You Can Read Me Now In US Naval Institute Blog.

Russian Navy, Mission Found?

You may read my new piece on some doctrine-technology issues in today's USNI Blog post. Link is below. 

Aircraft Carriers’ Drama 

Let's Try Q & A And Whatever Else Sticky Post

Here is the post which I will try to keep sticky for people to ask questions and share their thoughts which are not on topic. This, I think is known as Open Thread. Fire away.

You May Read Me on Unz Review Too.

Here is the full list of articles by me at Unz Review. 

 

               Andrei Martyanov Archive at Unz. 

World Cup 2018.

I promised that I will be posting on this event. It was the best World Cup ever and the drama between Russians and Croatians in one of the most magnificent games ever played (yes, I remember semi-final between West Germany and France in 1982 and divine Scuadra Azzura (Juventus, wink, wink) and Enzo Bearzott from the same year, I also remember US national team of Bruce Arena robbed of semi-finals in 2002), but when you see Berlin (some of it Russian) going berserk from Russian national team, after Mario Fernandes' (the greatest Russian Brazilian who ever played the game) goal after Alan Dzagoev's serve, you have to adjust your bearings. 

I remember this 7 months ago and what happened to any Russian then:

And then Berlin going like this. Football is more important than politics, it is more important than war--it is life itself. Here is Berlin that day. 

Madness, that is how we like it. 

Ah, it is Friday, I forgot, let Natalia Oreiro take it from here:

I will, at some point of time, write about incredible US national team at WC 2002.  

We Have Been Through This Before, Haven't We?

Last time, the US got lucky that Soviet Union had a person at its helm who was hell bent on destroying the country and, as a consequence, shut down any serious expertise in the issue of what came to be known as SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative), aka Star Wars. Serious experts in USSR (military and scientists) desperately tried to inform Gorbachev that this SDI thing was mostly bluff and cartoons. They were ignored, Gorbachev needed an excuse, as Yakov Kedmi termed it, for meeting American "partners" in a doggy-style manner. We all know what happened next and, as usual, the United States learned all the wrong lessons from this. 

American idea of keeping a homeland completely defended from any kind of attack is understandable, it is also utterly utopian. Yet, acting both on wrong geopolitical (and historic, I may add) assumptions and out of interests of powerful military-industrial complex lobby and totally corrupt political system, US tries to repeat what she perceives her greatest triumph in the Cold War 1.0, facts and real history be damned.  So, the United States decided to: 

President Donald Trump ripped yet another page from Cold War strategy books Thursday by directing the Pentagon to look into developing a constellation of space-based sensors and interceptors that could stop missiles before they reach the United States. “We will de­stroy every type of mis­sile at­tack against any Amer­i­can tar­get, whether before or af­ter launch,” he told a crowd assembled inside the Pentagon auditorium. “When it comes to de­fend­ing Amer­ica, we will not take any chances. We will only take ac­tion.” The need for new technologies, the President said, was necessary to deal with the growing size and sophistication of missile arsenals belonging to hostile states, such as Iran, North Korea, Russia and China. In addition, he out­lined plans to install 20 additional ground-based inter­cep­tor mis­siles at Fort Greely, Alaska, a decision that was previously announced.

As they say, the more things change, the more they stay the same. While some are afraid of the arms race between the US and Russia (and China), truth is--this race never stopped. American political and intellectual top has become so sterile in terms of its, well, intellect, that the only thing it is capable of is to remain an old dog incapable of learning new tricks. This, plus a desperate desire to bury INF Treaty, which comes down to "intercepting" Iranian (LOL) missiles at Russian borders. But Deja Vu doesn't stop here. As ever confused German diplomacy starts its so familiar from 1980s, in slightly more modern arrangements, tune:

Moscow (AFP) - German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Friday called on Russia to destroy a controversial missile system Washington says breaches a key arms control treaty. "We believe Russia can save this treaty," Maas said after talks with Russia's top diplomat Sergei Lavrov, referring to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF). "It affects our security interests in a fundamental way."

