About Maneuverable Warfare.

You can maneuver in the XXI century ONLY if you fight a third-rate opponent. In reality, you will be detected, and targeting will be provided and after that--well, the fate of the whole Ukie (US) column of HIMARS MLRS battery. You end up dead. Same goes for any armor. RUK/ROK. 

This is the demonstration from Kherson today. Do not maneuver if you fight Russian Army and want to live. 

As Was Expected...

 ... once the "great plan" by NATO to invade Kursk oblast was launched, Sumy oblast of 404 became the target itself and in just less than 30 days Russian forces annihilated more HIMARS and other MLRS than in previous year. 

Sumy and area is burning. I spoke with Ania just 20 minutes ago about possible "mistake" of Russian General Staff in Kursk--even if it was, it was at best on a tactical level, albeit the jury is still out on that. But that's what great militaries do--they immediately recover and then... Well, it can be stated today with 100% certainty that NOBODY in NATO, which planned this suicide, could anticipate that Russia will not move any reserves from Donetsk Front to "relieve" Kursk, thus easing the pressure on VSU. It tells you immediately that Pentagon doesn't have a clear picture of SMO even despite its ISR operating freely, hiding behind backs of 404 cannon fodder. I mentioned it before, I repeat it again: rigid, template thinking of people with minimal operational and strategic culture. So, a strategic catastrophe for NATO in 404 unfolded. 

HIMARS Are Having A Very Difficult Time...

 ... everywhere in SMO zone. 

Modern ISR, guys. RUK (Recon-Strike Comlex) in action. Meanwhile, Ray nails it with defining Sullivan and Blinken as "relatively sane"...

... "relatively sane" being a euphemism for cowards. Plus, this is the essence of US "elites"--they only know elections and have no clue what escalation dominance is. The United States has no concept nor experience with this because it fights only weak enemies with the exception of the WW II. Moscow does hold escalation dominance, while Pentagon has no clue about the way Russian Armed Forces accumulate and manage reserves, hence a FUBAR in Kursk and catastrophe elsewhere (Toretsk, Pokrovsk etc.). Strategery, you know.

Another One Bites The Dust...

 ... RUK (Recon-Strike Complex) at work couple of days ago at Kherson axis. 

Three M-270 (with ATACMS or HIMARS) and a lovely secondary detonation of ammo storage. Mr. Iskander is getting now its longer--much-much longer (1000 ++ km) version, just in case. 

Now, I understand that Glenn Diesen worries (rightly so) about possible NATO-Russia clash--the burning ferry with loaded oil at Port Kavkaz does look impressive. But as I stress non-stop--in the end it is COFM (Correlation of Forces and Means) and posture which dictates approach to any kind of war. NATO has neither, trying to hide behind the backs of VSU. NATO simply doesn't have enough of anything. In other words--NATO cannot assemble and predeploy required force to even have a chance against Russia. At least some people in Pentagon understand it. Pathos-ridden rhetoric from West's "elites" (a euphemism for BS) is just that. NATO is effectively de-militarized now. The required FORCE is not there for NATO, period! The best division-size force packed with US and other "volunteers" has been wiped off the face of the earth in ten days in Kursk. 

White House national security spokesman John Kirby said Friday that U.S. officials have been in near-daily contact with Ukrainian counterparts and have made no recent changes to guidance on how U.S. weapons can be used in the Kursk offensive. “They are allowed to use U.S. provided material to defend themselves against Russian aggression. And, as you know, the president allowed them to use U.S. munitions across that border to deal with imminent threats,” Kirby told reporters in Washington. Kirby added that it's unclear how successful Ukraine's operation in Kursk will be over the long term. Russian officials on Friday reported some success in turning back Ukrainian forces in some areas of the Kursk region.

Oh, it is very clear, Mr. "Admiral" Kirby, very clear. 

Something Different.

But very true, nonetheless. 

 

And Why I Am Not Surprised.

In the middle of an amateurish pseudo-operational BS from Michael Koffman of CNA (so called Center for Naval Analysis) or some other Colonel from the US Army to New York Times--normal competent people do not consult this rag which lives out the remnants of its once solid reputation--we find, in a long and meandering BS piece about SMO, this admission:

Ukrainian commanders in Bakhmut said recently that even the presence of U.S.-supplied rocket systems, known as HIMARS, have failed to put much of a dent in the Russian supply chain. That’s a marked change from Ukrainian commanders’ accounts over the summer when the weapons first arrived — suggesting that Russia had adapted to the strikes by better dispersing its ammunition stockpiles.

