Some Insights Now Begin To Arrive.

As was anticipated. CBS reports on actuality of war from the POV of the US military personnel and lo and behold--they say what I have been saying for many years, how the real war feels. 

Survivors of the deadliest Iranian attack on U.S. forces since the war began have disputed the Pentagon's description of events and said their unit in Kuwait was left dangerously exposed when six service members were killed and more than 20 wounded. Speaking publicly for the first time, members of the targeted unit offered CBS News a detailed account of the attack and its harrowing aftermath from the perspective of those on the ground. 

Of course, they have to dispute what Hegseth says. This is not your small arms firefights (however nasty they could be) where you call in CAS, this is long-range fires, my friends, and they are longer than many of those in the US arsenal. 

In the hours before the attack, incoming missile alarms had signaled to a crew of about 60 troops to take cover in a cement bunker while a ballistic missile flew overhead. But around 9:15 a.m., an all-clear alert sounded. Officers removed their helmets and returned to their desks in the wood and tin workspace, about the width of three trailers. From there they resumed managing the movement of equipment, munitions and personnel across the Middle East. About 30 minutes later, "everything shook," one soldier told CBS News. "And it's something like what you see in the movies. Your ears are ringing. Everything's fuzzy. Your vision is blurry. You're dizzy. There's dust and smoke everywhere."  Dazed, the service member surveyed a grisly scene: "Head wounds, heavy bleeding, lots of perforated eardrums, and then just shrapnel all over, so folks are bleeding from their abdomen, bleeding from arms, bleeding from legs."

Yep, I like this phrase "something like what you see in the movies"--correct, it is very symptomatic, because the US Army doesn't know what is a precise fire impact of stand-off weapons. Of course, even in Iraq or Afghanistan you still could have been hit by RPG while in Humvee or even experience a nasty IED, that did happen many times, but this is different. Shahed, the Iranian drone can carry anywhere between 50 and 90 kilos of high explosives.  It has the range of up to 2,500 kilometers and fully fits the criteria of a high precision stand-off weapon. It can pay visits in salvos, and often does and the results of that are not what Pentagon tries to spin ... away from the real story. 

Word of Hegseth's description of the events at a press conference in Washington did not sit well with some of the survivors. The secretary had described the drone as a "squirter" that "happened to hit a tactical operations center that was fortified, but these are powerful weapons." And while several of those familiar with the events on the ground did not agree with the description, they did not want their remarks to be misconstrued. "It's not my intent to diminish morale or to disparage the Army or the Department of War more holistically, but I do think that telling the truth is important and we're not going to learn from these mistakes if we pretend these mistakes didn't happen," one soldier said.

I have news for this brave soldier--Pentagon doesn't learn, it cannot, look at the SMO. It is a different kind of war, which no US servicemen ever experienced, they did now. And that brings us to a purely technical issue:

Asked if the attack was an inherent reality of engaging in combat, he agreed. "That's true," he said. Asked if this attack was preventable, the soldier added: "In my opinion, absolutely, yes." "I am very sad for their loss and it's something I'll carry with me for the rest of my life," he said. "But I'm also immensely proud of them and their sacrifice, and their family should be too."

1. The US has no air defense means to deal with one of this threats. Shaheds will continue to fly and will continue, together with ballistic and cruise missiles, take out anything they deem necessary. The US WILL NOT ask Russia and Russia WILL NOT agree to sell to Pentagon things it doesn't have and will not have any time soon, I list a few: Elka, Tunguska, S1 Pantsir, Tor M2, Buk M3 et al. No, it was not "preventable". 

2. Poor men who got killed. Their sacrifice was for Israel and not for the US Constitution and American people. Only part of American people but their loyalty is with Israel. 

Per Hegseth, something tells me he soon will be fired and maybe even more. Die you today for me to live and die tomorrow. That's Trump's MO.  

Oh, I Know Why.

 We all do. 

WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Army Chief of Staff Randy George has been asked to step down by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and take immediate retirement, two U.S. defense officials and a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday. Hegseth, a former Fox News host, has moved quickly to reshape the department, firing top generals and admirals as he seeks to implement Trump's national security agenda. The sources did not indicate why Hegseth asked George to leave his post. The move was first reported by CBS News. George, an infantry officer who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, was confirmed to the top Army post in 2023. Terms in that role usually run for four years. Prior to holding the top job, George was the vice chief of the Army and, before that, the senior military adviser to then-Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

As was correctly pointed out, Pittie is a former FOX News host with degree in death cult Scofiled Bible and with the mentality of an NCO or, at best, Platoon Commander. Pittie doesn't know what REAL operations are, and his "experience" in Afghanistan counts for nothing. Randy George, however, commanded 4th Infantry Division (remember--division is the first OPERATIONAL level formation), then he commanded I Corps before moving to high level staff positions. He graduated from USMA at West Point and Naval War College. So, Randy, probably told Hegseth that military science and operational planning in this war lead the US Army into the slaughterhouse. But Pittie is pittie and he thinks himself a great strategist because this is what is written in Scofield Bible and American boys and girls must die for Israel. So, anyone who disagrees is ... anti-Semite. OK. There are many Christian Zionist fanatics in Pentagon, so he will find the substitute in no time. 

That Is What Happens ...

 ... when your officer corps looks like this)) 

And most of it have been taught fairy tales in "academies" and war colleges. 

About 1,500 targets in a single day: that is the scale U.S. Army leaders say they are preparing for in a large-scale war in Europe. The projection, informed by the Russia-Ukraine war, is shaping how the service thinks about automation and speed, officials told reporters Thursday. Army commanders issued the warning as they shared reflections on Dynamic Front 26, a multinational exercise in Europe that brings together U.S. and NATO forces to rehearse the coordination of long-range fires in a high-intensity conflict. Drawing on lessons from Ukraine, the leaders described a battlefield where waves of drones, missiles and artillery could generate targets faster than a traditional headquarters can process them. The exercise focused on moving targeting data across national boundaries and between different systems. “We need to be able to intercept, defeat 600 to 1,200 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range one-way attack drones every 24-hour period,” said Brig. Gen. Steven Carpenter, the commanding general of Multidomain Command Europe. Those numbers, he said, reflect the scale of attacks seen in Ukraine.

