The only point of contention is the size of... American economy most of which is reported from the service sector, real estate and other financial indices. It is definitely not $23 trillion and it is dwarfed by the economy of China. The structure matters here, and while still significant, US real sector, real industries, shrunk in the last 25 years dramatically, if not catastrophically. The hint is, of course, Russia producing MORE steel and iron than the US, and producing about 70% of energy of the US. Energy consumption in MTOE (Million Tons Oil Equivalent) for 2022 puts ratio at this figure:
Which roughly translated into about 38% of US consumption. Russian economy continues to surge like crazy and by the end of 2025 should hover at 40-42% of the US one. Which gives us a very rough size of Russian economy being about 40% of the US one if one projects those figures directly at GDP number, which, in its turn, is an extremely rough approximation.
Keep in mind that it is not just about military industry of Russia, however mighty and with unrivaled surge capability. As Sabah continues:
Russia's economy grew by 3.6 percent in 2023, more than any other G7 country. The IMF forecasts growth of 0.9 percent in 2004 for Europe, while growth in Russia is forecast at 2.6 percent. This rate is double the previous estimates. Russia is also currently at an all-time low of 2.9 percent, hitting a record high of2.9 percent.
And here is what I was stressing when talking about whole of economy, not just military-industrial complex. Here are some, very few, indices:
Translation:The greatest growth among manufacturing industries was shown by: production of finished metal products, except machinery and equipment - 151.5%, production of computers, electronic and optical products - 147.2%,production of other vehicles and equipment — 138.6%, production of vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers — 137.9%, beverage production — 129.8%,production of medicines and materials — 122.8%.The extractive industries index amounted to 102.1%.
Bunch of other manufactured items from furniture, to food, to paper, to clothing to other finished products--all show two digit growth.
In related news, Kiev now is ready to talk about borders as they were prior to February 2022. Moscow is not interested--it already stressed that the starting point of any talks are full new regions of: Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson and then... Russia will begin to dictate what and how the rest will go.
It is not going to go well for Kiev regime. In the end, it is between Russia and the United States. Kiev now is in Bargaining mode per Kubler-Ross. So is the US.
P.S. Per teeth--five hours (it was agreed in advance) yesterday: six "posts" (pivots), one root canal, four temporary segments (including two bridges). Now a month or two with temporaries until metal-ceramic permanents will be installed. But that will be easy now--the main job was done yesterday. I need a drink, my dentist also said so, LOL))) Ah, YES, completely forgot--I finished the book, now only Foreword remains, technical work of finishing editing by Clarity Press, indexing and off we go. I really need a drink!
... an important emphasis which many Russian top officials and industries' captains started to use in the last weeks. And I am not talking about Dmitri Medvedev. Sergei Chemezov went on record a few days ago that all technological "advantage" of the West over Russia is a myth. Many people start to talk now openly about a complete implosion of West's political, technological and economic mythology. It is one thing when I do this for years, totally another when it becomes a choir of very high positioned voices in Russia. The thing which comes to mind is this photo, now a meme, of Elvira Nabiullina looking at Christine Lagarde with barely hidden irony, if not sarcasm.
These are two different weight categories both professionally and intellectually portrayed in this photo. Or rather a real professional and an amateur who Lagarde is. Nabiullina is a professional economist with degree from Moscow State University, Lagarde is a lawyer.
She is definitely a woman of very serious abilities. And she was instrumental in ensuring Russian economy withstood unprecedented economic war unleashed on it by the West, and here we are today--Russian manufacturing sector grows by 5.5%, Russia is awash in cash and all this while Russia conducts SMO but outproduces NATO in all critical military materiel by insane margin. But that is how Kremlin operates--nobody cares if you are liberal or communist, if you are a serious professional you will be able to thrive. Boy, I can only imagine how she is hated in the White House and Brussels. Ah yes, her, now legendary, brooches.
Yeah, yeah, I know, he needs money, but spewing BS will not help, because Europe is beginning to feel first results of "alliance" with the US. Hey, US needs to eat too, you know. And yes, Russians look at Europe now in the same way Nabiullina looks at Lagarde--with contempt.
