To Those Who Worry About "Optics".

I am talking about the assassination of military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky. 

An explosion that rocked the ‘Street Bar’ café in St. Petersburg, Russia on Sunday has claimed at least one life and left 19 people injured, authorities reported. Vladlen Tatarsky (real name Maksim Fomin), a military correspondent and blogger, was killed in the incident, according to emergency services. Tatarsky joined the Donbass militias back in 2014 in the wake of the Maidan coup in Kiev. He has since become known in Russia as a blogger and a correspondent reporting on the situation in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Tatarsky has also authored several books. 

Before lamenting "bad optics" and jumping to the conclusions, including knee jerk reaction--how predictable--and calls for "flattening Kiev", how about letting FSB deal with it first. Secondly, and most important, before anyone starts comparing late Daria Dugina to this "blogger", they better get acquainted with his biography, including why he ended up in prison for robbery. But for people in the West who sympathize with early LDNR militias it must be understood that apart from heroism and dedication, corruption, money laundering and other unsightly things have been blooming in LDNR too. With the start of SMO, a huge number of military "correspondents" and bloggers, many of them originally from new Russia's oblasts, started to dominate "narratives", especially through TG channels. 

What many forget that among those "patriots", many, including Tatarsky, have been involved in large money collection operations "for the front", and that once Russia started to tighten the noose around those "operations" the "feeding base" for this type of "activists" shrank dramatically. I omit here the fact that most of those "bloggers" and "voenkors" have zero military education and many are what Saker called them a "sixth column", and many are straight defeatists or, like low lives Sladkov or Podolyaka, are completely off the rails.  Tatarsky fits perfectly this very same group, which has some serious issues between them in terms of monetary issues--competition. So, keep this fact in mind and, please, stop idealizing LDNR, where even today the remnants of the "old guard" are being removed due to their corruption and inability to get incorporated into Russia's administrative structures--a "heritage" of Ukraine. There is a reason why I do not read TG channels and bloggers, unless people ask to react, except for official TGs (e.g. Ministry of Foreign Affairs), or get information from people whom I know as extremely reliable, honest and professional. 

Now to by far more important things. Per this:

Washington should respect decisions made by the Russian authorities in accordance with the nation’s own laws and international obligations, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday. The two discussed the arrest of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich, who was charged with espionage in Russia earlier this week. Gershkovich was “caught red handed” trying to obtain state secrets under the guise of journalism, Lavrov told Blinken in a phone call, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Moscow also informed the US Embassy about his arrest “through an established procedure,” the statement added. Russia considers it unacceptable that Washington officials and the US media are trying to hype this case and portray it as political, the foreign minister said.

It is really difficult to say that one is a "journalist", when one is caught with special equipment, in Russia they believe it is of NSA, not of CIA, origin, especially when depositing this equipment into hidden place not far from serious military plant. This is now between FSB and appropriate intel organizations in the US. Blinken can demand whatever he wants, but he was politely told by Lavrov to go pound sand. Now, "mighty" British military finally says what I have been saying all along since the start of SMO--for the West it is a reputational disaster. While British Army lieutenant-colonel Crawford describes Challenger tanks as something out of the 23 century and having anti-gravity drive, invisibility cloak and blasters--you would expect this kind of BS from British officer--he admits:

We should also be aware that the Russians will be very keen to destroy or capture one or more of the western tanks being operated by the UkrAF.Imagine the propaganda coup of a captured, intact Challenger 2 being paraded in Red Square in Moscow! It doesn’t bear thinking about. But let us not denigrate the UK’s contribution to Ukraine’s armoured fighting vehicle inventory too much. Challenger 2 is a capable and powerful weapon system which will make a difference.

