Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Larry About Numbers...

I agree, it was the psychological pressure of the truth which made Ursula, as Larry puts it:

These are NATO estimates  and they are at the lower end--real number of VSU KIAs is even higher, once one considers how Kiev hides KIAs in MIAs statistics--and they are, especially when considered with wounded ranging anywhere between 3 to 5 times the number of KIAs, are terrifying for Pentagon and NATO. Larry concludes:

As I have discussed previously, Russia’s current military leadership is not following the tactics Soviet generals employed in WW II (i.e., mass troop assaults). Russia primarily has relied on massive artillery and rocket/missile strikes before launching a ground offensive. The Russian rate of artillery fire is unlike anything we’ve seen in history. More importantly, the accuracy of the artillery is enhanced by the use of drones and satellites to adjust fires, with updated coordinates relayed in real time to the artillery units.  

Another factor contributing to Ukraine’s horrendous casualties is its lack of air power and effective air defense systems to counter Russian batteries. If Ukrainian troops try to attack a Russian fixed position, their movement by foot or vehicle is unprotected and vulnerable to Russian artillery or combat air.

It appears that some Western analysts who previously pooh-poohed the Russian tactics, are finally beginning to realize that Russia is serious about de-militarizing Ukraine via methodical, grinding tactics. There will come a point when Ukraine runs out of men and cannot field a combat effective force. It appears that day is approaching.

And the question we all must ponder: IS Russian Winter offensive coming once the ground freezes? The forces Russia accumulated around Ukraine are now numbering roughly 540,000 troops (per Douglas MacGregor) and this is slightly less than the size of the force Marshal Tolbukhin had in his 3rd Ukrainian Front (Army Group), including 17th Air Army before Balkans' Campaign and the battle for Vienna. 

Just some historic reference points. Of course, neither Tolbukhin's 3rd nor Malinovsky's 2nd Ukrainian Fronts, which combined had 1.2 million troops, had everything Russia has today, but one has to begin to appreciate the scale of what is potentially cooking. Yeah, Patton with his 150,000 men was ready to "drive Russians back to Moscow", LOL. He did have issues with math, being dyslexic. What is left to us is to wait and see, but what many eyewitnesses describe unfolding in Bakhmut (Artemovsk) is an industrial scale slaughter of VSU and NATO "volunteers" to the point that nobody simply recovers hundreds of bodies. We can bet our asses on those KIAs being statistically defined by Kiev regime as MIAs. Well, it is in operational encirclement and it will fall at some point of time not far in the future. You heard today that Shoigu announced the completion of training of more than 300,000 troops, right? I wonder why, wink, wink.

About Timing...

My timing. Just yesterday I spoke about the necessity to look at the things that really matter on the global stage and that REAL news was Russia's "abrupt" withdrawal from START consultations. I also stressed, that technically Russia doesn't need START mainly due to these two major reasons (there are some other less important reasons too):

1. Technologically in terms of strategic arms, or arms having a capacity to provide a strategic effect, while not being strategic in de jure sense, Russia is so ahead of the United States that...

2. The United States doesn't have both technological and, most importantly, industrial wherewithal to close the gap, which is widening and makes namely the United States a party in a position of needing this treaty desperately. 

Russia has all necessary data on the state of the US nuclear deterrent and its ABM, very grossly exaggerated, capability and knows that she loses nothing if START is stalled, for a while at least. In the end, the US is a non-agreement capable party and any treaty with the US is not worth the paper such a treaty is signed on. takes two to tango. 

Russia sees no possibility of resuming talks with Washington on the cornerstone New START arms control treaty while the US continues to arm Ukraine, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Wednesday. Speaking in a live interview on radio Sputnik, Maria Zakharova said: “The US intends to supply even more weapons to the conflict region, in which the Russian Federation is directly involved. That is, they will supply all these weapons, they will encourage the Kiev regime to cause even more bloodshed, they will allocate money for extremist activities that are carried out under the auspices of these delusional people [in the Ukrainian presidency], and we will sit with them at the same table and discuss issues of mutual security with them, including those in their interest?" The spokeswoman stressed that Moscow values the New START agreement, as it serves the best interests of both Russia and the US, adding that the necessary conditions must be met before talks can be resumed.

State Department, evidently, never knew--not surprising--that others can play the game too, and it is going to hurt like hell. Recall, that many, yours truly included, pointed out to the fact that the MAD eventually will "dissipate" for a single reason that the US lag in anti-missile technology both qualitatively and quantitatively may, and most likely, will become so massive that the US deterrent my lose a lot of its credibility, which is the foundation of MAD. It was the US, not Russia, who abrogated ABM Treaty--after that the US discovered that it is nowhere near the ABM and anti-hypersonic capabilities of such systems as S-500 or A-235 Nudol, among other new physical principles weapons such as laser Peresvet and who knows what else. 

The death of INF Treaty saw the US discovering that its land-attack capability is nowhere near Russian one, especially in terms of ranges and velocities. 10,000 km range X-101s and 4,500 range 3M14M Kalibr are already here. And then, of course, there is this hypersonic arsenal. So, one can easily recognize the pattern of the US assuming wrongly and then finding itself in a strategic bind. I can only imagine how many in State Department and Pentagon salivate from any prospect of getting any close quarters intel on such things as RS-28 Sarmat or Poseidon. The only thing which can allow the US side to gain this legally is the regime of inspections for START. But here we are today--no inspections, only quid pro quo.  If not, then--too bad... for the US. Zakharova merely confirmed it today. Is there something like "S-700", of which late Zhirinovsky joked, in works in Russia? You can bet your ass on that.  

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

About Pope...

... and how he has no clue... This is Shaman in Kazan, yes, Tatarstan capital and "the third capital of Russia", 9 days ago. 

I don't know, how can you explain to some moron from Ivy League "history" department what it even means, they don't have organs developed for this. 

Some Important Points...

Our friend Adski1977 brought up a couple of days ago:

"why they aren't going harder."

The Russians are in full war mode now, but at the start of the SMO they were more interested in scaring the Ukrainians into negotiations and concessions. It would seem that initially they wanted to settle it in a way where everyone would be happy, so they offered a reasonable deal for Ukraine and the West. There are many speculations as to why the Russians were so soft and generous in these initial phases. Alexander Mercouris speculates in his latest video that at that time Putin cared about optics and was worried about Russia's alliances, thinking that if Russia goes too hard it will alienate its partners.

