This World Is Ending.

They finally ran into the wall. And everyone now knows. 

"Tactical" Nukes.

 To those who continue to bring here all kinds of "tactical nukes" BS just because they saw a "mushroom cloud".

1. Tactical nuke is defined as such NOT because of its yield, but because of its utility, that is--for solving tactical tasks. If the enemy's brigade spreads over large area and 2 to 5 kilotons are not enough, nobody prevents you from using 100kT device. It still will solve tactical level task only. Here is an example--Motorrifle Battalion attacking in one echelon with tactical nuke. 

Tactical being for achieving the tactical objective. It could be 2 kT, it could be something much more potent if, say, strong point is in the deep bunker. 

2. You cannot use nuke and not be immediately detected and identified by, say, Russia who has an advanced sensor network, including space-based Kupol which can see not only the flash (easily) and will know the nature of the charge, but it will know its yield but sensors will register all damaging factors of nuclear explosion ranging from flash to EMP, to radiation to a seismic event. The US knows this. Its use of nuke will be immediately detected and the user identified. What follows next--even majority nutjobs in D.C. can imagine. 

So, please, stop dragging here all kinds of hysterical X twits by some morons stating that because they saw "mushroom cloud" it is nuke. 

Turkish TV ...

 ... reports from Israel. 

As you can see yourself--not very peaceful. With Iranian missiles incoming it is not fun. As WSJ reports: 

WASHINGTON—President Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, according to U.S. officials, a complex and risky mission that would likely put American forces inside the country for days or longer. Trump hasn’t made a decision on whether to give the order, the officials said, adding that he is considering the danger to U.S. troops. But the president remains generally open to the idea, according to the officials, because it could help accomplish his central goal of preventing Iran from ever making a nuclear weapon.

Expect more of this bullshit being spread around with Trump and his Israeli handlers being caught in a strategic trap, and expect also an additional round of Iranian (and global) mocking and sarcasm. 

There is NO "plan", plan being a viable coherent sequence of military actions designed to achieve ... what goals? It never was about Iran's nukes, it was about Israel removing the nation which stands (in Israel's imagination of own "might", pathetic as it is) in a way of Israel reshaping the Middle East. Well, judging by the "performance" of IDF in Southern Lebanon, where it is now bogged down and is being humiliated militarily by Hezbollah, these "ideas" have been concocted by people who have no clue about warfare. They need the US to do a dirty job. Will Trump double down? Absolutely--he is a coward and is incapable to accept the fact of the US being paraded globally as a paper tiger and he is the main culprit of humiliating his country, his military and his people. 

So, now it is about extracting of 1,000 pounds of uranium. What is it going to be tomorrow? 

Oil prices had another volatile start to the week before breaking out due to a combination of military escalation and diplomatic breakdown.

Yes, they are growing (futures that it), physical oil is through the roof already and it will get only worse. One doesn't have to be "energy analyst"--being a military one at this stage will suffice. The system can take only so much BS before it ceases and Donny maybe is getting the message about horrifying reality for him and Israel. And then, of course, there is this teeny-weeny "skirmish" in Europe called SMO, which, as you may remember, Donny promised to stop in 24 hours year and a half ago, and which is a driving force behind the events of today. Iran is in a driving seat, and is dictating conditions to a loser. 

Meanwhile US and Israel do what they do best--kill civilians. 

No wonder, they trained terrorists from 404. Always the same picture. But I guess for the first time since Vietnam the US encountered a nation which is staring the US down with Iranian people will to fight for their land and culture which goes back 3,000 years. 

In Related News ...

... from Captain Obvious news agency--water is wet, fire is hot and concrete floors are hard.

Leaked spy report warns Trump's Iran war faces disaster. A leaked classified report by the National Intelligence Council has shed an unfavorable light on Donald Trump's decision to strike Iran, warning that military involvement could be disastrous. 

"Could be"? Seriously? It already is--it is a military-political catastrophe for the US and its master Israel, and anyone with half military brain knew it was coming. A bunch of corrupt amateurs driven by a combination of factors ranging from religious heresy to desire to cover up their crimes tried to play "war", not having a clue about it. American generals--a collection of losers, who never won anything but are prolific at parading their insanity, butthurt and incompetence in media are now pushing for deploying 82nd Airborne into what will turn out to be hell from Iranian stand-off weaponry against which the US Army has no defense. US "operational planning". Complete madness and utter, glaring military-intel incompetence on part of the US. Stupefying--the only word for it. 

Correct ...

 ... that's the name of the game for this crowd which finally recognized what I was talking about for 11 years. 

More than five years ago I wrote:

Economic self-sufficiency which is also a foundation of REAL national security starts from industry. No industry--no American nation. Simple as that. Modern generation of American "elites" has no idea, or, possibly, doesn't even care about what happens when the attempts to re-industrialize fail precisely because no one knows how to do it for real, not by doing what they got used to do--"printing" money which only accelerates a decline, towards eventual disintegration. So, here it is--no real recovery without real industries, which translate into real employment, this means reorienting production for the internal market and.... here we pause, because this seemingly simple scenario requires a long and substantive debate because this is where the issue of trade comes in and 99.99% of the American "elite" are a free trade neo-liberal fundamentalists who have neither knowledge nor skills to avert what is already not just on the horizon but knocking on the door. If you think otherwise, just take a look at the graphs above, especially a 10 year one. Things just got worse, not better since 2010. I am sure vast number of events coordinators, DJs and shopping assistants will have to rethink seriously their career choices if they even want any shot at any vacancy in a dramatically shrinking America's basis, before collapsing superstructure buries them.   

