Saturday, November 30, 2019

Patrick Armstrong Asks A Question.

Patrick wrote today and important piece. I would say a metaphysical (almost) one.  In it he essentially asks and answers the question of WHY people like him (it relates to me in a sense too) do what they do. The piece is titled: 
It is one of those must read pieces and here is the answer (crucial part of it) to the question of why do what Patric, Bernhard from MoA, The Saker or I do. 
So what’s the point of writing? I already agree with you, you already agree with me. Our readers are here because they also agree. Writing becomes a mechanical operation, moving along a pre-determined course. No minds are changed, no minds are even engaged. But there is one big and important difference between the two solitudes which leads us out of the my bubble/your bubble stalemate. The well-informed person will be less often surprised than the poorly informed person. There is an objective reality and people who actually do have a pretty good take on things, see that reality more clearly than those who don’t. In short, those who actually are well-informed will be less often surprised than those who aren’t. Surprise is the clue: it is both the consequence and the evidence of ignorance.
It is absolutely crucial point. Consider this blog. OK, you read this blog, so let's consider this one as an example, in the end it is the only one way for me to heap the praise on myself, otherwise, as Russian saying goes--did not praise yourself today, consider the whole day wasted(c). This blog, now in a sixth year of its existence, was and remains relentless from the very inception in its warnings about reality being not what it is being presented by people and institutions which Patrick effectively described as being surprised in a non-stop manner:
But the readers and writers of the WaPo/NYT/Economist/Guardian bloc were surprised. They are certain that Assad gasses his own people when there’s no reason to; they believe that Qaddafi “bombed his own people“; they laughed when Trump said he was taped; they called Milosevic the “butcher of the Balkans“; they expect the Russian economy to collapse; they’re confident that the JIT is an honest investigation; they expect the protests will weaken Putin; they believe the “world community” recognises Guaidó; they are confident the West would be happy if Putin weren’t sowing discord; they expect that the next world problem will be managing China’s decline; they know where to find democracy in Hong Kong. And, especially, they were confident that Mueller will find a bombshell to blow up Trump. They remain believers in Browder’s story. The devotees of the establishment media bloc are almost always surprised by the way things turn out. That, by itself, shows that they are poorly informed about reality. Everybody is surprised some of the time but the poorly informed are surprised all of the time.
Bingo, I write for years now that not only WE (as an alternative media) are better in our OODA due diligence, but that Western establishment is utterly incompetent and that is why it is surprised non-stop. I called it few years ago a permanent Chalabi Moment. Mind you, Patrick Armstrong was an analyst in Canadian Defense Ministry, Larry C Johnson or Philip Giraldi were bona fide CIA officers, Colonel Patrick Lang is a Vietnam War combat veteran who availed his blog as a platform for many people whose military-intelligence backgrounds and experiences are genuine and proved viable throughout the years  by giving in general a top-notch analysis and providing good reliability of their forecasts. And here is the point--for people who involve themselves into such activity as assessing and forecasting anything, the first requirement for them, if to put it in a layman's lingo, is to be right, correct in their "predictions" at least once in a while, forget being consistent. That requires knowledge of the subject. In the end, one has to have his facts straight and this is not easy and requires a lot of professionalism,  labor and honesty--qualities completely lacking in the Establishment media and think-tankdom.

We (I say we because I do not separate myself from what, say, Patrick Armstrong and Strategic Culture Foundation do) simply know better. Let me demonstrate Patrick's point about people seeking out truth on this blog's example--from the inception I literally did not use any technologies other than my posts on a discussion boards to attract attention to my blog. None. I referred to some of my post through links on a discussion boards at Unz Review, plus I posted couple of them at Colonel Lang's blog. My blog became more or less known largely through the "word of mouth". Here is how it went since 2014. 
Blog started at December 2014
In other words, Armstrong is spot on when stating:
But people do change and our audience is growing. How can that be happening if we change no minds? Because the individual makes the first step on his own. So this is the reason why we write and speak and – religious allusion again – testify. People we’ve never heard of, disgusted by the strident one-sided nonsense, surprised by some unexpected reality they bump into, stop passively believing, begin to doubt, search around and find us. Our writings then show them they were right to doubt and lead them to a better appreciation of reality. We don’t persuade them, they persuade themselves; we don’t convert them, they convert themselves. But we reinforce their conversion and show them that there is more reality (less surprise) on our side. Once gained to our side, they won’t leave. It’s conversion.
But in the end, we are simply better, because we know more, much more about things we are talking about. Moreover, most of us know our own limitations but we know where to seek competent opinion on matters we don't know about. BTW, while at it, this blog is well over 2 million original views now and, as I stated before, practically nothing was done to promote it, people simply started seeking it out mostly by the "word of mouth". Of course, publishing books helped too. Recall what I stated almost five years ago:
My assertion stands and it is now supported by an overwhelming body of empirical evidence. 

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Another One Bites The Dust (c).

