About India.

One of those rare moments when I generally agree with Valdai boys. So, the vector, the thrust of Makarevich's piece is generally correct. 

However, in recent decades, political challenges have been added to the economic challenges of the especially privileged strategic partnership between Russia and India: Moscow, in particular, is concerned about the rapid uptick in relations between Washington and New Delhi. The comprehensive global strategic partnership between India and the US is a logical outcome of the evolution of Indian politics since the 1990s. At the time, the government of Prime Minister Narasimha Rao began a gradual process of economic liberalisation. The country was to become an attractive target for foreign investment, since there was not enough financial capital domestically. The ‘opening up’ of the Indian economy to foreign investors has continued under his successor Narendra Modi – with the ‘Make in India’ initiative inviting foreign manufacturers to locate their production facilities in the South Asian country. A kind of continuation of the this has been the ‘Self-sufficient India’ (Aatmnitbhar Bharat) programme. On the one hand, it is aimed at achieving technological sovereignty, and on the other, it forces foreign manufacturers to localise their production.

But this argument suffers from what is the same problem which is common for the most "observers" and "researchers" in the field of modern geopolitics--discounting power element and the dynamics of the combined West's decline. This is forgivable for all those good ol' boys and girls from largely abstract and shaped by Western influence in study of economics Russia's "academic" circles, due to their lack of understanding of modern West which never goes beyond platitudes and fictional economic data. Yes, India is trying to get "investment" , but this "investment" is already drying up with the center of economic development, finances and technological advancement inexorably moving to the Eastern Eurasia. 

What Makarevich forgets, of course, is the fact that practically whole military establishment of India is influenced to a different degree by Soviet/Russian military views not to mention vast quantities of Russian military hardware. This matters greatly as is the fact of undeniable Russian-Chinese growth closer along military lines. As SMO has demonstrated, the impact on NATO military reputation is devastating--this fact escaped Makarevich and was inevitable, since I am on record--there is no business for people like him, or Karaganov, or anyone from Valdai who do not have serious professional military-intelligence background even trying to factor this issue in their "research". But it MUST be factored, including the fact of India observing the growth of Russian-Chinese military cooperation and, rather very impressive, growth of mutual trade. 

Of course, India has her own, often very divergent from that of Russia, interests to pursue, but with SMO in progress and a manifest inability of West to maintain the edifice of economic prosperity, order and power, we shouldn't expect dramatic shifts in the balance of power in the Indian Ocean because a lot of it rests not just on "investments" but on the ability to maintain military capability worthy of regional superpower. With the US, West in general, as a supplier of such capability it is impossible. But that is the issue for military professionals to discuss. The fact that I still cannot find REAL academic background of this Makarevich guy, except that he is in RAS and is young, tells you a lot.  I will not go into the issue of a major clusterfuck with India buying (in reality--money laundering) French Rafales, but majority of India's AF, Navy and Ground Forces are Russia-made and in geopolitics the only thing which matters is a raw power. In the end, India never caved in to US demands and signed $5 billion contract for S-400. 

Obviously, Makarevich also doesn't understand what this picture means:

As well as why India cannot let go of this: 

But it will take too much time to explain the meaning of all that to Makarevich and what it means in the larger scheme of things, but he will do himself a lot of good by studying details of Operation Trident. Will India become the first recipient of S-500? Questions, questions.

I Could Have Written About...

How Russia sent NATO packing, and rightly so, but when I was about to write how

Russia suspends diplomatic mission to NATO after 'spies' expelled. Russian officials announced Monday that the nation would suspend its diplomatic mission to NATO following NATO's expulsion of eight consecutive Russians for spying, a report said. The staff members at the Western military alliance's Moscow mission are to be divested of their accreditation, and NATO's office in Russia will be shuttered, said Sergey Lavrov, Russia's minister of foreign affairs."If NATO members have any urgent matters, they can contact our ambassador in Belgium on these questions," he added.

I don't know why this hasn't been done earlier but, evidently, even Russians have their limits, when a very dear friend of mine sent me this: 

U.S. Assistant Health Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine became the first openly transgender four-star officer in the uniformed services on Tuesday after she was sworn in as the first female four-star admiral of the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps. The Department of Health and Human Services announced Tuesday that Levine was ceremonially sworn in as a four-star admiral, making her the highest ranking official in the commissioned corps and leading 6,000 Public Health Service officers.

Sergei Viktorovich.... help!!!  