Capital also loves victors. Here "isolated" Putin is greeted (in a pleasant violation of protocol) by his buddy Modi. 

If rumors about new lease of a nuclear sub to India are correct, something tells me that Russia may provide Indian Navy with the very first hull of project 885 SSGN Severodvinsk. She can carry 3M22 Zircon but her main load is P-800 Oniks, which, of course, India has and it is called Brahmos. This is a transfer of an enormously powerful technology. But again, the production of Sukhoi 100 at HAL facilities for India's market has been already discussed, I am positive it is greenlighted now. 

Yes, I Spoke About It ...

 ... for many years. 

The EU has failed to learn the lessons of history by once again gathering under a Nazi flag to attempt to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday. Lavrov was responding to remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who on Monday declared there were “no more range limitations” for weapons sent to Ukraine by the West, including Germany. Merz has also vowed to turn the German military into Europe’s strongest conventional force. “Europe has once again found itself a Nazi flag by committing to a completely misguided, disastrous venture of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia,” Lavrov stated. “To hear from the current German leader that Germany will regain its position as the leading military power in Europe, just after we have celebrated the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Hitler’s Nazism, is quite symptomatic. History, apparently, taught these people nothing.”

Correct, nothing could be learned when one is moved not just by ignorance but by all-consuming hatred, much of it covered up by political expediency of post-WW II narratives. France was as Nazi as was Germany, hundreds of thousands of French Wehrmacht and SS volunteers is a well known fact, so is Vichy. Czechs provided Wehrmacht with up to 30% of its vehicles, Ukrainians distinguished themselves as genocidal sadistic formations killing civilians such way that even some SS people were shocked. Finns want to forget that their army played a critical role in the siege of Leningrad. 

You see, they don't learn, because you cannot change your cultural DNA in which Russians are viewed, as they always have been, as Asiatic subhumans. They still believe that Russians somehow want to possess urine-reeking dump of Paris or enjoy gay-parades in Hamburg. They have no clue, as usual. Russians are not coming. They don't want to, nor do they need to. Europe is a drab pauper. 

Yes, George--we knew it happened already in 2017. 

Joseph Does A Wonderful Interview ...

 ... it is also profound. It also explains partially why I still can live in the US, while I will never be able to live in Europe. 

Dawning Realization.

Mike Krupa sent me this interesting document: from Polish American Strategic Initiative. The title of document is: Open Letter against Poland’s military engagement in Ukraine. Here is almost full letter:

Many within the Polish American community strongly believe that NATO should remain a defense alliance and not an instrument of unrestrained geopolitical ambitions of its most dominant members. Poland must not allow itself to be drawn or forced into military engagement(s) outside of Polish borders unless attacked. The trajectory of future developments is not easy to predict nor is it predetermined. However, it is a given that the future political and military decisions of the Russian Federation will depend on the actions of its adversaries. Escalatory behaviors will be predictably met with escalatory reactions. Russia’s conviction of facing an existential threat and its clearly signaled determination to use all its capabilities in the conflict need to be seriously considered before any escalatory steps are taken.

The consequences of conflict escalation advocated by some European leaders might lead to highly tragic outcomes in Poland and globally. We urge Polish politicians to refrain from offensive rhetorical excesses and empty threats, which regrettably indicate an inability to realistically assess Poland’s capabilities in a situation of actual military confrontation. Polish Americans stand ready to support and assist President Duda and Prime Minister Tusk as they work together to strengthen and maintain Poland’s deterrence capabilities but remain adamantly opposed to engaging Poland deeper in a war that cannot be won, and which would ultimately lead to the destruction of Poland. We appeal to Poland’s leaders to align with those European leaders who call for a peaceful resolution of the war.

Reasonable and wise letter, I would say. Comes with another peculiar document of some people in UK realizing that:

The UK stands today as an ‘off-shore’ mid-sized power in a rapidly changing world. The challenges and trends shaping the UK’s future prosperity and security are long term in nature. Our approach to international affairs needs urgent renewal to reflect these realities and to shape our future place in the world 

Correct. They call for effectively disbanding Foreign Office, which lives in La-La Land of British "greatness", and reconstituting it anew. They also call for UK concentrating more on multilateralism in dealing with same middle-sized powers like Japan. They still, however, use the same fictitious economic metrics, like nominal GDP, and that completely discredits--expected from British "scientists"--any further analysis. But... but, at least they concede--UK is not Premier League, she is at best a Championship, at worst--the league lower than Championship. But, hey, progress is progress, right? I will reiterate--there are only three superpowers in the world: USA, China and Russia. India ascending, but still has a long way to go. The dynamics within these three is pretty obvious. US is abdicating, Russia and China are ascending. A lot will be revealed at November 2024. If Democrats win--the US will be over, no matter the political dynamics, because the US is bankrupt now and today. The only difference if she disintegrates fully or will make a relatively soft landing, with as little bloodshed as possible, amidst final preparations for US Dollar's funeral.   

Larry's Warning.

We better listen. 

 

One Must Have Weight.

 404 has none, neither has its piano penis player-virtuoso Ze. 

