Local technicians will get it back to speed in no time.
E-3 Sentry at US Base Sultana in Saudi Arabia yesterday.
Showing posts with label Saudi Arabia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saudi Arabia. Show all posts
Saturday, March 28, 2026
Friday, November 7, 2025
People Still Lose The Sight ...
... of the issue. No, it doesn't have to be in the US Dollars.
The ONLY dominating reason for the primacy of the US Dollar (aka Petrodollar) in the hydrocarbons trade was not some magical financial BS, albeit not without it, no--the main reason was a perception that the US CAN enforce the use of a US Dollar by means of its grossly exaggerated military power. Period, everything else was secondary. Now, suddenly, US has been exposed as a military paper tiger and the world took a note. Can US enforce anything with China? Of course not, not to mention the gargantuan scale and diversification of Chinese economy which dwarfs that of the US. Can the US enforce anything against Russia? Well, unlike US military academies and Pentagon, military people around the world actually DO study real military science and operations. They also study REAL military history and they know the score, especially against the background of SMO. Soooo .... ?
You get the picture, right? The US zenith as global economic power is over, if you doubt it--go to Walmart or COSTCO. The main issue now is how to preserve remaining American industrial capacity and expertise. Expansion? Seriously? Military-wise, you all know by now what it all turned out to be--a simulacrum, a projection by Hollywood primarily and by Wehrmacht. US military is obsessed with Wehrmacht as happens with impressionable and obsessive child who endows some adult person with qualities this child desperately wants to posses, not understanding that this adult is just average and lacks those qualities. It is called projection. Read it, read it attentively--it implicitly answers the question why Sarah Paine is "moron with Ph.D." and why the US military is primarily a figment of imagination of people like her. I speak about it in my video today and about how Epistemic Closure looks like. Here is a simpler explanation:
Emphasis on empirical evidence. That is why the US lost all of its wars and lost its grossly exaggerated status as a preeminent global power.
Thursday, June 13, 2024
This Is Not Really The News...
...it has been known for a long time.
In the humiliation of epic proportions the US sanctions on Russia failed miserably and the score of failures continues to grow. The US will now try to, indeed, steal Russia's $300 billion and that will be it for Dollar as the reserve currency. The main pillar of Dollar's status was always the myth of the "finest fighting force in history". Remarkably, this force cannot win a single war and even it allegedly advanced netcentric and comms capabilities it tries to run in Ukraine are being dealt with great efficiency. The latest issue of Military Thought describes what the US tries to accomplish there. Meanwhile:
Hm, how 'bout that. Where are the US Armed Forces to enforce the sanctity of the US Dollar. They should march to Russia and beat the crap out of those Russkies for disregarding USD and doing whatever those nasty Slavic untermenschen do. Damn, even in "defense agreement" with 404 US made sure to have the clause of the US troops not being in 404. Well, we all know the name of the game, don't we? Meanwhile the slaughter of VSU and its "advisers" continues unabated. Somebody will get really rich when he shoots down first F-16. R 15 million is a lot of money. People may say I exhibit all signs of schadenfreude. Wrong! I exhibit signs of a gigantic, uber-delightful schadenfreude.
Monday, October 10, 2022
Remember When...
When the Soviet Union destroyed Nazism? As it turned out it was because of... weakness. Recall Russians defeating Napoleon and then Alexander I triumphantly entering Paris in 1814? What a loser! Yes, yes. Alexander Nevsky was so weak in 1242 that accidentally defeated Teutonic Knights. Russia adding 120,000 square kilometers of territory and millions of people to herself lately--this is a definite sign of a terminal weakness.
Per US Air Defense systems--as I am on record, sure, let the 404 have it, it will be amusing to see the reputation of yet another NATO military toy going up in flames. Meanwhile US legislators continue to shoot themselves in the foot.
What a maroon!(c) LOL)) Sergei Chemezov approves of Menendez' message.
S-400s and Su-35Cs with upcoming S-75s are out there... waiting in the wings. Hey, nothing personal--just business.
Wednesday, July 13, 2022
Oh, Boy! And Larry On Propaganda and Lies.
That is a shocker..., not really. I totally expected that from Turkey but:
Translation: BRICS is waiting for new members: in addition to Argentina and Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are also preparing to submit applications for membership in the organization. This was stated to Izvestiya by a high-ranking source who was aware of the progress of the process. According to him, the Crown Prince of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) Mohammed bin Salman "is serious about joining the BRICS". The interlocutor specified that this issue was also raised during the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Riyadh on June 1-2. — Russia supported the desire of Saudi Arabia to join the organization. In addition to the KSA, Turkey and Egypt also showed interest in the BRICS, they have been studying the possibility of joining for several years. But at the summit in Beijing, the issue of their entry was not discussed, but the membership of the KSA was discussed seriously. Members of the association are looking for a diplomatic solution, - said an informed source.
