Showing posts with label Industry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Industry. Show all posts

Friday, October 3, 2025

To Those Who Still ...

 ... want Russia to "take gloves off". 


As I repeat ad nauseam--I seldom submit to emotions publicly, I deal with numbers. If you take a look at the dynamics of 404 drones attacking Russia's (primarily civilian targets) you will notice that as of lately the numbers have been going down. The demolition of the industrial infrastructure of 404 continues unabated, in fact operational tempo only grew. 

Here, meanwhile, real military correspondent Kulko (Channel 1 of Russia, he was yesterday at Vera's program), describes in Russian how 404 and its NATO curators dispose of cannon fodder in the buffer zone near Sumy.

It is literally a slaughter, with VSU (NATO) command repeatedly sending each day 20-30 VSU to their death in this sector and the rest, even when they get to the forest strips, being utterly concussed and incapable of "fighting", just the meat. This is what will happen to any NATO force if they think, like French do, that they are "strongest land force in Europe". 

Monday, July 21, 2025

Yes, Chocking ...

 ... breaking SLOC (Shipping Lanes Of Communications) IS the capability (still) of the US Navy. It is still the largest Navy in the world and its submarine force is world-class. PLAN's sub force is not in the same league. 

US still can achieve strategic surprise and damage some of China's coastal facilities and sink a number of ships, but it is not going to win the war, if to imagine this Taiwan scenario, which many neocons masturbate to due to own military illiteracy. And we have to keep in mind--modern bomber or fighter plane are several orders of magnitude more complex technologically and production-wise than any WW II most sophisticated and complex weapons system or platform. Ground operations near or in mainland China--a phantasy, China's immediate reserve is around 20 million soldiers. And yes, the degree of Russia's involvement remains a matter of speculation, but there WILL be Russia's involvement on China's side. 

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Yet Another Victory... Not.