DAVOS, Switzerland — Ukrainian leaders made no secret of wanting to meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland this week but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has headed home without the desired encounter in a blow to Kyiv. China’s delegation in Switzerland had ample opportunity to sit across from their Ukrainian counterparts, whether in Bern or at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Any meeting would have satisfied a long-standing hope in Kyiv to hold frank, in-person discussions with senior officials from Beijing. Just before a multi-nation peace summit in the Swiss Alps, Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said it was imperative for China to join peace talks and hinted that Zelenskyy would have an opportunity to chat with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. In the end, Ukraine made no headway on getting China to commit to negotiations, and Zelenskyy and Li failed to speak.

What peace talks? Where is China and where are the remnants of 404? Chihuahua trying to convince the elephant that she matters? 404 and Ze have no say in any peace talks, because there will be NO peace talks--there will be only a dictation of conditions Moscow will impose, NO, not on 404, but on the combined West. China knows it, why should government officials of the first (and monstrous) economy of the world even lower themselves to a pawn in the game of three giants, US, China and Russia, going through the motions in a geopolitical universe where nobody will remember 404 in twenty years. Superpowers move in their own universe where different laws are applied. Will India enter the club some time soon in historic terms? Possible, but for now there are three. Will the US commit suicide by attacking Iran? Well, then there will be two left and the US abdicating its status. But will talk about this when we cross this bridge. 

Totally Natural.

I can even name systems which are extremely "popular". 

Western countries are attempting to steal Moscow’s military technology and are targeting industry experts, Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov said on Monday. During an interview with news agency RIA Novosti, Manturov was asked if there were instances of industrial espionage by “unfriendly countries” while Russia is ramping up defense production. “This has been the case at all times. It is occurring today and will occur tomorrow,” the minister said. “There is an active hunt not only for promising research, the data and parameters of our weapons, but also for our specialists who are especially valuable.” “It is not only the issue of espionage. I believe you’ve seen media reports that the FSB had prevented an attempt on the life of one of top managers of a defense company,” the minister said.

It is totally expected and they salivate at anything hypersonic, S-350, 400, 300V4 line of AD complexes, and a variety of munitions, not least for new generation of Krasnopol which is now in serial production and is already being used on the front-lines. And this is just a very short list, with standoff weaponry being another hot commodity. Per engineers? Too late, most of them are deeply rooted in Russia, make a very good living and, naturally, are both protected and tracked by FSB. The West, however, is more than welcome to take economists, political scientists and "experts" with degrees from most "prestigious" schools in Russia. I would start from VShE. While at it, there are also many "free thinkers" of other caliber and because most of them can hardly qualify for sweeping the streets of Russian cities, they will fit perfectly with Western academe. 

But seriously, the hunt for Russian military (and not only) technologies will not only continue, it will increase dramatically because in terms of military and some dual use technologies Russia is way ahead of the combined West and the gap grows. War does it to you--most of the time you leapfrog in combat technologies and many civilian applications which follow. In related news--attack on port Feodosia. All kinds of Ukie and Western outlets report that they "destroyed" a landing ship Novocherkassk. Could be true, but as was the case with THREE (in reality--zero) Su-34, let's wait and see what will Russian side say. Novocherkassk is an old pr. 775 landing ship built in Poland in 1987 and if it was there in repairs, possible that she sustained the damage. We'll see. As you may expect, the response will follow. Ukies are mourning the loss of Mariinka and, as is traditional now, needed some PR action to raise spirits. Wrong way to do it. Especially when two IRIS-M complexes have been taken out in the last 48 hours. 

Implications, By Phil...

 ... Giraldi. 

Many people still do not understand what is happening. I cannot emphasize enough the seriousness of crimes against humanity the Obama (Biden) Administration are committing. "Admiral" Kirby, Good God...

Europe Is Written Off.

 And how do we know this? Easy, today, at Primakov Readings:

 

Вопрос: Каковы перспективы российско-европейских торгово-экономических отношений? Учитывая, что Россия является поставщиком почти одной трети углеводородов в Европу, которая, видимо, будет искать альтернативу. Как Москва представляет себе развитие этих отношений?

С.В.Лавров: Даже не буду пытаться гадать, что Европа собирается делать. Думаю, она (кроме Канцлера ФРГ О.Шольца и вице-канцлера Р.Хабека) поняла, где оказалась.

Почитайте статистику, во сколько раз США обгоняют экономический рост Европы. Франция, судя по всему, будет в «нулях». Некогда «локомотивы» европейской экономики (Германия, Великобритания) будут «расти» вниз. После серии законов, принятых американцами для борьбы с инфляцией и по другим темам, цены на энергоносители в США в 4-5 раз ниже, чем в Европе, где происходит деиндустриализация.

Думающий о своем будущем бизнес переезжает в Соединенные Штаты. Убежден, что это не просто стечение обстоятельств, а осознанная политика Вашингтона. Потому что Европа – это тоже конкурент, который США не нужен. Им нужна группа «серых» людей, выполняющих то, что прикажут. Не хочу обижать европейцев, но нынешние политические элиты действуют именно так.

Смотрим статистику. Полезно понимать, что происходит. Но на данном этапе нам не надо думать о том, как восстановить отношения с Европой. Сейчас нужно думать, как не зависеть от «вывертов» в европейской политике (прежде всего в торговой, экономической, инвестиционной сферах), которые они делают под воздействием Вашингтона. Мы должны обезопасить себя во всех ключевых отраслях нашей экономики (безопасности и жизни в целом), от которых зависит будущее страны. Мы должны самостоятельно производить всё, что нам нужно для безопасности, развития экономики, обеспечения решений социальных вопросов, внедрения современных технологий (недавно прошло очередное мероприятие по искусственному интеллекту), чтобы не страдать от новых «капризов», когда и если они захотят накинуться на нас с санкциями.