In fact, the name of one of the sources is known, she is Purnima Anand, the head of BRICS International Forum. So, there you go. Turkey, obviously, looks as a fit for BRICS, but Saudis joining BRICS--that is something else altogether and that is a sentence to what passes in the US for "diplomacy". So, this all comes against the background of this event:
This is not posturing at all, though. Because Saudi permanent, if not paranoid, fear is... Iran. And the security "guarantees" which the US allegedly provided for KSA lost a lot of their value. Not least through Iran demonstrating that they are ballsy people in 2020, after General Soleimani's assassination. And now Iran is on the fast track to BRICS and much closer ties to Russia. Saudis are not complete idiots, they watch TV and have their own sources of information. They surely saw Russian operations in Syria and see SMO in real time, they also see what the US is trying "to accomplish" both on the oil market and how it destroys itself and, even more so, Europe. What is always appreciated in the Middle East is resolve and power. Did you see Joe Biden recently, or behavior of Jake Sullivan or Tony Blinken? If you think that it is all a projection of confidence and power, you live in the alternative reality.
As I already stated not for once, the only things Western "elites" are good at is PR and killing defenseless. West's resource base is shrinking dramatically. And while some Turkish analysts think that joining BRICS is not the best time now because of Turkey's economic issues, this might be precisely the reason why some in Turkey are preparing applications for BRICS. Larry, actually, ads to the case of BRICS and how it is viewed in other parts of the world by means of demolishing yet another NYT propaganda piece:
Larry uses a very effective math and logic when concludes:
The real question that Schmitt and Barnes should have asked, how long can US officials continue to bullshit themselves and pour expensive weapon systems into a rat hole? The speed of Russia’s advance appears to be accelerating. There are reports today that Russian forces are entering the outskirts of Seversk, one of the key strong points of the new Ukrainian defensive line. If true, the Russians are likely to achieve a strategic breakthrough in the Donetsk. What the gullible reporters and the morons who staff the CIA and DIA fail to comprehend is that Russia’s tactic of systematically destroying the air, armor and artillery assets over the past three months appears to have achieved Clausewitz’s culminating point–i.e., the point at which a military force is no longer able to perform its operations.
Read the whole thing at Larry's blog.
Tuesday, March 15, 2022
News Of The World.
No comments are needed.
Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sale. Talks between Riyadh and Beijing have accelerated as the Saudi unhappiness grows with Washington
You see how it is done? Now, the monumental task is to connect the dots for morons from Wall Street and State Department in explaining to them how military power works and how it shapes geopolitical reality. I can guarantee you that the rest of the world waited until the West and, especially, the US would be shown its proper place and this moment has arrived, and operation in Ukraine has everything to do with it. I mean 100% because as I am on record for years THE ONLY pillar on which the reign of the US Dollar is based was a perception of the US military power. Hysteria in the US media and a bunch of the US Army generals making buffoons of themselves "analyzing" operation in 404 are first signs of a dawning realization of what is in the making.
Tuesday, June 23, 2020
No Shit. I Don't Remember Which One.
So they begin to suspect, now. This is not to say that Bismark necessarily was wrong when stated that Russians do not take a dump without a plan, but somebody finally begins to suspect something. Something they can more or less put their finger on. My disclaimer: I am not specialist in oil extraction and processing technologies, nor am I an oil market specialist, but this looks down right funny.
So, now somebody turned on their strategic thinking and concluded that:
Oh, that was so not self evident (wink, wink) that anyone with the IQ slightly higher than room temperature could have predicted it. In the matters of crude my IQ is slightly higher than room temperature, but the recent events, such as this, put forth a purely political issue which is even more important than any budget considerations for the Kingdom--a survival of its top (whatever they are in relation to each-other) and while the US doesn't have this most prized, hottest and most expensive commodity ever, Russia surely has it and she is ready to bargain--political stability under Russia's military umbrella is a very real deal. That is why there was so much hysteria in D.C, in 2015 when Russia deployed her forces to Syria--it was clear that this was a real deal. Bashar Assad is still around, isn't he? So is Maduro. So, the author of this piece arrives to a "no shit" conclusion that Russia joined OPEC+ to:
- Saudi Arabia is in a very weak position both economically and militarily and has become increasingly reliant on Russia due to the OPEC+ deal.
- The next step for Russia will be to reduce the U.S. military footprint in Saudi Arabia and attempt to offer further protection for Riyadh.
I always have a simple recipe for all those authors and award-winning journalists--study military balance. I know, I know--it is a very difficult task, because US media mostly supply propaganda and BS and learning things by yourself requires more than just degree in journalism or stock trading. Well, c'est la vie, as they say in Germany. Always look at the real military balance and a lot becomes obvious. I would say that Simon Watkins (the author) arrives (granted, too late) to a correct conclusion when states that:
“Russia has highlighted to the Saudis that it is due to spend nearly US$500 billion on U.S. defense purchases in the next five years but that last time around – with just the Houthis – none of this was any use,” the source told OilPrice.com last week. “On the other hand, the Russian air defense system – currently the S-400 but soon to be the S500 for general roll-out – is regarded by many as the most effective in the world,” he said. In fact, provision for precisely this switchover was made in the 2017 visit to Moscow by King Salman. According to various sources, the state-owned Saudi Arabian Military Industries also signed a memorandum of understanding with Russian state-owned arms exporter Rosoboronexport to buy the S-400 air defense system, plus the Kornet-EM anti-tank guided missile system, and the TOS-1A multiple rocket launcher and thermobaric weapons system, among other major arms purchases. Crucially for Russia, the agreement not only covered the supply of all of these weapons systems to Saudi Arabia and the transfer of necessary adjunct technology but also the manufacturing of these systems in Saudi Arabia, overseen by relevant Russian engineering and technical personnel and Russian security forces to ensure the safety of the people, the plants, and the products, at key sites on the ground in Saudi.
