Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Andrei Raevsky Did a Very Good Write-Up On Fundamentals.

Of actual framework for ground operations, should they come, in LDNR zone by VSU.  A very worthy article, which gives clear definition of relation of forces in a classic offense-defense dichotomy. 

Okay, there is a lot of “bean counting” going on comparing the VSU (Ukie) forces and LDNR forces.  As with all bean counting, this is nonsensical from a military point of view.  I cannot write up a detail lecture here, but I want to point out a few key military concepts. Counting the forces along the line of contact (aka ” Forward Line of Own Troops” (FLOT) or “Forward Edge of Battle Area” (FEBA)) makes no sense since military forces do not attack “full front”.  You might have heard the rule of thumb (no more than just that!!) that you need a force ratio of about 3:1 in favor of an attacking force to overcome the enemy defenses.  As all rules of thumb, this is not quite true, but it useful because it brings in the notion of concentration of forces along the main axis/axes of attack.

Here is Andrei's opening broadside which makes it necessary to read the whole article. Andrei also writes about Russia's Black Sea Fleet. This Fleet today started its exercises with 20 ships, subs and vessels--just in case--to remind NATO that the Black Sea is Russia's internal lake de facto or, if one wishes, Russia's own barrel with fish swimming in it, which creates what is known as target rich environment.  RT (using a dramatic music) has shown today some of the ships of the Fleet setting sail to the open sea. 

My estimates of the first salvo by ships and subs only of the Fleet (I don't count Fleet's attached units ground-based systems) is anywhere between 70 to 80 both anti-shipping and land-attack cruise missiles, albeit the issue of anti-shipping (Sea Denial) role can easily be assigned to primarily land-based Bastions which control all of the Black Sea. So, there you go. As you know the US today has given written response to Russia, which Lavrov said he wouldn't make public on the request of the US side but he says public will know the essence of those responses.

No comments:

Post a Comment