Tuesday, April 16, 2024

LOL)))

... )))) No comment. Talk about rubbing salt into the wounds...

Happy Divorce.

Many may not know this, but with Russia slowly withdrawing from ISS--with Angara A5 success the road to Russian orbital station is now wide open--NASA and Roscosmos actually agreed to maintain common standards on docking equipment for the foreseeable future in case US and Russia should act in orbital emergencies. That means one side will be able to aid another in case the evacuation will be needed. It is a sad reality but Washington did everything it could to demolish the last vestiges of US-Russian cooperation. 

Stuart, of Imperial College, said that the way the station is built enforces cooperation between nations that find little else to agree about. "Although strong words have been used on both sides since the conflict in Ukraine, in reality, the agencies involved in the station—as well as the hardware of the station itself—are interdependent in a way that has so far ensured a stable, if tense, continuation of operation," said Stuart. "Over the past decades of operation, other political tensions between the US and Russia have led to questions about the future of the ISS, but it has always weathered the storm," said Stuart. The future of the ISS, if Russia does act on its threats and withdraws, appears bleak. It would be difficult to get the ISS to even move without Russian help, said Virts. And transporting astronauts to the station would be more difficult, as under the ISS agreement, Russia flies international teams from its Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.

So, it is what it is and it is not going to be any different for a long time. Russia is breaking off most of the contacts with the West despite some moves of this nature:

Emmanuel Macron se rend mardi à Vassieux-en-Vercors, dans la Drôme, pour rendre hommage au maquis du Vercors, marqué par un massacre de civils pendant la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Cette visite intervient à l’occasion du 80ème anniversaire de la Libération. Une cérémonie internationale sera organisée en Normandie, le 6 juin prochain. La Russie sera bien invitée, mais pas son président Vladimir Poutine. Selon les informations d’Europe 1, la Russie sera bien représentée début juin en Normandie si toutefois Moscou accepte l’invitation de l’Élysée, et sauf coup de théâtre, le président russe Vladimir Poutine ne participera pas en personne aux commémorations mais une délégation russe y sera conviée. La Mission Libération chargée d'organiser cette commémoration a confirmé dans l'après-midi cette information, en précisant bien que le maître du Kremlin ne sera pas invité en raison de la "guerre d'agression" russe en Ukraine.

Translation:  Emmanuel Macron goes to Vassieux-en-Vercors, in Drôme, on Tuesday to pay tribute to the Vercors maquis, marked by a massacre of civilians during the Second World War. This visit takes place on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the Liberation. An international ceremony will be organized in Normandy on June 6. Russia will be invited, but not its president Vladimir Putin. According to information from Europe 1, Russia will be well represented at the beginning of June in Normandy if, however, Moscow accepts the invitation from the Élysée, and barring a twist, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not participate in person in the commemorations but a delegation Russian will be invited. The Liberation Mission responsible for organizing this commemoration confirmed this information in the afternoon, specifying that the master of the Kremlin will not be invited due to the Russian "war of aggression" in Ukraine.

French really need a lesson in history--USSR in WW II was fighting against Nazism; present day France, UK and USA support Nazism of 404 variety. The only reason Russian delegation may materialize in Normandy is to pay respect to Allied soldiers and officers who fought against the same enemy. Present Western elites are supporters of Nazism and terrorism and are clear and present enemies of Russian people. IF Moscow accepts. Plus, the invitation is not from officials in the West, it is from organizers of the event. 

Meanwhile:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has spoken with his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, following Tehran’s drone and missile attack on Israel, the Kremlin has said. Iran launched scores of drones and missiles against Israel on Saturday, as “punishment” for the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria that killed seven high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force officers at the beginning of the month. Raisi phoned Putin on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the “aggravated situation” in the region and the “retaliatory measures” taken by Tehran, according to the readout of the call. Putin “expressed hope that all parties will show reasonable restraint and will not allow a new round of confrontation, fraught with catastrophic consequences for the entire region,” the Kremlin said. Raisi “noted that Iran’s actions were forced and limited in nature,” adding that Tehran was “not interested in further escalation of tensions.” Both presidents agreed that the root cause of the current conflict is the unresolved Palestinian-Israeli conflict, calling for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza, deliveries of humanitarian aid, and the creation of conditions for a political and diplomatic settlement.

Israel now lives in a different world since Saturday and faster Tel-Aviv wakes up to the reality the better chances it may have for survival in some form. Judging by a strong showing of Hasbara on each and every available public platforms, Iran did hurt Israel where it mattered and demonstrated what has been known for a while--US-made AD/ABM systems such as their Israeli knockoffs do not work in real war against technologically advanced opponent. Iran, evidently, also tested some new cruise missiles which did penetrate Israeli AD. In coming days and months we will find out more about that fateful night. 

In related news, legendary Commander of Akhmat Brigade (then the corps commander) Major-General Apti Alautdinov was appointed First Deputy of the Commander of Main Political Directorate of Russian Armed Forces. This is big and, highly likely, opens a wide path for Alautdinov towards huge political career in highest echelons of power in Russia. Alautdinov commands a profound professional respect in Russian Armed Forces and universal admiration and respect among overwhelming majority of Russians. Congratulations to Apti Aronovich Alautdinov--a great son of Chechen people and Russia. So, this is your brief SitRep for this Tuesday.

Monday, April 15, 2024

About "Technicalities"...

 ... which are defining. They also explain behavior of Israel and US. 


 

The Number Grows...

 ... as was totally expected. One can spin things only to a certain extent, after that it becomes risible. 

Of course, Israel keeps mum on the fate of Golan Heights installation. But my video explaining some extremely important technical issues behind those nine which penetrated (in reality the number is larger) Israeli (which is not really that Israeli) AD and why Israel military top is shaking will be up soon. It is as much the American failure as it is Israeli one.