This is beyond surreal. Masha Zakharova spoke about the situation with 80 genders three days ago in Moscow (in Russian). This will not be shown in the West. You know, "free" West with "freedom" of speech and all that. But you know what? Because I am getting tired of talking about primitive one-cell creatures populating D.C., and I mean both on the "left" and on the "right", here is how aesthetics of free people looks like, granted, it is 32 years ago. 

Today, the only thing you can get is...transgender admirals and fugly woke, whatever they are, things which kill any testosterone and drive what's left of the US into the state of a permanent freak show which you have to accept or you will be sent for the attitude adjustment in the labor camps to kill any desire to want a woman, like your wife, you know, because being sexy and desirable is verboten. Like, you know, ask Robert Duvall and George Lucas...

...before Lucas lobotomized and killed the genre of science fiction in less than 12 parsecs... 

In related news, I really like this this piece that came out yesterday--it is very true, David Lynch never made a movie designed for "normal" people, he left that job to George Lucas. That is why Lucas never produced anything of real value after the rape of original Star Wars, while Lynch stunned the world with his work time after time until he reached a pinnacle of cinematography with his Twin Peaks: The Return in 2017. I don't know if anything in modern TV can ever top this--the bar is too high, you need 12 parsecs to top it. 

On Russia And China (Again).

Do you recall this? 

 Or this: 

     Putin’s Shame: Russia Is Becoming China’s Junior Partner. 

Or many other things of similar nature, so you get the gist of propaganda which was pushed for years at Western and, by design, Chinese, Russian and other consumers of Western mass-media sewer and "analysis". While I may disagree (and radically at that) with Andrei Raevsky's (The Saker) definition of Russian-Chinese relations as symbiotic and as double helix, I feel a need to address the latest events in Russian-Chinese relations and namely a stunning revelation by Vladimir Putin that Russia effectively builds a Chinese (SRPN) Missile Attack Early Warning System. But not only that, once one considers WHAT military and civilian technology Russia increasingly begins to offer for export. 

It is an established fact that Chinese economy is about four-five times larger than that of Russia, with Chinese population being 10 times that of Russia. It is also an established fact that Western assessment methods of the actual power of the states are an institutionalized fraud built around dubious at best, deliberate lying at worst, criteria, which are also aggravated with, pardon my French, very shitty so called "intelligence."  So, in order to measure actual power and status of the state one must be able to unify economic, soft and military power much of which rests with what time after time, using numbers and opinions of people of such scale as Sergei Lavrov, always comes down to Corelli Barnett's prophetic: 

 power of the nation-state by no means consist only in its armed forces, but also in its economic and technological resources; in the dexterity, foresight and resolution with which its foreign policy is conducted; in the efficiency of its social and political organization. It consists most of all in the nation itself, the people, their skills, energy, ambition, discipline, initiative; their beliefs, myths and illusions. And it consists, further, in the way all these factors are related to one another.  

In modern world it is the ability to build machines, amazing machines, which counts hugely towards the status and real power. I addressed not for once this issue. Time to address again. Russia produces machines China cannot. Those machines unlike undeniably impressive China's commercial technologies, such as 5G, massive commercial shipbuilding or high-speed trains, directly change global balance of power. Russia has a state-of-the-art system which enhances China's global position dramatically, in fact, in revolutionary way, Russia shares (some of) this system with China--this is unprecedented historically. Chinese know that, they also know that it will be Russian aerospace industry, through joint venture which will produce CR-929 with Russia responsible for wing, center section and PD-35 engines for this aircraft. And, of course, Russia supplying domestic versions of SU-35 and S-400 to China. 

The question which MUST be asked here is not who is "junior" or "senior" partner in this now almost official alliance, but what technologies and machines Russia is NOT exporting to China. Once this issue is pondered, one will stop driving this propaganda BS about Russia being a "junior" partner. This is not how it works and it becomes increasingly clear that it is Russia's technologies which increasingly drive the emerging security arrangement of Eurasia and globally. China, of course, contributes too, not least through mutual cooperation, such as direct investment into Russia and trade. Enough to take a look at some of the massive gigantic cranes at new Russia's monstrous shipyard Zvezda in the Far East, those cranes and control systems were made in China. 

This dated photo merely shows cyclopic Chinese-made cranes, the area today is occupied by the hulls of few new Aframax tankers being built at Zvezda. So, in general, Russian-Chines cooperation, including military one develops extremely well. Obviously, for the combined West which sees the surrounding world only as a place for zero-sum interactions, such a level of relations is simply beyond the grasp. But latest events have shown that "revelation" in terms of Russia's technologies will continue and they will continue to shake and reshape the world in the most profound way. So much for a "junior" partner. So, West's propaganda campaign, against Russian-Chinese relations failed miserably and, in the end, can West provide China with what Russia can--an enhanced security? No, in fact, it becomes increasingly clear that there are no machines in the West which can do that, especially against newly emerging technologies. As, forgive me, I predicted years ago.  

