This Is Not ...

 ... how I imagined the fight between PLAN and Philippines' Navy, but this is tense but still funny. 

But reality, of course, is much more serious and the US will continue its, however useless, buildup in the area and use its vassals, I mean "allies", to provoke China. I am not going into the legal aspect of all those waters and all those Spratlys and all that, but here is a delusion on part of "intellectual" (I elaborate on this in my video today) Kazianis who lives in 1965 or maybe, indeed, in his 1945 outlet and never heard of antishipping missiles. 

China Is Building Toward Nine Aircraft Carriers. America Has Eleven — and Can’t Replace Them Fast Enough.  

Why China builds them is clear--it is symbolic because China has a monstrous shipbuilding industry which dwarfs that of the US and China leverages it, but also because she still copies very many views on war, in this case naval one, from the US. What many people still cannot grasp--China doesn't have strike weapon systems which guarantee sufficient number of leakers to stop US CBGs. Anybody who continues with a delusion of Chinese "hypersonic" weapons--I have news, China doesn't have them. Calling ballistic missiles which enter atmosphere at hypersonic speed a "hypersonic weapon" is the same as calling Packard autos the same generation as 2026 Honda Accord. 

This is the reality which very many people who do admire (I do it too) Chinese achievements (not least through first Soviet aid and then the US transplanting here manufacturing to China) cannot accept--in terms of naval warfare China is not in the same league because for all of its huge issues, including WW II based fighting doctrine of the US surface navy, China is nowhere near in terms of submarine component of the US or Russian Navies. Plus, the issue which many want to ignore but which Iran learned the hard way--Chinese AD turned out to be not what was promised. Russia warned Iran, but China outbid Russia. Well ... That's the reality and it is much more nuanced than merely proclaiming existing capability which is a much more inferior copy of original. Just to demonstrate:

I forestall many China fanboys who will rush to defend China while having no clue about realities of technological dimension of modern warfare. I repeat again, Russia "helped" (euphemism for built) Chinese missile attack early warning system. Get a hint and a clue. 

Why This Video ...

... is a sentence to US military. In general, and it is one of many--the pattern is the same. Always the same. 

Patriot PAC3 deploys. It is detected, taken on by RUK (Recon-Strike Complex), Iskander arrives. Not a single movement, not a single launch of AD missile. Not because it is inactive, because it is the system (the best NATO has) for the war of 1980s and 1990s against backward countries with military technology of 1960s. 

Ramifications are enormous for the US, including the US Navy which always prided itself on Aegis and SM-6 missile as the best AD in the world--it is not even close. Salvo Model is cruel, you can cheat it on paper, in real life--you are dead. I speak about it in my today's video, especially against the background of Defiant-class "battleship" which became now a butt of the jokes even among US professionals. The critical admission by the US Navy that this white elephant will be using "existing systems" is everything you need to know about historic shift in naval war paradigm and, as the result, in the global balance of power. 

Yes, Chocking ...

 ... breaking SLOC (Shipping Lanes Of Communications) IS the capability (still) of the US Navy. It is still the largest Navy in the world and its submarine force is world-class. PLAN's sub force is not in the same league. 

US still can achieve strategic surprise and damage some of China's coastal facilities and sink a number of ships, but it is not going to win the war, if to imagine this Taiwan scenario, which many neocons masturbate to due to own military illiteracy. And we have to keep in mind--modern bomber or fighter plane are several orders of magnitude more complex technologically and production-wise than any WW II most sophisticated and complex weapons system or platform. Ground operations near or in mainland China--a phantasy, China's immediate reserve is around 20 million soldiers. And yes, the degree of Russia's involvement remains a matter of speculation, but there WILL be Russia's involvement on China's side. 

In Related News ...

 ... water is wet, fire is hot and concrete is hard. 

Russia Has Won the Ukraine War and ‘Defeated’ NATO. Key Points - The war in Ukraine is effectively over, with Russia on a clear path to achieving its objectives through a grinding war of attrition that has exhausted Ukraine and outlasted Western and NATO resolve. Russia's military has adapted, its economy has been reoriented away from the West despite sanctions, and its political regime under Putin remains stable. In contrast, Ukraine faces a critical and irreversible manpower crisis that no amount of Western hardware can solve. 

To those who still didn't get the message--it was over in Summer 2023 when the much touted "counter-offensive" exposed utter military incompetence of NATO and was defeated without effectively NATO forces even reaching the first line of defense. After that, it was just the method of demilitarizing NATO by Russia. That's what happens when your military history and "operational art" is nothing but a collection of fairy tales written by losers defeated by the Red Army in WW II and a sense of military exceptionalism endemic in America's founding. General Patton and all kinds of other rah-rahs. Result? 

