Let's Try Q & A And Whatever Else Sticky Post

Here is the post which I will try to keep sticky for people to ask questions and share their thoughts which are not on topic. This, I think is known as Open Thread. Fire away.

You Can Read Me Now In US Naval Institute Blog.

Russian Navy, Mission Found?

You may read my new piece on some doctrine-technology issues in today's USNI Blog post. Link is below. 

Aircraft Carriers’ Drama 

Chronicles of De-dollarization.

 RT reports: 

Moscow and Beijing have ramped up the share of settlements in national currencies to 25 percent this year against a modest two percent recorded seven years ago, according to the Russian Ambassador to China Andrey Denisov.“The share of national currencies in our [trade] relations with China is steadily increasing. It has reached about a quarter through the nine months since the beginning of the year. This is quite a big progress,” the ambassador said, citing the Chinese partners.

It was said many times, that, taken in isolation, China-Russia economic conglomerate reaches a very high level of autarky, including in the spectrum of high to very high-tech production. Russia, certainly, begins to look like an autarky--it is increasingly self-sufficient. As events of 2020 have shown, Russia weathered a number of storms without losing her focus on a larger aim of national projects and re-industrialization. Obviously, the virtuoso gambit with oil in 2020 by Russia was something to behold, because it overturned decision-making process in global energy. This is how it goes now:

OPEC, Russia and other oil major producers reached an unusual agreement on production quotas on Tuesday, with Saudi Arabia committing to reducing its oil production by one million barrels a day and Russia and Kazakhstan winning relatively modest production increases... Finding that they were unable to head off Russia’s demand for a production increase, Saudi Arabia appears to have largely given in to preserve at least a semblance of unity. “Instead of letting everything fall apart, the Saudis let the Russians have what they want,” said Bhushan Bahree, an executive director at IHS Markit, a research firm.

Didn't we see it a mile away? We did. With $53 per barrel, Russia's oil export feels just fine. It is a good way to fill coffers with cash, just for the rainy day. There are other ways, of course, to fill those coffers, ranging from grain, to weapons, to gas to even, for FFS, with Russian-made UAZ Patriot getting ready to sell in the United States. 

Italian commercial truck brand Bremach has announced plans to begin selling a Russian-designed 4x4 SUV in the U.S. sometime in 2021. The Bremach Taos is a rebadged version of the UAZ Patriot that first hit the market in 2005 and is similar in size to the Jeep Cherokee. However, the Taos is a true body on frame truck like the Toyota 4Runner that’s been updated with the modern safety systems required to make it street legal in the U.S.

Who would have thought? Good ol' Goat (Kozlik), as a legendary UAZ-469 used to be called, always had it in itself, with its ability to basically drive anywhere, to be turned into this:

There are plenty of those on the roads in Russia. In the US, the suggested price is around $26,000--around the price of a new basic version Forester. We'll see how it will sell, but these vehicles are good for bad roads. I, personally, would love to have GAZ Tigr, preferably with AGS and PKM package, but these are just my dreams.  

Speaking of which, tomorrow's voting and pro-Trump rally in D.C. do not change much, no matter the outcome--the country is hopelessly divided and increasingly cannot live with itself. You all know the truism--house divided etc. I don't hold my breath, plus I had my share of tawdry political spectacles last four years, so the only thing which I am trying to calculate is how fast a totalitarian regime will be imposed on the United States, and if there is a chance to avoid it. 

Kunstler Forecasts.

You know my position--I am not into the predictions' games. I am into the framework's description nauseating and tedious process, but I still read forecasts from a select group of people whose opinions I find interesting and worthy of noting.  James Howard Kunstler is one such man, despite me not agreeing with him on some key "framework" points, but still--kudos to James for providing us all with a rather voluminous prediction for 2021 and I wanted to specifically point out to his Russia's conclusion, especially against the background of his rather grim tone on the chances for Western Civilization:

Russia appears best positioned to sit out the economic disorders of the West and the discontents of China. Russia has already been through a traumatic economic  and political collapse and emerged much lightened, streamlined, and viable. Due to punitive US sanctions, she has had to develop an import-replacement economy, supplying more of her own needs. She has about twice the proven oil reserves as the USA and less than half our population. She has been steadily acquiring gold reserves and has been making noises about establishing a gold-backed currency — which would be a real novelty in a world of fiat junk money. She has a well-educated and relatively homogenous population of capable people who have recovered psychologically from the 75-year-long political mind-fuck of communism. She has an arsenal of world-beating hypersonic nuclear weapons. She has rational and intelligent political leadership. And Russia just passed a law stating that anyone who brings false #MeToo accusations against another citizen faces five years in prison. One looks on in awe!