But Jack Stoneson may also be onto something - maybe the Russians didn't want to rock the boat too much because they are not interested in destroying the world order, but more interested in being respected within it. So they wanted to push, but push gently. And by now they realize that pushing gently will not get them anywhere.

These are important points and hypotheses but they are wrong. The reason they are wrong is this blog which since 2014 was documenting non-stop Russia's "autarcization" and implementing import substitution whose ONLY purpose was to be independent of the West which, by default, implies if not explicitly states that Russia has zero illusions about West's intentions in a strategic framework. This decoupling, while manifesting itself differently in terms of intensity in the last 9 years, was relentless nonetheless. 

But then again, let's go back to Putin's Munich Speech in 2007. The intent was there already, another matter, that what many people fail to recognize is that in a strategic planning one always considers those "decision trees" and nexuses which, in case of Russia-West relations, always spread across the whole spectrum of the outcomes from soft to very hard scenarios. The same was and is going on with SMO, which branches out to other nexuses, and Russia's adherence to a Landsraad parctice from Dune--the forms must be obeyed. Especially when one has escalation dominance across the board in Ukraine and elsewhere. 

I speak about it today in my latest video and about the lost arms race by NATO. 

In fact, the puzzlement and even desperation on the part of the US State Department is palpable regarding Russia's "abrupt" cancellation of START consultations. Yeah, Russia WILL NOT allow any Western "inspections" near technologies and processes which produced all those Russia's "cartoon" and CGI weapons which turned out to be all too real and changed the balance of power globally. Russia will offer a new date to the US when it fits Russia and when the US will change its position regarding this desperate desire "to inspect". Right. Next thing you know they will demand blueprints and know-how for RS-28 Sarmat, S-500, 3M22 Zircon, Avangard and Poseidon. Russia learns her lessons.

Monday, November 28, 2022

Ania Talks To Me Today.

A short foray into the state of the global affairs. 

This ever important "strategy" of Russia becomes more and more pronounced.

Sunday, November 27, 2022

A New Term For Me From Larry.

And I love it. It is from his latest on Europe's and the US' plight. 

Amazing. The Politico authors blame Putin for what the United States and Europe did to themselves. I can hear Europe’s lament, “It is another fine mess you’ve gotten us into America.” I am amused by the European official’s complaint that the United States is profiting at Europe’s expense. When I was working at the CIA as an analyst, we had a phrase for this kind of Captain Obvious moment — we called it “No Shit Analysis”, NSA for short. The coming days and weeks will see the recriminations and resentment towards the United States grow and spread throughout Europe. This will make it more difficult for Europe to support the war in Ukraine at the very time that Ukraine’s needs for foreign aid and military support will increase. While Europe correctly perceives that some sectors of the U.S. economy are raking in profits at the expense of Europe, the economy of the United States is showing clear signs of a retracting economy on multiple fronts.

A superb piece, which also focuses on what really matters--real economy. Do they even know what No Shit Analysis is in the White House?

Something Not Geopolitcs Realted.

While still in Weekend. Among English language football commentators I have my favorites, for decades now. I also understand that it is a PC world and sticking women's soccer commentators is a must nowadays, and I have no problem with many girls, some of them, as was the case with superb British gal who commented on the Fox post games show from the Red Square in 2018.  Aly Wagner was also there and she did reasonably well, sadly this WC she is lacking. As I already stated, there are some commentators from Anglo world who are simply both highest level cultured people and incredible voice artists. Some of them are a delight to follow because they convey the intensity and atmosphere, which we, mere mortals, can see only through the TV screen. 

It will be a long time before women will be able to deliver this commentator "package" with such professional class and both latent and open emotion as incomparable Derek Rae, JP Dellacamera, Ian Darke, not to speak of Andres Cantor, all of who, including some other important names, such as outstanding Martin Tyler, who comments EPL, create the ornament for the game. I personally simply enjoy their voices and delivery, as was always the case with this incredible pair of Gary Thorne and Bill Clement who called NHL in 1990s and 2000s. In the era of NewSpeak and primitivization of English language as a whole, they were and remain some of the most powerful reminders of how powerful the language, any language, could be and... how beautiful it is when it is delivered with flow, clarity and superb pronunciation tailored perfectly to the heat of the moment. Just enjoy this Scottish diamond, Derek Rae. 

These are last vestiges of real, genuine, culture, among few others. And, of course, who can forget this))

It is not a rumor, Andres almost passed out while calling this. And yes, this is Spanish.

Saturday, November 26, 2022

Open Thread...

But this should be kept in mind--a major reason why attempts to "isolate" Russia failed miserably.  

By criticizing Russian legislation banning LGBTQ, pedophilia, and sex-change propaganda, US officials are interfering in the nation’s internal affairs, Moscow’s embassy in Washington said on Friday. It also urged the US to respect the views of the Russian people. In a statement, the embassy said it had noted “the statements of numerous of US officials” criticizing the bill, which was approved by Russia’s parliament on Thursday. “We consider such statements as gross interference in our internal affairs,” the diplomatic mission said, adding that “Russia consistently stands for the protection of traditional family values” and rejects “attempts by Western states, led by the United States, to impose pseudo-liberal and perverted ideas about human rights on other countries.” The embassy asked the US to respect the decision of Russian citizens “to adhere to moral guidelines” that have been embraced by many generations and are “the basis of Russian civic identity.”

While the combined West is well on its way to institutionalize pedophilia and other biological and psychiatric perversions with cowards in political and business top echelon, except when pedophiles and sodomites themselves, surrendering without a fight to a homicidal "cultural" agenda, Russia goes the other way-- preserving many millennia old tradition of human species survival, procreation and progress which is based on biological family and love between a man and a woman. 

Fire away...

Friday, November 25, 2022

Around The Net. Andrei Raevsky...

 ... wrote a superb piece on "Suicide by Cop". Strongly suggest to read it. Especially this:

Also my friend Mike Krupa talks to my other friend Larry Johnson 


Saving The Honor...

