I will try to report on blogspot dialing down on my visitors' count tomorrow--I still give Google a benefit of a doubt for another 24hours--but this shit is really funny))
Wednesday, August 31, 2022
The maneuvers have started at the Far East.
The opening ceremony of the Vostok 2020 strategic exercises took place at a military range in Russia’s Primorsky Region on Wednesday, the Defense Ministry reported. Russia holds drills of this type annually, with the country’s military districts rotating each year as hosts. This year, the Eastern Military District welcomed 13 foreign nations, which accepted Russia’s invitation to send troops or military observers. ...The list of foreign guests includes Azerbaijan, Algeria, Armenia, Belarus, China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Syria, and Tajikistan. Nine of them sent troops to participate in the maneuvers portion of the exercises. Vostok 2022 includes war games for staff officers and field exercises for troops, as well as naval and aerial training. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, over 50,000 soldiers and officers and more than 5,000 pieces of heavy military equipment, including some 140 aircraft and 60 navy ships, will be taking part in the week-long exercise, which starts on Thursday.
China and India are there and that is most important fact. As RT reports further:
The US has expressed concern over the event. During a daily briefing on Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Washington has reservations about “any country exercising with Russia while Russia wages an unprovoked, brutal war against Ukraine.” When pressed, she declined to say whether the US would retaliate against participants, particularly India, for sending its troops to Russia.
No, the US is too busy, evidently, with getting ready to use F-15 against own population.
In a speech on gun control, President Joe Biden taunted “brave right-wing Americans,” telling them that if they want to defend themselves against the government, they’ll “need an F-15.” Biden was slated by his critics, who argued that the Taliban did perfectly well against the US without such weapons. Speaking to supporters in Pennsylvania, Biden promised to ban “assault weapons,” a poorly-defined term that Democrats in Congress claim covers the majority of semi-automatic rifles and pistols sold in the US. Addressing critics of his proposed ban, Biden ridiculed the argument that their firearms serve as a last line of defense against government overreach. “And for those brave, right-wing Americans who say it’s all about keeping America … independent and safe: If you want to fight against a country, you need an F-15,” Biden declared. “You need something a little more than a gun.”
Right. Difficult to explain to a walking mummy what real war is. But then again, sent him back to Scranton's former lace factory to observe some results.
Tuesday, August 30, 2022
Today's session of Russian government on electronics.
«В первом полугодии провели стратегическую сессию, определили перспективный облик электронной промышленности, обозначили совершенно конкретные цели и задачи и (способы. — RT) их достижения. Отрасль будет получать беспрецедентное, я бы сказал, финансирование, причем оно «длинное», на восемь лет мы сделали планы», — цитирует его ТАСС.
Translation: “In the first half of the year, we held a strategic session, determined the perspective look of the electronics industry, outlined very specific goals and objectives and (methods. - RT ) to achieve them. The industry will receive unprecedented, I would say, funding, and it is “long”, we have made plans for eight years, ”TASS quotes him.
Now, consider the fact that Russia is awash in cash and this program (in Russian) is much more than some isolated electronics sector. It is comprehensive and involves development of the machine building complex for electronics, and that is the thing which creates a lot of nervousness in the West. FYI, Taiwan and its TSMC is not exactly "independent" in its manufacturing wink, wink, ASML, cough-cough. Considering what Russia's REAL scientific-technological capability is, I would say the prognosis for this program succeeding is good.
Recall, more than two weeks ago I stressed:
US media continue to spread this BS about Iranian UAVs for Russia. Here is official statement from Kremlin from July 19 as reported by NTV
Now Kremlin finally lost its patience:
Moscow has denied claims made by the Washington Post suggesting that Iran is supplying Russian forces with combat drones to be used in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Tuesday that the Bezos-owned newspaper has engaged in quite a bit of “information stuffing” lately, and rejected claims that Moscow had received a shipment of UAVs from Tehran. Nevertheless, Peskov noted that Russia’s relations with Iran are “developing dynamically” and would continue to do so. The response comes after the Washington Post published an article on Monday stating that Iran had sent a shipment of drones to Russia, citing anonymous US and allied officials. The report says Tehran had transferred a number of Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series drones to Moscow and that many of them were already malfunctioning.
People believing this obvious BS is based on two fundamental premises:
1. The only war at which the West is any good is the info-war, or, in layman's lingo--spreading BS. All US MSM media ARE in business of spreading BS.
2. Military-technological illiteracy of people. See my ridicule of all those Dimas, Podolyakas, other "insiders" who wouldn't now shit from shinola when it comes to modern warfare.
I can totally see Bezos, a colorless purveyor of "information technologies" and sending shit to people via Amazon, having a viral hatred of Russia and Russians and thus ordering this cabal of woke psychos at WaPo to print anything discrediting Russia, the more outlandish--the better. But let me, again, get back to these fictional Iranian drones, that even Kirby has to admit.
the White House toned down its allegations. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby admitted that Washington did not actually see any evidence of a deal.“We’ve seen no indications of any sort of actual delivery and/or purchase of Iranian drones by the Russian Ministry of Defense,” Kirby said. Tehran has rejected claims of any drone deals with Moscow, insisting that it would not take a side in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and would continue to push for a peaceful resolution.
I will concentrate on military-technological aspect.
A. Russian Armed Forces have enough UAVs of the most important class--and that is tactical battlefield recon drones--which provide situational and tactical battlefield awareness in abundance. Those also are the ones which provide targeting and fire correcting for all types artillery and some other fire means. This is Orlan-10:
B. What many fanboys-masturbators to shiny military toys want to see, because they watched too much Hollywood, played too many video-games and failed higher math with physics, they want to see, nay, they demand to see operations conducted by those strike UAVs. They want to see it because this is their limit of understanding combined arms combat operations and, as a simple example, morons cannot even conceive the fact that in the environment still saturated with all those Stingers, Iglas and Osa-Ms with Buk-M1s on Ukie side, the issue of annihilation of the masses of Ukie troops by the artillery, such as monstrous Tornado MLRS (just an example) with its range of up 200 kilometers and now GLONASS guided rockets on the targeting from inexpensive Orlan-10 is orders of magnitude more effective than sending there expensive and not designed for such purposes Russian-made strike UAV Orion.
