Capital also loves victors. Here "isolated" Putin is greeted (in a pleasant violation of protocol) by his buddy Modi.
If rumors about new lease of a nuclear sub to India are correct, something tells me that Russia may provide Indian Navy with the very first hull of project 885 SSGN Severodvinsk. She can carry 3M22 Zircon but her main load is P-800 Oniks, which, of course, India has and it is called Brahmos. This is a transfer of an enormously powerful technology. But again, the production of Sukhoi 100 at HAL facilities for India's market has been already discussed, I am positive it is greenlighted now.
Not in terms of taxes, as George H.W. Bush said, making this phrase famous, or a meme, if one wishes, but in terms of Russia NOT GOING back to Europe. So, read my lips: majority of Russians have a profound sense of contempt for modern Europe and Russia's future is in Eurasia, not in Europe. The reason I post this because of a funny exchange between Chris Chuba and the guest under the handle Milly, who discuss Milly's statement:
Milly, whoever he(she) is, obviously failed to read this blog and keep abreast with the events of the last 8 years or so. Not only I constantly stress the fact that modern Europe and Russia "are totally different worlds", but I am on record for years calling for erection of the new Iron Curtain by Russia and detaching Russia from Europe in the most dramatic way, bar some basic economic ties which are mutually expedient, for now. There could be no normal relation between Russia and Europe as a whole and Eastern Europe in particular. I agree with Milly, Europe is an enemy of Russia and latest moves by Russia testify to this fact--from Russia declaring in her new Constitution a primacy of Russia's laws over any supranational, primarily conceived in EU, laws, such as European Human Rights Court, to shutting down, finally, a bunch of NGOs which, despite declarations, have nothing to do with "democracy" and "human rights".
Apart from some economic ties, the main task for Russia in new geopolitical paradigm is to be an arc for those Europeans who are still sane and cannot live anymore in the multicultural totalitarian cloaca Europe increasingly becomes. Here is the second reading of my lips: never again Russian soldier's foot will step on European soil--keep the Iron Curtain and let Europeans face whatever they cooked for themselves--it was their choice. I am sure Arabs and Africans have own ideas on the fate of Europe. So, if tomorrow Europe will start wearing burkas--Russia has no business in all that. If new European idea of marching to the East rises again, Russia simply has to wipe out the seats of European governments who advocate such a plan and this is easy to do. As long as EU countries pay for Russia's hydrocarbons and other products, they can do whatever they want and all become transgenders if they wish. Europe cannot be saved and Russia and Russians have a very clear understanding of this fact. If there is a hint which cannot get any clearer that Russia wrapped it up with Europe, this is Shoigu's plan for new Russia's Siberian industrial clusters:
This is Shoigu's not only the actual plan--obviously approved at the very political top of Russia--but Shoigu's path to Russia's presidency. Shoigu is the guy who gets things done. This major undertaking in Siberia:
You see, Europeans still don't get it that they are not that important to Russia anymore and they still love to delude themselves with their self-importance, while in reality, bar few Russian Nouveauriche and tourists, there is very little value in Europe for Russia. Just to give you some idea, why should Russians go to France's Nice or Spain, when the string of resort cities on Russia's Black Sea coast--even considering ever expensive Sochi--goes through transformations like that. Here is old Russian resort city of Gelendzhik (I, actually, have few friends who live there), and this is just one of many such cities.
You see, no crime, no African and Arab immigrants and boat people harassing everyone, clean, affordable. Massive highways are being built as I type it. My only regret is that we didn't buy a condo in Gelendzhik when they were more affordable. So, for Europeans it is a high time to wake up and get a bit of self-awareness and take a look around and recognize the reason why Russia is gone, gone, gone and thank God for that.
Who needs these meaningless statements on being against everything bad, and for everything good? But this is precisely the feeling one gets when observing France's yet another diplomatic "maneuver" of trying to insert herself (obviously, on Macron's initiative) as intermediary between combined West and Russia. As TASS reports:
Blah blah blah blah, yada yada yada. It is becoming, indeed, nauseating reading about these crude attempts to prevent Russia's Eurasian integration, which is now irreversible, and especially from the nation (France) whose President, Macron that is, still thinks that Russia's GDP size is that of Spain. No, really. It is, of course, understandable that France has her own interests and visions but those are hardly compatible with those of Russia. I can not even conceive what can possibly be substantively discussed between Shoigu and France's Defense Minister--what kind of "cooperation", "cooperation" in exactly what? I understand that some intelligence exchange on terrorist threats is not only possible but highly desirable, but high level military cooperation is simply out of the question and it is not up to France, or Macron, to make such decisions.
