They Confabulate...

This is the only thing they can do. 

Russia—after suffering Western oil embargos and price caps on its oil and oil products, has shipped its first crude oil cargo to Brazil in its quest to find more outlets for its fossil fuels. The Aframax tanker Stratos Aurora is now less than 500 miles off the shore of Brazil, according to Bloomberg ship tracking data, carrying 650,000 barrels of Varandey crude oil from the Murmansk port. Russian oil hasn’t been shipped to Brazil since 2016, but sanctions on Russian crude oil, as well as the price cap, have made it difficult for the country to find outlets. 

I just returned from Russia and nowhere did I find any signs of "suffering". On the contrary, Russians overwhelmingly praise sanctions. It is also difficult to explain to average Western "academic" or journo that Russia is absolutely free in her decisions on oil output and goes about it as she wishes. If London and Washington want to send ships to "enforce" the price cap--they are welcome, let them see what happens. We all know that nothing could be done and price cap failed the first day it was introduced. Now, Russia and SA extended their output cut and here we are today. 

Meanwhile, Daniel Larison reacts to Walter Russel Mead's wet fantasies of "wearing Russia down". It has to be reiterated again that Mead is not an academic but shyster from what WSJ calls geopolitics, but let Larison speak:

Wall Street Journal columnist Walter Russell Mead thinks that the right way to wear down Russia in a war of attrition is by attacking Russian interests in far-flung, peripheral areas around the world. Mead claims that “we operate in a target-rich environment” for bringing the “cost of war home to the Kremlin,” and he lays out a series of policies that are either unworkable, counterproductive or useless. Among other things, he calls for the U.S. to “roll up” the Wagner Group in the Sahel, work with Turkey and others to “make Mr. Putin’s presence in Syria ruinously expensive,” bring pressure to bear on Russian forces in Moldova, and “target Mr. Putin’s Latin American allies.”

Even assuming that it was practical and wise for the U.S. to do any of these things, it is hard to see how they would significantly impair Russia’s war effort or aid Ukraine in a war of attrition. If the U.S. managed to make things difficult enough for Russian forces and mercenaries in other parts of the world that it was no longer worth it for Moscow to keep them there, that would just lead to additional resources and manpower being redirected to fighting in Ukraine. It isn’t clear why Mead believes that the U.S. and “its allies in Europe and the Gulf” have the capabilities to eliminate Russian influence in the Sahel. French influence is in retreat in many countries, U.S. partners keep losing control in military coups, and so-called “allies” from the Gulf are not reliably on the same side as the U.S. in political and military crises across Africa. The problem wasn’t that the U.S. and its allies were “standing passively by” but that they were actively pursuing militarized policies that have repeatedly blown up in their faces. Russia has managed to exploit some of the resulting upheaval to its advantage.

Well, I have the answer why creatures like Mead, and even many in the outlet Larison published piece in--Responsible Statecraft--believe this. The answer is simple--99% "degrees" from US universities in history, political science, journalism, economics and other subjects like that are fraud and disqualify overwhelming majority of their bearers from any serious discussion on the subject matter, such as REAL strategy, warfare, resources management and the military history of the XX century. Mead is just a propagandist who has no tool kit to grasp those things, as for Russia Study field--I repeat myself ad nauseam. There is NO such field in the US anymore. 

I guess, the unpleasant truth of the US losing economic race to China and military one to Russia will take some time to get internalized, possibly by new US political elites, but even if to assume that, as many report (in Russian), Blinken was in Kiev trying to force Ze to the negotiating table with Russia, one has to keep in mind that Russia has no reasons whatsoever to negotiate anything with Kiev. Election cycle in the US is of no concern to Russia who has written Washington off no matter who comes to power. As for Mead--I have a suggestion, instead of "teaching" Clausewitz and Strategy, he may take basic classes on WWII history, not the BS he teaches, and how real economy works. I do not expect him succeeding studying modern warfare--too complex and requires graduate STEM degree (and clearance), but he may try. Hey, at 60 I learned some basic chords on piano and even know how to play The House of the Rising Sun. But, in all seriousness, most of US "geopolitical" and "strategy" academy should be fired and given jobs as greeters at the Walmart's entrances.

Sanctions Against Russia MUST Stay In Place.

I am not being facetious, I mean it. Thankfully, Angela Merkel today confirmed that sanctions will be extended.  And this is all for the better. Again, I stress, I am not joking or being ironic, especially against the background of the related news. For example, the production of machines and equipment in Urals in the first Quarter of 2016 grew 41% relative to the same period in 2015. The link is in Russian. In other, very important related news, Russia decided not to sell three (out of six) remaining Project 11356 Frigates to India but wait for the completion of Russia's own power plant for these ships by NPO Saturn, instead of Ukrainian-made propulsion. It is a wise and strategic decision. New Saturn power plant could be used in future classes of frigates other than Project 22350 Gorshkov-class. These are good news for Russian Navy in general, and Black Sea Fleet in particular.

In general, sanctions play a very positive role in Russia's real economy. But this fact is missing on monetarists who do not see the forest behind the trees. Nobody says that sanctions made life of overwhelming majority of Russians easier, but they are just a small part of a larger economic burden of policies of incompetent hacks, Russian Prime Minister included, who never had any real applicable life skills other than getting degrees in some pseudo-science of liberal economics or law.  But that is Russia's strictly internal drama and a problem. It is difficult to teach some bankster, such as Gref or Kudrin, real skills in real economy which make it grow not  by currency speculation or voodoo dances on Moscow Stock Exchange but by growing real economic, scientific and human capital of the nation--these skills are not taught in the world of shysters. Stealing, BSing, coming up with lame terms for robbery--these are the skills required in the world of "financiers". Putin, in my humble opinion, should have understood by now that it is a model which sucks, not only this model's preposterous protagonists who never learned to create anything of value in their life. Will Putin take action? I don't know. His approval rating is through the roof and it is this rating which, for now, gives some breathing space and time to Medvedev and his cabal of West "educated" government ministers.  It is a question now--will Putin continue to associate himself with the government which works towards stopping really positive trends which took the root despite, not thanks, to this government's policies? I don't know the answer. On one hand Putin has support of a majority of Russia's people, on the other--he has HIS government which represents the interests of a narrow strata of liberals who would love nothing better than see Russia disintegrate and who do not represent desires and vision of Russian people. Well, Putin should really think fast now, because it is him who separates his government, and people it represents, and lamp posts on which most of them would be hanging by the neck if not for those genuine 80% of Putin's approval rating.