Oops, here comes Johnny! As Turkey goes, so goes Azerbaijan, which still is a complex issue on its own. 
(Bloomberg) -- President Ilham Aliyev said Azerbaijan won’t seek closer integration with Europe, which he accused of discriminating against Muslims and undermining his country’s traditional values. “Where shall we integrate?” Aliyev said in a rare public criticism of the West in a speech to university students and teachers in the capital, Baku, on Tuesday. “Shall we integrate with those who are saying ‘Stop Islam’? Shall we integrate to a place where there’s no difference being made between men and women? We definitely shall not.” Aliyev’s remarks mark a departure from the national security strategy he approved in 2007, which said energy-rich Azerbaijan targets membership in European and Euro-Atlantic alliances. The majority Muslim but secular nation of 10 million people sandwiched between Iran and Russia forged close political and economic ties with the U.S. and the European Union after declaring independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991. The president’s speech “was his acknowledgment of the failure of secularism and western values in Azerbaijan,” prominent Azeri journalist Khadija Ismayil wrote on Facebook. Ismayil, who’s known for investigative reports into Aliyev’s undeclared family businesses, was sentenced to prison in 2015 and freed the following year after international criticism of her detention and trial.
First, let's start with debunking the point about "failure of secularism". Oh, please! Ilham Aliyev had absolutely different thing in mind. For starters, even in Soviet times it was a normal occurrence for some deceased Party bureaucrat to be buried in Muslim tradition, with Mullah present and all that. Azerbaijan was always a Muslim country but initially Russia imperial and, later, Soviet rule provided an extremely serious boost to Azerbaijan's development which fused with a rather rich and colorful Azerbaijani culture. Among all former Soviet Caucasus republics, now independent states of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan in 20th century was most genuinely multi-cultural place, with the capital of Baku being an extraordinarily cosmopolitan city with very large, almost equal in size,  Azerbaijani, Russian and Armenian diasporas populating it, with yet another smaller diasporas of Jews, Germans and heirs of Russian Molokans constituting the rest. That gave the rise to a unique recognizable identity and even lingo of Bakunians (Bakintsy) who were Bakunians first, and Azerbaijani, Russians or Armenians second. In other words, Azerbaijan has a vast and, with the exception of tragedies of connected to the collapse of the USSR, positive experience of true integration. Enough to mention that even today a huge share of Azerbaijani public schools teaches students in Russian language, despite Russian diaspora in Azerbaijan dwindling to few tens of thousands after the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

Just to demonstrate. Here is 2018 graduation ceremony in Baku's school # 145 (my wife graduated it)--it is still school with in depth physics-mathematics curriculum. Pay attention--all of it is in Russian, and in fact repeats to the smallest detail almost Soviet, and, in general, modern Russian graduation traditions. 

Same goes for higher education and with many Azerbaijani youth doing their higher ed. in Russian. So, Aliyev's speech is not about "secularism" or its "failure"--quite opposite. Ilham, who himself is a graduate of famous MGIMO and a son of possibly the only one man in Politburo who could stop the collapse of the USSR, Geidar Aliyev, knows where the actual Islamization stops. Here is Ilham's wife and mover and shaker of Aliyev's business, Mehriban Aliyeva, with Putin four days ago during inter-regional forum in Moscow. 

I dare to say, that Azerbaijan's moves are precisely against talibanization and recognizing the fact that, especially after Turkey's moves, it will be a traditional, and dear to many good honest hard working Azerbaijanis, Moscow (and Russia in general) with who the fates of their country lie. I deliberately omit here the issue of Nagorny Karabakh--it is a separate and a very complex topic on its own--but the number of Azerbaijanis living and doing business in Russia is large and yes, by far not all of them are selling vegetables and fruits at the markets, nor are involved in the ethnic organized crime--an inevitable "benefit" of multi-ethnic state. Many are excellent doctors, engineers, people of art and culture and, in general, well-educated and highly socially adaptable people. In the end, it is all about geopolitics. For Azerbaijan, the West is far, Russia, on the other hand, is a few hours of drive north from Baku to Dagestan, same goes for Iran to the South. Plus, Baku commands serious reserves of oil and gas, plus, so called modern Western "values" are equally rejected in Moscow and Baku. 

But even more importantly, Azerbaijan is a pivot state of the region and, speaking in a very simple language, she gets it one way or another if the "reputable" (/sarc) United States decide to commit suicide and go for Iran's jugular. There are 20+ million ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Northern Iran, including in the province symptomatically called Azerbaijan. Boy, talk about the complexity of the region. Of course delusional "opposition" people in any nation sound all the same and read from the same script written either by Soros or CIA and they do sound stupid:
The president is “quite sincere” in his opposition to European integration because “Europe means democracy, free elections, rule of law, universal human rights and social welfare,” Altay Goyushov, an opposition politician who heads the Baku Research Institute, a think tank in the city, wrote on Facebook. “Aliyev wants to see a medieval monarchy in Azerbaijan,” he said.
That's the definition of being delusional. Especially when one talks about "democracy" in Europe which is run by corrupt homicidal EU bureaucracy and is dominated by political parties whose agendas are anything but "human rights" driven and have very little to do with "free" elections. In general, it all comes down to who will have better economic prospects with all that follows politically in the mid to long term future. It is Eurasia--pretty much no-brainer. As for Azerbaijani Armed Forces, guess who is in charge and what institutions many of them graduated from?  Well, including my naval academy. Those people are not stupid, they can count and plan. They also can assess geopolitical situation and deduct power balance. I am sure they do it professionally and do identify trends well. Talk, especially about "human rights" and "democracy" (not to mention "rule of law") is cheap. The only things that matter are actions and things that work. Europe doesn't. So, it is not about Islam, or, rather, not about it primarily. It is about pure national interest and elites seeing future for themselves. Prosperity usually produces stable political situation, especially when one has to consider what neighborhood he (she) resides in. And, frankly, I would (and probably will, inshallah;)) rather visit Baku than Paris or Madrid.  Beaches are good and the food is out of this world--I know, I was born there. In a sense that I have a slight idea about how it works.

Here are some additional views of modern day Baku. A warning, do not try to compare it with glitzy and tawdry Arab Gulfie newbie playgrounds such as Qatar or UAE.      

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

The Story of US "Foreign Policy".

No comments are necessary. US has NO own foreign policy, it has only outside manipulators and serves their interests.  


New S-400 Contract For Turkey?

