No politics for today, just got back from a long drive (pleasant occasion, nothing is wrong), so...
Friday, April 16, 2021
Thursday, April 15, 2021
Well.... fishy from the get go, not in the US where truth doesn't exists in and around Washington D.C. and around studios of the main propaganda outlets such as MSNBC, CBS, CNN--you know them all.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House said Thursday that the intelligence community does not have conclusive evidence that Russian intelligence operatives encouraged the Taliban to attack American troops in Afghanistan. The assessment, revealed Thursday as the U.S. announced a host of new sanctions on the Russian government, undermines one of the sharpest attacks Joe Biden and other Democrats leveled against former President Donald Trump during the 2020 White House race. Biden repeatedly attacked Trump on the campaign trail for not standing up to Russian President Vladimir Putin despite his administration being aware of intelligence suggesting Russian agents were offering bounties to the Taliban. But on Thursday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that after a review of those classified reports, the intelligence community determined it had only “low to moderate confidence” in their authenticity. She said that was due in part to the ways in which the intelligence was obtained, including from interrogations of Afghan detainees.
Ahhh, no. It is not "low to moderate confidence", those reports promoted by DNC and Biden are a complete bunk because:
1. If Russia would want to really do a bloodletting in Afghanistan, she has a number of tools to do so ranging from clandestine ops against US troops to a direct supply of said Taliban (which is officially designated a terrorist organization in Russia) or other groups with all kinds of toys which would increase US casualties there. After all, all kinds of groups are dealing in weapons in Afghanistan today, many of those weapons from old storage bases in former Soviet Middle Asia. So, you get my drift. In other words, if Russia would want to inflict the pain, the US would feel it. The main question is: what for? Anyone has any rational reasons for Russia to do so? I don't.
2. Russia is, in fact, interested in the US staying in Afghanistan not only for the reasons of, granted current disastrous Russian-American relations' background, parading US war in there as an Exhibit A of how not to prosecute the war, but also because Russia is sincerely interested in the United States tying for now, granted grossly inefficiently, any fundamentalist Islamic forces which otherwise would start their moves Northward from Afghanistan to former Soviet Middle Asian republics, now independent states. In this sense the US and Russia are unlikely allies, granted US propensity to support all kinds of terrorists.
Now even Biden's own "intelligence" community effectively says that the whole story had the same veracity as that of Iraq's WMD program or of the Michael Bay movies being documentaries. Psaki's statement like this, however, puts things in a funny light:
Psaki added that U.S. intelligence has evidence that Russian military intelligence, known as the GRU, interacts with individuals in Afghan criminal networks.
Ahh, what about the US being in cahoots with people who massacred almost 3,000 innocent Americans on 9/11? Just saying.
But, obviously, as US judiciary goes, it is Iran which committed 9/11, right?
So, do you understand now why Vladimir Putin didn't accept Joe Biden's "invitation":
Why even bother? To talk about what, we omit now obvious who? The US ran itself into the military-diplomatic clusterfuck completely on own volition when trying to play chicken around Ukraine with very wrong people, then recalled that Russia has rather competent armed forces, and suddenly it is all about saving face, America's. Well, Russia's diplomacy is much older than the United States as a country and Russians fought enemies much tougher than America. I think, Kremlin's decision to avoid talking to Biden or, rather, those who control him, is a solid decision and the ensuing tawdry political show in D.C. and Brussels is fun to observe. As for new sanctions imposed on Russia, as I referred to famous Russian rare-earth element called boltium few years ago, you all may refresh description of this really rare element of Periodic Table here, how Russian element boltium interacts with another element, known in the West--sanctionium (in Russian), wink, wink. This was three years ago, since then boltium, for some reason, increased its corrosive action on sanctionium and many still cannot understand why.
So, let Biden's Administration work hard on "deescalation and diplomatic process" with Russia. I am sure they are hard at work now and are desperately trying to count days before Russia finishes with her military exercise at her Western Border and will allow the US to claim a diplomatic success with "dissolving" the situation. Sure. Meanwhile, are there ANY competent people inside the Beltway left, not poisoned by a dangerous rare-earth element which exists only inside the Beltway--sanctimonium? Just wondering.
Wednesday, April 14, 2021
Alexander Mercouris gives a good explanation on the diplomatic situation around Ukraine and as I say and write for years: before any diplomatic moves always look at the military capabilities of the parties to this activity.
West, being culturally and politically superficial, is, obviously, all about the face and projecting outward of all kinds of pathlogies as a norm, so the projection of utter incompetence of its diplomacy and strategic planning is OK, in West's mind. Exposing that it is a domain filled amateurs and morons is not, even they understand that--they don't like to look weak and incompetent, despite these two being their defining traits. For the students of late Zbiginew Brzezinski pseudo-scientific geopolitical fantasies it took "merely" 20 years to figure out that Russia wants to be left alone but if need be, she will enforce this regime for herself. I am sure such a realization created a cultural shock when Brussels and D.C. started to suspect that Russia doesn't "want" Ukraine. What Russia wants is for this country to rot and implode without excrement from this implosion hitting Russia. West's paying for the clean up of this clusterfuck is also in Russian plans for Ukrainian Bantustan.
