Turkish Hurriyet Dropped ...

 ... a massive bullshit bomb yesterday that Turkey is ... selling her S-400 to Qatar, LOL)) Well, Mr. Fidan, Turkey's Foreign Minister, was forced today to explain things.

It is from the same opera as Trump "giving" a license to produce Patriot missiles to 404. Trump cannot do that (apart from the absurdity of this whole Kabuki theater), neither can Turkey sell S-400 without explicit permission from Russia. Some in Turkey are so desperate to get F-35s, LOL). 

Yes, About The Address ...

 ... by the guy who is now both political corpse and a clown. Larry explains. 

Wow! That was awful. Was Trump sedated? His monotone, delusional delivery reminded me of the character Dustin Hoffman played in Rainman. Trump plowed no new territory. Instead, he provided a Reader’s Digest summary of his recent Truth Social posts… i.e., Iran is defeated, the Iranian Navy and Air Force are destroyed, victory is ours, but we’re going to bomb the hell out of them over the next three weeks. I am pretty sure that some on Wall Street will continue to delude themselves with the belief that this war is nearing an end and, once Trump declares the final victory in three weeks that he will order US troops to come home and the war will be over. Not a chance. During the next three weeks, Iran will continue to degrade and demolish the US bases and equipment that is in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. As long as Qatar does not allow combat aircraft to take off from Al Udeid, Iran will ignore it. Prior to his speech, the market for oil futures had dropped significantly, with both WTI and BRENT falling below 100. After his speech, both surged back above 100, increasing 3.5% and 4.4% respectively. Trump’s speech failed to reassure the oil markets that the war would end anytime soon.

Again, keep in mind--all this is about paper energy (futures), which is nothing but speculation. Trump's (and the courterie of his sycophants and Zionists in administration) idea of governance is that of self-aggrandizing and enriching, serving Israel and trying to manipulate the so called "markets". 

As you can see current "market"--it is not impressed. 

Neither are Iranians, pummeling Bahrain and the US 5th Fleet's HQs non-stop.

Meanwhile, India gets five more S-400 batteries. 

The S-400 deliveries are late, but the fifth and final system is also expected this year, perhaps in November. After the S-400’s impressive performance during Operation Sindoor, the four days of fighting with Pakistan in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack last year, India has decided to buy five more systems. The S-400 could be part of the countrywide air defence system, Sudarshan Chakra, that will be in place in coming years.

You see, those S-400, for some reason (wink, wink), do perform brilliantly in REAL combat. Who would have thought, if you know what I mean. 

A Bit More On Mach Velocities ...

... and NATO (and 404) air defense systems. Before, though. Keep in mind that Patriot PAC3 main missiles used in 404 are MIM-104 D/E and possibly MIM-104F--the most advanced missile Patriot has whose velocity, unlike it is the case with MIM-104 D/E is "unknown", but in reality is the same as for MIM-104 D/E which is Mach=3.5. Mach=3.5 translates into roughly 1.2 kilometers per second and it is critical to understand why this news is absolutely astounding. Here is a famous (granted imprecise) graphics with capabilities comparison. 

We also know that S-400's long range missile 40N6E is capable of shooting down targets with the velocities of M=14, which would imply ballistic targets, while aerodynamic M=3.5 such as said MIM-104F represent pretty standard target for S-300 and C-400 family. What IS the REAL, not export variant and fanboys' "data" velocities for both 40N6E (1, 2, 3 etc.) and 48N6 which would be the culprits in shooting down Patriot's missiles, it is M=5.9 and above. How much exactly? Way above. Here is a scheme of probable deployment of S-400s at the front. 

Add here A-50s and their coverage of the front and you will get the idea of how this all happens. Keep in mind that the distance of the deployed S-300s and S-400s from the line of the combat contact is around 50 (give and take) kilometers. 

Recall how both S-300s and S-400s wiped the remnants of the 404 Air Force off the skies while allowing Russian Air Force operate safely at the echelons which provide a necessary altitude for the use of increasingly long-range FABs with UMPKs while operating even within the possible ranges of detection and firing of Patriot PAC3s. But in the end, apart from this impact, reality for the crème de la crème of NATO's AD is very sad--the moment any of those Patriots, SAMP-Ts or Iris with NASAMS turn on their radar--that's pretty much it for them, but a completely different algorithm of search kicks in and those ADs do not live long even if they managed to launch and escape (for now). Remember probability density? 

The proof of this working brilliantly is this:

The last remaining NATO AD complexes, like this IRIS-T a few days back, being wiped out and AAA remaining the only option for utterly destroyed NATO and 404 AD system. I wonder, if those operational quantum computers Vladimir Putin talked about three days ago have a "hand" in SMO? Hm, something tells me they do have, a big one and you know, Russians do not like to use their models in Garbage In--Garbage Out (GIGO) mode. That's why Russians win wars. Per breaking encryption and using quantum computational (immense) capabilities for geopolitical forecasting? You can bet your ass on that being done. 

Some Facts About ...

 ... Russian AD complexes which should be considered--from the Armaments' Expo in Belarus:

Если уж речь зашла о специальной военной операции, то вот еще одна интересная подробность: С-400 – пока единственная в мире зенитная ракетная система, имеющая в своем активе сбитые (в реальном бою, а не на испытаниях) ракеты-перехватчики западных ЗРК/ЗРС, идущих на близких к гиперзвуковым скоростям – причем, в первую очередь, речь идет о широко распиаренных американских комплексах Patriot PAC-3. Причем таких боевых эпизодов насчитывается уже более десяти.