Maas sings here from the American music sheet and it is totally expected from Germany. As I wrote some time ago, it is all about a generational lag in weapon systems between US and Russia. People in Pentagon are not idiots, at least some of them, they can calculate probabilities, required forces (missiles), math expectations etc. So, they know the score:

1. No system, unless it is based on a dramatically radical new technology, based on some bizarre physical principles (no, not lasers) can intercept any of Russia's newest weapons. This is decades away. Putting something ABM in Alaska against the background of RS-28 Sarmat or Avangard which can attack from any direction (how about through Mexico), is akin to treating 4th stage aggressive cancer with aspirin. But:

2. Pouring money into some systems, which are immensely expensive, will be good for US military-industrial complex which will greatly improve employment statistics and the fountain of desirable fat bonuses and new sinecures for retiring Pentagon people will erupt with a renewed force. 

Probably, the first indication that 1980s SDI trick will not work as desired is Russian rather nonchalant reaction to all this. Obviously, Lavrov expressed regret that INF Treaty is all but over (Russians know that START will follow) and all that chit-chat, but Russian military solution is already in place and what is left is to observe in amusement how the United States will continue to bankrupt itself by "investing" into something totally useless. There is another hypothesis here too: those people in the US who, actually, tried to study Russia, they couldn't fail to notice that Russia's recent (since mid-2000s) economic breakthrough was achieved by means of revitalizing Russian military-industrial complex (MIC), which was used as locomotive of hi-tech development. This will not work in US since Russian and American MICs are genetically different and have different effect on respective economies. For starters, incidents of Russian MIC producing enormously expensive dubious systems are dramatically lower than is the case in the US. 

As per actual weapons--the reason this whole thing is utopian and wasteful is because Russia (and reportedly China) is far ahead in developing anti-satellite weapons, which will act as interceptors for any space-based weapon systems thus degrading greatly any possible response. Here is 2017 report of the Director of National Intelligence Daniel R. Coates to Senate Select Committee on Intelligence:

Some new Russian and Chinese ASAT weapons, including destructive systems, will probably complete development in the next several years. Russian military strategists likely view counterspace weapons as an integral part of broader aerospace defense rearmament and are very likely pursuing a diverse suite of capabilities to affect satellites in all orbital regimes. Russian lawmakers have promoted military pursuit of ASAT missiles to strike low-Earth orbiting satellites, and Russia is testing such a weapon for eventual deployment. A Russian official also acknowledged development of an aircraft launched missile capable of destroying satellites in low-Earth orbit.

We need to be very clear on what is going on, especially after March 1, 2018 public arrival of a new paradigm in warfare--the US was put in a position which she thought she would never be in--a necessity to respond and to catch up. Destruction of Arms Control regime and attempts to replay Cold War 1.0 are such responses. Many observers, me included, noted already in 2014 that the United States was put into zugzwang, when each next move deteriorates position. Why it is so, my next book looks into these issues. In the end, nobody forced the United States to unilaterally abandon ABM Treaty in 2002, she did it completely on own volition and, may I add, wrong assumptions. And that was worse than a crime, it was a blunder. 

Some Thoughts On Russian "Opposition".

I deliberately used "opposition" term, instead of more traditional "liberals", for a reason--at this stage I see less and less difference between most of the politico-ideological fringes in Russia be that "liberals", self-proclaimed "nationalists" or, even, some "communists" from, what Alexander Rogers astutely termed as CPRF (Commercial Party of Russian Federation--you know, "communists"). There is very little difference between these people and media which serve them. Practically all of them are hysterical and, as was noted not for once (this relates to any media), are populated by office plankton which fancies themselves "journalists". This is an eclectic public which is badly educated and has no serious professional or human skills but, because they have degrees in "journalism", "economics", sociology, what have you, they think that they know things. They don't in regards to any field which actually requires serious expertise, forget serious system analysis.

