For People Who Still ...

 ... learned very little. Latest data: 200 drones launched at Moscow, 194 shot down by Moscow's AD defense (per Mayor Sobyanin). That means 6 got through, or 6/200 = 3% of drones launched. That means 97% combat efficiency of Air Defense. Now ...

... also for impressionable minds--that's not just interception of a drone by air defense. Nope, this is shooting down of drone filled with fuel oil for a dramatic effect because it takes time for it to burn off while creating a lot of smoke--this is what average person with no military background craves. Dramatism. Real damage is negligible, but for euro-morons will suffice as long as they do not pay attention for such things as Pakistani gangs raping English school girls and doing this for years while UK government not only was covering it up but, it seems, was involved. But yes, "Moscow is burning". 

Meanwhile, Poles carried the cross to the cemetery of victims of WW II in Germany. 

Nope, verboten. Our local Poles will correct me if that's not what is happening here. German Polizei ... 

Again, I Do Not Exaggerate ...

... when I speak about the US (NATO) de facto not having real air defense. Random AD complexes such as Patriot PAC3 here and there the real air defense is not. So, Ben Hodges suddenly arrives (on his hilarious YT channel) to the conclusion of which I write for decades really: 

American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems were unable to resist Russian missiles, said the former commander of US forces in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. "Nine missiles were fired at Kyiv. Nine missiles reached their targets. None were intercepted. None were hit by Patriot batteries, which the United States provided specifically to protect Kyiv from strikes of this kind," Hodges said in a video for his blog. According to him, other Western systems that have become part of the Ukrainian multi-level air defense system did not work either. "It failed because Russia has created a missile capability that the current generation of air defense systems provided by NATO cannot handle. It is unpleasant to admit, but it is so," the general said.

As I repeat ad nauseam, US Armed Forces TOE is that of the force from 1990s designed to fight "fairy tales" wars against supremely backward, corrupt and incompetent opponent. This IS NOT just technological problem, it is a cultural one and because of that it cannot be fixed by applying band aid here and there. Doctrine is a system of the views, the US has views but not the system. 

Per NATO (inspired by British) on Sevastopol's Panorama, as it turned out the magnificent Roubaud's painting of 30 000 square meters is generally safe.  The building will be restored. Not the first time, Nazis destroyed it before. 

NATO, being impotent and seeing its own demise lashes out at kindergartens, schools, hospitals and museums. British cannot rest while this magnificent historic art piece, depicting 349 day defense of Sevastopol during Crimean War where British-French-Turkish forces have been bled white, stands. 

Meanwhile Russia Continues To Build ...

 ... nuclear ice-breakers. 

While much is being said about Arctic Sea Route and its economic viability, what many bean counters (totally expected from people with MBA) from all kinds of "economic think-tanks" forget is that Arctic Sea Route is critical for Russia herself, international economic significance of this route notwithstanding. But same as with warfare, it is difficult to explain to average "economist" who grew up and was indoctrinated with all kinds of pseudo-economic BS such as "capitalization", stock market and futures, what national security is for such a nation as Russia, which cannot be measured in Rubles only. Mind you, Russians seldom mention costs of anything. In the West--the ONLY thing they emphasize is price. E.g. $13.5 billion aircraft carrier, $2.1 billion bomber etc. as if costs and price make it anymore combat capable. 

Well, those $1 billion Patriots discredited themselves so much, that Switzerland now considers alternative systems. 

PARIS — Switzerland will consider acquiring a second long-range air-defense system, preferably produced in Europe, as delivery of previously ordered Patriot systems by the United States will be delayed by four to five years, the government said on Friday. The country will also buy fewer Lockheed Martin F-35 jets than initially planned after unit costs of the fighter increased, with the government unwilling to provide the additional budget to maintain to the original number of 36 ordered aircraft, Martin Pfister, the federal councillor for defense, said in a press conference. 

Well, it is not only about delays, it is because of a humiliating "performance" by the US-made AD (and other hardware). Not that European-made Aster-family missiles and their platforms, such as SAMP-T are any better, both are failures in real war--they are the same dung as American systems, but Swiss do not have options. There is a lot to unpack in terms of military production in the West, but as we all know--most of it is about PR. But that are Swiss' problems, aren't they? 

Actually, NBC Must Be Commended ...

... for giving the tribune to Abbas Araghchi, albeit we know it has been done not out of journalist "integrity", but to provide additional insight into Tramp's madness against the background of upcoming midterms and sink even more GOP's prospects. 

Having said that, the expression on the face of the NBC host told a lot of things when Araghchi told him that Iran is "waiting for" US ground troops. He is not bluffing. And the main pillar of the US military mythology was always air power, but in pursuit of these WWII doctrinal ideas, everybody forgets what the use of ground forces entails--yes, assembly areas. Remember, I even made a whole video on that? 