Translation: If we are talking about a special military operation, here is another interesting detail: the S-400 is the only anti-aircraft missile system in the world that has shot down (in real combat, not during tests) interceptor missiles of Western SAM/SAM systems flying at speeds close to hypersonic - and, first of all, we are talking about the widely hyped American Patriot PAC-3 systems. Moreover, there are already more than ten such combat episodes.

If anybody wonders, SAMs are the fastest missiles in NATO's arsenal capable of speeds approaching hypersonic ones (just under M=5) for a short time of intercept. S-400 now shoots down in combat US air defense missiles.

Meanwhile, Israel is slowly turning into 404.

But then again, it does begin to look increasingly like 404, especially after having its elite intel/recon units wiped out. Next thing--TTzK. Meanwhile, Kiev and the rest of 404 today.

This Is Hilarious.

 How desperate one should be: 

Turkey’s Russian Missiles Could Defend Ukraine. A way to solve the dispute between Washington and Ankara and do poetic justice in the process.

Here is the guy who wrote this.

Mr. Paul Kolbe is the Director of the Intelligence Project at the Belfer Center. Paul served for 25 years in the CIA’s Directorate of Operations in a variety of foreign and domestic roles, including as Chief of Station, Chief/Central Eurasia Division, and Balkans Group Chief. His overseas assignments included operational and leadership roles in the former Soviet Union, the Balkans, Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, and Central Europe. He was a member of the Senior Intelligence Service and is a recipient of the Intelligence Medal of Merit and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal.

So, this might explain the level of "expertise" in the US "intelligence community" and also explain why the US cannot win its wars. I am sure Mr. Kolbe heard about OODA Loop and about situational awareness, after all he was in CIA and they train them to be "aware", right? One can only hope. In related news, Mr. Kolbe should take a basic course in the Air Defense, what it is and how it evolved over the years. Basic course in operations and physics would be nice too. Nah, I am being facetious.

P.S. You can listen to much of Kolbe's delirium for free--the player is above the article.

I Am Lying, Therefore I Am Living(c).

US' MO, ranging from government to media, is lying . Here is yet another, latest, example. 

HELSINKI — The top U.S. negotiator in nuclear arms control talks with Russia held in Helsinki says a one-day follow-up meeting to earlier talks in Austria has yielded “important progress.” Ambassador Marshall Billingslea, President Donald Trump’s special envoy for arms control, gave the upbeat view in a tweet Tuesday, a day after the talks in the Finnish capital with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. He gave no further detail. 

Russians like, WTF, dude...

 "Действительно, пока повода для оптимизма практически нет. Наш замминистра иностранных дел [Сергей] Рябков продолжает контакты со своими визави американскими. Нам хотелось бы, чтобы результативность этих контактов была выше, значительно. Здесь есть большие резервы"

Translation: Indeed, there is practically no reason for optimism. Our Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov continues his contacts with Americans. We would like to see the effectiveness of these contacts to be higher, considerably higher. There is a big potential (reserves) here.  

Ryabkov himself stated that he doesn't know: "based on what does American side make statements on soon to be achieved agreement on arms control?"  Lie, it seems, permeates whole American political, cultural, media, scientific, economic, foreign policy discourse. American politicians, journalists, "scientists", analysts, diplomats, military lie non-stop, about everything, under any circumstances. They lie, only to have their their lies debunked immediately, to their faces, but they continue to lie, looking into the eyes of people who know absolutely that they are being lied to. There is nothing real left in America anymore, everything is an illusion, a pretense of a functioning society, economy, political establishment. And everybody lies, including "scientists" (as was demonstrated in my post yesterday). It is bizarre, it is worse than in USSR, it begins to approach levels of brainwashing of Maoist China or North Korea. 

I said it many times, I will repeat again, Russia IS NOT negotiating those "ineffective", "improbable", "non-existent" weapon systems which the United States desperately tries to get its hands on. Russia (USSR) trusted the West in late 1980s only to be lied to and cheated. Russians are good students. The United States is non-agreement capable, Marshal Billingslea is laughed at in Russia as if being a clown (clown craft requires better skills than those of US "diplomats"). The next step, after October 18, a formal expiration of UN arms embargo on Iran:

In an interview with Iran’s Resalat newspaper on Sunday, Russia’s ambassador to the country, Levan Jagarian, affirmed that he would have “no problem” selling the air defense systems as soon as the United Nations arms embargo on Iran expires Oct. 18.   

It seems the decision has been made in Kremlin, since Jagarian's statement is merely a corroboration of what Lavrov stated earlier this week that once arms embargo expires on 18th, well, it will not be just S-400. Of course, SU-30SM(2) are on the shopping list as well as such items as russified SSJ-100 New, and other items which Iran desperately needs. As I already stated, Russia doesn't give a flying fvck anymore about West's "sanctions", as I said earlier, look at how Russia decouples from Europe. There is very little to discuss with combined West. You simply do not talk to BSers and, yes, nobody really gives a shit what Israel thinks. She was given a "good deal" by Russia, but, as I always say--Russia is not there to save people from themselves. Israel put her bets on the US, helped to corrupt and subvert American political discourse and modified US foreign policy from being simply bad into one unmitigated disaster, so, she kind of had it coming for Tel-Aviv, or Jerusalem or what have you. Let them enjoy. As for American politicians and diplomats, as good ol' saying goes: you see their lips (or Twitter) moving, this is how you know they are lying. Rephrasing famous Descartes' dictum: I am lying, therefore I am living.

Bad S-400, Bad!