 ... and Allied spirit. As Mr. Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner Group stated today: 

Как сообщил бизнесмен, отвечая на вопрос финской газеты Helsingin Sanomat, граждан Финляндии в составе ЧВК «Вагнер» есть «не очень много», около 20 человек. «По понятным причинам я не могу давать точную информацию о них», — указал он. При этом предприниматель отметил, что это, как правило, «высококлассные специалисты, очень идейные и мотивированные». По словам Пригожина, у него сложилось очень хорошее мнение о финнах на поле боя. Бизнесмен добавил, что они воюют в британском батальоне в составе ЧВК «Вагнер», командиром которого является гражданин США, экс-генерал морской пехоты.

Translation: As the businessman said, answering a question from the Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat, there are “not very many” Finnish citizens in the Wagner PMC, about 20 people. “For obvious reasons, I cannot give accurate information about them,” he said. At the same time, the entrepreneur noted that these are, as a rule, “highly qualified specialists, very ideological and motivated.” According to Prigozhin, he had a very good opinion about the Finns on the battlefield. The businessman added that they are fighting in a British battalion as part of the Wagner PMC, commanded by a US citizen, ex-general of the Marine Corps.

How about that! British Battalion! USMC General fighting Nazis. A very pleasant surprise. Deepest respect to those people of good faith all around the world. Not everything is lost with such people in the West.

In related news: this is the first MC-21 in Rossiya airline livery.  

This is experimental MC-21 which will fly for now without passengers in order to iron out all issues which may appear during commercial use of the upcoming fleet of MC-21s. So, there you go.

Thursday, November 24, 2022

A Very Funny Turkey.

I already wrote about Adam Kinzinger as an unhinged war-monger. The guy is obviously a complete nuts, which qualifies him for the US House of Representatives, where he resided till recently. But, evidently, this Lt. Colonel has issues. Now, the Gateway Pundit commented on them, LOL))) And Salty Cracker decided to elaborate.

You know what? I cannot imagine getting into the debate with and threatening violence to a virtual cat character with an excellent handle of the... Cat Turd, LOL. Now, this Thanksgiving evening I sit and laugh like crazy after seeing and reading this. It is also sad, that such unhinged wussies make it to the US Congress. But then again, people of Illinois deserve the Representative they elected. What a turkey! Or as Bugs Bunny would say:
I think Vovan and Lexus should call Kinzinger...

Hypersonic Ad Nauseam On Thanksgiving.

There is some constant media "movement" and hassle around the US program of development of hypersonic weapons, which even a few short years ago, especially before March 2018, very many in the US in general, and Pentagon in particular, counted as a gimmick and boutique weapon systems. Boy, did they miscalculate. Now, suddenly, the United States are into hypersonics big time primarily into what could be defined as medium-range glide body for CPS (Conventional Prompt Strike). 

In some sense, it is a very American program since it revolves primarily around hitting fixed targets with the stand-off weapon, with it being hypersonic serving this "promptness" of which we all hear since the inception in early 2000s (W's Administration) and then de facto abandonment of the Prompt Global Strike (PGS) program, and relying on the enemy possessing no response and defense capabilities. This whole "Prompt Strike" thing, in other words, has been around in different iterations for at least 20 years with... nothing to show up for it with the exception, and you have guessed it, a lot of media noise. 

It warrants comparison with Russian program of hypersonic weapons all of which have been in serial production and deployed and even used in combat by the first line combat units. It is clear that the United States is nowhere near to fielding anything comparable to Avangard or 3M22 Zircon. I do not see anything comparable for years and, naturally, the only segment in which the US has any chance is that of weapon system being developed within the framework of CPS--a roughly 3,000 kilometer range glide body. And here where it all starts to get very confusing for many. US media constantly report on some minor developments of these weapons. But, as the US Navy reports three weeks ago:

Well, it is understandable why Johnny Wolfe talks about time not being a friend of the program. But even the US Army "Dark Eagle" is not a weapon, at least not yet, despite the constant stream of reports around it. But in the October a more subdued reports started to appear:

AUSA 2022 — The US Army will have a “couple” of live fire flight tests this fiscal year for its hypersonic weapon  program as it works toward fielding the missile in the coming months, according to the three-star leading the effort. Lt. Gen. Rob Rasch, director of the Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office, said today the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon program is still on track to field to units by the end of fiscal 2023. Rasch said that the tests will “characterize” the glide body, the two-stage rocket motor and ground support equipment. Asked what would happen if the test fails, Rasch said the RCCTO team would “manage risk.” “If we have an anomaly and we don’t reach our … threshold, then we’ll sit down, analyze it and [talk] amongst the team and manage the risk as we go,” Rasch said during an event hosted by Defense News.

Exactly, as the Russian saying goes: don't say "hop" before you jump. Report continues:

FY23 is an important year for the Army’s modernization priorities, as the service plans to have 24 of of its 35 modernization either fielded or in prototyping. Asked if the service would be able to reach the goal, Army assistant secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology Doug Bush said he was “confident.” “We have a very well informed plan to do so,” Bush said. “Of course, there are risks. So one thing we do very well and we’re going into some test cycles on new equipment, just learn from the testing, adapt our plans, and then move from there. “So not everything is going to go perfectly, but that’s the point of doing the test.”

And here is the point of which we can now start talking confidently. As I write non-stop and ad nauseam--NO weapons system, even the most advanced exists in the technological and operational vacuum, the thing which Pentagon still didn't learn. Real integration comes with REAL, that is making operational sense and impact, integration of weapon system into the network of other weapons and systems which operate as unified organism. And here is the point: the United States now is involved in a life and death struggle with Russia, trying to preserve its increasingly untenable (and grossly exaggerated) status of a hegemon. But! But, if Russian hypersonic weapons created a revolution in military affairs, American ones will fail to do so. Here is an interesting explanation from Colonel (Ret.) Knutov, who today is a Director of Russia's Air Defense Forces museum. This is how he assesses the US program and the state of the affairs. 

                «Догонят» минимум через три года

Военный историк Юрий Кнутов в разговоре с iReactor оценил намерение Пентагона увеличить объемы исследований и темпы испытаний гиперзвукового оружия. По его словам, с учетом неудачных испытаний, которые США не раз проводили с целью создания гиперзвука, срок реализации военной программы составит не менее трех лет. «Американцы сейчас разрабатывают подобного рода системы, где-то в 2025-2027 году у них на вооружение должны поступить первые гиперзвуковые ракеты для подводных лодок и наземных систем», — отметил эксперт.

