Monday, December 31, 2018

You Can Read Me Now In US Naval Institute Blog.

Russian Navy, Mission Found?

You may read my new piece on some doctrine-technology issues in today's USNI Blog post. Link is below. 

Let's Try Q & A And Whatever Else Sticky Post

Here is the post which I will try to keep sticky for people to ask questions and share their thoughts which are not on topic. This, I think is known as Open Thread. Fire away.

You May Read Me on Unz Review Too.

1. I got my first piece published on Unz Review today, so you may check it out there

2. You can read my piece on some peculiarities of Russo-Chinese "alliance" at Unz Review. Here:

The Russo-Chinese "Alliance" Explained 

3. Here is the latest One. 

Russia's Stand-Off Capability: The 800 Pound Gorilla in Syria

4. On INF Treaty.   

 The Sand Castle INF Treaty

5. New piece on geopolitics and navalism.

The Russo-Chinese "Alliance" Revisited  

6. My new piece on Putin's speech came out today at Unz Review. 

The Implications of Russia's New Weapon Systems

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

On A Lighter Note.

I couldn't miss that. 

 Judge appears likely to toss Stormy Daniels' defamation suit.

I am not going to lie, I honestly told my wife of almost 35 years that I need to "research" Stormy Daniels' "art".  So, after "researching" it, the question is--defame what? I understand that democrats are desperate to completely destroy what's left of American Republic and impeach Trump while cowardly GOP, as always, is looking for a better deal for themselves and 1 percenters. But it takes an enormous imagination to view the claims of a porn "actress" (yes, they "act", alright) about defamation as valid. Poor Stormy, I guess her reputation suffered and now she is being viewed as... a porn star? Didn't she learn what comes with the territory when one becomes a porn "star"? 

That doesn't stop here, in another first in an increasingly filthy American political circus, Vogue Magazine gave a photo-shoot to this fine representative of "acting profession" (not that Hollywood royalty is much better, they are simply more elite prostitutes). And while on its own terms this whole thing is hilarious, in a black comedy sort of way, one is forced, after all laughter subsides, to ask question--do they even understand what they are doing to the country. I said not for once, nowadays terms democracy and the United States are simply not compatible anymore and shouldn't be used in the same sentence, but for goodness sake, can one at least produce adequate, forget competent, forget patriotic or at least believably decent, oligarchy? Can we get, goddammit, at least competent shysters, who at the very least get what is good for them?  Both Democrats and Republicans are directly responsible for the mayhem they produced. Democrats, because these are their "operatives" who completely corrupted and paralyzed every single power institution in the US. Republicans? Well, as I stated, because they are cowards with no principles. Both parties (in reality it is a single party now) are power hungry and care only about themselves and their donors. 

While primarily, "progressive" media are ready to promote any filth as a valid "argument" in them trying to destroy last vestiges of law and order in the US, I, being ethnically and culturally Russian, can totally understand pure-bred Americans whose fists are already clenched and glances increasingly become cold. Here is another dumb bimbo who earns money by pretending to be somebody else and who is into "remaking things" while her limousine waits for her to deliver her to gated community to maybe continue with her "self-education", which she, obviously, lacks greatly. As, in general, it is applicable to most of Hollywood. So, in this case I see very little difference between Stormy Daniels as an "actress" and  American progressive artsy strata as valid political activists--both fuck people for the money. 

P.S. Didn't come out "light", didn't it? 

So It Is S-300PMU2 Favorit.

If to believe Izvestya's (in Russian) sources in MoD, Syria is getting full regiment (two divizions--not to be mistaken with division) of S-300 with all bells and whistles, including with the latest missiles, capable of working against aerial target on the ranges of up to 250 kilometers.  Each divizion is 12 launchers with 4 missiles in each. The mathematics is simple: 2 divizions x 12 launchers x 4 missiles = 96 missiles. The latest most capable EW means are already delivered to Syria--that explains a furious activity of military-transport aviation around Khmeimim couple of days ago. If S-300 is delivered, as it was stated, from storage--that means it is not an export version. 

