Tuesday, September 22, 2020

This Is Really Cool.

The work of Air Defense units of S-400, Buk and S-1s against, I think, target missiles (shown in the beginning) RM-75, Mach=4 capable targets. Caucasus-2020 exercises commenced and first videos are being released by Russia's MoD. Military porn at its best.   

I also liked P-800 Oniks (inert, without explosives) of one of Bastions approach to the target, you need to slow video down to appreciate what M=2.5+ on terminal looks like;) 

Enjoy. An innocent fun. 

UPDATE: Arktika is on her way to Arctic Ocean and its ice-cap. (In Russian, but visuals are awesome). 

She is big. The largest ice-breaker in history.

Monday, September 21, 2020

Anyone Thought Otherwise?

 As I pointed out yesterday, Russians will yawn. They did. 

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia sees minimal chances of extending the New START treaty with the United States - their last major nuclear arms pact - as it does not accept conditions set out by Washington, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted as saying on Monday. He spoke came after Marshall Billingslea, the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control, told a Russian newspaper that Moscow must accept a joint agreement with Washington on extending the treaty before the U.S. presidential election in November. "I suspect that after President Trump wins re-election, if Russia has not taken up our offer, that the price of admission, as we would say in the U.S., goes up," Billingslea told Kommersant newspaper in an interview. Ryabkov said that position constituted an ultimatum and lowered the chances of reaching any kind of agreement to extend the deal, which expires in February next year. "We cannot talk in this manner," TASS news agency quoted Ryabkov as saying. Another news agency, RIA, quoted him as saying the chances of a treaty extension were "minimal".

As I say non-stop, unless one rehearses to go out on the stage of the Saturday Night Life for some absurd, and long ago stopped being funny, skit, this whole START "business" doesn't even qualify for a minimally amusing routine. One doesn't talk in ultimatums to the only power on Earth which can turn D.C. into parking lot even without nuclear weapons but these simple skills are beyond the grasp of American "diplomacy". Lack of culture and sophistication in D.C. prevents them from understanding a simple principle which is: ultimatums tell more about the side which issues them, much more and are the first sign of desperation and weakness in a dyadic relations between US and Russia. Russia is not compromising on her arsenal, in fact, something tells me she is holding something back. To be revealed when the time comes.  

Pompeo, in his interview to Bild (in German), declared the creation of anti Nord Stream 2 "coalition". This is not news and Russia is pretty nonchalant about it. Obviously it is all about US LNG, which MUST go to Europe, both to finance US ailing economy and kill any prospects for already barely competitive EU products. It is between Germany and the US. It is all boring. And, really, did anyone think that Russians will react otherwise to ultimatums? I know, I know, history is not a strong point in D.C. but they should really refresh it once in a while. I mean real history, not narratives.

Sunday, September 20, 2020

Russia Steals Everything.

And Jesus Christ was an American and was born in Kalamazoo, MI. It is a well-known fact. So Donald Trump, evidently briefed by his utterly competent and crushingly precise aids, knows now that:

“We have a super duper rocket. I call it super duper because it is 5 times faster than conventional rockets. But Russia got this information from the Obama administration, it kidnapped it, and built its own rocket. But now we have such a (rocket) that is much, much faster.”

Absolutely, and, in fact, Yuri Gagarin was American too as are 3M22 Zircon and Avangard hypersonic system. Here is a video of Vladimir Putin congratulating and honoring a Chief Designer of Avangard system Gerbert Efremov. 

And it was this man, Efremov, revealed to the public for the first time, who responded to Trump's claims. Speaking to Rossiyskaya Gazeta he was straight to the point (in Russian): "We experimented with hypersonic weapons in Soviet times, when Obama was still in his adolescence."

But as we all know, mathematics and physics were also invented in the United States and I am sure Trump will be briefed on this crucial fact shortly. But jokes aside, one can cut US desperation with the knife, this how dense and tense this desperation is. Spinning Bullshit, the only skill US pundits have, can go only so far, then cognitive dissonances, some of them extremely severe, begin their onset and people start experiencing all kinds of psychological and psychiatric disorders. 

There are fields in which the United States will never have advantage over Russia, in the best case scenario for the US, plus there are many fields in which the United States is not a competitor for Russia. Here is one such field:

Obviously a use of such terms as "aggression" is one such sign of a hysteria in the top echelons of American power and soon, even commercial space launches by Russians, including missions to ISS will also be termed as "aggression". We all know, that any loss in any field by the US is always a result of Russia's aggression. Remember B-737 Max and Boeing fvcking things up in the worst possible way? All was a result of Russia aggression. Do you know that commercial aircraft MC-21 is an exhibit A of Russian aggression. Russians are especially aggressive in energy or in Russia's education (that is altogether--a crime against humanity) which in STEM is a direct competitor to the US and even phony university "ratings" do not work anymore. Russian cities are extremely aggressive, because Moscow's and St. Pete's art and culture scene makes NYC look like a fvcking Wanker County fair. Everything is Russian aggression, including, of course, Russian aggression being responsible for US losing every single war in the last 25 years, having no functioning political system, and American elites being represented primarily by morons. 

But the field where Russian aggression reached its peak is the field of weapons, because, in act of criminal Russian aggression, Russia's military history and experience dwarf that of the United States and Russians simply produce better weapons than the US. They have to. As a result the United States is not even a viable competitor in few key military fields ranging from Air Defense Systems to high supersonic and hypersonic missile technologies. They never were for the last 50 years and the lag in these main strike weapons of modern and future war is not just huge--generational, really--it grows. US is desperate to stop advanced weapons' development in Russia, and, in his interview to Russia's ultra-liberal Kommersant (in Russian), Marshall Billingslea wasted 10 minutes of my valuable life time bloviating on the matters of START treaty extension, threatening Russia with new....whatever, and speaking in pseudo-strategic platitudes, which Russia, most likely, will ignore. Why shouldn't she, especially knowing that no discussion on serious matters is possible with the US. Non-agreement-capable, period. BTW, one of the funny features about Billingslea--his original Bachelor's Degree is in...History of Arts.  Get it, boys and girls? His formative humanly and academically years he spent studying useless crap, which provides zero background for any productive activity. 