 

Sunday, April 14, 2024

Starting At 10 Minutes...

 ... in the video Larry Wilkerson starts to talk what I write and speak non-stop about for the last 10+ years: US doesn't know what real war is. 

A very few American military and intel people who grasp the severity of America's unpreparedness for real war of the XXI century and a military catastrophe which will befall ANY combination of the US forces and its lapdogs from Europe if they decide to fight one, only now begin to make some dent in illiterate and, frankly, amateurish thinking of military-political top in the US. 

Totally agree with Scott on his conclusion on Iran strikes:

The “Missiles of April” represent a sea-change moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics—the establishment of Iranian deterrence that impacts both Israel and the United States. While emotions in Tel Aviv, especially among the more radical conservatives of the Israeli government, run high, and the threat of an Israeli retaliation against Iran cannot be completely discounted, the fact is the underlying policy objective of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the course of the past 30-plus years, namely to drag the US into a war with Iran, has been put into checkmate by Iran. Moreover, Iran has been able to accomplish this without either disrupting its strategic pivot to the east or undermining the cause of Palestinian statehood. “Operation True Promise,” as Iran named its retaliatory attack on Israel, will go down in history as one of the most important military victories in the history of modern Iran, keeping in mind that war is but an extension of politics by other means. The fact that Iran has established a credible deterrence posture without disrupting major policy goals and objectives is the very definition of victory.

Very well put. 

Ah, The Spin...

 ... Israel spins the number of shot down slow subsonic drones, WOW! That's what their Iron Dome is designed for--to catch either very slow drones or slow easily calculable ballistic trajectory Katyusha rockets. What must not be overlooked is the fact of extremely well documented penetration of the vaunted, a euphemism for grossly embellished, Israeli AD by modern ballistic and, as Iran reports, hypersonic missiles. This was the main strike weapon and it did its job. What job, you may ask. Simple--symbolic punishment of Israel and it did succeed. Big time. Iran has demonstrated that in case of real war it can turn Israel into parking lot and no Israeli or any other NATO air defense will be able to do anything about it. 

So, who is the loser in all that? Easy--Erdogan who could have been the leader of the Islamic world in dealing with Israel by shutting down Turkish supplies of oil, fuels and other war materiel to Israel involved in unprecedented genocide of Gaza civilians. He failed, now it is Iran which, yet again, stood up to Israeli-American lobby, as it did when hot air balloon Trump gave order on killing General Soleimani, and the eyes of the Islamic world, including this ever important Arab street are now on Tehran, not Ankara. Erdogan has only himself to blame. The consequences, strategic ramifications of this strike will have, already having, a long lasting effect. E.g. 

Израиль не осуждал атаки киевского режима по территории России, ответила официальный представитель МИД России Мария Захарова в ответ на призыв посла Израиля в Москве Симоны Гальперин осудить атаку Ирана. Захарова обратилась в своем Telegram-канале к Гальперин с вопросом о том, когда Израиль осудил хотя бы один удар киевского режима по российским регионам. Она также отметила, что не помнит таких заявлений, но помнит регулярные заявления в поддержку действий президента Украины Владимира Зеленского со стороны израильских официальных лиц. Ранее Гальперин заявила, что Израиль ожидает, что Россия осудит массированный ракетный удар Ирана по Израилю.

Translation: Israel did not condemn the Kyiv regime’s attacks on Russian territory, said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova in response to a call from Israeli Ambassador to Moscow Simone Halperin to condemn Iran’s attack. Zakharova addressed Galperin in her Telegram channel with a question about when Israel condemned at least one strike by the Kyiv regime on Russian regions. She also noted that she does not remember such statements, but remembers regular statements in support of the actions of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky from Israeli officials. Earlier, Halperin said that Israel expects Russia to condemn Iran's massive missile attack on Israel.

Ouch! Chutzpah you say? Doesn't fly with Russia. As for speculations of what it all means--I will make video tomorrow and explain also why the new Middle East was born yesterday. Now let Israel and US propaganda BS, that's the only thing militarily they can do. 

Saturday, April 13, 2024

Larry and Ray On The Issue...

 ... looks like I will be doing video tomorrow too...

Also, Ray doing what Ray does--keeping the faith in American patriots... 
Whatever Israel does now, including the use of nukes--1.5 billion of Muslims look up to Iran. Erdogan lost... In geopolitics timing is everything.

And Now They Fly...

... I am talking about Iranian ballistic missiles. Bunch of agencies report that. Will know in 10 minutes.

Happy Birthday, Bonesy.

 My latest. 


 

On Iran...

 ... it is only natural to defer to Larry on this issue due to his extensive intel background and connections. So, as Larry pointed out yesterday--West is in panic mode. There is, evidently, a hacker attack on Israel's networks. Some in US Administration say the strike will happen early morning the 14th. Maybe. Israel is in anticipation mode. Sometimes wait is worse than the action itself. Iranians are keenly aware of that. They may even play mindfuckery with Israel. Now, the rumor has it, not confirmed yet, that 100 French soldiers arrived to Slavyansk, to "help" with its defense. LOL. Poor sods, did they leave last will and testament for their relatives in France? Most of them are not coming back. In coffins, maybe. Will see. My new video should be ready in about an hour. Standby. Bonesy, Happy Birthday, my friend. I also wish the same to you in video.  

 

Friday, April 12, 2024

Larry Provides...

 ... an excellent summary of Israel's, and the US, defeat and possible retaliation by Iran. 

