... the draft-dodger in chief being obsessed, as are most US politicians and military, with Iran.
As if it is something new.
Oil prices jumped more than 8% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the United States would reinstate its blockade on Iran, forcing traders to once again price in the risk of prolonged disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude climbed above $82 per barrel during afternoon trading, gaining more than 8%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surged past $77 per barrel. Monday’s surge wiped out most of the losses that followed last month’s ceasefire, pushing Brent back above $82 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) above $77 as traders responded to the renewed fighting.
I am not a specialist in oil, but even I can grasp consequences, especially considering military dynamics in the Gulf where the US is stuck in the trap and cannot free itself from the inexorable march of history. The signs are clear, especially considering an appalling "effectiveness" of the US so called air (lack of) defense.
Meanwhile, Russian and Chinese navies train.
... especially London which saw its bet (a house that is) burn.
Oil and gas revenues of the federal budget in April increased by 239 billion rubles, or almost 40%, according to data published by the Ministry of Finance. The reason for the increase in fees is the price of Urals, which increased in March (taxes are paid with a monthly lag) to $77 per barrel. This is the first monthly increase in oil and gas revenues caused by the conflict in the Middle East that began at the end of February. In May, additional revenues should grow further - in April, Russian oil cost an average of $95 per barrel. In general, for the four months of 2026, the subsidence of oil and gas budget revenues by the same period in 2025 still remains, but then it will decrease rapidly. In April, federal budget tax revenues from the production and sale of oil and gas amounted to 855.6 billion rubles, which is 238.6 billion rubles, or 39%, more than it was in March, follows from the data released by the Ministry of Finance on May 6.
How much is R 1 Trillion, which Russia will surpass just about today or tomorrow. People who still do primitive math in USD will necessarily divide 1 trillion by a current Ruble to USD exchange rate and will get roughly $ 13.5 billion. Still huge sum but completely misleading, because Russians do not really pay that much attention to USD domestically and they love their Rubles, which, when adjusted for at least PPP, which still doesn't reflect the economic reality, because these Rubles will be spent primarily domestically, the actual "volume" of this sum grows dramatically.
E.g. This is the newest pr. 885M (Yasen M class) submarine Perm'. At the outset it is a designated carrier of 3M22 Zircon and its further modifications.
So, for a "final blow" and those who still don't get the message. Of course, Russia has poverty and poor people, of course Russia has shit-holes. Everybody does, but what is being missed constantly--outright extreme wealth in Russia is not admired, especially when flaunted. Yet, lookie-lookie, that's from the World Bank.
... on 404 harebrained scheme, you know--Russians being bogged down in 404 quagmire, Putin's "regime collapse", Russian people "rising" and other BS emanating from all those UK "think-tanks" and (lack of)intel places like MI6 and Chatham House. All this was conceived as UK's easy access to Russia's cheap resources and enriching its degenerate financial and political classes. But something went wrong.
UK 10-year gilt yields topped 5% for the third time since the Iran war started, after Brent crude climbed above $111 following the breakdown of ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran. Britain's government borrowing costs have risen more than any other developed economy over the past two months, with the two-year gilt up over a full percentage point since the start of March. Analysts warn the UK is uniquely exposed to the energy shock given its dependence on oil and gas imports and a decade of above-target inflation, with the UK-U.S. yield spread now at 70 basis points.
Hm, what went wrong, I wonder? Nah, I don't. We all know what went wrong--sheer idiocy and incompetence of British "elites" who swallowed hook, line and sinker all this crap about NATO's military "might", Russia's weakness and other fairy tales which have many a Ph.D thesis defended on them in all kinds of the UK "elite" degree mills.
And, of course, losers from City cannot live with this torment of recognizing that London, bar some touristy places, is a shithole, UK is a small Island with no resources and that Russia is global superpower and UK is not. Not even close. But the most devastating fact for them is this:
No, this is not collision. This is stumping a real hyena of Europe. Many attribute this epithet to Poland when Churchill mentions Poland's "appetite like hyena's" prior to WW II in his memoirs. Reality, however, is different--WW II was Germany's "product" and Third Reich's appetites have been global. Germany learned absolutely nothing and in the post-WW II period and in its EU phase successfully stripped many European countries of their wealth and industries. Now, Germany, through Nazi offsprings, controls also European Commission. Unlike Germans, Russians learned their lessons and they now know that Germany is an existential enemy of Russia and no normal relations can exist between the two countries.