OK, certainly looks like. Or, as they say, appetite comes during the meal. 
Turkey is to sign a new contract for S-400 missile-defense systems with Russia, according to Moscow, which would risk further souring ties with the US and could trigger threatened sanctions. Ankara received the first batch of Russia's surface-to-air missile systems systems in July, prompting the US to kick Turkey off its F-35 fighter jet programme. The Trump administration warned Ankara it could face sanctions, but said Ankara could be spared if it does not activate the S-400 system. But the Nato member yesterday came one step closer as it began testing a newly acquired Russian missile defence system against American-made fighter jets. Footage of the first trial run, which began on Monday and continued into Tuesday, showed the system’s radars rotating over an air base outside the capital. US-made F-16 fighter jets were used as mock targets during the exercise, which will likely irk Washington. Initial tests may just be to ensure that the radars are working properly or to see if they can adequately distinguish between friendly and enemy aircraft.
Some Turkish user already uploaded a video of S-400 running its radar systems, namely 40V6MR mast with acquisition 96L6 radar, and, what seems like a 91N6E--another acquisition and battle management radar. I cannot vouch for this video being genuine but to me it looks legit. 
So, Turks are already running, it seems, detection routine with F-16 and F-4 as targets. Turks will, already do, want more. Turks know what comes next, and it is S-500--they want it. The reason is simple: look at the map of Turkey and see how much Eastern Mediterranean she will be able to cover--pretty much all of it. Just in case. And it is not just for the reasons of Greece and gas fields, but for the reasons of Israel. Turkish path towards a leadership in Islamic world lies through the fate of Palestine. So, a lot of thing are riding on those systems for Turkey and, just a hunch, SU-35s will follow.    

Monday, November 25, 2019

A Crucial Difference.

At some point you get emotionally overloaded with the crap in real life. But there are places where one goes both physically and in the imagination to get a peace of mind. Forestalling a possible challenge: but there are places like this in Russia. Yes, there are, such as stunning Altai

But there is a crucial difference between Altai and Montana Glacier Park or Banff in breathtaking Alberta--places, among very few in the world, which have almost a spiritual influence on me with their indescribable beauty. For me, to get from Altai to another life necessity of a big water--the ocean--I will have to get to Gorno-Altaisk, then to Novosibirsk to take a plane to Vladivostok, or Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky to feel the mighty breath of the Pacific--a 3,000 miles flight. A 5 or so hours affair. 

But when you are in the magical Montana, in Glacier National Park:

Or driving through Alberta:

You are never more than 6-7 hours drive from the Pacific Ocean shores.  And that matters. You just have to be near, within reach of those places. Middle Russia is flat, even mountainous Ural is very low, Caucasus can rival Rockies but it is Caucasus, and no ocean, just the seas. It is a bizarre feeling of finding in the beauty of Rockies and near pacific something which simply warms your soul. Western North America (US and Canada) are simply indescribable in their beauty and they are near ocean. Because you need to be near this too:
It has a healing quality of sorts to be here (Russia's Far East Coast near Vladivostok is similar) and they are always within reach. I think we need to take breaks from the chaos of life in those true safe spaces.  

Why Russia Is A Clear And Present Danger to The US-II

One of the most original contemporary Russian thinkers, Sergei Mikheev on Liberalism and its severe crisis (English subs): 

He speaks about exaltation of "liberals", of their fanatical belief in the sanctity of what they do when destroying a foundation on which human civilization is based. A liberal, a euphemism for totalitarian, delusion which must be resisted. There is also some talk about fusion, both social and economic. The main issue is where is this golden middle which balances personal and communal, self-interest and obligations to society? Clearly not a path of modern day financial capitalism which destroys societies both from within and outward--enough to take a look at what this "liberalism" did to the United States and many destroyed by her nations in the last 30 years. A catastrophe. But I also repeat myself, my latest book dedicates its large parts to describing this situation. 

Can the United States find a cure? I don't think so, but it seems that Russia is trying to do this. Enough to take a look at staples of Western liberalism such as fanatical radical feminism (third-fourth wave), sexual perversion, even attempts to legalize pedophilia, "reverse" racism--all these phenomena are marginalized or, down right criminalized, in Russia and are espoused by a very narrow strata of the so called Russian "liberda" also known as Creakls (from the word Creative). In today's excellent piece for RIA, Victor Marahovsky, discussing Hong-Kong mutiny defines its "democracy" movement as:  
Translation: speaking simply, the power, formal and informal, in the business-oriented Chinese megalopolis is being usurped by citizens whose specialties and professional skills are reducible to "emotion management". Creative intelligentsia and "activists"--that is narrowly specialized humanities-educated masters of slogan-mongering, logotypes, of pinning worrying hearts pins, writing of the mobilization songs and inspirational flaming speeches. 

As you may expect, these people have zero capability to run a public restroom, let alone such metropolis as HK. But what does it remind you of? Same here, in the United States which is run by people most of who have zero abilities and skills to run anything and almost all, seem to originate in the law and political pseudo-science field. It always ends in a disaster. Such as Russia of 1990s. You take a look at the modern crop of the American politicians, especially Democrats, this is, frankly, scary. The only thing these people are good at is to how reelect themselves and serve interests of their political donors. Liberalism simply stops producing statesmen. Corruption and mediocrity it produces aplenty, together with snow-flakes and so called "Social Justice Warriors", but statesmen, people who put interests of the country above personal one? No. It also stops producing thinkers of scale. Enough to take a look at Western geopolitical and economic thought in the last 30 years--a collection of, at best, mediocrity, at worst--of pseudo-academic delusion, which tries to avoid a crucial question of the economic and cultural devastation globalism brought upon its main protagonist, the United States. Current, televised live self-destruction of the United States is an irrefutable empirical evidence of a profound, systemic crisis whose roots are in the utter corruption of the American government, which long ago is not by the people and for the people...

To Be Continued...  

Saturday, November 23, 2019

It Is Coming And It Is Near.

From the site of Russian Ministry of Defense:
Translation: The Frigate of project 22350 "Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov" arrived to the Belomor (White Sea) naval base of the Northern Fleet. In the nearest future, in Severodvinsk, the ship will prepare for the tests of the new types of weapons and will sail to the White Sea for test launches.  