US desperately needs all Russia's hypersonic weapons to be put under the umbrella of the US "inspections" and a treaty which will afford the US at least hypothetical chance at countering them. This is not going to happen since Russia is not the USSR and Putin is not Gorbachev.  Plus, what is most important, and I already mentioned it--US lag in modern weapon systems is generational. Yes, the United States can still create some advanced enabler technologies such as satellite constellations, advanced combat networks, proceed with advancement of Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC), may still build advanced state-of-the-art platforms such as US submarines, but these are platforms and enablers. They mean little without weapon systems they enable and carry. Some American military porn internet resources already count SM-6 AD missile as a "standard anti-shipping missile" on US Navy's Arleigh Burke-class DDGs. Really? Introduction of yet another "wave" of US and Norwegian subsonic anti-shipping missiles is hailed as some kind of a milestone, which it is not. So what that LRASM/JASSM is capable of EECM? Good ol' P-700 Granit already carried ECCM suites in 1970s.  Every Soviet (forget modern Russian) AD complex starting from Osa-M always had anti-surface attack mode as its reserve function. For lay people this may not sound important, but during 080808 war with Georgia, one of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's small missile ships sunk Georgian missile boat not by its main missile but by salvo from its Air Defense Complex Osa-M

As I am on record non-stop for years, US "defense" (in reality military aggression) issues are not just in technological field, some of the US technology is good. It is in understanding a war for what it is. NO US serviceman even fought in defense of his country, town, family. This is the main, metaphysical, reason why US top brass, once a generation which saw serious war departed, could never grasp an essence of the warfare, because they have no grasp what would happen if they lose not just the war, the US has a great record of that, but what they treasure in life. This is the obstacle which cannot be overcome by inventing some new fighting doctrine or by regurgitating same ol' and beaten to death strategic and operational truisms. One has to start thinking differently but that is precisely what is lacking in the decision-making circles in the US today, where reality and fantasy long ago lost a clear demarcation line between the two. Well, it is inevitable in the country where one of the main voices in defining military policy include such people as a graduate of a History of Arts program or a comic and con-artist. I guess, in the world of fantasy and fakes those skills are sufficient.  

Saturday, September 19, 2020

Sad, Sad News.

One of the last representatives of America's true intellect and knowledge, a gentleman and a real scholar. Stephen Cohen, RIP. I can only refer you all to a profound eulogy by Andrei Raevsky at his blog. 2020 continues with its deadly harvest. 

Dear friends,

It is with immense sadness that I have to report that Stephen F. Cohen passed away yesterday in his home in Manhattan at the age of 81. There are a few media outlets who have already reported this.  Most of them discuss Stephen F. Cohen’s political ideas and his books, which is normal since he was a historian of the Soviet Union.  But I won’t do that here. What I want to say about Cohen is something very different. First, he was a man of immense kindness and humility.  Second, he was a man of total intellectual honesty.  I can’t say that Cohen and I had the same ideas or the same reading of history, though in many cases we did, but here is what I found so beautiful in this man: unlike most of his contemporaries, Cohen was not an ideologue, he did not expect everybody to agree with him, and he himself did not vet people for ideological purity before offering them his friendship. Even though it is impossible to squeeze a man of such immense intellect and honesty into any one single ideological category, I would say that Stephen Cohen was a REAL liberal, in the original, and noble, meaning of this word.

I agree with Andrei (The Saker), we lost a giant. Sad day.

Friday, September 18, 2020

Practical Geoeconomics.

Short news, huge consequences. Ria.Ru reports (in Russian) that largest, gigantic, actually, Venezuelan tanker (320,000 tons) Ayacucho since June 1st is not really Ayacucho nor is Venezuelan anymore. It is now a bearer of Russian flag and is named... (cough, cough) Maxim Gorky. What do ya know! 

As you may expect, stopping and arresting Venezuelan (or, drum roll, Iranian) vessel is easy, the Russian one--there are some practical problems with that, because the whole "arrest" thing may end up at the UN Security Council level plus Russia can arrest something back, because Russia does have an actual navy which feels itself fairly comfortable around some choke points. If shit hits the fan, hopefully not, Russians may even sink a thing or two to make the point clear. 

This is a classic example of practical geoeconomics conducted by a superpower. It is also a material manifestation of Russia's main export which is political, and, by default, economic stability. Nothing really new about it, it is the nature of international relations in which everyone is free to choose a horse to bet on. Smaller, weaker nations look for bigger powerful suitors. As I said, security is an extremely hot commodity nowadays and only very few countries can offer it on the market. Only one will do it in good faith and compromise on price to make it affordable. Simple as that. Nothing personal, just business.

Thursday, September 17, 2020

Well, Well, Well.

 Evidently, something IS being done about it. About time. 

WASHINGTON — Attorney General William Barr told federal prosecutors in a call last week that they should consider charging rioters and others who committed violent crimes at protests in recent months with sedition, according to two people familiar with the call. The highly unusual suggestion to charge people with insurrection against lawful authority alarmed some on the call, which included U.S. attorneys around the country, said the people, who described Barr’s comments on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

Evidently, among such people are not just foot "soldiers" of anarchy controlled by DNC and people who are closely allied with them, but some "elite" members of the club, such as Seattle's mayor Durkan (Russians smile at her second name). I see no reason for sedition charges not to be brought against Washington State's governor Jay Inslee, not to mention a whole political top of the state of Oregon. While at it, looking at DNC and many Democrats of high profile at Capitol Hill could also be a good idea. How about starting with Pelosi? 

I abhor GOP, but at this stage they are situational allies and I will vote for Trump this elections. Yes, I'll hold my nose, but it is a necessary evil. Something tells me that Trump may win in a landslide and I long ago stopped paying attention to any "polls" produced by US "pollsters". It is akin to believing economic news from Wall Street. So, here it is, some movement has started on part of forces of at least some order. Trump also found time to deal with "critical race theory"--a pseudo-scientific BS concocted at humanities and law departments in Ivy League schools for giving a corrupt grievance industry an ideological rationale for milking America's white population for money and turning them into the cowardly faceless mass of cucks. But that should be a separate post on this issue--death of America's cognitive faculties and collapse of the American education across the board. Hell, my new book touches on this topic. The only question now is IF, or when, will we hear anything from Durham's investigation into the coup perpetrated by Obama and HRC's operatives and if anyone of consequence goes behind bars. It is a finish stretch before elections--that's the best time to reveal some facts. But as I said not for once--don't hold your breath.

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

I Couldn't Resist;))

I simply couldn't, no matter how I tried. Russians are pretty good with memes and here is one about Navalny and his "tests". I know it is crude but it is so true. 

The text reads: I am asking you, is it Navalny's morning or evening stool

As you all know, Bundeswehr which is dealing with Navalny's testing now (LOL) classified his tests, that means it classified Navalny's urine and stool. Russians are having a field day, as you might expect. Germany looks utterly idiotic, to put it politely.   

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Gas Station Masquerading As A Country (c).

