Latest News. We are looking at another 11,000 VSU's KIAs in the nearest week or so. First, Kupyansk is encircled (maps--courtesy of Colonel Popov and Marat Khairullin).
And now Krasnoarmeisk (aka Pokrovsk).
Latest News. We are looking at another 11,000 VSU's KIAs in the nearest week or so. First, Kupyansk is encircled (maps--courtesy of Colonel Popov and Marat Khairullin).
And now Krasnoarmeisk (aka Pokrovsk).
... a bit what is going on--from Marat. This is how radical increase in operational tempo looks like. Just one of the operational axis among many others.
... proceedings in Sumy Oblast today. Thanks to Marat and his buddies.
... Slavyanka took Zheleznoye (news from Marat). Toretsk--here they come...
... to 404 and already have been thinking about boasting how they led the offensive which would defeat those backward Russkies. Well, the problem, of course, was that they still thought that US Army Manuals apply for 404 as well as they did in Gulf War. Boy, did they miscalculate. Some interesting points from Marat on Chasov Yar, which only confirm the point I make that no US general can command anything larger than regiment in SMO. They simply have neither knowledge nor experience.
Translation: By the fall of last year, Khortitsa, which at the end of the 2022 was considered the largest military formation among the 4 main formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (240-260 thousand people), lost 150 thousand in just one year. As a result, all the main units, I emphasize, the best that remain at Khortytsya now, concentrated for the defense of Chasov Yar - one at a time, and the majority have already been completely reorganized twice. That is, they were completely destroyed once or twice. But let's take a closer look at them, as this in itself is very interesting. In first place is the supporting and most combat-ready 93rd brigade “Kholodny Yar”. Almost a division in numbers. In two years it was destroyed twice. It is interesting that the “Kholodnye” were considered the most combat-ready, because they fought mainly with the best captured Russian equipment. These are primarily T-72, T-80 and even a few T-90 tanks. And also the best thing the Ukrops had - the T-64 Bulat. The “Kholodnye” were the favorites of the Americans, and, for example, during the autumn-summer campaign of 22, some units were directly led by American officers. True, when the Artyomovskaya meat grinder began, they quickly fled. In second place is the 46th airmobile (airborne) brigade, trained by the British in England, which, by the way, is the most unshabby - it was only reformed once. Next is the 92nd Air Assault Brigade (twice destroyed). These are generally suicide troops. Like the 110th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Avdeevka. They distinguished themselves by carrying out a massacre of our prisoners together with the Kraken battalion in the village of Novoselovskoye near Svatovo in the fall of the 22nd. Then 16 fighters of the Lugansk militia (now the same 4th brigade) died as martyrs. They put bags over their heads and suffocated them. Oh, what will happen when the Luhansk people reach 92nd.
Oh, we know what's gonna happen and it better be done without any phones around. Sadism towards POWs was "trained" by NATO instructors and this is the only thing they are good at. Recall how US media have been ejaculating in mid 2010s from describing H.R. McMaster who became, for a short while, the National Security Adviser to Trump. What many forgot that at some point there was a description of how McMaster's regiment treated Iraqi Army POWs--inhumanely. Remarkably, the piece was in one of the major US outlets--either New Yorker or NYT, one of those. Now I cannot find it. I tried, maybe you can. But this is the type of the "training", which is based on killing a third rate force which cannot shoot back and is demolished by the way of total air superiority. But McMaster's "story" and PR around his exploits in Iraq are totally inapplicable to the realities of modern war with "peer" or "better than peer", and that is what those American unit commanders learned really fast. Hence, they fled--very little glory in being evaporated by Tornado's salvo or being blown to smithereens by 152-mm shell or 3M14 Kalibr.
Remember a pathetic piece by WSJ in 2017 titled...
The New Cold War Pits a U.S. General Against His Longtime Russian Nemesis. It’s Trump’s national security adviser H.R. McMaster vs. Putin ally Valery Gerasimov
Apart from obvious gross mismatch in rank, command, responsibilities and accomplishments--Gerasimov's level is a level of the Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Of Staff--one is forced to ask the question: and what are those "military thinking" accomplishments of McMaster per him being a Director, Concept Development and Experimentation? Almost ten years passed from the moment of McMaster's involvement with US doctrine. And what are the results?
First, Larry makes an astute observation. It is a classic intel analyst observation.
Russia’s Lavrov rubbishes Ukraine peace plan and warns conflict will be resolved on battlefield
... for both sides. In Russian. But Marat gives excellent spread, including operationally. He also confirms what I speak about for months now--Russia gives primarily KIA numbers for VSU. So read it--it is extremely important.