I have news for Gen. Steven Carpenter (if anyone wonders who this general is and his official bio from Pentagon):

1. For any associated with Wisbaden NATO officer is like being branded a loser, because Wisbaden group "planning" killed many hundreds of thousands of khohol and gave us all a "masterpiece" of military incompetence in 2023 "counter-offensive". He should ask his boss--General Donahue;

2. Any references to the "experience" of "Russian-Ukrainian War" by the US Army is a joke--counting beans of missiles and loitering munitions, accompanied, of course, with comments from VSU, is wrong for starters, because MRAU (Массированный Ракетно-Авиационный Удар--Massed Missile-Aviation Strike) in case NATO decides to "fight" Russia will not be "600 to 1,200 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range one-way attack drones every 24-hour period"--it will be at least twice larger and it could be sustained for months;

3. Here comes the most important part: US Army has NO kinetic means of intercepting any salvo composed of three to four different types of stand off weapons, not to mention the fact that US so called Air Defense is incapable of intercepting super-sonic, let alone hyper-sonic weapons. Considering the state of the Raytheon and what it sells, the US will run out of any "defensive missiles" within first two-three weeks and will sustain at least 3,600 casualties a day ...

Reality, of course, will be even grimmer, especially if General Carpenter heard about assembly areas for division and Brigade Combat Teams formations. If he thinks that US Army formations communicate through holy spirit and ESP (you know, Shining) I have news for him--no matter EMCON, they will be detected, identified and targeting provided. Single Oreshnik, or three-four of Kinzhals, or salvo of 5-6 Iskanders ... so, make your own conclusions.  

The "transformation of the US Army" is impossible, because you cannot change cultural and military genetics--it will remain what it always was--an expeditionary force with obsolete TOE and with largely confabulated military history throughout the XX century. It doesn't mean that there are no courageous people or competent officers in the US Army. Of course there are, there are many robust professionals up to a level of division, after that ... So, let them wet dream. Or "spread targeting across borders", as one child correctly stated:

Because you do not come to the gunfight with a knife--the truth many US generals didn't learn yet, many never will. And don't start me on the officer corps education. 

Now I Am Worried.

 And no, it is not typical NYP BS. Sadly it is true.

A top US Army general stationed in South Korea said he’s been turning to an artificial intelligence chatbot to help him think through key command and personal decisions — the latest sign that even the Pentagon’s senior leaders are experimenting with generative AI tools. Maj. Gen. William “Hank” Taylor, commanding general of the Eighth Army, told reporters at the Association of the United States Army conference in Washington, DC, that he’s been using ChatGPT to refine how he makes choices affecting thousands of troops. “Chat and I have become really close lately,” Taylor said during a media roundtable Monday, though he shied away from giving examples of personal use. 

I repeat again--AI, Artificial Intelligence, does not exist. Neural networks based on English language searches (libraries) are as "reliable" as WiKi. So, can you imagine what kind of military decisions one can make based on ChatGPT? But then again, Royal Navy had to run ad at LinkedIn to get itself a Commander of its submarine force. 

Daniel Davis.

I don't see the change of a doctrine in the US--simply no military cultural DNA required for it. 

It is in the political top which, as we all saw, is corrupted to the core with deluded idiocy of supremacy based on ... nothing. In the end, as I repeat ad nauseam--war is a cultural affair, always was, always will be. Those in the US military who get it, like Daniel Davis, they are not allowed anywhere near political influence required for reshaping the US military in what it is supposed to be--a strong but compact Army whose main focus should be on defense of the US proper, and powerful enough Navy capable to "unlock" critical chokepoints in Atlantic and Pacific. The idiocy of "power projection" based on obsolete carrier airpower, which also bankrupts the US, is not the way to go. Missile weaponry is not waiting to US Navy's air defense to catch up. 

Now About "Swedish" Case.

I mentioned it in my today's video. Yes, this is 100% confirmed info by people who command the Russian formation which did this. How do I know? Well, I know many things which sometimes are not for public disclosure until they are mentioned by "holders of information". So, on one operational axis Russians took this Swedish Commander (an equivalent of Lieutenant-Colonel) POW. He was guarded by one of the Baltic states security detail--easy-peasy for the level of Russian guys who disposed of them. So, this officer, staff officer for VSU (AFU) exhibited a level of tactical and operational "ability" which, for the lack of a better word, is not even rudimentary--it is fairy taleish. He really believed that if his formation attacked in a designated sector Russians were supposed to retreat, nay, run and that this guy's troops would reach objective no problem. Ooops, but for some unknown, incomprehensible reasons, not only Russians defended their objective, but, damn, they unloaded a firestorm and then, would you believe it, they counterattacked. This is not what they teach them in NATO's military academies. 

When I say that NATO officer corps is utterly unprepared for modern war, I mean it. Remarkably, you can sort of address this on a tactical level in a sense that you can teach them to maneuver and consider the opponent--and even that is useless under modern conditions. But the problem is both on tactical and operational level is that Russians outrange and outfire ANYTHING NATO can bring to bear. I am on record--Iraq War experience counts for nothing and, in fact, is a huge obstacle. This also explains a bunch of the American loser generals (like Ben Hodges) suffering form an acute case of butthurt and professional envy. It is now a confirmed fact--NATO doesn't understand the role of air defense in modern war. In their mind it was supposed to to be always this: 

When comparing our ability to find the enemy against a near-peer threat such as Russia (or an increasingly capable China), significant friendly capability disadvantages immediately become apparent and must be offset. FM 3-0 defines reconnaissance as “a mission undertaken to obtain, by visual observation or other detection methods, information about the activities and resources of an enemy or adversary, or to secure data concerning the meteorological, hydrographic, or geographic characteristics of a particular area.”4 By this definition, we must look at every capability, across all domains, to understand the existing disparities in our ability to collect information against current threats. 