And when you thought that the world couldn't get any stranger, it does get stranger, way-way stranger. Frankly, I do not even know how to define this, it is so bizarre that I am lost:

WASHINGTON ― The U.S. would be able to buy Turkey’s Russian-made S-400 air defense system under legislation proposed in the Senate last week. The proposal is one powerful lawmaker’s attempt to alleviate the impasse between Washington and Ankara over the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Senate Majority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., has proposed an amendment to the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act that would allow the purchase to be made using the U.S. Army’s missile procurement account. The move comes a year after the U.S. expelled NATO ally Turkey from the multinational F-35 program because it received the S-400 in a $2.5 billion deal. However, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch, R-Idaho, has introduced an amendment that would take a tougher stance, mandating the Trump administration implement CAATSA sanctions on Turkey within 30 days of passage of the NDAA. Risch has been critical of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and accused him of bad faith in dealings with the U.S. over the S-400.

It is so "out there" that one has to ask--do they think Russians are that stupid? But the arrogance is oozing from those guys:

The U.S. routinely buys foreign technology and could both exploit the S-400′s technology and test U.S. tactics, said Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon official for European and NATO policy. If Turkey doesn’t go for the idea, he said, the two countries are still stuck. “I think the US buying the S-400s from Turkey is a clever way of getting Erdogan out of the jam he put himself in,” Townsend said. “We just want to get the system out of Turkey ... and if it enables the Turks to take part in the F-35 then all the better.”

As I stated not for once, F-35 for S-400, or, for that matter, any recent modification of S-300+ or Buk, when integrated properly, is just another aerial target. All those statements originating both in Senate and from all kinds of "experts" are a direct testimony to a bankruptcy of the whole "Stealth" based air warfare doctrine. While at it, why don't those people ask Russia to sell them 3M22 Zircon, P-800 Oniks, A-100 AWACS, S-500 and Yasen-calss submarine. And why not--that will be a bonanza for US trying to close a gap in generation or two in those funky weapons. To be honest, though, Putin once did offer (as a joke) to sell Russian weapons to the United States. And I am sure Russians are writing a letter to Erdogan allowing him to sell Turkish S-400 to US this very moment as I type this. The permission should arrive any minute now. This whole thing is so surreal, that it is totally legitimate to convincingly state that they all completely went off the rails in D.C. And lost the touch with the reality. 

In conclusion: Russia offers today to clients way more than state-of-the-art weaponry. As I repeat ad nauseam, attached to this weaponry come those elements of political stability which the US simply cannot provide and, in fact, acts as highly destabilizing force on most occasions. As they say, who needs an enemy when one has an ally such as the US. In the end, US simply has nothing comparable, not even close, in terms of air-defense complexes, not to mention the fact that, remember, Erdogan wants his hands on toys US simply cannot offer. And if he behaves, in the end, he may get even juicer ones, such as S-500 at some point of time. That will be a wowser, granted NATO will still exist then. 

Let Me Be A Bit... Thoughtful.

Like in Hm. I am deeply into thinking deeply deep thoughts. 

Could this, today: 

And this: 

Yet despite fears that Russia’s main export grade Urals will inevitably fall victim to such an aggressive Saudi marketing strategy, Urals’ allure has caught market watchers somewhat offguard.  

Be related to this: 

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. is pulling two Patriot missile batteries and some fighter aircraft out of Saudi Arabia, an American official said Thursday, amid tensions between the kingdom and the Trump administration over oil production. The official said the decision removes two batteries that were guarding oil facilities in Saudi Arabia but leaves two Patriot batteries at Prince Sultan Air Base in the Saudi desert, along with other air defense systems and jet fighters. The decision scales back the American presence in Saudi Arabia just months after the Pentagon began a military buildup there to counter threats from Iran. About 300 troops that staff the two batteries would also leave Saudi Arabia, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

Oh boy, you gotta love the work of analytical analysts because they constantly seem to be "caught somewhat offguard" in their analysis. I don't remember who said it (it is an American, I believe, truism) that Russians do not even take a dump without a plan. The first tell-tale sign of a larger plan than mere "oil war", for which Saudis not only will but are already taking the fall, was when Saudis started directly talking about Russia as part of the family. I noted a week ago:

Thus the question--a very practical one--who can built a proper and effective air and anti-missile defense for Saudis' main treasure while simultaneously restraining Iran. In the end, he bottom line is always not how you live, however important, but if you live at all. Saudis, certainly, saw how certain country conducts object and area defense operations and how she uses both military and diplomatic power to "calm things down" in the country, to he North, infested with Saudis' very own Al Qaeda and Qatar's very own ISIS. They know how it goes there. But then again, Saudis were in the market for technology which actually works for a while.

Moreover, if that wasn't enough, there are news of Russia and Turkey negotiating conditions for second shipment of S-400 to Turkey, including Turkey's partial localization of some elements for S-400 is ongoing and actively at that (in Russian). You see, as I say non-stop: in REAL life, REAL policies are conducted in tangibles, or in real quid-pro-quo. Geopolitical favor is also a serious tangible. Moreover, the main reserve currency today is not even USD--let all those financiers think that--it is a political stability which has real value. This is the highest level valuation in which purely monetary rules do not apply. In the end, Russia can sell to Saudis, say couple of regiments of S-400 together with Tor or S1, not only in USD, but in Euros or even in Yuans. In fact, anyone can trade with Russia in whatever the currency they prefer--Pound Sterling? Who said no? Rubles? Absolutely. Saudis will need (in fact they already badly need) "guns for hire" and there is only one country which can fit the bill. "We have always been at war with Eurasia"(c).     

Donald Trump today offered Russia help with Covid-19 outbreak--a really nice gesture. All this against the background of this:

Charges against US President Donald Trump’s first national security adviser, General Michael Flynn, have been dropped due to new evidence showing they were baseless. Flynn was the first to be targeted in the ‘Russiagate’ probe.  

