Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Boy, Haven't I Heard This Tune Before?

LOL. Of course, Russia is a "threat". She has been since the United States decided that it is the force for everything good against everything bad and that the war it is when the United States bombs weak defenseless nations into the stone age and then changes those hapless countries into shitholes, while profiting from it. But that is not a real war. 

Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, commander of U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command, said Russia remains the most urgent and immediate threat to the homeland even as China captures the attention of defense policymakers. “Russia is the primary military threat to the homeland today. It is not China—it is Russia,” VanHerck told Air Force Magazine on the sidelines of the Air Force Association’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference in National Harbor, Md. VanHerck explained that while China is the “long-term existential threat” to America, Russia is the stronger warfighting threat today. “From a kinetic standpoint—submarines, bombers, cruise missiles, those kinds of capabilities—Russia is the primary military threat,” VanHerck said, calling Russia and China “equals in non-kinetic—cyber, space.” “They have to both be feared,” he added.

Russians are strange people, they just don't like to be democratized. Especially when stand-off weapons are involved and, with a typical Russian cunning and perfidy, arrived to a conclusion that if they are getting bombed and invaded, they might as well respond in kind and do bombing of their own. You know, as in rearrange stones in the lands of those who bomb Russia, and in doing so destroy forces which bomb Russia. Yes, I know, this is such a treachery on Russians' part. How could they refuse all those benefits of "democracy" and the general even concluded: 

“If your only option to prevent an attack on the homeland is to nuke them, you’re not in a good place,” he said. “We have to create other capabilities and options to create doubt in their mind about ever striking our homeland.”

Right. Because we all know that the only thing Russians sleep and dream about is how to strike Skid Row or Detroit... ah, wait, I believe it has been bombed already by someone.

Well, you get my drift, after all, who said that Robocop movies were fiction? Communities like these are popping up around America like mushrooms after the rain. 

On a more serious note, however, it is clear that the United States militarily is in a bind and is undergoing a severe tactical and operational cognitive dissonance spurred by the decades of "transformation" which resulted in deluding itself with some very special "American way of war", while in reality nothing in warfare changed in terms of its main objective since the times of Clausewitz' truism that the main object of war "is to compel the enemy to do our will". Russians are not that kind of people who are compelled to do anyone's will (as many greatest military leaders in human history learned the hard way), and if they refused to do so on the insistence of Napoleon and Hitler and their largest armies in history in their time, they certainly wouldn't do it on America's account. 

Russia is certainly not going to attack the United States but if the United States attacks Russia, yes, Russia has means to obliterate the United States in response, no matter what efforts the United States undertakes to prevent such a response. Basically, VanHerck's main grievance is this: he doesn't want to be bombed back while bombing others. I know. But it is what it is--American generals do not know what it means to lose their families as a result of war, that is why they have such a cavalier attitude towards war. Russia, however, makes them uncomfortable and they don't like it. 

Russian verb, which Putin uses, сдохнуть, sadly, does not directly translate into English and it is not "drop dead", this verb is used when one describes the death of an animal--human dies, animal сдыхает. The nearest term is to croak. These are subtleties of Russian language which many in the West cannot grasp. VanHerck also expressed his opinions on Arctic, but I heard this tune before too. Sure, looking at the Rosatom fleet today I really cannot see what investment in time and treasure will be required on the US side to catch up. No, really.  
Sometimes people just have to stick to doing what they do best. Russians certainly did--they make best weapons and ice-breakers. And a couple of other things which are beyond the narrow scope of this post.

While On Topic. ASW.

Thanks to the excellent Periscope Film Channel which provides wonderful and easily understood archive footage, explaining basics. 

ASW basics.
 

Some Explanations.

 Some explanations by me talking into camera. 

FYI, definition of Navalism.


Russia Is Game.

Nikolai Patrushev already expressed himself (that means Russia's leadership position) on this AUKUS thing.  RT reports:

A new geopolitical deal that will see the US and UK team up with Australia to station nuclear submarines deep down in the Pacific Ocean is a hostile step aimed not only at Beijing, but at Moscow too, a top Russian official claims. Nikolay Patrushev, the secretary of Russia's Security Council, told the Argumenty i Fakty newspaper on Tuesday that the pact between the three nations, known as AUKUS, will inevitably be yet another military bloc aimed at containing and confronting the two strongest non-Western powers.According to the interview, Patrushev compared the pact to QUAD, a strategic dialogue format between the US, India, Japan, and Australia, designed to strengthen Washington's position across Asia. According to him, the group is “a military-political bloc with a pronounced pro-American character.”“Just the other day, another military bloc was formed in the region – the American-British-Australian AUKUS, which pursues the same goals,” the top official went on. According to him, the new deal, which will see London and Washington hand over the technical know-how for Canberra to develop and deploy nuclear-powered submarines, is a threat to “the entire security architecture in Asia.”
Of course, it is a threat and Russia, being Asian power, I am sure, will aid China in this matter but for now we can only speculate what will Russia do specifically. As I stated before, the immediate focus is on pr. 971 Schuka (NATO Akula-class) SSNs, many of which are being upgraded to SSGNs. China has cash, a lot of it, Russia has technology and it is totally conceivable to see China seeking Russia's assistance in developing advanced SSNs. What forms will it take? We will see soon enough. I will address some tactical and operational issues re: Indian Ocean SLOCs later--here, China, indeed, faces odds stacked against her, since the US Navy can support, at least initially, guerre de course of submarines, including through deployment of CBGs, which will preclude effective actions of China's ASW/Patrol aviation. Base in Pakistan (Gwadar) thus could get a serious boost in turning it into a full blown Chinese naval base and that will help address a serious vulnerability of Indian Ocean SLOCs which for China have an existential importance. 

Meanwhile, refresh your memory with this piece from more than 3 year ago:

Harry J. Kazianis Really Needs A Muscle Relaxant-II, Or China The Omnipotent. 