This is a rough scheme of what assembly area of a battalion looks like. But that's Russian battalion which has Troops' Air Defense (Войсковая ПВО) component fully employed for protection of this assembly area, if Russians have to assemble forces. Here is what it looks like:

And this:

And this:

And this: 

And, of course, MOGs--Mobile Fire Groups equipped with everything one needs to repel UAVs attacks, plus Russian Armed Forces have a whole new service--Troops of Unmanned Aerial Systems. Needless to say, US Armed Forces has nothing which is even in the vicinity of such capabilities and Iran proved it again beyond any doubt--the US Army cannot fight with any enemy (forget about fighting Russia) which has UAV and missile forces which will attack assembly areas, and considering the "effectiveness" of the US air defense, they will wreck havoc in assembly areas and will inflict enormous casualties. 

That is why I repeat ad nauseam that FM 3-0 DOES NOT reflect any reality of operation for the force which cannot defend itself from the air. They learned nothing from SMO, because, of course, they have been high on own supply and drank 404 Kool Aid, until they started to suspect that something is fishy when Wiesbaden "Group" killed more than 200,000 personnel of VSU and failed to even reach the first line of defense of Russian Army in now famous 2023 "counter-offensive" clusterfuck on part of Pentagon, which not unlike Al Bundy from Married With Children whose main life's accomplishment were four touchdowns in Polk's High School football game, continues to hang on to the memories of defeating a semiliterate and backward Saddam's Army. And this is even before we begin to talk about resources. 

Here is visual representation from yesterday's employment by Russian Army of RUK (Recon Strike Complex) with Mr. Iskander with cluster munitions paying a visit to one of the camps (parts of assembly area) of VSU.  

Rough estimate--200+ KIAs and WIAs, two companies are gone in a blink of an eye. Remarkably, these losses WILL NOT BE counted in Russian Defense Ministry's daily updates. To remind you--so far, the tally of AD complexes, Russian forces destroyed 651 of them, including the best NATO could provide. What are "the other ways" in which Russia and China help Iran, I leave it to your imagination. Per "AI operational planning" by Pentagon, not only it is a laughing stock among serious military, but AI has now a new meaning--Artificial Imbecile, operated by very natural ones. 

With AD Like That ...

 ... CENTCOM issued official statement but, but ... 

Kuwaiti air defenses shot down three American F-15E fighter jets in “an apparent friendly fire incident” early on Monday, US Central Command has stated. The Gulf country hosts a major US airbase from which Washington has been launching warplanes since the beginning of its massive unprovoked joint attack on Iran, together with Israeli forces. The attacks, which have killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as over a hundred schoolgirls in a strike on a single building in the south of the country, have provoked a massive response across the Gulf region. “During active combat – that included attacks from Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles, and drones – the US Air Force fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses,” CENTCOM wrote in a press release on Monday. “All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident.”

The question is--Kuwait's AD operates 15 MIM-104 Patriots (8 of PAC3 variety)--where was IFF (Interrogation Friend Foe) and what is the REAL target selectivity in these Patriots. Three combat aircraft by "friendly fire" in less than 12 hours? Seriously? Something doesn't add up--I may allow for 1-2, but 3. The new MIM (wink, wink), I mean mem, is born, no--not Patriot PAC3, this one is now long a laughing stock--but Kuwait's Air Defense. 

Now, for the "military planners" like BiBi and Trump--here is what you achieved:

Nobody in Iran has any illusions about US, let alone Israel anymore. Donnie already stated that he may consider ground operations? Good luck with that, Vietnam will look like a stroll in the park, not to mention the fact that the US military cannot sustain operations. As Larry correctly noted:

If you listen to Donald Trump’s public words, he is making wild claims about US military successes in killing Iranians. However, there are new reports that suggest Trump is panicked and searching for a way to declare victory and exit the war. Donald Trump asked Italy to mediate or serve as a conduit for proposing an immediate ceasefire with Iran, following the recent US-Israeli military strikes on Iranian targets

So, as Russian genius has written (granted, Donnie doesn't read books), but then again, Tolstoy wrote about Napoleon, Donnie is a showman and NYC real estate shyster:

In former battles he had only considered the possibilities of success, but now innumerable unlucky chances presented themselves, and he expected them all. Yes, it was like a dream in which a man fancies that a ruffian is coming to attack him, and raises his arm to strike that ruffian a terrible blow which he knows should annihilate him, but then feels that his arm drops powerless and limp like a rag, and the horror of unavoidable destruction seizes him in his helplessness"

Leo Tolstoy, War And Peace, Book 10, Chapter XXXIV. 

Larry Makes Good Points.