As I stated not for once--modern world became so complex that ability to use iPhone or, even, write some app counts for nothing where systematic education and ability to grasp complex reality is required. Person with degree in the so called "journalism" does not have cognitive apparatus for passing judgements on even basic technological and industrial topics, forget military ones--that is a wowser. Such a person surely will not be able to write Manufacturing Plan (say for leading edge of the wing of aircraft), nor will.... nah...whom am I kidding here--most of them don't know shit from shinola. Add here, usually, egos larger than cathedrals, arrogance and organic disagreement with policies (usually from liberal, that is libertarian, perspective--that is, it is all about me, me, me) no matter how good or bad those policies are and you get this BS from known mouth-piece of Western "business circles" rag Kommersant which drops the "news" (5 days ago) about Russian MC-21 narrow body aircraft being under threat because the West stopped providing composite materials for MC-21's "black", that is fully composite carbon fiber, wing (in Russian).  

The fact that trio of losers who wrote (or were ordered to) this piece forgot to mention that such a "threat" was realized already in 2015 and that there was a reason that UAC (United Aircraft Corporation) responded to publication and to Kommersant's "sources" which were used for writing this load of crap, as totally contrived, seemed not to bother them. Of course, they know better, because they are...journalists. But, as you may have guessed already, in the world of liberal (and so called "patriotic") hamsters this publication created yet another shitstorm about "Putin Vse Slil" (Putin Flushed Everything Down). And here we come to the key issue--it is not surprising that it is very difficult to find bio (or basic CVs) info on all those liberal (and "patriotic") journos. Who would want to flaunt their incompetence. But hear me out. It was this same Kommersant which 8 month ago, in April 2018, started spreading not only fake (I called it immediately, in Russian) but deliberately provocative info about allegedly 7 Russian aircraft destroyed at air-base Khmeimim in Syria. Well, Kommersant was spreading this BS based, yet again, on its "sources" in MoD. Boy, was there a revelation when their "source" turned out to be nothing more than amateur Roman Saponkov who decided to become a freelance "hero-reporter" and who, most likely himself was BSed by his Syrian "sources" of the level of janitor in the convenience store near Khmeimim most likely. 

Inevitably the BS was utterly debunked with a single SU-24 having its empennage slightly damaged by a shrapnel--damaged parts were replaced within 24 hours and the aircraft continued to fly combat missions. Saponkov doubled down on his BS and, basically, should be treated as a pathological liar and a man with zero military experiences. But Kommersant really DOES know what it is doing and for WHOSE benefit it is constantly spreading all kinds of BS. After shistorm created by this rag subsided somewhat and, as usual, all premise of this shitstorm turned out to be mostly a disinformation, specialists started talking. For starters they reminded these panic-mongers that already in 2015 things were rolling:
Russia aims to regain its leadership in the carbon fiber sector and the production of strong, lightweight composite materials used in construction and industry.   
So, basically for people who spread such a BS it is beyond their grasp that after Match 1, 2018 Putin's speech to Federal Assembly they should have made a note to themselves that they know very little. But significance of that speech was not in new weapons, by now even Russian "opposition", while cringing, already knows inside that they are fools. No, the significance of Kinzhals, Zircons, Avangards, what have you is in the fact that such missiles use large percentage of carbon fiber and other composite materials in their assembly. So, one is forced to ask then--can the nation which develops such breakthrough materials which allow weapon systems to remain under control and functional while flying in the cloud of a hot plasma, develop a carbon fiber material for a wing of a commercial aircraft? Well, for people with even an iota of common sense the answer seems obvious. This is not to speak of the fact that Kommersnat's BS was already debunked. But now recall this, recent "vbros" (throw in of fake info). Another BS spread, gleefully by Russian "opposition" media.