James gave this section of predictions the next title: Chinese Fire Drills with Russian Dressing. Seems symptomatic enough. Read his assessment of COVID-19. One will have to consider this global phenomenon once one learns that now China claims that the actual number of infected was... 10 times. No, really, I kid you not. 

The number of coronavirus cases in the Chinese city where the pathogen was first detected may have been 10 times higher than official figures suggest, according to a study by health authorities in Wuhan.  

The game of twististics continues, so you decide who BSes who. Remarkably, it seems primarily between the US and China, while Russians, evidently, had enough and (you will understand it even without English-translation) went on... New Year's celebrations in Moscow and elsewhere. As Russia 24 report is titled: No One Is Talking About Social Distancing. Not at all, indeed. 

Gosh, free country, indeed. Granted, museums and venues are still largely closed, but if I could get myself crepes with caviar or good shashlyk--I would go too. And here is the deal: the speed with which the West imploded this year is mind-boggling. We knew it was imploding but I thought we had another decade or so--I was wrong, acceleration kicked in with a force of expanding powder gases in the cannon's barrel and we find ourselves flying along the curve of a ballistic trajectory with its inevitable, unavoidable terminus of the global financial fraud known today, for some reason, as "global economy". We know the end-result. How it will unfold--is a completely different story and I am not making any bets, I have some, however limited, feel for a stochastic nature of our existence or, as James himself likes to call it--a clusterfuck. I have seen Western "elites"--there will be no safety net to catch our descending bodies at this terminus, only hard concrete wall. Have you tried to break a concrete wall with your head? If not, I suggest you try, for now in a non-ER mode, to get a feel of how we all will feel in coming years. Damn, I made a prediction--I hate predictions. 

Meanwhile, Russia's Western Military District, in conjunction with Belorussian Armed Forces will conduct Strategic Command-Staff Maneuvers Zapad-2021 (in Russian) this year with special focus on repelling massive attacks of cruise missiles and drilling this ever important maneuver warfare (in the Net-Centric and AI paradigm) with the emphasis on a massive inter-theater maneuver by forces. Don't worry, it was planned already in 2020 so it is not that it was suddenly decided--all is in accordance to plan, so, no reasons for worrying. As the big honcho of Rostec Sergei Chemezov stated four days ago (in Russian)--first S-500s will be delivered to the front line service this year. A lot of new military porn is coming our way. Damn, I made a prediction again--I hate myself. But in the year which passed, it was new Russian Constitution which, like antibiotic introduced into the body of a person recovering after serious surgery, begins its process of healing slowly but surely. Looking from a distance of almost 30 years at Russia, I constantly catch myself on the thought that I can barely recognize the country, in a good sense. There are problems, of course, Russia's future is also not cloudless, but the chances of survival are very high. In fact, they are the best. Even China is behind in this category. And I will make last prediction--the stream of European people to Russia will increase in this decade. All this, due to events to the West of Russia, which also necessitate events such as Zapad-2021. Just in case.  Ah, yes, in conclusion--my new book should see the light of the day sometime in March, April--the latest.

Possibly, Happy New Year.

 I just couldn't resist. LOL. 

"It was a very difficult year for all of us". (c) Jennifer Anniston. 

 

It Was A Hard Year. Let's Relax, Somewhat.

Yet, I still can sense a rebel, in a good sense, spirit and some seeds of possible revival. No, not of the "Western Civilization" as they try to sell to us today--it has no relation to anything "Western"--but of humanity in general, granted that it is not easy to remain human nowadays. "Western Civilization" as it really is, is not what passes today for it. The Western Civilization which I love is not what it is today--there is nothing "Western" in it--but there was a time when a free spirit was almost free and not in a sense of "third wave feminism" finding "empowerment" in baring itself and behaving like sluts, or men becoming metrosexuals, but in a sense of freedom of thought which still had a very clear understanding between right and wrong, between tasteful and despicable, between beautiful and ugly. For some reason, on the eve of fvcking 2020 (and decade) departing I want to recall some really good, in aesthetic sense, things I personally consider to be those still glowing cinders of human free artistic spirit and goodness. You know that I am a rocker, so, you may as well enjoy (or otherwise) some things I enjoy, from the time it was good to be...well... free. Yes, it was that stunning and I was there, on ELO's 2019 American Tour, Hallelujah;)))

But, of course, they still delivered something special at Wembley in the country which, pretty much, doesn't exist anymore. But humanity still does.