Generally speaking, what passes in the West and, by default, many other places globally for "economic science" is almost a complete BS, a pseudo-science, a euphemism for fraud and snake oil peddling. Long ago economics in the West has become nothing more than just another political and ideological tool in the arsenal of means which serve only one end--the recycling of Western political "elites" at the top while selling an illusion of a democratic choice to plebes. But sometimes the reality breaks through seemingly impenetrable barriers of BS, demagoguery, gaslighting and beaten to death economic tropes (how about the US economy being "first in the world") and even fraudsters cannot continue to deny it.
This is yet another one who did so and the list of EU "customers" opening those accounts is growing. Now even complete morons from European Commission, who helped to ruin European economy, cannot deny reality.
Truth is, ANY, I underscore it--ANY info and conclusions on Russian economy from Western rating agencies, economic forecast and accounting firms, international banks and orgs are absolutely worthless, because the framework within which this whole well oiled machine of selling economic BS to Wall Street operates is totally removed from the economic reality on the ground which is much more complex than just debit-credit ledger or reports (always wrong and under reporting) on inflation.
Yet, this news is as important, if not more, than any events on the ground in Russian SMO in Ukraine, because it is this geopolitical and geoeconomic background against which the war progresses in 404. For dopamine-dependent armchair "strategists", gamers and military porn masturbators, who need their daily doze of destruction, death and combat observed from afar, this news, same as such as news as Kherson Oblast already confirming its intent to become Russia's region (in Russian), same goes for Zaporzhskaya Oblast and other regions of primarily Southern Ukraine and this time, in 2022, not least through a windfall of cash due to dramatic rise in prices of resources, even against the background of overall combined West's economic decline. In the end, one may live just fine without new (and overpriced) junk of iPhone or new, also overpriced, brand hand bag, one cannot live without heat, electricity and food, despite Western economists trying to convince other people that one can. But even they now surrendered to a grim reality of doing as Russia tells them to do and it really hurts the pitiful remains of their self-respect.
Plus, of course, the beginning of the process of surrender of Nazis, mercenaries and VSU blocked before that for month at the Azov Steel (recall how many "analysts" were crying foul when Putin ordered to simply seal off this plant?) does not add to already grim mood in the West (not to mention the remnants of 404) and even regurgitating military fakes from 404 does nothing to improve it. As you all know, I am not really interested in all this "tactical" minutiae of SMO (I leave that and deriving BS conclusions from it to all those Podolyaka, Kotenok, Cassad and other benefactors of monetization of their militarily illiterate crap) but insights, especially through VSU foreign mercenaries and Nazi POWs, provide a glimpse into the kitchen of Ukie resistance. Here is one (in Russian) among many thousands of other POWs.
He complains that Polish and American mercenaries treated VSU badly, ate and drunk much better than VSU regulars, never sharing really, and, in general, used VSU personnel as their maids. Ladi-fucking-da, and what did they expect? For NATO people VSU are subhumans given only enough equipment and training to kill Russians (civilians primarily). No wonder all those NATO "heroes" evaporate once they smell the start of the real battle, not the safari-type hunting on Rooskies. Indeed, those damn Rooskies have tanks, artillery and high precision weapons--not a TOE all those NATO people used to facing in war.
While I radically disagree with Rostislav Ischenko that Russia didn't expect 404 resistance--this is not how military planning on a strategic and operational level works and how decision trees are acted upon--but even he, and he surely knows 404 orders of magnitude better than me, had to admit (in Russian) that disintegration of VSU has begun, and even the latest about the removal of Ukies' big honcho of Territorial Defense (battalions) which continue to sustain appalling losses on the front, is another indication of the ongoing implosion. Again, Austin didn't call Shoigu to talk pleasantries, he demanded the immediate "cease fire". I also radically disagree with Ischenko on his interpretation of the American aims in 404, but Ischenko is not a military man and he doesn't know the US that well. So, here is your primer for Monday and we need to be patient.
That thing can carry pretty much any munitions, including hyper-sonic Avangards, which brings us to other related news which may slip unnoticed in the informational bacchanalia in Western media.