But here is the issue--you cannot explain to some fucking "reporter" or gamer what real operations are and why people go for 6 academic years (in Russia) to military academies and study there physics, math, operations theory, tactics, operational art and then go to war colleges and the best end up in Academy of General Staff and command formations from divisions to military districts. It is also impossible to explain to those people, Bezos that also means you, because civilian and military engineering differ dramatically starting at the tactical applications, that Russian Armed Forces operate in a fully Netcentric paradigm which implies for already serious drones such as Orion, let alone anything even more advanced, a completely different set of comm and control technology which is extremely high end and Iran simply has no access to it and is not able to develop it.
And this is just one such reason among many others why this Iranian UAVs BS is, well, a BS. And here is the 3-year old piece of news which may give some "insight".
In eight year Russia has increased its operational UAV fleet to over 2,000 UAV systems, with new types currently under development.
This was three years ago. Moreover, needless to say that apart from issues of C4 for UAVs which I only briefly touched upon above, there is this issue of... drum roll... requirements. Yes, yes, those things based on decades upon decades, of operational, design and engineering experience which is written in blood and is a thing which armies like Russian one live and die by. Needless to say, that Iran, for all its sometimes impressive achievements is nowhere near in technological development which can satisfy these requirements. This is not plug and play, guys, sort of deal. But then again, in circle, we come back to the most important issue--Russia has a required number of UAVs, be that recon-targeting ones, or strike ones.
But in the end, that is why Russia doesn't buy navy ships of any significance from, say, China, as some overly optimistic (a euphemism for ignorant) Russian military "experts" once were suggesting loudly, because Chinese ships do not satisfy requirements. Nor, the obvious complete import substitution for a whole Russian Military-Industrial Complex is a hollow phrase--latest GLONASS and Liana satellites are 100% on Russian-made electronics--it is a fully working and being implemented program, which also includes these beloved by Hollywood-educated "experts" UAVs. But in the end, did it occur to any moron in WaPo that the country which produces such things as SU-35 or SU-57, or Ka-52 serially will have very little problem developing and building own UAVs. It is 2022, not 1999, people. And that is why I was calling this WaPo, Sullivan and other "reputable" sources from the US about Iranian UAVs a BS from the git go. But then again, what do I know?
P.S. Did I mention Russia's space-based ISR? Don't tell WaPo and Bezos about Liana, they may get ulcers.
...simply left this list of Russia "losing" SMO)))
List of: Lost UKRAINE Cities, Towns, Villages To RUSSIA 2016-01-01 - 2018-02-01 and 2022-02-24 - 2022-08-29
Avdiivka, (Andriivka) Arkhanhelske, Alchevsk (Alcevski) Azov, Antratsy, Almazna, Artemivsk, Antratsyt, Alupka, Armiansk, Alushta, Afanaslivka, Bakhmut (City), Bakhmutske (Town), Bilohirsk, Bakhchysarai, Brid, Barativka, Balakliia, Blahoda, Balka, Borova, Brazhkivka Bilyaivka, Berestove, Beryslav, Blahodatne, Bohorodychne, Berdiansk, Bilmak, Bétmanove, Barnika, Belivskii, Bohdanivka, Bessarabka, Bulavyne, Bulavynske, Berezivske, Burchak-Mykhailivka, Boschova, Brianka, Boguchar, Borshchuvate, Boikivske, Bilokrynýchne, Bezimenne, Bilohorivka, Bamutzke, Bulatske, Borivske, Brahodanke, Borshova, Bilohorivka, Belo-Kamenka, Bobrovyi-Kut, Bruskynske, Blahodativka, Burkhanivka, Bulkahove, Chaplynka, Chertkovo, Chumak, Chervona-Zoria, Chornobaivka, Chernihivka, Chulakivka, Chkalovske, Chystiakove, Cherevkivske, Chyrylianske, Chervone, Chornukhyne, Donetsk (City), Dibrova, Darvika, Dronivka, Dolyna, (Dolia) Dvorichna, Debaltseve, Dniprorudne, Drobysheve, Druzhkivka, Davydiv, Debaltsivske, Danylove, Dersove, Dovzhánsk, Dokuchaievsk, Dovhenke, Dolomitne, Dzhankoi, Davydid-Brid, Enerhodar, Feodosia, Horlivka, Heniches, Hraniv, Hornostaivka, Hirske, Hryhorivka, Holubivka, Holubivske, Hrechani, Hrozne, Huselshchykove, Hrekovo-Oleksandrivka, Izium (Town), Iziumske (Village), Irmino, Inkerman, Ilovarsk, Ilovaisk, Inzhenerne, Ivanivka, Ivnanova, Illinka, Ivano-Kepyne, Kherson City, Kodema, Kadeva, Krymske, Kalynivka, Kalynivske, Kalynove, Konkove, Kholodne, Kovske, Kozatske, Krasnohorivka, Kostiantynivka, Khotimlya, Kerch, Kozacha, Kupiansk, Kyselivka, Khailivka, (Kadiivka) Khrestivka, Kamianka, Kruta, Komuna, Kashtanove, Kreminets, Khrustalnyi, Khartsyzk, Krasnyi-Kozlivka, Kaplany, Khomutove, Kaiutyne, Khreshchatytske, Kuznetsi, Kotliarevske, Kachkarske, Kuznetsovo, Klynkyne, Kruhlyk, Krasnyi-Luch, Kreminna, Krasnoperekopsk, Komyshuvakha, Klynove, Kadivka, Kapytolivka, Knaut