Obviously, John McCain could never eat his words since he is dead (like really-really dead), but among some things Russia produces which are absolutely without equals in the world are nuclear ice-breakers. These are extremely complex ships and if that hasn't been bad enough (for some), Russia is simply in a league of her own when it comes to Arctic research and maintaining a unique, unrivaled fleet of ice-breakers, especially nuclear ones. Here is a "Test Drive" (a remote Russian analogue of the Top Gear) which gets to "test-drive" Russia's newest nuclear ice-breaker of pr. 22220 Arktika. This 35,000 tons of displacement (full) mastodon is shown in some (only some, a lot of it is classified) detail by two rowdy Russian nerds. And, although, whole 35 minutes of this show are in Russian, even non-Russian speakers may appreciate what was shown. Hint: reactor compartment is not shown (for obvious reasons) as are not shown some control rooms. And even those which are shown are allowed to be shown from some specific angle. So, here it is: 81,000 horsepower floating Arctic wonder. 
But I want to live to see, of course, a giant Lider-class nuclear ice-breaker. If Arktika is huge (and she is huge), Lider will simply dwarf already gigantic Arktika and her sister-ships. This, guys, is real hi-tech and a machinery requiring highest possible, as in the very top, industrial, engineering and manufacturing expertise. Not bad for a gas-station. So, disregard Russian language and enjoy the show.  

Monday, September 14, 2020


Thanks to Arioch, who pointed this piece of news out, I am still trying to get my jaw off the floor. There are many instances of Russians being extremely industrious and creative when designing weapons but this one is close to the very top when describing Russian, how to put it politely, unconventional approach to defense. As the Co-Director of Russian-Indian Joint Venture Brahmos Alexander Maksichev told Ria today (in Russian) the plan for turning Brahmos cruise missile, known primarily for its anti-shipping role, into air-to-air missile to specifically shoot down enemy's AWACS aircraft has been adopted. The first reaction, of course, to this is WTF. Brahmos missile is an export version of P-800 Oniks (aka Yakhont) stand-off high supersonic weapon, with some bells and whistles for some specific India's requirements added to it and it is also a foundation for India's hypersonic program. 

Recently, India tested Brahmos  to 800-kilometer range and that may give us some clue on what is going on here. 400 kilometer range air-to-air missiles are nothing new such as Russian KS-172 which is in serial production and is called anti-AWACS missile for a reason. But since Indian SU-30s are designed specifically to carry Brahmos missiles, one can totally see a possibly 600-800 kilometer range M=3.5 missile to be used against AWACS when proper targeting is provided. Notable, on these distances AWACS wouldn't even know what his it. Moreover, a smaller version of such Brahmos doesn't need a rather massive 300 kilogram warhead of its anti-shipping variant which automatically avails an additional volume for fuel. Also, a complex electronics required for control of anti-shipping version of Brahmos, including its very complex flight profile, especially on terminal, should also reduce missile's weight in air-to-air version. Finally, the drag at the heights of few kilometers at which most AWACS operate is radically reduced when compared to a low (sea-skimming) profile for anti-ship versions. 

The question, thus, is next--who, or, rather, what will provide such a targeting. Well, it is 2020, folks, not 1980 and things changed rather dramatically and a variety of means exists today to make such targeting possible especially since most air-to-air missiles are shoot-and-forget systems which need only initial position of target, plus different variants of CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability) exist in advanced militaries. It is also obvious that such a Brahmos will have an active radar seeker with a good range which allows missile to conduct final (terminal) refined search and lock on a target. I'm telling ya, this whole thing is getting out of control, next thing you know--hypersonic missiles with the ranges in thousands kilometers... oh, wait! Wink, wink. It is jungle out there, folks, I'm telling you.   

Sunday, September 13, 2020

Lavrov Verbatim.

Here is he in Russian:
Translation:  We are used to sanctions. A principle geopolitical reaction is that we develop a conviction that our Western partners are unreliable, including, sadly, members of European Union."

He elaborated further on Russia using "safety net" when dealing with Europe and this safety net, as one might have expected, includes but is not limited to, is tying Russia's European gas pipe-lines to her East-bound pipe-line systems. I mentioned it already several times before--Russia now views Europe as a secondary energy market and Lavrov's statements today are pretty explicit in terms of saying to Europe to go and fvck itself. Russia today can afford that. In fact, come to think about it, US devouring EU plays into Russia's hands. Many in the West still cannot grasp a simple fact that pipelines such as NS2 are not crucial for Russia anymore. They are, however, crucial to Europe, but EU is on a straight path to economic suicide and one does not negotiate with a patient of asylum. 

After that Lavrov delivered a knockout blow:
"Без реакции это оставлять нельзя. Это, во-первых, неправильно, с точки зрения законов дипломатии. Во-вторых, мы хотим просто ограничить негативное влияние различных западных структур и государств и многочисленных так называемых                                     неправительственных организаций на те планы, которые существуют в нашей стране, которые существуют у наших союзников"  
Translation: We cannot leave this (sanctions) without reaction. First, it is incorrect from the point of view of diplomacy. Secondly, we simply want to limit a negative influence of various western structures and states, and numerous NGOs on those plans which exist in our country and our allies. 

What are those plans, you may ask? Look at Russia, from aviation, to space, to high power gas turbines, to shipbuilding--Russia was in import-substitution and localization (re-industrialization) mode for years now and she does it as if there is no tomorrow. Rightly so. I guess, many NGOs, companies and other "structures" will be thrown out of Russia now--long overdue. I know reaction among majority of Russians was "finally". Russia is parting her ways with EU. All this is for:
Translation: In other words, to provide for ourselves for all possibilities, if the EU remains on its negative destructive positions, to be independent from its whims and that we can ensure our own autonomous development, as well as in partnership with those who are ready to cooperate on equal basis and mutual respect.   

I am on record for years that talking to Europeans is useless, Europe has no real international subjectivity and is in full blown decline mode which is irreversible. Something "clicked" in Kremlin and I have an idea what. The preparation for this "click" was happening for years now and only blind couldn't see the end result of it. Strategic ramifications for statements made on this level are gigantic and it all comes down to Russia having enough wherewithal to abandon EU to the US, which will make sure that it is not competitive with its suicidal energy policies. But we don't see the whole game yet, what is clear is that some new chapter is being written in Russia. Germany should prepare now for giving some explanations about Navalny and those better be a really damn good ones, which Russia knows with absolute guarantee Germany doesn't have.What a lovely Sunday. In related news, wink, wink...
Why this news are important? Well, because not only Russia now herself produces high powered gas turbines completely on her own, but because localization of 100% was agreed upon by GE (in Russian) and, as Russians point out, Siemens suddenly (yes, in the last two days) gets not only extremely stiff competition from Russians themselves but from GE, which is only happy to work with Russia (in Russian).  I told ya, Russia is a hot commodity and is not cheap, not at all. Miss a step and you are gone. But then again, it is EU's business what they decide to do, Russia is too busy developing herself. 

Saturday, September 12, 2020

Red Stratocasters.

Somehow it takes you back almost too realistically, because of the immensely powerful sound stamp which was and is absolutely unique and unmistakable . When music was really good. 
Hank Marvin of The Shadows had the first EVER American Stratocaster in Great Britain--I believe it was Cliff Richard who paid something like 250 Pounds in 1958 for this red Strat (huge sum of money then). Boy, are we glad he did. 
Music of Shadows. It reached everywhere...