It is a shocking development and revelation for the West since Brzezinski's geopolitical Bible revealed that Russia wants an empire and that such an empire is impossible without Ukraine. In fact, it was separation from Ukraine, and other freeloading former Soviet republics, which spurred Russia's revival. But then again....ahem. The "gas station masquerading as a country" with economy "left in tatters" and being "smaller than the economy of Spain". You all know the routine. But while at it:
The upward revision for Russia came as the IMF revealed a more optimistic forecast for the global economy amid vaccine rollouts. The fund now expects it to expand by 6% in 2021. The fund said that Russia’s fiscal policy was countercyclical in 2020. It also revised the figures for the crisis year, when Russia, like most countries, implemented lockdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. According to its latest estimates, the Russian economy shrank 3.1%, not the previously reported 3.6%. “There will be some degree of consolidation in 2021 in line with economic recovery, and the deficit is likely to come back to the fiscal rule’s limit in 2022,” the IMF said.... The IMF improved projections for the Russian economy shortly after the World Bank did the same. However, the World Bank is less optimistic, projecting the country’s GDP to grow by 3.3% this year and 3.4% next year.
Well, just to give some comparison. Europe's "economic locomotive", Germany that is, sees the 28th month in a row of Germany's real economy (industrial processing and production) shrinking. That gives one a bit of insight into Russia's rather cool attitude to economic ties to Europe in a sense of seeing a rather grim mid to long-term picture of Europe's economy. So, here is the deal for today.
Tuesday, April 13, 2021
From Whiskey and Gunpowder. A must read tribute by great American mind to Yuri Gagarin and the first step for humanity into space.
In related news, Biden calls "killer Putin" and offers to hold a summit to discuss you know...that thing(c), whatever that is. Putin should be very cautious when meeting good ol' (literally) Joe, since if Biden, God forbids, dies, Putin will be blamed because he is, you know, a killer.
WASHINGTON/MOSCOW (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden called on Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to reduce tensions stirred by a Russian military build-up on Ukraine's border and proposed a summit of the estranged leaders to tackle a raft of disputes. The White House and the Kremlin reported only the second conversation between the two since Biden took office in January, after Western officials urged Moscow to end the build-up and Russia, in words recalling the Cold War, said its "adversary" should keep U.S. warships well away from the Crimea region.
I mean, it is a good development, no doubt about it, it is better to talk than fight, plus Russia is really leaving West for good, after Lavrov's confirmation in his interview to Iranian IRNA yesterday (in Russian) that Russia basically is ready to discard Western pay systems such as Visa and Mastercard and, of course, insulating Russia from other sanction risks from the US and EU. Obviously, the course on the dedollarization was also reiterated. Now Biden, or rather those who control him, suddenly want "stable and predictable relations with Russia". Dudes, supporting a Nazi shithole like Ukraine and calling the President of a superpower "a killer" is a very wrong way of going about it. Again, Russia's departure from the West cannot be stopped any more and for that US "diplomacy" and "intelligence", or whatever passes in the US for these, otherwise respectable and real professionals'-oriented, occupations are responsible together with a cesspool of lowlifes known in the US as main stream media. You get what you paid for, folks.
Monday, April 12, 2021
For many people this looks like something really...out there. But it is not. I wrote many times, the creek will turn into the river, inevitably.
I wrote yesterday a piece exclusively for Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) where I address some issues re: the salvo of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in case NATO decides to "fight". I don't think that this scenario is likely but just in case, here are some conclusions by me:
...there is plenty of subsonic, supersonic and hypersonic goodness to spread around by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet alone and competent people in Pentagon know this. That is why the appearance of those two US destroyers in the Black Sea is, literally, for the appearance primarily and for trying to collect some intel for what seems today a diminishing probability of confrontation in Donbass. I often write that many people in the US, and I am talking about policy-makers, cannot grasp the scale of the America’s trailing Russia in fire power in all domains. It is not just quantitative; it is qualitative and the gap only continues to widen. But I warned about it for years, didn’t I?
Andrei Raevsky titled (correctly) my piece: Why It Is Not Advised. It is a symptomatic title since today, as if he read my books amd recent writings, Colonel Douglas Macgregor penned a piece for The American Conservative which has a title: Facing the Facts of War with Russia. The Biden administration appears willing to get us into a fight we’re not ready for. I was calling on the US political elites to face the facts for many years now. Now American senior officer, a real professional, with reputation for realistic view of the world outside writes today:
If Russian military power prevails, President Biden’s promise of support means U.S. or Allied NATO air or ground forces may intervene to rescue the Ukrainians from defeat. In Europe, U.S. Army and Marine ground forces are too weak to intervene 500 miles east of the Polish border, even if reinforced in a timely manner by armored brigades. None of NATO’s ground forces are ready to cope with Russia’s BM-30 SMERCH Rocket Artillery Formations. Rockets fired from just five of Russia’s BM-30 SMERCH rocket launchers can devastate an area the size of New York City’s Central Park (843 acres, or 3.2 square miles) in minutes. Thus, if U.S. and allied forces do intervene, they are likely to do so with air assets. How effective Russian integrated air defenses will be is unknown, but it would be ill-advised to underestimate the impact of Russian IADs with phased array radars. Some of the newest air defense systems—like the Russian S-500—are so capable that many U.S. Defense officials privately worry that even warplanes like the F-22, F-35, and the B-2 risk destruction if they attempt to penetrate them.
Macgregor makes one small mistake though. Russia does not need S-500 to close off the skies over Ukraine. The line of modern S-series AD complexes, ranging from S-400 of AD forces to S-300V series of army specific (troops) AD and down to Buk-M3 and Tor-M2--are all integrated into flexible and well-protected network which has NO problem detecting, tracking and shooting down any target, be that small UAV or the most stealthiest aircraft or missile. Plus, of course, if shit hits the fan, Russian Air Force has enough assets to challenge any US air assets, the ones which will survive strikes at air field and bases.