This middle segment "Conduct large-scale ground combat" disappears. Technically, the US could (not will) "find the enemy", but that's about it, the doctrinal pivot of the US Armed Forces of bringing the long-range fires to bear disappears also. No, the US still has the lead in terms of satellite-based ISR (Russia is catching up), per pure signal recon--well, that's complicated. Russians jam better than anyone in the world and then there is this teeny-weeny detail of pre-positioning. So, you see-this Swedish commander was thinking that he would be facing those peasant Ivans with pitch-forks and hiding behind piles of Russian corpses and running away at the first glance of NATO equipment guided to battle with NATO (his) tactical and operational brilliance. But, but ... well, you know the story now. Doctrinal catastrophe is not visible to the average Joe, but it is the most profound catastrophe NATO faces when they have to understand how amateurish and militarily impotent they are. The cognitive dissonance is a bitch. 

So, somebody in the US Army (not Ben Hodges let alone Kellog) was thinking in the right direction in 2019. 

Russian integrated air defense systems (IADS) make sustained air superiority questionable, especially at the beginning of operations when geographical proximity to positioned Russian forces enables their deliberate emplacement. With our current systems, we will only be able to create temporary windows of superiority with great effort. The Russians employ IADS at every tactical level, from battalion to division, with a focus on finding and destroying U.S. fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft. They are also steadily working toward overmatch in the field of counterfire radar, fielding a variety of systems across the depths of their formations and with varying levels of capability. This might enable the Russian fires complex to “out attrite” our own counterfire capabilities, leaving them with the only systems on the battlefield. 

Too bad, they didn't recognize the scale of the NATO tactical and operational rut which prevents the most important thing--internalization of the issue--guiding you to correct decisions. They wanted to try, they did. Somebody tell Trump--the US Army didn't produce a general the scale of Erich von Manstein or Georgi Zhukov, or Konstantin Rokossovsky in the last 80 years. Russia did, and that's what makes the world of difference. 

Why They Are Not Bright.

The US is a fractured nation (or using Huntington's lingo--a torn one) and against the background of a precipitous (always not very high) decline of cognitive abilities of the best of the best the US "elite machine" produces, be them politicians or military, one has to question motives of those so called "elites". Going back to this NYT piece (of shit), Larry did a good write up about it yesterday: 

I can summarize the massive story in one sentence — Ukraine would have destroyed the weak, incompetent Russians if only the Ukrainian generals had followed the guidance from the US military. If you’re looking for a signal that the war in Ukraine is on its last legs, this article is it. This is a ridiculous attempt to burnish the image of the Pentagon and US European Command as strategic and tactical geniuses who could have beaten the Russians if only those damn Ukrainians had followed their advice.

But here is the critical point which is very interesting for Russian General Staff and military academies where, now confirmed by the NYT, intellectual impotence of Pentagon will be studied in astonishment for years to come. Here is this phrase. 

One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said.

Let me translate it to you: using one of many definitions (all of them very similar) we define the Kill Chain as: kill chain is the ability of an organization to rapidly and accurately execute all the steps from locating to killing an enemy target. It represents the essential contest in modern warfare. In other words, cretins from NYT confirmed what Russians knew all along--the US was in full command and control of VSU top-bottom. Well, apart from the moral aspect of the story that the US military excelled primarily in attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure, the conclusion is not only warranted but inescapable--US military knows very little about modern warfare, especially in the C2 (Command and Control) field where even modern Comms, Computers and ISR are no match to a much more experienced and technologically advanced opponent with an immense advantage in kinetic means. 

For those who still do not understand the depth of this loss for--now we can openly state it--the US Armed Forces in 404, I want to remind you one thing which has been repeated by Russian military non-stop--Russian Army never lost operational initiative. American generals, however, have been looking, as it is now a pattern, in all the wrong places for planning and, as is always the case, descended into the tactical minutiae and PR-based assessment of the battlefield. The fact that they also bought 404's propaganda about casualties also tells everything you need to know about Pentagon. By the time they started to suspect something--it was too late. And then there was a "counter-offensive". It was planned by the US generals and, naturally, it ended in catastrophe for them and those unlucky 160,000+ VSU who have never reached even the first line of Russian defense and have been slaughtered in the forefield (security zone). This is what I wrote about this disaster for NATO and, naturally, strategic victory for Russia. 

The most stunning factor in this whole situation was the fact of not classifying the so-called “counter-offensive” by AFU, while classifying the assessment which, correctly, forecasted some serious issues for the AFU. This assessment was definitely driven by a common military sense and basic understanding of what is called the Correlation of Forces and Means (COFM). Of course, the problem for the West was that the Russian side was preparing to turn those “shortfalls” into unmitigated military catastrophe for Ukraine and the Biden Administration, who had pushed for this amateurishly planned adventure. But even this “classified” assessment—a marked departure from the Biden administration’s public pronouncements about the vitality of Ukraine’s army—should have given the planners in the White House, State Department and Pentagon a serious pause. But it didn’t. The reason it didn’t lies in both the U.S. military’s lack of expertise with real modern warfare of the 21st century across the board and in a precipitous intellectual decline of the fully “echo-chambered” Washington elite, whose insulation from reality and lack of serious competencies in any matters of military strategies and national governance reached grotesque and deadly proportions for both the remnants of Ukraine and for the United States itself. 

I can go off on a tangent of sorts here (again) while describing a dramatic cultural and institutional difference between American "way" of war and Russian one, but that is just the part of problem--the problem is in incompetence of American elites who are the products of a completely confabulated history and of fragile insecure view of themselves. The US is not the "finest fighting force" and it never has been and because of that, as Michael Brenner astutely noted:

Americanism provides a Unified Field Theory of self-identity, collective enterprise, and the Republic’s enduring meaning. When one element is felt to be in jeopardy, the integrity of the whole edifice becomes vulnerable. In the past, American mythology energized the country in ways that helped it to thrive. Today, it is a dangerous hallucinogen that traps Americans in a time warp more and more distant from reality. There is a muted reflection of this strained condition in the evident truth that Americans have become an insecure people. They grow increasingly anxious about who they are, what they are worth and what life will be like down the road. 