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Russians Are Insulted, LOL.

They even reported that in Ria.ru (in Russian). I would be offended too. It is one thing when USAF paints its F-15 or F-16 of "aggressor squadrons" in RuAF colors, but painting F-35 and calling it a Russian Air Force combat aircraft? This is insulting. 
What kind of Russian aircraft should this F-35 imitate? SU-30SM, SU-35C? More like Il-2 or Yak-9, maybe MiG-15? Russians are livid, at least F-15 or F-16 are good aircraft. But the worst is, of course, sticking SU-57 livery on F-35 flying brick. That is an absolute no-no. 
On the other hand, it is, probably, the only chance for F-35 to realize its dream to be a world-class combat aircraft and turn and burn with the best of them--to pretend to be the one. In related news, all modern Russian combat aircraft ranging from SU-30 to SU-57 are netcentric capable machines, incorporating latest in data-sensor fusion and advanced sensor suite. Russians do it differently. Russian Air Force light attack--fighter--trainer Yak-130 has, literally, presets for emulating very closely type of flying by F-16, F-18 etc. 
I don't know if it has presets for F-35.  I am not sure it will be happy with those, wink-wink.

Wednesday, September 9, 2020

Hm, What Does It Look Like.

I seem unable to put my finger on it. China moved her strategic intercontinental deterrent close to Russia's borders, under the umbrella of Russia's own Missile Attack Early warning System (SPRN), while Russia helps China build her own. China constantly trains with Russian Armed Forces, including massive military exercise such as Vostok-2018. Now, China just confirmed her participation in the Caucuses (Kavkaz) 2020 Strategic Command-Staff exercises (in Russian). That looks awfully like a serious strategic military alliance, if one asks me. Altogether, nine foreign countries will take part in this exercise. India and Azerbaijan have declined, while Russia's General Staff will conduct exercises far from Western borders, not to worry "neighbors" too much. You know, aggressive Russkies, bunch of Ivans just dreaming to invade Baltic shit... I mean highly developed EU nations (wink, wink). So, you get my drift. 

So, expect a lot of shit to be blown up, many missiles, aircraft, tanks, helos--the works. I guess, that will provide, yet again, a good number of excellent visuals and, as you know, nowadays those visuals play a huge propaganda and even deterrent role. Chinese, obviously, like these exercises very much. Who wouldn't.

Remember This Guy;)

 You know, Star Wars emotional soy-boy? 

Of course, that was me today, LOL! And you know why, because they finally released the trailer today. Hollywood is 95% shit, but even slightly "woked" Dune--Dr. Kynes, played in Lynch's Dune by incomparable late Max von Sydow, is played by a black female actress--comes across well, from what I saw. So, here it comes:
The most anticipated movie probably in a decade. Looks good, so far. Reference to Pink Floyd is also good. At least something to look forward to.

Story, Never-Ending Story (c).

Ah, so now we hear... the same ol' song. 
He also goes as far as to predict WW II level loses for USAF against peers. This is really a classic "cry wolf" situation because Pentagon inflated threats so many times that when, actually, the statement has a ring of truth to it, few will publicly aknowledge its merit. USAF, of course, still blows the smoke up out asses because what the USAF wants is to fight some third-tier opponent with grossly inferior air-force in order to make such statements (famous "analyst" Mizokami does it for them):
The Air Force has essentially been the supreme air force on the planet since 1991. The destruction of the Yugoslav Air Force in 1999 marked the beginning of more than 20 years of virtually uncontested air operations for the service lasting to this day. Since then, combat operations over Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, and elsewhere have largely been uncontested. 
For starters, Mizokami mixed two different things. "Uncontested" merely meant that the US was and is bombing the shit out of countries which didn't have viable air forces to start with. Yugoslav Air Force was barely a factor in NATO's gang-rape of Serbia, which didn't prevent the US from threatening Russia trying to ensure that no S-300 AD complexes ever made it to Serbia. Moreover, in Syria the USAF is contested in a sense that Russia's VKS guard vast territories of Syria from the US control. Russia closes her eyes mostly on Israel's operations against Iranian assets there. The decision is purely political and underscores an immense complexity of politics in the Middle East. Lastly, the USAF met a proper peer in a proper, classic, air-to-air combat only in Korean War against Soviet 64th Fighter Corps and it was an unpleasant account for USAF. I do not include Vietnam here, but even there Vietnamese gave a good account of themselves in the air, while making sure that Air Defense becomes a more complex affair than merely AAA and dogfights. They, with the help of the USSR, surely succeeded. 

Today we are deep inside Real Revolution in Military Affairs where the USAF faces insurmountable barrier of advanced technologies and operational concepts which make all, grossly backward, views on the air-war as merely a contest between two opposing air forces as relevant to reality on the ground, or in the air, for that matter, as having a crank-shaft for 2020 Toyota Camry or Chevrolet Camaro as means of starting the engine. It is good that Charles Brown acknowledges possible losses for USAF in the modern peer-to-peer war, but as Russians say--best air defense is our tanks at enemy's airfields. Russia is not going to be sending tanks to take Rammstein or whatever forward jump air strips may be chosen in case the US and NATO want to commit physical suicide, but modern air war, even before any aircraft reaches the edges of weapons' release, which in itself a dubious proposition, will pretty much have no airfields to come back to, nor, very possible, countries from which any attempts may be made against Russia or, for that matter, China. 

Reality of modern air war is such that every single NATO aircraft will be tracked the moment it takes off from any field in Europe, in fact, many will be tracked while at the runway getting ready to take off, the first wave of counter-strike will be in the air shortly after that and even before those aircraft are properly airborne things will start happening which USAF never encountered before, ranging from great degrading, or complete shut-down, of communications to long-range EW, to disabling GPS and the list is too long to continue. And this is before anything happens at all. USAF never in its history operated in the environment like that and the remedy it suggests is, oh, boy...
How will the Air Force do this? Drones, drones, and more drones. Manned military aviation has been in a death spiral for some time. Technological complexity leads to increasingly sophisticated aircraft that require more time and money to develop. As a result, planes like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter require two decades to develop, cost $90 million each, and require months to build. The result is a smaller air force where even brand-new fighter jets feature 20-year-old technology, which isn't capable of making up for World War II-style losses.
I am having a... facepalm. A real drone, capable of any real military impact while carrying out whatever mission: strike, recon, air-to-air etc. will still be subjected, in the war against peer (Russia and China), to the same set of threats and counter-measures, which will either mitigate their impact or derail drones' mission altogether, unless it is a drone which is...well..expensive and extremely valuable, which brings us all back to the square one. The United States, as Andrei Raevsky once succinctly observed, can not fight wars on cheap, period. In fact, the ratios of US military technology costs relative to the same by peers continue to grow across the board for the United States. This is not a good indicator at all, for ANY military technology the United States procures or is about to. Same applies to drones. The world changed and any most "advanced" technologies the US tries to develop and procure are already obsolete the moment they leave manufacturing floor. 