Юрий Кнутов отметил, что заявленная Пентагоном дальность стрельбы гиперзвуковых ракет составит около трех тысяч километров. При этом у российской армии уже есть то, что можно противопоставить в случае успеха США.

К примеру, система ПВО С-500 «Прометей», представляющая собой комплекс противоракетной обороны, которая была поставлена на вооружение в армию РФ еще в 2021 году. Радиус поражения С-500 составляет около 600 километров. Согласно заявленным характеристикам, она способна перехватывать в том числе гиперзвуковые и беспилотные летательные аппараты. Эксперт добавил, что Россия постоянно совершенствует те вооружения, которые есть, и продолжает разрабатывать новые. Поэтому Америке не удастся обогнать РФ. «Когда США разработают новые образцы вооружений, у России уже будет более совершенная технология. Поэтому отставание между Россией и Соединенными Штатами будет сохраняться на уровне 5-7 лет», — резюмировал Юрий Кнутов.

Translation: They will "catch up" in minimum three years. Military historian Yuri Knutov, in a conversation with iReactor, assessed the Pentagon's intention to increase the volume of research and the pace of testing of hypersonic weapons. According to him, taking into account the unsuccessful tests that the United States has repeatedly conducted in order to create hypersonics, the implementation period of the military program will be at least three years. “The Americans are now developing systems of this kind, somewhere in 2025-2027 they should receive the first hypersonic missiles for submarines and ground systems,” the expert noted. Yuri Knutov noted that the range of hypersonic missiles declared by the Pentagon will be about three thousand kilometers. At the same time, the Russian army already has something that can be countered if the United States succeeds. For example, the S-500 Prometheus air defense system, which is an anti-missile defense system that was put into service with the Russian army back in 2021. The radius of destruction of the S-500 is about 600 kilometers. According to the declared characteristics, it is capable of intercepting, among other things, hypersonic and unmanned aerial vehicles. The expert added that Russia is constantly improving the existing weapons and continues to develop new ones. Therefore, America will not be able to overtake the Russian Federation. “When the United States develops new types of weapons, Russia will already have more advanced technology. Therefore, the lag between Russia and the United States will remain at the level of 5-7 years,” summed up Yuri Knutov.

The "catch up" is in quotation marks deliberately, because as Knutov (and many other serious specialists in the filed, not least the President of Russia himself) note for years--the lag of 5-7 years which will be permanent (why, is a separate issue) will constantly mean not only better and generation ahead weapons, but systems of countering of appearing US weapons as a systems of previous generations. 

As with the Sputnik moment in 1957, after the US trying to demonstrate that it too has a viable space program, which it did have, initial problems with US satellites, such as Flopnik, Kaputnik or Jalopnik, among many other humiliating titles for Vanguard TV 3, lead to a reasonable call from all sides to "either put up, or shut up". We are living in the same paradigm today in regards to warfare. Comparisons are not only warranted, they are irresistible. For more than two decades the United States was trying to present the world with a new word in weapons. In these 20+ years the US didn't produce a single workable hypersonic weapon, while Russia produced an astonishing variety and, most importantly, weapons to counter weapon systems which the United States... doesn't have. Thus the lag becomes chronic and the gap unbridgeable, especially against the upcoming of increased range Zircons and a variety of M=9+ anti-shipping and land-attack missiles designed to be carried by all kinds of combat aircraft. 

Considering already existing and rapidly increasing gap in anti-missile and anti-air systems between Russia and the US, one can easily see how the balance of power shifts dramatically. In fact, have you heard much about US Navy's aircraft carriers lately? 

The USS Gerald R. Ford, and the strike group bearing its name, are set to return home to Naval Station Norfolk on Saturday. The Navy’s newest and largest aircraft carrier deployed for the first time on Oct. 4. The warship is the first of a new generation. “I am honored to welcome the Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group home from their inaugural deployment in the Atlantic, where they strengthened relationships with Allies and partners, exercised combined capabilities and demonstrated our commitment in the Atlantic,” said Vice Adm. Dan Dwyer, commander of the U.S. 2nd Fleet and Joint Force Command, Norfolk. “This deployment brought together an incredible group of Allies and partners with one single focus — to contribute to a peaceful, stable, and conflict-free Atlantic region through our combined naval power. Opportunities to interoperate and integrate make our nations, our navies, and the NATO Alliance stronger.” The Ford sailed more than 9,200 miles in the Atlantic, alongside ships from Canada, the Netherlands, Denmark, France, Germany, Spain, Finland and Sweden.

Well,  remaining in the Atlantic, with occasional visits to UK, is the fate of the US carrier-centric navy in coming decades, because venturing any closer to Europe, let alone into Mediterranean is not a good idea in case of, God forbids, serious war. These are strategic shifts which happen in a front of our eyes and it is a pathway to the new world in which there is very little place for modern West which now has no resources to re-assert itself. Moreover, it is not the West anymore. Meanwhile in 404:

The executive committee of Odessa city council has supported an initiative to dismantle a monument to Russian empress Catherine II, commonly known as Catherine the Great, who founded the city. “Members of the executive committee supported the draft decision on the dismantling and transfer of the monument to the Founders of Odessa,” the Odessa City Council wrote on their official Telegram channel on Thursday. The initiative will now be put to a vote by the city deputies on November 30, after which the monument may be moved from Ekaterininskaya Square to a proposed “park of Imperial and Soviet past.”

Recognize the pattern? Meanwhile for those in the US, Happy Thanksgiving, and that the world hasn't been thrown into the global thermonuclear war--it is an ample reason for being thankful.

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Give Saudis A Credit.

Yesterday they downed heavy favorites Argentina due to Saudis being... extremely well-organized defensively, two wonderful, especially second one, goals and phenomenal goalkeeper. This is no peanuts--this is sensational. Now Japan downed Germany. Well, so far--so good.

I Like Douglas MacGregor, But...