Not only this product is much more affordable, it actually works, Russian base at Khmeimim in Syria demonstrates this constantly by shooting down.... drum roll... ALL hostile aerial targets around it and this includes swarms of hostile drones and rocket propelled projectiles. Plus, Russians do not do "color revolutions", unlike the US which not only destroyed number of countries by removing their "regimes" but is actually doing it to herself now. If you are a Saudi prince, will you trust these nutjobs? Even if you are not a Saudi prince, but some average Joe (or Ivan) you wouldn't take this seriously either. Plus, of course, this chronic malaise of the American "elites"--a total inability to deal with both cause and effect of events. And inability to forecast anything short term, forget mid to long term forecasts which in the combined West, for some reason, are as reliable as a regular bowel movement in a senior retirement home.
In the end, let's face it--Russia has no benefits from negotiating pretty much anything with the United States. Zero, nada. So, why would Russia, who sells a very good chunk of her Urals crude to the US really care about what US oil industry does as long as it is removed from position of any control of the global oil market together with her Saudi lap dog. Once revenge is served cold, one may, after that, offer a helping hand. It is a typical Russian idiosyncrasy--not to beat those who are laying down. Maybe it should change. Meanwhile, enjoy, if you will, Victory Day Parade from Moscow. It should start shortly.
Thursday, June 4, 2020
This Is How Real Geopolitics Works.
Here are today's quotes for oil.
For people even remotely acquainted with energy issues and Cold War 2.0 (I suck at the former and have a clue on the latter) it shouldn't be a surprise to recall that Russia, a producer of Urals brand of crude, has (and had for a long time) her budget calculated with the base price of barrel of her crude of around $40. A year ago, ever-wrong Bloomberg--so, you see my conundrum here, it is near to impossible to find competent and objective observers of Russia in the US, so I have to get whatever I can--noted when reporting on Russia's balanced budget:
That was August 2019. Something tells me that these were not sanctions Putin was preparing Russia for--Russia lives under sanctions non-stop pretty much all her modern history, so there was very little strategic change in the way sanctions apply--slightly more, slightly less, who cares. My point is completely different here--feel free to browse my writing in this blog this year leading and during this whole oil prices snafu. As was stated--Russia did anticipate an implosion of oil prices and was ready for it way-way before the shit hit the fan, and that means Covid-19 too. And that, once one sees Russia de facto reaching today her very comfortable crude prices, while keeping US shale oil, and Saudis, under her thumb, tells about, pardon my pathos here, superb strategic planning and forecasting at Russia's top political level.
Of course, strategic planning is like that Electronic Countermeasure Thingy--that is if you have enough power to do so (hint: nobody has)--you can drown in noise pretty much a whole frequency spectrum in which combat electronics worked, works or will work. That will be not only modern iteration of Lope De Vega's (or if one wishes ancient Greek's fable) famous play of The Dog in the Manger, where one doesn't use whatever is at his disposal but also doesn't allow this whatever to be used by others. It is stupid, it is extremely energy consuming and in the end you suppress your own capabilities. But, of course, there is another way and this one goes way beyond Electronic Warfare, where modern ECM and ECCM systems detect, identify and counter almost instantaneously any kind of threat in a narrow frequency band. This applies to pretty much everything in life and is known, of course, as OODA loop. Ah those Observe and Orient truisms, when Colonel Boyd was writing about it he, of course, meant that whoever does this OO routine is observing and orienting oneself within reality. This art, however, as I preach for years, has been lost in the US for a long time now, while in other quarters this art transitioned as an organic part into the fully blown establishment dealing with this Observing and Orienting. No, it is not just intelligence alone, albeit it is part of it, very important at that, it is a whole complex of state and even private institutions who look dramatically different from the inside than all of the US think tankdom which is designed for merely one purpose: through providing sinecures for all kinds of characters from US military-political-intelligence and even business top to push all kinds of political agendas by means of "research" which, depending on who finances it, may, often does, arrive to mutually exclusive conclusions. Iraq's WMD, you know, cough-cough....
I vividly recall triumphalist declarations in all kinds of US compost media ranging from said Bloomberg to NYT, to all kinds of neoliberal globalist rags, on how Russia is about to go broke and Putin is going to lose his grip on power and how riots are about to break out in Russia, so you get the gist of this narrative, another false one in a long-long record of US media and "analysts" who do not seem to be able to get a grip. At that time, however, few paid attention to a rather calm and nonchalant predictions of Russia's energy minister Novak that things will come back to normal for Russia (and this normal is around $40 per barrel) really soon. Well, looks like Novak and this ever "losing popularity" Putin knew better. I will go out an a limb here and even propose such a ridiculous (not really) idea that Russians knew the essence of the game very-very early. Sometime early last year, I guess. And here is the point, yes, there is Moscow Stock Exchange, but it is primarily for as bunch which stole things in 1990s and nobody really gives a flying fvck, including Russia's government, about what is going on at Moscow's Stock Exchange. Feel the difference with the Western World? Yep, it is all about reality. And reality is such that Russian "liberda", which is a pretencious copy of American moneyed class, lost it big time.
