OPEN terrain, mind you. They were lured out of their safe havens behind civilians in urban centers. 

Now, elaborations start on if those suicidal offensives were done for the internal PR purposes in the US, for the benefit of the DNC, or was it a perfectly timed bait by Russians? Here is something to consider. Larry notes today:

Did You Know that Ukrainian soldiers are “routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis?” Nope, I did not know that. But thank God we have retired General Dave Petraeus to clue us in.

After that he proceeds to demolish the whole "establishment" narrative (a euphemism for BS) and he starts with a phrase because of which I had to wipe my monitors after me spewing my coffee. 

Turns out that General Dave experienced premature military orgasm.

LOL. But apart from obvious slavery to narrative, can we state that most of those retired and serving US generals who "consulted", a euphemism for Command and Control, VSU on those offensives got caught or, rather, bought the strategic "picture" constructed by Russians hook, line and sinker? I say, all signs in favor of this conclusion are there. I reiterate: the US doesn't have real operational experience with strategic, theater wide, defensive operations at all. Mind you, the length of the front in Ukraine is around 1,200 kilometers. After that, ask yourself a question why Russians are content with physical annihilation of the different iterations of VSU and scores of foreign "mercenaries", many of who are merely cadre NATO personnel with a shallow undercover "legend" of a volunteer. 

They are learning about real war with the peer on the job, those who survive. But, as I already stated, the US simply has NO experience since 1950 of developing a national strategy which is fully integrated with political, economic and military aims of the state (nation) globally. And here is the reason: not only we can observe a dramatic decline in competence and expertise of the America's top brass, but US political system prevents this in the most radical way by both sacrificing everything at the altar of partizan politics and sheer incompetence and corruption of America's political "elites" who are in the pockets of different interest groups. Moreover, no American military leader ever fought a peer, who, incidentally, if someone decides to do the unthinkable, can psychically annihilate a combination of enemies by wiping their countries off the map. Nor, as empirical evidence shows, did the United States produce a serious geopolitical and military thinker in ages, resorting to promoting sophomoric geopolitical and military BS as some serious scholarly achievement in "strategy". Laughable, who are those "strategists"? Fukuyama? Brzezinski? Kissinger? Petraeus? Ben Hodges? Seriously? What, did they ever win anything?

As the events of the last three + weeks demonstrated so well, US military exists primarily for laundering huge budgets and in the state of a perpetual self-praise against the background of its best ever peer which is not only ran by NATO but now also is manned with NATO personnel, being obliterated on the scale which NO NATO military can take without disintegrating. It is the issue of REAL operations and of REAL strategy as executed militarily for the benefit of a national strategy as defined by political top which is working for the benefit of the nation, the notion which is unknown for the United States in the last 60 years, because in the end the United States failed to coalesce into the real nation and I wrote three books on that. Everything starts from there. But then again, what do I know? 

In related news:

China is entirely capable of imposing a naval blockade on Taiwan, commander of the US Seventh Fleet, Vice Admiral Karl Thomas, acknowledged in an interview with The Wall Street Journal published on Monday. “They have a very large navy, and if they want to bully and put ships around Taiwan, they very much can do that,” the admiral said. China has already created a large and modern navy, Thomas stated, with the number of military vessels at Beijing’s disposal continuing to grow rapidly. The admiral said that he did not, however, know whether China is seeking to take any actual action against Taiwan, which Beijing regards as an integral part of its territory, whether through an all-out invasion or a naval blockade. “Clearly, if they do something that’s non-kinetic, which, you know, a blockade is less kinetic, then that allows the international community to weigh in and to work together on how we’re going to solve that challenge,” he explained.

I am telling you, there are still a few competent and realist people in the US and if one would expect the place where they are, that surely has to be the US Navy and nobody questions its pedigree, for all its problems. So, this is your primer for late Monday. My root canal went really easy, especially comparing to one a few months ago.

Sunday, September 18, 2022

It Has Been An Emotional Experince...