Рестрикции никуда не исчезли. Запад хочет закончить всё «втихаря», по-хитрому. Заморозить, выиграть время (как было с Минскими соглашениями), опять вооружить нацистский режим в Киеве и продолжать свою гибридную (или не гибридную) агрессию против Российской Федерации. Но даже когда всё закончится, большинство санкций останутся.

Нам надо жить своим умом. Когда и если к ним придет «протрезвление», и нам будут что-то предлагать, мы десять раз подумаем, взвесим, отвечают ли все предложения нашим интересам и насколько европейские коллеги надежны. Они свою договороспособность и репутацию сильно подорвали. Может быть еще не окончательно.

Translation:

Question: What are the prospects for Russian-European trade and economic relations? Considering that Russia supplies almost one third of hydrocarbons to Europe, which will apparently be looking for an alternative. How does Moscow imagine the development of these relations? 

Sergey Lavrov: I won’t even try to guess what Europe is going to do. I think she (except for German Chancellor O. Scholz and Vice-Chancellor R. Habeck) understood where she ended up. Read the statistics on how many times the US economic growth is faster than Europe. France, apparently, will be in the “zeros”. The once “locomotives” of the European economy (Germany, Great Britain) will “grow” downwards. After a series of laws adopted by the Americans to combat inflation and other topics, energy prices in the United States are 4-5 times lower than in Europe, where deindustrialization is taking place. Businesses thinking about their future move to the United States. I am convinced that this is not just a coincidence, but a deliberate policy of Washington. Because Europe is also a competitor that the United States does not need. They need a group of “gray” people who do what they order. I don’t want to offend Europeans, but this is exactly how the current political elites act. Let's look at the statistics. It's useful to understand what's going on.  

But at this stage we do not need to think about how to restore relations with Europe. Now we need to think about how not to depend on the “twists” in European politics (primarily in the trade, economic, and investment spheres) that they make under the influence of Washington. We must protect ourselves in all key sectors of our economy (security and life in general), on which the future of the country depends. We must independently produce everything we need for security, economic development, providing solutions to social issues, introducing modern technologies (another event on artificial intelligence was recently held), so as not to suffer from new “whims” when and if they want to attack us with sanctions. The restrictions have not disappeared anywhere. The West wants to finish everything “on the sly,” in a cunning way. Freeze, buy time (as was the case with the Minsk agreements), again arm the Nazi regime in Kyiv and continue their hybrid (or non-hybrid) aggression against the Russian Federation. But even when everything is over, most of the sanctions will remain. We need to live by our own mind. When and if they “sober up” and they offer us something, we will think ten times, weigh whether all the proposals meet our interests and how reliable our European colleagues are. They have greatly undermined their ability to negotiate and their reputation. It may not be final yet.

There, everything is answered. And yes, Russia will talk to Washington only and only when she sees that Washington is ready to talk. Well, this is what happens when the high-school basketball team tries to play with NBA squad. Everything has been calculated and forecasted.

Somebody, Please Expain...

... to even well-wishing people, that before writing anything on Russia and China they better study the subject. Michael Warren Davies, for all his well-wishing and do-gooding, doesn't know the subject of Russo-Chinese relations, when in his attempt to detach China from Russia and attach Russia to the US writes:

A Chinese-Russian alliance poses a major threat to the United States and its allies. Most observers consider China and Russia to be the second- and third-most powerful countries in the world. More than that, it would serve as the basis for a global anti-NATO alliance, a new Eastern Bloc. The U.S. should be doing everything in its power to draw Russia away from China. The good news is that—again—Putin doesn’t want a protracted conflict with the West, even (or especially) with Xi watching his back. The only thing he dreads more is the thought of Ukraine joining NATO and allowing the U.S. Armed Forces to set up shop within its borders. 

1. Russia not only is NOT afraid of a protracted conflict, but it increasingly becomes a consensus that protracted conflict serves Russia's interests the best, since damages and weakens the West profoundly. Even deniers begin to admit this. 

2. And what's wrong with China watching Russia's back, especially after an overwhelming record of the combined West led by the US lying to Russian non-stop for the last 30+ years? But here comes the other thing what Davies misunderstands. 

In Russia-Chinese emerging alliance, militarily China is a junior partner, while Russia, continuing with SMO, serves Chinese strategic interests, as is true vice-versa, and provides her the time to get ready for a possible conflict with the US and its lapdogs in the Pacific. The US (forget about NATO) is facing a horrible reality of a Hollow Force, of which I warned since 2014, pointing to the inability to recognize it on its own (and the US failed miserably at that due to its hubris) this state of the affairs as a MAIN danger which will lead the US into a geopolitical catastrophe, which we all observe today. 

The tempo of SMO and the economy of force pattern fits Russia perfectly, as is economic dynamics in the Asian market, with US Dollar literally dying in a front of our very own eyes. So, I think Davies' conclusion that:

If we could, we’d see that the U.S. and Russia have far more to gain from each other than to lose. And believe it or not, such a partnership would also be in China’s best interests. Xi Jinping is badly overextending his country, both economically and militarily. The Chinese people need someone to gently check their government’s ambitions. Again, for the U.S. and Russia to confront China would be disastrous. But if we could achieve some sort of rapprochement, it would send a clear signal to Beijing: We’re taking a break from the hunger games…and so are you.