Village, Krasnoliubetsk, Kostromka, Luhansk, (Luhanske) Lysychansk City, Lysychanskyi (Village), Lozove, Lobacheve, Lopan, Lyman, Lysychansk, Luhanske, Lavrýnove, (Lohvynove) Lukove, Liubivka, Lisna-Dacha, Mariupol City, Melitopol City, Mariupola Town, Maiórove, Marisko, Marinka, (Marianka) Myronivskyi, Mius, Mykolaivka, Malynove, Mineralne, Molodizhne, Michurine, Mytkovo-Kachkari, Markyne, Metolkine, Maloriazantseve, Malynove, Makiivka, Mykhailivka, Myrne, Mineralne, Muratove, Mala-Seidemynukha, Malaseidemynukha, New York, Novoaidar, Novo-Aidar, Nevelske, Nove, Novodruzhesk, Novoazovsk, Novoluhanske, Novotroitske, Novomaiorske, Novosilka, (Novoselivka) Nova-Kakhovka, Novoraisk, Novohryhorivka, Novomykolaivka, Nyzhnie, Novooleksandrivka, Nova-Petrivske, Nova-Marivka, Naberezhne-Ukrainske, Novozvanivka, Novookhtyrka, Novo-Mikhailevka, Novotoshkivske, Nizichansk, Novopetrivka, Novyi-Shlakh, Novokondakove, Novopoltavka, Novovasylivka, Oleksandrivka, (Oleksándrivske) Olesandrivka, Oleksandropillia, Odnohorivka, Ocheretyne, Oskil, Oleshky, Okip, Olenivka, Ozerne, Obryv, Odoborivka, Olkhovatka, Oheva, Popasna, Pasika, Pesky, (Pisky), Pikuzy, Pody, Polohy, Pryvillia, Pervo, Pervomaisk, Kamianka-Dniprovska, Prymorsk, Pryberezhne, Partyzan, Pakhar, Pavlivka, Petropavlivka, Pokrovsk, Pravdyne, Petrivske Porokhnia, Pervomaiske, Patriotychne, Prymorske, Pervomaisk, Popasna, Plypchatyne, Pokrovske, Pableda, Pitne, Peski-Radkivski, Rubizhne, Rozivka, Rubivka, Ridkodub, Rovenky, Roza, Rozivka, Ridkodub, Rubtsi, Roty, Romanovo-Novohrednieve, Siversk, Svitlodaesk, Sievierodonetsk, Stepok, Snihurivka, Sakhanka, Shchastia, Shcholkine, Selydove, Shevchenkove, Shandryholove, Sevastopol, Simferopol, Skadovsk, Sukhyi Stavok, Soledar, Solodke, Staromlynivka, Staryi-Krym, Sviatohirsk, Siedove aka: Kryva-Kosa, Sadky, Sudak, Syrotyne, Sorokyne, Sokilnyky, Shakhtarsk, Starobilsk, Sanzharivka, Samiilove, Shcherbak Sosnivske, Savelivka, Svatove, Staromy, Stupakove, Shevchenko, Spartak, Syhnalne, Smolianynove, Samsonove, Sukhodil, Sukha-Kamianka, Svobodne, Siedovo-Vasylivka, Snizhne, Stakhanov, Spivakivka, Svitlodarsk, Sulyhivka, Serebianka, Synetskyi, Schashyve, Sukhyi-Stavok, Snihurivka, Starokondakove, Stanislav, Shyroka-Balka, Sofivka, Torez, Taranushyne, Tokmak, Tavrycheske, Travneve, Ternivka, Tozovo, Tsentralne, Tyahynka, Torske, Tykhotske,Teserkva, Toshkivka, Topolivka, Ukrainka, Uzhivka, Udi, Vysokopillia, Vedenske, Vetery-Narne, Volnovakha, Vovchansk, Velykyi-Burluk, Velyka Pokrovka, Vuzlovyi, Vitava, Valuki, Verkhnly-Mamon,Vaniushkyne, Vasylivka, Vasylky, Vesele, Vesela, Vuhlehirsk, Vershynivka, Volia, Vershyna, Vozdvyzhenka, Verkhnoshyrokivske, Volodymyrivka, (Volodymyrinka) Vovchoyarivka, Vrubivka, Veselohorivka, Vidrodzhennia, (Vozdvyzhenka) Vulitar, Vuladar, Vuhlehirsk, Vesela-Dolina, Yenakiieve, Yarenivka, Yasynuvata, Yakovlivka, Yakovenkove, Yenakiieve, Yalta, Yevpatoria, Yampil, Yuzhna, Yampil, Yurivka, Yasna-Poliaa, Zolote, Zaporozhets, Zholobok, Zhdanivka, Zelenyi, Hai-Zernove, Zori, Zelene-Pole, Zavody, Zarichne, Zabavne, Zakitnomu, Zolotarivka, Zaitsev, Zaitseve, Zakitne, Zuhres,
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Yes, Ukrainian "offensive" has succeeded because it achieved its main objective--it created informational noise, especially in the environment of "military experts", such as you can take a look at Dima from Military Summary at Gonzalo's Round-table three weeks ago. This is a definition of an amateur spewing sophomoric military BS with conviction. You know how I hate all those so called SitReps' forecasts, because I clearly understand my huge limitations in knowing what respective staffs know on the ground, let alone what people in General Staff know, but allow me, this time:
Russian forces have taken out hundreds of Ukrainian troops and dozens of tanks and armored military vehicles after repelling an ill-fated offensive in the south of the country, the Defense Ministry claimed on Tuesday. A statement added that officials believe the failerd operation was mounted at the personal order of President Vladimir Zelensky. “The effective actions by the Russian forces destroyed 48 tanks, 46 infantry fighting vehicles, 37 other armored combat vehicles, eight pickups with heavy machine guns and more than 1,200 Ukrainian servicemen in one day,” they outlined. The Ministry added that Kiev sustained these losses during a botched offensive whose directions led to Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog, and other cities in southern Ukraine. The ministry went on to say that Moscow’s forces routed the units of the 128th Ukrainian Mountain Assault Brigade, which had been redeployed from western Ukraine to take part in the operation. “Five service members from this brigade laid down their arms and gave in,” the ministry added.
