Andrei Raevsky...

 ... sadly, closes off The Saker with his comments. Watch. 

Thank you, Andrei. Hope you will reconsider at some point of time.
 

Around The Net. Andrei Raevsky...

 ... wrote a superb piece on "Suicide by Cop". Strongly suggest to read it. Especially this:

It is, however, Putin’s job to protect Russia and the people of Russia.  By pushing the Ukrainians towards more and more dangerous provocations the Neocons were fully aware that they were pushing the Ukrainians into a type of “suicide by bear” folly. The sad truth is that Russia was given no other option than to do that which the Ukrainian people could not (or would not) do: denazify the Ukraine.  And since the Ukraine could not be denazified, it had to be disarmed.

Also my friend Mike Krupa talks to my other friend Larry Johnson 

Enjoy.

Andrei Raevsky Posted...

... about "dirty bomb".  

While zombies like Brandon and his “genius” VP are clueless about any of that, there must be at least a few folks in the Pentagon or the letter soup agencies who understand the simple fact that the way things look now, the Hegemony has three options:

• Be defeated
• Declare victory and leave (same deal, just with a tiny fig leaf for modesty)
• Commit suicide by attacking Russia directly

Not very good perspectives.  So here is one more: how about creating total chaos and hope that something advantageous comes out of it?  In other words, while setting off a dirty bomb will do nothing in purely military terms (it sure won’t stop the Russian military), it will create such a huge political reaction that the current situation will turn into total chaos, panic, rumors, lies, etc.

Read Andrei's excellent dissection of the whole "optics" strategy of neocons. It always was about optics. And the issue of hate fits very well with Larch's summary:

Correct analysis. But a simpleton suggestion about Ukraine staying neutral could have avoided the war. Ukraine by construct, development, inducement and process could only be what it is, a proxy suicide bomb of 40 million lost souls thrown against the Russian military. They embrace the task. They seek the rich rewards for their leaders who press forward with the suicide. They use every Slavic cell in their body to seek death as they try to kill Russians. Ukraine had zero interest to its core and against its survival instinct in being neutral. The very last thing on a list of a million things would be for them to choose neutrality. This is European wishful thinking. It is the illogic that pervades Europe.

This is also how hatred becomes a strategic factor.

Damn, This Hurricane.

Andrei Raevsky posted a very sad message. 

My house flooded and basically totaled. I won’t be blogging for a while. Please keep me and my family in your prayers. Will try to keep you posted.

This is really bad. I hope Saker's house is properly covered. Larry, on the other hand, got off relatively easy.

I was unable to post anything last night or moderate comments because of Hurricane Ian. I live just south of Tampa, Florida. We were on the north edge of the hurricane. Not a bad place to be compared to those poor folks on the south side. I lost power (but had a generator) and the internet and cell phone service disappeared. It was a back to the future moment. There was a time when we lived quite contentedly without the internet and social media. Power came back on at 1530 hours edt today. Now I am back online. Here’s a brief video chronology of my adventure. We were spared flooding and significant wind damage. Friends and colleagues south of me fared worse. They were hammered. My only suffering was not being able to communicate with you in a timely manner. My apologies.

But there is no doubt that this Ian Hurricane just a wrecker. 

A day after making landfall in Florida, Hurricane Ian was downgraded to a tropical storm early Thursday, but it regained strength and is now a hurricane again as it approaches the South Carolina coast.According to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Ian’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph, just above the minimum for hurricane strength. The Category 1 storm, now located 240 miles south of Charleston, S.C., could "strengthen a little" before it makes landfall in South Carolina. The current forecast track has Ian making landfall somewhere between Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach on Friday afternoon.

This is a horrible situation. But that is the threat southern Eastern Seaboard of the US lived under for many-many years. Sad.

Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) Sent A Message...