The issue is NOT new. 

Monday, September 20, 2021

It Is Only Natural.

Let's throw away emotions and feelings and recall what I stated in my video and in discussion several days ago: 

Thanks to Bernhard of Moon of Alabama who does, as usual, an excellent job of monitoring media and analyzing facts, I personally became aware of this by the way of MoA from The Guardian:

Let's take a look on what is at stake here.

1. This is an intensity of a marine traffic in the region around China.

 

As you can see, any kind of nukes (SSNs) based in Australia have an excellent and fast access to SLOCs both in Indian Ocean and into the deep areas of South China Sea. Operations on SLOCs are as old as navies themselves. China, obviously, depends on SLOCs and even 2-3 additional (Australian) SSNs with Harpoons and torpedoes on permanent patrol in the areas of interest can wreck a havoc on the flow of resources for China. They will also attract serious Chinese resources in terms of ASW. I am not going to discuss now purely tactical and operational issues, but in the minds of US planners this all makes sense.

2. Now, to the mechanics of all that. This is Chakra of Indian Navy. 

USSR/Russia and India have been at this "lease" thing since 1980s, with the first SSGN of project 670 officially joining the Indian Navy in 1988. So, nothing new, really, in leasing out state-of-the-art nukes to someone. If Russia and India can do that, US and Australia, who ARE brethren nations, certainly can. So, not really surprising in learning that the US will lease subs to Australia. In fact, emotions aside, it is the only natural way to increase the submarine force against China in such a way that it strains Chinese and PLAN's resources and, in case of war, helps to shut down SLOC's which are still crucial for China. Pure navalism, folks. 

3. Let's take a look at what is available in a short term. Granted, the Australian crews are getting ready or are already in training for running US nukes. I can tell you immediately--do not forget good ol' Los Angeles-class SSNs. Many of them are either in conservation, reserve or are about to be moved there. There are currently, if to believe WiKi 28 active Los Angeles class SSNs and 1 expecting decommissioning. SSNs 768 through 773 are reaching their 30 year old age but are still active and who knows what their fate will be with at least 8 Virginia-class SSNs being either under construction or announced. Those Los Angeles subs will need to go somewhere and this time it might not be to the scrap yard. Couple of early Los Angeles class subs SSN 719 and 723 are also planned for recycle in 2022

So, there are options. It doesn't make France's life easier, for sure, but purely on the military merit, from the shores of Potomac it makes perfect sense. I have to admit, all things considered, it does make at least some sense. Of course, such an approach does not guarantee a success for a number of reasons, but keep in mind that anything based in Perth, as an example, becomes impervious to Chinese medium-range ballistic missiles because neither DF-21 nor DF-17 fly at 5,800 kilometers even when launched from China's south-most point. So, this is another key to this decision. The main issue, however, is this--does the United States think that it can control possible conventional conflict with China that it does not accelerate to a nuclear threshold? That is a huge question to ponder. And yes, China's nuclear subs are not as good as American ones, it is a hard cold fact. What will China do? Ask this question: what will Russia do?  Believe me, it is no less important, if not more. Recall few years back my reaction:

And here is the news, PLAN, for now, doesn't have submarine force which is even remotely competitive both in numbers and quality with the US Navy's submarine force. All bravado on both sides apart, US submarines in the Pacific are overwhelmingly superior to PLAN's nuclear subs (SSKs are a separate issue). Currently the US Navy operates 32 Los Angeles-class + 3 Sea Wolf-class + 15 Virginia-class SSNs = 50 SSNs ALL of whom, including older L.A. class SSNs are superior to anything PLAN can deploy in terms of nukes, which is roughly 9 nuclear subs, only 6 of which could be considered relatively modern (Type 093). Period. Yes, PLAN does deploy a substantial number of conventional SSKs, but again, this fleet of subs is good only for a relatively short distance deployments in defense of own littoral. We are talking here about overwhelming advantage US Navy enjoys over any PLAN's surface or nuclear power submarine force beyond the First Island Chain. I am not even talking here about remote segments of SLOCs. Yes, Chinese are improving, yes, they are gaining both capability (such as destroying US aircraft carriers) and some operational experience, but it takes much more than that to command the seas. I will also avoid describing some info (very reliable one), I just mention it, that testifies against Chinese tactical and operational maturity, for now--I underscore that, for now. But namely for now PLAN, for all US Navy's huge institutional problems, is not a real competitor in one domain, which today defines command of the seas--underwater. US submarine force is simply better, much better and that's the reality, which Admiral Lou should have considered and James Holmes remembered when trying to respond to Chinese naval officer.
And don't tell me that I didn't warn you;)) I sure did, wink, wink. It was only natural for the United States to start leveraging its one of a few remaining and significant advantages in combat technology, submarines, and I am sure people in Beijing and Moscow expected it. I am sure Moscow did. 

Oh, No, No, No, No...

Ria publishes today the review of Le Figaro's article (in fact there are several of them, which is expected, given the circumstances) regarding this whole CLUSTERFAUKUS which discusses this whole issue. But Ria concentrates not on the article but on more than 1200 comments to it (in Russian). One of very many comments by French readers states this:  Une seule solution claquer la porte de l'OTAN ! Even without the translation it is obvious that he (or she) calls on slamming the door on NATO. Others call for distancing from Anglo-Saxondom and removing sanctions on Russia and joining her in whatever form. Well, I have some bad news for French audience of Le Figaro--Russia is not your rebound flick to ease the pain from being dumped by a long time lover who, in addition, promised to get married after many years of engagement. No, no, no, no, this is not how it works. As one Russian commenter summarized the overwhelmingly dominant sentiment on Ria's discussion board:

А оно нам надо? С такими друзьями никаких врагов не надо...  

Translation: Do we really need it? Who needs enemies with such friends...

Exactly. This is how overwhelming majority of Russians thinks today. 