Is nothing more than a wishful thinking of Eddie from A Million Ways To Die in the West where his "girlfriend" Sarah Silverman "saves herself for the marriage" (virginity, evidently))), while working as a prostitute. 

Russia is surely not Eddie, while the rest of it doesn't even require additional elaboration. Hey, at least they know only two genders in China.

Fyodor Lukyanov Is Lost (Again)...

... in the forest consisting of four trees, or four geopolitical entities, if you wish, which are US, EU, Russia and China. In his latest in RT he continues to exhibit all traits of a discredited pseudo-academic field of political "science", in Russia aka politology, and its primary folly--lack of grasp of national power. The whole piece is a typical 4! (exclamation mark being factorial, that is 4 x 3 x 2 x 1= 24) ways, combinations, four things could be rearranged. This is a typical pol-sci approach and here is what especially stands out in Lukyanov's piece. 

Thus, when the Biden administration passes the Inflation Reduction Act, putting American citizens in a much better position than Europeans, it is perfectly in the interests of the US. So? Western Europe is caught in a trap and it’s unclear how it can escape. Absolute solidarity with the US on the Russian question implies subordination to a stronger partner. That said, the EU and UK are ready for this, but it means (for objective reasons): 1) that they must bear most of the costs, and 2) they should follow a common strategic position on the other issues of principle for their patron. And the main one here is China. Beijing will be Washington’s strategic rival for decades to come. However, it’s not a threat to Western Europe, and it’s not a challenge. Indeed, cooperation with it is advantageous. But why should the big brother allow his little sidekick to help someone who is at odds with him?

Lukyanov reads here from Washington's "strategic" script, which assumes, wrongly, that China's rivalry to Washington is somehow a preordained affair. I have news for Lukyanov--US IS NOT a strategic rival to Beijing, for all my rather stand-offish attitude towards China and being very far from Beijing's fanboy. The reason the US cannot be rival to China is in a simple fact of the US economy being dwarfed by that of China, even when considering some major structural issues of Chinese economy. The only venue the US can pursue, granted that the process of national degeneration can somehow be arrested, which is a huge question onto itself, is military-political, or, in other words, power politics which AUKUS is one manifestation of. Europe, meanwhile, was always on Washington's menu since 2014. But Washington has own serious digestive problems. Huge ones. 

I doubt that Lukyanov really has a grasp of these issues both economically, technologically, not to speak of operational part of them, and he, obviously, continues to reside in 1990s when speaking about modern US. But these are decisive factors which define the dynamics of modern world and power-struggle is NOT just between the US and China, economically the United States long ago lost this competition to Beijing, but between larger Eurasia and the US--the issue which cannot be resolved in the present state of the US military which lost the arms race not to Beijing, but to Russia. And these facts negate all factorial combinations of four entities, because each of them has its own dynamics and is decisively not static. And then comes this purely military issue which is beyond the grasp of graduates of philological faculty of Moscow State University (yes, that is Lukyanov's academic background) who try to comment on geopolitics which is driven by military might. 

Per the fate of Europe. Europe is being reduced to what it always was geographically--the appendix of a huge Eurasian continental mass and so will become its culture and economy, much of which, as is the case with the US, is nothing more than assets' inflation, service sector and expenditures which, somehow, are being counted as "product", when in reality detracting from it. But then again, the principle of Ellochka Schukina who was entranced by the gold plated tea strainer in Ilf and Petrov's immortal The Twelve Chairs, seems to be the main driving factor behind Moscow pseudo-intellectual Beau Monde saturated with journos, political "scientists", economists and similar types, thinking about modern West.

It doesn't take much to impress them with outwardly shiny manifestations of once West's glory and to blind them to these facts:

But then again, can you explain a toddler what factorial is? I thought so. 

Per Merkel. Bernhard penned a good piece on this issue:

I think that Merkel is obfuscating. Her original intent with Minsk II was not to buy time to arm Ukraine. Her intent was to prevent a further war and to make peace. The argument, that it gave time for Ukraine to arm, is only made now and only to save her political ass in the current political climate. The proof for that is in what she also brings up, Nord Stream 2, which has always had her full support. Its intent was to make Germany independent from the pipelines through Ukraine and Poland. But war came before the much delayed pipeline was ready. And any realistic alternative for Germany's current position was gone after the U.S. finally blew it up. Her answer with regards to Nord Stream 2 makes no sense if she, at the same time that Nord Stream 2 was build, had intentionally prepared Ukraine for war.

Read the whole piece. Bernhard makes some valid points. But they do not change the outcome of the whole PR snafu.  

In related news: huge congrats to Croatia for outstanding performance against Brazil.   

Why Europe Is Written Off...

 ... by Russia in civilizational sense. Here is another piece of a puzzle. 

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on Thursday, urging its member states to “declare the current Russian regime as a terrorist one.” The resolution was overwhelmingly backed by the PACE members present at the session, with 99 voting in its favor and one abstaining. The body has a total of 306 seats and twice as many members, half of which are principal members and half are substitutes. The adoption of the resolution has been celebrated by top Ukrainian officials, including President Vladimir Zelensky, who addressed the assembly before the vote. “This is a powerful signal to the world community and Russia that punishment for crimes is inevitable!” Zelensky said in a post on Twitter.

You cannot talk to this people, you cannot reason with them. Here is another cretin responding to a fully imaginary "threat" concocted by Jake Sullivan about Russia using tactical nukes in Ukraine. 