One doesn't have to be a Ph.D to figure this out--3M22 Zircon is obviously ready for fleet trials. This is a new page in warfare which is being turned as I type this.  I cannot stress enough the importance of this event. The whole military-intelligence world is now in a state of excitement (not to mentions vast armies of fan-boys and armchair strategists, such as myself) and anticipation. 1000+ kilometer range hyper-sonic anti-shipping missile launched from such platform as Russia's newest frigates of Gorshkov-class is a radical game changer in naval warfare. I touched upon some very basic salvo equations in my latest book when writing about this weapon, I may need to do a more thorough explanation with more (I will try to simplify it) combat math. MoD however, made a hilarious typo in this press-release. 

Friday, November 22, 2019

Back To My Cryptic Post--Why Russia Is A Clear And Present Danger to The US-I

You remember my recent cryptic post and how Arctic Fox blew my cover. 
OK, Putin is spot on here defining the principle, not just a nation, which represents clear and present danger to the neo-liberal world (dis)order. Yes, China is certainly a big threat to the current West in economic sense, but, apart from this principle, metaphysically China is not a threat. Russia is, and for a simple reason--average Chinese and average Westerners have few things in common and many differences which, effectively separate them civilizationally. Average Russians and average Westerners (those who are still sane, of course), on the other hand, are virtually indistinguishable in their outlook, not to mention visually. I know Germans and Americans who look like a god damn bums and drunks from some backwater Russian village, while I know many Russians who are constantly mistaken for Germans, Scandinavians (Duh!)  or look like your typical American. Granted, I still can recognize Slavic features in the crowd of Westerners most of the time. 

It is one thing when a profoundly "alien" culture such as China achieves economic success and, indeed, shows a working combination of the state planning and market economy. I will omit here, of course, some serious structural problems Chinese economy and especially its military power have--on the surface it is still an amazing achievement. But realistically, few White European stock people will immediately rush to learn Chinese (Mandarin) language or will start listening to Chinese music or read Chinese literature en-masse. They will continue to buy relatively cheap consumer goods produced in China, but few will really get into Confucianism or start quoting Sun Tzu at the New Year's party. Russians are different. Many Americans still think (wrongly, of course, but still good example) that Tchaikovsky's 1812 Overture, played every 4th of July pretty much everywhere in the US, is related directly to America's 1812 War. In other words, it is as much American as it is Russian. It is easy to re-appropriate such things--they are effectively from the same cultural root of Classic Western Civilization.  In the end, the number of Tolstoy's War and Peace TV and movie versions in the West (all of them subpar) is impressive, not to mention Soviet Sergei Bondarchuk's masterpiece, which IS in many respects a Western movie, despite being so Russian. Soviet sci-fi movies by Klushantsev, especially his Planet of the Storms which influenced so many in the Hollywood  sci-fi genre, including none other than George Lucas

Soviet education in STEM, some of its key principles and even text books, were adopted in the West. All that and much-much more was possible only between peoples who communicated in the same cultural code, had many similarities in their idiosyncrasies. For the West China is NOT that, Russia, including Wests pathological Russophobia IS. Even hatred of Russians and Russia is profound because West recognizes in Russia its OWN OTHER. China's economic success is bad enough for a Western neo-liberal establishment, which, let's be clear about it, is by far not just those omnipotent Jews, but a serious combination of moneyed and aristocratic strata which is as European in its whiteness and culture as is humanly possible. Russia's success in fusing state planning and market economy and free enterprise--this can have catastrophic consequences for the West as it exists today. In the end--do not forget the most important thing for which Russians have a proverb: once every century combined West goes to Russia to get its ass handed to it. So true, since 1242 Alexander Nevsky's remarkable defeat of Teutonic Knights at lake Peipus (Chudskoe), Russia was in a constant fight with the West for own survival. This is the image, the archetype of the West forever ingrained in Russian psyche by efforts of two geniuses of Sergei Eisenstein and Sergei Prokofiev (probably the first ever modern heavy-metal music ever) in 1938:

After all, even Emerson, Lake and Palmer didn't hesitate to base their and rock music's one of the greatest albums on Mussorgsky's music. So, you see--cultural roots of Russia and West have a lot in common, but most importantly: Russian Marxism was Marxism, after all, and Marxism is a strictly Western invention. Well, guess what, the biggest West's handing of its ass on the platter in history, was done by historic Russia, known then as the Soviet Union, under the banners of this very Marxism, based entirely on Marxist view on technological, social and industrial progress. Boy, those Russian T-34s and Katyushas with Lavochkin and Yakovlev's fighters were a pain in the ass for Axis. And once the Banner of Victory was raised at Reichstag in May, 1945, the combined West literally shat its pants precisely for the reasons of those pesky Russian commies having a bit different view of the human rights and distribution of GDP, than it was viewed in D.C. and London, or Paris. And here comes this most important issue, Russians kicked Western ass so many times, granted, losing sometimes here and there, that through this rather consistent ass-kicking they made their views on the social order known--the whole 20th and 21st centuries are about these views. And while China cannot present a record of power accomplishments against combined West, Russian one looks extremely impressive. 

So, here is the deal: Russians, on average, even within new generation, which was not subjected to any kind of Marxist/Soviet indoctrination today still maintain a very "progressive" outlook on life. No, not progressive in modern Western sense, quite the opposite, this outlook is largely "conservative" and nationalistic, but it contains within itself a fundamental social difference of which many Russians wrote and continue to write:
Here is the trick, in Russia you cannot preserve people within liberal economic paradise. You simply cannot. In fact, you cannot do it anywhere. Russians tried to do the "libertarian" thing in 1990s--it ended with a national catastrophe and de facto economic genocide of population, in millions. Eat this, Stalin, right? So that "experiment" is over, but what is emerging and is clearly visible now in Russia is truly threatening to the world order ran by whiteboard economists, lawyers, journos, political pseudo-scientists, Wall Street swindlers and other people who do not know what real work is and how and what should be produced to keep the country running. Call it whatever you want: a deindustrialization, financialization, neo-liberalism or laissez-faire', it is all pure distilled moon-shine capitalism built around the myth of a "free market" and "free trade"--two of the greatest simulacra ever invented (after America's defeat of Nazism almost alone) because none of those things exist anymore, if they ever existed to start with. Russians, both through theory and tragedy, learned it the hard way and now are doing things which are anathema to Western snake-oil peddlers. Would you believe it, Russians not only want their strategic resources (increasingly being returned back under state control) NOT controlled by financiers, but, oh the horror, they insist that basic health care must be free (or for a symbolic pay, yes, yes MRIs and CatScans included) and no state support for gender-changing operations or plastic surgery. Kids entering universities on a "budget" (free) still constitute a huge share of Russian students. And these are but a few things West have, or don't as in the US, and all of this is dispensed through Russian state's policies. Russians hate their state, they also love it deeply and cannot live without it, because they know without it they will not survive--that's the difference and it is a strategic one....