Joe Biden has sent the head of U.S. Central Command to Israel to coordinate defenses and possible responses to an Iranian attack. But the ability of the U.S. and Israel to respond with an air campaign has hit some roadblocks:

All of this is taking place against a growing realization in Tel Aviv and Washington that their respective tactics for dealing with Hamas and the Houthis respectively have been a debacle. Israeli columnist, Chaim Levinson, dropped this bomb in the pages of Haaretz — Saying What Can’t Be Said: Israel Has Been Defeated – a Total Defeat.

Read the whole thing at Larry's blog. Everyday continues to be a wowser...

Herbie Is 84 Today...

 ... and Valeriy Stepanov marks maestro's BD with rethinking Hancock's Sly from 1973. It is mind-boggling. Hey, Friday...

What a lovely coincidence, Hancock's BD and Day of cosmonautics, with Valeriy playing a cosmic version of Sly.

More About Angara A5...

In this Day of Cosmonautics. 

Sure, it is not April 12, 1961 when Yuri Gagarin trail blazed humanity into space, but Angara A5's success is important nonetheless--Angara A5 is a heavy class rocket which can throw 24.5 tons payloads at LEO (Low Earth Orbit), up to 32 tons with KVTK, and 5.5 tons to a GTO  (Geostationary Transfer Orbit). That's a lot but this is just a stepping stone towards super-heavy Yenisei and Don which will be able to deliver 140 tons to LEO. So, do you sense gigantic ramifications of all that? Well, here is example from today:

МОСКВА, 11 апр - РИА Новости. Президент России Владимир Путин поручил кабмину с "Роскосмосом" и "Росатомом" принять решения о выделении с 2024 года средств на проект по развитию космической ядерной энергетики. Средства должны быть выделены в рамках федерального проекта "Развитие космической ядерной энергетики России". Особое внимание следует уделить развитию разработок в сфере космической ядерной энергетики. Доклад необходимо представить до 15 июня, ответственный — премьер-министр Михаил Мишустин.

Translation: MOSCOW, April 11 - RIA Novosti. Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Cabinet of Ministers with Roscosmos and Rosatom to make decisions on allocating funds for a project to develop space nuclear energy starting in 2024. The funds should be allocated within the framework of the federal project “Development of Space Nuclear Energy in Russia.” Particular attention should be paid to the development of developments in the field of space nuclear energy. The report must be submitted by June 15, and the responsible party is Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

You see, Angara A5 is more than just new Russian space station, it is a nuclear powered vehicles such as Zevs (Zeus) which will take humanity to Mars and beyond. Now, that Russia has a heavy vehicle independent from launch-sites in Kazakhstan things will (already) accelerate dramatically. That is why Angara A5's success is so important, to put it mildly--it pushes a whole of Russia's space program into high gear. I hope everybody understand also military applications of all that. Angara is capable to deliver a large number of satellites to orbit in one go. Speaking of which, evidently Russia tested another military vehicle today using mobile intercontinental missile complex from the range at Kapustin Yar (in Russian). Some new iterations of Avangard, I guess. You didn't think that Russia would confine Avangards and their versions to silo-based missiles complexes only, right?

Thursday, April 11, 2024

Angara V Flies...

 ... and why it is extremely important globally. 


 

This Is Idiocracy...

 ... on full display. Yes, we all know that climate change creates solar eclipses/s. 

Complete degenerates... But Hostin--she is in the league of her own. I guess she could be the next Vice-President. US legacy media are trash.

Nima And Me...

 ... yesterday. 


 

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

Anatol Lieven Continues To Parade...

... himself as nincompoop who he is, together with the co-author of this drivel, who, unlike Lieven, has at least some intel background. As I am constantly on record--it is IN THE clockwork of West's "academe" that denies them even remotely contextual view of the world around them, exacerbated with a deep seated belief in some military-economic capabilities of the United States which are not there and, in actuality, never has been. So, Soros-financed Quincy Institute publishes a paper on SMO. 

It is also extremely dangerous for Ukraine’s future. The war is not trending toward a stable stalemate, but toward Ukraine’s eventual collapse.  Russia has corrected many of the problems that plagued its forces during the first year of fighting and adopted an attrition strategy that is gradually exhausting Ukraine’s forces, draining American military stocks, and sapping the West’s political resolve. Sanctions have not crippled Russia’s war effort, and the West cannot fix Ukraine’s acute manpower problems absent direct intervention in the war.  Ukraine’s best hope lies in a negotiated settlement that protects its security, minimizes the risks of renewed attacks or escalation, and promotes broader stability in Europe and the world.   

Skeptics counter that Russia has no incentive to make meaningful concessions in a war it is increasingly winning.  But this belief underestimates the gap between what Russia can accomplish through its own military efforts and what it needs to ensure its broader security and economic prosperity over the longer term.  Russia can probably achieve some of its war aims by force, including blocking Ukraine’s membership in NATO and capturing much of the territory it regards as historically and culturally Russian.  But Russia cannot conquer, let alone govern, the majority of Ukraine, nor can Russia secure itself against the ongoing threats of Ukrainian sabotage or potential NATO strikes absent a costly permanent military buildup that would undermine its civilian economy. Reducing the deep dependence on China created by the invasion will also sooner or later require Russia to seek some form of détente with the West.  As a result, the United States has significant leverage for bringing Russia to the table and forging verifiable agreements to end the fighting.

This is an Exhibit A of, in the words of Orwell, "holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them". This is expected from Lieven who has zero understanding of military and warfare.

1. If, as authors correctly state, war is trending towards Ukraine's eventual collapse, one must ask a question: what is Ukraine for the United States? We have an answer--Ukraine, and the whole NATO-Ukraine project, is the best proxy the United States ever had. So, the formal logic goes (I omit here operational-strategic issues which Lieven will not understand)... Ah, wait. Remember South Vietnam? Correct--US proxy. Remember Afghanistan and the fate of the US proxies there? Well, here comes summary on fingers for people like Lieven and whoever gives tribune to this pseudo-academic shyster: combined all American proxies, multiply them by 10 and even their aggregate defeats will not have an impact equaling US and NATO defeat in 404 in its scope and consequences. The US and combined West are distinct losers. 

