Sunday, November 29, 2015

Military Power.

Oh goody, and why am I doing this? But, but, as was promised, I will start slowly to go at this, oh ever so important, issue of military power. The last straw, which broke camel's back was this "discussion", as well as the post itself, in Anatoly Karlin's blog at UNZ Review. 

Considering the times in which I write this, it seems that this time is as good as any for starting to look at this most popular item on all kinds of military and foreign policy forums and blogs--yes, penis measuring contest and pseudo-scientific BS which is being regurgitated all over the world wide web. Even before we start, two things MUST be made very clear: when speaking about military power and before getting into this bizarre world of Osipov-Lanchester differential equations, salvo models, Operations Theory, strategies, GNPs, weapons and all other juicy mental and faux-patriotism masturbatory toys, these two very simple things are: 

Thing (Question) One: WHAT FOR military power. It is a potential energy, or capability, or military doctrine, or historical experience, or policy or, rather, all those things combined, which define the utility of the military power. It is also the question of culture.

Thing (Question) Two: HOW TO use this military power within the framework which is created once the Question One is answered. This Thing is the kinetic embodiment of the Thing One. You remember, of course, from basic physics, that two types of energy are inter-transformable. This is the world of fighting doctrines, of technological and operational dimensions of a war, it is also the field which is so popular (for all the wrong reasons) on the web-resources of which I spoke above. 

The issue of military power could have been settled easily for anyone who shares (I surely do) Correlli Barnett's definition of the national power:


And, military power being a function of a national power, Barnett's definition could have been easily reworded for military power and I may yet do that. But the problem here is that of assessing military power, and giving it some "index", or "number", or "coefficient" or anything what makes sense for all those penis-measuring competitors. Well, here I come out of the closet and state it openly--it is impossible for simple two things--see them above in this post and  they are named Thing One and Thing two. So, before going into Formal Models Of Capabilities and Salvo Equations we, indeed, MUST ask ourselves the question: why do we need military power, what for? Any discussion of, assessment, or quantification  of military power without answering this question is a fraud, unscientific and irrelevant to the reality. 

Here is a great example of appropriate "What For" thinking in Admiral Stansfield Turner's 1976 interview to Christian Science Monitor. He beautifully gives the range of things to consider when comparing Soviet and US Navies. 

 So, let's answer this question of what for in general:

Military power is needed to defend the interests of the owner of this power. 

Here is a conundrum, what interests? And that is where the military doctrine of the entity (usually, state) building its military power comes forth. Military Doctrine is the SYSTEM OF VIEWS of the state on the building and use of its armed forces. Military doctrines differ, drastically. Enough to take a look at present day Russia and US. The former's main national interest is the defense of its state and is explicitly defensive, the latter--well, it is explicitly expansionist and expeditionary. So, whose military power is larger? Russia is manifestly non-interventionist state (we'll discuss Syria separately) and, in fact, does not posses military power to intervene globally, beyond the fairly limited sphere of its interests. The good ol' USA, however,  tries to hone its military power almost exclusively as interventionist. Is US military power larger in this respect than that of Russia? Absolutely. In fact, on the order of magnitude. But here is the catch, unlike the US, Russia IS NOT interested in this capability and is not intent in competing with the US in this field. Russia is not planning ground (amphibious) assault on US territory, she also has no contingency plans for combined arms warfare operations around Chicago or Boston. Russians, generally, do not live in the fantasy world when it comes to military. US, on the other hand, while being the backbone of NATO, DOES have contingency planning on not just bombing Russia into oblivion (Russia does have same contingency plans for US) but also on amphibious assaults and combined arms operations within Russia.   

So, we start with the doctrine(s). There is no other way to approach the assessment and quantification of military power. In this case, the Composite Index Of National Capability (CINC) may come really handy but even here we have to keep in mind what Stephen Biddle calls "empirical anomalies". 

To be continued........