Without understanding of modern peer-to-peer conflict as a whole, as a vertical engagement from a strategic down to tactical levels, with all forces involved in it and interacting constantly across modern battle-space, all this silly talk is just...well, silly. At least RAND's big air operations honcho understands that:
Well, good that he at least understands that. As per "aggression" tropes, as I say non-stop: it so tired, it is so contrived and its really so rich coming from people whose actual combat score against peaceful weddings exceeds that against competent and determined air forces as of lately, that one has to simply dismiss this BS and admit that at this stage US military simply cannot adapt and develop a viable fighting doctrine and technology to fight serious adversary capable of rearranging stones, even without any nuclear weapons, anywhere in the world. In related news, Boeing wants at least 20% of its labor force to be black, while Hollywood issued new guide-lines for Oscars on inclusion (wokeness, that is). What can possibly go wrong? s/ 

It Is A Tired Routine....

 It is also ultimately contrived and, inevitably, false. Here is the deal: 
This routine is tired, and if McConville thinks that score-cards aren't being filled, he better refer to his  West Point's history class to refresh when was the last time the United States really "gone to combat" to defend Chicago from being overtaken by hordes of barbarians, or what was that deal with famous Battle of Phoenix, Arizona where hundreds of thousands of "sons and daughters" of this land died defending this large urban center in a desert from bombardments and attacks by enemy aviation and tank armies. Hm. I am on record: NO American soldier fought in defense of the United States in modern history--zero, all American military deaths happened in the lands which, when mentioned as a clear and present danger to the American "security", would incite (and they did) a Homeric laughter in any company where one didn't spend last 50 years sleeping under the stone and has at least a half-year of basic military training. 

Yet, they continue to appeal to this simulacrum of America's "national security", most of which is built around a whole host, not just one, of false premises, delusions and sheer economic interest and greed. I am sure the officer of McConville's rank and billet heard about geoeconomics. I, somewhat, empathize with him--after all, he is just a grunt, very high-positioned, but grunt nonetheless and he has to follow orders. In fact, he may be even a very decent man, who knows. But he also has to rationalize, somehow, America's rampage which saw millions upon millions of civilians killed, maimed, displaced, countries devastated and all in a time span of some shitty half-a-century--an instant in historic terms. All in the name of America's "national security", or democracy, or human rights or whatever is the fad. At least 50 years ago one could BS others about Soviet "menace", today it is China, Iran, Venezuela, Russia and the list goes on, and on, and on. And yes, one can lie to oneself and remain in denial for only so long, until cold hard facts of history, geopolitics and warfare begin to catch with one. I do not envy those who will face them and will have enough courage to judge things on the merit--that will be hard, very hard. But for now, the circus must go on and all hollow meaningless invocations delivered with proper conviction and pathos. And yes, there is a shitload of "military leaders" who want to fight wars, preferably not with peer, since it may interfere with their plans on having hefty sinecures on boards of all kinds military-industrial corporations and think-tanks which prompt those. 

My new book is literally writing itself. I also was browsing few days ago Youtube and stumbled on this conversation by Stephen Walt, a notable "defensive realist" in US foreign policy academe.

What is remarkable about this video, though, is the fact of how, while Walt narrates, correctly, the events, he avoids almost completely a serious review of the causes of what he himself defines as failures by "US Foreign Policy Elite". Yes, "elite"; somebody somewhere (and we know many of their names and ranks) were moved by way more than mere "national interests" of the United States--do they even know what those are--and those motives and impetuses had a lot to do with greed, corruption, malfeasance and sheer ambition of mediocrities across the board--from political leadership, to intelligence, to military--who long ago betrayed not only their own country, but even the sense of self-preservation. No amount of emotional appeals can hide this truth. Especially when Trump plans to withdraw more troops from Iraq but, BUT...  
Goodness, gracious...

Sunday, September 6, 2020

Worth Thousand Words.

It it sad, but it is also hilarious. A video is worth a thousand words. Serbia's President Vucic is being had (together with Serbia) in every hole. This video is already making rounds and poor Masha Zaharova was forced (Russians usually keep their cool under most circumstances) to clarify after she posted this in her Facebook. Serbs were incensed, probably because of this being true, and video is hilarious and proves that it is true. 

Well, as I say non-stop, you cannot save people from themselves. In the end, one is ultimately responsible for choices one makes. Saker posted a good write up on this whole bizarre affair at his blog and I suggest you acquaint yourself with this excellent guest analysis.

In related news, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kuleba concluded that this was Ukraine which brought civilization to Russia. We know that Ukraine is run from D.C. and Brussels (in different proportions, I don't care to calculate) and that Ukrainian "elites", while cruder and dumber are still a reflection of say, America's "elites", which are also crude and dumb and installed own likeness, but the point is that huge percentage of Ukrainian population, including Russian-speakers shares this point of view. That explains, yet again, why not only Russia didn't go into Ukraine in 2014 but why iron curtain between Russia and Ukraine is ultimately required, including removal of many seasonal Ukrainian workers from Russia and blocking their return. The issue is not only of some of them being SBU assets, for that there is FSB, but with the overall virus of Ukrainian insanity and perfidy which needs to be contained outside Russia's borders. As I repeat ad nauseam--Ukraine did happen as a political nation and nothing could, or should, be done about it. Russians and Ukrainians are, indeed, different and that is all for the better. Europe has plenty of strawberry farms and toilet bowls needing tending to and Ukraine fits perfectly to this function. In the end, there is always Canada, where they love svidomys. 

Meanwhile, Pentagon issued a report to US Congress on China's military capability. You all know my attitude to Pentagon's "analysis", plus you know that I am not a Sinophile by any stretch of imagination--I do not even pretend to be a specialist in China--but something tells me that D.C. long ago lost any touch with the reality and as historic record shows, as Patrick Armstrong observed, the US is a slower learner in matters of real war. I will have to endure digging into all those pages of data to have my opinion on the issue Interesting still to read between the lines in such kind of reports.

Friday, September 4, 2020

US Public "Education".

Quotation marks are on purpose and don't expect me to say anything new what hasn't been said before. James Kunstler wrote today a piece on the "decline" (it is actually an implosion) of US education. He writes, justifiably, sarcastically about the while scam of US university (higher that is) ed. 
Well, most modern "fields of study" in the humanities field are a complete scam and have a negative (not just zero) academic value which subtracts from already feeble set of skills of psychologically unstable but sanctimonious, nonetheless, legions of young people with applicable professional skills of a birthday party pony for a kindergarten girl, let's not go into the evaluating the number of prefabricated ass-holes among them who will never become anything but losers incapable of self-reflection. And here is THE issue: yes, one needs to be broadly educated and language and literature are an absolute must, but whatever one thinks on localism and getting back to roots, which I support wholeheartedly, let's be honest--one needs people who know how to build machines. No machines, no survival, period. 

