Let's Try Q & A And Whatever Else Sticky Post

Here is the post which I will try to keep sticky for people to ask questions and share their thoughts which are not on topic. This, I think is known as Open Thread. Fire away.

One Of These Days... I Mean Friday.

No politics for today, just got back from a long drive (pleasant occasion, nothing is wrong), so...

 

In A Normal (Rational) World That Would Have Been...

Well.... fishy from the get go, not in the US where truth doesn't exists in and around Washington D.C. and around studios of the main propaganda outlets such as MSNBC, CBS, CNN--you know them all.  

WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House said Thursday that the intelligence community does not have conclusive evidence that Russian intelligence operatives encouraged the Taliban to attack American troops in Afghanistan. The assessment, revealed Thursday as the U.S. announced a host of new sanctions on the Russian government, undermines one of the sharpest attacks Joe Biden and other Democrats leveled against former President Donald Trump during the 2020 White House race. Biden repeatedly attacked Trump on the campaign trail for not standing up to Russian President Vladimir Putin despite his administration being aware of intelligence suggesting Russian agents were offering bounties to the Taliban. But on Thursday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that after a review of those classified reports, the intelligence community determined it had only “low to moderate confidence” in their authenticity. She said that was due in part to the ways in which the intelligence was obtained, including from interrogations of Afghan detainees.

Ahhh, no. It is not "low to moderate confidence", those reports promoted by DNC and Biden are a complete bunk because:

1. If Russia would want to really do a bloodletting in Afghanistan, she has a number of tools to do so ranging from clandestine ops against US troops to a direct supply of said Taliban (which is officially designated a terrorist organization in Russia) or other groups with all kinds of toys which would increase US casualties there. After all, all kinds of groups are dealing in weapons in Afghanistan today, many of those weapons from old storage bases in former Soviet Middle Asia. So, you get my drift. In other words, if Russia would want to inflict the pain, the US would feel it. The main question is: what for? Anyone has any rational reasons for Russia to do so? I don't.

2. Russia is, in fact, interested in the US staying in Afghanistan not only for the reasons of, granted current disastrous Russian-American relations' background, parading US war in there as an Exhibit A of how not to prosecute the war, but also because Russia is sincerely interested in the United States tying for now, granted grossly inefficiently, any fundamentalist Islamic forces which otherwise would start their moves Northward from Afghanistan to former Soviet Middle Asian republics, now independent states. In this sense the US and Russia are unlikely allies, granted US propensity to support all kinds of terrorists.

Now even Biden's own "intelligence" community effectively says that the whole story had the same veracity as that of Iraq's WMD program or of the Michael Bay movies being documentaries. Psaki's statement like this, however, puts things in a funny light:

Psaki added that U.S. intelligence has evidence that Russian military intelligence, known as the GRU, interacts with individuals in Afghan criminal networks.

Ahh, what about the US being in cahoots with people who massacred almost 3,000 innocent Americans on 9/11? Just saying. 

But, obviously, as US judiciary goes, it is Iran which committed 9/11, right?

Iran ordered to pay billions to relatives of 9/11 victims.

So, do you understand now why Vladimir Putin didn't accept Joe Biden's "invitation":

The Kremlin ... said the proposed summit “in a third country in the coming months” wouldn’t be possible to organize on such short notice, and declined to say whether Russia will accept Biden’s invitation to the virtual climate summit scheduled for next week.  

Why even bother? To talk about what, we omit now obvious who? The US ran itself into the military-diplomatic clusterfuck completely on own volition when trying to play chicken around Ukraine with very wrong people, then recalled that Russia has rather competent armed forces, and suddenly it is all about saving face, America's. Well, Russia's diplomacy is much older than the United States as a country and Russians fought enemies much tougher than America. I think, Kremlin's decision to avoid talking to Biden or, rather, those who control him, is a solid decision and the ensuing tawdry political show in D.C. and Brussels is fun to observe. As for new sanctions imposed on Russia, as I referred to famous Russian rare-earth element called boltium few years ago, you all may refresh description of this really rare element of Periodic Table here, how Russian element boltium interacts with another element, known in the West--sanctionium (in Russian), wink, wink. This was three years ago, since then boltium, for some reason, increased its corrosive action on sanctionium and many still cannot understand why.