Russians gave a bit of a taste in the last 24 hours. Here is one of the Kiev's powerplants leaving the chat.

You can also witness the "effectiveness" of NATO's (there is no former Soviet-Russian AD left--it is all NATO) AD--it is impotent in any configuration and quantity to stop modern stand-off weapons. While to demonstrate to you why any NATO efforts to pretend that it can fight Russia in Eastern Europe is nothing but PR BS--here is a screenshot of one of the LCDs in Ka-52 helicopter hitting the armor from the range of 25.3 kilometers by LMUR. 

Meanwhile Michael Vlahos laments: 

The US Navy's five roads to ruin. The establishment wants you to believe it's all about the number of ships but the rot runs much deeper, which can lead to delusional strategy.   

What do you mean can, it already did. Anybody who thinks that the carrier-centric navy in the 21st century is anything but the collection of fat juicy indefensible targets must have his head checked. TOE of 1990s has no place in 2025. 

An Interesting Quip...

... from Douglas Macgregor.  Same ol' issue of SLOCs and sustainability of any US force in Europe. 

RFK JR is spot on regarding Washington’s poorly disguised attempt to drag us into war with Russia, but the situation in Ukraine is very different and we have no ground troops to send. The European peoples don’t want a war and neither do Americans. In 1965 the mood in America was very supportive of intervention in SE Asia to fight communism. I know. I was there. It would take four years for American support to collapse.  In addition, for reasons of geography, Ukraine cannot become another Vietnam. In 1965 no one could or would interdict us on the way to Vietnam. Today, Russian subs would immediately shut down the Atlantic and all of our staging areas in Eastern Europe would utterly demolished in a hail of missiles. Worse, US-NATO air and missile defenses are only capable of defending 5% of NATO’s European territory. In the space of 5-7 daisy our missile supply would be exhausted. I could go on, but you get the point. It’s a dead end. Any attempt to mimic the approach to Vietnam will end abruptly and badly for the US and Europe. That was the point that Orban tried to make.

Well. Technological and operational reality is a bitch, you cannot escape it, no matter how you try and any shipping through Atlantic Ocean will be ground to a halt in a matter of days. Naval warfare changed dramatically and you can not defend SLOCs from technology which is several generations ahead of whatever Houthis have, plus add here massive quantities of it. We all know what Houthis did and how they paralyzed marine traffic in the Red Sea. Combined NATO navies couldn't a thing about it other than barely defending themselves. Now imagine when a couple of Yasens (pr. 885) and several Akulas (pr. 971M) go out to hunt--good luck trying finding them without risking own aircraft carries. Just classic escort by something like Arleigh Burke class DDGs is a death trap, because no US asset has the ability to deal with salvos of newest anti-shipping missiles. So, no good options. Those escorts will be sunk and "convoy" or dispersed group of strategic lift vessels will be found out and sunk too. It is 2024, Ladies and Gentleman, not 1943.

But in the end, let's imagine that the US somehow manages to put some force into Europe--it will not be sustainable in the serious war no matter what. Have you seen the US "force protection" capabilities? Patriot PAC3, NASAMS et al--seriously? That's you answer. I'll remind you--estimates for US casualties in such a war will average for the US Army on 3,600 KIAs and WIAs daily. US Army is incapable to fight such a war even if to imagine that SLOCs somehow will be relatively safe. Neither is American society.

Ha, CNN Reports...

 ... actual news from Havana. Not the first half of the report, of course. But visit to Admiral Gorshkov is open for public. Upper deck only, of course.  

Obviously, no one is allowed on board of Kazan. As expected, the discussion board below the video is dominated by massive numbers of TSIPSO and simply genuine article Khohol and other Western fanboys, but the truth is--as I reiterated a number of times--it is what is in waters in the Eastern and Western seaboards which really matters. Couple of the US vessels with SURTASS are  hanging around the area waiting for any opportunity to get Kazan's acoustic signature, but Russians are keenly aware of the rules of the game and Kazan, naturally, will sail on the surface until she breaks off nosy SURTASS guys and a couple of Virginias or Seawolves doing lapses in the vicinity. Good Ol' submariners game. 

What many fanboys didn't notice of course is Academic Pashin...