Make no mistake, most of them are losers by definition and they exist only because Russians are civilized people and decided that they indeed reached the limit on revolutions. But get this:
This is today exchange rates for Ruble and this is in a stark contradiction to all those domestic and foreign "experts" who predicted Russia's demise with all that follows, like Ruble to USD as 200 to 1. For people, who have never been trained in real analysis and in a development of information into knowledge, the fact that, even with the start of oil wars and then "attack" of Covid-19, there was no rush of Russians buying foreign currencies, such as was the case in every modern Russia's crisis since 1990s, should have been the most important observation. But no, who observes anything when one can create own unicorns-run universe and orient oneself in it, instead of facing hard cold reality of a serious geopolitics which is formed by cold reality of power-balance which rests on the foundation of the sound economic theory. Even in 2007 the United States had a chance to change the world. It failed to do so because, as history shows, it can not learn even from own brilliant men and women. But I repeat myself. In conclusion, I increasingly begin to arrive to the point of view expressed by Karen Shakhnazarov that the whole "oil war" thing was conceived not by Saudis alone, but with the US blessing. We all know the result, don't we. It was forecast and anticipated in Russia.
Of course, strategic planning is like that Electronic Countermeasure Thingy--that is if you have enough power to do so (hint: nobody has)--you can drown in noise pretty much a whole frequency spectrum in which combat electronics worked, works or will work. That will be not only modern iteration of Lope De Vega's (or if one wishes ancient Greek's fable) famous play of The Dog in the Manger, where one doesn't use whatever is at his disposal but also doesn't allow this whatever to be used by others. It is stupid, it is extremely energy consuming and in the end you suppress your own capabilities. But, of course, there is another way and this one goes way beyond Electronic Warfare, where modern ECM and ECCM systems detect, identify and counter almost instantaneously any kind of threat in a narrow frequency band. This applies to pretty much everything in life and is known, of course, as OODA loop. Ah those Observe and Orient truisms, when Colonel Boyd was writing about it he, of course, meant that whoever does this OO routine is observing and orienting oneself within reality. This art, however, as I preach for years, has been lost in the US for a long time now, while in other quarters this art transitioned as an organic part into the fully blown establishment dealing with this Observing and Orienting. No, it is not just intelligence alone, albeit it is part of it, very important at that, it is a whole complex of state and even private institutions who look dramatically different from the inside than all of the US think tankdom which is designed for merely one purpose: through providing sinecures for all kinds of characters from US military-political-intelligence and even business top to push all kinds of political agendas by means of "research" which, depending on who finances it, may, often does, arrive to mutually exclusive conclusions. Iraq's WMD, you know, cough-cough....
I vividly recall triumphalist declarations in all kinds of US compost media ranging from said Bloomberg to NYT, to all kinds of neoliberal globalist rags, on how Russia is about to go broke and Putin is going to lose his grip on power and how riots are about to break out in Russia, so you get the gist of this narrative, another false one in a long-long record of US media and "analysts" who do not seem to be able to get a grip. At that time, however, few paid attention to a rather calm and nonchalant predictions of Russia's energy minister Novak that things will come back to normal for Russia (and this normal is around $40 per barrel) really soon. Well, looks like Novak and this ever "losing popularity" Putin knew better. I will go out an a limb here and even propose such a ridiculous (not really) idea that Russians knew the essence of the game very-very early. Sometime early last year, I guess. And here is the point, yes, there is Moscow Stock Exchange, but it is primarily for as bunch which stole things in 1990s and nobody really gives a flying fvck, including Russia's government, about what is going on at Moscow's Stock Exchange. Feel the difference with the Western World? Yep, it is all about reality. And reality is such that Russian "liberda", which is a pretencious copy of American moneyed class, lost it big time.
Make no mistake, most of them are losers by definition and they exist only because Russians are civilized people and decided that they indeed reached the limit on revolutions. But get this:
Sunday, May 17, 2020
Siluanov Sings A Song.
Among most hated people in Russia who are associated closely with a catastrophe of 1990s and the so called "liberal" reforms, and who still remain important government figures, two stand out. One is a chairman of Russia's Central Bank Elvira Nabiulina and Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. I omit here all kinds of freaks such as German Gref or Anatoly Chubais who are not government employees, nor Alexei Kudrin is really a person who decides much at his position of a Chairman of the Accounting Chamber, albeit, he is an excellent auditor and that, realistically, is where he should remain. Anton Siluanov, however, is a permanent fixture of Russian government for years and years and he is a designated main "liberal" there. It is more remarkable then to hear such admissions from him such as this (made around 10 days ago) in his interview to Vedomosti:
Translation: About five years ago, if Urals brand of oil would have had a price of $15--meaning the the budget wouldn't have received a cent of oil-gas profits--that would have been crisis. Nowadays, we don't pay attention to oil that much, because all necessary financial buffers have been created and even with the price of $10 per barrel we would have survived. That is the past war and we are prepared to it, today we have a challenge of absolutely new scale... now our main task is defending health and lives of people.