In his latest post titled: Understanding Why General Caine Cannot Guarantee a Slam-Dunk Success if the US Attacks Iran.  The issue here is not just geography, however important, but also the idea of Pentagon on how to conduct SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense). Even before China delivering her radar to Iran, during the 12-day exchange between Iran and Israel, IAF was rather "surprised" when one of Iran's radar "locked on" Israeli F-35. And here is the issue which many MUST understand--"stealth" myth is just that. In normal human parlance it is called "reduction of physical fields" of the platform or weapon and professionally is known as LO--low observability and even at that it totally depends on the rakurs (in Russian) which is essentially an angle to target where its LO diminishes radically once the frontal semisphere angles itself away from the source of radiation (radar). Add here modern advanced signal processing and voila'. In other words, your "stealth" counts for very little against serious modern and well-trained air defense. As USAF F-117 "stealth" bombers learned the hard-way during the aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999. 27 years passed since then.

I remind you that Iran has this:

This is Russian Over-The-Horizon (OTH) radar Resonanse (the range of 1,000 km), which Iran operates. This thing doesn't care if you have stealth, double or quadruple stealth. You will be seen and targeting data will be distributed to tactical AD units. Then, Iran has its own OTH. Here is the approximate coverage of Iran's OTH. 

And then there is Russian ISR which combined with China's Early Warning gives Iran a good time to prepare in case of a traditional first strike, primarily by stand-off weapons--yes, TLAMs and JASSMs. And here comes this critical issue--how deep are US stores and what are the chances that the US may lose a very expensive and reputation-heavy asset? The answer is known--those chances are very high while US stores for sustaining SEAD are not deep enough. Recall 1999 again, by the 50th-60th day of bombing the US started to run out of stand-off weapons. Comparison is not only inevitable but warranted. 

Serbia: area-88,000 sq.km. Population around 6.5 million. Older AD.

Iran: area 1,650,000 sq. km. Population 92.5 million. Modern air defense with combat experience. Support of allies. Critical strategic geographic location. A variety of strike means ranging from the ballistic to cruise missiles. Modern Electronic Warfare means.

Feel the difference? Yep, that's the difference. So, what's the plan? As always it is the same, as I repeat ad nauseam, hurl everything US got at Iran and then try to destabilize her from within. Regime Change trick. Always the same. Recall 2023 "counter-offensive" and instigation of Wagner mutiny. So, very few options for the US other than try to "shock and awe" the country which is in no mood to compromise and has wherewithal to stand her ground and shoot back. Iranians know what Patriots and THAAD's "capabilities" are--they are not impressed. Iranians are good engineers and better mathematicians, they know Operational Planning. So, here we are.

That Is What Happens ...

 ... when your officer corps looks like this)) 

And most of it have been taught fairy tales in "academies" and war colleges. 

About 1,500 targets in a single day: that is the scale U.S. Army leaders say they are preparing for in a large-scale war in Europe. The projection, informed by the Russia-Ukraine war, is shaping how the service thinks about automation and speed, officials told reporters Thursday. Army commanders issued the warning as they shared reflections on Dynamic Front 26, a multinational exercise in Europe that brings together U.S. and NATO forces to rehearse the coordination of long-range fires in a high-intensity conflict. Drawing on lessons from Ukraine, the leaders described a battlefield where waves of drones, missiles and artillery could generate targets faster than a traditional headquarters can process them. The exercise focused on moving targeting data across national boundaries and between different systems. “We need to be able to intercept, defeat 600 to 1,200 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range one-way attack drones every 24-hour period,” said Brig. Gen. Steven Carpenter, the commanding general of Multidomain Command Europe. Those numbers, he said, reflect the scale of attacks seen in Ukraine.

I have news for Gen. Steven Carpenter (if anyone wonders who this general is and his official bio from Pentagon):

1. For any associated with Wisbaden NATO officer is like being branded a loser, because Wisbaden group "planning" killed many hundreds of thousands of khohol and gave us all a "masterpiece" of military incompetence in 2023 "counter-offensive". He should ask his boss--General Donahue;

2. Any references to the "experience" of "Russian-Ukrainian War" by the US Army is a joke--counting beans of missiles and loitering munitions, accompanied, of course, with comments from VSU, is wrong for starters, because MRAU (Массированный Ракетно-Авиационный Удар--Massed Missile-Aviation Strike) in case NATO decides to "fight" Russia will not be "600 to 1,200 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range one-way attack drones every 24-hour period"--it will be at least twice larger and it could be sustained for months;

3. Here comes the most important part: US Army has NO kinetic means of intercepting any salvo composed of three to four different types of stand off weapons, not to mention the fact that US so called Air Defense is incapable of intercepting super-sonic, let alone hyper-sonic weapons. Considering the state of the Raytheon and what it sells, the US will run out of any "defensive missiles" within first two-three weeks and will sustain at least 3,600 casualties a day ...

Reality, of course, will be even grimmer, especially if General Carpenter heard about assembly areas for division and Brigade Combat Teams formations. If he thinks that US Army formations communicate through holy spirit and ESP (you know, Shining) I have news for him--no matter EMCON, they will be detected, identified and targeting provided. Single Oreshnik, or three-four of Kinzhals, or salvo of 5-6 Iskanders ... so, make your own conclusions.  