ASTANA, April 22 - RIA Novosti. Kazakhstan has not received official information from Russia about the termination of the transit of Kazakh oil through the Druzhba pipeline to Germany, said the Minister of Energy of the Republic Yerlan Akkenzhenov. Earlier, Reuters reported thatRussiawill allegedly stop the transit of Kazakh oil toGermanyon the Druzhba oil pipeline from May 1 of this year. Press Secretary of the President of RussiaDmitry PeskovThe day before, he indicated that he was not ready to answer this question and needed to contact the "appropriate companies".
But then, RIA continues:
"There have been no official statements from the Russian side yet. But according to unofficial sources, we know that this is true. For the month of May, we have transit through Atyrau-Samara, then the Druzhba oil pipeline and then goes to the Schwedt plant (refinery in Germany - ed.). We have zero in May," Akkenzhenov said.
Russia doesn't want to kill Germans. But Germany is existential enemy of Russia and is doing all it can to unleash another war on the continent apart from SMO. In this case, in order to not physically annihilating Germany, the other, more humane way is to choke off Berlin until it either removes its political regime and comes to its senses, or ... well, you know the drill or as Vladimir Putin stated, and I quote, this is full quote unlike snippets from Western media whores:
"We are not going to fight with Europe, I have already said this a hundred times. But if Europe suddenly wants to fight and starts, we are ready right now. With Ukraine, we are acting there surgically, carefully, so that... well, I understand, right? This is not a war in the direct, modern sense of the word. If Europe suddenly wants to start a war and starts it, then a situation may very quickly arise in which we will have no one to negotiate with"
While there is a talk of Kazakh oil being "redistributed" and that it "doesn't affect" anything and is "purely technical issue", the message is clear--Russia can make Europe's life miserable even without weapons. In related news:
... something.
Paper Oil Blinks While Physical Supply Tightens.
So do military paper tigers of economy of derivatives and financial legerdemain. Again, what is "market", anybody believes this BS anymore?
- Oil market volatility is easing as traders adjust to geopolitical headlines, though prices still spike on major developments like failed U.S.–Iran talks and the Hormuz blockade.
- Despite calmer futures trading, the physical oil market remains extremely tight, with up to 10 million bpd trapped and spot prices surging far above futures.
- Ongoing blockades and supply disruptions are prolonging the crisis, pushing energy prices higher and delaying any meaningful market normalization.
The leader of coalition party Freedom and Direct Democracy, Tomio Okamura, says one solution to high energy and fuel costs would be to take gas and oil from Russia. Speaking to TV Nova, Mr. Okamura – who is also speaker of the lower house – said this would allow Czechia to diversify its sources once again and to guarantee its energy security. This call has been rejected by members of the previous government, who ended Czech dependency on imports from Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ex-PM Petr Fiala called on current government head Andrej Babiš to disown talk of such “collaborationist” cooperation with Moscow.
... stupid prizes. West's economies are paraded for what they are--low industry, high speculation ... well, Ponzi schemes.
The legendary derivatives trading team at Vitol Group, the world’s largest oil trader, has reportedly lost hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars on oil bets that went very wrong as the war in the Middle East roiled global markets and trapped physical supply at the Strait of Hormuz. Vitol’s star trader Yaoyao Liu found himself on the wrong side of bets on crude and fuel prices at the start of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, as prices soared in the worst disruption of global oil supply in history, the Wall Street Journal reports, quoting sources with knowledge of the matter. Liu’s trades are reportedly a closely-guarded secret not only on the market but also within Vitol itself.
Derivatives, a euphemism for speculation, which modern West's capital is and real economy are as removed from each-other as Milky Way is removed from Andromeda. As American Way of War is removed from actual war. Now they are doing betting, instead of studying markets and real conditions and outputs. The result is predictable. E.g.
... the US anymore.
But Mikhail Mishustin, Russia's Prime Minister--a motor behind Russia's economic growth--speaking to his cabinet today talks about ...
Here is the state of the US today:
... on this one. "Experts" with internet and "business degrees" try to cope. So, this one invents the problem where there is none.
Oil Rally Gives Russia an Excuse to Delay Crucial Budget Reform. Russia was all set to tighten the screws on its own oil dependence, but the oil price spike is causing it to rethink its plan. Moscow has hit pause on planned changes to its budget rule, the mechanism designed to shield state finances from violent oil price swings. The idea was to lower the oil price threshold that determines when the National Wellbeing Fund gets tapped, forcing the government to rely less on energy windfalls. That now looks less urgent with oil doing the heavy lifting. As of March 24, the market is doing Russia a favor. Brent is sitting at $103.46, WTI at $92.29, both sharply higher as the Middle East conflict continues to choke flows through the Strait of Hormuz. For a petrostate running a war budget, that kind of price environment buys breathing room—at least on paper. But this is classic Russia: long-term reform meets short-term cash, and guess which one wins.