Make no mistake--I am all for talking. It is better to talk than to fight, but this talking, with one side (France) having no sincere desire to do anything in good faith with Russia, changes absolutely nothing in the structure of the Russia-West relations. France will still remain NATO member, she will still be dependent on the United States' will, which, in the end, will get France back to where it belongs as an American lap-dog. Airbus still WILL get competition from Russian aerospace products, coordinates of French military installations will still be in the flight plans of Russia's stand-off weapons, Russia also will never forget France's criminal role in both Libya and Syria. Russian-French trade is minuscule and the times when my and generation of our parents were charmed by French cinematography, music, perfumes and style are long gone. The charm is gone together with, indeed, French cinematography, music, style and France's sovereignty as a nation of French people. Perfumes still remain, but for how long until creeping Sharia will forbid the use of alcohol in them, who knows. So, do not expect anything of substance from these "negotiations". In the end, they are mostly Macron's PR campaign designed for domestic consumption in France and reminding voters that France still matters. Europe has made her choice and Russians, overwhelming majority of them, are keenly aware of it and that is the only thing which matters in this "security" configuration. Those who will need the sanctuary in Russia in the future--they will be welcomed, but as Alexander Blok foresaw it 101 years ago:
But we shall keep aloof from strife,
No longer be your shield from hostile arrow,
We shall just watch the mortal strife
With our slanting eyes so cold and narrow.
Unmoved shall we remain when Hunnish forces
The corpses’ pockets rake for plunder,
Set town afire, to altars tie their horses,
Burn our white brothers’ bodies torn asunder.
Daniel Larison arrived three days ago to a conclusion that Donald Trump Doesn't Know How to Negotiate. Well, we have known that for quite some time now. As Larison notes:
Of course, the foundation of this lack of negotiating skills--yeah, let's say it is just that, for now--is common for pretty much majority of US power elite--it is a malignant belief in own exceptionalism. Trump is flesh and blood of this culture, it is just that not having any serious scholarly nourishment or life experiences beyond the NYC real estate hustling, he delivers the message in the most crude and risible form. So, Trump is merely a cruder, less sophisticated form of US elites. He, most likely after brainwashing by his very own so called national security team, simply finished off INF Treaty. He, quite naturally, blamed Russia for violating this Treaty and, in two weeks after INF Treaty's demise, the United States launched the missile outlawed by this very treaty, thus creating a variety, of mostly sarcastic, reactions in Moscow, who, as we all know from the ever truthful US media, was blatantly violating the said treaty. The whole situation could have been really comedic, if not for it being very serious and that was precisely the mood with which Vladimir Putin responded to, what we all knew for years now, inevitable deployment of American TLAMs in the Aegis Ashore installations and other places in Europe.
First, let's recall what the INF Treaty was about and why the United States decided to kill it. As was stated not for once, INF Treaty was extremely favorable to the United States for a while because it didn't cover sea-launched intermediate range weapons--a precise domain in which in the end of 1980s the United States had a vast advantage over Soviet Union, whose main intermediate-range strike capabilities were land-based. Cretin Gorbachev and his "team", in the moment of utter insanity, unilaterally threw in, for a good measure, Operational-Tactical Missile complex (OTR-23) Oka to be eliminated. Then, the USSR collapsed and Russia has unilaterally, again, this time through the will of alcoholic Boris and his team of thieves and robber-barons turned herself into the door mat for the combined West. In fact, by the end of 1990s it was difficult to see how Russia's military could recover at all, granted it was sabotaged every step of the way by Russia's "liberal" political top. Yet, here we are in 2019 and one has to wonder if Russia is realistically sorry because of INF Treaty demise. I don't think she is.
I kept my focus on this issue for years now. Recall my series of posts titled The Perils of Mosquito. Or, for that matter, my prediction (even before Putin's historic speech to Federal Assembly on March 1, 2018) that, at that time (2017), Russia's existing cruise missile arsenal was more than enough to provide for what Russian Military Doctrine of 2014 called a "power (as in force) strategic containment by conventional high-precision stand-off weapons". Remember this?
Then came the Speech and a tectonic shift in the warfare which pushed warfare beyond present capabilities of the American military-industrial complex. One of many hints that (real) professionals in the US understand what they are facing now was this, four days ago:
Pay attention to text highlighted in yellow. Those "newly emerging types of the missiles" are precisely those hyper-sonic maneuvering quasi-ballistic and cruise missiles which Russia developed for all three domains (land, air, sea) for her armed forces and those are already deployed. The only "response" the United States has at its disposal is to go for quantity of good ol' subsonic iterations of venerable Tomahawk and all kinds of other slow variations of TLAMs such as JASSM or allegedly super-pooper "magical" weapon such as CHAMP. All this is fine and dandy, but the issue for the United States is two fold:
1. She doesn't have hyper-sonic weapons and is years, if not decades, away from fielding a working prototype, forget IOC or fully deployed weapon system.