But this is not what really is important in Macgregor's piece, most important is his corroboration of what I am writing and warning non-stop: the US is nuclear-biased and will initiate nuclear exchange because what is expecting US troops in case of the United States directly intervening into a possible conflict in Ukraine, is the level of human and materiel losses US Armed Forces never experienced in their history. Macgregor, essentially, agrees:
Since prevailing winds in Eastern Europe would spread nuclear fallout across Russia and Central Asia all the way to Korea, the Russian use of nuclear weapons is very unlikely—unless of course, U.S. forces use so-called “tactical nuclear weapons,” which would trigger Russian escalation to the strategic nuclear level with ominous consequences for planet Earth. However, virtually all U.S. and allied military installations, from Estonia to Spain, will be within range of Russian Kalibr Cruise Missiles carrying 1,000 pound, high explosive, conventional warheads.
As I am on record constantly--the United States never fought a war with its Command and Control system under the relentless sustained fire impact and its rear attacked and disorganized. Conventionally, the United States cannot win against Russia in Europe, at least Eastern part of it and Biden Admin better wake up to the reality that it may, indeed, not survive any kind of escalation and, in fact, modern Kalibrs, 3M14Ms, as a matter of fact, have a range of a 4,500 kilometers, as well as 5,000+ kilometer range of X-101 cruise missiles, which will have no issues with penetrating North American airspace when launched by Russia's strategic bombers without even leaving the safety of Russia's airspace.
It is good that Douglas Macgregor goes on record in this case and underscores the fact that Russia can and will, God forbids it comes to this, win conventionally, while the United States loses even in a nuclear conflict. But then again, in this case we all lose. Conveying this reality that the US has no good options against Russia is very important, especially to those people in current admin who have no clue about modern war and how it is fought--and that is the overwhelming majority of the US elites. I don't want to end up being prophetic about the events which I am desperately trying to prevent. Having opinion of such a heavyweight as Douglas Macgregor being very similar to mine helps enormously.
In related news, Ukrainian clown worries:
Poor, poor baby. He ain't seen nothing yet. When Russia begins a real build-up of Russian troops, he better be sure he has his jet fueled and ready to go in Borispol airport in Kiev. But this is just in case if he obliges and carries out his orders from his handlers in Washington. He still thinks that the United States is this "the finest fighting force in history", well, he may learn soon enough the real situation if he is not cautious. As Peskov today responded to Blinken's threats about "consequences" (in Russian) almost in Fulbright's manner, that constant threatening with consequences and "paying a price" completely devalues those threats. Recall:
“It is simply not necessary for us to go around forever proclaiming: ‘I am the greatest!’ The more one does this sort of thing, in fact, the more people doubt it….”
The United States simply exceeded a bragging limit.
P.S. Today is 60th Anniversary since this guy and those backward Russian peasants launched first human in space.
I am sure in woke America this will be viewed as "white privilege" and as being very racist.
Friday, April 9, 2021
Canadian rock-scene was always...ahhh....mixed. But this one was good.
Here is the full one.
It is Friday........
OK, let's get it into a lighter territory;)))
No shit, pardon my French, and what did they expect?
КИЕВ, 9 апр — РИА Новости. "Освобождение" Донбасса силовым путем приведет к массовой гибели мирного населения и военнослужащих, а это неприемлемо для Киева, заявил главнокомандующий Вооруженными силами Украины Руслан Хомчак. "Будучи преданным общечеловеческим ценностям и нормам международного гуманитарного права, наше государство на первое место ставит жизнь своих граждан", — цитирует его пресс-центр Генштаба. По словам Хомчака, украинские власти считают политико-дипломатический путь урегулирования ситуации в Донбассе приоритетным.
The United States on Thursday said it was discussing Russia’s military build-up near the Ukrainian border with Nato allies as fresh reports showed Russia deploying ballistic missiles to the area. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said that Washington was “increasingly concerned” about what has been described as Russia’s largest military manoeuvres in the area since the break-out of hostilities in eastern Ukraine in 2014. “Five Ukrainian soldiers have been killed this week alone. These are all deeply concerning signs,” Ms Psaki told reporters on Thursday.
Oh no, Jen, you got it all wrong, if you want to see how real "largest manoeuvres" by Russia look like, take a look at Vostok-2018. If Ukraine wants to face this after its whole command, control and communications will be annihilated, sure:
US media may have an excellent expertise in creating a narrative (a euphemism for BS) but Russia has an excellent expertise in combined arms operations, and it is the latter, not the former, which in the end decides the issue, no matter how one tries to spin it. Good that they got the message. As I am on record for years--those people, be that Kiev or Washington, understand only one language or as Crocodile Dundee would say:
Now, jokes aside. A couple of the US Navy ships which should enter the Black Sea soon will be there primarily for recon mission and, possibly, in case the shit hits the fan, providing some data to Ukies. They will be big fat targets for the Russian Navy and attached forces, so I do not expect any serious conflagration, especially with Ukraine having shifted into a rear gear. And now that Ukraine' clown (aka President) is calling for a truce in Donbass (in Russian), one can clearly see that massive military power can decide a lot of issues and be a guarantor of a peace. This, however, doesn't resolve Ukraine's issue but this latest shitstorm gives Russia a good justification for an accelerated integration of LDNR with Russia, while keeping this whole clusterfuck of a situation frozen, which suites Russia just fine for now. As I said, Russia and Russians DON'T care about Ukraine and Ukrainians anymore and that is the only thing, in the end, which matters under these circumstances because, eventually, this Nazi shithole of a country Delenda Est.