News pour in and people begin to feel nervous. How else can one describe this:
As Karen Shakhnazarov proposed yesterday (in Russian)--the whole oil war couldn't have been started by Saudis without US blessing, if not planning. I agree. As much as US depends on Saudis for a number of things, Saudis are what amounts to an American vassal. I don't think they planned it well, to start with--not surprising, once one notices a very weak grasp by planners in D.C. of causality and their inability to calculate consequences, which became a feature of US strategies in the last 20 or so years.  Russia, meanwhile, is what supports China in China's rear through the growing network of oil and gas pipelines and this strategy, if you will, is what matters above all for China which is beginning to be pulled into the war with the United States. So much so, that ideas like this are taking over discussion in the public (media) space.
For me personally it would have been an extremely interesting undertaking to discuss those ROE (rules of engagement) and how they are "written", especially against the background of the United States going out of its way to sabotage, as an example, Nord Stream-2, by means of putting Germany in her place as the US the doormat, but as the the author discusses and questions "kinetic" options, he arrives to this "conclusion": 
So where and how would kinetic operations begin? It seems clear that Beijing is reluctant to initiate military action, but is ready to engage once it has begun. Both the PRC and the US see advantages and disadvantages in delaying decisive tactical or theater action. The path to escalation to nuclear engagement is also far less clear — and deterrence far less sure — than during the NATO Warsaw Pact “mutually assured destruction” era. There seems a greater willingness by the PLA to engage in nuclear capabilities (ie: against military targets). Military action in the near-term could well consolidate the PRC position in its “near abroad”. It could even achieve de facto or de jure control of Taiwan, a critical legitimizing goal for the CPC, if the US did not rush in tripwire assets and support to show a preemptive tripwire to deter PRC escalation. But what after that?
He even goes as far as to refer readers to a peculiar document titled:
It is a "fun" paper (yet another one among many produced within "intellectual" kitchen of the Beltway thinktankdom stuffed with former military top brass and government bureaucrats), which through repeating  same ol' "we are about to die", a euphemism for "we need more money", provides for a full spectrum of all those good ol' cliches about "atrophy" of skills and, using Pentagonese, calls on:
To meet those intensifying military challenges, DOD will require rapid, substantial improvements to its capabilities built on a foundation of compelling, relevant operational concepts.
It is a dazzling, in its emptiness, linguistic miasma, which still doesn't answer the main question of what are "relevant operational concepts". OK, I get it, Gary Roughhead--one of the authors--is a an Admiral and he was in the position of CNO (Chief of Naval Operations) in 2000s for 4 years, so he must have a profound understanding of the subject matter and he should be able to answer the question on how he is intent to do this:
Protecting U.S. interests from China and Russia will require additional investment in the submarine fleet; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets; air defense; long-range strike plat-forms; and long-range ground-based fires. Deterring and, if necessary, defeating North Korea will demand additional air defense assets, as well as a sustained ground presence with the ability to quickly flow additional armored brigade combat teams (ABCTs), fires and combat engineer assets, and other capabilities into theater.  
In the end, what is "operational concept"? Operations (or operation) is defined by Russians (and they know a thing or two about subject matter) as such (in Russian):
A set of coordinated and interconnected in goals, objectives, place and time of combat engagements, battles, strikes and maneuvers of troops (forces), conducted simultaneously or sequentially according to a unified conception and plan for carrying out tasks at a theater (theaters) of military operations, strategic (operational) direction or in a certain vast district (zone) in a specified period of time;  form of military (combat) engagements: Operations are  distinguished by scale, type, and class of military engagements, time and sequence of carrying out. On the scale: Operations can be: strategic, that is operations by whole armed forces and a grouping of forces on a theater of operations; operational-strategic: army groups, fleets (flotillas) etc. 
In other words, the whole thing rests with one's ability, putting it in layman's lingo, to accumulate enough forces and materiel and engage them in such a way against the enemy that the enemy is crushed and all military and political objectives on the theater (of operations) are met. I, so far, know only one operational concept the United States provided in terms of modern warfare--it is throwing more money at the Military-Industrial Complex without any regard to economic and military-technological reality, which, inevitably, resulted in a dramatic, generational, lag in modern weapons and in de facto losing economic competition to China. Sure, the United States still can produce some magnificent things, such as microchips and some (cough-cough) commercial aircraft, but China's production of the main industrial "predictors" ranging from steel, iron, concrete to many machines dwarfs that of the United States. And I mean dwarfs. Just take a look at this picture:
I guess no comments are necessary here. And we all understand that such production of steel translates into such highly finished goods as ships, combat and commercial, structures, power plant, machines and... and weapons. As you may have guessed it already, US being outproduced in this field by China (and Russia) by almost twelve fold, has very little chance to win this kind of the competition. Of course, other crucial strategic metrics do not look that good either:
Of course, after Covid-19 demonstrated to the world US dependency on China even in such a crucial field as pharmaceuticals: 
China, the newsletter reported Tuesday, “accounted for 95% of U.S. imports of ibuprofen, 91% of U.S. imports of hydrocortisone, 70% of U.S. imports of acetaminophen, 40% to 45% of U.S. imports of penicillin and 40% of U.S. imports of heparin, according to Commerce Department data. In all, 80% of the US supply of antibiotics are made” in China.
This whole "operational concept" thingy begins to stink to heavens once one begins to look at and into tangibles, trying to assess how the United States is going to go to "war", especially a kinetic one since, after all is said and done, what is left are weapons and people which are in the foundation "operational concept" and weapons need to be produced, as in manufactured. Here the United States runs into problems immediately. Make no mistake, I will always bet on US Navy's submarine force against China, especially in the operations on Shipping Lanes of Communications--I am consistently on record regarding this fact--US submarine force, for all degradation of the US military, remains its crown jewel and it is, putting it bluntly, better equipped and trained than PLAN's submarine forces. It is simple as that, but I can now predict what any "future" relevant "operational concept" for the United States will look like when considering those kinetic options against China--it will be same ol' AirSea Battle, aka Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons (JAM-GC), and it is a euphemism for the same ol' stand-off weapons being hurled at whatever the targets will be identified in mainland China and in her littoral from every platform the United States will be able to assemble away from zones of reliable detection and target acquisition by Chinese anti-ship missiles and combat aviation and that doesn't look good for the United States, to put it mildly, especially considering very serious difficulties of US air defense dealing with a number of the missile threats, especially, if to believe Chinese, their maneuvering ballistic missiles capable to hit US aircraft carriers. What is absolutely positive, is the fact of the Chinese missiles being able to hit Guam. 