... he really needs to freshen up his history of the Great Patriotic War, because  NKVD never "executed million soldiers" who "refused to fight". This is a complete fantasy straight out of Solzhenitsyn, Hollywood and neocons' fantasies. 

In fact, the Zagrad Otryads' primary function was to stop retreating troops, reorganize them and return to the front, including through reforming (reconstituting) combat units. Moreover, those NKVD troops themselves fought valiantly at the front lines. It is about time we stopped this NKVD executing "millions" of people shtick, because all of that is a fairy tale concocted in the deep recesses of Cold War Western anti-communism propaganda machines and BS sold to them by all kind of "victims of the regime". One simple operational fact--who, in their own mind, would "execute" a million troops, badly needed on the front in a face of overwhelming might of Nazi Germany and its vassals? Stalin was anything but stupid, he was a superb strategist and had nothing in common with caricature drawn on him in the West. Moreover, 90% of what is known to general public about GULAG and NKVD is nothing but pure propaganda.   

Now that we put this away, the newly coined "state sponsor of terrorism" continues to decommunize former Ukraine to a great effect by continuing to "run out of missiles". But, when even this creature has to say this:

One has to question the whole new level of European degeneracy. What can I say, Van Schaak, in reality, should abandon her "humanitarian law" activity and go back where she belongs--to being attorney for DUI cases in the Wanker County. But, as I am on record, Europe made a choice long time ago, let her enjoy it. 

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

He Has A Point...

... but in a very narrow sector of scenarios.  

Because he forgets to mention that in major powers' war even the most expensive air defense systems such as Aegis and coupled to it SM family of missiles are not designed for fighting in high-supersonic, let alone hypersonic, anti-shipping missiles' saturated environment. Salvo Model has good predictive powers, while SMO demonstrated what modern air-defense should be and the US is NOT in this game. Yes, drones and other flying cheap things do matter, but in real peer-to-peer competition targeting is provided by fusing an enormous data, including from space-based assets.   

In the end, there is always S1 and its newest and very cheap anti-drone missile Gvozd (Nail). 

Together with disruptive EW and anti-optronic systems widely used in SMO, the solution is already here and it was already demonstrated to an astonishing effectiveness in Syria when defending Khmeimim air base. But as I am on record, I doubt that the US (and the West) are capable of applying lessons to their AD and other weapon systems since... Well, I'll be talking about this in my next video.

Monday, November 21, 2022

Beth Van Schaak Lies...

... which is absolutely normal for her kind who are into whitewashing crimes against humanity and war crimes for State Department. And lying for the top US bureaucrats, especially from neocon infested State Department, is absolutely normal. Not to mention the fact, that many of them themselves are war criminals. In general, Ben Schaak is typical for American political shyster lawyer.  

While acknowledging concern over videos that showed Ukrainian forces executing captured Russian soldiers, the US war crimes envoy has argued that allegations against Kiev’s forces pale in comparison to Moscow’s alleged atrocities. “We are obviously tracking that quite closely,” Beth Van Schaack, US ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice, told reporters in a telephone briefing on Monday. “It’s really important to emphasize that the laws of war apply to all parties equally, both the aggressor state and the defender state, and this is in equal measure.” However, Van Schaack added, “when it comes to the war in Ukraine, that’s really where the equivalency ends. When we’re looking at the sheer scale of criminality exhibited by Russian forces, it’s enormous compared to the allegations that we have seen against Ukrainian forces.” The envoy also claimed that Kiev has dealt with allegations of wrongdoing more responsibly. “Russia inevitably responds with propaganda, denial, mis- and disinformation, whereas the Ukrainian authorities have generally acknowledged abuses and have denounced them and have pledged to investigate them,” she said.

Of course, being a shyster from organization which produced time after time one genocidal maniac after another--Madeline Albright and 50 US "diplomats" come to mind immediately--Van Schaak wouldn't last a minute under serious scrutiny against real war crimes lawyers from Russia, because she has nothing but PR BS and never opened in her life any Combat Manual of Russian Armed Forces (she wouldn't know the difference). But then again, for anyone with the pedigree in ICC on Yugoslavia, this must automatically disqualify them as, in best case scenario, liars or, in worst for them, war criminals themselves. But I digress.  

While Russian Combat Manuals (E.G. CM 2005) stress strict following of International Humanitarian Law (Article 24):

This creature, obviously, misses something larger than her pseudo-humanitarian activity and this is the fact that not only the names of those who executed Russian POWs (as well as of many Nazis US State Department supports and who committed well documented atrocities on industrial scale) are well known to Russians. But here are some news for this creature: Russian POWs were executed (there are many incidents of torture, maiming etc.) by the members of the 80th Brigade of VSU, which, surprise-surprise, was "taught" by the members of the USMC, who "taught this brigade to hate everything Russian" and "brainwashed them" (in Russian). It is now reported by all major Russian media and for me, personally, will be very easy to explain to this lawyer where this visceral Russophobia, from what sources, originates among US establishment and part of the military.  

The fact that US Marines haven't fought any serious enemy since Vietnam, not to mention the fact of "stellar" performance against Taliban, among other opponents, explains extremely well a severe case of Kubler-Ross transitions, when the whole USMC is forced to recognize that it is simply not a competitor against serious combined arms force. Don't listen to me, listen to Colonel Douglas MacGregor who exactly 10 years ago called US Marines exactly what they are in relation to even semi-serious, forget real, war with real opponents. Get a load of that:

Yeah, rah, rah and BSing is what the United States institutions have been involved since the collapse of the Soviet Union with. And it is one thing when some obscure Russian dude says it--totally another when former senior advisor of the Chief of Pentagon and decorated combat senior America officers says it. And says he does.

The capability to come ashore where the enemy is not present, then, move quickly with sustainable combat power great distances over land to operational objectives in the interior, is essential. The Marines cannot do it in any strategic setting where the opponent is capable (neither can the XVIII Airborne Corps!). The Marines cannot confront or defeat armored forces or heavy weapons in the hands of capable opponents. Nor can the Marines hold any contested battle space for more than a very short amount of time, after which the Marine raid or short stay ashore is completed. ... Clinging to the misguided, wasteful and self-defeating policies of occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan as justification for no change in the Army and Marine forces is not an argument. The policies, strategy and tactics were flawed, if not disastrous. Reenacting these operations is about as stupid as reenacting Tarawa, Market Garden or the airborne assault on Crete. In 110 days of fighting the German army in France during 1918, the U.S. Army Expeditionary Force sustained 318,000 casualties, including 110,000 killed in action. That’s the kind of lethality waiting for U.S. forces in a future war with real armies, air forces, air defenses and naval power.