Can we now expect some real movement on charging everyone knows who with treason and sedition? It is about time. If this happens, we may indeed talk about a significant event, apart from economic depression, in modern American history which will have profound global ramifications. That may open a window, as it is most times the case in major crises, for some interesting opportunities which MUST be discussed among big players in what is commonly referred today as Yalta 2.0. This may be the only chance to formalize new geopolitical reality and avoid a major war.

New S-400 Contract For Turkey?

OK, certainly looks like. Or, as they say, appetite comes during the meal. 

Turkey is to sign a new contract for S-400 missile-defense systems with Russia, according to Moscow, which would risk further souring ties with the US and could trigger threatened sanctions. Ankara received the first batch of Russia's surface-to-air missile systems systems in July, prompting the US to kick Turkey off its F-35 fighter jet programme. The Trump administration warned Ankara it could face sanctions, but said Ankara could be spared if it does not activate the S-400 system. But the Nato member yesterday came one step closer as it began testing a newly acquired Russian missile defence system against American-made fighter jets. Footage of the first trial run, which began on Monday and continued into Tuesday, showed the system’s radars rotating over an air base outside the capital. US-made F-16 fighter jets were used as mock targets during the exercise, which will likely irk Washington. Initial tests may just be to ensure that the radars are working properly or to see if they can adequately distinguish between friendly and enemy aircraft.

Some Turkish user already uploaded a video of S-400 running its radar systems, namely 40V6MR mast with acquisition 96L6 radar, and, what seems like a 91N6E--another acquisition and battle management radar. I cannot vouch for this video being genuine but to me it looks legit. 

So, Turks are already running, it seems, detection routine with F-16 and F-4 as targets. Turks will, already do, want more. Turks know what comes next, and it is S-500--they want it. The reason is simple: look at the map of Turkey and see how much Eastern Mediterranean she will be able to cover--pretty much all of it. Just in case. And it is not just for the reasons of Greece and gas fields, but for the reasons of Israel. Turkish path towards a leadership in Islamic world lies through the fate of Palestine. So, a lot of thing are riding on those systems for Turkey and, just a hunch, SU-35s will follow.    

Again? No, Really.

This saga becomes simply preposterous now. 

WASHINGTON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Turkey needs to "get rid of" the Russian S-400 missile defense system it purchased, a senior State Department official said on Thursday, to overcome a standoff with Washington, which says the procurement poses a threat to NATO defense capabilities. Ankara and Washington have been at loggerheads over Turkey's purchase of the S-400 system, which Washington says is not compatible with NATO defenses and poses a threat to its F-35 stealth fighter jets. U.S. President Donald Trump hosted his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan at the White House last week for a meeting, which Trump described as "wonderful." However, it was not clear if the two NATO allies made any breakthrough on the S-400 impasse. "There is room for Turkey to come back to the table. They know that to make this work they need to either destroy or return or somehow get rid of the S-400," the official told reporters at a briefing.

I will repeat what I stated not for once before precisely on this situation. But, it seems, intellectual level of US Department of State top is such that they simply fail to grasp:

1. Turkish (in general Oriental) mentality which emphasizes the issue of honor and face, even if misplaced under some circumstances;

2. The issue of the United States making itself look very weak with each demand for Turkey to abandon S-400 deal; 

3. A default discrediting, already revealed long time ago to be not what it stated to be, US military technology, especially under the laughable and lame pretexts such as S-400 "compromising" F-35 "Stealth".

But Erdogan, upon his return to Ankara, said he told Trump during talks that Turkey would not give up on the Russian S-400 missile defences and cited strong ties with Moscow.

My question is, are they even aware in State Department of how do they look like when literally begging, threatening and demanding non-stop for Turkey to abandon S-400 contract? Even if to imagine that Turkey quits the contract, returns already delivered battalion of S-400 back to Russia, this not only will not improve US position vis-a-vis S-400 and Russia, it will be even more humiliating, because will create a tsunami of sarcasm globally. Not to mention the fact of Turks looking as the American stooges and Turks, certainly, have better opinion of themselves. How about State Department creating a new Office of S-400 Weekly Complaints and Threats Towards Turkey (OSWCTTT). Should be a pretty nice sinecure for some bureaucrat. Should pay well too--rent and real estate prices inside the Beltway are atrocious. Foggy Bottom especially. 

In any case, as Sergei Lavrov stated correctly few days ago: 

It is not easy to part with power: both real and perceived. Not easy at all, I know--I survived such a departure, I know how it feels and what it does to one personally, and tens of millions people in general. Here is one reason for the West going down the drain, yet another wonderfully tolerant day in Germany:

No surprise here, same as with Germans moving to Russia. Some going back, like Russian Germans, others pure 100% Germans simply abandoning Germany and immigrating to Russia. Like Gudrun, who decided that her place is in Russia, near lovely Yaroslavl, not in Germany. Sadly, the video is in Russian (dubbed over German) but it speaks volumes. 

They come young and old, families and alone. Russian response is overwhelmingly positive--welcome, European brethren. Read comments under the video. I know some genuine Germans live now in Altai and the "rumor" has it, as well as Gudrun testifies to it--many Eastern Germans are seriously thinking about immigrating to Russia. They will be met with open arms. But just to demonstrate a cultural abyss which separates today Russia and Europe and the US, here is the news--a major Russian media, reprints other popular Moscow magazine's (Moskvich--Moscowite)--New type of fraud, Gypsies wearing a makeup which makes them look like Slavs. Do I hear hysterical screams from NYT, CNN, BBC, EU Parliament, State Department about "gypsy holocaust", about "racial profiling" and about this Russian Mordor where actually citizens and law enforcement do care about profiling based on race, ethnicity and religion to maintain overwhelming majority of law abiding, contributing population safe from crime. Isn't it the only way to do it? Yes, it is the ONLY way and that is how it was done for centuries. Vladimir Putin (in Russian) agrees with me. Even Sweden is admitting, however incompletely, about catastrophe which befell the nation which is being literally gang raped and demolished by Muslim "rapefugee" gangs. I think it is late now, but as they say, better late....you know the rest. 