Let me explain... again! Here is a definition from Russian Combat Manual (Field Manual) of Offensive. Combat Manual describes offensive, in this case, for platoon size formation :
179. Наступление проводится в целях разгрома противостоящего противника, овладения назначенным объектом и создания условий для ведения последующих действий. Оно заключается в поражении противника всеми имеющимися средствами, решительной атаке, стремительном продвижении войск в глубину его боевого порядка, уничтожении и пленении живой силы, захвате вооружения, техники и различных объектов. Под разгромом понимается нанесение противнику такого ущерба, при котором он теряет способность к сопротивлению. Личный состав взвода (отделения, танка), используя результаты огневого поражения противника, должен вести наступление с полным напряжением сил, непрерывно днем и ночью, в любую погоду и в тесном взаимодействии с другими подразделениями разгромить противостоящего противника.
180. В зависимости от обстановки и поставленных задач наступление может вестись на обороняющегося, наступающего или отходящего противника. В зависимости от готовности обороны противника и степени его огневого поражения наступление взвода (отделения, танка) на обороняющегося противника осуществляется с выдвижением из глубины или из положения непосредственного соприкосновения с ним.
Transaltion: 179. An offensive is carried out with the aim of defeating the opposing enemy, capturing the designated object and creating conditions for subsequent actions. It consists in defeating the enemy with all available means, a decisive attack, the rapid advance of troops into the depths of his battle formation, the destruction and capture of manpower, the capture of weapons, equipment and various objects. Defeat is understood as the infliction of such damage on the enemy, in which he loses the ability to resist. The personnel of a platoon (squad, tank), using the results of the fire engagement of the enemy, must conduct an offensive with full effort, continuously day and night, in any weather and in close cooperation with other subunits, defeat the opposing enemy. 180. Depending on the situation and the assigned tasks, an offensive may be carried out against a defending, advancing or retreating enemy. Depending on the readiness of the enemy's defense and the degree of his fire damage, the attack of a platoon (squad, tank) on the defending enemy is carried out from the depth or from a position of direct contact with him.
You may reasonably point out that the definition of offensive by no means contradicts Kiev regime's claims. True in form, not in substance. And here is how professionals view this whole situation:
1. Offensives differ--dramatically. By their aims (scope) and that is why we have strategic offensive operations and tactical ones, where you have formations the size of company-battalion ATTACKING.
2. Here comes this OTHER thing. What is attack. Attack, actually, is a maneuver designed for fastest closing of the distance between us and the enemy (its formations or lines of defense) and here it matters greatly.
Here is this crucial difference, judging by what this Ukie "offensive" has accomplished we can say that VSU ATTACKED--they surely tried to close the distance fast between them and Russian forces. But did they achieve ANY aims of the offensive? Recall definition of the offensive above which describes the essence. Right, I quote Combat Manual, again: It consists in defeating the enemy with all available means, a decisive attack, the rapid advance of troops into the depths of his battle formation, the destruction and capture of manpower, the capture of weapons, equipment and various objects. Do you see any of that achieved? See the news from RT, quoiting Russian MoD. Now take a look at Larry's explanations:
Ukraine only managed to capture Sukhoy Stavok, a small village with no strategic importance. The Ukrainian operation, however, proved very costly to Ukraine, which lost more than 1200 soldiers and almost 50 tanks. The tanks and tank crews are not easily nor quickly replaced. This does not even qualify as a Pyrrhic victory. The Russians still hold the territory.
Yes, VSU ATTACKED and got destroyed. Here is another American real professional.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have no opportunity for an offensive in the Kherson region. This was told by Lieutenant Colonel of the US Army Daniel Davis on Fox News. The Russian military has been moving inexorably forward over the past time, maintaining its presence everywhere. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in turn, talked for months about the offensive in the south, but it did not go beyond words. The Armed Forces of Ukraine simply do not have infantry, ammunition and equipment for offensive operations. Yesterday afternoon, Kiev's forces tried to attack in the Kherson region, but naturally rolled back due to heavy losses and lack of forces.
That's Colonel Douglas MacGregor quoting Daniel Davis. Pay attention how the terminology is used. Now, as people on the ground report (in Russian), the number of attackers of VSU is estimated to be around 12,000, which is roughly a division, but rather two brigades' forces and here, as people from Kherson report is the essence of which I warned for months.
Численность наступавших оценивается примерно в 12 тыс., что критически мало для развития успеха. Второго эшелона и резервов, в том числе техники, в этом районе у ВСУ пока нет, и это идёт вразрез с заявлениями руководства Украины о «миллионе мобилизованных» для «освобождения юга страны». По сути, украинские военные достигли только одного — продвинулись на 7 км в юго-восточном направлении на отрезке между посёлками Андреевка и Лозово и оказались заблокированы на степном ландшафте в районе н. п. Сухой Ставок. Воспользовавшись повышенным вниманием ВС РФ к этому н. п., Киев попытался ликвидировать Архангельский плацдарм (расположен рядом с посёлком городского типа Архангельское, в 45 км на северо-восток от Сухого Ставка), чтобы исключить потенциальную возможность его использования для нанесения ударов системами «Ураган» по опорным пунктам ВСУ на ближних подступах к Кривому Рогу. Эта задумка ВСУ также потерпела фиаско. Активные контрбатарейные и противотанковые действия со стороны российских подразделений, а также авиационные удары Су-25СМ не только обеспечили сохранение контроля над плацдармом, но и позволили пошатнуть обороноспособность ряда украинских укрепов.
Translation: The number of attackers is estimated at about 12 thousand, which is critically not enough for the development of success. The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not yet have a second echelon and reserves, including equipment, in this area, and this runs counter to the statements of the Ukrainian leadership about "a million mobilized" for the "liberation of the south of the country." In fact, the Ukrainian military achieved only one thing - they advanced 7 km in a southeasterly direction on the segment between the villages of Andreevka and Lozovo and found themselves blocked on the steppe landscape in the area of village Sukhoi Stavok. Taking advantage of the increased attention of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to this village. Kyiv tried to eliminate the Arkhangelsk bridgehead (located near the urban-type settlement of Arkhangelskoye, 45 km northeast of Sukhoi Stavok) in order to exclude the potential possibility of its use for strikes by the Uragan systems against the strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the near approaches to Krivoy Rog. This idea of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also failed. Active counter-battery and anti-tank actions by Russian units, as well as Su-25SM air strikes, not only ensured control over the bridgehead, but also made it possible to undermine the defense capability of a number of Ukrainian fortifications.