To Be Continued...   

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Again? No, Really.

This saga becomes simply preposterous now. 
WASHINGTON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Turkey needs to "get rid of" the Russian S-400 missile defense system it purchased, a senior State Department official said on Thursday, to overcome a standoff with Washington, which says the procurement poses a threat to NATO defense capabilities. Ankara and Washington have been at loggerheads over Turkey's purchase of the S-400 system, which Washington says is not compatible with NATO defenses and poses a threat to its F-35 stealth fighter jets. U.S. President Donald Trump hosted his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan at the White House last week for a meeting, which Trump described as "wonderful." However, it was not clear if the two NATO allies made any breakthrough on the S-400 impasse. "There is room for Turkey to come back to the table. They know that to make this work they need to either destroy or return or somehow get rid of the S-400," the official told reporters at a briefing.
I will repeat what I stated not for once before precisely on this situation. But, it seems, intellectual level of US Department of State top is such that they simply fail to grasp:

1. Turkish (in general Oriental) mentality which emphasizes the issue of honor and face, even if misplaced under some circumstances;
2. The issue of the United States making itself look very weak with each demand for Turkey to abandon S-400 deal; 
3. A default discrediting, already revealed long time ago to be not what it stated to be, US military technology, especially under the laughable and lame pretexts such as S-400 "compromising" F-35 "Stealth".
But Erdogan, upon his return to Ankara, said he told Trump during talks that Turkey would not give up on the Russian S-400 missile defences and cited strong ties with Moscow.
My question is, are they even aware in State Department of how do they look like when literally begging, threatening and demanding non-stop for Turkey to abandon S-400 contract? Even if to imagine that Turkey quits the contract, returns already delivered battalion of S-400 back to Russia, this not only will not improve US position vis-a-vis S-400 and Russia, it will be even more humiliating, because will create a tsunami of sarcasm globally. Not to mention the fact of Turks looking as the American stooges and Turks, certainly, have better opinion of themselves. How about State Department creating a new Office of S-400 Weekly Complaints and Threats Towards Turkey (OSWCTTT). Should be a pretty nice sinecure for some bureaucrat. Should pay well too--rent and real estate prices inside the Beltway are atrocious. Foggy Bottom especially

In any case, as Sergei Lavrov stated correctly few days ago: 

It is not easy to part with power: both real and perceived. Not easy at all, I know--I survived such a departure, I know how it feels and what it does to one personally, and tens of millions people in general. Here is one reason for the West going down the drain, yet another wonderfully tolerant day in Germany:

No surprise here, same as with Germans moving to Russia. Some going back, like Russian Germans, others pure 100% Germans simply abandoning Germany and immigrating to Russia. Like Gudrun, who decided that her place is in Russia, near lovely Yaroslavl, not in Germany. Sadly, the video is in Russian (dubbed over German) but it speaks volumes. 

They come young and old, families and alone. Russian response is overwhelmingly positive--welcome, European brethren. Read comments under the video. I know some genuine Germans live now in Altai and the "rumor" has it, as well as Gudrun testifies to it--many Eastern Germans are seriously thinking about immigrating to Russia. They will be met with open arms. But just to demonstrate a cultural abyss which separates today Russia and Europe and the US, here is the news--a major Russian media, reprints other popular Moscow magazine's (Moskvich--Moscowite)--New type of fraud, Gypsies wearing a makeup which makes them look like Slavs. Do I hear hysterical screams from NYT, CNN, BBC, EU Parliament, State Department about "gypsy holocaust", about "racial profiling" and about this Russian Mordor where actually citizens and law enforcement do care about profiling based on race, ethnicity and religion to maintain overwhelming majority of law abiding, contributing population safe from crime. Isn't it the only way to do it? Yes, it is the ONLY way and that is how it was done for centuries. Vladimir Putin (in Russian) agrees with me. Even Sweden is admitting, however incompletely, about catastrophe which befell the nation which is being literally gang raped and demolished by Muslim "rapefugee" gangs. I think it is late now, but as they say, better know the rest. 

This is how you deal with thieves, drug pushers and free-loaders. 

And something tells me--it is one of the major reasons, why more and more Europeans are moving to Russia. Like Justus. He, as it is stated in one of the comments, an American (as the type, not just person) Russians fell in love with. 
It is an incredible (and dangerous) time we all live in, but it also holds in itself an incredible promise and that is why, most likely, Turkey will not abandon S-400 contract.  

WASHINGTON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The United States is working with Egypt to deter it from going ahead with a deal to buy Russian warplanes, threatening the Cairo government with sanctions if it does, a senior State Department official said on Thursday. Washington was still working with Egypt to address its defense needs, the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told a briefing. "But we've also been transparent with them in that if they are to acquire a significant Russian platform ... that puts them at risk towards sanctions." The United States has over the years provided billions of dollars in economic and military aid to Egypt, a long-time ally whose military operates the F-16 fighter jet. Egypt earlier this year signed a $2 billion agreement with Russia to buy more than 20 Su-35 fighter jets. The United States could impose sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which targets purchases of military equipment from Russia.
Do they even understand how they humiliate themselves? Apparently not.   