The question, thus, is not about if the United States will be able to "update" itself for a real war with China--I doubt this will happen, but that's just me, I could be wrong--but the scale of losses, including extremely sensitive politically, the United States will be willing to take. It is one thing to start getting coffins arriving daily in large numbers (anyone really thinks the US is capable to fight China in China proper in a large protracted combined arms war?), totally another--starting losing ships, capital ones, as a result of such a kinetic option. Especially when the US will run out of stand-off weapons. Mind you, China is the size of US lower 48 and, unlike some "mighty" Arab militaries, actually has a fairly good Air Defense system which will be able to do a decent job in protecting those energy streams from Russia, while unleashing North Korea at South with a single purpose of making US forces there miserable. And then there is Russia... Russia, Russia, Russia. You can bet you ass on Russia not allowing China to collapse and Russia does have tools to do so. After all, Russians are royally pissed off at the United States and may (and most likely will) decide at some point that Noblesse Oblige doesn't apply anymore and, apart from making sure China has all necessary energy to sustain the fight against the US, she may exhibit a "strategic flexibility" and provide China not only with a world class intelligence and reliable targeting, but actually, recall Korea and Vietnam. In the end, China is an enormous and lucrative market not only for Russian energy but advanced technology too. Markets must be protected and Russian-Chinese trade is order of magnitude larger than Russian-American one. 

But speaking broadly,  the American political class' insanity, which resulted from losing US status as premier global industrial powerhouse and self-proclaimed "finest fighting force in history" is a first sign of the dawning if not of the realization then of the sense of a final departure which there are no peaceful and sensible solutions left to stop it, only desperate "kinetic" options which will result in US military defeat and collapse of the dollar-based international financial system. Or rather dramatic acceleration thereof. In this case no amount of strategizing and conceptualizing will help, because in the end it is the ability to produce tangibles, from steel and food with medicine, not credit ratings (fraudulent as they are) or virtual worthless money, which win those kinetic options and that ship for the United States sailed long ago. Remarkably, the sailing of this ship was hailed as yet another American "victory", which it was not.      

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

What Matters. Again.

James Kunstler yesterday summarized, artfully as ever , the essence of the American economy nowadays: 
Real capital is grounded in the production of real things of real value, of course, and when it’s detached from all that, it’s no longer real capital. Money represents capital, and when the capital isn’t real, the money represents…nothing! And ceases to be real money. Just now, America is producing almost nothing except money, money in quantities that stupefy the imagination — trillions here, there, and everywhere. The trouble is that money is vanishing as fast as it’s being created. That’s because it’s based on promises to be paid back into existence that will never be kept, on top of prior promises to pay back money that were broken or are in the process of breaking. The net result is that money is actually disappearing faster than it can be created, even in vast quantities.
Many of us (yes, me included) wrote about it for years and years, yet, through the new crop of "market analysts", the idea that money is the only thing that matter was being carved into the minds of majority, while covering up for the real state of what I call them--tangibles. Let me demonstrate. This is US industrial (that means tangibles) output within last 12 months:
Now take a look at the 10-year span:
These graphs based on US official data should be kept constantly visible for people who continue to press the idea that Covid-19 is the reason for this all. Obviously, it is not. As I repeat ad nauseam since the start of this pandemic--virus is merely a trigger, one of. The shit was going down the drain for a long time and, as the recent increase in anti-Chinese rhetoric based on a totally false (what's new, really?) accusations on Covid-19 origins demonstrates, things are not that good for the United States. 

Obviously, US "elite" knows how to manipulate the currency and conduct currency wars--it is expected from them. Most of them never saw modern industrial plant and never ran any kind of productive business which would have been based on those tangibles--main capital, as in buildings, machinery, cadres (yes, people), manufacturing plans and training, trucks, ships, what have you. From the get go those people were "educated" in banks' operations, debit, credit, fees, "valuations", stocks, margin calls and other mambo-jumbo in the foundation of fake American GDP. As new update of old Soviet/Russian anecdote about cowboys goes today:

Two cowboys, Bill and John, ride their horses in prairie. While riding there, Bill sees a pile of horse shit and because he has 100 dollars it occurs to him--why wouldn't I dare John to eat this pile of horse shit for a hundred dollars. So, he dares John to do just that. John thinks: hm, of course, eating horse shit is really humiliating and disgusting but 100 bucks, damn, too serious of a money to pass on such an opportunity. So, he agrees and eats this pile of shit and Bill gives him his 100 bucks. They continue to ride side-by-side after that. While riding both think. 
Bill: well, it is all cool that John ate a pile of horse shit but, man, 100 bucks is too great sum of a money to pay even for such an atrocious challenge. I wish I never dared Bill and kept my 100.