1. Current France and current Russia have zero commonalities culturally and in terms of values cannot be further apart. France since long ago is a playground for alternative lifestyle, multiculturalism (a euphemism for Islamization) and suicidal cultural practices. French intellectual "elites" are much larger in scale likeness of what in Russia is a marginalized freak-show of Russian "liberals" and fifth column. Why would Russia, then, have any interest in "expanding" on these policies by associating herself in any way with a country which only nominally is France, while in reality is a ticking demographic and cultural time bomb? Russia, in French mind, is a backward country which builds Christian cathedrals, declares marriage between the man and the woman sacred in her Constitution, Russians are nationalists and do not allow LGBTQ ideology to roam freely. Russian also shoot to kill terrorists and feel no compunction about it.

2. Russians did not elect Macron, French people did. There are always consequences to actions. Russians hate globalists, French, evidently, make them their Presidents time after time. Each nation deserves the government it elects. If the French government is bad (well, it is--it is utterly globalist, neoliberal and anti-national) it is France's problems and in terms of possibility for any common political approach between Russia and France in case of France deciding to seek rapprochement with Russia (granted, Russia is interested, which I doubt)--well, probability of such an arrangement is approaching if not zero, at least a trivial value. 

3. Removing sanctions from Russia by France changes absolutely nothing because Russia is not suffering from those sanctions at all and if somebody in France still thinks that removing sanctions is a valuable political and economic gesture, they better study what modern Russia is. Here is how France is "important" for Russia economically

Come on people, let's be serious, yes--some Airbus planes, some Renault, some other French stuff, but in a larger scheme of things France barely registers for Russia as an economic partner but the main question is not even this.

4. I understand that French ego is badly hurt currently, but this too will pass and France will soon forget about Russia and will crawl back to her master, where she belongs because France cannot act otherwise--it is not in France's nature. Cultural, political and military DNA of France has been damaged since De Gaulle's departure so much that France my generation used to know is simply not there anymore. 

So, I don't think Russia is interested in any way in France's maneuvering and posturing at this time because Russia has a much much bigger fish to fry and she really doesn't care about being picked up on the rebound, especially by a date which, as Tolstoy noted: "A Frenchman is self-assured because he regards himself personally, both in mind and body, as irresistibly attractive to men and women."  Obviously, France's elites somehow missed this tectonic shift in global power-balance which was ongoing for the last 15 years at least, and did not recognize the fact that France is not that important for a titanic power struggle in the China-Russia-Anglo-Saxon triangle. France traded remnants of her sovereignty in in 2009 by reintegrating into NATO fully and she is not leaving NATO. For that, one has to have a set of balls--a doubtful proposition for current French political class. There are many politicians in France, zero statesmen. But that is the problem of the combined West, not just of France.

P.S. Among numerous comments in Le Figaro I stumbled upon one which proposed that, maybe, Putin will fork money for these French subs. LOL. This is an exhibit A of "irresistibly attractive" syndrome, which is similar to American exceptionalism. Evidently the reader who posted this has zero awareness of Russia's SSK and SSN/SSGN/SSBN programs which dwarf in scale and scope anything France ever did in this field. I hope he posted it in jest. I doubt though.    

Saturday, September 18, 2021

This Issue Is Not Going Away.

Well, then I might as well address it. I am talking about this whole AUKUS affair and France losing huge contact on submarines for Royal Australian Navy. At this stage I am not interested in technical minutiae of this whole scandal, because it is useless anyway to concentrate on technical details of something which may change many times before, and if, it comes to fruition. I am, however, as always, interested in fundamental factors defining the framework. Le Drian and anyone in France' political top can express their frustration and play geopolitical games whatever they want, such as running to India:

It still doesn't change the fact that in the times of a severe, terminal crisis of Pax Americana and Western liberalism, France is not a global superpower and is only important as an attachment to the Anglo-Saxon world which is in a desperate fight for its survival as one of the global power poles. Simple as that. France is simply not that important for this existential struggle. In the end, D.C. and London care about themselves first, however distorted and delusional this care is, and Paris is viewed merely as a "food" and will be consumed if necessity and opportunity arise. You all may counter that France has her own nuclear deterrent, she has Renault and is the home for Airbus, she has her own space program etc. Right. It all is present, but let's not forget the definition, not West's political pseudo science BS, of global power. Right, the definition is Jeffrey Barnett's (not to be mistaken with Corelli Barnett) 14 points and allow me to remind you what they are. Barnett listed them in the US Army War College quarterly Parameteres in 1994.  No matter how France's achievements are considered, some of them with well deserved respect, France simply does not dominate any of those 14 points. 

France does not dominate access to space, US, Russia, China and India do, France doesn't control Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOC), the United States, China and Russia do, France certainly does not provide the majority of the finished goods, China does and France certainly does not dominate the high-tech weapons industry, US and Russia do. Even if to imagine that tomorrow Marine Nationale will add two other nuclear powered aircraft carriers to its order of battle, this still will not make France a global power. Militarily and economically France is a second tier power, which surrendered part of her sovereignty to supranational organizations such as NATO and EU and thus fails in the most important criterion defining global or superpower--fully independent and protected global policies. France also is not capable to create and maintain any kind of meaningful alliance on her own. The United States and Russia can, while China, due to her economic and demographic enormity, is an alliance in and of herself. Plus China and Russia DO have alliance between each-other. 

So, in this case, being a second tier regional power, France cannot expect her interests to be seriously considered when one talks about such immense, financially, projects as AUKUS. Alliances are created not only against someone but also for an exclusive access to capitals and markets, especially weapons markets, within those alliances. In this particular case France is an outsider and no matter what hyperbole frustrated French politicians use describing "betrayal" of France by Anglo-Saxons, it is what it is. Scott Ritter may well be right when describing this AUKUS thingy as: this is a story of geopolitically driven military procurement gone mad. But when one considers US' economic state which can only be described as FUBAR or clusterfuck, all means are good for maintaining a cash flow and France was simply removed on the road to this cash flow. Simple as that. Desperate times, desperate measures. Truism, really. 