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

I Will Be A Bit Cryptic;))

Here, the post which I will have to elaborate on later and which should have the title: what they are afraid of. I know, I know (wink, wink). The matter, actually, is very serious and requires serious elaborations. So, consider this as staking one of the most important topics of the 21st century. It has everything to do with fears of Bene Gesserit.

MS-21 "Ramped Up".

An interesting piece of news from OAK (United Aircraft Corporation--UAC) which wants to ramp-up its annual production of MS-21 aircraft from initially 70 to 120 a year (in Russian). 
Translation: We consider a possibility of international cooperation in MS-21 program. Out task is to reach annual production of 120 units, stated Slyusar (CEO of OAK).  

The part on international cooperation should be made clear: Russia produces enough composites to satisfy requirements of Russian combat aviation and rates of 70 aircraft a year for MS-21 and whatever goes to SSJ-100 which is being "russified" very fast, from APU to avionics. Of course, there are other demand for composites, not least in a missile field. But commercial aircraft, of course, are a separate "animals" and require a number of serious conditions to be fulfilled when dealing, especially, with composite materials. Especially so when the number of disposable, that is replaceable,  parts ranging from engine gondolas to all kinds of fairings is very large. International cooperation in this respect is only natural.  
B-787 compositION. 
So, expense in composite materials for each aircraft is quite large. But why, one may ask, such a ramp-up in production. Does it have any relation to a snafu with B-737 Max? Of course, it does, but methinks it is just one of the reasons. The larger reason is in the fact of Putin starting a few days ago in Brasilia a countdown to US Dollar demise. And then this small piece of news (in Russian): Moldova asked Russia for a loan for infrastructure projects. Ah, that's warmer. Against the background of a "pedal to the metal" new budget which infuses massive funds into Russia's national projects, the news that Russia actually can finance very many major customers somehow got lost behind Western (pseudo)economic "analysis", but that is what really matters. Russia did it before, even as USSR, but modern Russia is different--she wants a serious collateral and then she is ready to finance a lot, something like purchase of Russian commercial aircraft by variety of customers. Iran? Sure--that is why SSJ-100 is being "russified" with such a speed--and then, of course, MS-21 which is already 80% Russian. 

Middle East? Why not! Asia? Of course, there will be takers for the state-of-the-art Russian commercial aircraft. Especially when Russia will provide a loan or a.... drum roll...Lend-Lease on good conditions. Russia CAN afford to do so now.  This may explain why OAK (UAC) suddenly decided to change target numbers. Believe me--there will be takers, including among Western composite materials manufacturers. And then, of course, there is Aeroflot, S7, Ural Airlines, you name it, who are in dire need for domestic aircraft. That is what behind Slyusar's statement he made in Dubai.  Just to refresh your memory a bit: remember this in 2008?
You can easily find yourself by googling a shitstorm which followed in Western media and think-tankdom after that. Well, times changed and many countries will ask Russia for financing of their "infrastructure" projects and Russia will gladly do so, with this teeny-weeny caveat that they will buy Russian very high value added products, many of which are, in fact, extremely competitive, while some are simply superior to anything West, let alone China, make. I bet you never heard about airports of Augsburg, Lubeck, Braunshweig  and Sylt are fully equipped and operate fully Russian designed and made Air Traffic Control Systems Galactica. I know, many people still cannot wrap their brains around the fact that Russia actually produces a shitload of world-class hi-tech, a real one. But, I guess, live and learn, and adapt.  

P.S. Nord Stream-2 may become operational already this (2019) year, says Russia's Energy Minister Novak. I can only imagine joy and exhilaration in Kiev from this news.

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Ishenko Delivers.

One of my favorite Russian (namely Russian) contemporary strategists and historians, Rostislav Ishenko delivers not only traditionally logical and well-supported view, but, what is very rare in his writing--an impassioned and a bitter one. He writes about Kiev, which for me personally long ago ceased being of any value, same as used to be Prague, which will soon remove the monument to its liberator, Marshal Konev, and will erect monument to Vlasovites. In me--indifference at best, I am long ago all for transporting remains of Red Army soldiers back to Russia--Europe did not the deserve to have their graves there. Same with Kiev, and with Ukraine in general. Again, many will need Google Translate help, but the view of Ishenko is worthy of paying attention to it--it is alive geopolitics, the way it forms. 

Here is his excellent conclusion about Russian Ukrainians:
Translation: And after all that, they are still surprised that many times cursed by them Russian people (who they deny their Russianness), who while understanding that one way or another something will have to be done with Ukraine, are not rushing to "save" Ukraine (while calling them "my hut is aparters" and crypto-Banedirstas). If someone who drowns in swamp would demand from me to save him while simultaneously promising to shoot me once he gets out of the swamp, I would also think 100 times about helping him.  

Read it, it is important. Russians will never forgive a treason--about time Russians learned not to forget and not to forgive.

Google Translate Will Help.

USSR/Russia were in business of over-the-horizon targeting and shooting for a long, very long time. Since 1960s, and most important Soviet anti-shipping missiles had combat ranges in hundreds of kilometers since then. Those who read my latest book know--I concentrate on this issue--how important it is to know coordinates of a target and the rate of their obsolescence for developing a firing solution (or a flight plan, if one wishes) for a salvo of missiles. For that, in 1970s USSR created MKRC Legenda, which, for some of its shortcomings did provide good recon and targeting on which a number over-the-horizon launches were executed with excellent precision. Here is how (specifically "degraded" for public release) radar picture of Legenda looked. In this case it is Gibraltar Strait. 
You can see wakes of the vessels in the strait and, in case of required identification, ships of the size of aircraft carrier or cruiser could easily be identified and targeting data provided. 