I am not sure that be that Michael Koffman or whatever the name of the other Colonel is, who "shared" their military wisdom with NYT, are capable to grasp the way Russian Air Defense operates, they simply do not have any experience with that, not to mention the fact that the only thing US military does well is PR. It is impossible to explain to Koffman or any other political "scientist" abusing sinecures in the US "think-tanks" in and around D.C. how real integrated battlefield AD operates and why for it such targets as HIMARS projectiles are typical targets which are no different than, accidentally, genuinely hyper-sonic (M=5.3) Tochka U.  

I get it, Koffman and people in NYT have bills to pay and are "proud" in the most wrong way, can we call it an American "garrulous patriotism" as de Tocqueville defined in in his classic work, but Russian Air Defense operators are not impressed with HIMARS. What Koffman and others should worry about, of course, is the fact that always superior to the West in the combat use of her Air Defense complex, today Russia obtained an incredible combat experience which in terms of AD and ABM systems will only accelerate the widening of already very wide lead over anything West ever produced. In fact, as data (not from Ukrainian "sources") confirms, including videos, even TOR-M2s are now capable of shooting down such targets as Tochka-U. 

But then, of course, another American shitty rag which squandered the remnants of a reputation in the last few years, Time, when taking interview with VSU's Commander General Zaluzhny, quotes this from him:

But Zaluzhny also respected and admired the institutions of his Russian counterparts. In his office, he keeps the collected works of General Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian armed forces, who is 17 years his senior. “I was raised on Russian military doctrine, and I still think that the science of war is all located in Russia,” Zaluzhny says. “I learned from Gerasimov. I read everything he ever wrote … He is the smartest of men, and my expectations of him were enormous.”

Well, he merely confirms what I am writing about for years, corollary to Zaluzhny's statement, the US is, certainly, not well versed in the science of war, especially modern one, but what do I know. Zaluzhny's interview is not accidental--the Russians, who according to US military "experts" suffer huge losses, "lost initiative" and, in general, are about to surrender Moscow, in three days will add more than 100,000 square kilometers and more than 5.5 million people to Russia. I guess, if this is how the "loss of initiative" looks like, then we may only imagine how possession of thereof will look like. But there is a possible, more sinister, reason for this interview--Zelensky's useful life has expired and, in a view of increasingly active operations of Russian Army, the West will try to preserve whatever it can from its project in 404 not least in a feeble attempt to save own face. Zaluzhny can be this figure which could be moved to premier position in 404. I doubt it will make any difference, but desperate times--desperate measures, or... grasping for the last straw.

At this stage and with the results of referendum already pretty much known, UK Defense Ministry as represented by the Chief of General Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin met Russian Military Attache in London, Maxim Elovik, to "improve communications channels between British and Russian militaries to mitigate risks and escalation" (in Russian). Sure, considering who current British Prime Minister is--good idea. I am on record, I feel much safer when I know that Gerasimov and Milley are talking, than when Blinken tries to avoid Lavrov by all means possible. So, all in all, I am not surprised.

A Peculiar Math.

Mr. Burns, CIA Director, gives his "estimates". 

ASPEN, Colorado (Reuters) -The United States estimates that Russian casualties in Ukraine so far have reached around 15,000 killed and perhaps 45,000 wounded, CIA Director William Burns said on Wednesday, adding that Ukraine has also endured significant casualties. Nearly five months since President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Russia's neighbor, its forces are grinding through the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and occupy around a fifth of the country. Burns, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, said those gains have come at great cost.

Burns, who heads an organization which HAS to know, which most of the time is not the case nowadays, heard about this ratio--a very rough one--of one to three of KIAs to wounded during combat and, using his math skills decided to come up with a base number of Russian forces' KIAs and then multiply it by 3. So, 15,000 KIAS x 3 = 45,000 wounded. Sure. The only issue here is that Burns, evidently, doesn't understand how this works in real life and what it takes to provide hospitalization and transportation of those both KIAs and wounded to the rear areas and there is no med-evac activity, even through open sources (remember, OSINT--Open Source Intelligence), which is even remotely commensurate to Burns' claims. 

Yes, there are KIAs and wounded on Russian side, not to mention the fact that the bulk of those also comes from LDNR militias, but if Mr. Burns would be a serious and responsible professional, not an average US political appointee who needs to lie for a living, the real number would have been--estimates only--about 15,000 wounded and, by following this 1 to 3 ratio, about 5,000 KIAs on Russian side. But then again, even the brief look at the American "elites" today tells one everything one needs to know. When even Pentagon begins to express grave concern:

President Biden issued some surprise comments weighing in on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's upcoming Taiwan trip, telling reporters Wednesday that the US military think's it's "not a good idea" for her to visit the island.When asked specifically about the potential trip which days ago began to widely be reported, earning condemnation and a warning of "forceful measures" from China, Biden said, "The military thinks it’s not a good idea right now, but I don’t know what the status of it is.”

Pelosi also wants to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, so, as you can see, the legislative activity in the House is at its peak and this old mummy is getting involved fully into foreign policy without having a clue what she is doing, which is a normal Modus Operandi for Washington. 