2. In this case one has to ask the question: what is this "significant leverage" the United States allegedly has? Correct--none exists, because for Russia it is not about 404, it is about combined West headed by the United States, who, as is the consensus among most real military professionals in the US, are distinct losers in this war. Losers DO NOT dictate conditions or leverage whatever they think they have. They are being dictated what and how to do, of which Russia issued a good plan in December of 2021. 

3. As per "Ukrainian sabotage or potential NATO strikes"--this is a kindergarten level "analysis" by people who obviously do not understand the upcoming end of NATO and that the only "sabotage" which will be happening after the 404 is partitioned the way Russia dictates will be not "sabotage" but pure terrorism financed by people from CIA, MI6 et al. That will be met with appropriate responses. 

4. China: as I already stated--it is difficult to explain to an amateur what COFM is and that the United States lost the arms race to Russia, but NOT to China. China knows it, Lieven and Beebe, evidently do not. Expected, especially for people who do not understand still a huge relevance of the US Navy's submarine forces, for all their increasing issues, in possible war with China, as well as US attempts--they will succeed--to coral Japan and South Korea into this possible fight. China knows that she depends on Russia, not the other way around. But then again--this requires a real knowledge of Russia, real economy, COFM and understanding an intellectual abyss which separates Russian and Chinese diplomats and strategists from their current US counter-parts, many of who do not even have a proper military education. 

I plan to talk about this Russia-China mythology and deteriorating mental state, as this piece demonstrates, of US "realists" many of who still reside in La-La-Land of American exceptionalism and continue to self-medicate themselves with all kind of ignorant bullshit with matters they have no clue about. But by that time they recognize their delusions, we may have on our hands a very real physical disintegration of the United States, which faces a possibility of a very real civil war and departure from the world stage as one of three superpowers. And no, it will not be Russia who will seek detente with the West. Not with this crop of "elites" who are not only non-agreement capable but are ignorant and, in general, people you don't deal with. Lieven should ask to give some lectures about "democracy" say in Higher School of Economics in Moscow--a cesspool of pro-Western liberals, they buy pretty much any BS from the West, for the rest--Russia has plenty of own demagogues. Get in line...

Open Thread...

I am cooking today.

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

Finally!

The truth has been revealed. 

There is also no "stalemate". There never was.
 

French General Needs...

... basic lessons on nuclear deterrence. And balance of forces. And CEP--this is how counter-force doctrine emerged. 


 

Ania And Me...

 ... today. 


 

Larry At Judge's Program.

Hitting a nail on the head.


 

Anyone Is Surprised?

I am not. And the revelation mode has been only in its initial stages. 

Criminal probes into the financing of terrorist activities in Russia and abroad have been launched against several private companies, the country’s Investigative Committee announced on Tuesday. The list of suspects includes the Ukrainian industrial conglomerate Burisma Holdings, linked to a corruption scandal surrounding the Biden family that has been dragging on for years. The criminal investigation stems from a complaint filed by a group of Russian MPs and public figures in the aftermath of the deadly Crocus City Hall attack outside Moscow last month. The original complaint identified the US and its allies as allegedly organizing a string of attacks on Russian soil. So far, investigators have “established that the funds, flowing through commercial organizations, including the oil and gas conglomerate Burisma Holdings, operating in Ukraine, have been used in recent years to carry out terrorist attacks in Russia,” committee spokeswoman Svetlana Petrenko said. Terrorist activities have also reached beyond the country, aimed at the “elimination of prominent political and public figures, as well as causing economic damage,” she added.

The "pendulum" of justice only begins to swing and the amplitude will only increase. In layman's terms that means that many US citizens (and there are many of them involved with 404 "structures") will be charged with terrorism in absentia and they better start thinking about plastic surgeries and other ways of changing identity because Russia does not forgive terrorism and deals with those who sponsor or carry it out in a very distinct way. Here how it is formulated:

The committee’s specialists have been working “in cooperation with other intelligence services and financial intelligence,” Petrenko noted. The scrutiny currently revolves around “checking sources of income and further movement of funds in the amount of several million US dollars,” and examining the potential involvement of “specific individuals from among government officials, people with civic and commercial organizations of Western countries,” the spokeswoman stated.

In Russia there is such saying: to lose shores. Many Kool Aid drinkers from the West lost the sight of the reality and thought that they can finance terrorism in Russia nowadays and get away with it. Wrong assumption. But then again, they all have been wrong all the time in the last 10 years. Nowadays, Russia justifiably views the combined West as an existential threat and the time of cooperation is behind all of us. In the eyes of the law in Russia there is no difference between terrorist from ISIS, US or France. The fact that someone can finance a bloody murder of hundreds of innocent civilians from a fancy office or while being driven in limo as opposed from some cave in Afghanistan now makes no difference whatsoever. They will be hunted down and eliminated as a threat. 

To illustrate to what low the United States stoops nowadays, here is the piece of news:

МОСКВА, 9 апр — РИА Новости. Американские ЧВК начали вербовать членов мексиканских и колумбийских наркокартелей, отбывающих наказание в США, для участия в конфликте на Украине, сообщили в пресс-бюро Службы внешней разведки России. В ведомстве отметили, что Вашингтон все более отчаянно пытается переломить ситуацию на этом театре военных действий, пополняя ряды деморализованных солдат ВСУ "многонациональным сбродом, имеющим склонность к вооруженному насилию".
Translation: MOSCOW, April 9 – RIA Novosti. American PMCs began recruiting members of Mexican and Colombian drug cartels serving sentences in the United States to participate in the conflict in Ukraine, the press bureau of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reported. The department noted that Washington is increasingly desperate to turn the situation around in this theater of military operations, replenishing the ranks of demoralized Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers with a “multinational rabble with a penchant for armed violence.”