Friday, November 27, 2015

Payback Time

This is how the start of the payback looks like and Turkish operatives (and units) operating in the border, so called Turkmen (NO relation whatsoever to Turkmenistan, former Soviet Republic) areas, should take a note. Those who survived. 

 Now to the subject matter:

1. Judging by the erratic, bordering on outright hysteria, filled with blatant lies and contradictions, statements by Erdogan in the last 72 hours (I wonder if Davutoglu is already seeing himself as a De-jure, not just De-facto, caliph), the process of facing the gravity of the Turkish provocation has began, sort of, in Ankara. The first indication is the fact that "suddenly" Turkish "heroic" Air Force realized the difference between Turkish and Syrian air space. And in Turkish air space it should remain if it doesn't want to really become "martyrs". Needless to say, that most of the statements coming from Erdogan are, traditionally, filled with characteristic for the area poetic hyperbole, exaggerations and...well...BS. Anything to evoke any response from Putin. Good luck with that.   

2. Now to a stinky business. All those, predominantly Western media, which propagated the so called Turkish record of "warnings" to Russian SU-24 were propagating....drum roll...a complete BS.  Russian military attache in Ankara did visit Turkey's General Staff to obtain any materials re: Turkish cowardly action and was told that NO such materials exist. I stated many times, I will reiterate again--West DOES NOT have respected media other than some independent (and mostly fringe) outlets and all those "journalists" and "experts" from HuffPro, FOX, CNN or WaPo (and NYT) should concentrate on what they are only qualified for--reporting on Hollywood starlets' lingerie, LGBT issues, maybe criminal issues and, of course, sucking cock of their masters. The vaunted "free speech" is DEAD. Today it is nothing more than propaganda and gossip. 

3. As was predicted, nothing of substance came out of Hollande's visit to Moscow. Of course, there were smiles and promises of "tight" cooperation but, as I already stated many times, France does not have subjectivity in foreign policy. Once proud nation is a toy and the only role Hollande can play here is that of a messenger. Until big boys settle some key issues, nothing will come out of this vaunted "coalition". Obama's fragile ego and detachment from the reality, coupled with his Administration's infestation with neocon psychopaths, prevents any possibility of any settlement. Russia remains the main factor and burden carrier in fighting ISIS. Yet, France still may play an important role if the question of the ground force will arise seriously. As of now, however, this issue remains, as it should, on the back-burner for a number of reasons:

a) ISIS in itself is not some magical awesome fighting force. Depending on the possible deployment configuration of the ground troops and with Russia's and NATO's air power preponderance, the task of crushing ISIS as military force is not that difficult. Mopping up could, indeed, be left to Syrian Army and Iranians. It is a matter of a logistics and that is where Turkey enters the equation.

b) Will Turkey stay out? Judging by the latest developments it is run by lunatics and in this case Turkey's sabotage or even entrance into the war on ISIS behalf can change the calculus completely. Is Turkey (rather Erdogan's regime) capable of suicide? Absolutely.

c) Bashar Assad. He should have been listed under the pp. "a". Russia is not going to betray its ally, so, make your calculations. This juncture automatically leads us into the much larger framework of global power realignment and the way US currently sees itself. The way US sees itself is distorted to such a degree that this vision prevents the US from properly forecasting or anticipating just about any move by anybody. The proof of that is in the open since 2008. Well, actually, since 2003. Chalabi syndrome afflicted US elites too seriously to be resolved by the present generation of American politicians. With minor exceptions, current American power elites ARE NOT treaty-worthy.  

Finally. Can Russia and Turkey clash? Yes, they can. But now I am not going to speculate on this issue. I am more interested in the possible number of 671RTMK submarines on combat patrol in Mediterranean;-)


Thursday, November 26, 2015

No Fly Zone

The S-400 Triumph Air Defense complex is already deployed in Syria. This is the first step in achieving a genuine no-fly zone over Syria and a clear message to Turkey (and some other "members" of the so called "coalition") to think twice before doing stupid things. Basically, with RKR Moskva "anchored" around Latakia and S-400 already in combat mode, we are talking about very serious coverage, including deep inside Turkey's territory. 