Somebody should remind this colonel that he is an amateur in tank warfare compared to even tank company commander from LDNR units, not to speak of the battalion or brigade level of Russian tank force operating T-90M, and that the survival rate of ANY western tank in 404 is near zero. Moreover, he should really review catastrophic reputational losses of NATO weapon systems when used in REAL war. And yes, I can sense hedging here, because Russians will get those Leopards and Challengers and they will parade them for the whole world to see. Meanwhile this lieutenant-colonel should apply for Russia's Frunze Combined Arms Warfare Academy (War College), if he passes basic entrance exams on officer level, maybe they will give him a review of real modern tank warfare. 

As Larry pointed out:

If you are looking for proof why the British military is a third rate organization that could not last a week on the battlefields of Ukraine, look no further than Colonel Richard Kemp, a columnist for the Daily Telegraph. According to Wiki, “Colonel Richard Justin Kemp is a retired British Army officer who served from 1977 to 2006. Kemp was an infantry battalion commanding officer. Among his assignments were the command of Operation Fingal in Afghanistan from July to November 2003.“His latest piece of shoddy punditry is representative of his previous efforts — banality filled with distortions and delusions. He also is a practitioner of psychological projection — i.e., attributing to Russia the shortcomings of his own nation.

Larry is spot on here--British military is a third (not even second) rate military with a huge complex of inferiority and sour grapes, and behavior and commentaries of British officers in media is a disturbing sign of utter lack of military professionalism. But then again, when was the last time British Army fought serious campaign against first-rate opposition? There you go, and don't remind me about El-Alamein. That is a really bad optics.

Larry Johnson Continues Reviewing Of Jacques Baud's Thinking.

Larry elaborates, by means of Baud's thoughts, on the issue of this famous Ukie myth that they were fighting Russian Army for the last 8 years. 

One of the myths readily swallowed in the west is that Russian troops entered Ukraine in 2014 and fought alongside the people in the Donbass who were fighting the Ukrainian Army. Baud says this is not true. 

It is an important point, and this myth was sold to psychotic Ukie public and was amplified many fold by Western propaganda. No doubt, Russia did offer some assistance to LDNR in 2014-2015. But as VSU and many ignoramuses in the West who "planned" VSU assault in March of 2022 on LDNR, the assault which was forestalled by Russian Army SMO, the actual fighting with even numerically inferior Russian Army is a whole other story altogether. Only completely delusional people believe that BSU at this stage exists as well-organized and controlled force and not a collection of separate units with dwindling combat effectiveness. 

As Larry correctly notes:

Think about this for a minute–if the Ukrainian Army could not defeat the militias in the republics of Luhansk and Donetsk over the last 8 years, how in the world is that Army going to defeat the Russian Army? It is delusional.

It is delusional. And so are the West's "planners" who thought that they can impose a long and costly war on Russia. As a good friend of mine, Bonnie Faulkner sent to me today. LOL)) I can confirm: 

As you can see, Russia is dying especially dramatically today. On a lighter note. Russia opened a new bank for especially dense Europeans. You can transfer payments in this bank in any currency you want.

Just no complains about services rendered are allowed in this bank.

No Comments Are Needed Here.

Well, as I said, Ramzan cannot sit idle, he has to be in the middle of all that)) Pushilin and Kadyrov shake on that, and when Ramzan says "we will sit together all of us", I can only imagine what food and drinks will be served in Grozny and Donetsk after all that. 

In related news, this Dagestani guy explains why he just couldn't do it any other way, he saved lives of his buddies by pushing them away when he saw that they were in the line of fire on BTR. As he says, man lives once. 

This dude probably will get his Hero of Russia and... a new jaw. Neocons have no idea what they woke up. But then again, they never learned real history, they don't teach it in Ivy League.  

 

UPDATE: Here are Chechen fighters save civilians, carrying out children in Mariupol.

There are no words to say...

Colonel Lang Nails It.