It doesn't mean that such ratios are everywhere, NO! But what Marat indicated yesterday (in Russian) just in the sector of one of his native "Slavyanka" Brigade's battalions a few days ago the assault by one of the VSU company-strength (I surmised) group was stopped with such ratio: VSU--30+ KIAs (this is how many corpses guys have been able to count), "Slavyanka"--3 wounded. Make you own conclusions. It seems like the slow collapse of the front is in progress, but Russia has no reasons to be in a hurry.
... sooner than we think. My friend Marat Khairullin gave yesterday a superb sitrep (sadly only in Russian):
But even these "conservative" estimates are terrifying. Here is butcher's bill for today from Russian MoD.
Although the video is a lame attempt at humor, the narrative/meme is not a joke. Many younger officers genuinely believe that we have Russia over a barrel and can take out Putin at will. It is one thing for the average guy or gal on the street to believe such nonsense, but it is terrifying to learn that many U.S. military officers, both junior and senior (including Flag Officers, i.e. Generals), are so deluded.
This is not surprising at all--average modern US Army company level officer, especially "taught" military history on the examples of Patton's "exploits" and the "yardstick" of turkey shoot in the Gulf, wouldn't take seriously nowadays the history of Operation Zitadel (started on July 5, 1943) 80 years ago and the scale of events US Army simply has no experience of dealing with. Yes, July 5-July 12, 1943--Zitadelle, after that--Kursk Offensive Operation.
... here is a REAL war correspondent, probably one of the best in profession in this century, Marat (my dear friend) explains what "keeping VSU in corridor" is and that VSU didn't even REACH the first line of defense--they are about... drum roll... 10 kilometers from it.
Against the news of Patriot being annihilated this should not also be forgotten.
This is how REAL air defense works. So, as was explained earlier, first two Storm Shadows which haven't been intercepted have been launched at civilian targets in Lugansk. Naturally, those targets haven't been defended by AD systems. US provides 24/7 intel to VSU, including electronic "map" which accounts for radar "picture" of Russian AD systems. In other words, the US provides intel on gaps in radar field. But even here they are primarily reduced to what amounts to attacks on civilian targets. As I already stated on many occasions, I will repeat again--the SMO will be, if not already, studied in all leading military academies as an example of how to fight modern war.
Now, here is my friend and REAL war correspondent Marat Khairulin (in Russian) explains why Gerasimov is an outstanding military leader and also explains how Mr. Prigozhin "fought".
But there is very little doubt that the US illegitimately occupies part of Syria's territory and conducts a favorite business of training terrorists.
I don't know who sent the "message", but this event is a great testament to a military fallacy of the American bases around the world, because not only they will continue to lose the "power projection" value but will continue to increase their value as fat and mostly indefensible targets against modern battlefield delivery systems. Nobody in their own mind would believe that US air defense systems such as Patriot PAC3 can handle a serious salvo of even relatively unsophisticated subsonic means of delivery.
Meanwhile butt-hurt BSer Sebastien Roblin "reports" based on propaganda doctored "data" from 404 that Russia... finally ran out of tanks and reactivated T-54/55 ones.
What uneducated hack Roblin doesn't know, because with degree in "conflict resolution" and "social and global studies" you can not know anything of value, is that Russia was using older T-54/55 since War in Chechnya not for tank operations but as a very helpful artillery units for... drum roll... block posts, thus increasing their combat stability and as a good caliber response in case of attacks on numerous block posts. Generally Western pseudo-academic fields in "strategic studies", "conflict resolution" or "foreign relations" produce unemployable office plankton with minimal skills even for 7/11 janitor, but when you are also getting paid by Ukies, what kind of "reporting" one provides becomes abundantly clear. In general, SMO exposed all, without exception, US MSM and popular "alternative" media as uneducated hacks and unprofessional losers, including a large portion of the US "military experts" with hefty C.V.s in "fighting" in Iraq and Afghanistan, but with minimal expertise in modern wars and combined arms operations of scale.
But that brings us to issue of military education in the US and the new crop of America's present and future military leaders. I wrote about it before and quoted Tim Bakken:
And this is one of very many testimonies of a collapse of professional military education in the US.
In related news, I spoke today with Vera and famous Russian REAL war reporter Marat Khairullin--the rough estimate of just wounded in and around Bakhmut is roughly 20,000. As Marat says, who spends most of his days at the front line and communicates with serious tactical and operational level officers, they all are unanimous--combat medicine in VSU ceased to exist several months ago, and just inside Bakhmut today there are more than 2,000 wounded who still cannot get even stabilization procedures. That means they will be dead in a day or two. Reality of the 404 "offensive" is absolutely not what is being portrayed by Western media. This is not from some shitty TG channels, this is from people of repute and first hand operational (forget tactical) knowledge of the combat zone. Yes, Marat is a constant presence, from the front lines, on Russian major TV networks. So, here is your SitRep of sorts for Friday.