Thursday, April 8, 2021
Ron Unz published my piece on the situation in the world at Unz Review and you can get acquainted with it there. Here is some taste:
So, to convince those 447 million EU’s residents that they need America’s protection and weapons, America needs Russia to get into the war in Ukraine and if it will end up with utter destruction, and it will if Russia really decides so, of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and, likely, Ukrainian statehood, so be it. Americans never really cared how many aborigines die, as long as it works for the US bottom line. Or, if one may, a condition of American condition, which is deteriorating steadily because not only the United States increasingly has very little of substance, that is of high value added, to sell to the world, but forming economic and military monster of Eurasia removes the United States from its, grossly exaggerated to start with, self-proclaimed status of global hegemon to the status of, at best, one of the few big shots on the planet. At worst, the United States is removed from Eurasia as a viable competitor and is relegated to a status of a regional power—still powerful relative to its continental neighbors but not having a shot at this second number of 4.67 billion.
As you may have guessed already--4.67 billion is a population of Asia. And if willing to confirm the posture of Russia which I am describing for the last week or so, Dmitri Kozak--a Deputy Head of President's Administration--nonchalantly stated to the major media that:
Translation: the initiation of hostilities in Donbass by Kiev will be the end of Ukraine.
Cannot get any clearer than that, can it? Russia is ready, as I already stated, if need be, to finish the job. And in related news. Amphibious and artillery ships of Caspian Flotilla (in all--10 ships) will start the transfer from Caspian to Black Sea in coming days (in Russian). Guess from three times why these ships (of course, combat training, wink, wink) are being transferred to the Black Sea THROUGH Azov Sea? Right! Azov Sea is very shallow and these guys are perfectly suited for operations in shallow waters.
These little guys pack a massive cannon and MLRS high precision firepower and will have no problems with both sinking whatever Ukraine may have on the surface and with assisting the landing of marines on the shore, just in case. As a result of all these moves by Russia suddenly we have this:
No, no, guys, this is not how it works. While there is very little doubt that the United States pushes Ukraine into suicide, let's not forget that many in Ukraine want to obliterate Russian Donbass and if it takes genocide--they are ready to commit it. Now, this clown Zelensky has to decide how he and his regime of fanatical Russophobes will proceed and he is in a Catch 22 situation--damned if you do (attack), damned if you don't. The festering abscess of Ukraine has to be dealt with, because Russia has all means and intentions to deal with it, if it comes to that, in a surgical manner. Without anesthesia. But then again, as I repeat ad nauseam, when one has such an escalation dominance as Russia has, it is not difficult to have many options of response. And yes, people from Kremlin do not speak their "personal opinions" for the press, as it is the case in the US, statements from people of such level as Kozak, who also happened to be Vladimir Putin's personal friend, indicate that the decision has been made and Russia is ready for any contingency.
Tuesday, April 6, 2021
In his latest, Dr. Roberts makes a valid point:
Martyanov believes that Washington’s guarantee to Ukraine is a temptest in a teacup as Washington will not really risk confronting Russia militarily. https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com I wonder if Martyanov is giving Washington too much credit for awareness. If Washington were reading the situation correctly, would the US Secretary of Defense have given Ukraine a guarantee against Russian intervention if Ukraine, now better armed by Washington, renews its assault on Donbass? Washington wants conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the purpose of giving the guarantee is to produce conflict. Martyanov might be correct that Ukraine is too wary to trust the guarantee, and that Washington would not stand behind it. But escalation can have momentum of its own. The publicized guarantee could result in extreme elements pushing the Ukrainian president into foolhardy action. Neocons and liberal interventionists could insist Washington’s word and reputation are at stake and demand that Biden go to Ukraine’s aid. I agree with Martyanov that it would be a war based on stupid nonsense, but these things do happen. I only raise questions. Saker and Martyanov are better informed on these matters than I. Nevertheless, I think the risk is high that the American people are going to be very regretful that they permitted the military/security complex to use the dumbshit Democrats to prevent President Trump from normalizing relations with Russia.
I totally agree that confrontation can turn into the full out war very quickly, especially considering an appalling lack of competence and excessive supply of arrogance and stupidity of current administration. But Washington was misreading and misjudging Russia for the last 20+ years at least, in reality--much longer. But that is the whole point, both Lavrov and Putin are on record when warning about "Ukrainian statehood" in case Ukraine decides to go all the way, especially under the pressure from Washington which needs war in which Russia will be involved. Washington DOES NOT have military resources to do anything with Russia in Ukraine. In general US troops in Europe, in whatever configuration, are merely targets for Russia, let alone if Washington does commit its feeble military resources "in support" of Ukraine. Yes, this could turn ugly very fast and this will create a danger of of an escalation towards nuclear threshold because the United States cannot win conventionally.