By getting involved with 404 and trying to destroy Russia, the US and its chihuahuas from European NATO collapsed this edifice and exposed a rather unimpressive structure which convinced itself that it can fight and win a conventional war against military superpower of Russia which has been such a superpower longer than the United States existed as a nation. A few good (and competent) men cannot fix the mechanism which was broken for decades and the SMO confirmed it fully. NYT, however, gave us an ample confirmation that the US ran the whole damn thing from military standpoint, and this is a critical admission. Or as they say on the street--FAFO. I thank you, NYT, for not being bright and exposing, accidently, the truth.     

You Basically Signed Up For This (c) US Army))

Babylon Bee is at it again)) 

Why America Loses Wars.

Because when you have such a level of arrogance (look at this guy's ribbons, LOL))) and ignorance from your top brass (iPhone 14, really, the one which is made in China)--what do you expect. This guy wouldn't be allowed to run a fucking company in Russian Army. 

At first I thought he was joking, but no--he really believes this shit. At least he didn't promise to take on Russian Army. The US military culture is simple--it is self-aggrandizing and trash talk.

An Interesting Quip...

... from Douglas Macgregor.  Same ol' issue of SLOCs and sustainability of any US force in Europe. 

RFK JR is spot on regarding Washington’s poorly disguised attempt to drag us into war with Russia, but the situation in Ukraine is very different and we have no ground troops to send. The European peoples don’t want a war and neither do Americans. In 1965 the mood in America was very supportive of intervention in SE Asia to fight communism. I know. I was there. It would take four years for American support to collapse.  In addition, for reasons of geography, Ukraine cannot become another Vietnam. In 1965 no one could or would interdict us on the way to Vietnam. Today, Russian subs would immediately shut down the Atlantic and all of our staging areas in Eastern Europe would utterly demolished in a hail of missiles. Worse, US-NATO air and missile defenses are only capable of defending 5% of NATO’s European territory. In the space of 5-7 daisy our missile supply would be exhausted. I could go on, but you get the point. It’s a dead end. Any attempt to mimic the approach to Vietnam will end abruptly and badly for the US and Europe. That was the point that Orban tried to make.

Well. Technological and operational reality is a bitch, you cannot escape it, no matter how you try and any shipping through Atlantic Ocean will be ground to a halt in a matter of days. Naval warfare changed dramatically and you can not defend SLOCs from technology which is several generations ahead of whatever Houthis have, plus add here massive quantities of it. We all know what Houthis did and how they paralyzed marine traffic in the Red Sea. Combined NATO navies couldn't a thing about it other than barely defending themselves. Now imagine when a couple of Yasens (pr. 885) and several Akulas (pr. 971M) go out to hunt--good luck trying finding them without risking own aircraft carries. Just classic escort by something like Arleigh Burke class DDGs is a death trap, because no US asset has the ability to deal with salvos of newest anti-shipping missiles. So, no good options. Those escorts will be sunk and "convoy" or dispersed group of strategic lift vessels will be found out and sunk too. It is 2024, Ladies and Gentleman, not 1943.

But in the end, let's imagine that the US somehow manages to put some force into Europe--it will not be sustainable in the serious war no matter what. Have you seen the US "force protection" capabilities? Patriot PAC3, NASAMS et al--seriously? That's you answer. I'll remind you--estimates for US casualties in such a war will average for the US Army on 3,600 KIAs and WIAs daily. US Army is incapable to fight such a war even if to imagine that SLOCs somehow will be relatively safe. Neither is American society.

A Bit Of Clarification.

I am glad that Moat brought this up. Thank you.

Almost everything is right in this statement by this Retired US Army Major Richard Ojeda except one thing. This one thing is that US Army could never provide "real training" to VSU because US Army "training" and Field Manuals are written for beating the shit out of almost defenseless enemies. He got it exactly upside down--it was the US "training" which VSU discarded as useless for real war. Here is NYT.

Ukrainian Troops Trained by the West Stumble in Battle. Ukraine’s army has for now set aside U.S. fighting methods and reverted to tactics it knows best.

No US servicemen from General to the last grunt ever experienced the real combined arms multi-domain war, period. Some Ukie brigade commander who survived through the last 20 months of SMO can lecture JCS or any professor in US Command and General Staff College in Leavenworth on how to fight a real war. And yes, Afghanistan is not and never was a combined arms war. And yes, NATO built the best proxy it ever had by far. VSU was actually a real army and on the February 24, 2022 it was the best NATO's army, except for the US Army. So, major was a bit sloppy with his parallel to Afghanistan. Other than that, he is correct. 

Send This Rambo To The Real War.

And then see how he will talk and sing once he experiences it, or is taken POW by Akhmat guys. But then again, Apti Alaudinov and his people are pure military class, they treat POWs humanely and it is in Russia's combat manuals. You cannot buy class, you are either brought up with it, or you are not--simple as that.

Jimmy is spot on, it is the case of Jerusalem Redneck. The whole thing is down right a grotesque caricature on serious military. Sadly, it is not a joke or put on.

What Do You Know...

I speak about this constantly--American success in the XX century was in productive capacity which gave us many a splendored things--from style, to a vision of a future, to industry, to Old Hollywood, to American technological and entrepreneurial genius, to a vibrant modern culture... until the United States decided that it has a say in the continental warfare. This is when things started to go haywire. Russians decided to do what any father would do:

And now Mr. Peskov does "correcting"--a thing I was warning about for 10+ years. 

There is no way the Russian military can be defeated, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has insisted. His comments follow recent claims by President Vladimir Putin that Western governments were lowering their expectations regarding the outcome of the Ukraine conflict. Speaking to Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin on Thursday, Peskov stated “it is high time that everyone in Kiev and Washington realized: it’s impossible to defeat Russia on the battlefield.”