In general, modern technology allows to deliver some truly stunning performances which have a profound impact. Russians, certainly, got the idea of live concert which provides an amazing delivery for a true talent. 

So, if anyone says it is "too commercial", well, too bad--the best music, actually, came through "commercial" performances which have been done by real professionals. So, let's enjoy something which is not flimsy but solid and enjoyable in this passing decade in terms of music. Here is Aria delivering a stunner in the same venue as Polina Gagarina in the clip above. 

Musically and performance-wise it rivals anything Iron Maiden or Judas Priest ever did, but that is the sign of times--it is all out there and anyone can enjoy it. Think about it--we couldn't even dream about access to such a treasure 20 years ago. We have it now, and not to music alone. Russians meanwhile do real power metal. 

So, enjoy the passing of this shitty year. We will not miss it.

The "Ominous" Commissioning.

Depends, of course, for who this commissioning is ominous. Today, Russian Navy received yet another ship. The flag was raised on Project 20385 Corvette Gremyaschiy (Thunderous) and this is not an ordinary delivery. Not to speak of this ship joining fast modernizing Russia's Pacific Fleet.

These are very different from now popular and versatile corvettes of the Project 20380.  The differences between the two brotherly classes are, actually, dramatic. Not only new corvettes are larger, they are armed differently and this difference is not only in the main strike weaponry--20385 are carriers of Kalibr family, P-800 Oniks and 3M22 Zircon. They also have a new AESA radar Zaslon, whose capabilities are well represented in this Russian-language video. 

This is a considerable upgrade over run-of-the-mill (by Russian standards) traditional for pr. 20380 Furke. Whatever else is packed inside the integrated mast of these ships--we can only guess. Obviously something for specifically surface search and targeting, including over-the-horizon. It goes without saying that satellite communications and data-links allow receiving and providing targeting within combat network from and to multiple sources, so, all things considered, the use of the main missile systems to the maximum range is assured. Judging by the open info Zaslon and Redut air defense complexes are fully integrated and the whole thing looks absolutely intimidating for the fraction of a price of project 22350 Gorshkov-class frigates. It is certainly more expensive than relatively austere 20380 but 20385 dwarfs its strike capability. All 6 project 20385 corvettes with the strike fire power of a destroyer are bound for Pacific Fleet, which is being modernized and expanded dramatically. There is a reason for it. 

Obviously project 20385 are designed for A2/AD primarily but the funniest thing about this A2/AD "thingy" is that  with new missile complexes such as 3M14M and 3M22 even couple of such ships can completely control all of Japan and Okinawa and can strike from Bering Sea anywhere in Alaska, Northern Canada and parts of the US Pacific Northwest. But here is the main point--for anyone who didn't spend last 10 years under the stone--it will come as no surprise at all that the shipbuilding program for the Russian Navy accelerates, especially after Russia removing her dependency on Ukraine in power plant. Next 7 years will see 70 new major combatants (I exclude here Russia's Coast Guard which is being thoroughly modernized) ranging from brand new SSGNs of Project 885M (Severodvinsk-class), SSBNs, large amphibious assault ships and newest frigates and corvettes. In her combat shipbuilding today Russia lags only behind China and the US. But don't be surprised seeing Russian Navy hitting number two spot in the next few years. But, in the end, these are not just platforms and their numbers which, of course, matter--these are weapon systems and sensor suites which make all the difference. Project 20385 embodies this philosophy--a lone ship of this class can destroy anything with a single salvo at the ranges which seemed inconceivable even 10 years ago. All that--in about 2500 tons of a displacement. But then again, take a look at the Karakurt-class to get the idea.  Ah, yes, Russia is a shipbuilding yard, masquerading as a country. She is also an aircraft and space ship station masquerading as a country. So, you get my drift. 

In related news, 10,000 tons of high-tech self-propelled polar institute has been floated 10 days ago. LSP North Pole is Russia's major return to Arctic research. 

The form of the vessel is specifically designed to freeze into the ice but not be crushed by it. This institute is capable to conduct geological, acoustic, geophysical, meteorological, you name it, research. Ah yes, Russia is a scientific station, masquerading as a country. As Patrick Armstrong recently concluded: 

The operative statement here is “if we could have, we would have”. The truth is that only Russia can and that means that the Arctic is essentially a Russian lake, or, if you prefer, a Russian skating rink.

In a humiliating insult to Canadian pride, rumor has it, Russians are toying with the idea of a Russian Zamboni production. This is an atrocity, really, but that is just a rumor. Hopefully Russia will abandon this reckless idea in order to save Russian-Canadian relations at some point in the distant future.