Andrei, as you all know, took a much needed break, a vacation, to rest and clear his mind, but he sends messages once in a while. This one is today and it is a good one. He gives some bullet points and in one of them he writes:

It is now also undeniable that what began as a special military operation (SMO) has now turned into a open and full-scale war between the consolidated West (aka the Anglo-Zionist Empire) and Russia: the Empire has now “hit” Russia with everything it had short of a direct military attack.  The (originally 200’000+ strong) Ukrainian military, arguably the strongest NATO military force (which is otherwise mostly composed of small and thoroughly woked-out “parade militaries”!), especially with the full support of the West (intelligence, weapons, money, political, etc. etc. etc.) is being “demilitarized” and “denazified” by a vastly superior Russian military force (but not one bigger in size: Russia has used only a fraction of her full military power).  The outcome here is not in doubt.

Read the whole thing at The Saker's blog. It is a good write up, good summary. 

Andrei Raevsky With A Broadside.

The Saker also had it with BS which passes for "military analysis" in the US and fired a broadside both military and metaphysical. 

I bumped into a Foxnews propaganda piece featuring a clown which, apparently, in some very distant past was a US Lt. General in the USA military, his last name is Kellogg.  I decided to give it a try and I have to say that I sat absolutely *transfixed* listening to him: according to him, Russia has already suffered a huge defeat at the hands of the Ukronazis and with NATO’s help the Ukraine can, and probably will, win this war. And both that “general” and the presstitute “interviewing” him delivered that crock of shit with great gravitas and appropriate facial expressions (angled eyebrows, the way the journos try to look very sincere).  I was expecting at least one of them to burst out laughing but, no, of course not. These two simply lack both the brain and the humor to realize how terminally stupid and ridiculous they both sound. As I have written many times in the past, US generals are much more “corporate CEO in combat fatigues” than real combat officers.  By Russian standards this guy would not even be allowed to clean latrines in a construction battalion.  A man who says with a straight face that delivering 20 Soviet era aircraft or S-300 to the Ukrainians will make a difference in this war is either a clueless civilian or a deliberate liar prostituting his (putative and now former) officer’s honor for a few bucks.

Read the whole piece, albeit I have a little disagreement with Voloshin's (I love Russian Symbolism poetry, Alexander Blok being my most favorite) poem application here because as I am on record (and not me only) for a long time--the bacilli of Nazism and exceptionalism spread widely in Ukraine and I, personally, will have any pity towards Ukrainian POWs only after they are cleared of war crimes. While there is no doubt that the bulk of those has been committed by Nazi and Territorial formations, VSU are by no means angels. There is an extensive record of them committing a variety of atrocities ranging from simple robbery to shelling Donbass civilians WITHOUT any coercion from Nazi element. Let SK, FSB and LDNR security deal with them first. 

But most importantly, it may take generation if not many generations to deal with fanatical Russophobia widely present among many Ukrainians who are not even from original Banderistan in Western Ukraine but many were and are regular 404 civilians, who will continue to be the bearers of the most extreme nationalistic views and will continue to hate. Hence second political objective of the Special Military Operation--denazification. That will require more than just demolishing Nazi infrastructure in Ukraine, it requires a complete rethinking and even reconstituting of Ukraine before long term treatment could be applied. Overwhelming majority of the Ukrainian youth NOT from Donbass has been brought up as radical fanatics and sympathizers of Nazi ideas. Regular POW grunts of VSU are already treated under Geneva convention, they are well fed, provided with medical help, have places to sleep and are working already on clearing Donbass and Southern Ukraine's liberated towns and cities. 

This massive magnificent building in Baku, known as Government House was finished after the WW II and everyone in Baku knew that it was finished by German POWs who worked in construction. It is a good example of how POWs can contribute to what they destroy. Not in Baku's case, of course, since Wehrmacht never made it to Baku, but many objects in the Soviet Union after the war have been restored by POWs. This is what takes place now in liberated territories in Ukraine. Those ukie POWs who will be cleared will be let go home, to their families. The rest, will see... 