They are nice looking ships and now that we know the actual range of Zircons (1,500 kilometers), together with Gorshkov-class frigates (also Zircon carriers) it may explain why Borisov was stand-offish on carriers in his interview a couple of days ago.
So, Russia continues to build her weapons and, while Mikhail Mishustin admitted that Russian economy "sagged somewhat", that sagging was expected under well-known circumstances and the growth will return starting this year. But here is my beaten to death point: combined West grossly miscalculated in terms of the size of Russian economy. No, it is not just the matter of crucial Russian exports ranging from energy, to metals, to food, it is about the actual size of Russian economy. And by size I mean, of course, real, physical economy which produces real products. Just one look at Russia's aerospace industry, both commercial and military, should have given a hint to Western "economists" but they failed, naturally.
In related news: Netflix is "valued" more than Gazprom. I mean "shares". That explains why Russia doesn't care anymore about all those BS "rating agencies" and IMF and World Bank "projections"--the idiots live in a virtual world of virtual money. The new Russia's strategy for participation in WTO in metallurgical sphere should be ready by June 1st, and Vladimir Putin was very clear today that behavior of the West towards Russia will not change (in Russian). It will be very interesting to see this strategy and how defense of the domestic producers will be reflected in it. Expect new developments in the extraction sphere because Russia has ALL critical resources ranging from Uranium to Titanium to what have you in industrial volumes and the only reason that Russia was not developing those deposits was because it was somewhat cheaper to buy them from other countries. Circumstances changed dramatically, and Russia has enough cash to do it all.
In SMO news, Patrick Lancaster is finally getting the recognition he deserves, with more than 400,000 subscribers. I believe it is two days old report.
The dude has the balls of steel and is a real war reporter, old-fashion, down and dirty but that what real war is. Patrick has to stay safe, together with his gutsy cameraman. There are some reports of VSU simply abandoning villages and towns and the stream of POWs continues. Many of them do not even look like military men anymore: completely warn down and broken down, many say that the stream of surrendering VSU would have been even larger if not for many trying to surrender being shot in the back by Nazis. Well, we knew that from the get go, didn't we?
Vice Premier, former General and Ph.D in engineering, who today oversees Russian military-industrial complex, Yuri Borisov dropped an astonishing number which gives a little insight into the Russian machine-building complex and the general trend of Russian economy. At the all-Russian conference of the young scientists and specialists "The Future of Russian Machine Building", which was organized by famed (especially among Western intelligence services) Bauman's MGTU he stated this:
Translation: A number of employees needed at the enterprises of Russian military-industrial complex is around half-a-million. This is a whole army, around 50 new professions are in demand. We are working on changing the trend of the cadres. We are concerned about the quality of this people, who will be capable to provide for the breakthroughs Vladimir Putin spoke about in his March address.
Think about it: half-a-million just for the military-industrial complex. Boy, I wonder what all those lawyers, journalists, managers and other philosophy majors in Russia feel. I am being facetious, of course--I know exactly what they feel, some of them may even understand what is going on. After return of Crimea home, in 2014, on the wave of incredible patriotism and enthusiasm, in the anticipation of the Western sanctions, there was understanding among people who actually know Russia, which, in different forms, was worded like this: Russia doesn't need office plankton, she needs engineers, designers, CNC operators and programmers. I may add here: Russia needs tool and die makers, operators of complex computers-driven machinery, she needs composite materials and structures specialists and the list goes on, and on, and on. In all, Russia needs modern, cutting edge productive forces. And this is just Russian MIC. To illustrate: just today news of Egypt signing $1.3 billion contract with Transmashholding for hundreds of modern rail cars have made it to media (in Russian). It is 5 years worth of work for thousands upon thousands of highly qualified and well-paid labor.