But then again, I am on record for years that the US is increasingly desperate and feels its marginalization, both economically and militarily, in Eurasia. It is ready to do even unthinkable, once one considers the mental state of the US "elites", to hold on to whatever is left of the American Empire. In this case, what is left to mitigate this insanity is Russia's calm but firm posture and I can guarantee that Russians conveyed to the American side what it may expect if it continues on this path. Russia DOES posses escalation dominance and people in Washington know that Ukraine armed forces will be obliterated but think that it gives Washington a pretext to isolating Russia from Europe. What can I say, Russia completed her reorientation towards Asia, so, it is up to Europe to decide what it wants to do. But Russia WILL resolve the issue of Ukraine now and if the United States will stand in the way, well, God help us all. In conclusion: I disagree that Trump really wanted to improve relations with Russia. In his view, it was merely a tactical maneuver, an obverse Nixon's China policy of sorts. Russians didn't buy it. Russia and the United States today are in irreconcilable positions and no dialogue is possible with current US "elites" for a variety of geopolitical, economic, historic and, importantly, moral-ethical reasons.
Monday, April 5, 2021
"Escalation" around Donbass, Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) already has four open threads on this issue, he provided a good summary of this whole, frankly rather predictable, tempest in a teacup. Here is Andrei's elaboration (part of it).
- The West has already decided that Russia is the aggressor and Banderastan the victim of the Russian aggression. Even if the Ukies launch a massive artillery and armor attack on the LDNR (or even Crimea), the West will claim with a straight face that the evil Russkies attacked the innocent Ukrainians.
- I do not expect any NATO country to actually commit forces to to attack the Russian forces. At most, the Poles (who else?!) to move a mostly symbolic force into the western Ukraine (Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk).
- However, the USA is not only weak, it is fantastically incompetent, ignorant and arrogant: a lot of high level western officials have declared that the USA/NATO will not “allow” Russia to threaten or attack the Ukraine. To me, this tells me that there are those who believe that if the US/NATO actually do engage Russian forces Russia will “blink”, and cower down in fear. Clearly, these people have never read a history book.
- I am convinced that if the US/NATO attack Russian forces, the Russians will counter-attack not only the actual forces which attacked Russia, but also the command centers which gave this US/NATO command centers which gave the order to attack and coordinated it.
- The biggest danger right now is that western politicians are completely misreading not only Putin, but all of Russia. They are missing the key point: Russia cannot and will not retreat further, she won’t meekly declare that the Donbass or Crimea belong to the Nazi regime in Kiev. Russia is ready, capable and willing to fight US/NATO forces if needed, including by using tactical and even strategic nukes.
It is a good itemization, especially pp.4-5. It is finally becoming a somewhat popular--which is a good sign--tune around at least some media quarters in the US that, as Matt Purple posits: Our Elites Couldn’t ‘Reset’ a Wall Outlet, Let Alone the Global Economy. Yes, not only that--Western elites have no clue on warfare. They really never had one in modern times and that is why they are dangerous. Can you imagine giving monkey a grenade? I doubt Ukies will launch much of anything but, honestly, if they did, especially against Crimea, it would be a fascinating bloodletting with the US leading Ukies to a slaughterhouse. But then again, for people in D.C. one hundred thousand more--one hundred thousand less killed means absolutely nothing because they lost distinction between good and bad long time ago, which is also, as stated above, amplified by a complete lack of the touch with reality especially in military aspect when related to Russia.
Russia confirmed today that:
...it was in high-level contact with the United States about tensions over Ukraine and dismissed fears of a Russian military buildup even as it vowed to respond to new Ukrainian sanctions. U.S. President Joe Biden used a first phone call with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday to offer "unwavering" support after Western nations and NATO voiced concern over Russian troop movements near Ukraine. There has been a recent spike in violence in Ukraine's eastern Donbass region where Kyiv's troops have battled Russian-backed separatist forces in a conflict it estimates has killed 14,000 people since 2014. "We are in contact with the Americans, this is happening at a high level," Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency. He said Moscow had rejected as "unfounded" concerns raised by Washington over the situation. He accused Ukraine of failing to implement agreements over the region. "If our American colleagues were concerned about this, it would really help stabilise the situation," he was quoted as saying.
Generally speaking, the job of Russian diplomats at this stage is both simple and near impossible to complete--they need to convince a bunch of ignoramuses from the top of Biden Admin that they better defer to US military, which is better informed and much more aware of Russia's military capability, that in case bunch of neocons and liberal interventionists think that they can unleash war in Europe only--they better think twice, because not only very many US troops in Europe will die, but the war will come to the US proper.
In related news, Marshal Shaposhnikov today completed a launch of 3M14, which, after flying more than 1000 kilometers, hit the target in Khabarovsk Region (in Russian). The frigate should join Russia's Pacific Fleet by the start of this Summer. Meanwhile Russian Baltic Fleet conducts drills of a surface group.
Sunday, April 4, 2021
Bernhard's meticulous and steady digging through the pile of media sources provides for a truly great news aggregator, and I may feel today somewhat vindicated and have my rah-rah and ego, which is larger than cathedral, pleasantly tickled. MoA provides a weekly review of notable sources and in one of them I ran into this conclusions by Esteemed Ambassador Chas Freeman--a former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and deputy assistant Secretary of the State for African affairs, among many other important diplomatic posts he held in the times when the United States actually did have a competent diplomacy. Just take a look at his skills: he speaks Chinese fluently, Spanish and French at the professional
level, and Arabic conversationally, in addition to several other
languages. Ambassador Freeman studied at the Universidad Nacional
Autónoma de México, and he earned a JD from the Harvard Law School and
an AB magna cum laude from Yale University.