French President Emmanuel Macron has said Paris would not respond with nuclear weapons if Russia deployed nukes against Ukraine. The comments immediately drew the ire of critics, who said he had divulged too much information. Speaking to public broadcaster France 2 on Wednesday, Macron said his country had a clearly defined nuclear doctrine which was based on the “fundamental interests of the nation.” “These are clearly defined and wouldn’t be directly affected at all if, for example, there was a ballistic nuclear attack in Ukraine,” he said. Macron also tweeted on Wednesday that France does “not want a world war.”

Russia is not intent on using nukes, any nukes, in 404, Russia is doing it by conventional weapons just fine. Yet, the head of a nuclear armed state continues to respond to imaginary threats. The combined West is in a very deep trouble--it desperately needs, US included, an off-ramp. It is safe to assume (indicators are there) that Russia and the US are talking behind the scene, but as I wrote for years now--the US has no serious leverage over Russia in any field. And the white flags are getting ready. Sadly for the US it doesn't have anymore a competent diplomacy and is not ready, yet, to start listening.

Yale University "Study".

We start first, though, with the piece of bio of this guy: Jeffrey Sonnenfeld.

Born in Philadelphia on April 1st, 1954 to Jewish parents, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is the son of Burton Sonnenfeld, a men's clothing retailer, and Rochelle Sonnenfeld, a healthcare and community leader. Sonnenfeld's mother, Rochelle, originally immigrated to the United States from the former Russian Empire in the 1920s. Sonnenfeld earned his AB, MBA, and doctorate at Harvard University. At age 26, he joined the faculty of the Harvard Business School where he taught for 10 years. After a decade at Emory University, Sonnenfeld joined the faculty at Yale, bringing with him the CEO College and launching the Chief Executive Leadership Institute. At Yale, he built a new department of Executive Programs, offering 35 programs a year to roughly 2,000 top leaders with sessions in New Haven, New York City, Beijing, New Delhi, Mumbai, and Shanghai, and opened Yale University's first outpost in Washington, D.C. in 2011. His 2007 book, Firing Back (with Andrew Ward, Harvard Business School Press), studies the paths to resilience for felled CEOs, as well as victims from natural disasters, warfare, and other forms of disruption and adversity. At Yale SOM, Sonnenfeld teaches the popular course "Strategic Leadership Across Sectors", which is consistently the school's most popular and oversubscribed course. Sonnenfeld's previous students from Harvard, Emory, and Yale have gone on to become CEOs and leaders in a wide variety of fields. Sonnenfeld continues to be active in the local community and currently resides in Connecticut with his wife, Clarky, and their two daughters, Sophie and Lauren. 

So, basically, the guy is a glorified accountant who teaches a BS course in Yale and who, together with few of his brainwashed students studying BS he preaches, have commissioned a report about catastrophic sanctions on Russia. So, "vigilant" as ever, Euro mediahacks invited this creep to comment on how sanctions "work on Russia". 

And pay attention to the shot of Russia's empty shelves. The report concocted by those ignoramuses from Yale is hilarious. Enough to read this piece of "analysis" and data handling, LOL. 

Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas – as we explain further in Section II of this paper.

And other desperate impotent rage BS which passes in Yale for "scientific research", but among American "scholars" it is normal--to sublimate their childhood complexes and lack of culture, of which Sonnenfeld is exhibit A, into all kinds of wet dreams despite facts showing this research being a hack work, as it is a pretty normal MO of most of Western economists and economic "analysts". So read the whole "paper" which is filled with American "economics" and "extrapolations" by academic frauds--it is hilarious. 

So a simple guy, who visits typical Russian stores can easily out the whole Yale University "leadership" and "economics" programs as frauds, which they are.

But, as was stated not for once by me--Western "Russia Studies" field is occupied by academic frauds who pretend to do a real research and are gladly engaged by Western propaganda machine headed by media. 

But to demonstrate what fraud, academically and ideologically, this cabal in Yale is, take a look at this:
   

So, while reporting on ONLY Chinese imports of Russian oil, which grows, this fraudster posts a "dramatic" graph of the discounts Russia uses in selling its Urals which she... always did. Moreover, this snake oil peddler forgets to mention:

1. Russia's costs of oil extraction are between $10-15 per barrel, while Russian budget is based on $40-45 price of barrel of Urals. Which, when we consider the base price of Brent as $95, even with $35 discount, still gets us to (I know, Sonnenfeld, obviously has issues with arithmetic) gives us 95-35=60. Yes, Russia still makes a killing selling to China with such a discount. 

2. Russia already has in works own benchmark and the rubles for oil is coming, whether fraudsters at Yale want it or not. They also miss this news:

Poor, poor dears. It is so much more difficult to package and sell BS in a form of analysis, nowadays. Except for their own brainwashed and ignorant students, but that is the main function of the modern American education from kindergarten to Ivy League--to mentally and emotionally damage students and turn them into nothing more than biomass and consumers. In fact, Sonnenfeld is so dramatically unaware of the BS he spews, especially when speaking about Russian-Chinese trade relations that he provides a terminal illness of the US as a... proof of... Russia's damage from sanctions. 