Hasbara trolls and all kinds of Israel's military "experts" are out in force and bravado continues, but it is very characteristic of the area with its, be that Arab or Jewish, culture of showing off and pretending to be what they are not. Will Israel try to prevent deployment of the S-300? Possible. In a bizarre statement today Israel's government vowed to continue fighting Iran in Syria, while maintaining close coordination with Russian forces (in Russian). Sure, but all coastal Syria is now off the limits plus some part of S-300 will be deployed somewhere around Damascus. That has some (limited) implications for Lebanon, with its complex terrain, but in general it is absolutely clear that heavy "artillery" has arrived and there will be now a very real full integration of all AD means in Syria into cooperative engagement network. 

Israel could have avoided this by merely sticking to gentlemanly agreement with Russia, but Israeli arrogance, recklessness and, I may add, stupidity in some higher military-political echelons brought about the imposition of no-fly zone and I can only imagine what AIPAC and Israel's operatives are doing now in D.C. They are hysterical and draft dodger in chief John Bolton already expressed his "opinion" yesterday, not that anybody in Moscow gives a damn what this bureaucrat has to say. One has to reap what is sown. Or, as they say in Russia--you sow the wind, you reap the hurricane.  

Monday, September 24, 2018

Fast Thoughts On The Issue Of Projection (and Learning). A Bit of a Rant.

I would have loved to write articles on geoeconomics and some geopolitics, discuss some industries and write about culture, in the end--writing sophomoric prose on jazz fusion and progressive rock would have been wonderful. I was forced, literally, by circumstances to recall (yes, like in Total Recall) my past life and start writing... well, see the very beginning of this blog. Each time I want to concentrate on some large, important matter, I find myself explaining pretty basic things, such as this tragedy with Russian IL-20. 

Here is one thing which people should understand about me--I don't know everything. What I do have, however, is the ability (this comes with the territory for most former military professionals) to single out immediately a real professional. Not just with the military rank (after all, Colonel of Medical Service doesn't know how weapon systems integrate or how to calculate probability of a leaker) but with actual technological, tactical and operational background. I can single (recognize) these people out most of the time. So, my advantage here is that I am "jamming resistant" (that is to say BS-resistant) to a certain degree. But even I have my limits intellectually and emotionally in my attempts to bridge the gap between Western (and American) and Russian understanding of things. That is why I have to state this:

American political reality and decision making processes DO NOT correlate with the same in Russia. As this latest event with IL-20 has shown, projecting American, or generally Western, experiences onto Russian geopolitical and military reality is useless. It only confuses people, many of them honest and decent people, others simply deranged, who must keep in mind Sir Bernard Pares' almost 90 years old truism about Russia, if those people want to understand:

"And knowledge alone is not enough without understanding, which is much more hardly won. To no country does this apply more than to Russia....This gap has to be filled, or will it cost us dear."

And that is why sometimes I get frustrated when totality of facts still fails to create a reliable whole picture for so many. No greater gap exists between American patriots who, understanding the baneful effect of pro-Israeli NGOs on the formulation of the US domestic and, especially, foreign policies fail to recognize that:

1. Same doesn't apply to Russia (never did);
2. Modern Russian history (20th century on) was not formed by Jewish influences--they were merely few among a myriad of other complex geopolitical, cultural and economic factors which brought Russia to a catastrophic "reset" in 1917--first through open palace coup by Russian liberals (February) and then Civil War when in October, Bolsheviks literally picked the power from the ground--nobody wanted it anymore by then. Many people still do not know that first Sovnarkom was overwhelmingly Slavic, many with nobility ranks and the only Jew who was present there was Leon Trotsky.

Only knowing, as in having the ability to see not just facts but reliable causality behind them, will one be able to see Russia in a proper light and understand her. Granted one also learns Russian language, reads massive Russian literature, especially 19th Century classics, travels to Russia often, talks to real people (not urbanite hipsters), and then, discarding pretty much anything (almost) what is taught about Russia in the Western universities, will one be able to start gaining this Pares' understanding. I write about this non-stop for almost five years now. Russians do not play for media-appearances when it comes to national security and war, they play for result--such is Russia's history. And no, there is no such "animal" in Russia as Christian Zionism, a purely Anglo thing, which in US provides a good breeding ground for American neoconservatism ideas and loyalty to Israel, as US Vice President Mike Pence so enthusiastically supported Israel at CUFI gathering in 2017. Particular military breed of American Old Testament Christianity doesn't help either. These things are completely alien to Russians, their country and their history and bar some unhinged Russian "patriots" (and ignoramuses), Russians do not blame Jews for GULAG, nor do they blame them for October 1917 Revolution. 