...  especially this.  22,000 people packed Tacoma Dome to listen to a living legend. 

Boy, how many memories from my teen years through a much more mature age all this brought.  The stage and the sound were outstanding. A powerful experience. 

Saturday, September 17, 2022

Yet Another BS From WSJ.

No, really. The bunch of the so called "journalists" from this tabloid rag are at it again. 

Now, here is the guy who knows about it more than all US MSM and so called "Intel" community combined.

САМАРКАНД, 16 сен - РИА Новости. У России нет проблем с беспилотниками, они лучшие и их достаточно, заявил директор Федеральной службы по военно-техническому сотрудничеству Дмитрий Шугаев."У нас нет проблем с беспилотниками. У нас лучшие беспилотники. У нас самые замечательные беспилотники", - сказал он журналистам. На вопрос, достаточно ли их, Шугаев сказал, что "у нас всего достаточно". Ранее некоторые СМИ и Telegram-каналы распространили неподтвержденную информацию о том, что в зоне проведения спецоперации России на Украине якобы были найдены фрагменты беспилотника, внешне схожего с иранским дроном-камикадзе. Комментируя эти сообщения, Шугаев призывал верить только заявлениям по линии министерства обороны.
Translation: SAMARKAND, September 16 - RIA Novosti. Russia has no problems with drones, they are the best and there are enough of them, said Dmitry Shugaev, director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation. "We have no problems with drones. We have the best drones. We have the most wonderful drones," he told reporters. When asked if there were enough of them, Shugaev said that "we have enough of everything." Earlier, some media outlets and Telegram channels disseminated unconfirmed information that fragments of a drone, outwardly similar to an Iranian kamikaze drone, were allegedly found in the Russian special operation zone in Ukraine. Commenting on these reports, Shugaev urged to believe only statements from the Ministry of Defense.
But you can sense butt-hurt miles away from all kinds of Western media and "military" outlets. Pathetic. Only sore losers spread fakes and Western media and most "analysts" take a crown here. Larry wrote a superb piece on that:

Politicized intelligence is not a new phenomena. It happened during the War in Vietnam as President Johnson and Secretary of Defense McNamara pressured CIA analysts, George Allen and Sam Adams (those are real names) to change their conclusion that the Viet Cong had not been decimated by U.S. and South Vietnamese military operations. George, who trained me as a new analyst, wrote an amazing but largely unknown book, None So Blind: A Personal Account of the Intelligence Failure in Vietnam Hardcover – August 28, 2001. Allen tells you in detail how politics played a major role in that intelligence failure. Well worth your time.

I saw politicization as an analyst responsible for Honduras during the U.S. backed Contra war against the Nicaraguan Sandinistas. I recall one occasion where I puzzled over a CIA field report about a Contra attack on a Sandinista target but there was no corroborating intelligence. Because I had friends on the operations side of the house working on the Central American Task Force, I was able to make some quiet inquiries. I was stunned to learn that the guy in charge of the military ops in that task force–a guy who graduated from West Point in 68 but missed the war in Vietnam–was drafting the operations orders for missions he wanted the Contras to carry out and then published those orders as intel about the success of those operations. Only one little problem–the operations never took place.

I plan to speak about this tomorrow, especially in a view of a shitload of fakes spread by... Russian TG channels in the last week, all which have been utterly debunked by both Kremlin, MoD and real (REAL) military professionals. It is especially poignant against a terrifying data on many thousands of KIAs of VSU and foreign mercenaries (many of them are regulars with "legend") near Kharkov and annihilation of VSU forces around Kherson.

Friday, September 16, 2022

I Know, It Is Friday...

 ... and modern world sucks, but use it as your vent. But still, keep in mind what Olga Kormuhina did a few days ago at Saur Mogila which was restored in Donbass. This is how it was destroyed:

But people still flocked to it. This is how it looked 7 days ago after being reopened and playing Prokofiev's immortal "Rise Up, Russian People". Great Russian rock-goddess Olga Kormukhina sang it. 