I am not going to dwell too much on the "level" of STEM in American public schools. Unless we are talk about some fairly exclusive schools, real STEM education on the level of K-12 in the US is basically non-existent. I am not talking about Khan Academy which could be a good primer for kids who actually want to learn, but the issue is much deeper--it is the whole structure, approach to those crucial years, usually between 7th and 12th grades which lay down the foundation for any true talent to emerge and be ready to progress to become truly productive in the field which provides for true national competitiveness. One needs an environment saturated with sounds and symbols of classic math, physics and chemistry. US public school couldn't provide that for the last 40 years, now--it is over. Key interaction in those subjects both between students and competent teacher and students are already being removed, and this is just the tip of an iceberg.  

Here is an example from Khan Academy on simplest trig. identities. 

They are filthy simple and are not a nightmare for any student who actually, unknowingly, should have been ready for that in 7-8th grade when studying (that's the point--if they studied) basic forms of factoring which simply has to be, in the end, memorized, such as square of the difference/sum and difference of squares etc. But this is not how factoring is taught in the US. And then kids, even a well performing kids, encounter this (which is a regular fodder for entrance exams in Russia for any decent STEM) and implode:
These are really easy things, but they are easy when they are taught:
1) systematically with ramping up complexity;
2) when students constantly are reminded on WHY they need this both for:
  a) future professional activity;
  b) for development of synapses which are crucial. 
This has never been done on a systematic level in the US and instead of generation of people who know that knowledge is a hard labor and who want to create, we all have got the armies of "free thinkers" and poets, and Queer Studies majors, who constitute the core of (stealing from Kunstler) Maoist crowds attacking, on DNC buck and with its guidance, every single pillar on which civilization rests. You say trigonometric equations and ANTIFA debauchery are not connected? Think twice: differential equations or theoretical mechanics are hard, Queer Studies and Feminism are easy--hence the free time for rioting. Of course, Mohamed Atta example could be used as an exception, after all the dude was an excellent engineer, but we are talking about trends, not narrow particulars or separate data points. 
So, here is my point--what is happening in the US today is, of course, a manifestation of a critical phase of liberalism's collapse and, with it, of the economic and ideological structure on which it relied. But let's not forget, that the change is being moved by people and, in American case, very ignorant and badly educated people. Moreover, American BLM-ANTIFA cabal is an uprising of Kreakls. Recall who those are. It is a "revolution" of lumpen masses who are "not essential" and, in fact, dangerous. Looks like taking out of trash started, with federal agents disposing of an ass-hole who murdered Trump supporter in Portland. Bypassing corrupt DAs is also a great idea. Finally, something is being done. In related news, however, good public schools mean this: 
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's "Sputnik-V" COVID-19 vaccine produced an antibody response in all participants in early-stage trials, according to results published on Friday by The Lancet medical journal that were hailed by Moscow as an answer to its critics. The results of the two trials, conducted in June-July this year and involving 76 participants, showed 100% of participants developing antibodies to the new coronavirus and no serious side effects, The Lancet said. Russia licensed the two-shot jab for domestic use in August, the first country to do so and before any data had been published or a large-scale trial begun.
You see, very simple--stay in school, study hard and Lancet will write about you. Develop your synapses and see the purpose in life. Just some thoughts for Friday evening. I will try to finish a large chapter for my new book tomorrow.

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

I Am Too Lazy...

To comment on the cretins who run Germany, so I re-post here Bernhard's excellent write-up on this Navalny guy, who, as was expected by many is worth more dead, or, rather, undead for now, than alive for the West. Navalny is a classic case of a used condom and all this circus has been predicted the moment the dude got, most likely, hypoglycemia (he was on a diet and drinking moonshine is not good) or, less likely but still possible, got spiked by one of his "allies". 
Read the whole thing at Moon of Alabama site, I cannot emphasize enough how predictable all this is. It is also downright funny and boring. Sanctions, please. LOL.

Saturday, August 29, 2020

Zircon, Again.

The beauty of such forums as Army-2020 that they are used also as a platform for signing new contracts and to reveal new info on weapon systems coming into production. New details emerge all the time and as TASS reports (in Russian) latest info on 3M22 Zircon testing is that the new test is planned this coming September and Admiral Gorshkov will be launching a salvo. After this pretty mundane info TASS divulged that more than 10 launches at sea targets has been conducted between 2015 and 2018 which gives pretty good idea about the dynamics of the development of this weapon and removes any speculations--largely from the Western "analytical" (euphemism for BS narrative mongers) organizations and Russia's very own fanboys--on the nature and capabilities of this missile. Zircon, same as Kinzhal, is a universal missile capable of both anti-shipping and land-attack modes at velocities exceeding M=9. I know, there is so much butt-hurt in the West, especially in D.C., but this cannot be helped--it is what it is. 

In the news which sort of got drowned among all this political noise, revealing of a funny Russian missiles Germes went almost unnoticed, but professionals really took a note (in Russian). This shaitan weapon flies to 100 kilometers range with almost hyper-sonic speed, has its own targeting swarm of drones and rumor has it even an active seeker, that is "shoot-and-forget" weapon. Well, it is shoot and forget with passive IR guidance anyway. Albeit officially it is semi-active guidance on the terminal. This is... drum roll... an anti-tank missile. 
As tests revealed it takes one missile to finish off any tank. Here is your mathematical expectation, Omega=1. One can only imagine the effect such a system can have on any tank force getting ready to deploy to the front line, considering the fact that CEP for this missile when launching to a maximum range of 100 kilometers is 50 centimeters, that is roughly 20 inches. With its speed of M=4+, good luck intercepting it. I am telling you, this signal processing thingy develops with an insane speed. Again, Real Revolution in Military Affairs as it unfolds in a front of our very own eyes. Can you imagine what is still in the secret labs or on drawing boards in Russia? We may only speculate. Ah, yes, Germes-A can also be installed on aircraft ranging from attack helicopters to attack fixed wing. It is already in service, was used in Syria, and, if that wasn't bad enough, this thing can shoot down aircraft. Can you imagine modernization potential for this weapon? 

Why Turkish SOM, which is a cruise missile--and you guessed it, subsonic--was bundled together with Germes beats me completely, two absolutely different weapons. Even Israeli "analog" is not even in the same league and, as you may have guessed it, subsonic. Speed decides the issue, range too, and the West has nothing comparable. I can only reiterate with quoting, again, Douglas Macgregor.
Yep, a real war is not Hollywood and I don't think, in fact I am 100% positive, the United States (forget about pathetic Europe) is simply not ready and will not be for it and that is the danger, of which I speak for years. But this is a separate topic.       