Yesterday, Vsglyad, uncharacteristically, provided a good write up by Alexander Shishkin (a ship-building engineer) about newest Russian system Liana and, in general, over-the-horizon targeting by latest Russian technology independent from space-based Liana. I suggest you acquaint yourself with this piece, which, for those who read my last book complements it extremely well in describing peculiarities of coverage and developing of firing solutions by different platform-centric means, ranging from radar to sonar. 
I think, it is a good article which gives good insight into the issue of the over-the-horizon targeting which is crucial for modern naval (and not only) warfare and which is a part of the Real Revolution In Military Affairs. The ranges will only increase with time and they will completely redefine navies--this process is ongoing as I type this. Anyhow, enjoy.

Friday, November 15, 2019

That Is What Real Revolution In Military Affairs Gives You...

When you are the one who drives it. What 10 years ago could have been viewed as an overstepping the red line of US Dollar's hegemony, today is a normal, business-like occurrence. Vladimir Putin effectively offers Russian Ruble as a reserve currency within BRICS in Brasilia at BRICS summit. Starts at roughly 4:00. Albeit the whole report is very interesting. 

Now, Putin may wax all he wants (for the consumption of business people and investors) about Russia's macroeconomic situation which looks, indeed, stable and is not dependent on hydrocarbons market. That is easy. What needs to be emphasized, yet again, is that US Dollar's reserve status in the last 50 or so years is based primarily on the myth of American military power, period. The times when the United States was a manufacturing powerhouse of the globe are long gone, with China taking this position, and, once this American capacity was gone, the only thing which remained, apart from the "soft power" driven primarily by Hollywood, the only thing on which US Dollar's status remained to be based became expeditionary warfare. As Moammar Qaddafi, and few others, learned the hard way--one doesn't question the dominance of US currency, nor US "economic" views. That is, of course, if you are Libya, Iraq or any other location where the pre-deployment of about 300,000 US marines and GIs could be done without interruption from subject or, rather object, to be taught a valuable lesson. Color revolutions are also in this teaching tool-box. 

But those instruments go only so far, until they run into the wall of near-peer, let alone peer, who, actually, can teach its own lessons and draw its own red lines. Once one considers that Russia sits on roughly 30% (by different estimates) of global mineral wealth, has modern economy, stable political system and, what really matters, state-of-the-art Armed Forces armed with some mind-boggling weapons--that is the moment when one, like Russia, can offer a variety of alternatives from increasing the share (already growing) of payments in national currencies, to using Ruble as a main payment tool within BRICS at least. Not only Russia can, but she questions US Dollar's hegemony and, in fact, calls for overthrowing it. She can afford to. In the end, it is Russia, not even China, who now stands guard on Eurasian economic integration and this guard function requires a real high-end military capability, which is a first derivative of economy of scale. As one long-time observer of China noted recently:
Russia is. In fact that's Russian professional occupation for the last 1000 years--to handle storms. As I continue to state ad nauseam now for years--Russia has a product so valuable, so desirable by so many around the globe, that the question of price is not even that important, even if making Ruble a main currency of BRICS. Stability and peace are the names of this most treasured commodity and it is only the strength of arms which can provide it. How ironic, indeed. 

Putin In His Own Words.

About Trump making it to Moscow on 9 May, 2020. 

Do not forget to turn on English Caption. But what is remarkable about this short comment from Putin is the phrase that he suggests that for Trump being in Moscow on May 9th is actually a very good move in his re-election campaign. This is a remarkable statement from Putin, knowing what kind of shit is unfolding now in the US with a sham of "impeachment hearings" and US media going hysterical. Knowing who Putin is and assuming, correctly, his excellent briefings and situational awareness of the state of the affairs in the US, this suggestion could have come only if he would be sure that it will not damage Trump's position. While, of course, expecting inevitable psychotic reaction from US media. As I stated, the best way to arrange that would be not just Trump standing together with Putin at the Red Square podium, but US Armed Forces battalion marching in this Parade. The rumor has it, that Macron is now planning being in Moscow in the same time (in Russian), especially after being snubbed by combined West at Paris Peace Forum which just concluded a couple days ago. 

Judging by one of few real fighters in GOP, the man who effectively killed Russiagate, Devin Nunes, he has a lot to say about this whole sham by Democratic Party today. 

I think we didn't hear the last from this real fighter, who, for all my indigestion from GOP, is one of few men who has right words about this seditious treason Democrats and their lapdog whores, aka, mainstream media are trying to commit. So, who knows, this May 9th Celebration of 75th Anniversary of defeat of Nazism with Trump and, hopefully, Allies' troops may not be too far fetched. But we need to be patient and, as they say, prepare for the worst, while hoping for the best.   

Thursday, November 14, 2019

For White Board MBAs.

Get this: 
(Reuters) - Boeing Co has abandoned a key automation system used to make fuselage sections for its 777 jetliners amid reports of reliability issues, and will instead partially switch back to mechanics, the planemaker said on Thursday. The company began to build 777 fuselages in 2015 in an upright orientation, with robots drilling holes and installing fasteners, an initiative known as fuselage automated upright build (FAUB). The world's biggest planemaker said it had stopped using the system which, according to industry sources, caused problems with reliability and rework issues. Boeing had faced delays last year when the FAUB machine was tried out on existing versions of the 777. Instead, the company will switch to "flex tracks" - an automated method to drill the holes along the circumference of the airplane that are then fastened manually.
Believe me, there is more to it than meets the eye. By far, I underscore it, by far not all things could be done by manipulators (aka industrial robots) and especially so in the aerospace industry where only humans can provide for a foreseeable future required input and actual quality control. Training, qualifications, education become a decisive factor. I will not disclose any secret that many companies in aerospace prefer human layup of aircraft composite parts to any "machine laying", granted that machines can do only few and less complex parts anyway. And then comes the issue of Quality Control. Yes, there are machines involved in it, many machines, some of them very sophisticated, but in the end it comes down to human supervision and decision making process that define if the aircraft flies or it fails. It is good news that Boeing made this decision--in the end, it is Quality Inspector who answers for the aircraft, not some machine which can do only so much. 