It is difficult to explain to people who bought Wehrmacht's fairy tales about fighting Russians and killing like... one trillion of them and still losing the war, that the real war has noting to do with their academics. But that what is taught in the US military academies whose tactical and operational curricula was written by Nazi generals, including Colonel Macgregor's favorite shtick about Stalin executing "one million" Red Army soldiers. But, one cannot deny the fact that Manstein, Model, Guderian, Hoth and many others have been much better than any American general and all of them have been defeated by Russians. You know, those peasants from the Red Army. So, Russians, as of today--November 9, 2023, "corrected" all that. I am on record, quoting Sasha Rogers, US cannot do strategy, it does business plans only.

Really?

LOL. 

По приглашению Европейского командования Вооруженных сил США 1-3-его ноября первый заместитель министра обороны РА, начальник Генерального штаба ВС РА, генерал-лейтенант Эдвард Асрян посетил штаб-квартиру Европейского командования США в Штутгарте. 3-его ноября состоялась встреча с заместителем командира Европейского командования США, генерал-лейтенантом Стивеном Башами. В ходе встречи обсуждены вопросы развития армяно-американского военного сотрудничества. Генерал-лейтенант Эдвард Асрян представил детали проводимых в Вооруженных силах РА реформ, и ожидаемую от США поддержку в деле их реализации. Генерал-лейтенант Стивен Башам выразил готовность США продолжать содействие текущим программам сотрудничества, а также инициировать новые направления сотрудничества по следующим сферам: профессионализация вооруженных сил, укрепление профессионального сержантского состава, модернизация системы управления, миротворчество, военная медицина, военное образование и боевая подготовка, учения и прочее. Обсуждены также вопросы региональной безопасности. В рамках визита генерал-лейтенант Эдвард Асрян посетил также расположенный в Гогенфельсе (ФРГ) объединенный многонациональный центр подготовки Сухопутных войск США в Европе (Joint Multinational Readiness Center - JMRC) и Академию сержантского состава (NCO Academy).

Translation:  At the invitation of the European Command of the US Armed Forces, on November 1-3, the First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia, Chief of the General Staff of the RA Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Edward Asryan visited the headquarters of the US European Command in Stuttgart. On November 3, a meeting was held with the Deputy Commander of the US European Command, Lieutenant General Stephen Bashamy. During the meeting, issues of development of Armenian-American military cooperation were discussed. Lieutenant General Edward Asryan presented details of the reforms being carried out in the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia, and the support expected from the United States in their implementation. Lieutenant General Stephen Basham expressed the United States' readiness to continue to facilitate ongoing cooperation programs, as well as initiate new areas of cooperation in the following areas: professionalization of the armed forces, strengthening of professional non-commissioned officers, modernization of the command and control system, peacekeeping, military medicine, military education and combat training, exercises and other. Issues of regional security were also discussed. As part of the visit, Lieutenant General Edward Asryan also visited the Joint Multinational Readiness Center (JMRC) and the NCO Academy located in Hohenfels (Germany).

Listen, I always maintained the decorum, professional respect and giving the credit where the credit is due for the US Army. This is not the case anymore--SMO demonstrated a sheer incompatibility of the US ground forces doctrine and TOE for REAL war and combined arms operations. Moreover, I am on record--US military will learn very precious little in terms of VSU "lessons" due to lack of access to correlates of war, which are in the foundation of real lessons and adjustments on operational and strategic levels. The fact that some tactical lessons could be learned and some adjustments made in Field Manuals here and there change very little in the Pentagon's clockwork. 

The fact that what remains of VSU at some point of time simply refused to follow NATO "training"--the fact extremely well documented by media--is already a red flag in regards to "a finest fighting force in history"(c). The issue here is TOE--it is for beating up third rate militaries. Practically all US Army technology turned out to be no match for modern battlefield as did operational concepts. But, on the second thought, it is, probably only natural for the US "training" to be applied to its lapdogs, because it is precisely this "audience" which is still susceptible to military fairy tales conceived in Pentagon and a network of "military" think-tanks (such as Institute for Study of War, LOL) who face now an arduous task of admitting their sheer military incompetence and impotence. It is no secret, Russian are openly now laughing at American generals. Battlefield results speak for themselves. Let them "train" another provider of cannon fodder.   

Oh, Please!

The US Army studied armored warfare based on Patton's "advances" against virtually non-existent Wehrmacht's armor in Lorraine, and from the fairy tales by Manstein and Guderian, who had to confabulate in order to explain how, in the end, they got beaten by Katukov and Rotmistrov tank armies. The turkey shoot in the Gulf added very little, in fact--detracted, from the combined arms, and all attempts by honorable David Glantz and Jonathan House to change the perspective on the Red Army and WW II made a huge splash, but still failed. This was inevitable, when one operated on correlates of war, this ever valuable war statistics, lifted directly from Nazi sources. GIGO--Garbage In, Garbage Out. 

Now, as RT notices, they want to train based on... drum roll--"lessons from Ukraine". 

The US is preparing its troops for future wars by examining the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and fielding its own experiments based on experience gained from that battlefield, Defense One reported on Thursday. The National Training Center (NTC) in California and the Joint Readiness Training Center (JRTC) are training US service members to use drones, electronic surveillance, and satellites and combine them with artillery strikes, according to commanders who spoke with the outlet. At the same time, troops are learning to conceal themselves from enemy drones and surveillance. “The thing we struggle the most with is this business of a transparent battlefield,” Brigadier General Curtis Taylor, the head of the NTC, told the outlet. He explained that his center has been teaching soldiers to hide from UAVs in buildings and minimize the use of communication equipment. Meanwhile, the JRTC has reportedly been pushing units to simplify their command posts to be put up and taken down quickly. 

Ah, poor-poor lads, tactics is important and all--surely one needs to conceal oneself but tactical, let alone operational, manuals--the level at which outcomes of wars are decided--are written very differently than a collection of anecdotal evidence from grunts on the ground, however important those are. In order for one to understand, as the original from Defense One piece describes:

Drones, electronic surveillance, and satellites allow adversaries to easily identify U.S. formations, Taylor said—and combining that data with artillery or missiles means the enemy can strike anywhere, anytime. At JRTC, forces playing the “opposing force,” called OPFOR, have learned to fly drones that use apps to scan for Bluetooth or WiFi signals, Gardner said. 