This fact that some arrangement between Jews and other people, other than it is set up in the United States, can exist is simply beyond the grasp of many in the US. And the nauseating tune continues to play non-stop. Jews control everything in Russia--no they don't, Putin bows to Jews--no he doesn't, Jews are responsible for millions (tens of millions, hundreds...) Russians killed in GULAG--no, they are not. There is no New York, and with it Brooklyn and Brighton Beach, in Russia, there is a 850 years old young Russian city of Moscow, there is a newbie (merely 315 years old) St. Petersburg, there is massive Russian culture which has some Jewish influences, but it is Russian culture, which also has Tatar, Caucasus (Rasul Gamzatov, anyone?), yes, Jewish--incomparable Yan Frenkel, Armenian--Arno Babajanyan, Azeri-Muslim Magomaev influences, and I can continue this list--all that was completely integrated in a larger Russia culture and remains there as an everyday given for most Russians. 

Russian culture, especially Russian culture of the 20th and 21st centuries is UNKNOWN in the West, bar some Hollywood caricatures and fairy tales (well, Bullshit) by Western court "dissidents" such as Solzhenitsyn or, today, whoever passes as Russian "expert" in whatever media sewage outlets they work for. And here is a thought: no, I am not going to rub into faces of many, who unleashed hysteria after IL-20's tragedy, the fact that what happened today (yesterday) with Russia delivering S-300 and more to Syria was predicted by me within first three-four hours of tragedy. No, I just want to say--stop projecting, Russia is NOT the United Sates and the way the process of the decision making is set up in Moscow is something US political system has no experiences with. No, Putin is not a hostage of Russian military--decision on Syria's air defense was made, most likely, within first minutes of reports on IL-20s loss. And no, calling for thorough investigation, for a bullet proof case, is evidently not in American media tradition anymore. But here is the main strategic trick:

Russia needs Israel, healthy, prosperous and reasonably well-protected but also reasonably well-behaved. Why it is so--is a long story but I totally agree with this Russian position. How all those complex ME issues will be resolved, well--the proof is in the pudding: many Arabs know that Kremlin doesn't hold AIPAC conferences in Moscow, nor there are Christian Zionists in Russia, unless, of course, they travel to Russia from the West. That in itself makes Russia a prefect arbiter in the ME and... but I will simply stop here for now. A scale of global realignment today is such, that many simply fail to comprehend that their, often justified, scores with Israel are but a small fish in the ocean of a great turbulence and it takes this Putin's wisdom and cool to guide Russia where she and the world needs to be. In the end, Russia consistently continues to be a cat.   

Well, Duh!

For anyone who expected anything less than that--it is time to get out of a bubble of fluffy rhetoric and pompous statements and get down to reality.  I hate to say "I told you so", but from the get go it was clear no matter what Israel does now, Russia had several options how to react. Well, she did by going through with her contractual 2013 obligations to Syria and she will supply S-300, modern EW means and, as one might have expected, those systems are fully capable for real integration into the network thus providing CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability). A no-fly zone is already established along the coast to some depth of Syria's territory and it is just the start of measures. 

Meanwhile hysteria that Putin sold Russia out to Israel and that Russia bowed to mighty Jerusalem (or Tel Aviv, what have you) will continue, as well as Israel's huffing and puffing. Israel was given for three years, on a gentleman's agreement with Russia, almost free hand when it was coming down to primarily Hezbollah and Iran's military activity in Syria. By entering the off limits safe zone of Russian forces Israel violated this agreement. It all resulted in IL-20 tragedy. This is not the way to conduct business with Russia and so the way has changed. 

Here is another thing which fort sure now will be transferred to Syrian Forces (wink, wink) and it will ensure that Russian and Syrian AD systems will be fully integrated. But, obviously, business as usual cannot continue and it will not. The rest is the matter for pundits and internet "experts" to interpret.