The "transformation of the US Army" is impossible, because you cannot change cultural and military genetics--it will remain what it always was--an expeditionary force with obsolete TOE and with largely confabulated military history throughout the XX century. It doesn't mean that there are no courageous people or competent officers in the US Army. Of course there are, there are many robust professionals up to a level of division, after that ... So, let them wet dream. Or "spread targeting across borders", as one child correctly stated:

Because you do not come to the gunfight with a knife--the truth many US generals didn't learn yet, many never will. And don't start me on the officer corps education. 

When Cope Harder Phrase ...

 ... fully applies))

US wins against Russian and Chinese air defenses in other countries risk teaching the wrong lessons. US forces that executed a raid in Venezuela to capture its now-former leader walked away with no aircraft lost to the country's Russian-made air-defense systems and Chinese-made radars. In the aftermath, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that it "seems those Russian air defenses didn't quite work so well, did they?" He didn't elaborate any further, but in briefings, the top US general spoke about how US forces dismantled and destroyed enemy air defenses. While the US can draw a certain degree of confidence in its capabilities from the success of the mission, there's a risk of reading too much into that success, especially when it comes to weapons made by American rivals in the hands of other militaries. Some of the failures of the Venezuelan-operated foreign air defenses, for example, have been attributed to issues like inactivity, incompetence, and a dearth of functional cohesion between different systems.

Some? You mean Venezuelan military being corrupt and bought out and thus disabling air defense?  WOW! There is a reason why Russia was wrapping up her presence in Venezuela in a duration of the last five years or so. I know, many people from Latin America are afraid of facing reality, but it was exposed in Venezuela and how it gladly sold its President to the US. Moreover, Pete Hegseth with his basic education in "Politics", whatever that means, and ROTC (a euphemism for pseudo-military "training") wouldn't know a first thing about Air Defense, nor will understand it due to a complete lack of an academic and experience tool kit for that. 

Having said all that, people with a much broader (still amateurish) grasp of technological realities in Pentagon (yes, there are still some there) put their input into the 2026 National Defense Strategy and tacitly admitted what I was warning about for the last almost two decades. 

Russia will remain a persistent but manageable threat to NATO’s eastern members for the foreseeable future. Indeed, although Russia suffers from a variety of demographic and economic difficulties, its ongoing war in Ukraine shows that it still retains deep reservoirs of military and industrial power. Russia has also shown that it has the national resolve required to sustain a protracted war in its near abroad. In addition, although the Russian military threat is primarily focused on Eastern Europe, Russia also possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, which it continues to modernize and diversify, as well as undersea, space, and cyber capabilities that it could employ against the U.S. Homeland.

But even here, the atrocious level of incompetence in the US military and intel circles shines through:

Fortunately, our NATO allies are substantially more powerful than Russia—it is not even close. Germany’s economy alone dwarfs that of Russia.

You cannot fix stupid and that is why US loses all of its wars and will continue to do so because it learns nothing and American military institutions do not provide advanced military education for the XXI century other than Hollywood mode representation of the warfare. So, they cope, they lie to themselves, they lie to the world because they have no guts to admit that the "finest fighting force in history" would crumble in real war within a few weeks and will immediately escalate to the nuclear threshold. I know, it hurts. But today, in Russia, it is a Day of General Staff. 

It was established by the Order of Catherine the Great in 1763 based on the Quartermaster Office of Russian Army established by Peter the Great in 1711. The US will try to emulate it, it will continuously fail--there is no staff and national and military culture which exists in the US capable to support that--US "operations" in 404 exposed what kind of delusion the US military lives in. Nor will the issue of procurement be fixed because you have to have a system in place which the US doesn't have. Just to demonstrate how Russia's General Staff and Russian economy won the arms race. 

Here is comparison of Sarmat and Minuteman III. Yes, hypersonic weapons (such as Avangard), unlimited range and almost 10 times larger payload. But I am sure Germany can replicate it, after all its economy "dwarfs" Russia's. Good luck and cope harder. 

Air "Defense" Context))

I used a short clip of it today, here is a contextual, longer version of the event, which explains what Russian Forces are doing, how "good" (sarcasm) is 404 AD around Odessa. Specifically how any connection with Romania is being dealt with. Zatoka and Mayaki are now under constant strikes. 

And here is the work of 404 air defense. 

I guess the famous meme from brilliant French-British comedy La Grande Vadrouille is in order))

No, Sweethearts ...

 ... pointing out price tags absolutely doesn't explain REAL capability. And ASW IS an organic capability of any ship since 1960s with the exception of purpose-built ships such as small missile ships or aircraft carriers. 