You may have already guessed, that this purely civilian contract will require primarily electricians, mechanics, CNC operators, systems integrators--you name it. It will not require political "scientists", "economists" (especially with "degrees" from something like VShE), I know, my daughter got her BA in economics from UW and European (Milan) School of Economics. Let's put it this way--for what she does for living she needs only paper on her degree, the rest... well, I'll abstain. Transmashholding is a massive company and it is a civilian one. Russian MIC's contracts are on the order of magnitude larger. So, here is the deal--a generation, in fact-two, of Russians of 1990s and immediately after that, who I call the children of chaos and many of whom are either entering adult life or already are in the age category of 30-35, suddenly face a dilemma: what to do with their lives, especially if many of them went for so called "humanities" education or abstract economic degrees. I have news for them--virtually nobody is hiring them in Russia. As Russian joke goes: why one needs an economic degree? To shout in English, "this cash register is available" in McDonald's or Burger King.
These people are victims (many innocent, others--not so much) of one of the most pervasive and malignant myths excreted by Western economic "science"--an idea of post-industrial economy. A utopian future in which well-paid and well-dressed office plankton, populating all those comfortable offices in skyscrapers strategizes, conceptionalizes, rationalizes, what have you, with the help of computers and robots, in their relentless effort to "improve" the world and get filthy rich while doing so. This si precisely a category of public which worships Elon Musk and forms lines at the Apple stores on the eve of a new model of their godly gadget released for the consumption of mindless hipsters. Obviously very few of them have any clue on what modern manufacturing, yes, robots and computers included, is. Well, we all know what happened with US economy, don't we? I am not going to get deeper into this issue, but Russia almost ended the same way, that is until so called "liberal" (more like libertarian) ideas sustained huge metaphysical defeat and economic sanity started to slowly filter back, with Russian industries not only recovering but prospering in the process, even with non stop (it is the 60th since 2011) avalanche of Western economic sanctions.
And here is the main point. Putin reads from the Soviet book of industrialization. Those who have weak nerves or too impressionable, or studied Russian history from Solzhenitsyn or Anne Applebaum (or R. Conquest) should stop reading now and go to some other website or blog. Now I continue. Let me quote myself from the draft of who knows what (wink, wink):
New Deal pre-WWII America was still a nation which had
to deal with a 1937-1938 recession which dropped industrial production
catastrophically by 32%, GDP Contacted 10% and unemployment remained
prohibitively high at 20%. The United Sates were
simply in a very bad shape. It was WWII, in the end, which resolved the issue
of much needed real recovery from the Great Depression. The recovery was
spectacular: by 1942 the output grew by 49% fueled by the steady inflow of gold
from Europe, including from the Soviet Union, and by military buildup. Full employment was achieved.
You may verify my data here, after all it is by none other than Federal Reserve very own history specialists. Let us recall now, what was happening in the Soviet Union at that time. Easy--unprecedented economic growth, which made country ready for the war. All that growth was achieved in a real industrial and agricultural sectors, not in breeding philosophy professors, managers of expensive boutiques and shopping consultants. So, I am kinda wondering, before I go, why Maxim Oreshkin, himself a product of utterly liberal VShE suddenly goes very public on record with being dissatisfied with the (slower than planned) speed of Russia's dedollarization. Of course, parallels with Stalin's Industrialization are very tentative--modern Russia is a different country but real Re-Industrialization is what Russian people were calling for since Vladimir Putin emerged from his incognito status as Russia's statesman whom Russian people started to believe.
As I wrote not for
once, I stopped treating American geopolitical theorists as serious scholars a
long time ago. Most of what passes in contemporary US as a "national
security studies" is
a pseudo-academic sophistry revolving around the United States as one and
only "best thing ever" which ever happened or will ever happen to
humanity. The only work, as in set of the ideas, which came out of the US and
which still has some relation, however limited, to reality is Huntington's The
Clash of Civilizations, and even this influential work turned out to be
filled with misconceptions, pop-history and all other traits of what is
commonly known as Political Science. In general, contemporary American
geopolitical "thought" is still defined by Fukuyama's
scandalously stupid and delusional, to put it politely, failure of The
End of History.