Judging by today's Erdogan's hysteria, it is possible that he may, indeed, have decided to commit this crime on his own and now knows that he got burned. It is now up to NATO (read: USA) to decide if it wants to be associated further with such a "partner". But then again, judging by the backgrounds of US "allies" such as terrorists states of Saudi Arabia or Qatar, and Obama's detached from the reality narcissistic view of himself and his Muslim "friends", nothing should come as a surprise. In the end, Obama's Administration is heavily infected with the neocon filth and they, not Obama, really make decisions on foreign policy. 

It is clear now, that Russia is in close communications with Syrian Kurd forces and is in the process of closing most Turkish-Russian economic relations. This will hurt, big time. This and, of course, at some point of time some "accidental" Turkish Air Force venturing into the Syrian airspace may result in Turkey losing one of her aircraft. 

Meanwhile, it is Thursday and it is Thanksgiving Day. To all my American good friends, colleagues and simply decent, hard working American folks--Happy Thanksgiving. And yes, I'll eat turkey today. 

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Few Short Thoughts On Turkey Shoot.

Each time I try to write on military power, something happens. Something happened today. I will abstain from regurgitation of media points re: downed Russian SU-24 and deceased Russian marine--my thoughts and prayers, if this could be called such in atheist, with them and their loved ones. Now to the subject matter:

1. No WW III. At least not yet. 
2. Turkey's behavior in first hours after shooting down Russian plane is a behavior of a coward (which is not surprising)--instead of establishing urgent connection with Russian General Staff they "disappeared" and later popped up already on the NATO Council. Very typical of the jackals and their masters. It is also very typical of people from that region--doing something irrational and hysterical and then trying to find a posse which will cover their ass, after realization comes of doing a very very naughty thing. Especially, against wrong people.
3. If anyone had any doubts about Turkey being a supporter of Islamic terrorism, well, NATO should be "proud" of having such an "honorable" members in their midst, but then again, the biggest NATO honcho seems to be in business of propping up radical Islam for the last 35 years. A "stellar" record, really. No surprise here.
4. Turkish Air Force (and Turkish General Staff) as of now have gained themselves a very attentive followers in form of Russian Air-Space Troops and, no doubt, some other unspecified organizations which usually do not advertise their activities. So.....for now.
5. No more Russian tourists (except for the Russian white trash sluts, but those can remain in Turkey forever) for Turkish poisonous moonshine, which passes as a legitimate alcohol, and for Turkish "5 stars" hotels and "resorts".
6. Good lesson for Putin. Will he start cleaning Russia's house about starting from his liberal buddy Medvedev and economic block which is incompatible with Russia's national interests? Why? Because.....
7. Things will get even dicier in coming months. After all, some Kurd (not all) factions need to suddenly gain some substantial air defense and attack capabilities.
8. Things will get even more dicier in Ukraine. 
9. Restoration of the 5th Operational Squadron (5th OPESK) suddenly moves into the very-very urgent category. 
10. In general, rearmament program needs boosting (albeit it is progressing apace), with X-101s and Kalibrs arriving in even larger quantities. 
11. In general, real economy must go in overdrive--this is what Russian society overwhelmingly is ready for and was calling for years now. 

And yes, when this Washington puppet Hollande arrives to Moscow, please, Putin, remind him of France's "trust credit rating" which is zero. They are not there to fight terrorism. All of them ARE enablers of terrorism, either consciously or not. 

It is a war and there will be Russian casualties--this is NOTHING new for Russia. It seems, judging by the first reactions, Russia and Russians are ready.

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Russian Lives Matter

For any Western (European?) "scholar" who ever bothered to seriously (I underscore--seriously) study Russia's modern history and Russian national character (together with Bernard Pares and George F. Kennan this amounts to about....several people)  it could have become very clear that Russians do not cry. Well, they do, but after they cried their eyes dry, they get even, or just go overkill. Russia and Russians (whoever they are) are a concentrated embodiment of Clausewitzian dictum that :

"In war the result is never final. Lastly, even the ultimate outcome of a war is not always to be regarded as final." (c) 

Carl Von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege.  