Moreover, this was published in the US premier magazine, Time. As SMO demonstrated perfectly well, to the astonishment of Pentagon's top brass, what Russian force, initially three times smaller than VSU and its NATO "volunteer" corps, did is simply beyond fighting capabilities of not just USMC, but the US ground forces as such. The issue of facing a serious war, unlike the US experienced only in Korea, exacerbated by the not only Pentagon's (NATO) operational rigidness but a dramatic technological lag in some of the key aspects of the large combined arms operations, especially when stand off weaponry and air defense, among few other important things, are concerned, created a severe case of professional jealousy and one of those Kubler-Ross stages--a stage of anger. While US "diplomacy" today, as it exists, is primarily a butt of jokes around the world due to America's "diplomats" ignorance, incompetence and lack of general culture, militarily the United States continues to fall behind Russia in the arms race and already is ultimately incapable to take on either Russia or China, let alone both.

I can only imagine what toxic Russophobic atmosphere exists in some parts of the US Armed Forces, who, by the nature of their service, have to be aware and content with what is being done to the force as a whole turning it into the woke circus, and, of course, being aware of many myths of American military superiority being destroyed time after time by those damn sub-human Rooskies. It is not a healthy atmosphere and it is bound to manifest itself both deliberately and subconsciously in growing hatred for everything Russian, including Russian civilians. It is, in some bizarre sense, normal reaction, which does not make it right nonetheless. Russians just keep the score. And a huge arsenal of state-of-the-art stand-off weapons, together with increasing production of Air Defense systems and other military toys which, as I predicted years ago, completely devalued both technological and operational dimensions of the "American Way of War", which failed time after time even against weak opponents and which is not designed for real modern war against first rate enemy. Not to speak of the titanic existential struggle against the nation which is much older than the US and saw and defeated enemies, when adjusted for the factoring out nuclear deterrents, who would make the "finest fighting force in history" a rather timid challenge. What's left, then? Yes, hatred. 

Ask tortured to death, castrated, beheaded, raped, sold into slavery even crucified Russian soldiers and civilians in Chechnya in 1990s, ask innocent children of Beslan slaughtered under tacit approval of Western media and establishment. Today it is Nazi regime in Kiev. It is metaphysical and spiritual problem of the declining West and its relation to historic Russia, and of which some second rate lawyer from State Department simply has no grasp, nor morality and ethics to admit to herself that she and her "colleagues", culpable in millions of deaths of innocent people around the world, are supporting Nazism and that it is they who will be judged as criminals not just by the cruel court of history but, under some fairly likely circumstances, by the real court for war crimes and crimes against humanity. But then again, can you imagine trying to explain to a lawyer what the global balance of power is?

My Talking Head.

Something about state of play. 

Especially when many missed those additional funds for jet engines across the board for Russian commercial aviation.

Sunday, November 20, 2022

On A Lighter Note.

I will just leave it here to both enjoy and get informed for those here who do want or contemplate of getting into the Russian language. This is the girl! This is how you do it. 

Now, to famous Stolypin's "Give Russia 20 years of internal and external peace and quiet and it will change beyond recognition." This is Voronezh, being rebuilt second time after utter destruction in WW II and 1990s.  
It is a massive industrial and scientific center, with huge aerospace sector and other machine building strategic plants. It is also known for its football club "Fakel" (yes, it reads and is pronounced as Fuckel) meaning Torch. And there were some minor issues with this club's potential participation in international soccer games under such a name. So, enjoy.

Sure, Sure, Mr. Austin. In Related News...

 ... there are some issues with basic arithmetic operations--you know, basic counting--with many a top US brass.  

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has lauded Russia’s armed forces and weaponry on Saturday – but added, however, that such military might has not enabled Moscow to achieve victory in the Ukraine conflict. “You know, the Russians have a massive military and impressive weapons,” but this “hasn’t helped them prevail in a campaign of conquest and cruelty,” Austin claimed, speaking at the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada on Saturday. According to the official, “it’s about the cause,” as well as “those who fight for it.” The secretary of defense went on to praise President Joe Biden for rallying “nations of goodwill” against Russia’s attempts to “redraw borders by force.” Austin also said the US will stand by Ukraine as long as the conflict lasts, insisting that the outcome will “determine the course of global security in this young century.” He added, however, that NATO will not be dragged into what he described as the “worst crisis in [European] security since the end of the Second World War,” unless Moscow attacks one of its member states.

But then again, there is a school of thought, and I mean it, that views Vietnam and even Afghanistan as the American victories. But the fact that "massive military" of Russia didn't even engage in Ukraine goes somehow missing in the top political echelon in the US, same as the fact of Russian forces from the inception of SMO being outnumbered. Not to mention the fact of Russia "running out of" missiles, ammo, tanks, what have you, non-stop since March. 

Of course, we all understand that all these grandiose statements from the West are mere smoke and mirrors which show a complete loss of a plot, since all Western "plans" on Russia's military and economic defeat fell through, precisely due to Western "planners" inability to count, calculate and learn. So, now Austin, as well as other top American bureaucrats need to somehow save face by means of:

1. Restating their desire to avoid the direct conflict with Russia;

2. In the same time continue to support their beloved Nazis in Kiev.

3. Somehow, deal with unfolding economic calamity. Somehow, they don't know how. 

Dmitry Medvedev didn't mince any words yesterday:

“Everyone is tired of the Kiev regime. Especially of the neurotic Zelensky, who is constantly whipping up tensions, whining, sniveling and extorting more and more money and weapons handouts. [He] acts like a hysterical child with developmental problems,” Medvedev stated. Fatigue with Kiev and its actions is prompting the collective West to “push” Ukraine into talks with Russia, the deputy head of the nation’s Security Council continued. “The US, NATO and the European Union do not want a complete rupture with Russia, risking a third world [war]. Hence, the frequent attempts to rein in Kiev and bring it to its senses, to push it to negotiate,” Medvedev wrote. By refusing to talk with Russia, Zelensky is actually pursuing much more mundane and selfish goals, Medvedev suggested. He added that “if [Zelensky] does not accept the reality of Ukraine's collapse, it is pointless to sit down at the [negotiating] table. And if [he] does accept it – he will be taken out by his own nationalists, who are intertwined with the army top brass.” 