Now recall what I said--VSU CANNOT conduct successful offensive operations in the area against such forces as Russia has. As Russian military professional (who I respect, actually) Alexey Leonkov tells today (in Russian)--yep, with Russian ISR complex and firepower you just cannot conceal anything and you are going to annihilated, as is the case. But the most telling sign of a VSU's catastrophe in the steppes near Kherson is this piece of news:
Translation: MOSCOW, August 29/ Radio Sputnik. To resolve the Ukrainian conflict, it is necessary to negotiate and seek compromises, Odessa Mayor Gennady Trukhanov said in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.
No shit, genius. Where have you been before and why such a flexibility all of a sudden? And here is the issue: while VSU desperate and catastrophic attack around Kherson may have been an attempt at feint for possible attack in Kharkov area (good luck with that), it is clear that Odessa and establishment of the land bridge to Transdnistria is the final objective of Russia's operations in the South of what used to be Ukraine. In the end, Dmitry Medvedev described 1.5 scenarios in which Kiev has to unconditionally surrender under any scenario. Simple as that. But I am sure that in coming weeks all these military "analysts" such as Podolyakas, Dimas and other professional monetising shysters both in Russia and in the West will continue to tell us about what amounts to a tactical episode which is a good fodder for media circus. Here is my take on this "offensive".
Monday, August 29, 2022
For any observer nowadays it is enough to take a look at the front page of Oilprice.com, popular but definitely globalist in character, resource to make a conclusion that the game is nearing its end and something altogether unknown is ahead of us. Just take a look at these headlines from today, August 29, 2022.
I underlined in red the headlines, among many other ones, which not just testify but scream at you about the ongoing and very visible collapse of Pax Americana and about the world moving away from the West-dominated and centric world.
People ask me all the time to write on this or that matter, primarily military ones, and I understand them. How can one miss that news:
Britain’s biggest ship and the second of the Royal Navy’s two aircraft carriers, HMS Prince of Wales, has broken down shortly after embarking on a cross-Atlantic aviation trial. The carrier “remains in the South Coast Exercise Area while conducting investigations into an emerging mechanical issue,” the Royal Navy’s spokesperson said in a statement to the media on Sunday. The incident occurred just one day after the vessel left Portsmouth for what the Royal Navy described as “a landmark mission to shape the future of stealth jet and drone operations.” The UK Defence Journal cited a source as saying divers discovered that the ship’s propeller shaft appeared to be damaged. According to Sky News, the Prince of Wales is now anchored southeast of the Isle of Wight in England.
OK, let's start with obvious--aircraft carriers of this size, and Prince of Wales is a very large ship, are very complex engineering "products" which, due to their inherent complexity, are bound to have a higher probability of getting something out of order than, as an example, even a fairly large motor yachts, like this gorgeous Fleming 78, my dream never to be realized:
But I agree, things were getting broken with increased frequency around the western world and it is difficult to ignore--across the board things simply refuse to work. If this Ukie "counter-offensive" (in reality--couple battalion attempt at attack tactical episode) which resulted in them having their asses handed to them, naturally, one has to ask the question if those American and British "advisers" planned this whopper? If they did, it merely confirms a suspicion which increasingly becomes a conviction that Western military planners are not good, in fact, incompetent when it comes to fighting a real war. And this is only natural for the realm (Western civ.) where any workable policies and solutions have been completely substituted with the PR activities, which do not require serious skills in anything. Hey, I didn't invent Communications Departments and programs in Western universities. So, yes, shit ceases to work in the West because it is conceived in the alternative universe and is designed as such.
It is akin to HMS Prince of Wales which out of two years in commission spent about 80 days in the sea. Well, on the other hand USS Gerald Ford, four years after her joining, sort of, the fleet, still hasn't been combat ready. The issue, obviously, is systemic and no amount of makeup and voodoo ceremonies can hide the ugly truth of modern West from increasing number of people both in and outside the combined West. Shit will continue to break down and the frequency will only increase. I don't know how the issue of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, joining BRICS will be viewed from Washington or Brussels, but what is absolutely clear, such a move will be the end of NATO as we know it and political and economic crisis unfolding in the West will mark the end of political and economic model whose existence was declared sacred and was supposed to mark the end of history. Can you believe it? Bunch of CEOs and Wall Street banksters bought this shit.
As James Kunstler noted today:
It remains for Mr. Trump to renounce his support for the evil fruits of the Warp Speed operation he presided over. He must face the fact that he was played, and he may be forgiven, considering all the evidence coming recently from the likes of Deborah Birx and others that he was lied to and manipulated. But he doesn’t have much more time to get it right, or else his political career will be over well before the 2024 election. That may be all for the better. America probably needs a clean sweep of our desecrated political landscape. All in all, Mr. Trump was a good soldier, brave and resolute under tremendous adversity, but he’s not the only one who can lead our country back to itself.
Trump WAS played, which does testify to his limited abilities as a statesman, because no serious statesman allows to be manipulated to a degree Trump was--enough to recall why he appointed Mattis a Sec.Def., it is comical--and what James implies and what I speak about for a long time, for the US to not completely disintegrate and maintain its status as major power it will take a new generation of politicians and a demolition of the America's uni-party and the emergence of a strong centrist force. But this is in the future, for now, though, enjoy Saker's description of Ukie "counter-offensive".
Sunday, August 28, 2022
... of one of the reasons for a severe butt-hurt of the West--it cannot fight Russia because its best proxy in history, armed and C4ISRed by allegedly "finest fighting force in history" got its ass handed to it.
Take a look at these screenshots of Tim Bakken's book:
P.S. Per satellites. Russia can take out pretty much whole US intel satellite constellation and jam GPS entirely, but physical annihilation of the satellites is an act of war. So, for now at least, it is not an option.