Yes, this is from Alexander Nevsky movie score and her husband's Alexey Belov's famous rock rendition by Gorky Park:

It was all prophetic...

Friday's Talk.

Me talking today. 


Thursday, September 15, 2022

Pentagon's Operational Planning...

 ... for VSU as explained by Zap Brannigan. 

Succinct and to the point.


How To Be Written Off...

Anybody who is anybody speaks openly about the fact that Russia's war is with the combined West non-stop for many years. This blog speaks about it for 8 years. So, when some begin to exclaim recently that Russia must understand that her war is with the West, the immediate question is--what stone did you sleep under for the last 8 years. So, in terms of the larger picture we have today Putin and Xi doing their thing in Samarkand, with Xi stating:

And this type of statements is expected but as I am on record, there is a guy in Russian government who is so powerful that many in the West prefer not to talk about him directly very often. His name is Alexandr Novak and he is Russia's energy minister. While putin and Xi were busy making grand strategy statements, Novak, commenting on the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline to China stated this:

САМАРКАНД, 15 сентября. /ТАСС/. Газопровод "Сила Сибири - 2" может стать фактической заменой для России газопровода "Северный поток - 2". Об этом в четверг сообщил вице-премьер РФ Александр Новак в интервью для программы "Москва. Кремль. Путин", фрагмент которого был показан на телеканале "Россия-1". "Ну, фактически - да", - сказал вице-премьер, отвечая на вопрос журналиста Павла Зарубина, может ли газопровод "Сила Сибири - 2" стать заменой "Северного потока - 2". Новак напомнил, что проект "Сила Сибири - 2" обсуждается "на мощность 50 миллиардов" кубометров газа.

Translation: SAMARKAND, September 15. /TASS/. The Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline may become a de facto replacement for Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. This was announced on Thursday by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in an interview for the "Moscow. Kremlin. Putin" program, a fragment of which was shown on the Rossiya-1 TV channel. “Well, in fact, yes,” said the Deputy Prime Minister, answering a question from journalist Pavel Zarubin whether the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline could become a replacement for Nord Stream 2. Novak recalled that the Power of Siberia-2 project is being discussed "for a capacity of 50 billion" cubic meters of gas.

This is a very bad news for EU, which for many decades thought about Russia as a perpetual backward entity entirely dependent on West's industrial and technological expertise. So, seeing now how Russia doesn't give a damn must hurt. Like that:

All the meanwhile Mr. Sechin is laughing all the way to the bank, as is Russia's budget and social and industrial programs. 

Russia’s largest oil producer, state-owned Rosneft, reported on Thursday a 13% increase in its first-half net income compared to the same period last year, boasting increased efficiency despite the Western sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. Rosneft’s net profit increased to $7.2 billion (432 billion Russian rubles) in the first half of 2022. The company’s oil and gas production rose by 1.5% to 4.85 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) as compared to the same assets it held last year, excluding assets disposed of in 2021. “In 1H 2022, Rosneft was under an unprecedented pressure of adverse external factors and unlawful sanctions. However, thanks to high operational efficiency and appropriate management decisions, we were able to ensure business continuity and demonstrate stable results,” Rosneft’s Chairman of the Management Board and Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin – a long-time ally of Putin – said in a statement.

Boy, that's gotta hurt. Not Russia, of course, who is awash in cash. Nope, EU and a neocon cabal in D.C. who have issue of grasping pretty much any issue related to the reality. It is especially important against the background of this RAND and others' "plan" to sacrifice Europe at the altar of Pax Americana, hoping that this sacrificial lamb will extend America's life for any substantial time period. I doubt it to be the case, because the US is the cradle of globalism which goes not just through some cyclical crisis but through the terminal collapse, and in this case whatever value in Europe's sacrifice is, it is not going to change much in terms of systemic collapse of modern combined West and its leader, the United States. Another matter, the United States HAD an opportunity to make landing somewhat softer, but with three corporate figureheads in a sequence, such as Obama, Trump and zombiesque Biden, all opportunities to avert a complete crash have been wasted. America is in dire need of a serious statesman with balls of steel, which modern US "elite" preparation system cannot produce. 