So, let Biden's Administration work hard on "deescalation and diplomatic process" with Russia. I am sure they are hard at work now and are desperately trying to count days before Russia finishes with her military exercise at her Western Border and will allow the US to claim a diplomatic success with "dissolving" the situation. Sure. Meanwhile, are there ANY competent people inside the Beltway left, not poisoned by a dangerous rare-earth element which exists only inside the Beltway--sanctimonium? Just wondering. 

About Saving Face.

Alexander Mercouris gives a good explanation on the diplomatic situation around Ukraine and as I say and write for years: before any diplomatic moves always look at the military capabilities of the parties to this activity. 

As for NATO's build-up, it is merely a long-planned Defender-Europe 21 exercise whose timeline may have contributed to the Ukrainian stupidly with its own "build-up" and provocations, to make it look like a coordinated "effort". I can totally see those imbeciles in Kiev doing this and thinking themselves to be crafty. As Alexander correctly states, Russia, while having no desire to go all the way, especially having to take care of that shithole of a country which will fall into Russia's lap as a war trophy in case of real war, is ready for any contingency and that is the message, evidently, the West finally got. 

West, being culturally and politically superficial, is, obviously, all about the face and projecting outward of all kinds of pathlogies as a norm, so the projection of utter incompetence of its diplomacy and strategic planning is OK, in West's mind. Exposing that it is a domain filled amateurs and morons is not, even they understand that--they don't like to look weak and incompetent, despite these two being their defining traits. For the students of late Zbiginew Brzezinski pseudo-scientific geopolitical fantasies it took "merely" 20 years to figure out that Russia wants to be left alone but if need be, she will enforce this regime for herself. I am sure such a realization created a cultural shock when Brussels and D.C. started to suspect that Russia doesn't "want" Ukraine. What Russia wants is for this country to rot and implode without excrement from this implosion hitting Russia. West's paying for the clean up of this clusterfuck is also in Russian plans for Ukrainian Bantustan. 

It is a shocking development and revelation for the West since Brzezinski's geopolitical Bible revealed that Russia wants an empire and that such an empire is impossible without Ukraine. In fact, it was separation from Ukraine, and other freeloading former Soviet republics, which spurred Russia's revival. But then again....ahem. The "gas station masquerading as a country" with economy "left in tatters" and being "smaller than the economy of Spain". You all know the routine. But while at it:

The upward revision for Russia came as the IMF revealed a more optimistic forecast for the global economy amid vaccine rollouts. The fund now expects it to expand by 6% in 2021. The fund said that Russia’s fiscal policy was countercyclical in 2020. It also revised the figures for the crisis year, when Russia, like most countries, implemented lockdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. According to its latest estimates, the Russian economy shrank 3.1%, not the previously reported 3.6%. “There will be some degree of consolidation in 2021 in line with economic recovery, and the deficit is likely to come back to the fiscal rule’s limit in 2022,” the IMF said.... The IMF improved projections for the Russian economy shortly after the World Bank did the same. However, the World Bank is less optimistic, projecting the country’s GDP to grow by 3.3% this year and 3.4% next year.

Well, just to give some comparison. Europe's "economic locomotive", Germany that is, sees the 28th month in a row of Germany's real economy (industrial processing and production) shrinking. That gives one a bit of insight into Russia's rather cool attitude to economic ties to Europe in a sense of seeing a rather grim mid to long-term picture of Europe's economy. So, here is the deal for today. 

A Superb Dedication To Gagarin...