In related news, what everyone knows in Russia has been reiterated today (in Russian)--HIMARS are controlled by NATO personnel and the tactics is pretty primitive: "hide" HIMARS rockets behind VSU's salvo of MLRS (such as Smerch or what have you), allow local Russian AD to expend its missiles shooting initial salvo down and then launch HIMARS rockets while Russian AD complexes reload. Well, it is a kindergarten thinking which already was addressed by "portioning" of AD assets in any given locality, reserving missiles for shooting down HIMARS missiles. They are being shot down in large numbers. Even when one considers almost real time targeting provided by the US to VSU, Pentagon doesn't have a concept of modern and effective front line air defense and the only thing which they have going for them is the high mobility of HIMARS which leave the position immediately after the launch. Nothing new, really. In general, this is the extent to which Pentagon realistically can get involved without beginning to lose personnel and assets in Middle East. That is easily arranged. 

Now they want to send combat aircraft to 404.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Air Force is working to decide how best to train Ukraine’s pilots as the embattled nation’s air force looks to modernize. In comments at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado on Wednesday, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall and Chief of Staff Gen. CQ Brown said Ukraine will need to shift its air force away from legacy Russian MiG and Sukhoi fighters and toward more modern Western-made aircraft. With the supply of Russian spare parts for MiGs cut off, Brown said, Ukraine will have to eventually move to other fighters. It remains to be seen which platforms make sense, he said, but there are many possibilities — not just U.S.-made fighters such as the F-15 and F-16, but the Eurofighter, Swedish Gripen and French Rafale could also be options for Ukraine’s air force. “Part of this is understanding where Ukraine wants to go, and how we meet them where they are,” Brown said. “All of our allies and partners have an interest in ensuring Ukraine can provide for its own security.” Later at Aspen, asked why the U.S. doesn’t give Ukraine some of its aging A-10 Warthogs — which the Air Force has long sought to retire — Kendall said it’s “largely up to Ukraine” to decide the aircraft it wants.

Sure, let those arrive to Ukraine, LOL. I am positive there are many Russian pilots of Su-35s and Su-30SM (will omit now Su-57s) and crews of S-400s and S-300V4s who are salivating at the possibility to down a few F-15s or Rafales. Per A-10, it is not even serious, A-10 is a good CAS aircraft, but it is very slow and it never faced anything like S1 Pantsir or Tor M2, let alone Buk-M3. Not to mention first rate air force. But sure. Looks like this Aspen Forum was one huge concentrated fantastical thinking and butt-hurt gathering. 

Meanwhile Ukies and Washington continue to masturbate to Russian mobilization in the piece from Ukie propaganda outlet titled: General mobilization in Russia would mean Putin's failure in Ukraine – Ukraine’s intelligence

According to the official, the Kremlin regime now considers it better to conduct so-called covert mobilization, which does not require the declaration of martial law, as well as recruiting mercenaries. Skibitsky confirmed that Russian losses in Ukraine are significant, but at the same time not critical, since Russia has large mobilization resources. "But we already see the problems they have," he said.

But for some reason this, oh so desired, mobilization doesn't come. I addressed this issue yesterday in my latest video and the unraveling of the guiding myths of America's self-proclaimed global status continues with acceleration and desperation now oozes from every pore of what's left of the contemporary so called governance in the United States. We ain't seen nothing yet.

I Will Be Very Brief.

Spanish newspaper Lavanguardia reports that the West will never supply Ukraine with US AD complexes Patriot "to not provoke Russia". For lay observer this rationale seems sound, but, of course, in the matters of politics in the West which is primarily smoke and mirrors and virtual reality, the main reason is completely different. It is here (in Russian) where Russian MoD demonstrates annihilation of the two launchers of the US supplied HIMARS and also a radar unit of one of the Ukie S-300. 

Patriot has a troubled history but apart from its "effectiveness" being questioned from the times of the First Gulf War, one inevitably is forced to recall a global FUBAR in Saudi Arabia in 2019. The failure against "home made" drones and missiles was so spectacular that one inevitably has to ask the question about how those Patriots will fare against a salvo of 3M14 Kalibr, let alone supersonic P-800 Onyx which also maneuvers if need be. You know the answer. Western weapon systems (together with its "operational art") have already sustained massive reputational losses--enough to recall barely 20% "effectiveness" of much touted wunderwaffe such as Switchblade or Javelins--so, nobody in the West needs a full demonstration by means of physical annihilation of Patriot PAC 3s, likely with NATO's personnel in them, by all kinds of Russian high precision stand-off weapons. And that IS the main reason why Patriots, at least for now, will not appear in Ukraine. Simple as that. So, no muddying waters and spin can hide now a systemic issue in not just tactical and operational, but doctrinal views of the combined West on modern warfare.