Now, as you probably can sense yourself that this crisis around Kharkov which Western (and Ukie) media were trying to fan, as usual, simply fizzled out and a local tactical success, primarily for PR, of VSU was all for the optics and didn't result in any serious consequences, except beaten to death cliches and... fakes (in Russian). Or, in English:

Vitaly Sovin: The US propaganda machine is playing dirtier than ever in its information war against Russia. From Taliban ‘bounties’ to claims about North Korea, the US media’s ‘anonymous sources’ are weaponizing ‘fake news'. 

Truth is, never in my life have I experienced such a volume of the sheer BS poured over the heads of population of any modern country, with the exception of Ukraine, of course, as Western PR and propaganda machine produces. It is unprecedented and, remarkably, tells you everything you need to know about... weakness of this machine, because, as is the case across the board, it doesn't get any competent cadres and the only skill they have is a production of BS. Meaning literally inventing shit and "selling" it as news. I doubt many normal people work in US MSM--mostly psychopaths, the "proper" selection was set-up this way since 1990s. So, this is your primer for Thursday.

Tuesday, September 13, 2022

In Other News.

Doesn't seem important, right? Well, actually--not. Very important but it is not easy for some (that is why I do what I do) to make a clear connection between grand strategy, economics and military operational-tactical matters. 

As anyone with the IQ above room temperature already stated not for once, all those "price caps", be that for gas or oil from Russia, are nothing more than optics. No solution to Europe's energy crisis is possible for a primary reason of EU's bureaucracy incompetence and being ideologically driven, with the latter being a broad term covering anything from suicidal sanctions on Russia to Europe being prepped for sacrifice on the altar of collapsing US "empire". It still will not help much the US due to pretty much same reasons as in EU, but, as I am on record, should the US have had competent "elites", the plan may have worked. 

In related news:

The US and its allies are in talks over whether to send Ukraine more advanced weapons in the future, including fighter aircraft, a US defense official has said, according to the Financial Times. Some of Kiev’s Western allies were emboldened by last week’s successful offensive against Russia in Kharkov Region, the British newspaper reported on Tuesday. They are now discussing “Ukraine’s longer-term needs,” according to the anonymous US source. Some believe it would be appropriate to send warplanes to Ukraine in the “medium to longer term,” the source said, according to the publication. Western nations previously refused to provide fighter jets to Ukraine, citing the time it would take to train Ukrainian pilots, issues with servicing advanced weapon systems on the ground, and a risk of escalation in the conflict with Russia.

This shit has been in "discussion" since the onset of SMO and it really makes no difference, if one assumes that the decision will be made to supply F-16 (or any other combat aircraft), to Ukraine since for Buk-M3 or S-300V with S-400 it makes absolutely no difference if it is F-16, F-15 or F-35--they will be shot down the same way as 99% of Ukrainian Air Force was. Random popping out, here and there, of the remnants of Ukie combat aircraft (primarily Su-25 and very seldom MiG-29) ends always with the same result--being shot down. Including by Russian Air Force combat aircraft such as Su-35s. I want to reiterate the point--the US doesn't need another humiliation of its military technology in the open conflict. Most of it turned out to be primarily a commercial and terror product, good mostly against civilians and civilian infrastructure. 

Now, for some hysterical and FUD susceptible, if not altogether gullible, people:

The Russian government is not discussing a military mobilization “at this moment,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Tuesday. He was responding to a question about Moscow’s reaction to last week’s advances of Ukrainian forces in Kharkov Region. Moscow pulled back its troops from a number of settlements in the area for what the Russian Defense Ministry described as a “regrouping” necessary to continue the military operation against Kiev. Peskov said there was “no talk” of mobilization and downplayed some of the criticism that the military leadership and the ministry faced from various commentators over the retreat and Ukrainian gains. He assessed that the Russian public supported Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine and was “very sensitive” to events there, meaning some people will take last week’s setback very emotionally. “Criticisms are a normal part of pluralism of opinions, as long as they stay within the legal boundaries,” he said.