So, no matter how much we discuss technical details of this whole circus, some lessons from it are already obvious and here I subscribe to every word in Ritter's conclusion:

But the fact remains that the US has no meaningful military counter to China, the UK is not capable of sustaining any credible military presence in the Pacific, and Australia cannot afford to acquire and operate a force of eight nuclear-powered attack submarines. The Australian nuclear submarine project is a dangerous joke that only further exacerbates the existing geopolitical crisis with China by injecting a military dimension which will never see the light of day. 
This whole AUKUS thing, as I already stated previously, is a great indicator of a waning power of the United States, which in desperate attempts to preserve the remnants of her once self-proclaimed global hegemony, will go to any length, hopefully, short of nuclear war, and if it takes to humiliate and "sacrifice" France, so be it. Western Europe should get ready to be, as I wrote for many years (I quote one from 2 years ago):

Macron makes one mistake here. Well, several mistakes, actually. For starters "Pushing Russia from Europe" was not a "strategic mistake"--that was the plan and main objective of Washington, headed then by Obama and being continuously implemented now by Trump Administration. Moreover, "pushing Russia" out is not just about Russia, but by implication about Europe itself. Europe as it exists today is of no interest to Russia in any metaphysical sense, except for purely economic interest as a market, but majority of Russians are counting their blessings now because of this "pushing out" largely succeeding. Europe, meanwhile, is a sacrificial lamb for the United States, which, in a desperate attempt to save herself, will demolish Europe economically because European elites are a pathetic parody on a required political leadership, some of them are outright imbeciles, not to mention that vast swathes of them are effectively products of the American selection. So, no--let Europe deal with the US, or vice-versa, and keep Russia out of it. 

So, don't tell me that I didn't warn you. Oh, come on, the United States needs to eat too. The moment France reintegrated into NATO fully in 2009, a process championed by then President Sarkozy, it was all over for France. Too bad they didn't see it coming. Well, they see it now. As they say: better late than never. Tolstoy saw it long time ago:

A Frenchman is self-assured because he regards himself personally, both in mind and body, as irresistibly attractive to men and women. An Englishman is self-assured, as being a citizen of the best-organized state in the world, and therefore as an Englishman always knows what he should do and knows that all he does as an Englishman is undoubtedly correct. An Italian is self-assured because he is excitable and easily forgets himself and other people. A Russian is self-assured just because he knows nothing and does not want to know anything, since he does not believe that anything can be known. The German’s self-assurance is worst of all, stronger and more repulsive than any other, because he imagines that he knows the truth—science—which he himself has invented but which is for him the absolute truth. 

Well, what can I say. It is the 21st Century and France learned absolutely nothing since her last Titan and Hero departed in 1969. Or, rather, was forced out by what many still consider a color revolution organized by the US. Time to face consequences.  

Meanwhile Russia continues to build those missile corvettes as if there is no tomorrow, the latest one, Grad (Hail), was floated out at Zelenodolsk yesterday (video in Russian). 

With new 4,500 kilometer range 3M14M coming up, these ships can pretty much strike anything in Europe from some river or lake deep within Russia's territory. Just in case. In other rfelated news:

Iran will get a large number of fully Russified SSJ-100Rs. MS-21 is in line, once Russia satisfies her internal commercial aviation needs.

Friday, September 17, 2021

This Is Huge.

All participants of summit of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) signed the document about initiation of the procedure for acceptance (admitting) of Iran to SCO. 

ТЕГЕРАН, 17 сентября. /ТАСС/. Участники саммита Шанхайской организации сотрудничества (ШОС), который проходил в Душанбе, подписали документ о сотрудничестве, предполагающий начало процесса приема Ирана в организацию. Об этом было объявлено в пятницу в ходе саммита. "О начале процедуры приема Исламской республики Иран в члены ШОС", - объявили название подписанного документа. Ранее президент РФ Владимир Путин на саммите ШОС заявил, что Россия поддерживает начало процедуры приема Ирана в организацию.

Translation: TEHERAN, September 17. / TASS /. Participants of the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which took place in Dushanbe, signed a document on cooperation, suggesting the beginning of the process of admitting Iran to the organization. This was announced on Friday during the summit. "On the beginning of the procedure for admitting the Islamic Republic of Iran to the SCO membership," the title of the signed document was announced. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the SCO summit that Russia supports the beginning of the procedure for admitting Iran to the organization.

We knew it was coming, but geopolitical ramifications of that are enormous. Multipolar world is here, it is now and we can only guess what work is being done behind the scene for unification of a colossal Eurasian land-mass and market into a single geopolitical entity. Keep in mind the size of this whole thing--it dwarfs both EU and North America in every single metric including, which is hugely important, militarily. Now recent words by Borisov about India being "in-line" for S-500 get new meaning. But then again, I am writing on Eurasian security perimeter for years. 

It is Friday, alright, and I mourn the untimely death of Norm Macdonald, a real comic and a closet intellectual. His impression of Bob Dole and his SNL Weekend Update in times when SNL was genuinely funny are immortalized today thanks to internet and YouTube. I salute you Norm. 

You were more than just a great comic, you were a great human.

Thursday, September 16, 2021

Karmik Bitchitude.

Maria Zakharova certainly knows physical principles of boomerang and reacting to Australia "choosing" US-British nuclear subs instead of French diesel ones and we are talking about gigantic multi-billion dollar contract. 

Translation: MOSCOW, September 16 - RIA Novosti. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova, commenting on the breaking the contract between Australia and France for submarines, reminded Paris of their decision in the situation with the production of the Mistral aircraft carriers.