 

My talking head today:

Also touches on similar topics.

Andrei Raevsky Did a Very Good Write-Up On Fundamentals.

Of actual framework for ground operations, should they come, in LDNR zone by VSU.  A very worthy article, which gives clear definition of relation of forces in a classic offense-defense dichotomy. 

Okay, there is a lot of “bean counting” going on comparing the VSU (Ukie) forces and LDNR forces.  As with all bean counting, this is nonsensical from a military point of view.  I cannot write up a detail lecture here, but I want to point out a few key military concepts. Counting the forces along the line of contact (aka ” Forward Line of Own Troops” (FLOT) or “Forward Edge of Battle Area” (FEBA)) makes no sense since military forces do not attack “full front”.  You might have heard the rule of thumb (no more than just that!!) that you need a force ratio of about 3:1 in favor of an attacking force to overcome the enemy defenses.  As all rules of thumb, this is not quite true, but it useful because it brings in the notion of concentration of forces along the main axis/axes of attack.

Here is Andrei's opening broadside which makes it necessary to read the whole article. Andrei also writes about Russia's Black Sea Fleet. This Fleet today started its exercises with 20 ships, subs and vessels--just in case--to remind NATO that the Black Sea is Russia's internal lake de facto or, if one wishes, Russia's own barrel with fish swimming in it, which creates what is known as target rich environment.  RT (using a dramatic music) has shown today some of the ships of the Fleet setting sail to the open sea. 

My estimates of the first salvo by ships and subs only of the Fleet (I don't count Fleet's attached units ground-based systems) is anywhere between 70 to 80 both anti-shipping and land-attack cruise missiles, albeit the issue of anti-shipping (Sea Denial) role can easily be assigned to primarily land-based Bastions which control all of the Black Sea. So, there you go. As you know the US today has given written response to Russia, which Lavrov said he wouldn't make public on the request of the US side but he says public will know the essence of those responses.

Andrei Raevsky Wrote A Really Good Piece...

On Putin-Biden's summit and he covers many, otherwise overlooked points of this whole 404 "crisis". This point is especially important, when trying to understand the "logic" (or lack thereof) behind US actions. 

US position: first, and above all else, the White House needs to avoid giving the appearance that Russia and the USA are negotiating on an equal footing.  This desire to maintain an appearance of superiority is made even harder by the stark reality which shows that far from being equal, Russia is the stronger party in this negotiation, and by a big margin at that (militarily of course, but also socially, politically and economically).  This is the key to the USA’s dilemma: how do you negotiate with a stronger opponent while maintaining the appearance of your own (non-existing) superiority?

So, just read the whole thing--it is full of many valuable insights. 

Some Issues Of Numbers.

I wrote yesterday a piece exclusively for Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) where I address some issues re: the salvo of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in case NATO decides to "fight". I don't think that this scenario is likely but just in case, here are some conclusions by me:

...there is plenty of subsonic, supersonic and hypersonic goodness to spread around by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet alone and competent people in Pentagon know this. That is why the appearance of those two US destroyers in the Black Sea is, literally, for the appearance primarily and for trying to collect some intel for what seems today a diminishing probability of confrontation in Donbass. I often write that many people in the US, and I am talking about policy-makers, cannot grasp the scale of the America’s trailing Russia in fire power in all domains. It is not just quantitative; it is qualitative and the gap only continues to widen. But I warned about it for years, didn’t I?