I happen to agree with Peskov on the issue of pluralism. For those people who continue their (utterly amateurish) talk about "mobilization" they:

1. Have no idea what they are talking about;

2. Usually repeat Western and IPSO propaganda, often not even understanding this fact.

3. That is why I am on record: 99% of all those "military" telegram channels, military "analysts", military "reporters", "patriots" and "strategists" are frauds--they have zero military expertise, least of all in serious operational matters, let alone in understanding what mobilization is and what it entails. 

I will repeat, again, that the bulk of Russian ground forces still remains in reserve and the actual number of Russian regulars fighting in Ukraine is (I speculate) out of 300,000 + is somewhere between 60 and 80,000. The rest of the force is LDNR militia and volunteers, who are about the size of 50-60,000. This force size is sufficient for the aims of SMO and for methodical annihilation of VSU's personnel and equipment. Real numbers and correlations are known to Russian General Staff only. Once one begins to put together all (known to us, mere mortals) factors of geopolitical, economic, diplomatic, military nature, in other words understanding "the nature of war", then one may stop repeating beaten to death political and military cliches, akin to:"Russia MUST understand that it fights with whole West"--no shit, geniuses, that is why Russia issued an ultimatum to combined West in December of 2021. So, try to see, truly see, not jumping from one particularity to another, the larger picture, and do not forget what demilitarization is all about. I will try to help on my side.  

Monday, September 12, 2022

My Another Video.

Guys, because I found myself (remember, I am just a man) in a position of... admin fighting this ideological IPSO herpes trying to contaminate discussions everywhere I post anything, I decided, for a time being, posting my videos primarily. Cleaning shit from discussion boards is time consuming, so, thanks to my wonderful Patrons, I can put this new video of mine here. I'll start with that, which perfectly describes current moment)))

Can you believe it? Hollywood was hilarious in its comedies which since became classic. Boy, how far the mighty has fallen... Now my video. 
P.S. I will remove any 9/11 "comments". Those who want to discuss Mossad, Jews and other versions of 9/11--find yourself an appropriate resource. 
UPDATE: Andrey Raevsky informed me that The Saker blog is under attack (no surprise, really). So, keep this in mind. 

Sunday, September 11, 2022

Me Talking.


Both on 9/11 and Kharkov. The announced losses of VSU are already horrendous and currently the information is streaming in that air sirens are all over 404 and critical electric infrastructure is being attacked with many Ukraine cities having no electricity. Make your own conclusions. 


Saturday, September 10, 2022

Larry Fires A Salvo.

That's what I am talking about. A little review of operational planning from Larry Johnson. 

PATTON, the movie, was a masterpiece of entertainment. It is not historically accurate on many points and that is a problem with respect to Ukraine. What? I suspect some of you believe I have really crossed over to crazy land, but hear me out. Remember that scene when the Germans launched the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944 and Patton saved the day by “immediately” diverting his Army 90 degrees to head north and rescue the beleaguered paratroopers of the 101st and 82nd airborne regiments (note, the paratroopers insisted they did not need to be rescued, but that’s another story for another day)? That cinema account of how Patton planned and shifted the axis of attack of his troops is presented as something hastily put together. The German offensive started on 16 December and Patton met with Eisenhower on the 19th of December and received orders to relieve Bastogne. Patton’s troops moved out on the 22nd of December and reached Bastogne on the 26th. What the movie account fails to convey is that the planning for moving his Army north began on December 9, ten days before the emergency conference with Eisenhower.