Most taxonomies of
the American geopolitical thought, such as realists, neo-realists, neocons,
liberal interventionists, globalists, you name it, make absolutely no sense
since do not realistically describe American doctrine-mongering in any sensible
way. There is very little difference between, say John Mearsheimer, who
passes in US as "offensive realist" or whatever is hip and cool any
given day, and, say Robert Kagan, who is a certifiable war-monger and
pseudo-academic. Views of both originate from the same starting point and
differ only in minute details. This starting point is American exceptionalism
and strong belief that US is economically and militarily omnipotent. Enter
Nicholas Gvosdev, whose bio, apart from naming some of his places of
employment, including him being "professor" of national security
studies in Naval War College, is rather foggy. For years this guy presented
himself as a geopolitical "realist" (or whatever) but lately he
finally dropped this BS mask and exposed himself for what he is--a classic
American exceptionalist who has very little grasp of the subject of his
"study" (evidently he has his Ph.D in it)--Russia.
The issue here is
not a complete mental breakdown in Gvosdev's latest piece in, where else, The
National Interest, no, the issue is, as it is an overwhelming case with
US "academe", a loss of any touch with the reality. I
wrote a lot on this issue and not for once I stated that people in US who
write on Russia's economy should really abstain from regurgitation of therapeutic
self-medicating ignorant mantras on Russia's economy since they will spare
their own nerves and avoid parading themselves as amateur fools most of them
are. It is not enough that most of American "economists" continue to
live in a delusion, such as former Reagan's budget director David Stockman:
Being an ignorant
hack on Russia he certainly doesn't understand how actual economy (I will omit
here his total ignorance on any military-technological issue) works and
measured but that is expected from the former Wall Street shyster whose
understanding of any serious industry is limited by methodology of fraud. For a
man with degree
in....theology, among many other "useful" backgrounds he boasts,
it is expected not to have understanding of basic mathematics. Enter Gvosdev,
who teaches, among many other things, Economic Geography. So, unlike ignorant
Stockman, in his nervous-breakdown manifesto he comes up with a new
wet-dream "measure" of Russia's economic "weakness".
Get this:
Initially when I
read this I was startled. I thought Gvosdev followed Stockman's method of
comparing NYC "economy", most of it based on Wall Street speculations
with snake oil and air, to Russia's, but then I read "per capita".
A-ha, I thought, Gvosdev is certainly smarter than so many of his Russia's
"expert" colleagues who continue to spread various economic BS about
Russia. The reason for this thought was simple--indeed, current Russia's GDP
per capita is somewhere in the vicinity of Portugal's which, if Gvosdev didn't
know is not the richest but by far not the poorest nation in the European Union
with surprisingly robust economy for such a small country. The question thus is
this: how Russia's per capita GDP, which only fifteen years ago was in her
death throes and had a completely destroyed economy and livelihood of tens of
millions of Russians, is bad? If anything, Russia's per capita GDP was
growing steadily and this comparison with Portugal far from reinforcing
Gvosdev's thesis of Russia's economy being weak, actually debunks it.
Nor Gvosdev's
statement such as this:
The second
illusion is that Russia’s trend lines are negative. This is true—with
predictions about Russia’s relative economic size and military power by 2050
showing radical diminishment.
has anything to do
with reality, especially projected against the background of US being now at
the precipice of economic and military global irrelevance. But, Gvosdev's piece
is just another one in a non-stop hysterical reaction in the US on own and
accelerating departure from, largely self-proclaimed, omnipotence. Russia has
become an ultimate enemy and it seems that always weak US "academe"
awareness of Russia is either completely lost or is reduced to a set of
irrational reactions based only on emotions. These are the signs of a mental
breakdown and are the heralds of a collapse, no, not Russia's. Desperation
always drives increased illusions of own omnipotence and disregard of reality.
It is one of the manifestations of one of (which one is for you to decide) the
stages of Kubler-Ross
Grief Model.
Saker
thinks that these
are first two stages simultaneously--I agree. These are now denial and
anger, with bargaining, depression and acceptance coming at some point of time
and, hopefully, without anyone in US deciding to do the unthinkable thus taking
human civilization as a factor out of the history of our rather small planet.
Pseudo "academic" exercises such as Gvosdev's piece or Stockman's
pretentious ignorance are not helping in containing a massive geopolitical
turbulence which we all are facing now. I will omit elaborating on political
points here completely: I said many times, I will repeat it--American
"Russian Studies" field is a sewer.