Andrei Raevsky titled (correctly) my piece: Why It Is Not Advised. It is a symptomatic title since today, as if he read my books amd recent writings, Colonel Douglas Macgregor penned a piece for The American Conservative which has a title: Facing the Facts of War with Russia. The Biden administration appears willing to get us into a fight we’re not ready for. I was calling on the US political elites to face the facts for many years now. Now American senior officer, a real professional, with reputation for realistic view of the world outside writes today:

If Russian military power prevails, President Biden’s promise of support means U.S. or Allied NATO air or ground forces may intervene to rescue the Ukrainians from defeat. In Europe, U.S. Army and Marine ground forces are too weak to intervene 500 miles east of the Polish border, even if reinforced in a timely manner by armored brigades. None of NATO’s ground forces are ready to cope with Russia’s BM-30 SMERCH Rocket Artillery Formations. Rockets fired from just five of Russia’s BM-30 SMERCH rocket launchers can devastate an area the size of New York City’s Central Park (843 acres, or 3.2 square miles) in minutes. Thus, if U.S. and allied forces do intervene, they are likely to do so with air assets. How effective Russian integrated air defenses will be is unknown, but it would be ill-advised to underestimate the impact of Russian IADs with phased array radars. Some of the newest air defense systems—like the Russian S-500—are so capable that many U.S. Defense officials privately worry that even warplanes like the F-22, F-35, and the B-2 risk destruction if they attempt to penetrate them.

Macgregor makes one small mistake though. Russia does not need S-500 to close off the skies over Ukraine. The line of modern S-series AD complexes, ranging from S-400 of AD forces to S-300V series of army specific (troops) AD and down to Buk-M3 and Tor-M2--are all integrated into flexible and well-protected network which has NO problem detecting, tracking and shooting down any target, be that small UAV or the most stealthiest aircraft or missile. Plus, of course, if shit hits the fan, Russian Air Force has enough assets to challenge any US air assets, the ones which will survive strikes at air field and bases. 

But this is not what really is important in Macgregor's piece, most important is his corroboration of what I am writing and warning non-stop: the US is nuclear-biased and will initiate nuclear exchange because what is expecting US troops in case of the United States directly intervening into a possible conflict in Ukraine, is the level of human and materiel losses US Armed Forces never experienced in their history. Macgregor, essentially, agrees:

Since prevailing winds in Eastern Europe would spread nuclear fallout across Russia and Central Asia all the way to Korea, the Russian use of nuclear weapons is very unlikely—unless of course, U.S. forces use so-called “tactical nuclear weapons,” which would trigger Russian escalation to the strategic nuclear level with ominous consequences for planet Earth. However, virtually all U.S. and allied military installations, from Estonia to Spain, will be within range of Russian Kalibr Cruise Missiles carrying 1,000 pound, high explosive, conventional warheads.

As I am on record constantly--the United States never fought a war with its Command and Control system under the relentless sustained fire impact and its rear attacked and disorganized. Conventionally, the United States cannot win against Russia in Europe, at least Eastern part of it and Biden Admin better wake up to the reality that it may, indeed, not survive any kind of escalation and, in fact, modern Kalibrs, 3M14Ms, as a matter of fact, have a range of a 4,500 kilometers, as well as 5,000+ kilometer range of X-101 cruise missiles, which will have no issues with penetrating North American airspace when launched by Russia's strategic bombers without even leaving the safety of Russia's airspace.

It is good that Douglas Macgregor goes on record in this case and underscores the fact that Russia can and will, God forbids it comes to this, win conventionally, while the United States loses even in a nuclear conflict. But then again, in this case we all lose. Conveying this reality that the US has no good options against Russia is very important, especially to those people in current admin who have no clue about modern war and how it is fought--and that is the overwhelming majority of the US elites. I don't want to end up being prophetic about the events which I am desperately trying to prevent. Having opinion of such a heavyweight as Douglas Macgregor being very similar to mine helps enormously. 

In related news, Ukrainian clown worries:

A spokesperson for Ukraine’s president say's they've been trying to talk to Russia’s Vladimir Putin about the build-up of Russian troops on the border, but Putin isn't taking the call.