Pretty self-evident, but if not a complete rupture, but something very near to it already has happened between Russia and the combined West. While the "status" of the United States as the existential enemy of Russia was clear since the end of WW II, it is a new paradigm for, say, France and Germany being viewed by Russians as existential enemies of Russian people and this is the only way EU and its two most important constituents MUST be viewed and acted upon. In other words, Russia has to navigate here between Scylla and Harybdis of necessity to have Europe more or less stable, while making sure that both France, Germany (obviously, UK) are reduced to mere regional military powers without ability to generate any kind of credible threat to Russia. Russian-American dialogues is a different matter--these are relations between two major players, while lapdogs must be removed from the room. 

Pepe wrote an excellent piece for The Saker's Blog on such a matter: 

It is safe to say that the G20 may have plunged into an irretrievable path toward irrelevancy. Even before the current Southeast Asian summit wave – in Phnom Penh, Bali and Bangkok – Lavrov had already signaled what comes next when he noted that “over a dozen countries” have applied to join BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). Iran, Argentina, and Algeria have formally applied: Iran, alongside Russia, India, and China, is already part of the Eurasian Quad that really matters. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Afghanistan are extremely interested in becoming members. Indonesia just applied, in Bali. And then there’s the next wave: Kazakhstan, UAE, Thailand (possibly applying this weekend in Bangkok), Nigeria, Senegal, and Nicaragua. It’s crucial to note that all of the above sent their Finance Ministers to a BRICS Expansion dialogue in May. A short but serious appraisal of the candidates reveals an astonishing unity in diversity. Lavrov himself noted that it will take time for the current five BRICS to analyze the immense geopolitical and geoeconomic implications of expanding to the point of virtually reaching the size of the G20 – and without the collective west.

My only disagreement with Pepe's otherwise superb piece is the use of a meaningless GDP metric. US GDP IS NOT $23 trillion, never was, it is at best, in real terms, half of that. Not to mention this ever critical issue of the structure of the national economy. By far more important tangibles than abstract dollar figures define the size and complexity of any economy in the foundation of which are natural and human resources and industrial capacity, physical economy that is. 

Here are, again, just a couple of critical metrics defining the actual state of play. They changed in 2022 insignificantly, except, and you may have guessed it--for Europe. 

This one is even more important:

If you are in the top 5-6 in this table, you WILL have industrial development, you will have advanced aerospace programs, advanced militaries and a decent standard of living. Do you see any European country there? There you go. So, expect final, annual (12 Mo) industries, from steel, to energy, to machines, reports in January 2023 and you will see yourself this funny dynamics. So, this is your Sunday's primer. 

Saturday, November 19, 2022

Saturday, Open Thread...

Here is a combination of a true Slavic beauty and musical talent by wonderful Ilona Skowronska from Poland. 


Friday, November 18, 2022

NYT, Again.

But before I continue with NYT, something about execution of 10 Russian POWs by Nazis. Don't get too emotional, by now one has to develop a degree of the thick skin and understand that the use of the term Nazi is not some kind of propaganda hyperbole. Kiev regime is Nazi regime as are people in the West who support it. So, executing civilians, POWs, torturing them, raping etc. is a normal operational procedure for them, especially for a significant strata of military-political-media top in Washington and London. Many of them are sadists and psychopaths and many of them sincerely want many Russians, preferably all of them, dead. They tacitly applaud any kind of atrocity committed against Russians and want even more. There are many people like this in intel community and in Pentagon. This is a hard cold fact of life. I will omit here elaboration on psychological reasons for that in the West (a lot of it has to do with West's decline, especially militarily), as per Kiev--this is what they do, war crimes and crimes against humanity. 

Accidentally, now a part of this reason and growing West's desperation which is a result of sheer ignorance. 

The New York Times on Friday offered four possible explanations as to how Russia was able to launch a massive missile salvo against Ukraine this week, after the government in Kiev, the Pentagon and the British intelligence have spent months insisting Moscow’s stockpiles were running low. Ukraine claimed last month that Russia had used up 70% of its prewar missile reserves, the Times noted, while the British Defense Ministry said the October 10 strike against Ukrainian infrastructure was “likely to constrain their ability to strike the volume of targets they desire in future.” Tuesday’s strike, which the Times described as the “biggest aerial attack” of the conflict so far, featuring 96 missiles, “raises questions about how much Russia’s arsenal may be depleted and whether Moscow will endure by finding alternative sources of weapons.” One explanation comes from the Pentagon, which had claimed that Russia was running out of missiles as early as May. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday that Russia was “reaching out” to Iran and North Korea to replenish its ammunition stocks, though the Pentagon itself has publicly said otherwise. Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang have all denied this, however. Meanwhile, the US has reportedly been trying to buy artillery ammunition for Kiev from South Korea.

As I already stated many times--the last one being yesterday--average US "journo" from establishment media in the US is semi-literate moron. Some of those morons have Ph.Ds in "journalism" and "communications", others--in political pseudo-science. In other words, using Dunning-Kruger model--it is impossible to explain to most people who graduated all kinds of such "programs", and those who teach those, from the average Western university, that they are ignorant because they are ignorant. They do not know real history, especially of the 20th century, neither do most professors who teach it, they do not understand real economy and how it operates, they have zero clue about real warfare. As the result, despite my, and others, warning since 2013-14 about the US not understanding what it is getting itself into with Ukraine, most military-political-media and business top brass in the US wanted... to kill Russians and destroy Russia. 