From Whiskey and Gunpowder. A must read tribute by great American mind to Yuri Gagarin and the first step for humanity into space.  

                       The First Starman

Today, we’ll discuss something that happened 60 years ago — April 1961 — that changed the world; indeed, it changed the world and outer space beyond. We still live with the impact of this event.

In related news, Biden calls "killer Putin" and offers to hold a summit to discuss you know...that thing(c), whatever that is. Putin should be very cautious when meeting good ol' (literally) Joe, since if Biden, God forbids, dies, Putin will be blamed because he is, you know, a killer.

WASHINGTON/MOSCOW (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden called on Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to reduce tensions stirred by a Russian military build-up on Ukraine's border and proposed a summit of the estranged leaders to tackle a raft of disputes. The White House and the Kremlin reported only the second conversation between the two since Biden took office in January, after Western officials urged Moscow to end the build-up and Russia, in words recalling the Cold War, said its "adversary" should keep U.S. warships well away from the Crimea region.

I mean, it is a good development, no doubt about it, it is better to talk than fight, plus Russia is really leaving West for good, after Lavrov's confirmation in his interview to Iranian IRNA yesterday (in Russian) that Russia basically is ready to discard Western pay systems such as Visa and Mastercard and, of course, insulating Russia from other sanction risks from the US and EU. Obviously, the course on the dedollarization was also reiterated. Now Biden, or rather those who control him, suddenly want "stable and predictable relations with Russia". Dudes, supporting a Nazi shithole like Ukraine and calling the President of a superpower "a killer" is a very wrong way of going about it. Again, Russia's departure from the West cannot be stopped any more and for that US "diplomacy" and "intelligence", or whatever passes in the US for these, otherwise respectable and real professionals'-oriented, occupations are responsible together with a cesspool of lowlifes known in the US as main stream media. You get what you paid for, folks.

This Father Is... Cool.

For many people this looks like something really...out there. But it is not. I wrote many times, the creek will turn into the river, inevitably. 

Russia is just the country, which also knows that it is an...arc.

Some Issues Of Numbers.

I wrote yesterday a piece exclusively for Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) where I address some issues re: the salvo of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in case NATO decides to "fight". I don't think that this scenario is likely but just in case, here are some conclusions by me:

...there is plenty of subsonic, supersonic and hypersonic goodness to spread around by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet alone and competent people in Pentagon know this. That is why the appearance of those two US destroyers in the Black Sea is, literally, for the appearance primarily and for trying to collect some intel for what seems today a diminishing probability of confrontation in Donbass. I often write that many people in the US, and I am talking about policy-makers, cannot grasp the scale of the America’s trailing Russia in fire power in all domains. It is not just quantitative; it is qualitative and the gap only continues to widen. But I warned about it for years, didn’t I?

Andrei Raevsky titled (correctly) my piece: Why It Is Not Advised. It is a symptomatic title since today, as if he read my books amd recent writings, Colonel Douglas Macgregor penned a piece for The American Conservative which has a title: Facing the Facts of War with Russia. The Biden administration appears willing to get us into a fight we’re not ready for. I was calling on the US political elites to face the facts for many years now. Now American senior officer, a real professional, with reputation for realistic view of the world outside writes today:

If Russian military power prevails, President Biden’s promise of support means U.S. or Allied NATO air or ground forces may intervene to rescue the Ukrainians from defeat. In Europe, U.S. Army and Marine ground forces are too weak to intervene 500 miles east of the Polish border, even if reinforced in a timely manner by armored brigades. None of NATO’s ground forces are ready to cope with Russia’s BM-30 SMERCH Rocket Artillery Formations. Rockets fired from just five of Russia’s BM-30 SMERCH rocket launchers can devastate an area the size of New York City’s Central Park (843 acres, or 3.2 square miles) in minutes. Thus, if U.S. and allied forces do intervene, they are likely to do so with air assets. How effective Russian integrated air defenses will be is unknown, but it would be ill-advised to underestimate the impact of Russian IADs with phased array radars. Some of the newest air defense systems—like the Russian S-500—are so capable that many U.S. Defense officials privately worry that even warplanes like the F-22, F-35, and the B-2 risk destruction if they attempt to penetrate them.