Not that it is not expected, it is fully expected.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer called on Sunday for the EU to impose a cap on power prices and decouple electricity charges from the price of gas. The Austrian leader said failure to do so would let Russian President Vladimir Putin “determine the European electricity price.” "We must finally stop the madness that is taking place in energy markets. And that can only happen through a European solution,” read a statement from Nehammer’s office. “Something has to happen at last. This market will not regulate itself in its current form. I call on all the EU 27 to stand together to stop this price explosion immediately.”
I have news for Nehammer--there cannot be "European Solution" to anything, because Europe, with some few exceptions, is not a subject of modern geopolitics. We can discuss reasons for this state of the affairs in Europe until hell freezes over, but I am on record for years that EU is America's lunch, period. This is not to say that this will extend America's lifespan greatly, but that was the plan from the git go. I think EU leaders should concentrate on believing Ze's promises and act accordingly:
President Vladimir Zelensky said in his daily evening address on Sunday that Ukraine will recapture Donbass, which is now almost fully seized by Russian forces. “We have not forgotten and will not forget any of our cities and any of our people,” he said. “Now Donbass is almost destroyed by Russian strikes, devastated. The proud and glorious Ukrainian Donetsk was humiliated by the Russian occupation and robbed. But Ukraine will return. For sure. Life will return. The dignity of the people of Donbass will return. The ability to live will return. The opportunity to live safely and happily,” Zelensky added. According to him, this is what the Ukrainian flag will symbolize “when we set it up in Donetsk, Gorlovka, Mariupol, in all cities of Donbass, Azov area, in all areas under Russian occupation – in Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Kherson regions. And definitely in Crimea.” “Ukraine remembers everything,” he concluded.
No? Doesn't work anymore? Who would have thought? I think EU should also support Kiev's space exploration ambitions and its Artificial Intellect research (I kid, I kid, none exists in 404) because present intellect of EU in particular, and West in general, can be easily substituted with 8 bit Atari program and it will still do better. Which, speaking about such sewer as The National Interest rag, get a load of that--an "analysis" from a typical BSer in polit-sci who laments a tsunami of pseudo-military crap which dominates US SMO narrative from the git go, which demonstrates utter incompetence of Pentagon and US "intel", but this guy, obviously, has issues with reality of modern warfare (hint: 99% of people in D.C. and Arlington have) and he cries out:
Take, for instance, the purported certainty in the West that Russia’s military sought to conquer a heavily populated and fervently nationalistic country nearly the size of Texas—and initially, intended to do so in a matter of days, no less. This belief is entirely baseless. In fact, even the U.S. military is incapable of pulling off such a feat in that little time. And yet, the falsehood, which formed the West’s perception of Russia’s intentions, remains unabated. So too is Washington’s incessant deflection of holding any responsibility for provoking the invasion, despite its ubiquitous and escalatory involvement in the precipitating crisis.
Seriously? I have news for this "scholar of warfare", the United States never conducted anything close to the likes of SMO, against the actual standing army of 600,000 while having a force three times smaller and judging by "even the US military" triumphs in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, with a short break for turkey shoot against backward Saddam's Army and the performance of the US military technology in the REAL war environment in a complex terrain, which is dismal, this use of copium is rather silly. The fact that the US hasn't won any serious military campaign since Korea is, obviously, not a fact known to the author, which is not surprising for the US "geopolitical" rag which still publishes this shit:
Yes, the US "expert" community today is nothing more than a collection of parasites who lack understanding of the subject matter, but if it is forgivable to such clown as Kris Osborne, when US generals continue to humiliate themselves publicly by spewing amateurish pseudo-military BS, it is a whole other matter. The depth of ignorance is such, that, as it became known, those people in Pentagon and "intel" thought that Russian Army would use... chemical weapons in SMO. They believed it. It is a systemic institutional failure, which cannot be addressed without redesign of the whole system.
Do I need to explain now why the US cannot fight a real war? With military leaders like that, who needs enemies. But then again, Hodges doesn't know what real war is, they don't teach this anymore in US military academies. How could they--that means a de facto admitting being a loser. I will expand on military education in the West later. Ben Hodges is one such "example".
Saturday, August 27, 2022
The Saker posted Pepe Escobar's excellent piece with a symptomatic title: All the Way to Odessa. In it, Pepe notes:
In parallel, The Lords of (Proxy) War will continue with their own strategy, which is to pillage an enfeebled, fearful, Europe, then dressing it up as a perfumed colony to be ruthlessly exploited ad nauseam by the imperial oligarchy. Europe is now a runaway TGV – minus the requisite Hollywood production values. Assuming it does not veer off track – a dicey proposition – it may eventually arrive at a railway station called Agenda 2030, The Great Narrative, or some other NATO/Davos denomination du jour. As it stands, what’s remarkable is how the “marginal” Russian economy hardly broke a sweat to “end the abundance” of the wealthiest region on the planet. Moscow does not even entertain the notion of negotiating with Brussels because there’s nothing to negotiate – considering puny Eurocrats will only be hurled away from their zombified state when the dire socio-economic consequences of “the end of abundance” will finally translate into peasants with pitchforks roaming the continent.
Pepe was a herald of this unfolding European reality for a very long time, and here it is--being built in front of our own eyes. Read the whole thing at Saker's blog, it is excellent. In related news of Europe becoming poor (just a warmup):
German benchmark power prices for next year soared above €800 per megawatt hour on Friday, nearly 10 times higher than the same period last year, Bloomberg reports. Prices gained as much as 7.6% on Friday to reach €805.15 per megawatt hour on the European Energy Exchange, up 39% this week. Costs have been smashing records on an almost daily basis as the winter heating period approaches. The rally is being driven by growing concerns over Russian natural gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Berlin previously required gas operators to fill underground storage facilities while adhering to a strict schedule, to ensure the country has enough fuel to last the winter. The plan states that storage must be 85% full by October 1, and 95% full by November 1. Experts doubt the goal is achievable.
In Germany they begin to stop escalators in some department stores to "save energy". Right.