It is down right fascinating hearing a person with such background speaking in these terms and increasingly changing the modality of this rather new political tune. This change reflects, obviously, a fundamental shift which occurred within Russian political class against the background of COVID-19. Urals, as of now, fluctuates around $29-30 a barrel, a price, which is fairly comfortable for Russia's budget (and economy), not to mention the geopolitical fallout from Saudis shredding their budget while not forgetting to buy US assets, including in US energy. Funny world we all live in. This world being funny, however, does not negate a grim reality, which was predicted, and cannot be denied anymore:
Just read the whole article and at this stage keep in mind this simple fact that the issue is NOT about if it is now 2.4 million barrels per day the US oil cut--not at all--but if, as also was predicted, the cut will be along the lines of somewhere between 5-6.5 mbpds. That is the issue, once the US will resign to the fact that it is back to being net-importer of energy. The fact is, no matter what President Trump intended, the economic and geopolitical reality is ruthless--it is not affected by lies, spin, misreporting of many Western media, unless we are talking about some segments of Western clueless public, and reality is constituted by a combination and interplay of factors many of which never make out into the light of public attention. Or putting it in simple lingo--Russians became better, much better, capitalists than Americans. They also retained most of skills in running the country with a high level of government intervention, when needed. This is the lesson in adapting which probably will not be learned. In real world silly intentions and faith in a magic ability to wish problems away do not work. Never did, albeit some in US still believe in this "magic", like this moron who passes in the US for "diplomat", who was charged with "fighting" ISIS.
This is everything one needs to know about US foreign policy both in economic and military terms, but then again, one is free to browse the whole thesis by this cretin here. It is a tour de force of sheer incompetence and delusion. But then again, US has a rich history of supporting all kinds of humanitarian terrorists, so it is not surprising that this glorious tradition is preserved by people like Jeffrey and his ilk. In the end, it is also possible to declare in media anything one wants, facts on the ground be damned. It seems the neocon schizophrenia is a feature of the American political discourse and it will run the US into the ground--in the end, it is not far from its final destination. As one pundit observed:
Well, he describes here typical psychopaths--a dominant type in US politics and in the world turned upside down, failure IS success, and murder IS a gift of life. After all, many Nazi leaders were excellent family men and cared deeply about their faith, country and treated others with respect. The only difference--they WERE taken seriously by others and ended up on the stand as war criminals, responsible for tens of millions killed. People like Jefferey--and they infest D.C.--may end up helping to kill hundreds of millions, not to speak of billions. In this case, we may, if we survive, state that their careers were a total success.
Thursday, May 7, 2020
Let Me Be A Bit... Thoughtful.
Like in Hm. I am deeply into thinking deeply deep thoughts.
Could this, today:
And this:
Be related to this:
Oh boy, you gotta love the work of analytical analysts because they constantly seem to be "caught somewhat offguard" in their analysis. I don't remember who said it (it is an American, I believe, truism) that Russians do not even take a dump without a plan. The first tell-tale sign of a larger plan than mere "oil war", for which Saudis not only will but are already taking the fall, was when Saudis started directly talking about Russia as part of the family. I noted a week ago:
Moreover, if that wasn't enough, there are news of Russia and Turkey negotiating conditions for second shipment of S-400 to Turkey, including Turkey's partial localization of some elements for S-400 is ongoing and actively at that (in Russian). You see, as I say non-stop: in REAL life, REAL policies are conducted in tangibles, or in real quid-pro-quo. Geopolitical favor is also a serious tangible. Moreover, the main reserve currency today is not even USD--let all those financiers think that--it is a political stability which has real value. This is the highest level valuation in which purely monetary rules do not apply. In the end, Russia can sell to Saudis, say couple of regiments of S-400 together with Tor or S1, not only in USD, but in Euros or even in Yuans. In fact, anyone can trade with Russia in whatever the currency they prefer--Pound Sterling? Who said no? Rubles? Absolutely. Saudis will need (in fact they already badly need) "guns for hire" and there is only one country which can fit the bill. "We have always been at war with Eurasia"(c).
Donald Trump today offered Russia help with Covid-19 outbreak--a really nice gesture. All this against the background of this:
Can we now expect some real movement on charging everyone knows who with treason and sedition? It is about time. If this happens, we may indeed talk about a significant event, apart from economic depression, in modern American history which will have profound global ramifications. That may open a window, as it is most times the case in major crises, for some interesting opportunities which MUST be discussed among big players in what is commonly referred today as Yalta 2.0. This may be the only chance to formalize new geopolitical reality and avoid a major war.
Thursday, April 30, 2020
Guns For Hire?
I stumbled on this just now and was compelled to ask myself a question about purely military-strategic and operational matter: if Saudi Arabia really is afraid (I heard it to be the case) of Iran, what security arrangement thus becomes a most sensible one for her? Get this:
It is a very loaded statement which shows both an American oil industry desperation and, simultaneously, extreme limitations, bar some clandestine operation to remove MBS, in measures the United States can take to "motivate" Saudis to dance to the appropriate tune. Considering Saudis' very real fear of Iran and her influence in the region and the fact that US anti-Iranian sanctions have a lot of Saudi "juice" behind them (not just Israeli one) and that Saudi-Iranian "relations" can only be described as Cold War with all "proxies" involved as a result, one has to ask the question, a purely theoretical (I stress this) one: if Iran was forced, could she devastate Saudi oil (and only viable) industry and mount a massive attack on Saudi state institutions? The answer is really simple--if push comes to shove Iran can disrupt with a dramatic effect Saudi oil production and wipe out storage facilities in several salvos of ballistic and cruise missiles and the United States which has Patriot AD complexes in Saudi Arabia will be able to do very little to prevent it. Simple as that. Iran doesn't need, objectively, to "invade" Saudi Arabia to push her over the threshold of economic chaos and, likely, palace coup if not outright revolution.
