Reminiscence of the Future...
Si Vis Pacem, Para Vino © Andrei Martyanov's Blog
Saturday, January 1, 2022
Let's Try Q & A And Whatever Else Sticky Post
Friday, April 16, 2021
One Of These Days... I Mean Friday.
No politics for today, just got back from a long drive (pleasant occasion, nothing is wrong), so...
Thursday, April 15, 2021
In A Normal (Rational) World That Would Have Been...
Well.... fishy from the get go, not in the US where truth doesn't exists in and around Washington D.C. and around studios of the main propaganda outlets such as MSNBC, CBS, CNN--you know them all.
Ahhh, no. It is not "low to moderate confidence", those reports promoted by DNC and Biden are a complete bunk because:
1. If Russia would want to really do a bloodletting in Afghanistan, she has a number of tools to do so ranging from clandestine ops against US troops to a direct supply of said Taliban (which is officially designated a terrorist organization in Russia) or other groups with all kinds of toys which would increase US casualties there. After all, all kinds of groups are dealing in weapons in Afghanistan today, many of those weapons from old storage bases in former Soviet Middle Asia. So, you get my drift. In other words, if Russia would want to inflict the pain, the US would feel it. The main question is: what for? Anyone has any rational reasons for Russia to do so? I don't.
2. Russia is, in fact, interested in the US staying in Afghanistan not only for the reasons of, granted current disastrous Russian-American relations' background, parading US war in there as an Exhibit A of how not to prosecute the war, but also because Russia is sincerely interested in the United States tying for now, granted grossly inefficiently, any fundamentalist Islamic forces which otherwise would start their moves Northward from Afghanistan to former Soviet Middle Asian republics, now independent states. In this sense the US and Russia are unlikely allies, granted US propensity to support all kinds of terrorists.
Now even Biden's own "intelligence" community effectively says that the whole story had the same veracity as that of Iraq's WMD program or of the Michael Bay movies being documentaries. Psaki's statement like this, however, puts things in a funny light:
Psaki added that U.S. intelligence has evidence that Russian military intelligence, known as the GRU, interacts with individuals in Afghan criminal networks.
Ahh, what about the US being in cahoots with people who massacred almost 3,000 innocent Americans on 9/11? Just saying.
But, obviously, as US judiciary goes, it is Iran which committed 9/11, right?
Iran ordered to pay billions to relatives of 9/11 victims.
So, do you understand now why Vladimir Putin didn't accept Joe Biden's "invitation":
Why even bother? To talk about what, we omit now obvious who? The US ran itself into the military-diplomatic clusterfuck completely on own volition when trying to play chicken around Ukraine with very wrong people, then recalled that Russia has rather competent armed forces, and suddenly it is all about saving face, America's. Well, Russia's diplomacy is much older than the United States as a country and Russians fought enemies much tougher than America. I think, Kremlin's decision to avoid talking to Biden or, rather, those who control him, is a solid decision and the ensuing tawdry political show in D.C. and Brussels is fun to observe. As for new sanctions imposed on Russia, as I referred to famous Russian rare-earth element called boltium few years ago, you all may refresh description of this really rare element of Periodic Table here, how Russian element boltium interacts with another element, known in the West--sanctionium (in Russian), wink, wink. This was three years ago, since then boltium, for some reason, increased its corrosive action on sanctionium and many still cannot understand why.
So, let Biden's Administration work hard on "deescalation and diplomatic process" with Russia. I am sure they are hard at work now and are desperately trying to count days before Russia finishes with her military exercise at her Western Border and will allow the US to claim a diplomatic success with "dissolving" the situation. Sure. Meanwhile, are there ANY competent people inside the Beltway left, not poisoned by a dangerous rare-earth element which exists only inside the Beltway--sanctimonium? Just wondering.
Wednesday, April 14, 2021
About Saving Face.
Alexander Mercouris gives a good explanation on the diplomatic situation around Ukraine and as I say and write for years: before any diplomatic moves always look at the military capabilities of the parties to this activity.
West, being culturally and politically superficial, is, obviously, all about the face and projecting outward of all kinds of pathlogies as a norm, so the projection of utter incompetence of its diplomacy and strategic planning is OK, in West's mind. Exposing that it is a domain filled amateurs and morons is not, even they understand that--they don't like to look weak and incompetent, despite these two being their defining traits. For the students of late Zbiginew Brzezinski pseudo-scientific geopolitical fantasies it took "merely" 20 years to figure out that Russia wants to be left alone but if need be, she will enforce this regime for herself. I am sure such a realization created a cultural shock when Brussels and D.C. started to suspect that Russia doesn't "want" Ukraine. What Russia wants is for this country to rot and implode without excrement from this implosion hitting Russia. West's paying for the clean up of this clusterfuck is also in Russian plans for Ukrainian Bantustan.
It is a shocking development and revelation for the West since Brzezinski's geopolitical Bible revealed that Russia wants an empire and that such an empire is impossible without Ukraine. In fact, it was separation from Ukraine, and other freeloading former Soviet republics, which spurred Russia's revival. But then again....ahem. The "gas station masquerading as a country" with economy "left in tatters" and being "smaller than the economy of Spain". You all know the routine. But while at it:
Well, just to give some comparison. Europe's "economic locomotive", Germany that is, sees the 28th month in a row of Germany's real economy (industrial processing and production) shrinking. That gives one a bit of insight into Russia's rather cool attitude to economic ties to Europe in a sense of seeing a rather grim mid to long-term picture of Europe's economy. So, here is the deal for today.