Thanks to my friend Mike Krupa who pointed my attention to this piece by Ritter. But first, if you type "Mearsheimer" in the search bar in this blog, the results which will be found containing Mearsheimer's name will be numerous and going back as far as 2015-2016. Well, I am on record that not only most of what passes for the American 'realism' in geopolitics is not really a realism, but it is also as ignorant and exceptionalist as aggressive neoconservatism, which is a euphemism for American imperialism. Most representatives of the 'realist' school in the US are not only just softer less insane version of exceptionalists, most of them are absolutely ignorant on the main tool of geopolitics which is military-industrial power, or, in broader terms--what are those, now proverbial, 14 points by Jeffry Barnett (not to be mistaken with great late Correlli Barnett).
Just a few days ago (namely 9 days ago) I wrote about Mearsheimer, again:
Mearsheimer, for all his accomplishments, continues to demonstrate a
complete ignorance of the realities of modern warfare in his piece in
Foreign Affairs. Mearsheimer, having no clue about what the current
state of military balance in Europe is, speculates how the US can get
involved directly into the conflict. ...Mearsheimer,
a graduate of the USMA at West Point in early 1970s is still stuck
in... 1945 and continues to drink Kool-Aid from US media, not
understanding what state the VSU are in and not understanding that
Russia maintains an overwhelming escalation dominance and ability of a
strategic maneuver by force.
Read the whole piece. But Mearsheimer's sophomoric "forecasting" rubs the wrong way not only me. Scott Ritter wrote an excellent take-down of Mearsheimer's military-nuclear fantasies for RT this week.
Fears that the Ukraine conflict is now bogged down into some sort of stalemate which risks dangerous escalation from the parties involved in order to achieve victory are misplaced. There is only one victor in the Ukraine conflict, and that is Russia. Nothing can change this reality. Renowned American intellectual John Mearsheimer has written an important article about the conflict, entitled: ‘Playing with Fire in Ukraine: The Underappreciated Risks of Catastrophic Escalation’. The article paints a dark picture about both the nature of the war in Ukraine (prolonged stalemate) and probable outcome (decisive escalation by the parties involved to stave off defeat). Mearsheimer’s underpinning premises, however, are fundamentally flawed. Russia possesses the strategic initiative – militarily, politically, and economically – when it comes to the war in Ukraine and the larger proxy engagement with NATO. Moreover, neither the US nor NATO is in a position to escalate, decisively or otherwise, to thwart a Russian victory, and Russia has no need for any similar escalation on its part. In short, the Ukraine conflict is over, and Russia has won. All that remains is a long and bloody mopping up.
But this is the fact, which Mearsheimer doesn't get. He doesn't get it for two reasons:
1. Despite his initial military background, Mearsheimer spent too much time dealing with political science at the expense of serious geopolitical analysis based on facts, not chimeras.
2. In terms of knowledge of modern warfare he is still stuck in 1970s and, as it is obvious with most US "experts", drinks the Kool Aid of the Desert Storm, not understanding that to be in shape geopolitically, one needs to constantly keep oneself updated on warfare matters, and especially in terms of C4ISR. It is, after all, 2022, not 1975 or even 1992.
Not only Ritter, correctly, demolished Mearsheimer's "theory" of escalation, especially towards nuclear threshold, but he stresses:
The fact is, while US government officials may make bold statements about the need to inflict harm, via proxy, on the Russian military through the provision of billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to Ukraine, it is the US which has had defeat inflicted on it in terms of the ongoing losses of its Ukrainian proxy military and the destruction of the equipment provided in support. The US, like its NATO allies, has proven to be very good at making bold pronouncements about goals and intent, but very bad at putting them into practice. This is the state of American ‘ambitions’ vis-à-vis Ukraine today – all rhetoric, no meaningful action. Any fear of a US and/or NATO military intervention in Ukraine must be weighed against the reality that hot air does not generate cold steel; US politicians might be adept at filling the pages of a compliant mainstream media with impressive-sounding words, but neither the US military nor its NATO allies are able to generate the kind of meaningful military capability needed to effectively challenge Russia on the ground in Ukraine.
In general, it is an excellent take-down worthy of our attention and it is absolutely necessary to remind people who pass in the West for 'realists' that they better learn subject before offering their, largely incompetent, opinions on serious matters such as large scale combined arms operations and nuclear escalation. Otherwise, their alleged 'realism' looks awfully similar to neocon exceptionalism, which is a euphemism for residing in the alternative universe of the America's omnipotence, which in reality is long gone, if there ever was one. As Mike Krupa stated 10 days ago, Mearsheimer should concentrate on writing about America's Israeli Lobby--he is really good at that.
In related news, now hypersonic Kinzhal is carried not just by updated MiG-31K, but by a fully modernized and capable of delivering Kinzhal to launch point in fully automatic mode MiG-31I is what now is deployed to Kaliningrad Oblast. This modification, evidently, also has an anti-satellite capability (in Russian). Also, rumor has it, the land-based Zircon will be ready by the end of this year and will begin to arrive to first line units. In conclusion, about Russian Armed Forces expanding its personnel size--not just personnel, but billets, positions, and that means fully new personnel--it is all about:
1. Integrating already existing LDNR units into the Armed Forces of Russia;
2. The expansion of "techno" troops such as additional Air Defense, Missile Troops, Tanks, Navy etc.
3. It has nothing to do with Russia's losses in Ukraine. Because filling billets of servicemen killed is NOT the EXPANSION.
In this case, however, we are talking about cadre expansion, which will make already impressive Russian Armed Forces even stronger. We will have answers to some questions starting from August 30, when Vostok-2022 will begin. Chinese Army already has its troops in place (in Russian). So, here it is--your primer for the weekend.
Friday, August 26, 2022
Unless one is a prude (a euphemism for being a hypocrite), toilet jokes, in general, are funny. I am not going to elaborate on the psychological or cultural reasons for those jokes being funny, but low brow humor does have a massive following and whatever one says, I remember us watching the Naked Gun first time in 1980s and people were suffering from severe stomach pains during the episode of Frank Drebin (God Bless your soul, Leslie Nielsen) going to bathroom during the press-conference of LA authorities in preparation to Queen's visit.