I already wrote about all these talking heads US generals who pose as experts on Russia (they are not) and Vladimir Putin's "intentions".  Now Colonel Lang asks the right question:

After watching the vacillating performance of talking head generals on TeeVee over the Ukraine matter, the question arises as to whether or not they are being “pumped up” by the Pentagon on a regular basis. In the Rumsfeld era this was routinely done. Some people were briefed in private, but others were invited to meetings with 20 or 30 others. These were presided over by Rumsfeld himself backed up by a couple of advisers. I was invited to one of these. I asked a couple of awkward questions to which Rumsfeld replied that he did not know the answers. I was not invited again, but that was all right as a number of those briefed talked to me regularly. Kellogg, Keane, Clapper, Petraeus, etc. IMO these people are probably on the briefing list.

As I am on record--independent military analysis is hard, especially in the midst of current US narrative about crisis in Ukraine, which is "packaged" into a wrap of mythological benign intentions by the US to see "the spread of democracy". So, all those generals and colonels with some very minor exception continue to propagate a narrative, not real analysis, especially against the background of their utter ignorance of Russia and how things work there. 

I commented on some issues related to LDNR yesterday:

As for the forecast, VSU is doing what it does always--"digs in" by means of positioning its assets in civilian sectors, up to moving some equipment literally into the houses of civilian population in occupied by VSU Donbass. But the reliable word is out and there is a serious demoralization on the VSU part because they recognize now the gravity of the situation for them. Will they attack LDNR now? Not impossible, the regime in Kiev understands now that the process of Ukraine's crumbling has started in earnest with OR without Russian "invasion". At this stage the only use for VSU is their slaughter by LDNR militias and Russian Army in case they attack (they continue to shell civilians) and delivering TV "picture" to the West. This is the extent of the West's military "capability" against Russia. It is really not about Ukraine.

Russia WILL Recognize LDNR.

And that will be the end of the regime in 404 and, in fact, the end of 404 as we know it. The West can have this shithole it helped to create and pay for it. As Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stated today: Russia was preparing for the consequences of recognizing LDNR for many months now (in Russian). Mishustin is being somewhat disingenuous (understandably so), because this preparation started already in 2015. Recognition of the LDNR means the start of the process of integration with Russia and it means the start of the Russian troops rolling in to the line of contact with VSU and they are shitting pants right now in Kiev and at the front line. 

Expect Western media harpies going into the overdrive because this means NO war the way the US wanted it and that means that US establishment will have to face a domestic catastrophe. As Elysee Palace confirmed today (in Russian) it was Biden who asked Macron to arrange summit with Putin. I am on record, Russia has no need for this "summit" because there is nobody to talk to in Washington and all decisions on the issue of West-Russia relations have been made by Kremlin. We may begin to discuss ramifications of these decisions already today, but as I already stated--New New World Order is coming. 

In related news. French Revue Defense Nationale issued a rather pleasant revue of my The Real Revolution in Military Affairs. 

You can read it here:

Né à Bakou en 1963, officier dans la marine soviétique puis ingénieur aux États-Unis, Andrei Martyanov est l’auteur de Losing Military Supremacy. The Myopia of American Strategic Planning (Clarity Press Inc., 2018), dont nous avions à l’époque rendu compte ici même. Le présent livre est en quelque sorte la suite logique du précédent et s’intéresse à la véritable révolution militaire que constitue selon lui le développement des nouvelles armes hypersoniques. L’ouvrage commence par une réflexion sur la notion de puissance, car « la politique se définit par des éléments de puissance, notamment économique et militaire ».

But even this book will require soon a new and updated edition. That is how much and fast things change in the world. 

UPDATE: Putin already informed both Macron and Scholz that he will sign today a decree on Donbass Ria reports (in Russian). Those two expressed their "disappointment". Evidently modern West and its leaders have no concept of consequences or of cause and effect. 

UPDATE: The address is in the progress. See here. 

UPDATE: LDNR is recognized and the Treaty of Mutual Help is being concluded, putting LDNR under direct Russia's military protection.

Before Making Conclusions...

