It Is More Than That...

Larry wrote a good size and good piece on Daniel Davis interviewing Ben Hodges. Enough to read that Ben Hodges calls Russians "animals" to understand that this general suffers with debilitating case of both exceptionalism having a cognitive fight with a severe complex of inferiority, because Hodges wouldn't be able to pass exams into Russian Academy of General Staff, where his combat record would be laughed at. Not openly, of course. But here is one point (correct one) Larry makes:   

Scott Ritter, Doug MacGregor, Ray McGovern and I (along with a few others), wrote and spoke widely at the time that the counter offensive would fail because, as Hodges conceded, Ukraine had no air power to provide close air support. Here is Hodge’s failure — he refused to incorporate the fact of Ukraine’s deficit in air power into his analysis at the time. He knew it then. That is why I maintain he is incompetent as a military analyst. He chose hope over facts. A pattern he repeats throughout the interview with Danny. Danny then presses Hodges to recount if there were any conversations at the time about what Ukraine needed to succeed in its counter offensive. 

But there is more to it than just that. I wrote about it before, but it becomes clear that most US top brass has no understanding of the modern air defense. It is not surprising for the military force which is being shaped by largely confabulated US military history and never conducting SEAD operations against REAL modern air defense. Here is Yuri Selivanov noting a few days ago, what I wrote four books about:

Надо только быть немножко в курсе, из чего состоит так называемая «военно-воздушная слава США». А состоит она из таких специфических «подвигов», которые полностью  объясняют  все нынешние неурядицы с подготовкой украинских пилотов на Ф-16. Дело в том, что ВВС США, а заодно и всех остальных натовских стран все свои предыдущие войны, конца 20-го – начала 21-го веков, вели в настолько сказочно-комфортных условиях, что они могли там летать даже на метлах, причем с хорошими шансами выполнить боевую задачу.  Все те страны, которые они намечали в качестве объектов для своих бомбардировок в последние тридцать лет, были очень разными. Но в одном все как на одно лицо.У всех этих стран либо вообще не было никакой противовоздушной обороны, либо даже она была, но в таком количественном и качественном  состоянии, что её хватало очень  ненадолго.  А дальше, после подавления этой почти символической ПВО, начиналось форменное избиение младенцев. Так было дважды в Ираке, однажды в Югославии,  и, наконец, в  самом беззащитном Афганистане.В последнем случае ПВО отсутствовала от слова совсем, что, во-первых, позволило бомбить эту страну абсолютно безнаказанно. А во-вторых, отправить туда для проверки боевых качеств новейшие палубные ударные истребители Ф-35Б.

Translation: You just need to be a little bit aware of what the so-called "US air force glory" consists of. And it consists of such specific "feats" that completely explain all the current troubles with the training of Ukrainian pilots on the F-16. The fact is that the US Air Force, as well as all other NATO countries, fought all their previous wars at the end of the 20th - beginning of the 21st centuries in such fabulously comfortable conditions that they could even fly there on brooms, and with a good chance of completing a combat mission. All those countries that they designated as targets for their bombing in the last thirty years were very different. But in one thing they all look the same. All these countries either did not have any air defense at all, or even had it, but in such a quantitative and qualitative state that it was enough for a very short time. And then, after the suppression of this almost symbolic air defense, a real massacre of the innocents began. This happened twice in Iraq, once in Yugoslavia, and finally in the most defenseless Afghanistan. In the latter case, there was absolutely no air defense, which, firstly, allowed bombing this country with absolute impunity. And secondly, sending the newest F-35B carrier-based strike fighters there to test their combat capabilities.

The problem with the US CAS (Close Air Support) on the modern battlefield of the 21st century is that it is not survivable against immediate frontline distributed AD based on a staggering plethora of advanced and networked hardware such as S1 Pantsir, Tor M2, Buk-M2-3 and AD artillery systems such as Tunguska et al. It will also be severely jammed and denied accurate approach in the absence of GPS. The whole idea that the USAF will be defeated even before it even takes off and then defeated before completion of the mission doesn't sit well with US generals whose combat record even against supremely inferior enemy is dismal. This is not an exaggeration, it is  hard cold reality and that is what drives these sore losers like Hodges into the arms of sheer delusion. Then, let it be no surprise in observing Ben Hodges and his "colleagues" such as Keane, Petraeus and others resorting to the name calling and offering military "advice" which no responsible competent military leader would ever give, especially when having no clue about Russia and her historic warfare experience which dwarfs that of the United States. USMA at West Point used to be a decent engineering school. Not anymore...

The "Unexpected" (Not Really) Problem.