... sent me Daniel Larison's piece at his blog Eunomia where he contemplates economic sanctions. He refers to The Economist piece titled: Are sanctions on Russia working? My friend correctly states and I quote him:"Sanctions are another example of the intellectual bankruptcy of the Western ruling elite. Like a child with a hammer in a room full of glasses and dishware. As you never cease to point out, almost no one in Western top circles has a well-trained mind. Way too many law and business degrees (or worse, in political voodoo science!), with very poor background in math, physics, chemistry and such. They do not understand the energy-material world -- thermodynamics and the importance of those 92 elements." And Larison's piece, while concluding correctly that:
The flaws of broad sanctions have been well-known for a long time, so it wasn’t as if it took imposing them on Russia to recognize their limitations and ineffectiveness. It was entirely foreseeable (and foreseen) that waging economic war on a country as large and powerful as Russia would have adverse consequences for the senders of the sanctions and for the entire world. We know from experience that targets of the harshest sanctions regimes also tend to be the most intransigent, and broad sanctions often backfire and produce more of what they are supposed to discourage. We also know that sanctions usually do not really “work” at all in the sense of changing the target’s behavior in the way that the senders want it to change. Given all that, it should not come as news that the “sanctions weapons has flaws.” The question should be why we continue to use a weapon as blunt and crude as sanctions at all.
Is misplaced and, in fact, is somewhat misleading, because Larison's statement 'It was entirely foreseeable (and foreseen) that waging economic war on a country as large and powerful as Russia would have adverse consequences for the senders of the sanctions and for the entire world', is utterly false. Foreseen by who? If Larison has a short memory, for all my respect for his generally humanist aspirations, facts testify to exactly opposite. The whole Ukrainian "strategy" of the United States and EU since 2013 was and is based on a complete miscalculation and inability to recognize either the scale or power of Russia be that in economic or military terms. The Economist, as well as most of Western publications related to "economic" affairs (Forbes, WSJ et all) have been consistently wrong on "foreseeing" anything and, in fact, played a crucial role in creating an alternative universe narrative on economy of Russia and impact of sanctions.
As Russians say today, when responding to the question of if economic sanctions work, 'yes, they do--as a boomerang'. But the best example of a systemic failure of Western economic, military, intel or media institutions to "foresee" anything is his very own (I guess he is employed there) Quincy Institute for (allegedly) Responsible Statecraft. Materials published in it re: SMO are the Exhibit A of a complete detachment from the military and economic realities of Russia. If a complete sophomoric delirium about SMO provided there by such "scholars" as Anatol Lieven is understandable, the position of a former cadre officer of the US Army Colonel Andrew Bacevich hardly differs from propaganda being spewed by other US military "experts" such as generals Petraeus or Keane. And that brings us to my position of the last decade at least--the West has a systemic cognitive problem, which, in the end, is a problem of competencies and professionalism. In foreign policy the United States is utterly incompetent because, and I quote Larison himself:
Unfortunately, the U.S. is remarkably bad at understanding these things accurately. This is not just a Trump administration failing. Most American politicians and policymakers routinely misjudge the intentions and goals of our adversaries, and they often invent a fantasy version of the regime in question that leads them astray again and again. One reason for this is that it is simply easier to project our assumptions about what a regime must want than it is to make the effort to see things as they do. Another reason is that many of our politicians and policymakers mistakenly think that if they try to understand an adversary’s views that must somehow mean that they sympathize with the adversary or condone its behavior. Instead of trying to know their enemy, our leaders would prefer not to for fear of being “tainted” by the experience. This lack of knowledge is compounded in some cases by the absence of normal diplomatic relations with the adversary. Our leaders are encouraged to take this self-defeating approach to international problems by a political culture that rewards the people that strike tough-sounding-but-ignorant poses about a problem and marginalizes those that seek to understand it as fully as possible.
And as Larison's "own" Responsible Statecraft outlet exhibits consistently, not only the US is "remarkably bad" in understanding its "adversaries", but truth is--often doesn't know basic facts of real economy, modern warfare, history and diplomacy, but most remarkably, fails to understand its own status, scale and position vis-a-vis the world outside. This huge issue cannot be rectified by mere "rethinking", US machine in producing real statesmen is broken completely and requires a complete removal. It failed miserably to react and adapt to tectonic shifts of modern world and exceptions in "foreseeing" things merely confirm the rule of modern American "elites" being a failure across the board. But then again, what did one expect with "scholars" like Lieven.
In related sanctions matters, however, this is funny:
Russia is flaring natural gas at the Portovaya plant near the Finnish border while drastically cutting gas flows via the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany, a Rystad Energy analysis shared with BBC News showed on Friday. The plant northwest of St. Petersburg is flaring an estimated around $10 million worth of natural gas per day—gas that would have gone to Germany otherwise.
Aw, poor-poor dears, they cannot sleep knowing that Russia can afford to do so, because Russia is not going to supply her enemies who conduct proxy war against her, and the window is closing fast. This, not to mention the fact that Europe has been written off by Russia, is what really matters. The US is next, but only after some necessary arrangements.
UPDATE: Michael Hudson, after reading this piece sent to me (initially through Andrei Raevsky) this addendum:
I have a comment ....about ... column today saying that sanctions don’t work. I think that’s not the point when it comes to U.S. sanctions. Suppose a bully is seen beating up people. Someone tells him, “This won’t change that guy’s behavior.” The bully will reply: “I don’t care. I like to hit people. That’s my philosophy.” I think this is the spirit behind US sanctions.
I agree, it is a philosophy. Especially, as Hudson adds these comments sent to me:
After I wrote it, I thought of some more examples. Take torture. Every country (and religion) has its own signature mode of torture). It’s pretty much known that torture gets false confessions. But nations still do this. Iran under the Shah has a “hot plate,” tying victims to what was a big frying pan and turning on the heat. The US has water boarding. It was pointed out to me that one country was exceptional. Russia simply used sleep deprivation to break down resistance to giving information. Apparently the Americans found that this was simply no fun. It’s like air force generals who like to bomb, and find opportunities everywhere. I’ve known plenty of these guys – and when it comes to Russia, it’s really part of a psychodrama of anger and revenge.
Pay attention to the highlighted conclusion by one of the best economic minds of our generation. He gets it 100%. Remember this?