While LDNR evacuate civilians because of the only thing the regime in Kiev can do--that is shelling civilians and civilian infrastructure--my advice here is simple--don't rush to the conclusions. I would also advise not to read Western MSM because those are active participants in war crimes and many of those people who run them are directly responsible for many atrocities around the world and a good number of CNN, MSNBC, NYT and WaPo presstitudes should be persecuted for war crimes. There is a chance some of them will be, but about this--later. 

Now, I don't know in detail the disposition and correlation of VSU and LDNR forces along the contact line, but based on General Colonel Kartapolov's highly professional assessment of VSU capabilities--they are not what many Western and some Russia's pseudo-"experts" try to portray. VSU forces are large but also doubtfully cohesive due to being marinated by the trench warfare for a long time and are not capable to mount effective breakthrough (naturally at the border between Lugansk and Donetsk regions) against LDNR forces. Any arguments that some super-pooper CIA or US-UK "adviser" plans their "offensive" is risible--the United States doesn't have experience of fighting real serious combined arms campaign against competent peer, peer being in this case LDNR relative to VSU. The main task for the US is simple--to throw Ukrainian cannon fodder against LDNR and Russia, supporting them, and wait hoping that Russia appears there in a form of her armed forces. If VSU is annihilated, even better for the US.

So, this round of conflagration could be the last desperate attempt by the US to get some military response from Russia. At this stage of primarily artillery assault on LDNR and attempts to blow things here and there in breakaway republics by VSU (and whatever Anglo-American "advisers") the real offensive is doubtful. But we also have to remember that VSU is not really controlled by Mr. Ze. Ukrainian side immediately declared that there is no plan to attack and that they have no relation to terrorist acts on chemical plants in LDNR (in Russian). They may be not entirely untruthful--404 is a country controlled from Washington D.C. and considering the number of psychopaths and incompetent hacks infesting D.C. corridors of power we may yet see some bizarre developments. 

Now, you may be interested in what Russia's response will be. Simple: if Russia will be forced to react, it will be, most likely across much of a spectrum of the US-Russia stand off and some NATO assets may feel the heat. People should not lose the sight of the main conflict in which LDNR-404 is but one of many others. But at this stage even if Russia gets involved directly in LDNR the outcome for the US and combined West is already predetermined--it is not good. The logical response, however, will be, if shit hits the fan in industrial quantities, just change regime in Kiev (Kiev is preparing for evacuation) and allow LDNR to become a center of reconstituted rump of 404. As I said, while economically Europe is important, Russia can take and survive the breakup, Europe can not. But for now Russia is "not in", because LDNR forces can handle this.

I Warned About This 5 Years Ago.

Namely, that LDNR forces can start to "suddenly" get some weapon systems which scare the shit not only from VSU, but from NATO. Recall this from 2017, in a piece symptomatically titled: So, Will Donbass Forces Get Iskanders?

I applaud John McLaughlin's "analysis" since Russia sure as hell can "portray" a transfer of some really cool tech to LDNR forces as "an enhancement of Donbass defense capabilities." In the end, LDNR forces also can "hold on" to Iskanders, or some serious other toys, for a contingency Kiev "actually uses armor to extend its invasion" into Donbass.  But mocking bird exchange apart. All these last moves in Washington (including Russia sanctions) are signs of a real desperation and it all testifies to a growing burden of internal problems and rot inside the Beltway. Considering a level of utter ignorance of US "political elites" about real war and what it can bring, all this can only be driven by sheer insanity.

Yes, yes and don't tell me that I didn't warn about it. I did, many times. So, this time to "upgrade" LDNR forces has come. After receiving US "response" to Russia's "non-ulimatum", State Duma, namely ruling party United Russia, initiated the request to the President of Russia and Government of Russia to start the process of rearmament of LDNR forces. Here is the leader of faction Vladimir Vasiliev addressing (in Russian) the President and public. 