While EMCON is just a teeny-weeny part of a much larger picture of massive scale combined arms and multi-domain operations one needs what the US never got from her wars starting from Korea, because one cannot interrogate the enemy which is not a loser but quite the opposite--has beaten the US. That means an extremely limited access to viable combat statistics, especially in terms of crucial correlates between combat effectiveness of formations and weapons' arsenal they use. Now, add here a complete caricature 404 provides in terms of combat data to NATO and you will get the idea. No number of the US Army officers on the ground in 404 will change the paradigm, even with 24/7 work of US ISR complex. One still NEEDS those huge arrays of combat information for systematization and generalization in order to develop operational and strategic models for victory on the battlefield. And bar some SIGINT and localized data at the locations of already utterly demolished VSU, US Army and Intel is not getting access to the most important data sets. 

And then, of course, there is the issue of hardware, or, speaking in more learned language--procurement policies. It is as simple as 2 x 4 piece of lumber:

1. If you don't have AD which even remotely is as capable as that of Russia--you are left only to despair (or salivate) at the element of war which you cannot change, because the impact of your air forces and long range fires is diminished dramatically. Suddenly, it becomes the issue of strategy and even politics. 

2. If you don't have hypersonic weapons, let alone integrate them into your TOE, what is that you gonna do? Train for what? Right, just conceal yourself and your HQ which still is NOT going to help since HQs and Comm. Posts by definition are C4 units and will be detected and annihilated. So, how are you going "to train" for that. Surely, the Parameters prescription is dubious at best: 

The Army must focus on developing command-and-control systems and mobile command posts that enable continuous movement, allow distributed collaboration, and synchronize across all warfighting functions to minimize electronic signature.  

You can minimize, you cannot eliminate it.

3. You CANNOT train the US Army for 3,600 casualties a day. Most importantly, you CANNOT train American public to accept such a price, especially being paid fighting who knows where for who knows what objectives, unless one turns the US into Orwellian prison-state, which is in progress as I type this. But even then...

At this stage the VSU lost half-a-million KIAs and at least twice this number of wounded. And this is the lower-end estimates. These numbers are much higher than US Army's all KIAs in WW II and Vietnam combined. 

But in the end, you cannot turn expeditionary colonial army into continental juggernaut--you simply cannot. Sheer economics and weapons enter the set of considerations here, which cannot be properly discussed within one short post. So, they can train whatever they want, but no training, however important on human-professional level, can substitute tools of 21st century war. But then again, I repeat ad nauseam--the West lost the arms race. To demonstrate, here is one such butt-hurt imbecile: 

The dismal performance of Russia’s conventional forces in the early days of the war in Ukraine risks convincing some in NATO that the future Russian threat to the Alliance can be deterred primarily via NATO’s conventional superiority, and that enhancing deterrence of Russian nuclear use in a future conflict is therefore no longer a high priority. This is a dangerous fallacy. 

The guy is full of shit, with "degree" in... international relations and is completely lost in his pseudo-expertise, but he is REPRESENTATIVE  of the "intellectual" level of current US military-political top which is NOT trainable or is capable of learning, and this is a grim reality of the defeat of the combined West. You cannot win when the only thing you know is how to operate in GIGO mode.

Why It Might Be Over...

... sooner than we think. My friend Marat Khairullin gave yesterday a superb sitrep (sadly only in Russian): 

He describes in detail a sorry state of VSU, which is corroborated by other reliable sources, but goes further and describes occasions on which frontline VSU units have been actually... cooperating with Russian Army. The statistics of even regiment-brigade level sniper groups (number of those groups varies, but it is more than a few) is altogether terrifying since it is pretty normal for one of each such groups to kill between 20 to 30 VSU personnel in a single night. That gives a good perspective on a scale of VSU losses and also confirms my constant point that Russian MoD is very conservative in stating VSU losses. 

But even these "conservative" estimates are terrifying. Here is butcher's bill for today from Russian MoD. 

In 7 days--almost 5,000 KIAs. No wonder then that it is reported now that many VSU soldiers simply refuse to attack and prefer to sit in trenches without moving--totally understandable. Which brings us to Larry's excellent piece yesterday, which I also discuss today in my new video which will be up shortly. 

A friend still involved in the day-to-day operations sent me the following video. He said this is making the rounds among the Company Grade Officers (i.e., 2d Lt, 1 Lt, and Captains) and enlisted personnel. A majority of the American military actually believes this stuff, especially the Zoomers. Reddit, the main social media app of today’s youth, is chock full of this garbage. 

Although the video is a lame attempt at humor, the narrative/meme is not a joke. Many younger officers genuinely believe that we have Russia over a barrel and can take out Putin at will. It is one thing for the average guy or gal on the street to believe such nonsense, but it is terrifying to learn that many U.S. military officers, both junior and senior (including Flag Officers, i.e. Generals), are so deluded.

This is not surprising at all--average modern US Army company level officer, especially "taught" military history on the examples of Patton's "exploits" and the "yardstick" of turkey shoot in the Gulf, wouldn't take seriously nowadays the history of Operation Zitadel (started on July 5, 1943) 80 years ago and the scale of events US Army simply has no experience of dealing with. Yes, July 5-July 12, 1943--Zitadelle, after that--Kursk Offensive Operation. 

This scale is beyond the experiences of the US Armed Forces, as is Stalingrad, Operation Bagration, Liberation of Balkans and many other things and they simply cannot take it. And so is SMO. Only one American historian of note--David Eisenhower, the grandson--had enough courage to point to the 800 pound gorilla in the room which was and remains a professional envy. Considering the fact that America's resurgence and superpowerdom originated in WW II, acknowledging military and geopolitical realities of the last 85 years on a political level in the US would mean undermining America's mythology not just militarily, but on a national level and would represent in itself a Koschei The Immortal proverbial tip of a needle, which, when broken, kills him. But it merely reinforces my position for many years, decades really, that the US never realized itself as true continental power because this realization comes only through continental warfare of scale. One simply cannot buy itself a military history no matter how one tries. 