NATO ally Norway is buying advanced warships from the UK in its biggest defense deal ever. NATO officials say the move will sharply strengthen its ability to hunt enemy submarines in the North Atlantic. The £10 billion ($13.5 billion) agreement for Type 26 frigates will tie Norway's navy more closely to Britain's, creating a combined fleet of 13 vessels designed for anti-submarine warfare. London says the ships will bolster NATO's presence in northern Europe as tensions with Russia rise. A NATO official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the allied military capabilities, said the deal provides Norway with "advanced capabilities" in anti-submarine warfare and "other critical missions in the maritime domain." The official said that this "contributes to the broader collective defense" of the alliance. Norway shares a relatively small border with Russia compared to its Nordic neighbor and newly minted NATO ally, Finland. However, the country has a long stretch of coastline well above the Arctic Circle with direct access to the strategic Norwegian and Barents seas.

Here is the catch--in case of (God forbid) real war these toys' combat balance will be counted in minutes, at best hours. 

The same goes for all NATO's surface fleets including their naval bases--they will be destroyed. ASW still remains a critical combat task for fleets anywhere, but if anyone thinks that Type 26 FFG with its Sea Ceptor air-defense is capable to avoid leakers from the salvo of P-800 Oniks, let alone 3M22 Zircon, or even 3M54 Kalibrs at terminal with their M=3 and violent anti-AD maneuvers--I have a bridge for sale. Cash only. 

Considering an extremely low level of the British military and the state of the shipbuilding industry, which at some point DID produce a magnificent Royal Navy, the only thing they are capable of is building of legacy platforms which are not survivable in the modern combat environment. I will remind you again, what the area of search for a single deployed pr. 885M Yasen-class SSGN armed respectively with P-880 Oniks, 3M22 and 3M22M Zircons looks like. 

Ah, yes--another thing: without the US' ISR capabilities which would provide targeting in the first hours of the conflict (after that they will be shot down or suppressed), Russia will be able to continue providing reliable targeting globally, which allows the use of the weapons at their maximum range. Did I mention that NATO's AD technology is pathetic? Yes, that--proven empirically on very many occasions. 

When Your Expertise Is ...

 ... in writing all kinds of pseudo-military BS. I stress, again--you cannot explain to average journo anywhere in the wolrd what this thing is. They simply will have difficulties grasping it. Let's start with "nodes" (or nexuses):

PI/L and PH/I are those probabilities (nexuses) where the whole thing collapses on itself even in the "single shot", especially when you consider what highlighted in yellow "engaged in the fire control solution" means. It literally means that your AD complex received this "firing solution" and is capable to perform intercept of anti-shipping cruise missile (ASCM). That is in the fairy tales, of course, and is useless against genuine hypersonic missiles such as 3M22 Zircon or Kinzhal. In this case your kill chain begins to dissolve already at PH--Susceptibility segment. 

So, what then is this news about from the neocon central?

United States destroyers recently received upgrades in hardware and training for defense as China is set to unveil new missiles designed to sink enemy warships. China's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a written request for comment. U.S. defense contractor Raytheon announced on Tuesday that the AN/SPY-6(V)4 radar recently completed its first live test in a maritime environment at the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Hawaii, successfully tracking air and surface targets under various conditions. The AN/SPY-6(V)4 is one of four variants in the SPY-6 radar family for U.S. naval vessels, capable of simultaneously defending against ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles, as well as anti-surface and anti-air threats, and countering jamming and electronic warfare. Unlike ballistic missiles that follow a predictable trajectory, hypersonic missiles—capable of flying over five times the speed of sound—can maneuver during flight, making them difficult to intercept. Three of China's new anti-ship weapons could be hypersonic missiles.

It is impossible to explain to any US media maroon that AN/SPY-6(V)4 is just a better, more sensitive radar of the venerable Spy-1D line into AESA variant, whose task is not "to defend" (radar cannot "defend"--it is merely a part of a complex which actually defends) but provide all it can BEFORE the Engagement phase (see the picture of Kill Chain above) before the actual engagement happens which IS the launch of AD missiles which will be now guided before their Active Radar Seeker captures the anti-shipping missile by means of these guys which "pulse" until the AD missile seeker captures the target and now is in shoot-and-forget mode:  

And here they are: AN/SPG-62 fire control radar. I will omit here discussing Chinese hypersonic missiles such as (for now only claims) YJ-21. If the data about this missile is correct and it does reach terminal while maneuvering at M=10, the US Navy simply has no KINETIC means, yes those AD missiles, to do anything about it, period. Whether the US Navy has SPY 6, or 10, or hell knows what--the Air Defense contour of ANY US Navy's Arleigh Burke-class DDG is simply a weapon complex for XX century threats, it is not designed to engage a single, forget a 2-4-6 etc. salvo of hypersonic weapons, and survive. SM-6, SM-3--these are all weapons conceived and designed in 1990s against the "enemy" which fits into the description of decrepit and backward "opponents" like Iraq or Libya. The US Navy ran into the brick wall of Houthis recently, we all know the result. 

Remember the guy? 