This request is a mere formalization and PR recording of the process which, most likely, has been ongoing for some time and this UR statement (request) is not possible without the nod from Kremlin. So, here we are, VSU and those mighty 400 Canadian "advisers" and still larger number of American ones in 404, should start thinking really hard if they want to be on the receiving end of some funny high-precision stand-off weapons in case they succeed in their main objective of pushing VSU to commit suicide by means of attacking LDNR, let alone Russia proper. 

This is just a small warm-up to what will transpire up to breaking off all diplomatic relations with the United States and shutting down every single NGO (a euphemism for operations of influence and sabotage centers). Some begin to worry:

On Wednesday, Reuters reported that the National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC), which represents Chevron, General Electric, and other big US corporations that do business with Moscow, are asking the administration to consider exempting certain products from financial penalties and allowing them to meet their obligations. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, a major Washington lobby group, said that any embargos “should be as targeted as possible in order to limit potential harm to the competitiveness of US companies.”

They should, because a very interesting release happened today by the way of FSB. Namely, that last year explosion of the passenger bus in Voronezh was a result not of a gas (propane) explosion, in which two people died and many sustained severe wounds, but was a result of action of a diversionary (terrorist) group from Ukraine (in Russian). All people involved in this terrorist act have been identified and... drum roll... who are people who train these groups? Right, CIA and MI6. Do you get my drift? I am 100% positive names, of those who train them are also well-known to Russians and Russians do not take lightly when foreign powers conduct terrorist acts on their territory. Somebody will have to answer, and I am not talking about Ukrainian perpetrators (those are now walking dead), I am talking about those who trained them and issued orders. So, the main question now is: how economically will the United States commit suicide, because Russia is ready. But then again, most of D.C. "brains" do not even know the actual scale of Russian economy--they have no instruments to grasp it. As for what will "flow into" LDNR--easy: AD, most likely S1 Pantsirs to shut down any UAV activity, possibly Buk-M2s to put NATO's spy-planes on note. Some, maybe already are there, and I am sure LDNR combat teams underwent all necessary training for those. The next, of course, is a flow of latest area fire impact weapons ranging from TOS to Tornado and other MLRS. Other variety of anti-armor and anti-personnel means. Russia will take care of targeting and EW.

Here is some intro to Tornado and it is a nasty-nasty system, which is also good for turning enemy forces preposition areas into a parking lot. 

But in the end, who said that LDNR will not get Iskanders or will not suddenly discover that, hey, dudes, as it turned out we had our small but very hi-tech air force all along. I know, it is so difficult to keep the track of all those Mi-35s and SU-25SMs, they always tend to fall through cracks. 

Andrei Raevsky Did a Very Good Write-Up On Fundamentals.

Of actual framework for ground operations, should they come, in LDNR zone by VSU.  A very worthy article, which gives clear definition of relation of forces in a classic offense-defense dichotomy. 

Okay, there is a lot of “bean counting” going on comparing the VSU (Ukie) forces and LDNR forces.  As with all bean counting, this is nonsensical from a military point of view.  I cannot write up a detail lecture here, but I want to point out a few key military concepts. Counting the forces along the line of contact (aka ” Forward Line of Own Troops” (FLOT) or “Forward Edge of Battle Area” (FEBA)) makes no sense since military forces do not attack “full front”.  You might have heard the rule of thumb (no more than just that!!) that you need a force ratio of about 3:1 in favor of an attacking force to overcome the enemy defenses.  As all rules of thumb, this is not quite true, but it useful because it brings in the notion of concentration of forces along the main axis/axes of attack.

Here is Andrei's opening broadside which makes it necessary to read the whole article. Andrei also writes about Russia's Black Sea Fleet. This Fleet today started its exercises with 20 ships, subs and vessels--just in case--to remind NATO that the Black Sea is Russia's internal lake de facto or, if one wishes, Russia's own barrel with fish swimming in it, which creates what is known as target rich environment.  RT (using a dramatic music) has shown today some of the ships of the Fleet setting sail to the open sea. 