Here is what attracted me in Freeman's excellent interview:
But there’s not much evidence of China wanting to replace us. They are displacing us in some spheres because they’re big and growing and successful. Do they want to take on our global dominion and hegemony role? No, but we assert that they do. We posit that China thinks and behaves like us: “We had Manifest Destiny and it took us across the Pacific to the Philippines. Therefore, China must have a Monroe Doctrine and Manifest Destiny in mind.” This is wrong. Things don’t work like that. So I would argue that we have inhaled our own propaganda, and we are living in the appropriately stoned state that that produces. If we have sound policies, we can out-compete anyone. But we’re not looking at sound policies; we’re looking at pulling down our competitor.
Boom! I, of course, would argue that at this time the United States lost its competitive edge in a number of crucial fields in which it can not "out-compete" China or Russia, but the message about propaganda is ultimately correct and this "inhaling" is precisely what I warn about non-stop for the last 7-8 years. Just read my Sand Castle Geopolitics series of posts from 2014 in this blog. Recall introduction to my first book:
It is doubtful that such a miscarriage of a historical justice will be challenged successfully in the combined West, let alone in the US itself, where many media figures, politicians and “scholars” are in overdrive, doing their utmost to falsify the actual truth about the birthplace of American, real and perceived, superpowerdom—World War II. The real danger from such manipulations arises not when those manipulations are done out of knowledge of reality which is distorted accordingly for propaganda purposes, but when those who manipulate information begin to sincerely believe in their own falsifications, when they buy into their own narrative. They stop being manipulators, and they become believers in a narrative. They become manipulated themselves.
In other words, US "elites'" "inhaling" own propaganda is a clear and present danger to the world because acting upon what in proper societies is called a historical and geopolitical bullshit is not the way to conduct oneself in the world where we all are merely 30 minutes away from a complete mutual annihilation--an idea many in D.C. simply cannot grasp. In general, Freeman's interview is excellent, including his superb definition of good diplomacy. Freeman's justification of his dropping out of law school is also instructive and explains my concern about huge swaths of America's foreign policy (or lack thereof) big honchos being lawyers primarily.
Law school is not irrelevant, but it isn’t as interesting as dealing on behalf of the United States with foreign governments and cultures. The French have a phrase, “déformation professionnelle,” which means that you take on the mindset and reasoning skills of a particular profession and you become narrow-minded because you don’t see the whole picture. The first year of law school is a sort of ideological bootcamp in which you are taught to reason in terms of rights, duties, privileges, and immunities, and various other categories relevant to legal reasoning. That training is all very injurious to diplomacy because if you approach an international relationship in terms of who’s right and who’s wrong, you’re wasting your time. There is no superior authority, no court system, and no legal system to sort out many diplomatic questions. If you insist that the other party’s wrong, the other party may decide to go to war with you.
So, enjoy Freeman's interview, while I express my appreciation to Bernhard for pointing out a very important view by a real professional American diplomat of what today could be termed as an "old school" of American diplomacy, because a new one, frankly, is a bunch of ignorant ideologues pretending to be diplomats. I am very happy to have correctness of very many of the key points of my writing being corroborated by an important figure in the ever-shrinking field of the American genuine international relations professionals.
In related news: my sincere congratulations for Westerners celebrating Easter today. Christ is risen and all the best to all of us. Most importantly--peace on Earth.
Thursday, April 1, 2021
UNZ published a transcript of an excellent conversation between Pepe Escobar and Michael Hudson, which you can watch here:
The Americans want war. The people that Biden has appointed have an emotional hatred of Russia. I’ve spoken to government people who are close to the Democratic Party, and they’ve told me that there’s a pathological emotional desire for war with Russia, largely stemming from the fact that the Tzars were anti-Semitic and there’s still the hatred about their ancestors: “Look what they did to my great-grandfather.” And so they’re willing to back the Nazis, back the anti-Semites in Ukraine. They’re willing to back today’s anti-Semites all over the world as long as they’re getting back at this emotional focus on a kind of post 19th-century economy. I’ve met these people. Their emotion is one of hatred and anger. You can look at their face and see what they’ve become. This is really dangerous. They are crazy. And Putin is quite right. America has got its power by breaking contracts. It broke all of the contracts with the native Americans to take their land. It’s broken the Iranian contract. It broke most recently the Ukrainian Minsk agreement, and the JCP before. So what’s the point of making an agreement with any Americans
Here is what I am constantly trying to stress--you do not negotiate with a mad bunch, especially afflicted with a narrow ethno-religious trauma, which over the years is being re-amplified in an echo-chamber of the American Jewish immigration, whose ascendance to the very top of the American political power and influence in the post-WW II period came through what some, wrongly, continue to view as intellectual neoconservative (Trotskyist) movement, which was neither "conservative", in any applicable sense nor, most importantly, intellectual. American neoconservative movement is a combination of a shoddy scholarship, if not altogether outright pseudo-religious demagoguery and falsification, and of a masterful, needs to be admitted, manipulation with the American propensity for self-aggrandizing for the reasons which, in reality, go completely counter to the interests of the majority of American population.