Friday, August 28, 2020

Two Can Play The Game.

I write books (the third one is being written now) on a conflict being usually an affair between the two, at least. One has to have counter-part to have a conflict. The moment BS by Axe and Dismukes "hit the waves", people who still have some cognitive faculties going for them started to react. I wrote couple things, now Caitlin Johnstone from Australia has a word. A reasonable one. Caitlin became famous after her famous Please, Just Fucking Die Already, when addressing this to late John McCain. One may argue with a style, it is not ethical, really, to wish somebody to "fucking die", but there was very little doubt that late McCain was very close to a definition of a war criminal and insane warmonger, so I leave it just at that. 

Johnstone wrote today a good piece on RT. She writes: 
Forbes has published two back-to-back articles about the analysis of retired Navy captain and political scientist Bradford Dismukes titled 'To Defeat China In War, Strangle Its Economy' and 'If Russia Invades Europe, NATO Could Sweep The Seas Of Russian Merchant Ships.' The articles were authored by a man named David Axe, who is my new favorite small-time war propagandist because he’s so desperate to be recognized for his imperialist stenography that he often approaches his spin jobs in an informatively unskillful and ham-fisted way. The best one I’ve found so far is this 2013 piece about the time he spent with the “rebels” of Syria, who he takes great pains to assure us are not terrorists or extremists but brave freedom fighters who’d successfully “liberated” large swathes of Syrian territory.
And, in general, the piece is good. I do disagree, however, with "strangling" strategy because to strangle China is a massive task especially when she has such an ally as Russia guarding China's rear, literally and by providing necessary resources. Those resources are enough to keep China in the game even if the US Navy will decide to disrupt Chinese SLOCs in Indian Ocean. This, for now, US Navy can do. It will make Chinese uncomfortable but I doubt it will have serious influence on Chinese posture. And here is a funny fact. Today, Russian pacific Fleet held exercises in Alaska's vicinity with one of the pr. 949A Oscar-II SSGNs Omsk deliberately surfacing at Bering Sea after launching her SS-N-19 Granit (Shipwreck) missiles. Missile Cruiser Varyag also launched her Voulcans and the video of that got into circulation from Ria (in Russian). That's the signal and it is a serious one--Ocean Shield naval exercise. As I always say, two can play the game and, as was expected, there were some news from Army-2020 regarding specifically this topic of "strategic ASW" and submarine operations in the 21st century. 

As TASS reports from Army-2020, Defense Ministry sources confirmed that starting from already laid down improved pr.885M SSGNs Voronezh and Vladivostok, subs of this type will be armed with advanced Kalibr (3M14) land attack missiles with the range of more that 4,000 kilometers (in Russian). For professional this means only one thing--"strategic ASW" becomes just a fancy term for sale on Capitol Hill and if current 3M14 with the range of 2,500 kilometers was bad enough, new range of 4,500 kilometers makes the area which will be required to be searched a teeny-weeny  3.14 x 4,500^2 which is around 63.5 million square kilometers--good luck for David Axe or Mr. Dismukes calculating required force and required operational sweep to get even to moderately acceptable probabilities (can we say 50-50?) of detection in trying to prevent a salvo at the mainland USA. They will need couple more navies of present size of US Navy to have at least some shot at detection or reaction to Flaming Datum. 

Now, the main question is: will other subs receive updated Kalibrs? The answer is really simple--why not. In fact, it is highly likely. Just to demonstrate what it all means one just needs to take a look at the map. Yes, then comes this funny question--forget Zircons and other hypersonic weapons--are we in the age of anti-ship missiles with ranges counted not in hundreds but thousands of kilometers? Absolutely. X-32 (1,000+ km), Kinzhal (2,000 km), Zircon (1,000 km) are already in service or in IOC. What's next, ASM with 3,000 kilometer range? Absolutely. This is the reality of the Real Revolution in Military Affairs and it completely rewrites tactical, operational and strategic manuals and directives. It completely redefines naval (and other three domains) warfare and don't tell me that I didn't warn you. Good luck with "blockade" of China, let alone Russia.   

Thursday, August 27, 2020

Is There Something In The Water?

Because one has to wonder why so many Russian Navy-related publications in a short period in the US media. It is one thing when some ignoramus such as David Axe writes all kind of Clanciesque drivel, totally another when retired Captain of US Naval Reserve and an intelligence "professional" Bradford Dismukes who marked his "presence" in 1979 by editing some monograph titled Soviet Naval Diplomacy, which, I am sure, had about the same academic "impact" as another similar fantasy by retired admiral Robert Hanks titled The Unnoticed Challenge: Soviet Maritime Strategy and the Global Choke Points. Pretty much same drivel based on wrong assumptions and very wrong intelligence about Soviet Union on general and the Soviet Navy in particular. Enter Summer of 2020. 