John: well, it is really cool to have 100 bucks, but, man, I ate a pile of horse shit for that and now Bill will taunt and humiliate me for this. I wish I never agreed to accept his challenge.
While thinking like that they pass another pile of horse shit and John dares Bill to eat this pile of shit for 100 bucks. Bill agrees and does just that, John gives him 100 bucks. After that both cowboys continue to ride side-by-side in full silence. After few minutes of riding in silence John breaks it: "Hey, Bill, you know what? Don't you think that we both just ate a load of horse shit for free?" 
Bill replies: "But we just created $200 worth of GDP and created two new jobs." 

So, while the United States is getting ready to squeeze China for whatever it can--I think T-bills "targeted" default and putting "pressure" on Chinese owning businesses in the US is a natural choice (I could be mistaken, of course), evidently some rags in the US are beginning to experience a hangover from giving up tangibles: now they are lamenting the "mistake" of outsourcing. No shit, morons. And the problem here is not just classic issue of export of capital well described more than 100 years ago by many classic Marxists. Not just that, in Marxism basis (foundation) of the productive forces (and productive capital) defines the superstructure of morality and culture. This applies fully for a number of the Americans' generations we can identify by the letter or title: X, Z, Millenials, what have you most of which were brought up by the imagery of the office universe in which real life was and is happening non-stop. In fact, once you take a broader look on who is dramatically over-represented in modern art, two categories stand out--financiers and artsy types. One after another, stock brokers, bankers, art galleries owners, programmers, fashion designers and "free thinkers" dominate every single facet of cultural life in the West, with the actual labor and the images of the complex machinery and industrial technologies being absent from socio-cultural "space" in the United States. 

This teeny-weeny detail about modern "culture" aversion to any productive labor, since George Lopez spoiled brat niece Veronica's hysterical reaction to an offer to work at airplane parts plant, speaks volumes. Let's face it, we have an enormous number of people around who would faint at the very sight of your average run-of-the-mill CNC machine or paint booth in some large machine and production shop, as well as from the necessity to learn about safety on the production floor. It is so not cool, it is so not iPhone and orange mocha frappucino, it is so not progressive and sophisticated that life, as in real life, by definition cannot be happening there. But, as the story goes--it is precisely there where REAL life actually happens and where REAL value, as in crucial tangibles, on which civilization exists, are produced. Well, the United States in the last 20+ years was reducing these productive forces to a small fraction of what they used to be and, in doing so, also cleared the space for planting the most destructive and dangerous cultural practices, which now are in the symbiotic relation and mutual influence of those proverbial Marxist basis (foundation) and superstructure. They go hand in hand today with opioid catastrophe, rampant drugs use, overall degeneration of cognitive faculties of whole generations and, as the result, increasing number of almost insurmountable  hurdles towards the ONLY thing which may save this country--economic self-sufficiency. 

Economic self-sufficiency which is also a foundation of REAL national security starts from industry. No industry--no American nation. Simple as that. Modern generation of American "elites" has no idea, or, possibly, doesn't even care about what happens when the attempts to re-industrialize fail precisely because no one knows how to do it for real, not by doing what they got used to do--"printing" money which only accelerates a decline, towards eventual disintegration. So, here it is--no real recovery without real industries, which translate into real employment, this means reorienting production for the internal market and.... here we pause, because this seemingly simple scenario requires a long and substantive debate because this is where the issue of trade comes in and 99.99% of the American "elite" are a free trade neo-liberal fundamentalists who have neither knowledge nor skills to avert what is already not just on the horizon but knocking on the door. If you think otherwise, just take a look at the graphs above, especially a 10 year one. Things just got worse, not better since 2010. I am sure vast number of events coordinators, DJs and shopping assistants will have to rethink seriously their career choices if they even want any shot at any vacancy in a dramatically shrinking America's basis, before collapsing superstructure buries them.   

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

About Some Interesting News.

Vice Premier, former General and Ph.D in engineering, who today oversees Russian military-industrial complex, Yuri Borisov dropped an astonishing number which gives a little insight into the Russian machine-building complex and the general trend of Russian economy. At the all-Russian conference of the young scientists and specialists "The Future of Russian Machine Building", which was organized by famed (especially among Western intelligence services) Bauman's MGTU he stated this:  
Translation: A number of employees needed at the enterprises of Russian military-industrial complex is around half-a-million. This is a whole army, around 50 new professions are in demand. We are working on changing the trend of the cadres. We are concerned about the quality of this people, who will be capable to provide for the breakthroughs Vladimir Putin spoke about in his March address.  