Bernhard Did An Excellent Write-up.

On this whole situation with VSU's "victories" and how Western media are beginning to recognize a horrendous truth (for them) behind demolishing of VSU, which at this stage is literally being pummeled into utter submission. Bernhard discusses fighting doctrines of Russia and NATO and notes (correctly):

'Western' doctrine, which is essentially U.S. doctrine, is betting on air supremacy. The enemy's air defenses get destroyed in first few days of the war. After that enemy formations get wiped out by applying a huge amount of aerial bombing against them. Russian doctrine never has believed in air supremacy. Russia itself has excellent air defenses so it knows what it is talking about. To destroy enemy formations Russia applies artillery, lots of it.

He also compares combat organization of the main fighting units of Russian and US armies and, again correctly, arrives to the state-of-the-affairs for VSU. 

Unless the defending forces are fully under armor or extremely well dug in, as they had been for eight years at the Donetsk frontline, they have no hope to hold out against Russian artillery. Since the Russian army broke through the immediate frontline the Ukrainians have lost the protection of fortified dugouts and are on the run.  None of the above is new and it was the reason why I and other could easily predicted that the Ukrainian army would lose the war.

Read the whole thing, it is an excellent write up from Moon of Alabama. 

In related news, as was anticipated, the US decided not to play with fire and the danger of own annihilation and stopped any silly talks about sending HIMARS to 404 and it is all for the better. The US still wants to send some kind of MLRS (maybe even same HIMARS) but with much shorter range munitions. As Dmitry Medvedev noted today: 

«Разумно. Иначе при атаке на наши города Вооруженные силы России исполнили бы свою угрозу и нанесли удары по центрам принятия этих преступных решений. Часть из них находится совсем не в Киеве. Что дальше – объяснять не надо»

Translation: Makes sense. Otherwise, upon attacks on our cities, Russia's Armed Forces would have delivered on their threat to strike these criminal decision making centers. Part of those centers is located absolutely not in Kiev. What would follow--no explanation is needed. 

So, there you go. Meanwhile VSU continues to do what it was doing for the last 8 years--using civilians as human shield an shelling civilian areas of liberated cities and towns in Donbass. In other news, Denmark and Netherlands decided not to pay for Russian gas in Rubles. Sure, no problem.

The threat of cutting off gas supplies, if not being paid in Rubles, is taking another casualty. Russian gas giant Gazprom has announced that it will stop gas supplies to the Netherlands by Wednesday, in a reaction to the refusal by Dutch energy trader GasTerra to pay in rubles.

Evidently, the concept of money and paying for goods and services is still not developed in these two nations at this stage of their historic development, but, I think, in a few centuries they may figure this principle out and whatever will be left of them will join the family of civilized nations. Same goes for the present CIA big honcho William Burns (the US so called "diplomat"), who tries to wax Russia "insiderish" but fails miserably due to an extremely low professionalism of the current US "diplomacy" and "foreign service", so, he triers himself as Putinologist--a euphemism for ignorant US "diplomats" who, as it is normal now, know nothing about Russia. Even after being ambassador to Russia as Burns did.  So, he states:

Half of Washington, D.C., is in the business of analyzing Vladimir Putin’s every word and move these days. But when CIA Director William Burns speaks of the Russian leader, an autocrat waging a brutal war on Ukraine, his words carry unusual weight. Putin is the epitome of a “peculiarly Russian combination of qualities”: “cocky, cranky, aggrieved and insecure,” Burns has written. The Kremlin chief is “an apostle of payback,” Burns has declared.

But even this sophomoric "journalism" from Politico notes:

Burns may be a good Putinologist, but even he didn’t predict how much the Russian leader would scramble the Biden administration’s foreign policy agenda.

I have news for these US "diplomats" and "journos"--there are NO real "Putinologists", let alone good level specialists on Russia, anywhere in D.C. Because there is no US diplomacy as art and as noble profession in principle. Most what US foreign policy establishment, including its "elite" schools produces as its "diplomats" is a grey mass of under-educated ignoramuses who learn absolutely nothing about outside world and the same goes pretty much to any institution in D.C., including CIA. Burns is not an exception. 

It is the clock-work of the US "elite" education and selection mechanism which is completely broken and, as a result, produces people who are utterly unqualified to carry out any tasks related to any actual governance, be it in political, economic, diplomatic or military spheres. So, whenever the phrase such as "but even he" is used nowadays I always smile, "even they" in D.C. drove the United States to the precipice due to their corruption, careerism and lack of any professionalism. May be they should stop trying to be "Putinologists" and concentrate on their immediate professional responsibilities, instead of spewing PR BS through media which are as ignorant and amoral as they are. Nah, not gonna happen...