Correct, armed violence, real war? Not so much. Poor kids, I mean American PMCs, they now recruit militarily useless cannon fodder which may now see the real war for a very short time, before being killed. God forbids those amateurs, good only for killing civilians and shooting at each-other, encounter Russian storm-troopers from such formations as Slavyanka or Akhmat, among many others, not to speak of special battalions of Russian marines or paratroopers--they will shit their pants. Evidently American PMCs don't want to fight them. Of course, these are not peasants from Afghanistan or Iraqi militias, this is a whole other level, if not universe, of warfare and American PMCs are good only for attacking defenseless civilians--such as a bunch of thugs from the US trying to assault a village in Belgorod Oblast. So, the stage is being set. 
 
Here is Colonel Jacques Baud and Nima talking about real war. 
Enjoy!

Monday, April 8, 2024

Garland And George...

 ... good term "debt laundering". 


 

How Real War Looks Like...

 ... against the superpower. This is not Iraq or Afghanistan. This is everywhere there. I would love to send editorial boards of NYT, WaPo, WSJ and Financial Times there, on Ukrainian side, to those positions. Many from State Department should also do it--let them experience real war for about a day, give and take, and then send those few who survived back to face war crimes tribunal.

 

Dawning Realization.

Mike Krupa sent me this interesting document: from Polish American Strategic Initiative. The title of document is: Open Letter against Poland’s military engagement in Ukraine. Here is almost full letter:

Many within the Polish American community strongly believe that NATO should remain a defense alliance and not an instrument of unrestrained geopolitical ambitions of its most dominant members. Poland must not allow itself to be drawn or forced into military engagement(s) outside of Polish borders unless attacked. The trajectory of future developments is not easy to predict nor is it predetermined. However, it is a given that the future political and military decisions of the Russian Federation will depend on the actions of its adversaries. Escalatory behaviors will be predictably met with escalatory reactions. Russia’s conviction of facing an existential threat and its clearly signaled determination to use all its capabilities in the conflict need to be seriously considered before any escalatory steps are taken.

The consequences of conflict escalation advocated by some European leaders might lead to highly tragic outcomes in Poland and globally. We urge Polish politicians to refrain from offensive rhetorical excesses and empty threats, which regrettably indicate an inability to realistically assess Poland’s capabilities in a situation of actual military confrontation. Polish Americans stand ready to support and assist President Duda and Prime Minister Tusk as they work together to strengthen and maintain Poland’s deterrence capabilities but remain adamantly opposed to engaging Poland deeper in a war that cannot be won, and which would ultimately lead to the destruction of Poland. We appeal to Poland’s leaders to align with those European leaders who call for a peaceful resolution of the war.

Reasonable and wise letter, I would say. Comes with another peculiar document of some people in UK realizing that:

Correct. They call for effectively disbanding Foreign Office, which lives in La-La Land of British "greatness", and reconstituting it anew. They also call for UK concentrating more on multilateralism in dealing with same middle-sized powers like Japan. They still, however, use the same fictitious economic metrics, like nominal GDP, and that completely discredits--expected from British "scientists"--any further analysis. But... but, at least they concede--UK is not Premier League, she is at best a Championship, at worst--the league lower than Championship. But, hey, progress is progress, right? I will reiterate--there are only three superpowers in the world: USA, China and Russia. India ascending, but still has a long way to go. The dynamics within these three is pretty obvious. US is abdicating, Russia and China are ascending. A lot will be revealed at November 2024. If Democrats win--the US will be over, no matter the political dynamics, because the US is bankrupt now and today. The only difference if she disintegrates fully or will make a relatively soft landing, with as little bloodshed as possible, amidst final preparations for US Dollar's funeral.   

Saturday, April 6, 2024

Some Good Humor...

Very good in its direct style. Paige Spiranac is one of the most stunningly beautiful young women in the world, but now she became a geopolitical meme)).

This is really good: Damn Russians use secrecy as a weapon... Oh, no!

It's understandable that the Ukrainians and their Western bosses are upset: last year every week they publicly announced what they were going to do: attack in the direction of Crimea to cut the Russian troops in two slices, recover Artemivsk (Bakhmut), occupy the other side of Dnieper close to Kherson. It was honest information, not a trap, they really tried to do everything they said. The Russians could have reciprocated, they think by being so kind eto inform them of their intentions. But no, they're mean, they keep their mouths shut. It's like war is a secret business. Oh wait, wait, wars, before the Ukrainian originality, war indeed have always been a secret business. In the past, they didn't warn Napoleon's armies that they were planning to burn down Moscow: they let them advance on the great city without so much as a yellow alert. The orange and red alerts only flashed when Napoleon and his warriors were so close to the city that they could warm themselves in the flames. Later, they failed to warn the German high command that they would not abandon Leningrad or Stalingrad.  As a result, Goebbels' propaganda machine repeatedly announced the capture of the two cities while the fighting continued in the urban centre of both of them.All to make Goebbels go green of anger, of course. And to make him say: "This was it, this was it" just to recognise later: "There are still skirmishes, but well, at some point they'll give up". 

Read the whole thing. Interestingly, Bernhard also posted today in the same vein:

This is because average Western media personality not only has no integrity, due to most of them, top-bottom, being paid shills for the "current thing", but 99% of those "experts" are dumb as fuck. So it is an explosive mix of human venality and being professional ass-holes with professional and academic efficiency of the high-school paper level editor. Or, for that matter, equivalent of Al Bundy's famous "four touch downs". In high school football.