Why, Oh Why;))

Politico, through the writing of its amateur shysters "educated" in US degree mills in "international studies" or other "communications" type skills and some of who actually finally got their pubes growing (read their C.V.s--it is LOL) wonders: 

The Biden administration has yet to use its Lend-Lease authorities to send weapons to Ukraine, senior administration officials and lawmakers told NatSec Daily. The U.S. under President JOE BIDEN has committed nearly $35 billion in security assistance for Kyiv since Russia’s invasion, all of it coming from drawdowns of U.S. military stocks or future weapons production. But Congress also gave Biden Lend-Lease authority last year, allowing the U.S. to cut through bureaucratic red tape and gift weapons to Ukraine with the expectation of reimbursement down the line. To date, the administration has chosen not to use that option, mainly because the congressionally approved pot of money that hasn’t been zeroed out yet. “We are prioritizing security assistance that they would not have to pay us back for,” a senior administration official said on the condition of anonymity to detail sensitive internal discussions. However, the official added that the administration is “certainly open to using it in the future.” The focus right now is on “other existing authorities that Congress has authorized.” Another reason for keeping Lend-Lease in the back pocket could be because there’s currently bipartisan support for sending weapons to Ukraine. Should Republican resistance grow, or popular sentiment turn against the war, then it’d make sense to use Lend-Lease to work around legislative efforts to block future weapons deliveries, said a Democratic congressional aide who was granted anonymity to speak freely about the party’s thinking.

OK, let me translate it into normal human language: no matter what  the congressional hustle, a euphemism for pretending to "legislate", is, the United States of 2023 and the United States of 1941 are two different countries and the United States of 2023, allowed for adjustments, is an economic dwarf compared to its own self circa 1942-43. But that fact, meaning inability to fight REAL large scale combined arms war, aside the whole idea seeing American weapons, around which the mythology of American military was built in the last 30 years, is a terrifying idea for many in Washington. And those weapons will burn in industrial quantities because they are simply not designed for real large war. 

I repeat ad nauseam for many years, that American politics, built primarily around PR and show off for the consumption of increasingly docile "electorate", cannot permit PR disasters of a scale which will completely and finally disclose America's military-economic impotence. The question here is NOT just about US' inability to produce or ramp up production of the key war materiel. No, the issue is scarier--it is operational-strategic and the whole boondoggle with 404 suicide "planning" in NATO exposed utter military military incompetence across the board. As I spoke yesterday in my video--most US fighting "doctrines" such as SEAD, combined arms, a proverbial Airland Battle, which "transitioned" into Multi-Domain Operations are nothing more than white-board theories based on beating Iraq or appropriating the "experience" of Israeli Army--hardly a good yardstick for real war. Yet, here it is. 

In the end, apart from incompatibility of the US arsenal for the needs of such operations as SMO, one can now openly and confidently state that the U.S. Army wouldn't fare much better than VSU and even with the best it has got for the battlefield a wholesale annihilation of high-value assets such as shooting down AWACS and combat planes, destroying battalion worth of personnel and its hardware daily, not to speak of the suppression of ISR, one can only speculate on the way the US Army would react to such realities. And, of course, the stream of KIAs and wounded back to the US would have a dramatic effect politically. It is one thing to lose 56,000 KIAs in Vietnam over 10 years, totally another is losing 150,000-170,000 KIAs in 12 months. When all those facts are considered, the answer to the title of the Politico BS Why Biden hasn’t loaned weapons to Ukraine is easily found. But Politico as well as most US establishment media wouldn't even dare to go there. Plus, most of people who work there as "contributors" are ignorant morons anyway and do as told by their party or intel services curators. 

I am not being too harsh, in the exhibit A of how to commit suicide on the national level, Spiegel reports:

Atomausstieg ist laut Habeck unumkehrbar. Am Samstag ist Schluss: Die drei letzten deutschen Atomkraftwerke werden abgeschaltet. Und zwar endgültig, sagt der Wirtschaftsminister. In der Ampel – und in der Bevölkerung – sehen das nicht alle so. 

Translation: According to Habeck, the nuclear phase-out is irreversible It's over on Saturday: the last three German nuclear power plants will be shut down. And finally, says the Economics Minister. Not everyone sees it that way in the traffic light – and in the population.

I will repeat again, as I did for many years now, the nation which consistently makes "green" party and its affiliates a serious political force has some severe psychological, if not psychiatric, issues. The economic demolition of the Western Civilization continues. In related news, however:

Hungary has reached an agreement with Russian energy company Gazprom on possible gas supplies in excess of what is provided for in long-term contracts, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said during a visit to Moscow on Tuesday. The announcement followed talks with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak and the CEO of Russian nuclear energy major Rosatom, Aleksey Likhachev. “We managed to agree with Gazprom the possibility of buying supply volumes in excess of the amount indicated in the long-term contracts, if a need arises in the course of preparation for winter ...mainly through the Turkish Stream [pipeline],” Szijjarto stated. “Today we extended the agreements regarding this possibility,” he added. The sides also discussed a possible acceleration of the ongoing expansion of Hungary’s Paks nuclear power plant by Rosatom. The two countries’ nuclear cooperation has sparked a backlash from some EU member states.

You see, culturally Western Civilization increasingly shifts to the East of the Continent. "Western" (old) Europe is gone.

Poseidon Is In Serial Production.

As TASS reports (in Russian) the first set of combat ready Poseidons have been produced. All tests of Poseidon's systems and blocks have been completed successfully. Well, that surely changes the perspective, doesn't it? Something tells me that real combat Poseidons have been already deposited... who knows where. In related news, WOW!