That is why Lavrov today was explicit when stated that "confrontation in bi-lateral relations reached bottom" (in Russian). I may only add that down the road expect the knock from below. And here is the point--American neoconservatism is extremely illiterate in some of the most crucial aspects of the national security and that is warfare and competent diplomacy. Even a brief review of "intellectual" concoctions by the America's neocons, be that risible Fukuyama's psychobabble, which is neocon in its essence, or any type of Kagan family cabal's bloviation on matters of history and war--American neoconservatism was never competent. It is sure as hell marked by the crusading spirit against human nature and history but that is as far as it goes. So, you cannot explain to a bunch of American Jewish or WASP neocon "scholars" and "influencers" sucking on the teat of America's real and perceived power that before they undertake any practical action based on their loony theories, they better do basic cost-benefit analysis and this one is precisely about them willing to continue to hate Russia at the cost of being turned into radioactive, or just simple, inert, ash or they would want a benefit of staying alive, which comes with resorting to a more peaceful posture.
This is precisely the occasion on which one makes the case not in terms of "policy", "agreements" or "balance", but in terms of how and where people who push for war, and that is about 99.99% of America's neocon cabal, will get it and how it will look like. In other words, one shows them the weapon by which they will be killed in case they want to unleash a war. Considering the fact that American neocons are not good militarily, in fact many of them are the ones who drive incompetent American militarist propaganda, one is forced to put it in terms those people, who never experienced anything beyond the danger, as Phil Giraldi put it "of chocking on foie gras" or Power Point applications getting frozen during the presentation or yet another pseudo-academic BS in neocon think-tanks, in terms those people can understand. Neocons, while loving to play with the lives of others, are extremely sensitive to a death coming their way. It is one of the reasons why we still all live in a relatively peaceful environment.
They do understand and are scared of death. Even when they are convinced, due to their technological, operational and tactical illiteracy, that when Putin stated in February 2019 this:
Feb. 20 (UPI) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a national address Wednesday Moscow could target the United States if it moves new missiles into eastern Europe, after the scrapping of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty. In his State of the Nation address, Putin threatened to target countries in Europe and the United States with new intermediate-range missiles if similar missiles are stationed against Russia in neighboring European nations. He said such a scenario would target U.S. decision-making centers.
He didn't mean the White House, Pentagon or, say, Capitol--no, coordinates of those are contained in the guidance computers of Russia's weapon systems since my tender childhood. Same as Kremlin or Russia's government House are in the American ones. Nothing new here. This is not news and this is not what Putin was talking about. As I state constantly, modern weapon systems have a an unprecedented precision and accuracy. You can today, literally, fly a cruise missile into the window of a house if you have to. Russia's stand-off systems, moreover, have unprecedented ranges. So, if any of the warmongers thinks that they maybe safe in New Zealand or Patagonia--they are really wrong. Nuclear weapons are easy, but those are non-nuclear ones which allow to receive targeting and deliver a salvo of cruise missiles anywhere in the world by means of moving a submarine into firing position anywhere around the globe, including but not limited to Patagonia, New Zealand, Australia or Antarctica, for a good measure. Modern targeting systems of Russia, such as Liana, which is already operational, are high orbit satellite constellations (1,000 + km) which are safe from modern Western anti-satellite missiles, not to mention other means of reconnaissance and targeting which are networked and well protected.
In the end, Russian special ops, which also have a very good record of clandestine deployments around the world, do not care where modern SSN or SSGN will deploy them--in South America or Asia. And that is what Putin meant by "decision-making centers". Anyone responsible for unleashing hell on Earth will be found and annihilated either in some specific building in Europe or the US, or will be annihilated or captured personally anywhere in the world. Many forget, that in 1996, the leader of Chechen separatists Dzhohar Dudaev was killed by laser guided bombs with targeting provided based on his use of satellite telephone. That was 25 years ago. Since then Russia moved into the revolutionary warfare territory both in terms of C4ISR and in terms of weapons and that is why if any plans of "sitting out" a war between Russia and NATO exist in the midst of US warmongers, most of them from neocon zoo, the explanation of impossibility of such a plan is a matter of presentation and demonstration of what modern Russian weapon systems can do, and the names of those in US and Europe who push for war are well-known to Russians. This is precisely what Russia was doing for the last 7 years and this is the reason for increasing pitch of anti-Russian hysteria--I know, it is frustrating when one hates Russia more than anything but knows that one can only scream at her and not much more without the danger of being annihilated oneself.
So, they get this crucial difference between being dead and alive and this is good. So, they want war but they will not get it on their terms--this is called an escalation dominance which comes in the way of real revolution in military affairs. While neocons studied political pseudo-science and ersatz history in US Ivy League universities, Russians were studying physics of flight and of signal processing, among many other things and that is why Russian don't have many doctrines--they have one, but this one works. The United States produces very many of them but as the chief editor of Russia’s popular military-analytical bi-monthly, Arsenal of Fatherland (Arsenal Otechestva), former cadre Russian Air Force officer Alexey Leonkov, states explicitly when commenting of the fact that Americans are global leaders in a number of developed strategies, that there is only one problem with all of them—they are not survivable when faced with reality. Neither are globalist plans on "Reset" which are now merely limited to US, which outlived its use for globalists, whose integral part American neocons are, and Europe which will be subdued and turned into the reservation for economic "units" without culture, nationality and humanity.