Think about it: half-a-million just for the military-industrial complex. Boy, I wonder what all those lawyers, journalists, managers and other philosophy majors in Russia feel. I am being facetious, of course--I know exactly what they feel, some of them may even understand what is going on. After return of Crimea home, in 2014, on the wave of incredible patriotism and enthusiasm, in the anticipation of the Western sanctions, there was understanding among people who actually know Russia, which, in different forms, was worded like this: Russia doesn't need office plankton, she needs engineers, designers, CNC operators and programmers. I may add here: Russia needs tool and die makers, operators of complex computers-driven machinery, she needs composite materials and structures specialists and the list goes on, and on, and on. In all, Russia needs modern, cutting edge productive forces. And this is just Russian MIC. To illustrate: just today news of Egypt signing $1.3 billion contract with Transmashholding for hundreds of modern rail cars have made it to media (in Russian). It is 5 years worth of work for thousands upon thousands of highly qualified and well-paid labor.

You may have already guessed, that this purely civilian contract will require primarily electricians, mechanics, CNC operators, systems integrators--you name it. It will not require political "scientists", "economists" (especially with "degrees" from something like VShE), I know, my daughter got her BA in economics from UW and European (Milan) School of Economics. Let's put it this way--for what she does for living she needs only paper on her degree, the rest... well, I'll abstain. Transmashholding is a massive company and it is a civilian one. Russian MIC's contracts are on the order of magnitude larger. So, here is the deal--a generation, in fact-two, of Russians of 1990s and immediately after that, who I call the children of chaos and many of whom are either entering adult life or already are in the age category of 30-35, suddenly face a dilemma: what to do with their lives, especially if many of them went for so called "humanities" education or abstract economic degrees. I have news for them--virtually nobody is hiring them in Russia. As Russian joke goes: why one needs an economic degree? To shout in English, "this cash register is available" in McDonald's or Burger King.    

These people are victims (many innocent, others--not so much) of one of the most pervasive and malignant myths excreted by Western economic "science"--an idea of post-industrial economy. A utopian future in which well-paid and well-dressed office plankton, populating all those comfortable offices in skyscrapers strategizes, conceptionalizes, rationalizes, what have you, with the help of computers and robots, in their relentless effort to "improve" the world and get filthy rich while doing so. This si precisely a category of public which worships Elon Musk and forms lines at the Apple stores on the eve of a new model of their godly gadget released for the consumption of mindless hipsters. Obviously very few of them have any clue on what modern manufacturing, yes, robots and computers included, is. Well, we all know what happened with US economy, don't we? I am not going to get deeper into this issue, but Russia almost ended the same way, that is until so called "liberal" (more like libertarian) ideas sustained huge metaphysical defeat and economic sanity started to slowly filter back, with Russian industries not only recovering but prospering in the process, even with non stop (it is the 60th since 2011) avalanche of Western economic sanctions. 

And here is the main point. Putin reads from the Soviet book of industrialization. Those who have weak nerves or too impressionable, or studied Russian history from Solzhenitsyn or Anne Applebaum (or R. Conquest) should stop reading now and go to some other website or blog. Now I continue. Let me quote myself from the draft of who knows what (wink, wink):  
New Deal pre-WWII America was still a nation which had to deal with a 1937-1938 recession which dropped industrial production catastrophically by 32%, GDP Contacted 10% and unemployment remained prohibitively high at 20%. The United Sates were simply in a very bad shape. It was WWII, in the end, which resolved the issue of much needed real recovery from the Great Depression. The recovery was spectacular: by 1942 the output grew by 49% fueled by the steady inflow of gold from Europe, including from the Soviet Union, and by military buildup. Full employment was achieved.
You may verify my data here, after all it is by none other than Federal Reserve very own history specialists. Let us recall now, what was happening in the Soviet Union at that time. Easy--unprecedented economic growth, which made country ready for the war. All that growth was achieved in a real industrial and agricultural sectors, not in breeding philosophy professors, managers of expensive boutiques and shopping consultants. So, I am kinda wondering, before I go, why Maxim Oreshkin, himself a product of utterly liberal VShE suddenly goes very public on record with being dissatisfied with the (slower than planned) speed of Russia's dedollarization. Of course, parallels with Stalin's Industrialization are very tentative--modern Russia is a different country but real Re-Industrialization is what Russian people were calling for since Vladimir Putin emerged from his incognito status as Russia's statesman whom Russian people started to believe. 

To Be Continued...