This brings a larger issue to the fore--naked numbers on "robotization" which all kinds of white board trained MBAs love to operate with, in no way defines the "strength" or otherwise of economy. Robots are useful and they will continue to be deployed but they are merely tools and sometimes can be harmful due to bad engineering and design. Boeing provided today an excellent example of that. It is one thing to drill a substandard hole in a car on the conveyor, totally another--to do so on a commercial or military aircraft. Lives of people who fly it, including those on the ground, depend on that and no amount of bookkeeping and abstract economic data can ever substitute ethical and professional attitude of people making planes. This is a real hi-tech I am talking about, not assembly of iPhones or CGI. Only designers, engineers and, in the end, production floor manufacturing specialists can have a decisive input on the production issues. 

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

A Teeny-Weeny Bit Of News From Germany.

I respect Germans, not the perverts from the so called German "left", but real Germans who understand who they are and have ideas about Germany other than guidelines dictated from the swamp of the modern political creatures at the service of globalism. But even globalist shills understand that if Germany has any chance to survive in whatever shape and not be consumed by the United States against which Germany's very high energy cost manufacturing is a very weak hand, Germany needs affordable energy. Bundestag obviously understands that:
Berlin (AP) - The Bundestag has cleared the way for the controversial gas pipeline Nord Stream 2. With the votes of the coalition parliamentary groups CDU / CSU and SPD as well as the FDP the conversion of an EU gas guideline into national law was decided. This should provide legal and planning certainty for Nord Stream 2. The Greens raised sharp criticism. A proposal for a decision on the draft law that has now been adopted is concerned with the addition of a time-limit until when exceptions to certain provisions of the Directive are possible. It is now said that "all circumstances" of the individual case must be taken into account. The amendment to the EU Gas Directive adopted in April stipulates that in future EU energy rules will also apply to pipelines that run from third countries to the European Union. According to this, the production of natural gas and the operation of the pipeline must not be in the same hands - unlike before in Nord Stream 2. 
The only issue I have with this is that Nord Stream 2 is called "controversial". Well, for European Greens who are primarily an open-door asylum for mentally disabled people it is "controversial", it is, of course, controversial for the United States. But then again, everything Russia-related is controversial for the United States, including down right embarrassing maneuvering around Turkish S-400s. 
This will continue across the whole spectrum of the American foreign so called "policy" issues but it will not change couple of facts "on the ground" which became clear for anyone with half-a-brain observing American behavior in the last 5 or so years. 

1. Nord Stream 2, of course, never was about US "concern" about "security" of Europe's energy supply. It was always about opening European market for American expensive LNG while simultaneously providing a double-whammy by raising costs of European, especially German highly energy consuming, manufacturing thus reducing competitiveness of Germany's products. This, and then, of course, Russia--since 1970s the United States were in constant opposition to any Soviet/Russian supply of Europe with affordable energy. Soviet Union then and Russia today were not and are not supposed to benefit from selling energy and, while doing so, establishing better economic relations which served as an impediment to any war plans against Soviet/Russian "threat". 

2. This pathetic charade about F-35 (or F-22) should really be dropped by now. Not only they are seen by S-400s, they are seen by S-300s, and especially are seen by integrated Air Defense using normal sensor-data-fusion techniques across the whole spectrum from optical to radio. They are also seen by the radar or OLS of such aircraft as SU-30SM, SU-35C and SU-57. Even the latest butt-hurt BS propagated by all kinds of tabloids such as The National Interest pushing some lame rumors about supposedly S-500 being "tested" in Syria is yet another link in this long chain of BS claims to save "reputation" of one of the most embarrassing military programs, or rather failures, in the history of humanity. 

But in all of this, one can easily see machinations and desperate attempts to save what Obama Administration and its so called Intelligence Community thought would be a sure thing--to lure and then lock Russia in with the shithole both US and EU helped to create in Ukraine. When it became obvious that Russia didn't take the bait and forestalled the United States first with Crimea and, secondly, in Syria it became clear that the only value of the Ukrainian madhouse for the United States and the Belt of Stupid (US lapdogs from Poland and Baltic States) is in trying to coerce Russia to continue to finance Nazi low lives in Kiev through the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. "Smart" plan--making Russians pay for the chaos near their border. Well, considering ignorant petulant infantiles populating US "analytical" circles, this master plan was calculated well in advance and all necessary steps were taken.  You all know the story--I call it a Revelation Mode and, in fact, I may reiterate again (and why not?), the emergence of a new TOOD (Theater Of Operation Denial) Doctrine. All this happened in an instant when looked at it in historic terms. I had this discussion with Paul Craig Roberts and others not for once: compare the start-state and the end-state, between 2014 and 2019. We all live in a completely different world than it was in 2014. I mean completely, it is already unrecognizable for those who have an attention span longer than the time between commercials in SitCom and who opened their minds to seeing obvious things. 

Here is the deal. The way I see it. Hopefully by that time this pathetic show with "Impeachment" will be over and many people (if to believe that AG Barr and DOJ have any balls and integrity left) who are today omnipresent in US media will be locked away. That time is being May 9, 2020--the 75th Anniversary of the defeat of Nazism. Russia already issued invitation to Donald Trump to attend the undeniably grandiose parade in the Red Square. If the seditious treasonous coup is squashed early next year, Trump has a choice, an enormously powerful choice--if he goes to Moscow he may get along with himself a unified battalion of the US Armed Forces for it to march at the Red Square at the Parade. The precedent was set in 2010. After all, USSR and the United States were big allies. Who knows, suddenly UK and France may "reconsider" (wink, wink). But we'll see how it plays out. But yes, it will take draining of the swamp, but can you imagine the power of such a message? In the end, there are always American and British flags present every year in a massive river of humanity walking in an Immortal Regiment March. I think that is more important, even if for a day, than any geopolitics.