My estimates of the first salvo by ships and subs only of the Fleet (I don't count Fleet's attached units ground-based systems) is anywhere between 70 to 80 both anti-shipping and land-attack cruise missiles, albeit the issue of anti-shipping (Sea Denial) role can easily be assigned to primarily land-based Bastions which control all of the Black Sea. So, there you go. As you know the US today has given written response to Russia, which Lavrov said he wouldn't make public on the request of the US side but he says public will know the essence of those responses.

Political "Scientists" On The Rampage.

Here is yet another one "the war is coming" piece, now by Glenn Diesen on RT. It is symptomatically titled: Russia-NATO war over Ukraine is becoming increasingly unavoidable. In it, Diesen does what all political "scientists" do--speaks about the subject of which he has a very vague understanding--war. Make no mistake, taxonomy is provided by Diesen. 

Deterrence rests on the three Cs: capability, credibility, and communication. Russia has the military capability to act if its red lines are crossed, it’s demonstrated credibility in terms of its preparedness to act on threats, and it knows the specifics must be communicated clearly to avoid the West making any mis-steps that would necessitate a forceful response. However, the weakness in its red lines is the current lack of detail as to what would happen if another nation took a step too far.

Sure, there is one problem--it is this first C which political "scientists" have huge problems with understanding. I start with this:

NATO and Russia certainly now appear to be heading towards war in Ukraine. Every meeting, phone call, and summit result in a commitment to the statement that there is “no alternative to the Minsk Agreement.” The Minsk Agreement identifies two conflicting parties, Kiev and Donbass, and the first action to be taken was identified as immediately establishing a dialogue between them to work out the constitutional changes that would grant autonomy to Donbass. Yet Kiev has stated in no uncertain terms that it will not talk to Donbass and thus not implement the agreement, and the NATO powers have demonstrated that they do not intend to push it into abiding by it. If the agreement is rejected and no alternative is established, then war becomes the only possible outcome.

Diesenl fails to understand that Moscow created Minsk  Agreement for it not to be implemented. It was created to precisely freeze the conflict and allow Russia to complete relatively calmly the process which is the title of my first book: Losing Military Supremacy. The Myopia of American Strategic Planning. From the get go Russia knew that there was nothing to talk about with both West, let alone 404. Russia needed to rearm and to mobilize, which she did to a large degree due to:

1. Not "liberating" the rest of the 404;

2. Being able to contain the West, not least through steady reintegration (a fully unexpected variable in operation of a return of Crimea in 2014) of LDNR's forces and now economies with Russia's. 

I wrote about it long time ago (more than 3 years ago) in the article titled: Russia as a Cat. And now about the definition of the "War". Diesen, evidently, cannot define clearly what war NATO and Russia are going to fight "over Ukraine". So, I'll try to answer.

1. NATO's war against Russia IN Ukraine with full blown mobilization of forces on the level of military districts and services, forming of Fronts in 404, Baltics etc. OK. Just two days ago I elaborated on this contingency in the piece symptomatically titled Never in the Ballpark. There is nothing scarier than Ph.D in political economy or science waxing military-strategic. To avoid elaborating yet again on this issue I will quote (yet again) a former senior officer of Russia's General Staff Colonel Vladimir Trukhan: "We don't even sweat about NATO". I'll give Diesen a hint--it has everything to do with the first and the most important C. I have a whole second book describing what this C is. I am writing another one on that too. NATO big honchos are not completely suicidal yet. They may become such, but for now this scenario is not likely.

2. NATO pushing 404 into war by means of attacking LDNR and providing it with a "military aid" (by means of supplying some old military junk and some ammo) in a desperate attempt to lure bear out of his lair. Sure! If Diesen means this war, well--even in this war NATO has zero resources and negative escalation dominance unlike Russia who may open Voentorg again and once the North Wind will begin to blow who is to say that it will not stop in Kiev? Not that this shithole is of any use for Russia. But if Diesen writes about this war, then sure. But that will not be the war between NATO and Russia, it will be the war between LDNR and 404 supported by NATO by such means like sending (ooh, scary)  600 SAS people or providing targeting and recon for 404. Absolutely, this all goes without saying. 