Russian troops report all along the line of contact. Obviously such a video is not available on YT. The problem is with the smell of rotting corpses of VSU cannon fodder--most of them lay in the field and are not evacuated. As you may expect the putrid smell is unbearable. Which brings us to the issue of KIAs--the number is growing. So much so, that even creeps from WaPo quote:

Kiev has lost a substantial number of Western-supplied armored vehicles in attempts to breach well-fortified Russian defenses in the southern section of the front, the Washington Post reported on Saturday, citing a military officer on the ground. In an interview with the newspaper, an unnamed Ukrainian air-assault-unit commander claimed that Kiev had gained some ground in Zaporozhye Region near the settlements of Robotino and Verbovoye, scenes of fierce fighting in recent weeks, although he admitted that the advance was “modest.”He added that the progress came at a high cost in military vehicles, including German Marder and US Stryker infantry fighting vehicles. “A lot of equipment was lost there,” he said, without providing exact numbers. The commander also pointed out that Ukrainian troops have encountered serious defenses along their way. “You just have to understand that there is a saturation of anti-tank mines and a saturation of enemy forces, it’s just colossal”, he said.

Which brings us to 404 BS about Klescheevka, which, in accordance to Western propaganda, is under "control" of VSU. First, there is literally nothing left of it, and secondly, as Akhmat guys laugh: yes, khokhol CAN enter Klescheevka, the problem for them is that by far not all of them can exit it afterwards. They played the video of how VSU cannon fodder "conducts operations" around there--basically they get personnel there, after that it gets slaughtered by Akhmat, then they wait for another batch and the process repeats itself over and over again. So, everything you need to know about NATO "tactics". 

Now, even sewer of Business Insider cannot bypass this "news". 

Russia's Soviet-era airplane bombs present a lethal challenge to Ukraine because they are difficult to intercept even using the most advanced air defense systems,  military experts say. Oleksiy Melnyk, from the Kyiv-based think tank Razumkov Center, said that combatting air-dropped bombs was "particularly vexing" for Ukraine. Hi-tech air defense missiles are designed to strike more lightweight targets and are ill-equipped to counter the bombs' old, heavy iron construction. The bombs' dense build and Russia's ample stocks are a significant problem for Ukraine, he said. The powerful bombs can weigh from 1,100 to 2,200 pounds. Melnyk told Insider that the "dumb" freefalling bombs are dropped from an aircraft during horizontal flights or with the plane's nose up or down. He said the plane's alignment and "altitude will further define the ballistic trajectory." 

Well, correct, he just forgot to make a distinction that these are Western "hi-tech" systems which cannot do that--all major Russian air defense complexes, however, have heavy bombs as their standard targets. E.g. for Buk AD system, JDAM munitions in all of their "modifications" is a standard target, not to mention the fact that that AD system is much more than just kinetic means. But what can you say? Real war is not studied in Western military academies, evidently. But then again, you cannot teach military science to cretins who work as "experts" in US media. 

As Larry penned the excellent piece on Ben Hodges:

Ben Hodges was not a good general and he is doing an even worse job as a pundit in his dotage. Ignore his “Pillsbury” doughboy demeanor. He can’t help that he is starting to look like his Aunt Mildred as he ages (just one of the consequences of losing testosterone and eating too much pudding). At least Jack Keane looks and sounds like a guy who once was a general. But Hodges cannot be excused for being a blind, partisan cheerleader when it comes to discussing the war in Ukraine. His weak-minded, shallow analysis reflects poorly on his prior education and his failure to comprehend concepts such as strategy, tactics and order of battle. To quote Bugs Bunny, “what a maroon.”

Exactly, and what I highlighted is even more important--Russian operational level officers are dumbfounded by sheer idiocy and manifest military incompetence of Western generals the likes of Petraeus, Ben Hodges, Keane et al, not to mention clowns from British Army who "consult" already retarded British media. The question is: what did they study in their service life? Evidently not much. So, when I say that such people like Petraeus or Ben Hodges wouldn't be allowed to command even the regiment in Russian Armed Forces I do not exaggerate much. 

Scott and Larry Make Their (Professional) Points.

First, Scott Ritter does a very simple (operational) arithmetic about Javelins, or rather mythology surrounding them:

As I repeat ad nauseam: numbers, when taken in an appropriate context, do not lie. 