No, Daniel Larison, You Are Wrong Here.

I am talking about Daniel Larison trying to figure out what really drives Trump-Bolton relations. Larison explains US getting into the regional wars' trap this way:

For someone “not playing along,” Trump has obediently given Bolton and the Iran hawks practically everything they have wanted so far. He has gone much further in laying the groundwork for war with Iran than any of his predecessors, and the only reason that many people seem confident that he won’t order an attack is their mistaken belief that he is a non-interventionist when all of the evidence tells us that he is no such thing. Trump presumably doesn’t want to start a multi-year, extremely expensive war that could also throw the economy into a recession, but then every president that launches an illegal war of choice assumes that the war would be much easier and take less time than it does. No one ever knowingly opts for a bloody debacle. The absurdly optimistic hawkish expectations of a quick and easy triumph are always dashed on the rocks of reality, but for some reason political leaders believe these expectations every time because “this time it’s different.” There will come a point where Bolton will tell Trump that attacking Iran (or Venezuela) is the only way to “win,” and Trump will probably listen to him just as he has listened to him on all of these issues up until now.

I disagree--see highlighted in yellow. Larison must ask himself a question--when was the last time POTUS was a man with serious military or intelligence background, not to speak of his national security team? Even when one discounts baneful corrupt influence of Israel and Gulfies' on the US foreign policy, how about we face the fact that in the last 27 years we have one non-stop reshuffling of the lawyers, entrepreneurs, media figures and political pseudo-scientists at the American political top and national security apparatus. Being former Attorney General or a journo does not qualify one for expressing competent opinions on the issues of real warfare or serious intelligence matters. US political top and decision makers are utterly ignorant and uneducated in these matters as are in actual practical geopolitics once one considers a disastrously pathetic level of geopolitical thought in the US in the last 30 years--no wonder, it was written by people who saw explosions on TV screen only. In other words, most people in US elites from POTUS position down lack every single quality imperative for running such a country as the United States or any other superpower. These are the real, not "some", reasons for "absurdly optimistic hawkish expectations"--ignorance. There is absolutely no mystery about it by anyone with even rudimentary knowledge of what real war is.

I know, it is a painful realization, but that is what one gets when electing a kindergarten to run a nation, which has NO real life experience with war and is absolutely confused by a real state of the affairs inside and outside its borders. I know, it is insulting to recognize that all those allegedly high IQ people in legislature, media and executive are not very bright and are not fit to offer any opinions on any issues related to real national security. This also explains not just forced but truly admired by many in US  Israel's military "accomplishments"--it is easy to BS the Sect of Desert Storm Witnesses. But in the end, one has to ask this simple question--how all those, primarily humanities and social studies "educated", people constituting US political class can possibly think other than "this time is different"? They can not--they simply lack appropriate instruments, a cognitive apparatus, which require many years of study, practice, including in operational zones, and study again, especially when it goes for operational and strategic planning level. Without these instruments everything related to warfare in US is reduced to doctrine-mongering and ROI, and Hollywood. Real war? Forget it, after all these will be those deplorables who will be sent to die in some God-forsaken locality, while serving as mass murder instruments of an Empire which has no clue. 

I am forced to use words of Russian intelligence professional Andrei Bezrukov:

What is THEIR weakness? As enemies these guys are mediocrities, second rate. They overate. Their previous generation was stronger. They respected us, we respected them. We don't respect these ones,they didn't deserve it. They can bully, as for the real fight--we'll see about that... They are enraged that soon they will have to live within their means.They forgot how to do so long time ago. That is why they want to solve a problem with us now, while others are still afraid of them. 

I can only clarify Bezrukov--mediocrity is too noble a term to describe those who run this pathetic (and dangerous) spectacle. I wonder if Daniel Larison understands this.  

This Was Expected.

As most Russian news media report today:

"NATO has abandoned positive agenda in relations with Russia. It does not exist. So far there are no indications of NATO's knowledge of a way to get out of this impasse," the official said. Grushko said that the decision of the alliance to terminate normal working contacts in the military area was absurd, because security in Europe largely depends on relations between Russia and NATO. The alliance has gone too far in exacerbating confrontation with Russia, he said.