The question is not that Russian-Chinese trade grows, nope, the question is that the US will cease economically in case China stops being US main supplier of a huge variety of products, and the fact that China exports more than half-a-trillion dollars worth of stuff ranging from socks to machinery to the US is, evidently, presented by Sonnenfeld as the advantage, when in reality being a curse both for the US and China. Plus, of course, Sonnenfeld, being a product of fake "economic science" has little understanding of the fact that China cannot meet her national security needs without Russia, especially against unified West, while Russia is not only can do it without China, but effectively is already doing it, and doing it well. But then again, trying to explain all this to American Ivy League "economist" is an exercise in futility. 

And so it goes, 118 pages of utter delirium, detached from reality, concocted by people who wouldn't be able to run a paid restroom inside Chevron gas station without bankrupting it, is presented as "analysis". These, my friends, are people who pass in the West for "elites" and these are precisely the people who practically wrecked the United States, let alone Europe, based on their sheer arrogance, ignorance, lack of culture and desperate desire to settle scores, which assumes at least a brief acquaintance with warfare and national security issues, but as they addressed Apollo 13 Flight Control Center:"Houston, we've had a problem here."(c) And it grows bigger. With "academicians" like this bunch from Yale, they will never be fixed and they will lead to final collapse. And don't worry about them feeling shame while lying--honor, academic integrity and class left Western political and educational establishment long time ago. It is gone. 

"Belgorod" Is In.

So, the big news today, of course, is this:

"Севмаш" передал ВМФ РФ подлодку "Белгород", которая будет первым носителем "Посейдонов"

Translation: "Sevmash" handed over to the Russian Navy the submarine "Belgorod", which will be the first carrier of "Poseidons"  

Obviously, Poseidon, together with a number of other Russia's serial produced weapons such as Avangard or Zircon--you know, the ones Western media called cartoons in 2018--worry the United States and there have been several attempts to "limit" the development and now the procurement of such weapons under different pretexts, including arms limitations talks. Enough to recall this:

The international community must band together to ban the use of autonomous nuclear weapons before it's too late, argues a leading arms control group. Autonomous nukes could make mistakes humans would not, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists—a Chicago-based nonprofit made up of scientists and global security experts—says in a recent post. The artificial intelligence (AI) programs that guide these weapons are inexperienced in making even relatively simple decisions without humans. The solution, the Bulletin states, is to always keep nuclear weapons under total human control.

Well, I agree in principle with limiting the use of AI in nukes, but who said that Poseidon is fully "autonomous"? Even this article states that:

Meanwhile, Russia is developing an autonomous uninhabited undersea vehicle, Poseidon (pictured at the top of this story). The bus-sized vessel travels at 70 knots an hour, packs a two-megaton thermonuclear warhead, and is designed to be launched against aircraft carriers and coastal targets. The U.S. Navy describes Poseidon as autonomous, Kallenborn notes, but it's unclear how much autonomy it actually has. Regardless, an autonomous system delivering a weapon with the explosive power of two million tons of TNT should make everyone uneasy.

The first thing, of course, is the use of "70 knots per hour" which is cringe-worthy because a knot IS a measure of speed and it is a nautical mile per hour. Used in knots per hour is more a description of acceleration (and old way of saying it) than of speed. Secondly, nobody but Russians know the degree of autonomy of Poseidon and Russia is not the country which takes such issues lightly. 

No matter how such an event will be spun by Western "journos", one has to keep in mind that Poseidon, while capable of wiping out huge segments of the coast by creating a monstrous tsunami--some say up to 500 meters high--its existence has profound ramifications for any fleet which would decide to travel as a formation, a precise way Carrier Battle Groups travel, because they become merely sitting ducks for such a weapon. Obviously modern means of detection and targeting on Poseidon, most likely, allow to use this huge vehicle as a carrier of a huge conventional warhead capable to sink, by detonating under the keel, any type of ship, including US Navy's CVNs. And it cannot be intercepted by modern ASW weapons due to a huge speed and an extreme difficulty of detecting it, especially when traveling at the depth of 1+ kilometer and surfacing only for the strike. 

It is a terrifying thing, plus, of course, its carrier--the redesigned pr. 949A K-329 Belgorod--doesn't need to venture far away from Russia's shores in case of serious events and can launch Poseidons from a relative safety of areas patrolled by Russian Navy's multipurpose subs and covered by ASW/Patrol aviation. 

Here is Belgorod a year ago, going to its sea trials. More carriers of Poseidon are being built. H.I. Sutton wrote three months ago.

Poseidon is a completely new category of weapon. It will reshape naval planning in both Russia and the West, leading to new requirements and new counter-weapons. A weapon which cannot be nullified with anti-missile defenses. In future nuclear tensions, if we live through this one, it will be a strong factor. But we are not there yet. As of today none of the submarines to carry it are operational. One test submarine, Sarov which can carry a single round, is in service. Another boat, Belgorod, is not yet commissioned. It could be speculated that Russia could attempt a launch if desperate enough. But it is currently nowhere near the threat level of traditional submarine launched missiles. Poseidon’s day will come.

The Poseidon's day has come and, together with 3M22 Zircon and new AD systems being deployed to new Russian Navy's ships, world's navies as we know them will go the way of sail ships and dreadnoughts--into history. 

In related news, VSU tried to mount some kind of "offensive" (a euphemism for couple of tactical level attacks) in Zaporozhie (in Russian). The result was easily predictable, pre-deployed VSU forces were promptly "Uraganized" and lost any desire to attack. Same goes for clowns who tried to "raise flag" at Snake Island couple of days ago and were immediately "decomposed" by Russian Air Force and those few who survived started to hide wherever they could at this island. Obviously, the solemn ceremony of raising Ukrainian flag had to be abandoned. But I am sure they will try it again some time later. They need all PR "victories" they can get. I am sure the Black Sea Fleet aviation will provide fireworks, if you know what I mean. 