Tuesday, April 13, 2021
A Superb Dedication To Gagarin...
From Whiskey and Gunpowder. A must read tribute by great American mind to Yuri Gagarin and the first step for humanity into space.
The First Starman
In related news, Biden calls "killer Putin" and offers to hold a summit to discuss you know...that thing(c), whatever that is. Putin should be very cautious when meeting good ol' (literally) Joe, since if Biden, God forbids, dies, Putin will be blamed because he is, you know, a killer.
I mean, it is a good development, no doubt about it, it is better to talk than fight, plus Russia is really leaving West for good, after Lavrov's confirmation in his interview to Iranian IRNA yesterday (in Russian) that Russia basically is ready to discard Western pay systems such as Visa and Mastercard and, of course, insulating Russia from other sanction risks from the US and EU. Obviously, the course on the dedollarization was also reiterated. Now Biden, or rather those who control him, suddenly want "stable and predictable relations with Russia". Dudes, supporting a Nazi shithole like Ukraine and calling the President of a superpower "a killer" is a very wrong way of going about it. Again, Russia's departure from the West cannot be stopped any more and for that US "diplomacy" and "intelligence", or whatever passes in the US for these, otherwise respectable and real professionals'-oriented, occupations are responsible together with a cesspool of lowlifes known in the US as main stream media. You get what you paid for, folks.
Monday, April 12, 2021
This Father Is... Cool.
For many people this looks like something really...out there. But it is not. I wrote many times, the creek will turn into the river, inevitably.
Some Issues Of Numbers.
I wrote yesterday a piece exclusively for Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) where I address some issues re: the salvo of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in case NATO decides to "fight". I don't think that this scenario is likely but just in case, here are some conclusions by me:
Andrei Raevsky titled (correctly) my piece: Why It Is Not Advised. It is a symptomatic title since today, as if he read my books amd recent writings, Colonel Douglas Macgregor penned a piece for The American Conservative which has a title: Facing the Facts of War with Russia. The Biden administration appears willing to get us into a fight we’re not ready for. I was calling on the US political elites to face the facts for many years now. Now American senior officer, a real professional, with reputation for realistic view of the world outside writes today:
Macgregor makes one small mistake though. Russia does not need S-500 to close off the skies over Ukraine. The line of modern S-series AD complexes, ranging from S-400 of AD forces to S-300V series of army specific (troops) AD and down to Buk-M3 and Tor-M2--are all integrated into flexible and well-protected network which has NO problem detecting, tracking and shooting down any target, be that small UAV or the most stealthiest aircraft or missile. Plus, of course, if shit hits the fan, Russian Air Force has enough assets to challenge any US air assets, the ones which will survive strikes at air field and bases.
But this is not what really is important in Macgregor's piece, most important is his corroboration of what I am writing and warning non-stop: the US is nuclear-biased and will initiate nuclear exchange because what is expecting US troops in case of the United States directly intervening into a possible conflict in Ukraine, is the level of human and materiel losses US Armed Forces never experienced in their history. Macgregor, essentially, agrees:
Since prevailing winds in Eastern Europe would spread nuclear fallout across Russia and Central Asia all the way to Korea, the Russian use of nuclear weapons is very unlikely—unless of course, U.S. forces use so-called “tactical nuclear weapons,” which would trigger Russian escalation to the strategic nuclear level with ominous consequences for planet Earth. However, virtually all U.S. and allied military installations, from Estonia to Spain, will be within range of Russian Kalibr Cruise Missiles carrying 1,000 pound, high explosive, conventional warheads.
As I am on record constantly--the United States never fought a war with its Command and Control system under the relentless sustained fire impact and its rear attacked and disorganized. Conventionally, the United States cannot win against Russia in Europe, at least Eastern part of it and Biden Admin better wake up to the reality that it may, indeed, not survive any kind of escalation and, in fact, modern Kalibrs, 3M14Ms, as a matter of fact, have a range of a 4,500 kilometers, as well as 5,000+ kilometer range of X-101 cruise missiles, which will have no issues with penetrating North American airspace when launched by Russia's strategic bombers without even leaving the safety of Russia's airspace.
It is good that Douglas Macgregor goes on record in this case and underscores the fact that Russia can and will, God forbids it comes to this, win conventionally, while the United States loses even in a nuclear conflict. But then again, in this case we all lose. Conveying this reality that the US has no good options against Russia is very important, especially to those people in current admin who have no clue about modern war and how it is fought--and that is the overwhelming majority of the US elites. I don't want to end up being prophetic about the events which I am desperately trying to prevent. Having opinion of such a heavyweight as Douglas Macgregor being very similar to mine helps enormously.
In related news, Ukrainian clown worries:
Poor, poor baby. He ain't seen nothing yet. When Russia begins a real build-up of Russian troops, he better be sure he has his jet fueled and ready to go in Borispol airport in Kiev. But this is just in case if he obliges and carries out his orders from his handlers in Washington. He still thinks that the United States is this "the finest fighting force in history", well, he may learn soon enough the real situation if he is not cautious. As Peskov today responded to Blinken's threats about "consequences" (in Russian) almost in Fulbright's manner, that constant threatening with consequences and "paying a price" completely devalues those threats. Recall:
“It is simply not necessary for us to go around forever proclaiming: ‘I am the greatest!’ The more one does this sort of thing, in fact, the more people doubt it….”
The United States simply exceeded a bragging limit.
P.S. Today is 60th Anniversary since this guy and those backward Russian peasants launched first human in space.
I am sure in woke America this will be viewed as "white privilege" and as being very racist.