This is how you deal with thieves, drug pushers and free-loaders. 

And something tells me--it is one of the major reasons, why more and more Europeans are moving to Russia. Like Justus. He, as it is stated in one of the comments, an American (as the type, not just person) Russians fell in love with. 

It is an incredible (and dangerous) time we all live in, but it also holds in itself an incredible promise and that is why, most likely, Turkey will not abandon S-400 contract.  

UPDATE: LOL!!

WASHINGTON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The United States is working with Egypt to deter it from going ahead with a deal to buy Russian warplanes, threatening the Cairo government with sanctions if it does, a senior State Department official said on Thursday. Washington was still working with Egypt to address its defense needs, the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told a briefing. "But we've also been transparent with them in that if they are to acquire a significant Russian platform ... that puts them at risk towards sanctions." The United States has over the years provided billions of dollars in economic and military aid to Egypt, a long-time ally whose military operates the F-16 fighter jet. Egypt earlier this year signed a $2 billion agreement with Russia to buy more than 20 Su-35 fighter jets. The United States could impose sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which targets purchases of military equipment from Russia.

Do they even understand how they humiliate themselves? Apparently not.   

A Teeny-Weeny Bit Of News From Germany.

I respect Germans, not the perverts from the so called German "left", but real Germans who understand who they are and have ideas about Germany other than guidelines dictated from the swamp of the modern political creatures at the service of globalism. But even globalist shills understand that if Germany has any chance to survive in whatever shape and not be consumed by the United States against which Germany's very high energy cost manufacturing is a very weak hand, Germany needs affordable energy. Bundestag obviously understands that:

Berlin (AP) - The Bundestag has cleared the way for the controversial gas pipeline Nord Stream 2. With the votes of the coalition parliamentary groups CDU / CSU and SPD as well as the FDP the conversion of an EU gas guideline into national law was decided. This should provide legal and planning certainty for Nord Stream 2. The Greens raised sharp criticism. A proposal for a decision on the draft law that has now been adopted is concerned with the addition of a time-limit until when exceptions to certain provisions of the Directive are possible. It is now said that "all circumstances" of the individual case must be taken into account. The amendment to the EU Gas Directive adopted in April stipulates that in future EU energy rules will also apply to pipelines that run from third countries to the European Union. According to this, the production of natural gas and the operation of the pipeline must not be in the same hands - unlike before in Nord Stream 2. 

The only issue I have with this is that Nord Stream 2 is called "controversial". Well, for European Greens who are primarily an open-door asylum for mentally disabled people it is "controversial", it is, of course, controversial for the United States. But then again, everything Russia-related is controversial for the United States, including down right embarrassing maneuvering around Turkish S-400s. 

WASHINGTON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - The United States is very upset about Turkey's purchase of Russian missile defense systems and could impose sanctions on Ankara if it does not "get rid" of them, White House National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien said on Sunday. "Turkey will feel the impact of those sanctions," O'Brien told CBS's "Face the Nation" in an interview, referring to penalties under the U.S. law known as the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, which he said would pass Congress with "overwhelming" bipartisan support.

This will continue across the whole spectrum of the American foreign so called "policy" issues but it will not change couple of facts "on the ground" which became clear for anyone with half-a-brain observing American behavior in the last 5 or so years. 

1. Nord Stream 2, of course, never was about US "concern" about "security" of Europe's energy supply. It was always about opening European market for American expensive LNG while simultaneously providing a double-whammy by raising costs of European, especially German highly energy consuming, manufacturing thus reducing competitiveness of Germany's products. This, and then, of course, Russia--since 1970s the United States were in constant opposition to any Soviet/Russian supply of Europe with affordable energy. Soviet Union then and Russia today were not and are not supposed to benefit from selling energy and, while doing so, establishing better economic relations which served as an impediment to any war plans against Soviet/Russian "threat". 

2. This pathetic charade about F-35 (or F-22) should really be dropped by now. Not only they are seen by S-400s, they are seen by S-300s, and especially are seen by integrated Air Defense using normal sensor-data-fusion techniques across the whole spectrum from optical to radio. They are also seen by the radar or OLS of such aircraft as SU-30SM, SU-35C and SU-57. Even the latest butt-hurt BS propagated by all kinds of tabloids such as The National Interest pushing some lame rumors about supposedly S-500 being "tested" in Syria is yet another link in this long chain of BS claims to save "reputation" of one of the most embarrassing military programs, or rather failures, in the history of humanity. 

But in all of this, one can easily see machinations and desperate attempts to save what Obama Administration and its so called Intelligence Community thought would be a sure thing--to lure and then lock Russia in with the shithole both US and EU helped to create in Ukraine. When it became obvious that Russia didn't take the bait and forestalled the United States first with Crimea and, secondly, in Syria it became clear that the only value of the Ukrainian madhouse for the United States and the Belt of Stupid (US lapdogs from Poland and Baltic States) is in trying to coerce Russia to continue to finance Nazi low lives in Kiev through the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. "Smart" plan--making Russians pay for the chaos near their border. Well, considering ignorant petulant infantiles populating US "analytical" circles, this master plan was calculated well in advance and all necessary steps were taken.  You all know the story--I call it a Revelation Mode and, in fact, I may reiterate again (and why not?), the emergence of a new TOOD (Theater Of Operation Denial) Doctrine. All this happened in an instant when looked at it in historic terms. I had this discussion with Paul Craig Roberts and others not for once: compare the start-state and the end-state, between 2014 and 2019. We all live in a completely different world than it was in 2014. I mean completely, it is already unrecognizable for those who have an attention span longer than the time between commercials in SitCom and who opened their minds to seeing obvious things. 