He ripped a new ass-hole to all those "strategists" at the Millennium Challenge 2002. Read it, read it--there is a lesson there, Van Riper used salvos of slow subsonic "Iranian" missiles similar to US Harpoons against the "best fighting force in history". They couldn't handle it. They never could, and we saw the "quality" of the US-made air defense systems in SMO. If you think that adding new radar, however capable, without having kinetic means to defend oneself is awesome--I have a bridge to sell you. Prepayment, I'll give the account number in private. Any takers?

But sheer idiocy of the US "experts" doesn't stop there. Neocons' propaganda machine is hurting. Good, this filth must be removed from positions of power and influence if the US is to survive. 

Russia to reject US and EU offer of security guarantees to Ukraine – ISW report.

Yes, one of a very few times the Institute for Sinecures for War Amateurs such as Keane or Petraeus landed anything reminiscent of the truth is this. Russia can continue with SMO as long as she wants to and convulsions of EU regimes are of no concern to Russians. Why Russia needs to talk to the US I explained so many times that it becomes ridiculous repeating it ad nauseam. Europe is over, the US? Will see. 

A Bit More On Mach Velocities ...

... and NATO (and 404) air defense systems. Before, though. Keep in mind that Patriot PAC3 main missiles used in 404 are MIM-104 D/E and possibly MIM-104F--the most advanced missile Patriot has whose velocity, unlike it is the case with MIM-104 D/E is "unknown", but in reality is the same as for MIM-104 D/E which is Mach=3.5. Mach=3.5 translates into roughly 1.2 kilometers per second and it is critical to understand why this news is absolutely astounding. Here is a famous (granted imprecise) graphics with capabilities comparison. 

We also know that S-400's long range missile 40N6E is capable of shooting down targets with the velocities of M=14, which would imply ballistic targets, while aerodynamic M=3.5 such as said MIM-104F represent pretty standard target for S-300 and C-400 family. What IS the REAL, not export variant and fanboys' "data" velocities for both 40N6E (1, 2, 3 etc.) and 48N6 which would be the culprits in shooting down Patriot's missiles, it is M=5.9 and above. How much exactly? Way above. Here is a scheme of probable deployment of S-400s at the front. 

Add here A-50s and their coverage of the front and you will get the idea of how this all happens. Keep in mind that the distance of the deployed S-300s and S-400s from the line of the combat contact is around 50 (give and take) kilometers. 

Recall how both S-300s and S-400s wiped the remnants of the 404 Air Force off the skies while allowing Russian Air Force operate safely at the echelons which provide a necessary altitude for the use of increasingly long-range FABs with UMPKs while operating even within the possible ranges of detection and firing of Patriot PAC3s. But in the end, apart from this impact, reality for the crème de la crème of NATO's AD is very sad--the moment any of those Patriots, SAMP-Ts or Iris with NASAMS turn on their radar--that's pretty much it for them, but a completely different algorithm of search kicks in and those ADs do not live long even if they managed to launch and escape (for now). Remember probability density? 

The proof of this working brilliantly is this:

The last remaining NATO AD complexes, like this IRIS-T a few days back, being wiped out and AAA remaining the only option for utterly destroyed NATO and 404 AD system. I wonder, if those operational quantum computers Vladimir Putin talked about three days ago have a "hand" in SMO? Hm, something tells me they do have, a big one and you know, Russians do not like to use their models in Garbage In--Garbage Out (GIGO) mode. That's why Russians win wars. Per breaking encryption and using quantum computational (immense) capabilities for geopolitical forecasting? You can bet your ass on that being done. 

Say It Ain't So.

 In related news--water is wet, fire is hot and concrete floors are hard. 

Israel concealed that Iranian missiles hit several key military sites across the country during the recent 12-day war, The Telegraph reported on Saturday, citing radar data. The data, provided to the British paper by Oregon State University researchers who track bomb damage using satellite radar, indicates that six Iranian missiles hit five military facilities in the north, south, and center of Israel, including a major air base, an intelligence gathering center, and a logistics base. The extent of the reported damage is unclear. However, the hits were not publicly reported due to heavy military censorship, according to the report. When pressed on the issue, the Israel Defense Forces, declined to comment, only saying that “all relevant units maintained functional continuity throughout the operation.”

But this is not what catches an eye, no. This does: 

Analysis cited by The Telegraph suggests that Israeli and US air defenses generally performed well, intercepting most of the incoming fire, although the share of missiles that penetrated through Israeli defenses rose to about 16% by the seventh day. The paper noted that this could have been linked with Israeli attempts to conserve ammunition, improved tactics by Iran, or the deployment of more advanced and harder-to-intercept weaponry.

This is an utter BS, concocted for hiding a devastating effect of Iranian strikes and a pathetic performance by Israeli-US AD, which led Israel to begging for a cease-fire. A "performance" corroborated by a dismal (lack of) effectiveness of NATO AD complexes in 404--which IS a feature of all West's AD systems. While classifying the impact of strikes is understandable, claims of 84% "effectiveness", especially from some "researches" from Oregon State University are down right propaganda, considering the well established trend of most US "academe" and military accepting Ukrainian propaganda about shooting down "most" of Russian drones and missiles, including hypersonic ones. Where are, one may ask, those "satellite radar" data on Yuzhmash? I thought so. 