2. Unlike Russia, American anti-missile systems are....well...let's recall what Publius Tacitus wrote about that:
S-500 is already in serial production. What's coming next is simply a matter of speculation but it has to be understood that Russia not only is capable to match and then over-match greatly any strike capability of NATO in Europe or in US proper, Russia has means to blunt if not to completely repulse a massive strike of slow subsonic or theater ballistic missiles on her territory. Numbers should help.
Putin and his advisers continue to express concern with TLAMs being loaded into the MK-41 cells of Aegis Ashore in Deveselu, Romania, and Redzikowo, Poland. Even the brief glance on the map allows to conclude that Polish site will be primarily a threat to Kaliningrad Oblast of Russia, due to a relatively short flight time of about 15 minutes (140 miles between Redzikowo and Kaliningrad), while missiles launched from Deveselu would have to be airborne for at least 40 minutes, including half of a path over water, to strike Sevastopol. 40 minutes is a very good time to not only have anti-missile complexes completely engaged (well, 15 minutes is also fairly generous) but to have response delivered to European facilities and to launch at North America. Strategically, in military terms, for Russia very little changes in terms of ratio of forces. In fact, as I write non-stop for years, Russia has qualitative edge over the United States in missile technologies for at least a decade, if not more. Russia's protestations, expected as they are, and having in them a very sincere component of traditional Russian aversion towards any kind of hostilities and arms races, are, nevertheless, primarily of the Frank Herbert's Dune Landsraad's tradition of "The Forms Must be Obeyed".
But, diplomatic and media-PR posturing apart, military balance sheet between Russia and NATO in Europe in case, God forbids, of the serious escalation is very clear. NATO (US that is) has a salvo and has no defense against the response to put it in layman's lingo. NATO can launch at Russia and hope that some of it's salvo, most of it subsonic and fairly easily defended against, will leak through multilayered state-of-the-art anti-missile defense. What comes in response against Europe and US cannot be defended against--US has nothing in its arsenal that can meet and blunt dramatically the salvo of supersonic weapons, against hyper-sonic weapons--zero defenses and this will stay such for a long while in this strategic tic-tac-toe game in Europe. Of course, this is European contingency, there is also a Chinese, of Far East, one, but Russian response will be about the same--new anti-missile complexes and new strike weapons on the Far East.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to evolve as Eurasian primary military power pole and new massive military exercises Center-2019 are yet another proof of that:
These maneuvers will involve a wide use of Russian Armed Forces' combat internet and all those gizmos and gadgets of what came to be known as Net-centric Warfare. I guess Russia is getting ready to defend subcontinent after Mr. Trump declared that US defeated ISIS and it is now up to...well...read for yourself:
Sure. United States wouldn't have spent those 19 years in Afghanistan if it wouldn't have aided those very mujaheddin in 1980s who, together with the remnants of a demolished Iraqi Army and other jihad-minded humanitarians, constituted the core of both Taliban and ISIS. But we all know that hindsight is a 20/20 vision and one has to think now how the new "arms race" initiated by the United States will be viewed in the hindsight twenty or so years down the road, granted we all survive Mr. Trump's lack of negotiating skills, including skills in recognizing that he surrounded himself with militarily incompetent neocon fanatics and Israeli-firsters who, together with Wall Street Neo-liberal economic fundamentalists, are behind America's demise in military, economic and geopolitical senses. One may add a mental one, too.
The issue here, of course, is extremely simple--sanction Turkey, and her drift away from NATO only accelerates, and there goes NATO as a viable military organization. Europeans will press on with their own European Armed Forces after that and, in general, it will be yet another Trump Administration's "win" for the United States. Isn't "winning" wonderful? Turks know what they are doing. As I stated before, and, let's be honest, that was very easy to predict, Russia already offered Turkey SU-35s as a "patch" deal until more serious military-industrial cooperation, involving some technology transfer will be hammered out between Turks and Russians.