Here is the deal. The way I see it. Hopefully by that time this pathetic show with "Impeachment" will be over and many people (if to believe that AG Barr and DOJ have any balls and integrity left) who are today omnipresent in US media will be locked away. That time is being May 9, 2020--the 75th Anniversary of the defeat of Nazism. Russia already issued invitation to Donald Trump to attend the undeniably grandiose parade in the Red Square. If the seditious treasonous coup is squashed early next year, Trump has a choice, an enormously powerful choice--if he goes to Moscow he may get along with himself a unified battalion of the US Armed Forces for it to march at the Red Square at the Parade. The precedent was set in 2010. After all, USSR and the United States were big allies. Who knows, suddenly UK and France may "reconsider" (wink, wink). But we'll see how it plays out. But yes, it will take draining of the swamp, but can you imagine the power of such a message? In the end, there are always American and British flags present every year in a massive river of humanity walking in an Immortal Regiment March. I think that is more important, even if for a day, than any geopolitics.     

A Peculiar History.

A sort of Russia's atonement, I guess, for betraying Serbs in 1999.  I recall vividly when in a huge crowd of Serbs who went to greet Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Alexy II in Belgrade in 1999, visible were the banners with such message: Don't give us Patriarch, Give Us S-300s. That was my sentiment too. But Russia of 1999, led, if one may say so, by alcoholic low life and his cabal of "reformers" many of who were openly anti-Russian, was speedily shown her place by the US and she... obliged. Things changed since then, as did Russia, who was forced to change after NATO aggression against Serbia. 

MOSCOW/BELGRADE (Reuters) - Russia said on Thursday a division of its S-400 missile defense system would take part in a military drill in Serbia, underlining Moscow's wish to keep a traditional ally on side even as Belgrade pursues links with NATO and the European Union. It will be the first time that the sophisticated S-400s, together with a Pantsir missile battery, will be participating in military exercises abroad, Moscow's Defence Ministry said in a statement. For its part, Serbia's Defence Ministry said the exercises - dubbed Slavic Shield 2019, aimed to simulate the "use of a joint (combat) group...in defending... against enemy reconnaissance and offensive actions". "Apart from anti-aircraft missile systems in use in the Serbian army, missile systems that are in use by the Russian Air Force will also be used" in the live-fire exercise set to run until Oct. 29, it said in a statement. The exercises began on Wednesday but were not made public until Thursday.

Anyone is 100% positive that all of those systems will get back to Russia? After all, this kind of statements DO mean something important:

The two countries have also boosted intelligence cooperation. On Wednesday, Sergey Naryshkin, head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), told Serbian state-run RTS TV that the two countries were performing "complex mutual operations" to protect their external interests. Serbia has relied on Russia for support in its continued refusal to recognize the independence of its former southern province of Kosovo, which seceded in 2008 after a bloody guerrilla uprising. NATO peacekeepers remain in Kosovo. Serbia also depends on Russia for natural gas supplies and the largest local oil company, Naftna Industrija Srbije, is majority-owned by Russia’s Gazprom.

The West was behind gang-rape of Serbia based on a completely cooked "intelligence" which ignored completely the fate of Serbs, who were ethnically cleansed and are being ethnically cleansed in the illegal statelet of Kosovo. Obviously NATO had no inhibitions in supporting Kosovar organized crime and Islamism--a feature of the contemporary West from the times of Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. We know the results, don't we? 

I am in no position to write on Serbia's internal dynamics--to be sure Serbia is filled with all kinds of Western "assets" and other "democracy"-activists--but there is very little doubt that many, very many, Serbs DO view Russia as their only chance at restoration of territorial integrity and, in the end, economic growth. S-400s and other systems can help ensure Serbia's safety from aggression. This was 9 months ago in Belgrade. No comments are necessary here. 

It is now up to Serbs themselves, Russia, it seems, will do her part. History is a peculiar thing, some things in it you just can't break.

I Think I Owe It To My Readers.

One of our readers posted this interview of some Swedish Ph.D in something-something waxing technological about (Russian) weapon systems. And since this was posted, I think I owe some explanation of the abyss of technological incompetence and outright imbecility this Ph.D from Sweden exhibits. 

I could last only about 8 minutes before I had to do this:

As you may have foreseen, any search on this Swedish military "luminary" produced an incredibly dry little about him, other than  his working for some Swedish military-political "think-tank".  And this:

Robert Dalsjö is a politico-military affairs generalist at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), with a focus on hard security in Europe. Recent unclassified reports include the potential impact of Western airpower on a war in the Baltic region (forthcoming), a critical assessment of Russian A2/AD-capabilities in the Baltic region, a concept for threshold defence for small states, a survey of Swedish national interests, problems in conventional arms control, and an assessment Baltic defence capabilities. He has previously served as Senior Advisor to Sweden’s MoD and as Defence Advisor at Sweden’s delegation to Nato. He holds a Ph.D. from KCL and a M.S.F.S from Georgetown, and is also an active reserve officer serving part-time on the joint operations staff. 

Immediately few question arise from this short CV on this dude. 