This also explains a desperate desire of the United States to unleash a war, any kind of war in Ukraine and to get Russia into any kind of calamity there and make her spend her resources on this shithole of a country. But here too, as it is a tradition, a huge miscalculation was made in 2014 and ever since because neocons who pushed this agenda listened to non-neocon but a typical bloviating Russophobe Zbigniew Brzezinski who preached his gospel of Russia's revival being utterly tied to Ukraine reintegrating into Russia. As always, the real situation was exactly the opposite. But they don't learn in D.C. because they cannot--they are ignorant to start with, plus hatred denies them access to the last remaining iota of common sense and knowledge and we have what we have today. But behind all of that is a systemic and irresolvable crisis of financial predatory capitalism, which goes under different monikers, but remains the same, as Michael Hudson astutely put it--the parasite finally ate the host. In this case, the neocon insanity in the US is merely a private symptom of a larger ailment.
In related news. This is Russia moving her troops (some of it--yes, this is this proverbial netcentricity and C4ISR on the move) into Crimea a week ago.
Wednesday, March 31, 2021
Russian fairy tales contain such personage as Koschei Bessmertnyi (Koschei the Immortal). He hides his soul inside nested objects to protect it. For example, the
soul may be hidden in the needle that is hidden inside the egg which is
carried by the duck that flies away whenever anyone tries to catch it. Why nested objects? Because once the needle is broken Koschei dies. But the metaphor here is even deeper--this nesting "of the soul" is akin to deeply hidden and suppressed psychological complexes, which is a part of the soul, apart from the obvious security measures (nesting) to guard one's life which is in the needle. The needle is a representation of something we all guard as the utmost personal secret we take to the gave with us. We all have our needles, which are hidden in some eggs, inside the duck. Ben Hodges' needle, however, is not in the egg--it is deep in his ass and there is nothing secret about it, since it reveals Ben Hodges' most important and domineering complex--complex of inferiority. It is also a very relatable issue for the modern United States whose ascendance to superpowerdom happened because of the incredible combination of geopolitical factors which preserved the US from a devastation of Europe and Asia in WW II.
Retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges has been accused of an “outright and primitive lie,” after casting doubt on the consensus that Russia lost millions of lives during World War II, claiming they were all Ukrainians. Hodges is the former Commanding General of the United States Army Europe and now serves as a lobbyist at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), a Washington and Warsaw-based pressure group that promotes the agenda of US military contractors in Eastern Europe. In addition to arms industry interests, it is also funded by the US State Department and NATO.In recent years, the Second World War has been a target for historical revisionism, with figures on both sides of the Atlantic being attacked for supposedly rewriting established truths for modern-day political gain. While most of the rhetoric has centered around claiming responsibility for the defeat of the Nazis, Hodges has shocked many commentators by suggesting that widely agreed figures surrounding the war’s casualties are actually false.
There are no respected academics that support Hodges’ assertion that millions of Russians did not die, but he received no pushback from the other speakers taking part in the talk. The Zoom call was part of the 12th annual US-Ukraine Security Dialogue, a conference organized by the Center for US-Ukrainian Relations, a lobby group accused by some of having ties to OUN-B, an offshoot of the far-right Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists.
Tuesday, March 30, 2021
Alarm, alarm! Call on CIA, Hollywood, New York Times, Oprah and Department of State immediately. You may also call on the US Bureau of Reclamation, just in case, plus states' Lottery Commissions for a good measure. Putin and Russia are completely off the rails and threaten the whole thing...you know...what's the name of it. Ah, yes "diversity", which, of course, is "strength" and the future. Will omit for now the description of this future, but future nonetheless. That's what they say. Putin, in an act of unparalleled Nazi nationalist fascism and turbo-Holocaust racism and super white privilege, just stated that:
Доля детей мигрантов в российских школах должна быть такова, чтобы можно было адаптировать их к языковой и культурной среде, а также не допустить ситуации, как в Европе и США, где формируются целые школы, укомплектованные только такими детьми, заявил президент России Владимир Путин. "В некоторых европейских странах, да и в Штатах, когда уровень детей мигрантов в школе достигает определенного процента, местные жители своих детей из этих школ забирают <...>. Там образуются школы, которые фактически на сто процентов укомплектованы детьми мигрантов", — сказал Путин во вторник на заседании совета по межнациональным отношениям. Глава государства подчеркнул, что в России "ни в коем случае нельзя допустить развития событий подобного рода".
Translation: the share of migrants' children in Russian schools should be such that it will allow to adapt them to language and cultural environment and not to allow the situation, such as in Europe and the United States, where schools consisting entirely of immigrant children exist, state Russia's President Vladimir Putin. "In some European and American schools, when the number of such children reaches certain percentage, native people begin to withdraw their children from such schools <...> this is how schools with 100 percent immigrant children appear", said Putin Tuesday at the meeting of the Council on National Relations. The head of state underscored that in Russia "such development must not be allowed".
He went to underscore that such problem does not exist in Russia but it should be forestalled. But then again, as you may know, Russian Constitution is explicit in terms of the role of Russian (Russkie) people for the Russian State, so, for Russian it is only natural to view the whole thing under such angle as Putin does. In fact, Putin, actually follows the lead of the overwhelming majority of Russian and not only Russian, many other native ethnicities, people who really do not want to see their beloved country turn into...well, fill in the blanks on your own. As you might expect, Russians, being backward, primitive people with no culture and lacking cultural enrichment of, say, UK or France, do not understand all the beauty of diversity and of 100% immigrant schools. Come on, look at some of the benefits of immigration.
In related Russian news, Russia resumed testing of the new light transport IL-112 for Russian MoD and the bird is really plump and looks, actually, very modern. This plane is going to replace venerable AN-26s both for the design and political reasons, Antonov being formally a Ukrainian firm, which for all intents and purposes doesn't exist as a viable enterprise anymore.