NATO has abandoned positive agenda in relations with Russia. It does not exist. So far there are no indications of NATO's knowledge of a way to get out of this impasse," the official said.
Grushko said that the decision of the alliance to terminate normal working contacts in the military area was absurd, because security in Europe largely depends on relations between Russia and NATO. The alliance has gone too far in exacerbating confrontation with Russia, he said.

See more at http://www.pravdareport.com/news/russia/142349-russia_nato/

This all is another indication of a general trend on West's (in NATO's case--American, the rest of NATO are vassals) confrontation with Russia and Russians really were and are expecting it. As Lavrov stated (in Russian) two days ago, EU is no longer Russia's main trade partner, with most Russia's trade being done in the East. While I wholeheartedly agree with Arctic Fox that Russian-American relations must not become worse, I have to give recognition to the fact that they will. Considering who runs US foreign policy currently there are absolutely no reasons to believe that Trump Administration will behave itself in rational manner. So, it will be same ol' Cold War tune cranked up to "eleven". 

As Assange's arrest demonstrates, among many other events, large and small, the attack on what's left of the "free speech" will continue in the West and, in general, revision and even elimination of Western "values" will continue non-stop until the system implodes on itself or unleashes a war. About that is above and this is just the start--the Empire needs military-political success, of any kind, on the international arena. Somehow, looking at the MO of the Empire since 2014 and seeing how it is being run by infantile, and ignorant, narcissists--I doubt anything beneficial can be initiated in this sewer. Is Orwell's world of 1984 possible in the US? We are already partially living in it.

You Reap What You Sow.

Saudi Arabia's Asharq Al-Awsat reports today (Google does a decent job translating from Arabic):

وأكدت المصادر أن إسرائيل نفذت فقط غارتين جويتين على سوريا بعد تلك الحادثة، بتنسيق مع القوات الروسية. وفي كل مرة، كان الروس يبدون تبرمهم من هذا النوع من العمليات. والمعروف أن حكومة بنيامين نتنياهو فشلت حتى الآن في تسوية الخلافات مع موسكو. فالرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين صد مطالب نتنياهو للقائه على الأراضي الروسية طيلة الشهرين الفائتين. وعندما وافق على لقاء نتنياهو في باريس، الأسبوع الماضي، خلال حفل عشاء ضمن الاحتفالات بذكرى مائة سنة على الحرب العالمية الأولى، أصر على أن يكون اللقاء قصيراً (ربع ساعة) ومقتضباً، وذلك بعد جهود إسرائيلية وأميركية كثيرة مع موسكو. ومع أن نتنياهو اعتبره لقاءً مهماً ومفيداً، فإن بوتين اعتبره لقاءً عابراً، مؤكداً أنه من غير المرجح أن يلتقي معه مرة أخرى في المستقبل المنظور. وتبين من تقرير داخلي في المؤسسة الأمنية في تل أبيب أن «روسيا أوضحت لإسرائيل بطرق مختلفة أن الوضع الذي كان قائماً في السابق قد انتهى، لأن عمليات تل أبيب في سوريا تضر بمشروع موسكو الأساسي في المنطقة، أي استعادة الحكومة السورية سيطرتها على معظم أراضي البلاد، لضمان مصالح روسيا الاقتصادية والأمنية في سوريا. وهي تستغل حادثة الطائرة بكل قسوة لتحقيق أهدافها». وأكد التقرير أن الجانب الروسي بدأ يستخدم لهجة صارمة، تتسم بعض الأحيان بفظاظة، في اتصالات التنسيق مع العسكريين الإسرائيليين عبر ما يسمى «الخط الساخن»، الخاص بمنع وقوع الحوادث 

Translation: The sources confirmed that Israel carried out only two air raids on Syria after that incident, in coordination with Russian forces. Each time, the Russians began to sign these kinds of operations. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu has so far failed to settle differences with Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin blocked Netanyahu's demands to meet him on Russian territory for the past two months. When he agreed to meet with Netanyahu in Paris last week at a gala dinner marking the 100th anniversary of the First World War, he insisted that the meeting should be short (one-quarter of an hour) and brief, following many Israeli and American efforts with Moscow. Although Netanyahu considered it an important and useful meeting, Putin considered it a passing meeting, asserting that he is unlikely to meet with him again in the foreseeable future. "Russia has made it clear to Israel in different ways that the situation that existed in the past is over, because the Tel Aviv operations in Syria are harming Moscow's basic project in the region, that is, the restoration of the Syrian government's control over most of the country's territory, To ensure Russia's economic and security interests in Syria. It is taking advantage of the aircraft incident with all its cruelty to achieve its goals. " The report said that the Russian side began to use a strict tone, sometimes crude, in coordination contacts with the Israeli military through the so-called hotline, the prevention of accidents in Syria, between the parties.