On A Lighter Note...

 ... meme. Good one))

Zakharova refuted information that her boss called Western journalists imbeciles. Nobody called these dumbfucks imbeciles, clarified Zakharova. 

Very true, I would say))

Meanwhile Roskosmos continues to publish the work of its satellites. Now it is latest Resurs-P. Dallas, TX. 


Just for shits and giggles. Make your own conclusions. Especially against the background of this really heavy blow. 

Пособниками и международными спонсорами террористов Медведев назвал «высших должностных лиц стран НАТО». Он счел, что риторика и действия президента Франции Эммануэля Макрона, а главное – его санкции на тайные операции с бандеровским режимом вполне могут быть расценены как пособничество в теракту в «Крокусе». «Очевидно, что Макрон и ряд других западных руководителей – спонсоры этого ужасного теракта. Этому нет прощения. Здесь не прикрыться иммунитетами. И отныне они не просто враги России», считает зампред Совбеза.

Translation: Medvedev called “senior officials of NATO countries” accomplices and international sponsors of terrorists. He considered that the rhetoric and actions of French President Emmanuel Macron, and most importantly, his sanctions for secret operations with the Bandera regime could well be regarded as complicity in the terrorist attack in Crocus. “It is obvious that Macron and a number of other Western leaders are the sponsors of this terrible terrorist attack. There is no forgiveness for this. There is no hiding behind immunities here. And from now on they are not just enemies of Russia,” says the deputy chairman of the Security Council.

Just think for a minute about what has been said. And that is not on a "lighter note". This is not good cop-bad cop play. There is a good chance that this is the future (again) President of Russia speaking. Think about why Lecornu called Shoigu. Also the hysterical reaction of Macron.

Thursday, April 4, 2024

The Mystery Has Been Solved...

 ... through Falichev's classmates from... drum roll... and as I suspected... most likely Lvov Political Academy, Journalism Department, 100%--Lenin's Political Academy. Here are some highly critical views of Falichev by other military journalist, his classmate, Colonel Andrusov. 

Успел за неделю до празднования столетнего юбилея газеты отпечатать 15 книг и   20 фотоприложений.  Немалую  часть изданной продукции  отправил Фаличеву почтой с доставкой на дом  –  в аккурат  к  торжественному собранию в Центральном доме Российской  Армии   1   декабря   2023   года.   Однако. . .  Однако,  от чванливого полковника    О. В.  Фаличева  поступило  сухое,  краткое сообщение:  «Книга пришла сегодня».   И  НИКАКИХ  БЛАГОДАРНОСТЕЙ !  Досадно  сознавать ещё  то,  что  Олег даже не  спросил,  в какую сумму обошлись мне полиграфические услуги.   Откровенно говоря, я впервые в жизни  столкнулся с  этаким пренебрежением и снобизмом.  Моя  благожелательность  не нашла  отклика  в душе  Фаличева.     Зёрна  доброты,   к  сожалению,    не   дали  всходов. . .  Комчванством,  манией величия в некоторой степени страдает и другой известный  московский полковник Анушкевич Борис Павлович. Давайте вдумаемся в следующую фразу:  «Витяй, привет!  Олег не будет предлагать государственным организациям свою книгу о 100-летии КЗ в переизданном тобой варианте. Резоны такие: солидная дата, боевое издание. героические люди и эпизоды, цитаты крупных военачальников, известных военкоров. А издана в формате детской литературы с неуместными подчёркиваниями. . .»

Translation: A week before the celebration of the newspaper's centenary, I managed to print 15 books and 20 photo supplements. A considerable part of the published products was sent to Falichev by mail with home delivery - just in time for the ceremonial meeting in the Central House of the Russian Army on December 1, 2023. However. . . However, a dry, brief message was received from the swaggering Colonel O.V. Falichev: “The book arrived today.” AND NO THANKS! It’s also annoying to realize that Oleg didn’t even ask how much the printing services cost me. Frankly speaking, for the first time in my life I encountered such disdain and snobbery. My benevolence did not find a response in Falichev’s soul. The seeds of kindness, unfortunately, did not germinate. . . Another famous Moscow colonel, Boris Pavlovich Anushkevich, also suffers from snobbery and delusions of grandeur to some extent. Let's think about the following phrase: “Vityay, hello! Oleg will not offer his book about the 100th anniversary of KZ (Red Star) to government organizations in the version republished by you. The reasons are: a solid date, a combat edition. heroic people and episodes, quotes from major military leaders, famous military officers. And it was published in the format of children's literature with inappropriate underlining. . ."

There you go--everything becomes very clear: they didn't teach in Lvov any serious military-engineering issues, especially in 1970s based around now utterly obsolete hardware and tactical and operational concepts. That is why Colonel Falichev, who later graduated Lenin's Military-Political Academy... the (newspaper) Editorial Faculty doesn't have even basic tool kit for grasping modern ISR and modern operations unless someone expressed their personal opinion to him. I read his couple of pieces in Svobodnaya Pressa tabloid--a tedious re-narration of US military media about space plans and a couple of military platitudes. He was in Chechnya as correspondent. SMO helped me to discard completely another graduate of this Lvov madras--Vladislav Shurygin who portrayed himself utterly incompetent in any serious issue of combat control and technology which provides for it. All of it, without exception, is, indeed, children illustrated book level stuff. SMO exposed so many frauds... Now everything becomes clear. And there is a reason I always go for a jugular in terms of education and background. That is why I never obscure mine... Now you understand why I posted the table of content and article summary from Military Thought--exactly, written by senior officers and one general all of who are Ph.Ds in technical and physics-mathematical sciences. Feel the difference...