Ah, the karma, what a bitch. Thankfully, Russia never got her Mistrals and that was a huge blessing in disguise, but then again, as I state in my video, it is about both shrinking financial pie of the combined West and about dropping non Anglo-Saxon "ally" of France in favor of the increase of the "cohesion" of Anglo-Saxondom in a face of a lot of geopolitical centrifugal forces exacerbated by the Washington's desire to "counter" China. 

Now French complain: 

France's foreign minister has spoken of his "anger" and "bitterness" and has criticized the US and Britain, after the allies agreed a deal to supply nuclear submarines to Australia, undoing Paris' $40-billion deal for French subs. "I am angry and bitter. This isn't done between allies," Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told franceinfo radio on Thursday morning, after the leaders of Australia, the UK and US convened a virtual press conference on Wednesday night, announcing the AUKUS pact and the delivery of conventionally-armed nuclear-power submarines to Canberra.The delivery of the nuclear subs under the AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) pact means Canberra will scrap a 2016 deal with French firm Naval Group to upgrade its fleet with more diesel submarines. The scrapped deal was reportedly worth $40 billion."This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr Trump used to do," Le Drian stated. He also took aim at Canberra, "it's a stab in the back. We created a relationship of trust with Australia and that trust has been broken." 
I am really impressed with France's insouciance in the times leading to this breach of the contract--did Elysee Palace even try to figure out a pecking order recently? Nah, with people like Macron trying to play a big honcho, it is not surprising that France is bitter because she was decisively shown her proper place of a US lap-dog and that of merely regional power, despite France having her own nuclear deterrent. Macron and his people better wake up and face the reality or, for that matter, learn France's recent history when France actually mattered--yes, yes, I am talking about the times of Charles de Gaulle and France's independent foreign policy. Today, France is just another EU and NATO country living with the phantom pains of past greatness, with the rare exception of football. One had to ask the question, really, on why UK decided to leave the EU? For all degeneracy of British "elites" one cannot deny them some level of intuition and cynicism when deciding which camp to join: doomed EU with a bunch of continental nobodies when taken separately or the United States, which, while in a very rough clusterfuckish shape, at least has some shot at some future, plus London loves to think about itself that it matters, and within the framework of Anglo-Saxondom it does, unlike it is the case when global power balance is considered. 
 
Unlike the UK, France has nobody to run to. Moscow now puts a lot of popcorn in those Kremlin microwaves and is preparing for a circus and a delightful time of schadenfreude. I would. Especially now, when S-500s started to arrive to the front line units (in Russian) and if that wasn't enough, Borisov dropped another bomblet of sorts, when stated that potentially India may become a buyer of S-500s but only after Russia's Air Defense will have all of its needs satisfied (in Russian). After that he proceeded to underscore that Russia will preserve her lead in hyper-sonic weapons and with S-500s now in serial production and being procured to the front line units it becomes clear that any attempts to place any type of low orbit vehicles (that is why the Starlink constellation of mini-satellites is being developed really) and control them there will be, in case of, God forbid, war, stopped and any combat assets destroyed. These are the quickening times and Australia getting (or having them shoved it down her throat) nuclear subs is but one of the increasingly manifest signs of a new multi-polar world taking shape.  

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

I Love It. Great Primer.

For people who really want to know basics, not some protocol of modern Combat Informational Control System doing it for you with sensors feeding data straight to it, here is some great stuff on early ASW. USSR also had a huge number of similar films. So, enjoy, it is very basic, without any math--the physics and mathematics remained essentially the same since then, technology changed. But it is a great intro for those who want to have some visual representation of aerial ASW. I know one person here who will have a blast watching it;))) And he is my good friend. 

Remember, this was the time when the officer and operators were doing actual "signal processing". I love this polygraph MAD (Magnetic Anomaly Detector). Enjoy.

Understanding Is Good.

Like General John Hyten understands. Especially when talking to such a "think-buggy" as Brookings, known to be a nest of exceptionalist and neocon ideas. 

Speaking at a meeting hosted by Washington think-tank The Brookings Institution on Monday, Vice Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General John E. Hyten warned of the risks if conflicts spiral out of control, and expressed hope that cooler heads can prevail. "We never fought the Soviet Union," he said. "As for the great powers, our goal is to never go to war with China and Russia." According to Hyten, such an event would "destroy the world and the global economy. It will be bad for everyone, and we have to ensure that we do not go down that path." However, the general went on, previous deals between Moscow and NATO after the fall of the USSR concluded "Russia was not a threat any more." At the same time, however, he alleges that the Russians were "modernizing their entire nuclear arsenal." This, he says, was because "I think they were worried about the US."

Actually, give it up for Hyten--he talks totally common sense things and, what is really important, and I know it for sure, neither Russia nor China want the war with the United States. In fact, his conclusion on modernization of Russia's nuclear arsenal is spot on--Russia was worried about the US. Russia still worries about the US, this time because of a major clusterfuck the country has become and Russians are keenly aware that bat shit crazy element in US decision-making circuit is still present and one cannot completely exclude a possibility of those people pushing the United States to the brink of unleashing a war of desperation. Good that Hyten speaks to one such institution where neocon ideas are popular due to military ignorance of people exercising those and the words of General Hyten can only be commended. But as I am on record non-stop, the remaining expertise about the outside world rests today primarily, not exclusively, with some segments in the US military, who, by the virtue of their profession, have understanding of a horrendous price if the United States decides to unleash a suicidal war. 

Russians worry, alright. They train today, at Zapad-2021 maneuvers, a creation of a local AD network, designed to repel a massive attack on Russia's forces in case of real war. 

For those who may ask, S1 Pantsirs have a ground-attack capability and their guns are actually extremely effective against armored ground targets and personnel. In related stream of military porn from Zapad-2021 remotely controlled and robotic combat means (such as Uran-9 which was improved after Syria's underwhelming performance) and some new combat vehicles such as BMD-4. 

As they say,
Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum.  Especially in times like these we have on our hands. 
 