On My Brief Response To Scott Ritter.

Or, what could be termed as "what Scott missed."  I still deeply respect Scott's position and his courage but my disagreement with his recent statement on SMO is of a purely technical nature. Let me explain. Here is a simple operational truism since 1980s: if I see you (target), I will destroy you. And here is where Scott might have missed some points which I make all the time for years and which explain why his assertion that some US "technology" and money (most of them will be stolen and laundered inside the US) have very little impact, if any on SMO. Here is this fact: there are ONLY two countries which have a state-of-the-art ISR complex, from satellites in space to massive optronic and signal intel. Right, these are US and Russia.  

For American person, especially the one who remembered Russia in 1990s it is sometimes inconceivable to grasp a simple fact that Russia has in many respects a real time situational awareness of not only of the whole battlefield but the whole theater. As recent VSU "counter-attack" in Zaporozhie has shown or, as today released video, Russians know exactly where those much-touted, in reality making no difference whatsoever, US M-777 howitzers are, what they are up to and Russians blow them apart (in Russian). These are just two examples out of very many of SMO being largely not only situationally but tactically aware. All this because Russia was into the game of cutting edge recon and intel much earlier than the US. Recall this? Modern Russian ISR is cutting edge and I spoke at length on the issues of such things as legacy MKRTz Legenda or newest Liana, but those two are just a few tools in the vast arsenal of Russian recon and targeting complex--NO other nation with the exception of the US has anything comparable. 

That is why when I hear that some piece of metal and a pile of increasingly diminishing US Dollars are going to make any real tactical, operational, let alone strategic difference in 404, other than being blown up or taken as trophies, I smile. Even LDNR people today complain (in Russian) that most of the US equipment when even not-expired and up to date, often doesn't work and breaks down. I know, for true American patriot such as Scott it is difficult to accept this fact but in the last 20 years it goes without saying that institutional rot completely engulfed America's strategic and operational thought and, and I wrote three books on that, US increasingly produced weapons which like Javelins or Littoral Combat Ships, or F-35 or Patriot PAC 3s are not really suited for a serious war against competent enemy who, in addition, like Russia, has all means to see the enemy and destroy it. 

P.S. The destruction (and implosion) of VSU accelerate as I type it and there is a real worry about detention facilities for POWs, I mean they are in high demand. But I guess it is not a bad problem to have. 

About SWIFT and Russia's Central Bank.

Immediately what needs to be stressed: as was pointed out by many professionals and simple economic sense laymen, switching Russia off achieves absolutely nothing for Russia than mere inconvenience. For the West and especially the US--it is a further degradation of the US Dollar system. Same goes for attack on Russia's Central Bank reserves. Considering the level of hysteria and, frankly, lack of any intellect in Washington and London, one has to ask questions on how many feet combined West really does have to shoot itself with self-defeating "sanctions". No, this is not to say that they are complete 146% morons, since Anglo-American "elite" is highly selective in "sanctions" because it conspicuously doesn't want to impose them on energy. Anything but energy!

Well, I think--the factor they still cannot fully grasp--it is Russia who has a final word on that, because nationalization of British and US property and assets in Russia may follow, especially against the background of Russia's Central Bank statement that it has all resources necessary to support Russia's financial system (in Russian). In the end there is always an option of demanding Rubles as payment for energy. But in the end, anyone with IQ above room temperature thought that Russia's didn't prepare for this contingency. Come on. 

Under these circumstances what is left for Western media is to use pathos-ridden hyperbole and fluffy (and hysterical) rhetoric, not to mention spreading a full-blown BS regarding military operation in Ukraine. Well, that is why the West finds itself today where it is--one has to have OODA loop in order, especially first two "Os", but as I state non-stop, looking at the level of "competence" of the West, one should abandon any hope of getting touch with the reality. Military "analysis" in the West, especially by all those generals and other "experts" in the US MSM is preposterous. I will try to address the issue later, but, boy, don't they have self-respect? Evidently they don't and do operate with propaganda cliches only. This means not understanding fundamental issue of counterinsurgency in Ukraine and what Russia faces in this respect, the same as how she will handle it. They, certainly, have really big issues with grasping modern air-defense and how it is used and, in general, they are not that good as military professionals, of which I wrote earlier this months. In other words they lack understanding of modern battle space in the campaigns when one faces a fairly competent and not completely incompetent Iraqi military. They didn't get the message with "NATO trained" Georgia in 2008, now, I assume they are simply butt-hurt because this is the first modern war of the age and they can only envy. But we will get to purely military analysis and operational matters based on clear facts later, when the fog of war will clear somewhat. 

After humiliation of Afghanistan (and Iraq) and exposing its military impotence, NATO, as the living organism which has a slow poison introduced in it, will succumb to this poison and will die inevitably. Recall then title of my first book. For now, it seems, Kharkov is about to fall to Russian Army--yet another major (more than 1 million population) urban center which is about to be taken. Yes, I know, use the simple rule--the higher the pitch of hysteria and the larger are the numbers of Russian tanks, aircraft, personnel and satellites "destroyed" by VSU and reported in US MSM--the better is the progress of Russian and LDNR forces. I know, it is such a difficult thing to be the genuine article in life, but there is always PR and propaganda and US "experts" are good at it. Baghdad Bob syndrome on full display.