NATO will sanction Russia war in LDNR notwithstanding and the split between Russia and combined West is a fait accompli. But because Diesen doesn't understand the nature of this first C, he continues to completely mislead his readers and provides not an analysis but a crude propaganda pamphlet. Nobody wants the war--a real one--because if the war between NATO and Russia starts, number of the Western nations will cease to exist as operational states, and Brussels and D.C., especially Pentagon, are keenly aware of that. And yes, NATO cannot assemble a required force to fight Russia no matter how desperately it will try and that is what I wanted to explain in my next post on Salvo Model and force size but had to respond to this ridiculous piece about war and Capability--a thing which is taught in military academies and requires a set of skills and knowledge which are beyond the grasp of political "scientists". Meanwhile, the probability of 404 attack on LDNR remains high but we knew this from the inception.

I Kid You Not.

The surrealism of everything happening on the strategic axis US-Ukraine is sometimes so much off the scale, that I am forced to simply shake my head in disbelief. Get this, one of the "greatest" military leaders of our generation and, certainly, the greatest eater of the men's ties, former Georgia's President, Mikhail Saakashvili just disclosed some wowser of a news. And believe me, I almost had hernia from laughing when reading Georgia's Defense Ministry account of the Russian-Georgian War of 080808, and the Ministry was headed then by this guy. So, Saakashvili speaking to a funny Ukrainian TV channel Ukraina 24, disclosed:

Как утверждает политик, экс-директор ЦРУ и экс-глава Центрального командования США Дэвид Петреус призывал киевские власти наступать на Донецк и даже подготовил план по взятию города. При этом Саакашвили не уточнил, когда именно Вашингтон планировал воплотить эту идею в жизнь. "Я помню, был момент, когда они могли взять Донецк. Я не от себя это говорю — мне генерал Петреус <…> направил тогда длинную СМС, я был на севере штата Нью-Йорк, на каком-то празднике. Он говорит: "А, Б, В, Г, Д" — по пунктам расписано, почему сейчас хороший момент заходить в Донецк", — сказал Саакашвили. По его словам, Петреус настаивал на необходимости захватить Донецк, обосновывая это тем, что силовики могли справиться своими силами. 

Translation: According to the politician, ex-CIA director and ex-head of the US Central Command David Petraeus called on the Kiev authorities to attack Donetsk and even prepared a plan to take the city. At the same time, Saakashvili did not specify exactly when Washington planned to implement this idea. “I remember there was a moment when they could take Donetsk. I’m not saying this on my own behalf - General Petraeus <...> sent me a long SMS then, I was in the north of New York, on some kind of holiday. He says:" A, B, C, D, D "- it is written down the points why now is a good time to go to Donetsk," Saakashvili said. According to him, Petraeus insisted on the need to seize Donetsk, justifying this by the fact that the security forces could cope on their own.

Saakashvili then insists that he has shown this "plan" (LOL!!) to Poroshenko but Poroshenko didn't express any enthusiasm. For you to understand why I am so shell-shocked with this news,  I'll explain. 

1. David Petraeus:

David Howell Petraeus is a retired United States Army general and public official. He served as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency from September 6, 2011,^] until his resignation on November 9, 2012. Prior to his assuming the directorship of the CIA, Petraeus served 37 years in the United States Army. His last assignments in the Army were as commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and commander, U.S. Forces – Afghanistan (USFOR-A) from July 4, 2010, to July 18, 2011. His other four-star assignments include serving as the 10th commander, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) from October 13, 2008, to June 30, 2010, and as commanding general, Multi-National Force – Iraq (MNF-I) from February 10, 2007, to September 16, 2008. As commander of MNF-I, Petraeus oversaw all coalition forces in Iraq.