Macgregor makes one small mistake though. Russia does not need S-500 to close off the skies over Ukraine. The line of modern S-series AD complexes, ranging from S-400 of AD forces to S-300V series of army specific (troops) AD and down to Buk-M3 and Tor-M2--are all integrated into flexible and well-protected network which has NO problem detecting, tracking and shooting down any target, be that small UAV or the most stealthiest aircraft or missile. Plus, of course, if shit hits the fan, Russian Air Force has enough assets to challenge any US air assets, the ones which will survive strikes at air field and bases. 

But this is not what really is important in Macgregor's piece, most important is his corroboration of what I am writing and warning non-stop: the US is nuclear-biased and will initiate nuclear exchange because what is expecting US troops in case of the United States directly intervening into a possible conflict in Ukraine, is the level of human and materiel losses US Armed Forces never experienced in their history. Macgregor, essentially, agrees:

Since prevailing winds in Eastern Europe would spread nuclear fallout across Russia and Central Asia all the way to Korea, the Russian use of nuclear weapons is very unlikely—unless of course, U.S. forces use so-called “tactical nuclear weapons,” which would trigger Russian escalation to the strategic nuclear level with ominous consequences for planet Earth. However, virtually all U.S. and allied military installations, from Estonia to Spain, will be within range of Russian Kalibr Cruise Missiles carrying 1,000 pound, high explosive, conventional warheads.

As I am on record constantly--the United States never fought a war with its Command and Control system under the relentless sustained fire impact and its rear attacked and disorganized. Conventionally, the United States cannot win against Russia in Europe, at least Eastern part of it and Biden Admin better wake up to the reality that it may, indeed, not survive any kind of escalation and, in fact, modern Kalibrs, 3M14Ms, as a matter of fact, have a range of a 4,500 kilometers, as well as 5,000+ kilometer range of X-101 cruise missiles, which will have no issues with penetrating North American airspace when launched by Russia's strategic bombers without even leaving the safety of Russia's airspace.

It is good that Douglas Macgregor goes on record in this case and underscores the fact that Russia can and will, God forbids it comes to this, win conventionally, while the United States loses even in a nuclear conflict. But then again, in this case we all lose. Conveying this reality that the US has no good options against Russia is very important, especially to those people in current admin who have no clue about modern war and how it is fought--and that is the overwhelming majority of the US elites. I don't want to end up being prophetic about the events which I am desperately trying to prevent. Having opinion of such a heavyweight as Douglas Macgregor being very similar to mine helps enormously. 

In related news, Ukrainian clown worries:

A spokesperson for Ukraine’s president say's they've been trying to talk to Russia’s Vladimir Putin about the build-up of Russian troops on the border, but Putin isn't taking the call.

Poor, poor baby. He ain't seen nothing yet. When Russia begins a real build-up of Russian troops, he better be sure he has his jet fueled and ready to go in Borispol airport in Kiev. But this is just in case if he obliges and carries out his orders from his handlers in Washington. He still thinks that the United States is this "the finest fighting force in history", well, he may learn soon enough the real situation if he is not cautious. As Peskov today responded to Blinken's threats about "consequences" (in Russian) almost in Fulbright's manner, that constant threatening with consequences and "paying a price" completely devalues those threats. Recall:

“It is simply not necessary for us to go around forever proclaiming: ‘I am the greatest!’ The more one does this sort of thing, in fact, the more people doubt it….” 

The United States simply exceeded a bragging limit. 

P.S. Today is 60th Anniversary since this guy and those backward Russian peasants launched first human in space. 

I am sure in woke America this will be viewed as "white privilege" and as being very racist.