Add today, of course a much more powerful air transport component, modern ISR and and C4 and you get:

Larry continues:

The planning process Patton followed is similar to what the U.S. military uses today. The current system is known as the Joint Operation Planning and Execution System aka JOPES. I have been involved in scripting and executing over 240 crisis response exercises. I worked for 23 years for the man who wrote JOPES, so I have some insight to the process. He beat it into me. It starts with an Alert Order (e.g. Be Prepared to Act) usually followed Warning Order (e.g., Houston we have a specific problem, tell us how you plan to solve it). The military command that receives the warning order immediately tasks it staff to prepare Courses of Action aka COAs.

Read the whole thing at Larry's superb blog. Here is how he concludes, rightly, his excellent professional insight. 

...the Russians knew it was coming and chose to let the Ukrainians flood the zone in order to eventually hit the Ukrainian forces with a massive counter attack. The Ukrainians are no longer in fortified defensive positions and their lines of communication to support the forward troops are now defined precisely. The Ukrainian attack has not destroyed nor disrupted Russia’s air, artillery, rocket and missile assets. Attacking the Ukrainian units is an easier task, not more difficult. I am not privy to the Russian plan. But what I do know is that the planning process required to deploy the troops and equipment moving into Kharkov was not a panicked response. Hollywood can create the illusion of rapid movement of military troops, but the real world requires alerting units, making sure they are properly supplied and then undertaking the logistic task of moving those units into combat. This means the planning was deliberate, not a crisis response.

For people who continue to rely upon TG channels and "reporters", I have to go with my friend Vladimir Trukhan's suggestion--just give those "experts" the combat veteran status--many of them richly deserve it--award them with some combat medals, but forbid them to speak on operational and strategic matters. Many people still don't get it--personal courage under fire is NOT a substitute for military operational and strategic competence. Larry gave one of its important facets a real professional treatment.

Clarity In Small Dozes. Or Why I Do Not "Do" Sitreps.

1. I already quoted Apti Alaudinov when two days ago he stated: 

But, of course, what does he know, right? He is just a commander of Akhmat regiment which is more of a brigade size formation which fights in 404. Some say they have 1,200 people in SMO (which IS a regiment size force), others say--more than that. So, experienced and courageous commander of this formation calls it as it is. But no, we get all kinds of arm-chair "strategists" who know it better. Well...

2. Today, though, much maligned by me, and not me only, Mr. Sivkov, who is now a spokesperson for Academy of Artillery and Rocket Science, recalls that he, after all, was an officer of the General Staff and states:

«Наши военные знали, что готовится наступление, поэтому сейчас войска перегруппировываются для уничтожения группировки Вооруженных сил Украины (ВСУ), которая пришла в районы Балаклеи и Изюма. Надо иметь в виду, что там нет укрепрайонов, поэтому задача уничтожения наиболее боеспособных украинских частей будет решаться достаточно успешно. На это потребуется еще несколько дней», – считает доктор военных наук Константин Сивков. Эксперт особо отметил, что за последние трое суток, как стало известно из сводки Минобороны, было уничтожено более 2 тыс. украинских и иностранных боевиков, а также свыше ста единиц бронетехники и артиллерии. «ВСУ несут большие суточные потери. Сейчас главная задача – разгромить наступающую группировку ВСУ, лишить ее потенциала, выбить технику, которая находится не в городах и укрепрайонах, а на открытых пространствах. У ВСУ не должно остаться сил и средств для ведения эффективной обороны», – пояснил собеседник. 

Translation: “Our military knew that an offensive was being prepared, so now the troops are regrouping to destroy the grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), which has come to the Balakleya and Izyum regions. It must be borne in mind that there are no fortified areas there, so the task of destroying the most combat-ready Ukrainian units will be solved quite successfully. This will take a few more days,” said Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov. The expert emphasized that over the past three days, as it became known from the report of the Ministry of Defense, more than 2 thousand Ukrainian and foreign fighters, as well as over a hundred units of armored vehicles and artillery, were destroyed. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering large daily losses. Now the main task is to defeat the advancing grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, deprive it of its potential, knock out equipment that is not located in cities and fortified areas, but in open spaces. The Armed Forces of Ukraine should not have the strength and means to conduct effective defense,” the interlocutor explained.