This report comes on the heels of my publisher sending me yesterday a link to Bernhard's (MOA) excellent piece on Israel, which I read by then anyway. But Asharq Al-Awsat reports also on a significant increase of the sorties by Russian VKS' aircraft in Syrian air space and all this fits perfectly the pattern which I (well, forgive me, but can I feed my ego at least once in a while?) predicted within hours of IL-20s tragedy. This brings up this ever important issue (and I will soon resume my Russia's Non-Jewish History series of posts) of true influence of alleged Jewish (Israeli) lobby on Russia. As I already stated not for once, Russia's foreign and defense policies are immune to any kind of influences which contradict Russia's crucial national interests. Russia is interested in stable and secure Israel but not at the expense of own strategic interests. For sure, Israel has her own legitimate security concerns but the main question is what is the extent of this legitimacy? I don't know, I am not a specialist in the region, but the issue of new settlements and, inevitably, of Golan Heights will come up once Syria recovers most of her territory and will start in earnest postbellum restoration. 

Theoretically, Russia can guarantee Israel's survival but it will come with a lofty price tag. Obviously, for Israeli and American Likudniks (neocons, Israeli-firsters, what have you), who got used to kick US Congress around any way they want, such a disposition where they have to actually listen and not talk is huge humiliation, but, I hope, even most delusional Zionists both within Israel and US power structures, must recognize that Russia does have many strategic options, they--don't. As Asharq Al-Awsat reports:

 كشفت مصادر سياسية في تل أبيب أن القيادة العسكرية الإسرائيلية تبدي قلقاً من فشل القيادة السياسية في تسوية الأزمة القائمة مع روسيا في الشهرين الفائتين، منذ سقوط طائرة التجسس «إيل - 20» في 17 سبتمبر (أيلول) الماضي. وتقول إن استمرار هذه الأزمة يتسبب في تناقض مصالح مع روسيا، وبات يضيق على إسرائيل في خياراتها القتالية ضد الوجود الإيراني في سوريا، وحتى ضد نشاط «حزب الله» في لبنان.

Translation: Political sources in Tel Aviv revealed that the Israeli military leadership is concerned about the failure of the political leadership to resolve the crisis with Russia in the past two months, since the fall of the spy plane "El - 20" on 17 September. She says that the continuation of this crisis is causing a conflict of interests with Russia, and is narrowing Israel's choice of combat against the Iranian presence in Syria, and even against the activity of "Hezbollah" in Lebanon. 

The name of the "crisis", of course, are two (or three--who knows how many) battalions of S-300PMU2 Favorit and the evolution of this whole situation could serve as a classic example of the  Force In Being translating into tangible (geo)political results. Russia really wanted to work with Israel but Israel, obviously, grossly overestimated own capabilities, especially against the background of gross underestimation  of Russian ones--a scenario replayed constantly in the US which still remains enamored with Israel's military "achievements" against traditionally weak Arab military and para-military formations. Things are  changing, though. I will go out on a limb here and speculate that Syrian Arab Army's prestige among Arabs is extremely high, as is prestige of Hafez al-Assad, who defied Israel, international Jihad, Turkey and NATO. Syria IS emerging as a pivotal state of Arab secular nationalism whether intentionally or not--but it is the fact of life. Read MOA's review on some indications of that. Long term geopolitical, economic and cultural ramifications of that for the region are immense and Russia is only happy to benefit from that, apart from satisfaction from playing a key role in saving the last secular Arab state. Just one small fact: 

 SCAC signs the LOI with Alexcina LLC/15.11.2018

One may argue, justifiably, that this is so far only LOI--sure, but the breakthrough for Russian civilian aircraft into rich Gulfies' market is a good sign, considering the fact that Russian weapons there are in high demand and Qatar and Saudis are really interested on getting their hands on S-400s. For Arabs, in general, the fact of containment of Israel is huge and it matters that Israel was contained by Russian weapons. Israel has only herself to blame for finding herself in such a conundrum but, and this is my profound conviction, Israel got used to beating on weak and exerting an immense influence on the United States internally so much, that she simply forgot that Russia is not the United States and it is inconceivable to have THIS in Russia, in the US--it is a normal occurrence. And that is the difference Israel should understand and the faster she does it, the better it will be for all parties involved. In the end, you reap what you sow.