1. What his Ph.D thesis--he received his degree from King's College London--was about? After a brief review of King's College London courses related to warfare I discovered same ol' list of "study" courses which provide mostly zero educational value in actual warfare (and its history) and are remarkably along the same lines as courses in political pseudo-science, including same ol' "security studies" and other primarily "humanities"-driven courses which are specifically designed for people with zero STEM education and serious serious background in weapon systems and their tactics and operational dimension. Just to be completely clear on that--my degree reads like this: Navigator-engineer, a specialist in gyro-inertial navigational complexes of naval strategic missile systems. Based primarily around strategic missile submarines of pr. 667 B-BD (NATO: Delta I-II). This is not to mention the fact of receiving equivalent of B.S. in Military Sciences (a subject non-existent in the most Western world), not to mention the fact having second specialty as an officer of tactical command (platoon+) of naval infantry (marines). My graduate thesis was ASW based. Plus I graduated from some funny officer school, or, rather, school for officers. So, feel the "academic" difference. 

2. As it turned out M.S.F.S. from Georgetown is nothing more than Master of Science (really?) in Foreign Service, which, of course, is yet another iteration of the political science, and teaches zero serious warfare-related skills. It is primarily designed for people with, you guessed it, mostly interest in generalities and not learning any practical skills as the record of whopping failures of the United States in the "international (or foreign) relations" demonstrates so profoundly. 

So, as you can see, it is very difficult to find anything concrete on this type of "scholars" other than very general and short credentials rundown and that is about it. Ah yes, he also goes by the title of Military Generalist--I have no freaking idea what this is. You can download the publication by this dude and other Swedish "researches" here. It is a remarkable report written by people who can barely operate with basic mathematics and physics and are so butt-hurt that I, after suffering through this dude's commentaries on how Air Defense works, decided to address it. Feel free to listen to a delirium this "scholar" pushes as a fact on some British journo, he repeats merely the idiocy which is in his (and others) publication I mention above. It is a mental rape of warfare, physics, mathematics and, in the end, common sense which is totally EXPECTED from the field of so called Anglo (and lapdogs) military analysis saturated with people with zero understanding of modern warfare. Here is one such example:

The S-400 air defence system is often claimed to have a 400-km range, but FOI’s technical experts estimate that the effective range against maneuvering targets at low altitude is much less, even down to 20 km for smaller targets hugging the terrain.21 Russian specialists have estimated the effective range of the S-400 against old and un-stealthy Tomahawk cruise missiles to be 24–36 km in mixed terrain.22 At low altitudes, the masking effect of terrain, trees and buildings can cause a diagram of the effective range to resemble a Rorschach-blot rather than a neat circle. The S-400 system also has limitations when dealing with a large number of targets that appear within a short space of time, such as a swarm of cruise missiles.23 

Let me do some autopsy on this steaming pile of ignorance: 

Obviously while citing Roger McDermot's very understandably butt-hurt (I may add) "version" of the events mostly through approximation of what Mikhail Khodarenok or whoever else stated re: April 18, 2018 attacks in Syria,  they forgot to mention that ANY air-defense complex has its tactical-technical parameters specified for the types of targets which are classified by, as a rule, their height (altitude), velocity, maneuvering parameters and RCS openly, and in EW environment secretly (that is classified). I will omit here the fact, that same Mikhail Khodarenok, while having an impressive air-defense and General Staff credentials, retired from service in 2000 and, as it is inevitable, had his Form 1A (I used to hold one too) clearance removed. S-400 became operational in 2007 and since then has been "improved" constantly. But, I know that they do not teach basic physics and radar technology, especially as it applies to military, in institutions which this Swedish "scholar" graduated from and let me explain why it is a problem, 

1. I quote: The S-400 air defence system is often claimed to have a 400-km range, but FOI’s technical experts estimate that the effective range against maneuvering targets at low altitude is much less, even down to 20 km for smaller targets hugging the terrain.

If I deploy S-400 in 30 meters from the 100 meter high wall, S-400 range will be about...30 meters in the wall's "sector". But our Swedish friends need to be given a little lesson in the radar work. We will use the simplest physics without going into such parameters as RLP, which is radio-permeability of the environment, refraction and other physical phenomena which define the use of....read attentively, it will matter later in this post, INTEGRATED AIR-DEFENSE system. So, the terrain matters--everyone understand this, but what about this attack on Russia in Baltic region, which Swedish "scholar" dreams about. Well, consider the most primitive example: 

Even the brief review of trees' height in Baltic Sea area reveals that the forest canopy of the region is somewhere around 35 meters. 

There are many trees which are even higher, some forests in Finland (you see, if Sweden decides to attack Russia) reach even 45 meters in height, while some Polish trees can reach the height of 50 meters. That means that safe elevation of the salvo of NATO's (or Sweden's?) cruise missiles needs to be around 70 give and take some meters. Most likely more. We may assume the area to be mostly flat, which it generally is. So, we have a cruise altitude at around 70 meters while antenna of S-400 (pay attention, I take here now only ridiculous scenario of a salvo against single S-400 divizion), will most likely encounter this 76N6 thingy which reaches 127 ft. (42 meters) high and leads us to this:

2. See highlighted in yellow. 

So, what's the deal with those "smaller targets hugging terrain" and less than 20 kilometers? Even when one considers horizon "interference adjustment" for SOME forests along the path. Of course, I omit here other factors, such as multilayered and easily reconfigured (by maneuver on wheels) fully integrated AD network which includes S1, Tor-M2 and Buk-M3 (S-350 Vityaz is coming soon too) and integrated with external targeting means such as over-the-horizon radar, AWACS such as A-50 and 100 and space-based assets, which allow same S-400 attack even low flying targets at the ranges well beyond the horizon by means of active radar homing missiles such as 9M96 which are specifically designed to kill small, high speed, maneuvering targets. NATO doesn't have high speed, maneuvering land-attack missiles. None exist--all of them are subsonic easily defeated missiles, yes, including Sweden's own (in cooperation with Germany) KEPD 350.   