While Ahmed Aubodouth's (of The Independent) piece is full of butt-hurt delirium so characteristic of UK sewer, aka its Orwellian mass-media, let's be honest--even those morons understand that:
I deliberately, with my nose held, referenced this piece since even this guy gets it in terms of a nightmare. In other terms, however, he, as is expected, doesn't get it--Turkey is her own nation, with or without Putin's "evil" plans, and after Gulenist Coup in 2016 and, now obvious, inside job of shooting Russia's SU-24 down in 2015, or murdering of Russia's Ambassador Karlov, it is clear that Erdogan knew who and how was behind those events. The rest of the piece is a standard "lefty" gibberish, including now tired bromides about European "values". But it is, indeed, a disaster for the US (as is the whole Trump's so called foreign policy, or lack thereof) and the issue here is not just political--it is, in the end, of the military-technological competition. What ALL Western media miss, of course, is the fact that Turkey is back into imperial game and is planning to lead Islamic world in the future. That is the main driver behind Erdogan's vision for Turkey and it goes without saying--one cannot deal with modern West which is becoming increasingly degenerate and not-agreement capable. One cannot also deal with defense of such vision as Turkish one by using American weaponry: a lot of it it is not that good, for starters, as F-35 demonstrated so vividly and, secondly, the United States can always, whenever she wants, shut off both equipment and logistical chains to entities which US dislikes. Turkey qualifies fully for such "treatment" because she increasingly asserts her own interests.
Russia is completely different in this respect. Russians are aware about what Turkey is up to and they have no problem with helping Turkey along her way to Asia greatness and even global relevance. And why not? Turks are striving and will continue to strive for this anyway and trying to arrest this development will merely increase the number of paroxysms and nobody in greater Eurasia really needs or wants that. Islam? Well, that is yet to be seen but one should not also forget that in Turkey Russia is staking a very valuable and voluminous market and hydrocarbons' hub. That, plus Bosporus and Dardanelles, aka Turkish Straits. Russia and her present Black Sea Fleet and what is shaping to be the new edition of 5th Operational Squadron (5 OPESK), not to mention Tartus in Syria, need those. Big, very big politics is involved.
Would Trump sanction Turkey eventually? If he wants to accelerate solidifying Russia and China's positions within Eurasia, sure. But he has to be aware of the fact that this will increasingly shrink both American influence and, inevitably, her market for military toys. Russia, in this respect, knows really well what she is doing--Turkey will need many of those. Many of them already are and will be what neither NATO member, the United States included, can offer. Air Force Times may have their own doubts about SU-57 entering the picture after pretty much (I would assume, I could be wrong, of course--don't take it as a fact yet) settled deal with SU-35s for Turkey, otherwise Rostec's very own Chemezov wouldn't publicly offer them.
It has to be remembered that Erdogan openly spoke recently about not only SU-35s but SU-57s. Will Turkey get her hands on this combat aircraft? We all may discuss all combat virtues and faults of SU-57 whatever we want, but there is very little doubt that today it is the world's premier combat aircraft with unmatched capabilities, which make F-35 look like...ahem...turkey and Russia is putting this technology into series production with contract for the first 76 (three regiments) aircraft for Russian VKS signed just recently. So, Air Force Times needs to update itself. Now, one has to keep in mind Russia's military procurement truism: Russia never offers anything for sale abroad in terms of weapons unless new generation is already in IOC or nearing the conclusion of R&D phase. So, was Erdogan bluffing about S-500? Something tells me that there is a chance he didn't. Obviously not now, but down the road, why not?
Meanwhile, Vladimir Zhirinovsky is Russia's main political clown and once he is gone, his political party (LDPR), essentially a one-man show, will dissolve itself naturally. But as any court jester, Zhirnovsky often speaks the truth, however in a bizarre, caricature form. So, who knows, what Russia has now in works. S-600, 700? Surely, Russia works on something which will follow S-500 which is also now in series production. And that brings us to this issue which I cover ad nauseam--in international relations combination of real military power and fair business is a deadly combination. Real power on the international arena exists ONLY when it rests on a foundation of a REAL military power. Real military power is a combination of factors among which the ability to produce most advanced and effective war machines is a defining feature. No machines--no power. Turks know this damn well. And as in any Asian culture the matter of prestige is of enormous importance. Ignorant filthy-moneyed Gulfie Arabs may have enough money to buy latest Rolls-Royce model or built (or rather pay for) pretty ugly post-modernist skyscrapers but it seems that Turks would rather drive Toyotas and manufacture cutting edge military technology with which they, later, will try to reclaim the glory of a Sublime Porte and for that they need to have more SU-57s and S-500 than Rolls-Royces or Lamborghinis. After all, there is always Aurus, as long as you have a desire to wait in line for couple of years. After all, this, allegedly omnipotent and omnipresent, dude rides in one.