This is Nevatim base last year. 

You can all see how "effective" Israeli AD is, all 84% of it/s. 

Bad Rap For Rafale.

I cannot verify stated and mocked in this video one way or another, but if true--Rafale may go in its reputation the same way as other French military hardware--utter inability to fight modern war. 

I want to reiterate the point--as SMO has demonstrated, NATO, from Pentagon to Brussels is not capable to plan and conduct combined arms operations. The pivot of all those operations is what is known in Russia as MRAU (Mass Missile Aviation Strike). Without it, all NATO armies, including the US Army, are paper tigers. Already by 1980 the Soviet air defense of the Central Industrial Region could handle MRAU by NATO (not without some damage, obviously), which at that time did have real air forces and missiles. But then again, the generation of NATO officers who had the grasp of COFM is gone today. 

Summary.

As if this hasn't been clear before. 

1. For "journos"--"explosions in Tehran" don't mean "explosions IN Tehran". Most of the time those are the work of air defense and "explosions in the skies OVER Tehran";

2. Salvo model and issue of "leakers" describe perfectly any SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense). Israel has NO resources to conduct this against Iran;

3. Whatever "leakers" there were--they were very few and, sadly, managed to kill 4 Iranian servicemen;

4. Whatever Israel launched--most of it was intercepted. I don't know the percentage but it is very high. NATO is reeling from recognition of the effectiveness of the Iranian AD, as is Israel;

5. Deterrence worked, that much is clear--Israel never recovered from tour de force of Iranian strike capabilities on October 1st, and now Iran demonstrated that it can defend herself--this is not what NATO and Israel are used to when killing defenseless civilians;

6. US President Joe Biden has expressed hope that the IDF strikes mark the end of the escalation in the Middle East.“It looks like [Israel] didn’t hit anything other than military targets. My hope is this is the end,” he told reporters in Philadelphia. He added that he’d been briefed on the matter by the American intelligence community.

That's right, the only thing which is left for Israel and Washington is hope that Iran doesn't retaliate because it could be much worse than October 1st and Israel better hope that Putin is engaged and is calming things down with his Iranian counterparts. 

That was feeble from Israel, to put it mildly--militarily it is not in the same league. I wonder if Iranians want to get THAAD which will be provided to Israel, if they decide (hopefully not) to retaliate. 

And here is the post in comments from evidently hugely successful discussion yesterday between Nima, Larry and me.   

As a Sunni Muslim, Andrei is correct about what’s going on in the Sunni world. About half are doubling down in their hatred of all things Shia and getting more entrenched in secular nationalism, but half are seriously considering a united Muslim world under the leadership of Iran. We Sunnis are starting to think Allah has blessed Iran.

Many people still cannot grasp a gigantic mental shift in Ummah against the background of Iran not talking but coming out swinging. It is really metaphysical. It is so gigantic that I cannot find proper terms to describe it--the Arab street took a note... big time.

It Is More Than That...

Larry wrote a good size and good piece on Daniel Davis interviewing Ben Hodges. Enough to read that Ben Hodges calls Russians "animals" to understand that this general suffers with debilitating case of both exceptionalism having a cognitive fight with a severe complex of inferiority, because Hodges wouldn't be able to pass exams into Russian Academy of General Staff, where his combat record would be laughed at. Not openly, of course. But here is one point (correct one) Larry makes:   

Scott Ritter, Doug MacGregor, Ray McGovern and I (along with a few others), wrote and spoke widely at the time that the counter offensive would fail because, as Hodges conceded, Ukraine had no air power to provide close air support. Here is Hodge’s failure — he refused to incorporate the fact of Ukraine’s deficit in air power into his analysis at the time. He knew it then. That is why I maintain he is incompetent as a military analyst. He chose hope over facts. A pattern he repeats throughout the interview with Danny. Danny then presses Hodges to recount if there were any conversations at the time about what Ukraine needed to succeed in its counter offensive. 

But there is more to it than just that. I wrote about it before, but it becomes clear that most US top brass has no understanding of the modern air defense. It is not surprising for the military force which is being shaped by largely confabulated US military history and never conducting SEAD operations against REAL modern air defense. Here is Yuri Selivanov noting a few days ago, what I wrote four books about:

Надо только быть немножко в курсе, из чего состоит так называемая «военно-воздушная слава США». А состоит она из таких специфических «подвигов», которые полностью  объясняют  все нынешние неурядицы с подготовкой украинских пилотов на Ф-16. Дело в том, что ВВС США, а заодно и всех остальных натовских стран все свои предыдущие войны, конца 20-го – начала 21-го веков, вели в настолько сказочно-комфортных условиях, что они могли там летать даже на метлах, причем с хорошими шансами выполнить боевую задачу.  Все те страны, которые они намечали в качестве объектов для своих бомбардировок в последние тридцать лет, были очень разными. Но в одном все как на одно лицо.У всех этих стран либо вообще не было никакой противовоздушной обороны, либо даже она была, но в таком количественном и качественном  состоянии, что её хватало очень  ненадолго.  А дальше, после подавления этой почти символической ПВО, начиналось форменное избиение младенцев. Так было дважды в Ираке, однажды в Югославии,  и, наконец, в  самом беззащитном Афганистане.В последнем случае ПВО отсутствовала от слова совсем, что, во-первых, позволило бомбить эту страну абсолютно безнаказанно. А во-вторых, отправить туда для проверки боевых качеств новейшие палубные ударные истребители Ф-35Б.

Translation: You just need to be a little bit aware of what the so-called "US air force glory" consists of. And it consists of such specific "feats" that completely explain all the current troubles with the training of Ukrainian pilots on the F-16. The fact is that the US Air Force, as well as all other NATO countries, fought all their previous wars at the end of the 20th - beginning of the 21st centuries in such fabulously comfortable conditions that they could even fly there on brooms, and with a good chance of completing a combat mission. All those countries that they designated as targets for their bombing in the last thirty years were very different. But in one thing they all look the same. All these countries either did not have any air defense at all, or even had it, but in such a quantitative and qualitative state that it was enough for a very short time. And then, after the suppression of this almost symbolic air defense, a real massacre of the innocents began. This happened twice in Iraq, once in Yugoslavia, and finally in the most defenseless Afghanistan. In the latter case, there was absolutely no air defense, which, firstly, allowed bombing this country with absolute impunity. And secondly, sending the newest F-35B carrier-based strike fighters there to test their combat capabilities.

The problem with the US CAS (Close Air Support) on the modern battlefield of the 21st century is that it is not survivable against immediate frontline distributed AD based on a staggering plethora of advanced and networked hardware such as S1 Pantsir, Tor M2, Buk-M2-3 and AD artillery systems such as Tunguska et al. It will also be severely jammed and denied accurate approach in the absence of GPS. The whole idea that the USAF will be defeated even before it even takes off and then defeated before completion of the mission doesn't sit well with US generals whose combat record even against supremely inferior enemy is dismal. This is not an exaggeration, it is  hard cold reality and that is what drives these sore losers like Hodges into the arms of sheer delusion. Then, let it be no surprise in observing Ben Hodges and his "colleagues" such as Keane, Petraeus and others resorting to the name calling and offering military "advice" which no responsible competent military leader would ever give, especially when having no clue about Russia and her historic warfare experience which dwarfs that of the United States. USMA at West Point used to be a decent engineering school. Not anymore...

Meanwhile At Okean-24.

Working fleet air defense against... P-270 Moskit (NATO--Sunburn). High supersonic (M=2.9) with violent terminal anti-AD maneuver. 

Air Defense complex Redut of the project 20380 corvettes. You know this Redut thingy, its ground version is known to us as S-350 Vityaz and people in the know describe its performance at SMO as astonishing. As you can see yourself artillery also takes part together with chaff and other EW means. So, this is how fast supersonic Anti-shipping missiles are shot down.

The Number Is Shocking...

 ... it also explains why nobody can touch Russian Air Defense and Anti-Missile systems. It also explains a colossal size of Russian economy capable to produce copious amounts of very high end weapon systems and munitions. 

МОСКВА, 12 августа. /ТАСС/. Более 40 тыс. воздушных целей противника уничтожено за период проведения спецоперации средствами противовоздушной обороны (ПВО). Об этом ТАСС сообщил генеральный директор Концерна воздушно-космической обороны "Алмаз-Антей" Ян Новиков. "Благодаря слаженной работе Минобороны России и концерна, по данным Министерства обороны Российской Федерации, за период проведения СВО уничтожено более 40 тысяч воздушных целей противника", - сказал он.

Translation: MOSCOW, August 12. /TASS/. More than 40,000 enemy air targets were destroyed by air defense systems during the special operation. This was reported to TASS by the General Director of the Almaz-Antey Air and Space Defense Concern, Yan Novikov. "Thanks to the coordinated work of the Russian Defense Ministry and the concern, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, more than 40,000 enemy air targets were destroyed during the special operation," he said.

Moreover, those gargantuan arrays of combat information are the foundation for Russian air defense systems global domination for decades to come. This combat and scientific-engineering experience is priceless, you cannot buy it. They threw at Russia and her people everything combined West had, with the exception of the Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, they failed because more than 95% of it was intercepted. This is unprecedented. Just a reminder...

Thousand 40N6 Missiles in Three Years: russia Announced Massive Production Plan for Newly Tested 400 km Range SAM for S-400 Systems

And this is just ONE type of a missile for S-400. There are many other types of missiles and AD complexes. Those damn Russkies, they sure know how to bypass sanction and import those washing machines for microchips.