“I know a large number of absolutely wonderful financiers, economists who used to be not very good engineers, but I don’t know a single, even not a very good one, engineer who used to be good financier or economist.”
... on Gulfies and India. Especially India.
Russia, instead of leaving India to sleep in the bed it made with Israel, highlighted its readiness to support India, but at a cost. For instance, earlier in March (around March 4), sources indicated Russia was prepared to divert oil cargoes (e.g., ~9.5 million barrels near Indian waters) and potentially raise India’s share of Russian crude imports to up to 40%. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned receiving “signals of renewed interest” from India in larger volumes due to the crisis. Amid the surge in demand for Russia’s Urals crude, Russia hit India with a firm, but diplomatic, reminder of the cost of betraying a friend. Prior to the attack on Iran, Russia sold oil to India with deep discounts ($10-13 below Brent pre-conflict). While promising to help India compensate for its loss of Persian Gulf oil, Russia inoformed Modi that India would have to pay a premium of $4-5 over Brent for March/April deliveries. This reflects market forces rather than explicit “assurances” of continued discounts; some reports frame it as Russia treating it more as “business” without prior friendship-based concessions.
A reminder (again):
... "exactly" as Donnie "planned", right? Ayatollah Sistani (another Senior Ayatollah) issued Jihad Fetwa against Israel and the US. It is a second one--you need three fetwas from senior ayatollahs for Jihad to start. The third one is from ... yep, is expected from the son of murdered Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been elected a spiritual leader of Iran. I wonder what will he say? Nah, I don't.
... whatever they want. But as some media report, these are Europeans when they recognized that there will be no gas from Qatar and no gas from Russia.
OSLO, March 3 (Reuters) - The impact on energy flows of U.S. and Israeli military attacks on Iran and Iran's drone and missile launches against its neighbours could reopen debate in the European Union over banning Russian natural gas imports, Norway's energy minister said on Tuesday. European gas prices have jumped 75% this week, hitting multi-year highs as hostilities in and around Iran have impacted gas exports from the Gulf.
Europe can surely "reopen debate" and debate this debate until hell freezes over, but as Russian anecdote goes about a single babushka being a lone seller of sunflower seeds at the completely empty marketplace--responding to a dude who complained that her sunflower seeds are too expensive, she suggested him to "walk around the market, find a better price".
Poor, poor dear this Mark Champion (a rather pretentious second name for a guy who is a sore loser) of Bloomberg, he laments:
The only winner in the US and Israel's conflict with Iran is Putin, writes Bloomberg. Columnist Mark Champion argues that US Navy strikes on Iranian targets reduce the likelihood of arms supplies to Ukraine and deplete American missile stocks. This also fuels the rise in global oil and gas prices, which benefits Russia. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could revive the market for Russian energy, providing an opportunity to sell unsold oil.
This is what happens when you have a fraudulent "degree" from Georgetown in "Russian studies" and know nothing but more or less proper grammar when writing about things you have no clue about. We knew it was bad, but now it does disintegrate and the only thing they have left is spin. US legacy media are complicit in covering up pedophilia and what amounts to a treason by ruling class, because of that they are one and the same. There is no distinction. Per Macron and France ... LOL.
... human minds and the movement of celestial bodies.
Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who is President Donald Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, appeared Thursday on Newsmax to discuss the president’s economic strategy, which Kellogg says could bring an end to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. During an appearance on “The Record with Greta Van Susteren,” Kellogg said Trump’s economic strategy involves manipulating the global oil market to weaken Russia’s economy. This strategy, Kellogg said, is one possible outcome of Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Trump Tower last year.
Trump's rhetoric and chest thumping is not helping his chances to save US's face in this clusterfuck of a situation. I speak about it in my new video today, and especially about Boltium in the time when Trump was sanctioning Russia left and right and was boasting about him being the most anti-Russian POTUS. Russians have a good memory.
...it has been known for a long time.