Here comes this purely operational consideration: apart from the United States being royally pissed with MBS', and Saudis' in general, irrational behavior (nothing unexpected here, plus the US has this propensity to have among her allies a lowest scum of the Earth), the reality is very simple: if US is provoked to attack Iran, first localities which are getting devastated are US bases in the region and Saudi oil fields and storage facilities. Simple as that. What will be the "weight" of those salvos is a matter for pure speculations, what is clear, however, that Iran has enough of them and with a very good guidance packages to conduct a prolonged operation against variety of regional targets with very high effectiveness, that is to say decent rate of "leakers" against the most sophisticated air and anti-missile defenses the United States can deploy. In the end, nobody cancelled good ol' over-saturation method of overcoming any defenses. Do Saudis know about that? I don't know, they, let's be frank here, suck at everything related to operation of modern technology, let alone combat one. But one thing is clear--not only the United States cannot defend Saudis in case of an actual (God forbids) war, but the United States itself, including through Saudi lobbying, which is as prevalent in D.C. as Israeli one (I don't know what is current going rate for US Congressman or Senator on the market, but Saudis do have cash, for now), may unleash such a war which will not only result in US catastrophic losses against Iran, but will see Saudi's oil treasure burned by a variety of means ranging from missile strikes to oil fields sabotage, which inevitably will lead to disintegration of KSA as such.
Hm. Thus the question--a very practical one--who can built a proper and effective air and anti-missile defense for Saudis' main treasure while simultaneously restraining Iran. In the end, he bottom line is always not how you live, however important, but if you live at all. Saudis, certainly, saw how certain country conducts object and area defense operations and how she uses both military and diplomatic power to "calm things down" in the country, to he North, infested with Saudis' very own Al Qaeda and Qatar's very own ISIS. They know how it goes there. But then again, Saudis were in the market for technology which actually works for a while:
So, you get my drift, right? As I say all the time--in matters of life and death nobody cares how shiny things are, everyone needs and wants the only one thing which matter--a thing which saves your life. That begins to explain a funny statements from Saudis few days ago when talking about Russia being "a family" and that close families always settle their quarrels amicably. You know, all kinds of statements of this nature from the highest power levels of Saudi elites. So, in this case, let me go out on a limb here and propose that Saudis may, actually, have been thinking about changing their posse for a while. In the end, Saudis' main enemy in the region, Iran that is, is in a fairly close relations to Russia who does have some influence on Iran. This influence is, if anything else, dramatically in Saudis' favor because Russia not only doesn't want a war in the region, but has enough wherewithal politically, economically and militarily to, indeed, calm things down. Moreover, behind Russia, which is taking Saudi's share of oil market, is rich China, with her global trade plans. So, Saudis, I am sure are thinking deeply now if they have to go out looking for new guns for hire. Especially, since Russia is openly in this business selling the most desirable, most coveted and most valuable product globally--political stability. How Russia does this, you all know, I write about this for years. In this case, Trump's threats of denying Saudi Arabia American "protection" may not be necessarily a bad news for at least some segments of Saudi princes who surely know where their instincts for survival lead them.
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
Basic Arithmetic.
$250,000 x number of days. Say, one month of renting such a storage will cost you $250,000 x 30= $7,500,00. Boy, I am in the wrong business, can I get myself a tanker to rent out? There you go, everything you need to know about current state of the oil war and availability of the oil storage in the United States.
Daily fluctuations of plus-minus 5-7% of the oil price mean absolutely nothing because price corridor is visible and, most likely, will stay more or less stable for months to come. This hurts, so much so that some cretin came up today with this.
Paul Brandus, who wrote this butt-hurt drivel has an "impressive" by Western "standards" background, and you guessed it right--in journalism. American journalism, I stress, no less. And, of course, Brandus has it exactly backwards when he bundles Saudi Arabia and Russia together, especially when stating a deliberate lies that Russia needs "petrodollar". It is Saudi Arabia which needs it, Russia doesn't need it at all. In fact, as already has been stated not for once, and even this loser Brandus admits it:
If the Russians were out to inflict pain on the U.S. oil patch, they’ve succeeded. But what happens over the long term? If Moscow thinks they’re going to put the Americans out of business, they’d better think again.
The issue here is not "inflicting" pain on US "oil patch"--at issue for Russia here is what to do with a gigantic bubble of financial trash, aka US Dollar and US T-bills, in the nearest future since once this bubble begins to deflate, the issue of petrodollar, which is being obliterated as I type this, will be of secondary importance. This is happening precisely because Russia, in a long run, doesn't need petrodollar and views it as a main driver behind a financial catastrophe which is in progress. Russia and China, as an example, long ago, have no problem with Rubles and Yuan oil trade.
But, of course, Brandus, being a journo, doesn't read news which he doesn't like. That is why he doesn't get it, that specifically for Russia "killing" US shale is a secondary aim, not to speak of oil market being artificially "elevated" precisely to keep shale oil alive. In other words, there was no real economic sense in propping up inherently economically senseless US shale oil by pouring billions of nonreturnable loans into it. And then, of course, there is this "power element" which goes missing in Brandus' moan, because Saudis are expendable in this big geopolitical transformation and nobody would cry if this backward shithole of a country disintegrates tomorrow, Russia is a completely different player--the only country which can wipe the United States off the map, and which has excellent real industry and real economy which even such radically pro-Western neo-liberal fundamentalists as Kudrin begin to believe in (in Russian).