I seldom read Russia's so called "business" media having a very good idea who and how "reports" in them--I do have my own professional reasons to not take opinions of graduates of elite Moscow and St.Pete's humanities universities, working in those media, seriously on any geopolitical and military issue related to world at large in general and Russia in particular. The record of Kommersant, RBC, not to mention all other so called "pro-western" heavily liberal publications, of serving outright lies, recall Saponkov's affair or BS on carbon fiber by this very Kommersant, among many other, so called "cutting edge" (euphemism for Russophobia) media, is "impressive". Yet, even Kommersant couldn't stay silent on this:
Translation:While failing to keep up with Donald Trump's mood changes and trying to figure out if he is going to meet Vladimir Putin in Osaka, everybody oversaw the main sensation. The summit of G-20 in Osaka will see not planned initially meeting of leaders of Russia, China and India. This meeting was initiated by India's Premier Narenda Modi, from who such an initiative was expected least of all... However, before summit of G-20 in Osaka it became clear that (late) Evgenii Primakov's "triangle" wasn't stillborn after all. It is just that this idea is becoming in demand only today. Statements about cooperation of Moscow, Delhi and Beijing being based on commonality of approaches to key issues of global politics in modern realities are stopping to be just empty declarations. In the same time, President Trump's attempts to return the world back into the era of protectionism and Washington's dictate, equally unacceptable for Moscow, Delhi and Beijing, are becoming yet another argument in favor of their rapprochement. As a result, Russia, India and China muster Eurasia for three of them, while the forth--Donald Trump--is redundant here.
Talk about "hitting reality" at a high speed by Kommersant. If they publish such materials, that certainly means that at least some soul-searching is going on. In the end, hey--they are "business" publication for people who like to make money. There is a lot (like really huge sums) of money to be made at India's and China's markets and Russia, sure as hell, has quite a few things to offer from hi-tech, to hydrocarbons and their derivatives, to agriculture. Ah, yes, forgot completely, we are talking about the market with population of more than 5.2 billion. That is around 70% of population of the planet. Well, if Kommersant begins to get it, can you imagine the scale of realignment in geopolitical, economic, cultural, in the end, philosophical, senses unfolding in a front of our eyes. It is unprecedented. It is also not accidental that "suddenly" this pathetic collection of European clowns, also known as Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe wants Russia back with full rights, she was denied after Crimea's return. My position on this issue was and remains consistent: Russia has NO business in this degenerate organization, she should abstain paying a single Ruble to it, and must demand public apology from them for lying about the tragedy of MH-17, which was shot down by Ukrainian banderistas. But, whatever.
Europe in all that is just a business entity for Russia and European modern "culture" should be denied entrance to Russia. Europe can keep her sodomy, pederasty, gender "democracy" and green energy, among other similar perversions, to herself. If Europe, most likely country by country, ever cures herself--then there will be the subject for discussion between nominal Europe and Russia about what the real West is. As per United States, DJT continues to do a swell job in isolating the United States thus making sure that economic collapse may reach catastrophic proportions. But, hey, as long as he is winning, he will stay redundant.
NATO has abandoned
positive agenda in relations with Russia. It does not exist. So far
there are no indications of NATO's knowledge of a way to get out of this
impasse," the official said.
Grushko said that the decision of
the alliance to terminate normal working contacts in the military area
was absurd, because security in Europe largely depends on relations
between Russia and NATO. The alliance has gone too far in exacerbating
confrontation with Russia, he said. See more at http://www.pravdareport.com/news/russia/142349-russia_nato/
This all is another indication of a general trend on West's (in NATO's case--American, the rest of NATO are vassals) confrontation with Russia and Russians really were and are expecting it. As Lavrov stated (in Russian) two days ago, EU is no longer Russia's main trade partner, with most Russia's trade being done in the East. While I wholeheartedly agree with Arctic Fox that Russian-American relations must not become worse, I have to give recognition to the fact that they will. Considering who runs US foreign policy currently there are absolutely no reasons to believe that Trump Administration will behave itself in rational manner. So, it will be same ol' Cold War tune cranked up to "eleven".
As Assange's arrest demonstrates, among many other events, large and small, the attack on what's left of the "free speech" will continue in the West and, in general, revision and even elimination of Western "values" will continue non-stop until the system implodes on itself or unleashes a war. About that is above and this is just the start--the Empire needs military-political success, of any kind, on the international arena. Somehow, looking at the MO of the Empire since 2014 and seeing how it is being run by infantile, and ignorant, narcissists--I doubt anything beneficial can be initiated in this sewer. Is Orwell's world of 1984 possible in the US? We are already partially living in it.