Now, as I am also on record--no American servicemen ever fought real large, including modern combined arms, war against very serious, sometimes superior, enemy in defense of his (her) home, period. Russians do it for 1000+ years. Because of that, even when you are well-educated and experienced American soldier, it is still very difficult, not impossible, though, to grasp the intricacies of real war economy, especially when you have been taught "economics" as is taught in the West. Get any top RAND honcho (probably former general) talk to Russian counterpart and you can easily observe how this RAND guy will melt away when faced with substantive issues of arsenals for serious war. Emphasis on "serious". And this is just one example. In other words, American military experiences do not apply to Russia in general. Hence, even when having proper information, many in the US analytical orgs, let alone such toilet paper as NYT fail to grasp basic facts. They do not have skills.

Just a demonstration. In the open, across the whole world. March 2018. 

Начальник Генштаба Валерий Герасимов заявил, что опыт операции в Сирии дал новый импульс совершенствованию системы комплексного поражения противника. МОСКВА, 24 марта. /ТАСС/. Группировки носителей крылатых ракет большой дальности воздушного и морского базирования созданы в РФ на всех стратегических направлениях. Об этом сообщил глава Генштаба ВС - первый замминистра обороны России Валерий Герасимов.

Translation: Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov said that the experience of the operation in Syria gave a new impetus to the improvement of the system of complex destruction of the enemy MOSCOW, 24 March. /TASS/. Groups of carriers of long-range air and sea-based cruise missiles have been created in the Russian Federation in all strategic directions. This was announced by the head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces - First Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia Valery Gerasimov.  

This was four and a half years ago. Now, get an average dumb-ass from NYT, WaPo, Politico or MSNBC, among many others, or some Patton-worshiping West-Point graduate,  and try to explain to him-her-they-those-it-this what it means when Gerasimov makes such statements. Well, you will need to start from demolishing two founding myths of 20th century America, namely that:

1. While America's contribution to the victory in WW II against Hitler (not Japan--here the US did really well, but it was a different kind of war) was significant, many will have to live the fact that despite importance of the Lend-Lease, USSR produced most of its weapons on its own. While doing so, it annihilated 80% of Axis (in reality combined Europe's) forces, creme de la' creme, on its own. In other words, Soviet industrial capacity was immense even in the war time. In general, the US doesn't know real Russian 20th century history.

2. Modern Russia's economy is not only NOT the size of the economy, whatever that means, of Netherlands, but it is much larger than industrial economy of Germany, let alone France, let alone UK. And then one has to explain that Russia practically is 100% independent in her weapons manufacturing, not to mention producing en masse weapons systems of which Pentagon can only dream about.


If you succeed making these two points, there are many more, you may also explain that as early as 2015 and 2016 the number, however speculative, because most of it is secret, of Russia's production of the stand-off weapons, namely 3M14 Kalibr and X-101 cruise missiles family was running something on the order of, depending on the source anywhere from 30 a month to 60 per quarter. Even if we assume the more modest number of 60 per quarter, even WITHOUT well documented and publicized dramatic increase of manufacturing as early as 2016, we still get this number: 4 quarters per year x 7 years x 60 missiles per quarter = 28 x 60 = 1,680 missiles of Kalibr and X-101 family at a minimum. But we also know that production was dramatically increased with practically all massive Russia's military-industrial complex plant working three shifts every day since January at least. 


My personal estimate of 3M14 and X-101 number alone--I do not count other types such as widely used P-800 Onyx, let alone Iskander--is about at least 2,500 and Russia still maintains most of it untouched, in case she has to face off with NATO proper. When you begin to add here all kinds of other stand off weapons, including very useful X-55s and X-22 and X-32. Oh boy, you are looking at massive arsenal of stand off weapons alone. I know, for NYT it comes as a surprise, but then again, they probably still think that NYC is not a shithole but a great city. You cannot address the provincialism of American "creative" class. And here we are, with these people unable to do a simple arithmetic. That is why they couldn't wrap their brains around the Russian rationale behind letting go of INF Treaty, of which I wrote non-stop in 2018-2019. Russians tacitly applauded the removal of all constrains on emerging dramatic superiority in quality and quantity of Russian stand off missile systems--the fact the US obviously failed to grasp. 


Notice? I didn't even count here already used to an astonishing effect hypersonic Kinzhal, nor this teeny-weeny fact of Russian MoD signing a week ago the additional contract for 3M22 Zircon, which is several dozens of additional missiles (in Russian), with this additional contract to be completed in 2023. Now count yourself how many were in the original 2021 contract--100, 120, 150? I wrote three books on military-economic and operational issues. Obviously nobody in NYT or WaPo reads those, albeit I am very pleased that a serious political quarterly American Affairs DID take a note:

But this is not Martyanov’s core critique, which is that the American military is simply not tailored to the needs of today’s world. It is structured for incursions against much weaker opponents—such as Iraq in 1991 and 2003. But it is not in a position of strength when faced with a peer that can compete in terms of troop deployment and firepower. Critical in this respect is America’s continued reliance on aircraft carriers to project power across the globe. “The American super-carrier died as a viable weapon system designed for modern war with the arrival of the long-range supersonic anti-shipping missile,” Martyanov writes. This renders “the 100,000-ton displacement mastodons of the US Navy obsolete and very expensive sacrificial lambs in any real war. Modern Russian hypersonic missiles such as the Mach-9 capable aero-ballistic Kinzhal have a range of 2000 kilometres and are not interceptable by existing US anti-missile systems.” In fact, if an advanced enemy decided to sink a U.S. carrier battle group, it could do so with the push of a few buttons. These missiles cost a few million dollars to make in countries, like Russia, with low labor costs. A carrier battle group, by contrast, costs about $30 billion and has around 6,700 hands on deck. Martyanov seems genuinely concerned that the Pentagon does not recognize the scale of this problem and could deploy a carrier battle group against a competitive peer in the near future. The enormous, immediate losses that would result might force the United States to use nuclear weapons in response.

Yes, my main concern is not some Russian rah-rah to counter American one, albeit it may come across like this sometimes. My main concern always was and is that our new adopted home would commit, again, a cardinal sin of getting involved with the country--Russia--whose real economic, military and other massive capacities across the board remain completely hidden by non-stop propaganda from illiterate, war-mongering and uncultured "top", such as completely discredited, incompetent and malicious US establishment media, who are culpable in the murder of millions of people around the world by the US because they long ago lost any semblance of even basic morality. The latest from NYT proves it again. You neither can teach nor reason with them. In the end, you don't have to. You just keep the score.