It does look real hm... skynettish. But then again, it is 21st Century, after all. Russia finally recognized that you either are powerful or you are a slave. Russians don't like to be slaves and that is why they build ultra-modern armed forces. 

Now, I want to thank all those people who became my patrons on Patreon. I hope our relations will be long-lasting and to the benefit of both parties. I hope to start making new videos by the end of this week. But, yes, I will need all support I can get to develop my teeny-weeny media "empire", especially after reading materials such as this (thanks to Bernhard from Moon of Alabama for finding these "pearls"), damn, the delusion is strong on this one. 

The new age of American power. Despite forecasts of decline following the Afghanistan withdrawal, the US military is planning another century of global domination.

You see, this is why I welcome sober and realistic opinions of real professionals, such as General Hyten, especially spoken to those who still reside in their make-believe world of America's omnipotence.

Monday, September 13, 2021

Some Dollars and Cents.

I think, guys, you can support me now at Patreon. And I don't know how it works yet but my page, I think, is:

 https://www.patreon.com/martyanov

So, this is still an ongoing process, but I think I will keep all of what I do totally public for anyone while I'll observe how financial support may develop and depending on what I get as a support, if anything, I will just continue to keep it fully public. So, here it is--please, become a patron. 

Sunday, September 12, 2021

Why Are They Doing This?

Scott Ritter penned a piece yesterday. Naturally it deals with 9/11 and has a title which anyone in the United States who still has operational brain would have subscribed to: 20 years after 9/11, I no longer recognize my country. The US has become a malignant narcissist, infecting all it encounters. In it, Scott arrives to the conclusion which I speak and write about for the last decade:

Well, give it up for Alexis de Tocqueville who recognized this trait almost 200 years ago and since then things didn't get much better. And when you thought that you reached the bottom, somebody knocks from beneath. Enter Mr. Ochmanek and RAND who came up with a "study" recently which in anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of the modern warfare inspires only one question: do they issue hard drugs in RAND as part of employees' benefits, or do they procure this mind-altering shit on their own and then are tripping on it for weeks? When I say that the US "expert community" is a laughing stock, I mean it. Enter: 

A Strong Ally Stretched Thin. An Overview of France's Defense Capabilities from a Burdensharing Perspective

The summary to this... thing reads like that:  

The French military currently is one of Western Europe's most capable, and it boasts a full range of capabilities that enable it to engage in the full spectrum of operations, including high-intensity conventional warfare against a peer adversary. In this report, RAND researchers examine the role that the French military might play as a coalition partner in a hypothetical high-intensity conventional conflict in Europe. Researchers drew on a wide range of publications in French and English, as well as on conversations with French defense experts to understand not just the French military's capabilities and capacity to wage war in general but also its ability to wage high-intensity conventional warfare in particular.

I don't know why they conduct those "studies", but evidently neither "researchers" in RAND  nor "defense experts" in France have any clue on what modern conventional warfare is. Not surprising. Obviously a modest generalization by RAND about "high-intensity conventional warfare" in Eastern Europe is a euphemism for war with Russia. Here is verbatim:

The 2019–2025 Military Programming Law (Loi de Programmation Militaire, or LPM) puts a strong emphasis on modernizing some of the equipment that would be used in a large-scale, conventional contingency; improving the readiness of existing equipment; and boosting troops’ morale and training. However, some gaps will remain beyond 2025 because France trades depth for breadth—France is able to conduct military operations across the full spectrum of conflict, but it does not have the ability to sustain the fight during a protracted conflict against a highly capable adversary, such as Russia.

Obviously, one has to explain why France would want to fight Russia. RAND immediately waxes geopolitical and concludes that, yeah, France is not really ready to fight Russia, but as a "coalition"... Sure, it is called NATO, or rather the United States and a collection of its lap-dogs. This is on page 27 and after that a familiar pseudo "policy" and "operational-strategic" fodder by RAND tries to cover up stupidity and incompetence of people who write this idiocy. Nobody in RAND, literally, former US generals and other officers, let alone political "science" majors, have any clue on what they will be doing once Kinzhals or 3M14Ms will start flying into the windows of not just Elysee Palace, in case France decides to commit a suicide as a nation, but D.C. as a "decision-making center" may experience serious stone rearranging, all that without the use of nuclear weapons. Moreover, even "coalition warfare", meaning the United States decides to deploy force large enough not to be obliterated immediately to Europe, one has to ask a question--what for? 

Obviously Russians are not going to attack Europe. Why? To gain what? In case of NATO deciding to start a war, no matter what the United States does, Russians will break through to Kaliningrad in a matter of couple of days at the most, no matter what the US deploys in Baltic States. For anyone who knows how modern combined operations are conducted it is not a secret. Even RAND admits on pages 70 and 71. 

Wargaming and analysis reveal serious gaps in NATO’s ability to blunt a large-scale Russian attack.3 Given NATO’s current posture, the allies could confront a situation in which their ground forces were badly outnumbered and outgunned by the force that Russia could deploy to the borders of the Baltic States within one to two  weeks. NATO’s air forces would find it difficult and time-consuming to suppress the network of surface-to-air missile systems that Russia would deploy in the region, limiting NATO ability to provide fire support to the ground defense. Air bases, command and control centers, logistics concentrations, lines of communication, air- and seaports of debarkation, and other rear-area assets could come under attack from Russian ballistic and cruise missiles. Military space constellations that provide reconnaissance; communications; and position, navigation, and timing services could be disrupted by cyber, electronic jamming, and kinetic attacks. In short, NATO nations concerned about the possibility of Russian threats to allies along NATO’s eastern flank have ample reasons to be dissatisfied with the current situation.