Remarkably, it is precisely US client state, Saudi Arabia, the pillar on which petrodollar rests, which is most interested in killing US shale oil. Russia here is just for the ride, doing what any sensible strategist would do--use someone's efforts, in this particular case by bat shit crazy MBS to improve own position. An additional benefit, so to speak, easily gained through the effort of others. In the end, Russia doesn't operate in tankers on the scale of Saudis:
So my suggestion to Brandus is to calm down and start learning about how real geoeconomics, geopolitics and power balance form and work, before expressing his opinions on any Russia's topic because it is the only country which realistically holds world from sliding into a global war. Especially when one operates with such numbers, which even 4 months ago would have been inconceivable, but then again--I warned, the time of real valuation of economy is coming:
Does Mr. Brandus even know when such numbers happened before? Right, before World War Two. But that would require at least some brief acquaintance with the nature of conflict and warfare. So, no matter what Brandus and his ilk write on the issue, they will never grasp a full picture of the current events and they better pray that these events remain only in the realm of economic conflict without spilling into the realm of a practical military confrontation, which is far closer than Mr.Brandus can ever wrap his brain around. Especially when proper valuation of the US economy completes and we all will see the actual scale of devastation inflicted upon majority of Americans as a result of mindless and criminal robbery by the American financial class.
Monday, April 27, 2020
I Like This Headline.
LOL.
Russia Steals Chinese Oil Market Share From Saudi Arabia
Oh boy, the number of sore losers out there is simply staggering. The only question one is forced to ask is, what about competition, people? What about this main founding principle of capitalism and of market as a place where one competes against others for the share of the said market? In related news--there is some opinion out there (you can find it if you want, I will not name a source) that Russia simply followed the game of Saudis in this oil war. Sure, Saudis will take the fall and formally they are the main driver behind attempts (successful, actually) to kill US shale oil, but Russia was not a reactive power in that. I don't buy for a second that Russians didn't calculate consequences of their refusal to to extend OPEC+ agreement in Vienna this March. I don't buy it, neither Putin, nor Sechin, nor Novak look like dupes who are not briefed by Russian Intelligence Community on the state of the affairs in the energy field and who didn't account for the worst case scenario. I don't buy it for a second. Why? Recall Russia "adjusting" her budget for $20 per barrel price of oil. One detail, to re-write the budget for such nation as Russia is a matter of not just days, but weeks, or even months. Yet, the speed with which this budget, evidently, has been already rewritten is a testimony to the fact that this whole shitstorm was anticipated. Why? here is funny "coincidence" today.
Of course, everyone was affected negatively in this oil crisis, Russia is no exception, but the game is a typical Russian one, the winner is the one who is affected less and is standing in the end. Maybe because Russians know that in war, any war, being untouched by it is a fantasy, not reality. As for Russia "stealing" the Chinese market--I don't know under what stone those journos and "analysts" resided in the last 6-7 years but it is about time for them to admit to themselves that they are full o' shit--a defining characteristic of Western media and think-tankdom--and are good for nothing other than pure propaganda.
As I already stated, the game is much more than about oil markets, it is about new world order which emerges as a result of the severe, unsolvable, crisis of liberalism and this is just the start. Oil market is but one of the links in a long chain of events which were set in motion in the Autumn of the last year. Covid-19 simply triggered the avalanche. Per this, obviously some recovery of economies of the United States and EU will happen, plus many things which we all got used to will return, as will return air-travel and some form of tourism, as will price for the oil rise to around $40 per barrel, but that will be already a different world in which ideological economic and geopolitical orthodoxies will be utterly destroyed and the volume (eleven, really) of butt-hurt in Anglo media, such as globalist Financial Times or any other pseudo-analytical outlets is the greatest testimony that the world has already changed and will change even more. I would suggest to the staff of NYT or WaPo to start looking for the jobs as lawn mowers, or Walmart night shift shelf stokers, because the process which will relegate them to those positions has started. Plus, I, being naive, am still waiting for the indictments from AG Barr of those Russigate (ahem, coup d'etat) perpetrators. But as I said, I am very naive.
Sunday, April 26, 2020
One Doesn't Need To Be...
An oil industry specialist (I am certainly not one--I stress it all the time), to understand how and why, as even oil-ignorant me warned about Saudis being royally fvcked once they initiated the oil war. Recall what I wrote exactly a month ago:
You see, even such oil ignoramuses like me knew that Saudis are minor players in this game because only people with nukes, navies, air forces and complex industrial economies of scale are major players. Well, guess what:
It is kinda self-evident that it is not enough to have product, one has to sell it, has market for it that is, and Russia has her markets, while Saudis are having a hell of a time trying to hold on to ones they...ahem, had. Don't trust me:
Russia knew from the get go that China will have to reposition herself towards Russia's energy (and not just oil) because neither tanker oil, nor LNG can compete with pipelines, especially the ones which are already built and operational, not to speak of a cluster of gigantic Russian processing plants being built right on China's threshold to provide all needs not only in crude and gas but in high value added products of hydrocarbons processing. You know, like Amur Gas Processing Plant. And then, and then... there are Indian Ocean SLOCs which cannot be defended by China once mighty US Navy's submarine force is given the order to interrupt Gulf's oil supplies to China. And yes, there is always Russia and her Armed Forces which can secure supply of necessary energy to China. So, simple--just one look at the map is enough to understand. And we even are not talking about nuclear energy part. Yes, about that: reading today about Rosatom (in Russian), I stumbled on this startling number about legendary MIFI's (MEPhI) international enrollment. While all kinds of fraudster rating agencies in the West blow smoke up our assess creating all kinds of university ratings, among Turkish students the competition for a single vacancy in MIFI reaches 72 applicants.