But, but... how could this be, when Russian General Staff didn't call Yuri Podolyaka or Rybar, or Readovka, or South Front and didn't ask for their "expert" opinion? Because as we know, the real war is fought in media sphere and people who wouldn't be able to distinguish shit from shinola operationally rely on their own and IPSO echo-chamber. 

Here is one such demonstration--operational maps. I did a review of this issue a few days and touched upon this seemingly simple thing: that you cannot trust maps by all kinds of fanboys, like Rybar, because those are NOT real military maps and the first tell-tell sign of it the lack of proper legend and scale. Here is one such example of such a map:

As you can see yourself, in a good tradition of fanboys the attack on Balakleya is presented with a nice yellow arrow. But let me show you how, let's say, the staff of a brigade or a division size formation looks at the battle. Here is 1942 and its operational map by Wehrmacht. It is Voronezh. 
By now you begin to notice the difference, right? Right, this one is for professionals and it is also the one which once first symbols of units and formations, both friendly and enemy's, begin to be drawn upon, and you guessed it, it becomes classified. 

Here is 6th Cavalry Corps map in 1941 around... Kharkov. 

As you can see yourself, you get here all necessary geographic and tactical details on it. This was 80+ years ago. Fast forward to 2022 and SMO, not only Russian Army uses paper maps but most of it in the minute tactical detail is reflected on the displays of Combat Management Systems of battalion and higher level, up to to VNTSUO in Moscow. Needless to say, ALL of it, without exception, including REAL positions of Russian units and formations is highly classified and is not known to ALL "experts", me included, who pretend that they know. They don't. Same as they don't know real operational plans, they do not know the real troops movements and all poor and overwhelmed consumers of such "expertise" get is a feculant stream of "interpretations" of media information by amateurs who present their operational "skills" (99% of them have no idea what operational planning is) by producing the SO CALLED "operational maps" which are nothing more than a complete and misleading BS concocted based on the media "reports" most of which are nothing more than crude propaganda and PR. 

I am not going to disassemble here all those idiotic assumptions by all these "experts", many of who are nothing more than unsuspecting conduits for Ukie propaganda, but I have to give them the credit for their compete belief in their own operational and strategic talent and foresight after most of them never served a day in uniform and never commanded at least a platoon, let alone company or battalion size formations, not to speak of serving in the staffs of battalion, regiment, brigade not to speak of corps or the army. But here we are. 

Reality, however, from the data which is pouring in for the last couple of days from Kharkov is such that already more than 2,000 of VSU personnel are KIAs, so you can now multiply it by at least three and it will give you around 6,000 sanitary losses--in general, the rate of losses is even steeper than that in Kherson a week ago, when VSU has written off between 15 to 20,000 of personnel. Kharkov is shaping to be a wowser. A bloody one. But then again, what do those losers in General Staff know when we have internet "analysts" with zero military experience telling us that rate of losses doesn't matter and it absolutely doesn't indicate like... nothing. Certainly not what Russian professional military people say for the last 72 hours--that a massacre of VSU at Kherson finally pressed them to roll out their main forces at Kharkov onto the plains and small forests of the countryside where already today a number of them have been "enclosed" in what is called "fire sacks" and are being annihilated. 

I can sit here and write about this shit for hours, but, frankly, I already confirmed to myself a number of assertions I made in the last few months and I am happy with that, since it makes my job easier. I just want to reiterate--I am not in the PR business and sometimes get a bit tired debunking obvious BS, because it takes time to provide proper framework and context for people to stop panicking, when looking at "operational maps" from Toys"R"Us and listening to incessant propaganda in media. But what do I know, really? This is your primer for the weekend.