Well, if you understand that, then why single France out specifically? It doesn't matter if France fights Russia alone or as part of NATO, the result will be absolutely the same, NATO and US have zero capability to repel or even blunt salvos of long-range stand-off weapons not just on NATO's prepositioning areas, but on France's and US proper naval bases and military infrastructure. As Vladimir Trukhan, a retired colonel of Russia's General Staff put it bluntly few months ago: "We don't even sweat about NATO". Plus no NATO serviceman ever experienced the effects of a a fire impact from a salvo of, say, Iskander missiles or battlefield weapons such as 9A52-4 Tornado and this, folks, is nothing like counter-insurgency. A single battery of said Tornados can dispose of everything living (there will be no survivors, those who may accidentally survive will envy the dead) on the area of 32 Hectares in a single salvo. Just to give you an idea--32 Hectares (around 80 acres) is the area or roughly 64 football fields. There is a reason ISIS was terrified in Syria whenever there were operational Tornados anywhere. Here is how it looked in Syria. Watch it on YouTube.

So, this is how a company to battalion level unit is wiped out in one (not full, at that) salvo and did French or Americans fight anyone who can inflict casualties numbering in thousands not just in months but in hours? Nope. Colonel Wilkerson estimates that the level of casualties will be around 40,000 in the first week. I think this is the bottom (the base) number. Modern combined arms formations are easily detectable and with NATO not having serious troops (войсковая) air defense, they become just sitting ducks in case Russians, with their crank wire phones, old radios, and CRT monitors on their XT computers with 5.25" floppy diskettes, decide to do something about NATO troops' concentration at Russia's borders. 

Then why come up with this "study" which is based on sheer delusion? I think the answer is two fold: as always to push for more money for Pentagon, but also to send a signal to Europeans that the United States still runs NATO and the closing paragraph in this study gives a hint: 

Although transatlantic relations have worsened, Macron has continued engagement with the United States, and the United States and France continue to enjoy a strong defense relationship through joint operations, personnel exchanges, multilateral exercises, intelligence sharing, and other activities. France’s 2017 Strategic Review describes the United States as a “fundamental partner, due to the convergence of their defense and security interests as well as a strong bilateral relation in the operational and intelligence domains.” France is also keen on developing interoperability (as evidenced by its concern that the future FCAS be interoperable with the F-35), as it recognizes that it will need partners for most missions, particularly high-end ones. Although specific modes of cooperation would have to be devised for each capability in ways that preserve the interests of both U.S. and French defense industry firms involved, such cooperation could help France address its challenges in fighting high-end conventional wars more quickly. 

There you go. Neither US nor NATO are capable to fight a "peer" and survive. They know this, but the gravy train of "defense" contracts needs to run and to make sure it does run, RAND needs to pretend that it knows how to fight...Russia, if more gravy is poured over stale Pentagon's strategies and war experiences. That's narcissism of the highest order multiplied by greed and delusion. That is why they are doing this. Meanwhile Russia and Belarus, plus others, conduct real life war games, maybe because Russia doesn't have computers and wargaming software;)) (wink, wink) and the message is unmistakable--Russia is not going to be taking Berlin, Paris or any other European capital this time, she will simply destroy West's capability to wage a war, including by the means of a ruthless extermination of NATO's military personnel because this is how real wars are fought.

Just some video.

Saturday, September 11, 2021

In Short 20 Years.

I will not say anything which is not being said and will not be said on this grim anniversary of 9/11. Nor elaborations on how the United States lost everything it had going for it prior to 9/11 are necessary. Everything what made the United States attractive--from liberty, law and opportunity--was lost or is being curtailed as I type this. It is even larger tragedy than what we all experienced on that morning (for some it was evening) on September 11 when thousands of innocent people died. Apart from never-ending discussion on who really was behind the atrocity of 9/11, we should always ask how it all ended up with the United States unleashing utterly unjustified and inevitably failed, and humiliating for the US, military campaigns and how the US managed to squander every last iota of the good will around the world it experienced in the immediate aftermath of the worst terrorist act in American history.  

They will not show you anymore a full 100,000 spectators stadium in Tehran standing in minute of silence for the victims of 9/11. This video initially was shown on most US MSM in the aftermath. Most Americans also do not know that Russia made a gift to New York of a monument to the victims of terrorism. Most still don't know how much support and aid was offered to the US, to the point that some senator proclaimed that "The Cold War is truly over" after seeing a makeshift memorial at the steps of the US Embassy in Moscow. Not only those things have been betrayed and thrown out, you will even have difficulty finding those pictures and videos nowadays. Minitrue knows its craft--we have always been at war with Eastasia. But what we do know for sure is that the result of 9/11 is catastrophic for the United States and it spurred the emergence of a new world which has very different ideas than utterly incompetent and corrupt US "elites" on how things work. In this sense we can conclude that the United States have been defeated in whatever they undertook after 9/11 in pretense of having "a plan". Yes, we saw how it worked, and I quote from my latest book: 

9/11 exposed a complete inability of the US political class to govern and we all live with this today. It promises nothing good. The America's "expert community" is a laughing stock of the world and I can count the number of America's terminal ills 9/11 exposed until hell freezes over. Yes, this is how bad it is. That is why Russia is forced to do today what she does in order to prevent the United States from unleashing the unthinkable. Zapad-2021 started on September 9th. 

Militaries from Belarus, India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Mongolia, among others participate in what is titled a Russian-Belorussian Combined Strategic Exercises Zapad-2021.   

Unification of Russia and Belarus got additional boost with recent meeting of Putin and Lukashenko, with the latter having no other option but to continue integrate Belorussian economy into the Russian one. Seeing all this, apart from traditional hysteria in European media, a former US Ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst promised Russia "severe sanctions" if Russia decides to "annex Ukraine" (in Russian). Here are the people who run US foreign policy--completely detached from the reality, apart from being utterly illiterate in Russia, her history, economy, military--you name it. Obviously Ukraine will disintegrate eventually but Russia is not in a hurry to take so many hostile freeloaders on her balance. But then again, read what Tommy Franks said about Douglas Feith. Applies equally to most people in US today who continue to run the country into the ground even in a face of serious and imperative lessons of 9/11 which have never been learned. I can only bow my head for a minute of silence remembering innocent victims and heroic NYC cops and firefighters and simple people who demonstrated the best of the American soul and heroism that horrible day, not knowing that 20 years later we will mourn not just people, but the loss of a country.

