... cannot find the emotional balance. Here is a simpler demonstration of what global power balance is and how it is formed--I will be making a video about it (with Syria's slant, of course) tomorrow:
Monday, December 9, 2024
Little By Little...
... new details emerge how Assad, for all his failures, was basically sabotaged by the hodgepodge power elite with Alawites at its core, who loved their privileges and big stars of useless generals. And, allegedly, declined power sharing proposal. Russian ships moved about about 4 nautical miles to the sea and are anchored there waiting for dust to settle--it is about the range of the longest ATGMs, that's why such distance, after that they will come back and negotiations about Russian bases will start. As Vladimir Putin said in 2015--"We cannot be more Syrian than Syrians themselves". Per SAA--my description of SAA are being confirmed hourly--a demoralized force since 2015 with low combat value and corrupt generals. The only combat worthy formation of SAA "Tiger" Brigade originated as the private military unit. It got incorporated into SAA. And once those factors begin to be considered--the hysterical reaction of emotional wrecks to all this becomes utterly unreasonable. Meanwhile HTS already stated that it will defend Russian bases and is ready to negotiate on them. Geopolitics is a business of grown-ups who pursue the interests of their OWN people. And before I declare this threat and Open one, I want to reiterate what I spoke about in this blog since 2015--Russia was not in Syria to defend Syrian political system, this was at best a secondary consideration. Iran got hurt, though.
Sunday, December 8, 2024
Meanwhile.
Iranian Air Force Yak-130 with R-73 under the wing.
R-73M is a short range air-to-air missile with IR homing and the range of 40 kilometers. It is essentially a dog-fight missile but also can be used against ground targets. But that's not all. In major news which are ignored (for now) is yet another egg on the face for media, this time Russian, which reported that nuclear cruiser Admiral Nakhimov will not go to sea-trials this year... well, it just did degaussing and went to sea. The plant (shipyard) and then state sea trials start. Fully modernized Nakhimov carries 80 anti-ship and ground attack missiles. Many of them 3M22 Zircon.
What You Need To Know.
About the genesis of Syria's fall. And Arab militaries. Sunnis want Sharia and nothing could be done about it. But that also will ensure them staying backward and poor. Most Arab generals upon receiving their stars should immediately wear the sticker--their price. The pattern has been confirmed.
Soviet Military Adviser...
Colonel Anatoly Sergievsky about Arab militaries. In Russian. This is the start of the article--follow the link. And here is conclusion (in Russian).
Translation: Nothing was known about the actual situation at the front for days. For example, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad learned about the flight of the 7th Infantry Division from the front only from Soviet advisers. The introduction of the 1st Tank Division into battle on October 7 took place without any leadership from the Syrian high command. A similar situation occurred during the counterattack of the Iraqi-Jordanian troops on October 16. Command and control was also poorly organized at the troop level. Command posts were located at a great distance from the front line: battalions - up to 6 km, brigades - 8-10 km, divisions - up to 20 km. With the beginning of the offensive, the division and brigade commanders remained at their protected command posts. No senior commanders observed the battlefield or the actions of the troops. In many cases, radio communications were not used by commanders and headquarters due to radiophobia or were abandoned on the battlefield. In the division-battalion link, the command staff, not knowing the situation, simply walked away from their radio stations in order to avoid an unpleasant conversation with their superior commanders. In the 1st TD, the division commander, allegedly for the purpose of radio camouflage, banned radio communications altogether. During the battles, there were many cases of non-compliance on the part of officers. Some brigade commanders, under various pretexts, refused to carry out tasks at all (the commander of the 50th MBR), and arbitrarily made decisions to retreat, without reporting this to anyone or informing their neighbors.
See the pattern? 1973, 2024--nothing changed and it cannot be changed.
Assad and Family Are in Moscow.
Moscow confirms.
Бывший президент Сирии Башар Асад вместе с семьей находится в Москве, где ему предоставлено убежище по гуманитарным соображениям, сообщил источник в Кремле.
Translation: Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family are in Moscow, where he has been granted asylum for humanitarian reasons, a Kremlin source said.
For Those Who "Grieve".
I don't like Alexandr Kotz in a slightest--I know how he covered SMO--but when the man is right, he is right. It is in Russian (Google Translate will help).
Translation: I do not feel sorry for the Syrian authorities. I remember too well how, back in 2012, we, Russian journalists, were “squeezed” at border control, with all our luggage turned inside out, and our cameras and photo cameras confiscated. Then they hounded us around the offices of various ministries, putting us through an unsolvable puzzle of obtaining various papers and permits. And Western reporters were practically carried around in their arms, trying to demonstrate their liberal views against the backdrop of the uprising in Daraa. These are not my personal grievances. This, among other things, was an expression of their attitude towards my country. Condescending, with rolled eyes and a disdainfully raised upper lip. Then we saved Syria in 2013, if anyone doesn’t remember. Obama was going to cover it with carpet bombing after the chemical provocation in Eastern Ghouta. And thanks to the efforts of Russian diplomacy, the catastrophe was averted. Postponed, as it turns out now. In 2015, we came to Assad's aid again when the terrorists were five kilometers from the center of Damascus. And as best we could, we patched up this patchwork quilt, consisting of various religious, social, forbidden and not so forbidden pieces, between which contradictions grew. The respect that had appeared in the eyes of the "Sadiks" rolled back, if not to disgust, then to the forced patience of the inevitable. Like a cough with Covid.
Pay attention to how he describes SAA generals bestowing themselves with new stars and privileges for the victory which was won by Russians and Iranians primarily. Make your own conclusions, those who still retain a modicum of a common sense. Arab military, yet again, performed what is expected of them--decomposed and ran. I speak about it in my today's video.
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