Alright, so, here is the guy who graduated every single top military school in the United States, was the top of the top, creme de la creme of military brass and, if that hasn't been enough--he ran CIA. You know, THAT allegedly "intelligence" organization which is always on top of the events. Nah, I am screwing with you. So, here is the guy who should understand the issue of combined arms operations and allegedly should have a good insight by 2014 into the capabilities of Ukrainian Armed Forces, military forces of emerging LDNR and, since he ran CIA, should have some insight in Russia's military capabilities. Right? Well...

2. Donetsk. The size of population of Donetsk-proper is 930,000+, metropolitan area--2,000,000.  In general, it is a large city, mostly concrete. 

Read on why this city was called Yuzovka in the past. It is as much Russian as it was a Welsh city. Yes, like in Wales, UK. So, here is Donetsk's geographic location. 

You may ask why I measured the distance (of 160 kilometers) from Donetsk to Russia's very own Rostov-on-Don? Well, Petraeus, being former big army honcho and CIA Director, should have known and saw how Russian Army dealt with Georgian one (including its Navy) in a matter of less than 5 days. Then he should have seen an absolute masterpiece of operation in securing Crimea. Now, looking at the map, one definitely should have asked the question--any junior officer would: where the location of the HQ of Russian Armed Forces Southern Military District is. As you may have already guessed it, it is in Rostov-on-Don and it is in a very-very short distance from Donetsk. But that is a strategic factor. The tactical and operational one is the fact that Donetsk is the type of the city the United States Army has zero experience in dealing with. Not only it is large, albeit Baghdad was still larger, but apart from rather serious anti-Maidan sentiment, that city was packed with very many people who served in the Soviet Army and that is a completely different paradigm than fighting some third world Arab army. 

This factor alone should have prompted Petraeus not to plan anything, against the background of Ukrainian Army being totally corrupt, underfunded and extremely badly trained, with many higher-ups in it already lacking in terms of modern war-fighting being stuck with the Soviet Army's combat manuals and TOE of the late 1970s-early 1980s. So, if Petraeus thought that this force is capable of capturing a huge city without the air force, which was immediately "grounded" (well, look at the map) and, as time has shown, was no match to Russia's C4ISR which was providing LDNR's armed forces in real time, how could this guy (again, CIA Director) not know what he was dealing with? Was (is) he that incompetent? Was he so oblivious to the fact that any serious attempt by Ukraine to "take" Donetsk would have resulted in a horrendous bloodshed and a complete annihilation of the Ukrainian Forces by Russia? Was he THAT ignorant, we are taking about the former head of CENTCOM and CIA?    

But above all, isn't it strange that he was SMSing his, obviously risible "plan", to a known psychopath who was thrown out of his own country? What was he expecting? Remarkably, Poroshenko most likely already knew then that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were already in dire straits. Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo have shown that Ukrainian Armed Forces were in no shape tactically, operationally and strategically to undertake any serious operations and were no match to a much more determined and skillful forces of LDNR. A bunch of neocon think-tanks continues today to "study" that war based on Ukrainian narratives, myths and urban legends, not to speak of "opinions" of pseudo-experts, some of who also predicted that in 2008 Georgian Army will "roll over" Russians, because Georgians were partially equipped by Israel and NATO, and were trained by US instructors. Boy, you all know how that thing went. But Russia and her Armed Forces of 2014 were very different form those forces which in 2008 wiped the floor with Saakashvili's Army. They were much more advanced. If David Petraeus didn't know that, it only confirms my worst suspicions about the way US military-political top thinks. Because, let's not beat around the bush here, fighting Russians, even when they are merely "militias" of Donetsk is a completely different game than whatever the United States ever encountered in its military history. George S. Patton's ignorant bravado about Russians notwithstanding. They just don't learn.