Of  course, this too was debunked, but couple days ago, Russia, as if taunting this bunch of Russian urban know-it-all office plankton, announced that Concern Tehnodynamica completed trials of fire protection and oxygen systems for both SSJ-100 and MC-21 (in Russian) thus continuing to increase the share of the domestic parts in both aircraft to such a degree that no "sanctions" will matter. But my issue is not with Russian industry, which continues to produce state-of-the-art technology, both military and civilian, totally out of own resources but with this extremely narrow circle of pretentious "market analysts", merchandisers, marketing specialists and holders of other degrees in recognition of a good Scotch from the bad one and Ph.Ds in the brands of smartphones, designer clothing and jewelry. Do they even feel (I don't think they have brains to grasp) this sense of own uselessness other than in the fields no serious person cares about? I give them this, though, they are useful tools (and many of them subsist on foreign grants and stipends) and idiots in a titanic war combined West, under American guidance, unleashed on Russia and Russian people. But that is the point--these are precisely the people who can produce nothing of value, beneficial to either own nation, or humanity and who can only sell ignorance and disinformation in the world in which their "reporting" is nothing more than trash thrown out daily on a dumpster where it truly belongs.    

UPDATE: Ah, lovely. Today 01/16/19 (or 16/01/19 for Europeans) the General Director of Aerocomposit company, Anatoly Gaidansy, in his interview to popular weekly Arguments and Facts (AiF) humiliates and wipes the floor with incompetent BSers from Kommersant (in Russian), while assessing their BS as: 

                      Это полнейшая техническая безграмотность

Translation: this is a complete technical illiteracy. 

My question is to Gaidansky: Anatoly, what did you expect from those losers from this liberal cabal in Moscow, the knowledge of composite structures and how their specifications are formed and applied? I am sure those advanced girls and boys from Kommersant and other "market" publications can tell us all a lot about AS9100, ah..well. In late Soviet times, during Gorbachev's disaster, the only use their newspapers would be good for as a toilet paper only. In Stalin's times they would be...well, they wouldn't be. 

A Wowser.

If you haven't heard, you better hear it now. 

President Trump’s National Security Council asked the Pentagon to provide the White House with military options to strike Iran last year, generating concern at the Pentagon and State Department, current and former U.S. officials said.

I think by now you might have guessed who this initiative originated from. I am also smiling sarcastically when reading about State Department having "concern". US so called "diplomacy" is the most aggressive mindless incompetent war-mongering institution without equals in the world, this is not to mention the fact that in terms of military-strategic realities most American so called "diplomats" don't know shit from shinola. I do, however, conceive, as I stated not for once, that actual professionals in Pentagon do have better idea about consequences of war and as such could be (yes, I know--sounds bizarre) one of those few checks which MAY work in impeding somewhat lunatic ideas emanating from the very political top. 

In related news,  as Der Spiegel reports.

Since arriving in Berlin as U.S. ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell has flouted diplomatic conventions and attempted to interfere in domestic politics. He has since become politically isolated in the German capital.

Spiegel, of course, being nothing more than globalist mouth-piece, still notes:

These days, the spotlight on Grenell seems to have grown dimmer, though not necessarily by choice. He still tweets assiduously and he never seems to say no when Fox News calls, but in Berlin, he has largely become isolated. The powerful avoid him. Doors have been shut. Few politicians to the left of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AFD) and the populist-conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of Merkel's center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), want to be seen with him.  

Why so? Well, because US "diplomat" just sent out a truck load of letters to German companies warning them that they better quit Nord Stream-2 or else (in Russian). Grenell, however, far from being an exception is a rule of contemporary American "elites" who are utterly illiterate, narcissistic and arrogant--needless to say, until this pool of utterly unqualified dimwits is removed from power and new competent and realist (not in American "realist" sense) crop of people is grown and elected into power, the United States will continue its decline, hopefully without unleashing a global war.