The Likeness...

 ... between Nazi collaborator and traitor General Vlasov and VSU General Syrsky is surreal. Coincidence? Yes, but very telling. 


 

For Those Who Think...

 ... that I am writing only about Western military FUBARs in "analysis". Here is my piece (in Russian) from half-a-year ago: Svobodnaya Pressa In Free Fall. Use Google Translate: 

Свободная Пресса В Свободном Полёте. 

Just to demonstrate a very high sensitivity levels of my BS-meter. I do make mistakes, for sure, but when I do not understand something--I study it and only then I express, cautiously, my opinion. Here is one of many examples.

 

I Didn't Want To Do It...

... but a bunch of fanboys write about alleged "response" to me by this Simplicius guy. Comments appear in this blog under my video etc.  So, let me demonstrate to you how to obfuscate this issue:

1. Recall my constant requests since ISR "piece" by this S guy (in reality compilation of headlines), I even did my own research, trying to answer simple question: WHO IS Colonel Falichev, no serious data? Guess what, this is response from the S guy:

And then he proceeds to "answer" whatever BUT the question of WHO Colonel Falichev is.  He certainly goes into copious amount of "elaborations", including, for some reason, posting biographies of the Editorial Boards of Army Digest and Military Thought (the latter one featuring prominently in my latest book's bibliography), remarkably, with all those board members having their bios known, their academic backgrounds and service being public, Mr. S still doesn't answer the question I posited from the get go: WHO Colonel Falichev is. I later elaborated--WHAT, namely military academy, did he graduate from, which will constitute his VUS (Military Registration Specialty). No answer, but Falichev bio matters a great deal. Yet, Mr. S speculates:

In this case, for instance, the takedown of Falichev could imply that I don’t use good sources in my research—but you can clearly see the contrary is the case. Not only is the Russian Army journal I used a top source, its own Editor-in-Chief has an unassailably storied career, having graduated from three different top command schools:    

You see how it is done? "Implied", I do not imply anything:

2. ... I specifically ask a simple question of military-academic background of Colonel Falichev, which determines if he has professional engineering background to pass his opinions on the issue of ISR in general and netcentric operations in particular or is he merely a military journalist with anecdotal (and rumor collection) "knowledge" of the issue. If Falichev has engineering command VUS, has experience serving as officer-operator of TsAMO (General Staff) or operational level staff officer among many other things, then his opinion is worth something. If he is not, then he merely provided a compilation of "facts" based on somebody's opinions which can differ dramatically on many issues, including what is known as "smoking room bashing" by officers. That's what professional military magazines exist for--to publish all kinds of views.

3. Then comes this issue of ISR and netcentricity in which there are satellites and there are Satellites. Starlink is called such because it is primarily communications constellation whose main purpose is to provide broad band data-links. It can provide some valuable sign-int but that's about it. The main threat for Russian Armed Forces in the field (and the sea) are the so called "spy satellites" which provide the "view" of the battlefield in optical and electromagnetic diapasons and this is primarily anchored to air assets such as E-Sentry, P-8 Poseidon, RC-135, drones and other aircraft. If Falichev doesn't understand that ALL of them fly in the international air space near Russia's borders (especially Crimea) and CAN NOT be shot down without escalating the conflict to the WW III levels, I don't know then why he begins to talk about two different ISR systems operating under completely different sets of circumstances, with NATO ISR having a gigantic advantage operating behind the wall of International Laws and Conventions regulating air and space activity in peace time. Does Falichev know the effects of RUK/ROKs in SMO zone? Does he understand what "R" stands there for? 

And here is the main issue, again, can somebody finally tell me who Colonel Falichev is? Having his full article would help too, I cannot access Army Digest, I have access to Military Thought, though. For those who want to read up of Netcentricity, at some time Lt. Colonel Kondratiev wrote extensively on that. Now, here is how I explain (for laymen) what Sensor/Data Fusion is which is in the foundation of modern ISR in 2019. 

Here I post some pages--the introductory level explanation of NCW and Fusion. 




Why the area in the lake in which the boat can possibly be located becomes not quadrangle but ellipse--that's the whole science of probabilistic analysis and based on sensor fusion and it is some damn serious math (algorithms) which are operating at the back end of network.  Here is a very basic representation:
If you want to see some math behind it, here is some interactive Kalman Filter. These are very basic things required (imperative) for understanding of modern ISR. But the question remains: WHO is Colonel Falichev because he should understand the unprecedented scale of netcentric operations Russian Armed Forces conduct in 404 and conduct extremely successfully granted with some hiccups, but this is a normal process. 

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

I Was Writing About...

... Russia being an ark for years and... here we are. Somebody illustrated it. 

What do you know...

I Am Completely Done With Writing...

 ... now I am just waiting for final edit from the chief editor and then the book goes off to printing with blurbs from some people I know. There is a lot in the book which many of you already know or have been subjected to in my previous three books. Meanwhile, I am pouring myself some Jack (so unusual to feel the pressure of writing lifted off my shoulders) and getting into the magical world of Ayreon. 

Nice title, right? Great music and great lyrics...

Arjen as always is bombastic and mystic. The music is great and harks back to a masterpiece of The Final Experiment. Obviously, those who never heard Russian prog band Little Tragedies with their mind-boggling New Faust may not recognize the mental thrust--all this is in the same vein--a recognition of a tectonic scale change of the world. Played by music virtuosos, for the rest--there is always Taylor Swift. 

My Latest...

 ... SitRep. 


 

Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Can Anybody Explain...