First, Dismukes publishes a meandering piece in Naval war College Review where he bloviates on the issue of a "strategic ASW" which is a pain in the ass issue because, while classic mathematics of the ASW didn't change much, weapons and platforms which carry these weapons did. With this change came reconfiguration of the battle-space for subs, which, of course, changes things on operational level. Well, on a strategic one too. This new reality, however, did not deter Dismukes who arrives to a very peculiar conclusion in his piece in NWCR. While lamenting, correctly, the failure of US "intelligence" on Soviet Navy (what's new?) and its intentions, he states:
Today’s planning for the wartime security of lines of communication in the North Atlantic shows a strong continuity with that of the Cold War, expressed in historical metaphor redolent of that continuity. The mission statement of the new NATO Joint Force Command in Norfolk includes that the command will “help protect sea lines of communication between North America and Europe, in a ‘Fourth Battle of the Atlantic.’” Recent comments by senior Navy officials have made clear that, if there should be a “Fourth Battle of the Atlantic,” it will be fought against the Russian navy, which obviously would have to come out to fight it. Unfortunately, this line of argument comes dangerously close to echoing the errors of the Cold War. The Soviet navy never was coming out to fight, and the smaller, less capable Russian navy is even less likely to do so. One presumes that the aim of stating, nonetheless, the existence of a possible, even likely, concrete Russian threat to the SLOCs reflects non-threat-related objectives: to promote alliance solidarity and build political and public support in the United States for needed Navy programs. 
I don't know what this "naval intelligence" officer is getting at but the truth is, the interdiction of SLOCs was one of five main strategic tasks of the Soviet Navy which did have not only the largest submarine fleet in the world, bust since 1970s was developing fast cutting edge platforms and weapons precisely for cutting off supplies from the United States to Europe which was viewed as a main theater of operations. Dismukes case is highly unconvincing in terms of his accent and he, in the end, admits that:
These objectives remain as legitimate as they were during the Cold War. However, seeking to promote them by deviating from reality-based planning is unlikely to be effective. First, public support may be difficult to sustain in the face of criticism that the Navy is distorting reality on behalf of the service’s self-interests. Second, the time-honored principle that the planner above all must defend his own vulnerabilities provides fully sufficient grounds for acquiring needed forces and exercising them to maintain their readiness. The greatest American vulnerability at sea continues to be control of the North Atlantic (with regard to SLOCs, undersea cables, and possible future strategic conventional or nuclear threats to the continental United States). Moreover, that control remains an essential condition for the integrity of the alliance.
OK, fine. Reasonable enough. After all, the reason why these guys Elmo Zumwalt and Stansfield Turner were working on Project 60, which was in a effect a program of the US Navy's modernization to fight precisely on SLOCs against Soviet Navy explains that they knew about "greatest American vulnerability" and that the Soviet Navy will "come out" to fight.  But after this logical loop Dismukes, trying to present himself as a "reality-based" planner, produces a scenario of such a scale of delusion that one who followed my writing for years may finally calm down and exhale: whew, everything is back to normal US wet fantasies and distortion of the reality in the military and intelligence sphere, which long ago became a hallmark of American intellectual and professional decline. To understand why it is so, Dismukes, who allegedly should be much better prepared to speak professional language than ignorant David Axe, comes up with this "brilliant" assessment: 
Most importantly, the emerging strategic situation provides an alternative, offensive strategic use for forces that complements and promotes traditional SLOC defense. The rapid globalization of the world economy has made Russia far more dependent on the sea than in the past for the growth of its economy, in keeping with its aspirations as a great power. This suggests that the United States and its allies should adopt a blockade strategy in response. Neither Russia nor any other nation can use the surface of the world ocean except at the sufferance of the United States and its allies. In this sense, the West can be said to enjoy global command of the sea 
This is one of those face-palm moments at which one has to ask Dismukes about how exactly does he view a real war, or real operations? Surely, one may play with all kinds of scenarios, including Russian and US navies combined operations to fight off alien invasion, but Dismukes obviously fails to understand that in fact, "rapid globalization" pushed Russia towards much greater self-reliance in economy and launched the process of "moving" main energy supply arteries deep within Eurasian land-mass, making them invulnerable for American meddling and attempts to sabotage them. Surely, Russia still uses SLOCs, including for delivery of the cargoes such as grain around the globe, but, if anything else Russia's use of SLOCs is not what Dismukes thinks it is:
The potential vulnerability of these assets should be exploited—for deterrence; for crisis response; or, if war is unavoidable, to fight and terminate it successfully. Let us examine briefly two examples of a blockade strategy in action—recognizing that blockade is likely to be more effective in “small war” situations, where the political stakes and the scale of military operations are limited.  
At this stage, to understand why Dismukes goes into this kind of teenage level "scenarios", one should look at his biography which reveals that he is a Cold War 1.0 hawk who is stuck at the level of platforms, weapons and operations of 1980s,  or 1990s at the most. Drawing strategic "lessons" from different era and circumstances and trying to apply them to the state of modern Real Revolution in Military Affairs is a fool's errand. We are not living in 1980s anymore and for Dismukes to really come face-to-face to the reality, he should recall that modern ASW, especially along well protected SLOCs Russia uses primarily, those being for once well within the ranges of Russia's combat aviation, but there is a gigantic difference between 110 kilometer range Mach=0.9 P-120 Malakhit anti-shipping missile of 1960s design, and M=2.6,  800 kilometer range (domestic version) of P-800 Onyx, just one example. For some reason Dismukes doesn't want to calculate--the only legitimate way of making any case on be that strategic ASW or "SLOC defense". 

Here is the example of proper presentation of the case. Recall The Proceedings' piece by Andrew Metrick last year. Here is a professional who, instead of waxing "strategic", gives concrete numbers which define a direct variation of complications for a "defending" side with the growth of the range of salvo. 
Simple as that. It also becomes a truism that appearance of any hostile surface force within the range between 2 to 3,000 kilometers from Russian shores, a precise distance within which most of Russia's SLOCs are located, makes this hostile force, let's be direct here, a sitting duck for a variety of strike means Russian Armed Forces can bring to bear. That brings us to main point--how Dismukes sees, say, operations of US Navy at Northern Sea Route, trying to enforce a "blockade"--an act of war, mind you--there, or even in Mediterranean? Last time I checked, no US air defense system is good enough for intercepting a salvo of modern supersonic, let alone hypersonic, anti-shipping missiles and DOES NOT solve the main issue of surface warfare--a problem of a leaker (or leakers). Dismukes forgets that it is August of 2020, not August of 1985. Things changed, dramatically at that. I also "liked" a paragraph where Dismukes suggests not to "touch" Russia's SSBNs. Goodness gracious.

And here is the point, what the hell is going on in US media, especially Forbes, which publishes utter delirium from David Axe, now Dismukes with scenarios which are based on a number of utterly false assumptions and, frankly, childish wet dreams, as if not understanding a relation between ranges of modern weapons and required forces and operational sweeps to at least have a chance against a single sub armed with modern ASMs. What about two of them, what about three? Forget Russia's long-range aviation capable to wipe out any force in the ocean without even nearing farthest edges of air defense zones of any US CBG, forget about sinking de facto indefensible convoys. Is there something which is being put in the water that we have this one after another ridiculous pieces of mental masturbation? In the end, does Dismukes even understand how the world changed and with it changed a technology of sinking fleets. What is forgivable for a comic books' "artists" who has issues with basic understanding of arithmetic, is absolutely inadmissible for a person who is a naval "intelligence" professional, who, evidently, got stuck in 1980s and cannot face a reality of modern war.

In related news, as was expected the stream is large due to Army-2020 international forum, Russia (in Russian) begins to consider increasing missile load, from 8 to 16 on project 21631 and to 24 for project 11661 Gepard, with 21631 growing in displacement from 900 to around 1300 tones. It was also confirmed (contacts have been signed), that Russian Navy will receive 8 pr. 22350 frigates and more pr. 20385 corvettes, all carriers of coming 3M22 Zircon (in Russian). Continuation of the pr. 20385 is an extremely good news for Russian Navy because these are very capable platforms for surface warfare, air defense and ASW. One of the best corvettes in the world with enough strike power to sink aircraft carrier. 
But I am sure Mr. Dismukes knows all that.  

P.S. A classic case of intelligence operations is to publish some utter rubbish in media and expect the other side start debunking it hoping for it to "spill the beans". Oldest trick in the book even teenagers know about. Could this stream of BS be of this nature? Possible but I don't think it is the case here--most of it fits perfectly a general picture of insufferable butt-hurt and self-medicating.