Russian Navy's latest class of replenishment ships (oilers) of pr. 23130 with 2 completed, 2 building and 2 ships of this class planned. They are state-of-the-art and are designed and built precisely for the type of global affairs such as the visit of a detachment of Russian ships to Cuba. Each of the ships of this class is capable to carry more than 5,000 tons of fuel, plus other supplies. My memory, however, brings me back to this mighty supplier...

At 25,000 tons, she was a mighty fine ship. Well, times change and surface fleets are rethinking their footprint in the times of hypersonic weapons and 24/7 ISR.

Let Me Remind You...

 ... that Soviet Navy was constantly present in Cuba through 1960s to 1980s. Visits have been regular and even one of the classes of my naval academy went on navigation cruise Kronstadt-Cienfuegos-Cartagena in 1970s. Here is one of the missile cruisers of pr. 58 leaving Cuba in 1969. 

It is absolutely normal for the US to react by tracking these ships.
  

Obviously, the class of these ships--both carriers of hypersonic missiles and extremely long range advanced stand-off weapons under present circumstances with the US unleashing a proxy war against Russia is concerning for the US. It takes 3M22 Zircon about 9 minutes to fly to, God forbid, Norfolk if launched anywhere from Bahamas area. 

But I do not take these concerns too seriously because as a former naval professional I totally understand, as do people in the US Navy, it is what is NOT demonstrated by Russia that should be concerning for them and these are Russian Navy's nuclear subs which patrol off both US shores and do it in a fully clandestine manner. Their tasks, whatever they are, are to remain invisible first and foremost. Is Russia making a public point in Cuba? Absolutely, including highly publicized exercises on simulation of missile launches to the ranges beyond 600 kilometers with "autonomous targeting", meaning that targeting is obtained purely through own sensors and helicopter, not from the external targeting such as would be targeting from Liana satellite constellation. Gorshkov's Monolit radar in passive mode can track surface targets up to 450 kilometers. So, we may only speculate how such a long range targeting could be obtained autonomously. 

It is clear that Gorshkov carries latest version of venerable Ka-27, Ka-27M. 

The "M" version of Ka-27 carries new radar and extends surface search capabilities dramatically. So, most likely, it was Ka-27M (operational range 980 kilometers) which could have provided such targeting.

WOW!

Unbelievable. 

 

Listen To A Legend.

Sadly, he is not with us anymore. But here is late Captain Wayne Hughes whose contribution to fleets' tactics and operations is enormous and, not surprisingly, came out of an immense and glorious combat experience of the US Navy in WW II. Here he speaks about his Salvo Equations and how they came into being. 

Remarkably, speaking of a continuous fire and how Lanchester model fails for the navies he forgets to mention specifically (implicitly it is stated by him) the most important property of modern naval (and even land-attack) combat in the age of missiles--one has a chance to shoot enemy missile(s) down using his ship's (or object) air defense.  Because I am intent to continue my warfare writing in this blog using Salvo Model, my advice--just listen to a man who created it, and who brilliantly explains its nature in simple words in this one of the last interviews. You may need those truths he is talking about.

A2/AD Business.

An interesting development today. Evidently, Russia and China signed the contract for a delivery of Russian-made anti-shipping missiles to China. It is a rather significant development. At this time it is not known which missiles will be delivered to China and, most importantly, in what "configuration": export, less capable version, or for internal, much more capable, Russian use. If to consider the fact that Russia started deliveries of  SU-35 in their original (that is what rumors say so far), "Russian" configuration,

  

Here is the first "Chinese" SU-35 with Russian transfer team.

then it is totally reasonable to assume that it is probable that Russian anti-ship missiles (complexes) will be of a "domestic" configuration. In this case we may conclude that if those missiles are of a Kalibr family or P-800 Onyx, their ranges will be up to 600 kilometers (around 320 nautical miles), not twice shorter as it is the case with export versions. This, if my assumptions are correct (I could be wrong, of course--time will tell), will have a major effect on how China may approach her interests in the South China Sea and defense of her littoral--a proverbial A2/AD. In this case China will be able to achieve almost a full "coverage", an overlapped missile obstacle course, along most of her First Island Chain.  

  

This will make the life of the US Navy surface ships rather exciting if someone in D.C. (and even with new US Administration it is not precluded) makes a decision to "project power" against Chinese interests. I omit here the legal and moral aspect of Chinese claims--I am not well versed in the legal details of this whole situation--but it is very clear that missile technologies play and will continue to play an increasingly large role in formation of naval strategies. In the end, a naval truism "a ship's a fool to fight a fort" is as relevant as ever, especially if one considers "a fort" having a capable Air Force.