Then Larry Johnson makes a very good case about propaganda BS in Western MSM (full piece is behind the link) and debunks accusations of spreading Russian propaganda:

In writing this hard truth I am frequently accused of simply passing on Russian propaganda. Not true. If you have the videos of the Ukrainians wreaking havoc on the Russians please let me know. I have not seen it. And as I noted above, I do not doubt for a minute that U.S. news media would be showing these videos if they existed. This may be a decisive week for the continued existence of organized Ukrainian military operations. The Russian military appears to be following Putin’s directive–demilitarize Ukraine.

Read the whole thing. Meanwhile I am also accused of being Russian propagandist, especially considering my background. But above are two American (real patriotic) senior cadre officers of both solid intelligence and USMC pedigree, who say pretty much the same things I say all the time. As Larry correctly states: "show me the money", show the real, not fake, columns of Russian POWs or fields littered with Russian armor. Where are those hundreds of shot down Russian combat aircraft. If one excludes dubiously framed by Ukrainian side and still unclear events with RKR Moskva, as Larry, or Douglas Macgregor, or Scott or many others, yours truly included, correctly say all the time--most Ukrainian "victories" are fakes which are debunked usually within 48 to 72 hours, even US MSM sometimes are forced to admit those fakes. 

But there is one other aspect here of which Scott talks about and I wrote books: US weapons, traditionally grossly overpriced, are not that good as they are portrayed. It is no secret that utterly incompetent performance of Arab armies in Middle Eastern wars against Israel created a good excuse in the West to trash Soviet Weaponry, their "monkey-models" operated by often barely literate Egyptian and Syrian soldiers in 1960s and 1970s. But the reality, especially against the background of a competent use of Soviet weaponry by Vietnam in the same time of Arab-Israeli wars, was telling the other story. Today, everything changed. Syrian Air Defense is one of the most engaged and combat experienced, with excellent combat record to its credit, air defense forces in the world. Arabs are learning the ways of combined arms warfare and they are certainly not Arab military of 1960s. Same goes for Iranian forces in Syria--these guys are not pushovers anymore. As you may have guessed it--all of them use Soviet/Russian weaponry. 

But unlike it was for the Soviet Union in Arab-Israeli wars, annihilation of the VSU, which was thought to be by the US an exhibit A of the glory of American strategic planning, C3 and battlefield weapons provided for the largest European army, is turning out to be a reputational catastrophe. Even fanatical and well-armed Ukie Nazis are no match for Russian forces. That creates a mood bordering on hysteria among D.C. "elites" overwhelming majority of who bought their own military propaganda, which is easy when practically none of them has any serious military pedigree. If I would have been today a senior American officer with proper military combat background, I would have been disturbed and embarrassed by the US "military experts" on all major US news networks who parade themselves as military amateurs, despite many of them having general and colonel ranks. Most of their "analysis" is cringe worthy. 

But their state was described long time ago in a relation to a man (Napoleon), who, unlike their pathetic selves, was and is considered one of the greatest military leaders in history even by his enemies:

In former battles he had only considered the possibilities of success, but now innumerable unlucky chances presented themselves, and he expected them all. Yes, it was like a dream in which a man fancies that a ruffian is coming to attack him, and raises his arm to strike that ruffian a terrible blow which he knows should annihilate him, but then feels that his arm drops powerless and limp like a rag, and the horror of unavoidable destruction seizes him in his helplessness"

Leo Tolstoy, War And Peace, Book 10, Chapter XXXIV. 

It goes without saying--there are NO Napoleons in D.C. Not even close, and experiencing a severe cognitive dissonance does drive people to madness. After all, in accordance to Ben Hodges, Russian Army was on the brink of collapse already in mid-March and American weapons were supposed to make all the difference. That's him on March 14. 

Russian forces will culminate within the next ten days if we maintain pressure on them...they have manpower problems and ammo shortages. Accelerate/expand support to UKR to destroy Russian arty, rockets, and cruise missiles. Now is the time to keep our foot on the gas.

What a strategist (s/). It was him in 2015.

"Our soldiers are doing the training with the Ukrainians and we've learned a lot from the Ukrainians," said Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges. "A third of the [Ukrainian] soldiers have served in the ... combat zone, and no Americans have been under Russian artillery or rocket fire, or significant Russian electronic warfare, jamming or collecting — and these Ukrainians have. It's interesting to hear what they have learned."

Right, fighting Afghans or Iraqis is not the same as fighting Russians and not in 2015, primarily LDNR militias, but in 2022 and actual Russian Armed Forces. Judging by the latest eye-witnesses accounts from Donetsk, today, Russian Armed Forces, evidently because they ran out of ammo and are low on morale, unleashed hell. Some people say that even veterans of the last 8 years and those who fought in Syria never saw anything like this. We'll see once first real verified reports start trickling in shortly.