So, Russian-Chinese relations are going to be growing not just because out of pure economic sense but geopolitical too. Or geoeconomical one, if one wishes. It seems that China finally understood who real friends are or, as they say in Caucasus, close neighbor is closer than the remote relative. As for oil wars, they are just but one episode of a much larger (and by much I mean order of magnitude) global realignment which involves way-way more than just actual oil, not to speak of worthless speculative papers aka futures, but a strategic reorientation of the world towards nuclear energy and, eventually, transition to a manned exploration of the Solar System.
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
Tangibles, Yet Again.
A little piece of news today.
At a time of weak economic growth and increased market volatility, analysts are getting more bullish on gold. According to Bank of America, the precious metal is headed 78 percent higher, to hit $3,000 per ounce in 18 months.“As economic output contracts sharply, fiscal outlays surge, and central bank balance sheets double, fiat currencies could come under pressure. And investors will aim for gold,” the bank’s analysts said, adding that the US Federal Reserve has provided enough momentum to propel investment demand and prices higher. They have warned that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet as a percentage of GDP could rise 20 percent to 40 percent this year. They’ve also pointed out that the Fed “Can’t print gold.”
You gotta love this fancy BS "financial" lingo: "momentum", "economic output", "investment demand". What a load of a contrived BS. To put it in simpler words--paper, from dollars to all kinds of "paper gold" (certificates, not physical gold) and stocks are worthless because they are.... well, papers which merely reflect the mood of moneyed class, which, while being moneyed, is not very bright, to put it mildly, and believes in all kinds of fairy tales about "financial markets". But once crapola begins to hit the fan in earnest one needs to "hide" whatever "investment"--yeah, let's call greed and speculation that--one has accumulated in something which will not be burned, literally and figuratively, in the furnace of financial voodoo going off the ritual script completely.
Now, The Donald in a futile attempts to keep his "promise" to resurrect a corpse of a deceased US shale oil, and reading this fresh news:
Of course, definition of "harassment" is a tricky one, but what do ya know, one has to do what one has to do trying to raise the price by any means. There is, however, a larger picture begins to emerge since the question of "who is winning" in oil war is not even on the agenda anymore, albeit Canadian oil analysts arrive to this conclusion:
Decided to employ his old (and only) trick in an attempt to "raise the price" and ordered:
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he has ordered the Navy to “shoot down and destroy” any Iranian gunboats that harass U.S. ships, a directive that comes a week after the Navy reported a group of Iranian boats made “dangerous and harassing approaches” to American vessels in the Persian Gulf. Trump did not cite a specific event in his tweet or provide details. The White House had no immediate comment. The U.S. Navy’s Bahrain-based 5th Fleet referred questions about the tweet to the Pentagon, and the Pentagon referred questions to the White House.Boy, you have to admire Donald's insouciance, that he has put US Navy professionals into stupor because "shooting down" gunboats requires a rather vivid imagination and a strict diet of fantasy novels for a long time in order to exist in the world of flying ships, magical spells and alternative realities. This is not to mention the fact that there are some practices in the maritime law, such as following other ships in neutral waters (I know, been there, done that), which are by no means forbidden and, in fact, are normal practice, like this, with Royal Navy's frigate shadowing Russian navy's corvettes:
North American producers are getting crushed as a flood of oil is expected to keep prices depressed for longer.RBC Capital Markets expects U.S. shale production to fall 1.5 million barrels per day. The bank says that the producers it is tracking have slashed 2020 investments by more than US$70 billion (about 30 per cent of total) since the beginning of March.“Meanwhile, temporary production shut-ins are already underway amid refinery run cuts due to collapsing refined product demand and ballooning storage levels,” RBC said. “We expect U.S. refinery utilization rates to fall from about 70 per cent currently to 60 per cent — and potentially further — as the second-quarter unfold.”No, the issue is broader, especially when one considers those funny statements from Saudis about Russia "being a part of the family" and that "families always overcome quarrels", just google that, the issue is US financial "empire" is at stake. Indeed, when one has these kind of forecasts:
All told, North American production could contract by 2.64 million bpd this year, with OPEC shut-ins at around 575,000 bpd, according to data gleaned from RBC and Rystad. “As storage fills up, countries are being forced to shut-in production on a large scale to counteract a theoretical oversupply of 21 million bpd in 2Q20,” said Rystad Energy senior oil market analyst Teodora Cowie.And increasing trade in local currencies between major players (as an example, find videos of Putin's visit to Kaliningrad and his stern demand to transfer all operations by ports into Rubles), plus parallel introduction of alternatives to SWIFT, all of it indicates that the world cannot run anymore on fairy tales but needs tangibles to find its new footing and for that, as they say, Petrodollar Delendum Est. I begin to believe that the plan for that was in place from the get go and was merely adjusted for the severity.
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