 ... this shit? Why? Three Ukie Bradleys "attack", as a result--one is blown up to smithereens by Russian artillery, another one blows up on mine and the last one runs away.  This is an absolute madness--let's attack Russians who have total situational and tactical awareness. Maybe we get lucky... Oh, shit, we will not. In related news, drugs use is a normal occurrence in what's left of VSU. This thing, however, explains perfectly why Russians do not commit to large arrow offensives yet. Why? When your enemy impales willingly on your spear with no harm to you. Just keep it coming...

With Genuine Respect For Laymen...

... and this is in some sense a repetition (or reiteration) of what I am writing about for years and what happens when the issue is being obfuscated without proper understanding of the issue. I am talking about writing of some Simplicius guy (whoever he or they are) about some "revelations" on the issue by some colonel Falichev whose real biography, except that he was an editor of a number of military publications, is completely absent, except that he was a military journalist and was in some hot spots. The whole writing discusses what basically amounts to comparison of satellite constellations of Russia and the US (NATO) with obvious advantage to the US in, and I underscore it, NON-war conditions and discussion of the tactical front end of what amounts to a battlefield management system also known in Russia as ASU--Автоматические Системы Управления--also known as BIUS (Боевые Информационные Управляющие Системы), aka CICS (Combat Information Control Systems). Oh, look, someone on the tactical level introduced "symbol"  on some pad and it went out--cool, netcentric warfare. Well, not so fast and I have good friends, former senior officers who graduated both military officer college of communications and then famous Academy of Communications (Signal Corps) (2 year war college) of Budyonny. Has a shitload of combat awards and some serious wounds. We discussed these things. 

And here is where despicable me comes in and says that it is all fine and dandy: satellites, CICS and netcentricity, but as practice of Russian RUK/ROK in SMO has demonstrated, including the reduction in reaction time from 7 minutes to less than 1 minute it is Russia who teaches the United States with all of her satellite constellations and hare-brain schemes of C4ISR what real netcentricity is and how it is applied in REAL operations of scale, also how it evolves. And here comes this, o-o-o-o-h, secretive secret of warfare (not really, but you have to have serious military background to know it and I wrote a book about it)--ISR exists for... drum roll--RESOLUTION of UNCERTAINTIES, and without understanding what it is, which is probabilistic matter, which is a measure of uncertainty, all these talks about satellites and pads are meaningless because what matters is what happens in the back-end of all those symbols, pads and targeting. Here is one of the pages with partial table of content of February 2024 issue of Voennaya Mysl' (Military Thought):

As you can see yourself it all is highly mathematical. Just to give you example of the background, apparatus behind C3 and how it relates to networks, that article from the same issue:
 
So, four Ph.Ds in technical and physics-mathematics sciences, all four cadre senior officers, one of them general, write about all those Graph Theory, networks, constrains et al. These are the solutions which bring about proper technology through realization of the concepts. Here is another example, directly related to Bayesian and Kalman Filters which are critical in such things as targeting, guidance, netcentric operations and other military applications:

Everything in the modern war is about resolving of uncertainties and this is what is studied in serious military academies, not how to push buttons. And while at it, I want to reiterate, if you look at the "core" of modern C2 and netcentric operations it is all about, and I reiterate, what, what kind of info you feed into the data links and how this information is processed and uncertainties resolved. After that comes data/sensor fusion. Boy, that shit is funny. Here is US Navy explaining it on fingers:

Often, multiple sensors may be looking at the same contact—radars on different manned and unmanned surface vehicles in a group, for example, or different types of sensors, such as radar and SIGINT, on the same platform. In the next phase—sensor- data fusion—the AI brings together and evaluates all the relevant data streams, to produce a more comprehensive score for the commander. Sensor-data fusion assigns weights to each of the data streams, largely based on the quality of its data. There are a number of reasons why sensor data quality can vary. For example, one sensor might generate a lower resolution than others, based on its location. Or, the sensor might be older, and have a lower sensitivity than newer versions. Some sensors—such as those on unmanned vehicles—may have smaller optics than large, complex sensors, and so might generate less robust results. Once the AI assigns weights to the different data streams—based on their strengths and weakness—it fuses the results, refining the overarching confidence score.

Ah yes, weighted data, data streams, probabilistic analysis--yep, that is what military staffs used to do--fusing data from sensors for developing tactical and operational decisions. Today computers help to do so within combat networks. Of course a pompous title of "AI" is not really an AI but simply algorithms which handle inputs, but I let it slide--this is all fad. So, what is it in the end about these satellites' constellations and the piece of Colonel Falichev which Mr. Simplicius quoted? I would go out on a limb here and say that it is the tempest in the teacup, especially after Russian RUK/ROK and their performance provided a cultural shock to Pentagon, which has about zero experience with combined arms and netcentric operations of such scale as SMO, while the state of Russian industry and science allows to confidently state that the armed forces of Russia which are emerging through SMO not only already are the most advanced armed forces in the world with arsenal which is unrivaled by anyone, but with its ISR complex improving not only qualitatively, but in quantity. Just to demonstrate:

Today, Roskosmos published photos from Russian "research" and totally civilian (wink, wink), no, without jokes--it is civilian, satellite Canopus-B of the hapless Baltimore bridge and Dali vessel which destroyed it. Ask yourself a question, if civilian Russian satellite has a pretty darn good resolution, what do those Russian military satellites see. I'll give you a hint: in real war, suitable time stamped photo with acceptable data obsolescence even from Canopus will be more than enough for provision of targeting for any Russian made anti-shipping missiles against any surface ship. In related news, Iran also has Canopus (titled Khayyam) operating since 2022 and plans three more. Just a message. A hint... about resolving uncertainties. Now, if anybody would find me the background (what he graduated, when, what is his VUS--military-registration specialty et al.) of this Colonel Falichev. But I don't hold my breath.