Now, that the emotional high after Paris terrorist acts receded somewhat it makes sense to remember those other 224 innocent Russian citizens (judging by the names' list--mostly Slavic with some possible Tartars and North Caucasus names) who lost their lives in the Metrojet A-321 crash in Egypt as a result of terrorist act. Russians paid the dues when they sent high explosive messages to IS in Syria by stating the reason for those rather deadly deliveries--"For our people" and "For Paris". 

Russia pounds IS jihadists with 'For Paris' bombs 

Western media's dirty insinuations, what is new, that it was nothing more than Russia's PR which pursued softening of the "West's" economic  sanctions ensued. This, by now, is typical. Evidently the thought of Russia having a genuine interest in demolishing "West"-sponsored ISIS and truly getting even is somehow lost on all those presstitudes and even if it didn't--don't expect recognition of it. For now the "West's" media machine is in overdrive trying to control image and actual political damage to its "elites". Evidently, this media sewer forgot how NATO "warriors" "greeted" Orthodox Christian Serbs in 1999 during Easter by writing a despicable "greetings" on their bombs

For Serbs on Easter Sunday, Bombs and Blessings 

Needless to say, anti-Serb and anti-Russian bacchanalia then (and today) was a product of those same urbanized 1968 Parisian a-holes who today watch in dismay on how their chickens came home to roost. And that is my point.
Do not expect any change in contemporary "West's elites" MO. Sure, there will be a lot of rhetoric about lofty goals, and revenge and, "democracy", and ideals, and even Marine Nationale will have its field day....but...but. It was France, USA and their pathetic minions who enabled the "Arab Spring" and, eventually, brought ISIS to power and they will do very little to face the problem and tragedy of their own making. They can not--they ARE the problem. That is why, the main burden of stopping IS(IS), Daesh, what have you, falls on Russia's shoulders. "Western elites" who are responsible for lighting up Middle East on fire and nurturing Jihad as early as 1980--they are still in place, so is their media machine and brainwashed "public opinion".  Expecting any real effort in solving what today is the deadly virus killing  European Civilization? Forget it, the descent to hell is in full progress. 
As for Russians. The fight continues. It will continue as it is always the case for Russia and, who knows, in the end, the appearance of Ivanovo and Pskov divisions in the skies over Syria can mark the final point in the mayhem. Will it be another "Afghanistan"? Well, the problem here is that Soviet-Afghan War in the "West" is known mostly through Rambo movies and that is why it is mostly a propaganda cliche. Sure, let's say that it will be another Afghanistan. 

 Meanwhile, Russia is getting even, after she cried her eyes dry and observes how "West" cries it a river. 


Saturday, November 14, 2015

France, Wake Up!!

I could have written a lot but I don't want to, at least not for now--I will, very soon. Let now lowlifes, like war criminal Amanpour, or bimbos from Fox, together with their army of incompetent "experts", dominate narrative--their time is running out anyway. My heart today is with people of France and I mean FRENCH people, yes, those white European FRENCH people, who speak French, who sing Marseillaise and it lifts their spirits. I talk about heirs of Charles Martel and Charles de Gaulle, people for whom those names mean a lot. I talk about people who still care about their culture and want to preserve it. People of France, PARIS--my heart is with you and I know we will have to fight. 

J'ACCUSE: traitorous so called "Western" (in reality anti-western) power "elites", French, American, German, what have you--people who are responsible for allowing, nay--inspiring, the rise of "multiculturalism", which led to a Europe becoming a gypsy tabor and jihad-infested cluster of mosques. You and you prostitute so called "academe" and media are responsible for what is happening today in Middle East and now in Paris. You, condemned and cowardly "social justice warriors",   will answer for the downfall of European (I don't want to use term "Western" anymore) civilization but it will be later. For now, my heart is with FRENCH people. 

Marine, it is your Jeanne D'Arc moment!!