Poor, poor baby. He ain't seen nothing yet. When Russia begins a real build-up of Russian troops, he better be sure he has his jet fueled and ready to go in Borispol airport in Kiev. But this is just in case if he obliges and carries out his orders from his handlers in Washington. He still thinks that the United States is this "the finest fighting force in history", well, he may learn soon enough the real situation if he is not cautious. As Peskov today responded to Blinken's threats about "consequences" (in Russian) almost in Fulbright's manner, that constant threatening with consequences and "paying a price" completely devalues those threats. Recall:

“It is simply not necessary for us to go around forever proclaiming: ‘I am the greatest!’ The more one does this sort of thing, in fact, the more people doubt it….” 

The United States simply exceeded a bragging limit. 

P.S. Today is 60th Anniversary since this guy and those backward Russian peasants launched first human in space. 

I am sure in woke America this will be viewed as "white privilege" and as being very racist.

Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) Wrote A Review.

Excellent one at that. You can read it either on his web resource or at Unz Review. 

Well, you can think of Martyanov’s books like the perfect example of a “Zone B book”: not only does Martyanov debunk most of the myths of the US propaganda machine, he contrasts these delusions with examples from the real world. 

I am profoundly grateful for Andrei's excellent piece. When read at Unz his review also is accompanied by commentaries by different visitors of Unz, which provide an excellent illustration to why any serious attempt to change the angle at the world at large and at history is bound to fail in the US whose public intellect today is constrained by a very few narratives, most of which dominate public mind and are utterly false from any scientific or common sense point of view. Even among people who do feel and experience many things going wrong in the United States. Andrei also makes an excellent point:

I would also add that those Russians who write books and articles desperately trying to warn the people of the US of real catastrophe taking place do that not because they are hostile to the United States, but precisely because they are sympathetic to the people of the US. The flag-waving pseudo-patriots who accuse these Russians of being “anti-American” simply don’t understand the “evil Russians” they hate so much (mostly because modern Russia under Putin has been fantastically successful, in spite of sanctions, threats, subversion, etc., while the US is in agony – that is why these folks are willing to believe anything bad, no matter how self-evidently stupid, about Russia and/or Putin).  

I recently pointed out that how can I experience a schadenfreude about a demolition of the county which was out home for more than 25 years? One has to be a complete mental and moral case to enjoy that. Yet, there is no denial that US "elites" betrayed Americans who do constitute the load bearing structure of this country. I have no pity to the swamp. And here is one thing which is worth paying attention to. Recent gender identity poll conducted by Ipsos revealed this: 

Among Generation Z and millennials, women are slightly more likely than men to say they are equally attracted to both sexes (14% vs. 9%), while men are more likely to say they are attracted only to the same (11% vs. 6%) or opposite (65% vs. 51%) sex. Nonetheless, the majority men and women in this younger cohort says they are only attracted to the opposite sex.   

These are terrifying numbers for Generation Z. The generation on which the future of the country depends. Make your own conclusion. I will continue about Soft Power in coming days related to this unfolding tragedy. Yet, I would never have expected that my latest book which is yet to be released is already a number one release (on Amazon) in a category I never considered myself an expert--Political Economy. What do ya know. 

The book hit yesterday respectable numbers not far from the top 3,000 books nationally and it is a surprise for me, considering a gigantic US book market. A pleasant one, albeit, I am sure, in coming weeks the main question which will be asked of me (actually, already) is: what are your suggestions to us, "deplorables"? What can we do? My answer to it is extremely simple: right now, practically, very little but you can start with educating yourself. It is not easy but it must be done. As Russian military saying goes: if you are warned, that means you are armed(c).

The Saker's Review Of My Latest Book.

Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) wrote today a review on my book. You are welcome to participate in discussion. 

This year it is my immense pleasure to review his latest book “The (real) Revolution in Military Affairs“. Let me immediately say that you do not have to read the first book to greatly enjoy the second one, but I still do think that the best “combo” to get a full picture would be to read both books in the order they were published. Still, today I will review only the second book.

I am sure it could be an interesting discussion.