Friday, September 10, 2021

Is It A Supernova? Friday!

I am on record that 1970s-1980s in terms of music were the best, because they had so much talent in them. We have now empirical evidence of people bypassing this BS of 1990s and 2000s and many looking back at the roots, when music was beautiful, women-gorgeous, and people actually could play and write some excellent melodies. ABBA evidently unclogged something. Iron Maiden are back with some awesome music:

Whitesnake suddenly felt the need to release an awesome music few hours back.  
These are those winds of freedom we felt then, when we could call things with their real names. As I said, I will write on a gigantic significance of what ABBA did exposing mediocrity of the modern world later. It is a Supernova of Western Civilization which blows out those elements which later create new galaxies and planet systems.

Come to think about it--yes, the grass was greener....

Thursday, September 9, 2021

My Video.

 First one. Intro on Afghanistan. 

Opinions, do you understand my blabbering and issues of this nature?


Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Zakharova HAS To Express Indignation.

This is her job, she gets paid for it, but I am sure she is keenly aware of what is going on, and the lexicon used behind closed doors is different. Some terrorists from Mejlis (a separatist terrorist organization of Crimean Tatars which is based in Ukraine) blew up gas pipe in diversionary "operation" and were apprehended by FSB the next day. Zakharova reacts:

"Известны ли детали этих чудовищных происшествий западным столицам? Да. Известны. Вашингтон и Брюссель все знают и молчат, а тем самым как минимум потворствуют, если не соучаствуют", — подчеркнула дипломат.Она напомнила, что после инцидента пресс-секретарь Госдепартамента США Нед Прайс заявил о "репрессиях" против "Меджлиса"*, потребовав освободить диверсантов. В свою очередь, официальный представитель Евросоюза по внешней политике Петер Стано призвал выполнять обязательства по международному праву российскую, а не украинскую сторону, добавила Захарова.
Translation: "Are the details of these monstrous incidents known to the Western capitals? Yes. They are known. Washington and Brussels know everything and are silent, and thus at least condone, if not complicit," the diplomat emphasized. She recalled that after the incident, the press secretary of the US State Department, Ned Price, announced "reprisals" against the "Mejlis" *, demanding the release of the saboteurs. In turn, the official representative of the European Union for foreign policy Peter Stano called on the Russian, and not the Ukrainian side to fulfill the obligations under international law, Zakharova added.
 
Maria, of course they are complicit. Moreover, this was, is and will be the MO of the West against Russia in coming years. It cannot be otherwise because in the open military conflict the West will be annihilated. Combined West and Islamic terrorism are connected by the umbilical cord and we can easily remember combined West's schadenfreude each time Chechen or Arab wahabis killed many Russians. The more, the better. If it is a maternity ward taken by "freedom fighters" who kill pregnant women and children, fine. Take the school hostage and then slaughter hundreds of kids--the more, the merrier. So, please, Maria, such a small thing as a terrorist act on the gas-pipe. I am sure many in State Department and Brussels are not happy. Couldn't those "saboteurs" have taken a kindergarten? That would make many people in D.C., Paris and Brussels happy. I am sure Le Figaro and Washington Post with The Hill would have written many condemning articles. You know, condemning Russia and Russians. Hey, nothing personal--just business. 

French cement giant Lafarge, charged with “crimes against humanity” over paying Islamic State to keep its Syrian plant running, had been informing the country’s spy agencies about its ties with terrorists, leaked papers revealed.According to a batch of official French documents obtained by Turkish Anadolu news agency, Lafarge representatives have held multiple meetings with domestic, foreign and military intelligence services during the Syrian conflict. The French spy agencies were accused of having used the company’s relationship with Islamic State (IS, Daesh, formerly ISIS/ISIL) and other militant groups to keep up to date with the events on the ground in Syria. They also refrained from warning the cement maker that its ties with terrorists were a crime, according to the agency.
You see how simple? Now, another matter is that we are dealing here with not only morally damaged people who do not know right from wrong--an increasingly defining feature of Western political and "intellectual" elites--but with people with obvious mental issues. You can see it for yourself what kind of human material US "elites" are made of by reading recent "opinion" in Politico of one of the W's minions.

Opinion | What I Wish the U.S. Had Done About Putin Years Ago — And What Biden Should Do No.The U.S. has long avoided punishing the Russian leader in the misplaced hopes of cooperating with a regime that only seeks instability.

This is why I am on record constantly that Russia-West relations have no future--only a balancing geopolitical power act in which Russia will increasingly work toward creating such circumstances which will allow Russia to stay insulated form the West and impervious to economic and cultural cataclysms which are already consuming Europe and North America. Moscow knows that the West as we knew it is over and that it will become increasingly hostile to Russia with West's power waning . This process is irreversible and it already manifests itself across the whole spectrum of West's activities ranging from real economy, politics, intellectual development and warfare. Well, nothing new, really. Russians have been always viewed as inferior and, as any untermensch, have been considered a fair game. So, Maria HAS to express indignation but the number of people in the West with who Russia can hold a rational conversation is diminishing with an incredible speed and civilization paths of the West and Russia are diverging and it is all for the better. 
 
You see, numbers do not lie: 

True: Trade between Russia and the EU decreased by 21% from 2019 to 2020

The trend will continue, especially with Russia's import substitution program kicking in for real and Europeans eventually losing out to climate and environment fanatics, who already are changing the face of European economy. No worries, Russia, at some point, will express indignation and will leave West to its devices, hopefully, behind the new Iron Curtain around Europe, while the US... well, that is a complex issue.