BRUSSELS (AP) — The U.S. military's new, expanded combat training of Ukrainian forces began in Germany on Sunday, with a goal of getting a battalion of about 500 troops back on the battlefield to fight the Russians in the next five to eight weeks, said Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Milley, who plans to visit the Grafenwoehr training area on Monday to get a first-hand look at the program, said the troops being trained left Ukraine a few days ago. In Germany is a full set of weapons and equipment for them to use. Until now the Pentagon had declined to say exactly when the training would start. The so-called combined arms training is aimed at honing the skills of the Ukrainian forces so they will be better prepared to launch an offensive or counter any surge in Russian attacks. They will learn how to better move and coordinate their company- and battalion-size units in battle, using combined artillery, armor and ground forces.

I am sure Russian Army is shaking with fear anticipating the arrival of those 500 super-pooper warriors trained by the Army which is not exactly keen on real combined arms operations, and I mean real ones. Truth is, I am about to commit a blasphemy, if not for utter corruption and the loss of the best troops, Ukies could have written a few Field Manuals themselves and could teach the US Army a lesson or two on how to fight a real war. But I believe Pentagon's stellar performance in Iraq and Afghanistan is a track record of a supreme mastery of strategy, operational art and tactics which no military, especially those backward primitive Rooskies, can achieve. So, expect soon VSU strategic offensive operations, led by those 500. 

Larry Gives A Context...

Larry Johnson gives a very much needed context, which the US media and their loser "experts" try to avoid as if avoiding death. 

What kind of fighter would Vitali Klitschko, a professional boxer and Mayor of Kiev, be if he only fought amateur boxers from lower weight classes? He would be dominating in those fights. But what would happen if he had to fight a real pro like Tyson Fury? He might win but the outcome would be in doubt since he had never fought a fully trained professional (who just happens to be the current Heavy Weight champion). This analogy describes the current state of the U.S. military. The American people love to say how great and powerful the U.S. military is without pausing to consider the problems those forces had in quelling insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq. Here is the reality–the U.S. military has not been in a battle with a legitimate military force since the Vietnam War. All U.S. military operations since 1990 have been unleashed on third world armies with no effective air power, air defense, artillery or maritime capability. When U.S. troops got into trouble in Afghanistan or Iraq they could call on air strikes or cruise missiles that decimated the attackers. It is like Vitali Klitschko beating the life out of a 150 pound foe who had never taken a boxing lesson.

Larry gets into the much needed operational (and tactical) realities which already begin to emerge in the war in 404 and comparison already IS NOT in US favor. But I warned about it already. Also note, I added Larry's excellent blog A Son of the New American Revolution to my blog-roll on the right side of this blog of mine. Read Larry's thoughts--you'll find many excellent ones there.

It Is A Tired Routine....

 It is also ultimately contrived and, inevitably, false. Here is the deal: 

Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville pushed back Tuesday on the assertion — most recently voiced by President Trump — that the military’s senior leaders are eager to fight wars because doing so benefits defense contractors. “Many of these leaders have sons and daughters that serve in the military,” McConville said, in reference to the military’s flag officers and senior enlisted advisers. “Many of these leaders have sons and daughters that have gone to combat and may be in combat right now. I can assure the American people that the senior leaders would only recommend sending our troops to combat when it’s required for national security and in a last resort.”

This routine is tired, and if McConville thinks that score-cards aren't being filled, he better refer to his  West Point's history class to refresh when was the last time the United States really "gone to combat" to defend Chicago from being overtaken by hordes of barbarians, or what was that deal with famous Battle of Phoenix, Arizona where hundreds of thousands of "sons and daughters" of this land died defending this large urban center in a desert from bombardments and attacks by enemy aviation and tank armies. Hm. I am on record: NO American soldier fought in defense of the United States in modern history--zero, all American military deaths happened in the lands which, when mentioned as a clear and present danger to the American "security", would incite (and they did) a Homeric laughter in any company where one didn't spend last 50 years sleeping under the stone and has at least a half-year of basic military training. 

Yet, they continue to appeal to this simulacrum of America's "national security", most of which is built around a whole host, not just one, of false premises, delusions and sheer economic interest and greed. I am sure the officer of McConville's rank and billet heard about geoeconomics. I, somewhat, empathize with him--after all, he is just a grunt, very high-positioned, but grunt nonetheless and he has to follow orders. In fact, he may be even a very decent man, who knows. But he also has to rationalize, somehow, America's rampage which saw millions upon millions of civilians killed, maimed, displaced, countries devastated and all in a time span of some shitty half-a-century--an instant in historic terms. All in the name of America's "national security", or democracy, or human rights or whatever is the fad. At least 50 years ago one could BS others about Soviet "menace", today it is China, Iran, Venezuela, Russia and the list goes on, and on, and on. And yes, one can lie to oneself and remain in denial for only so long, until cold hard facts of history, geopolitics and warfare begin to catch with one. I do not envy those who will face them and will have enough courage to judge things on the merit--that will be hard, very hard. But for now, the circus must go on and all hollow meaningless invocations delivered with proper conviction and pathos. And yes, there is a shitload of "military leaders" who want to fight wars, preferably not with peer, since it may interfere with their plans on having hefty sinecures on boards of all kinds military-industrial corporations and think-tanks which prompt those. 

My new book is literally writing itself. I also was browsing few days ago Youtube and stumbled on this conversation by Stephen Walt, a notable "defensive realist" in US foreign policy academe.

What is remarkable about this video, though, is the fact of how, while Walt narrates, correctly, the events, he avoids almost completely a serious review of the causes of what he himself defines as failures by "US Foreign Policy Elite". Yes, "elite"; somebody somewhere (and we know many of their names and ranks) were moved by way more than mere "national interests" of the United States--do they even know what those are--and those motives and impetuses had a lot to do with greed, corruption, malfeasance and sheer ambition of mediocrities across the board--from political leadership, to intelligence, to military--who long ago betrayed not only their own country, but even the sense of self-preservation. No amount of emotional appeals can hide this truth. Especially when Trump plans to withdraw more troops from Iraq but, BUT...  

Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, the commander of U.S. Central Command, said he believes the Iraqis welcome the U.S. and coalition troops, especially in the ongoing fight to keep IS fighters from taking hold of the country again.

Goodness, gracious...