In the humiliation of epic proportions the US sanctions on Russia failed miserably and the score of failures continues to grow. The US will now try to, indeed, steal Russia's $300 billion and that will be it for Dollar as the reserve currency. The main pillar of Dollar's status was always the myth of the "finest fighting force in history". Remarkably, this force cannot win a single war and even it allegedly advanced netcentric and comms capabilities it tries to run in Ukraine are being dealt with great efficiency. The latest issue of Military Thought describes what the US tries to accomplish there. Meanwhile:
Hm, how 'bout that. Where are the US Armed Forces to enforce the sanctity of the US Dollar. They should march to Russia and beat the crap out of those Russkies for disregarding USD and doing whatever those nasty Slavic untermenschen do. Damn, even in "defense agreement" with 404 US made sure to have the clause of the US troops not being in 404. Well, we all know the name of the game, don't we? Meanwhile the slaughter of VSU and its "advisers" continues unabated. Somebody will get really rich when he shoots down first F-16. R 15 million is a lot of money. People may say I exhibit all signs of schadenfreude. Wrong! I exhibit signs of a gigantic, uber-delightful schadenfreude.
... anymore.
The global financial landscape is witnessing a seismic shift as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) boldly moves away from the US dollar in its oil trade dealings. This strategic pivot aligns with the broader ambitions of the BRICS economic alliance, of which the UAE is a recent addition. The changeover, involving the transition to local currencies for oil transactions, marks a significant departure from the long-established dollar dominance in the global oil market.
A hint: SMO plays a huge role here. They continue:
The BRICS Influence and UAE’s Strategic Shift: The BRICS bloc, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, recently expanded its membership to include the UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and Argentina. This expansion signifies a growing inclination towards de-dollarization among these nations, a move that challenges the traditional hegemony of the US dollar in international trade.The UAE’s decision to prioritize local currency over the US dollar in new oil deals is a clear reflection of this sentiment. This move isn’t just a mere policy shift; it’s a strategic maneuver in the complex chess game of global economics. By aligning with the BRICS nations, the UAE is not only diversifying its economic partnerships but also reinforcing its position as a global oil powerhouse.
This is the only thing they can do.
I just returned from Russia and nowhere did I find any signs of "suffering". On the contrary, Russians overwhelmingly praise sanctions. It is also difficult to explain to average Western "academic" or journo that Russia is absolutely free in her decisions on oil output and goes about it as she wishes. If London and Washington want to send ships to "enforce" the price cap--they are welcome, let them see what happens. We all know that nothing could be done and price cap failed the first day it was introduced. Now, Russia and SA extended their output cut and here we are today.
Well, I have the answer why creatures like Mead, and even many in the outlet Larison published piece in--Responsible Statecraft--believe this. The answer is simple--99% "degrees" from US universities in history, political science, journalism, economics and other subjects like that are fraud and disqualify overwhelming majority of their bearers from any serious discussion on the subject matter, such as REAL strategy, warfare, resources management and the military history of the XX century. Mead is just a propagandist who has no tool kit to grasp those things, as for Russia Study field--I repeat myself ad nauseam. There is NO such field in the US anymore.
I guess, the unpleasant truth of the US losing economic race to China and military one to Russia will take some time to get internalized, possibly by new US political elites, but even if to assume that, as many report (in Russian), Blinken was in Kiev trying to force Ze to the negotiating table with Russia, one has to keep in mind that Russia has no reasons whatsoever to negotiate anything with Kiev. Election cycle in the US is of no concern to Russia who has written Washington off no matter who comes to power. As for Mead--I have a suggestion, instead of "teaching" Clausewitz and Strategy, he may take basic classes on WWII history, not the BS he teaches, and how real economy works. I do not expect him succeeding studying modern warfare--too complex and requires graduate STEM degree (and clearance), but he may try. Hey, at 60 I learned some basic chords on piano and even know how to play The House of the Rising Sun. But, in all seriousness, most of US "geopolitical" and "strategy" academy should be fired and given jobs as greeters at the Walmart's entrances.
I will soon begin to stutter from repeating a diagnosis--Western "leaders" and their "academe" are capable only of PR, period. They do not have real skills, knowledge or foresight. Now these "academics" are discovering what was told by many people with just common sense, forget about those, like Mr. Novak, who have serious experience and academic background in real things.
For people whose skills do not reach beyond the realm of financial speculation at the Wall Street such a development may come as a surprise. A nasty one at that. You can download this paper here.
Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports
It is a peculiar paper with the set of "recommendations" of what Larry calls "more cowbell". Same ol', same ol'--more sanctions, more restrictions and even lower cap. They DO grow them dumb in "academic" economics realm in the West. Suffice it to say that 99% of Western economics "oracles" predictions about Russia turned out to be utterly delusional. You cannot fix stupid.
Daniel Davies, meanwhile, warns.