3. Obviously our Swedish friends missed this news too:   

China's People's Liberation Army Rocket Force last month tested the S-400 Triumf air defence system successfully shooting down a "simulated ballistic target" almost 250 kilometre away and moving at the supersonic speed of 3 kilometre per second, Hong-Kong based South China Morning Post reported on Thursday, quoting Russian media reports. Details of the location of the test have not been disclosed. 

They could have at least bothered themselves with reading good ol' Soviet AD Combat Manuals. But it seems, these "analysts" are not well acquainted with the basics of AD tactics and combat schemes of deployment which seriously consider.

a) The terrain--limitations, as well as advantages. Elevations matter and increase autonomous (stand alone) detection range;

b) Expected threats and probable threat directions (sectors): cruise missiles, aircraft, ground threats;

c) Meteorological and electric state of the environment factors.  

d) Maximization of coverage (overlap) of ground, air and space based means for proper detection, tracking and development of firing solutions with proper target designation between deployed AD means. As an example A-50U (not to speak of A-100) have a superb range (hundreds of kilometers) and clutter filtering specifically against low flying targets and are capable of providing targeting to all AD complexes such as S-300 or S-400.

And then, if you survive listening through the gibberish this "analyst" delivers to British journo, his pearl about Russian anti-shipping missiles is simply one of those WTF moments. 

4. So, the dude obviously is so illiterate that he doesn't even know that since late 1970s-early 1980s Soviet (now Russian) targeting radar on ships had and still have (including for shore based complexes such as Bastion or Bal) OVER-THE-HORIZON channels which were realized in such systems as Mineral ME Radar, which can detect and develop firing solution over-the-horizon, way way over the horizon. That allows the use of Russian (and Chinese, I am sure Iranian too) anti-shipping missiles at the maximum range, including receiving of targeting data, which is either ephemerids (Lambda, Phi--Longitude, Altitude) or Azimuth (Bearing)--Range, plus maneuvering elements of targets from external sources (course, speed), such as Satellites (Liana), other ships, aircraft or what have you. He obviously never heard of refined final search (dorazvedka) by missiles with active heads. How the ellipses (2D for surface) and 3D for aerial targets are reduced and uncertainties are resolved--I think this is beyond the scope of this post and requires a very long and very mathematical elaborations. I will just add that it has everything to do with the weight of observations, which brings us to another pearl:

5. I quote: At low altitudes, the masking effect of terrain, trees and buildings can cause a diagram of the effective range to resemble a Rorschach-blot rather than a neat circle. 

Is this clown for real? He obviously never heard about resolution of uncertainties and data fusion within network which constantly exchanges and signal processes observation data from every RELEVANT node in it and those nodes are not just a single radar from S-400 but a complex of active radar, optronic, passive inputs from several, sometimes very many, sources. In the United States it has a designated term of CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability)--an ability to collect, process and represent real time tactical and operational information as a combined PICTURE from multiple sources. This is how Ph.D in physics and long time generally respected naval analyst Norman Friedman defines it: Picture-Centric Warfare. 

Mineral

So, in this case I have to ask (rhetorically) myself--if these "analysts" and "military generalist" consult Swedish MoD it is not surprising then that Swedish Navy constantly hunts Russian subs in Baltic and seems never to detect one, while being in the state of constant hysteria. It is not surprising then, that all these "analytical" materials all as one lack any serious numbers or at least competent elaborations on tactical and operational effects, because people who write them, with some very few exceptions, do not operate within a framework in which real military professionals operate. It is downright embarrassing to see a person who goes under the title of military "analyst" spreading a teenage fanboy BS as an "assessment" while having no grasp of basic physical principles realized in modern weapon systems--of course not, one must have serious background in it. So what gives then?

The answer is simple--Sweden is a radically Russophobic nation, to a hysterical pitch Russophobia. Partially it can be explained by Russia winning the Great Northern War thus removing Sweden from the position of Northern (not just Scandinavian) European superpowerdom. Part of it is a memory of embarrassing primarily for the USSR but also for Swedish Navy flop with Swedish Komsomolets in 1981 which fueled flames of Swedish anti-Russian paranoia. Part of it is Sweden turning into cuckold nation long ago and becoming the rape capital of Europe and fighting hard to become #1 in the world, while sticking to the suicidal and humiliating policies domestically. While Swedish women are being raped, sorry, culturally enriched, by hordes of "refugees" Swedes are being intimidated by their "free" media with those crude, Slavic subhumans to the East who are sleeping and dreaming about conquering free Sweden and finally stealing those tremendously important and coveted secrets of Ikea. They cannot conceive that Russians just do not give a damn about Sweden, or about Europe in general anymore and that Russia is long ago is in full defensive posture. In fact, Sweden must face the fact that the times of ABBA are over, and that while Volvo is a good car, Gripen still flies with licensed to Volvo US GE F404 engine. Sweden, of course, leads the world in discovering new genders. So, this, I believe, projected against the background of a general Western intellectual collapse what drives such "researchers" and "scholars" to go out and self-medicate with utter BS designed for consumption of a public which increasingly finds itself already in or ignores rigid shackles of totalitarianism and the death of the free thought and meritocracy in the West. And who can best serve as an exhibit A of this Orwellian reality--Sweden immediately comes to mind. And here you are.

P.S. Did I mention refraction? Wink-wink.