Most American retired generals have been proven disastrously wrong most of the time because they do not know what modern war is and, also, because they never won shit in their lives. Come on, when you apply for credit card, let alone for mortgage, the first thing one checks is your credit history, and this is the right thing to do. What IS credit history of America's top brass since Vietnam? Larry summarized it very well in his latest:
America’s Delusional Military Fantasy
You already heard (read) Putin's Executive Order on sales of oil, which effectively cuts the EU and the US off the Russia's oil. No, I mean it--the idiots thought that Russia will kneel and crawl back to Washington to ask for forgiveness. To demonstrate the degree of imbecility--there is no other term for description of West's "elites'" abilities--Die Welt, the rag from the country which is being obliterated economically as I type this, decided to "analyze" Russia's economy.
Translation: Russia's economy is holding up better than expected against Western sanctions. In addition to raw material prices, two groups with almost ideal skills are primarily responsible for this. They tend to reject Putin's aggressive foreign policy and are pursuing a mission.
Die Welt means, of course, drum roll... drum rolling... German Gref and Elvira Nabiullina. You see, this is another proof that you cannot fix stupid. 99% of graduates of Western "economics" departments are morons with zero grasp of modern world, and you know that I speak and write about it non-stop. Herr Steiner who wrote this BS, and whose "education" is in Philology and Russian Literature, is a classic example of European "expert" who has no clue. Most of them don't, yet he waxes strategic just because he may have read Crime and Punishment in Russian and dined with Moscow's beau monde, who themselves are nothing more than parrots of West's ideological platitudes.
Meanwhile,
Somebody, please, explain to cretins in Die Welt that Germany's, and Europe's, prosperity and economic development in the last half-a-century was based almost entirely on Soviet/Russian affordable energy. Hey, when even such moron as Borrell admits:
One has to take a heed, not to mention to at least try to study basic Physics, especially molecular theory of matter and thermodynamics to understand why EU "prosperity" is a thing of the past. One cannot fight laws of physics by issuing political proclamations--the only skill Western political and "intellectual" class have.
That brings us to the issue of SMO and why it is going this way and not the other--very simple, Russia is simply waiting. Waiting for what, you may ask? Obviously for irreversible political changes precipitated by military-economic ones. That is why another fine product of the West's BS academics, Charles Kennedy, reacts so sorely to Mr. Medvedev's fun predictions:
Medvedev’s Absurd Predictions: $150 Oil, A U.S. Civil War, And EU Collapse.
After all, Medvedev, being a troll of the 80th Level, based his predictions on a very real economic and social dynamics of the modern combined West, and it is, pardon my French, a very shitty dynamics all around. Ah, yes, good ol' Dmitry also used to be Russia's both Prime Minister and President and in such a capacity had, still does, the access to the highest state secrets of Russia and knows things we don't know.
And finally to the "revelations" of the Mozart Group's big honcho about Ukraine:
Wait a minute, how could this be, wink, wink?
Translation: MOSCOW, 20 December. /TASS/. Transneft has received applications from Poland and Germany to pump oil for December, 2023 and the first quarter of next year, respectively, despite reports of unwillingness to continue deliveries. This was stated by Transneft President Nikolai Tokarev on Tuesday on the air of the Rossiya-24 TV channel. “They announced that they would not take oil from Russia from January 1. And now we have received applications from Polish consumers: give us 3 million tons next year, and 360 thousand tons for December, and Germany has already submitted an application for the first quarter “Give it to us too,” he said.
Of course, Transneft has a long-term (through 2024) contract with Polish operator Orlen, but... but... what about sanctions, price caps and shit like that? Nah, it is all for the show. The latest EU (9th) "horrible" sanctions cancelled for Russia... succory, acetone and... lasers (here I start to giggle uncontrollably) with... rhododendrons. WTF. This horrifying "package" moved Elena Karaeva to write an acerbic and hilarious piece for Ria (sadly, only in Russian) on this matter. You see, there are reportedly 130 PR agencies from the US alone which are in charge of "spinning" the SMO. But somebody forgot to tell those "experts" that reality is a bitch and no amount of spin can substitute food, heat and military victory. But what do I know?
Meanwhile, the info from Bakhmut is dire for VSU and, without going into long elaborations, there seems to be a nice "little" cauldron forming which will collapse the front. VSU even throws formations from Kherson to Bakhmut. Make your own conclusions. The reports about losses of VSU are mind-boggling even from the actively pro-Kiev regime US "Mozart" group.
Meanwhile:
Somebody needs to tell Gurulev (a very dubious figure to put it mildly) to shut his yapper once in a while, but since the info is out, let's start the stop-watch before "anonymous official" from Pentagon, State Department, CIA, NASA, USDA etc. (take you pick) will tell NYT that they saved Vladimir Putin's life by telling Kiev not to kill him, right;)) So, here we are today.
