Excellent Piece From Andrei Raevsky.

It is titled:Tactics without Strategy is the Noise Before Defeat. Andrei notes:

The title of this article is a quote by the famous Chinese general, strategist, philosopher, and writer Sun Tzu who lived 2500 years ago.  And while it is true that warfare has dramatically changed over the past millennia (for example, operational art was added as an intermediate level between tactics and strategy), the fundamental logic of Sun Tzu still applies.  To grossly oversimplify this issue, you could say that tactics are the means towards an end which has to be defined and the definition of that end goal is strategy.  Again, this is ridiculously oversimplified, but for our purposes that is good enough.

Then he arrives to this conclusion:

So what can the US/NATO bring to the table?

• A world class C4ISR (very useful, but also potentially very vulnerable)
• A world class submarine force (useful only to fire cruise missiles)
• A large amount of subsonic and mostly outdated cruise missiles
• A comparatively small ground force (with no real air defenses)
• Air forces which have no experience operating in a *very* dangerous environment.
• A very robust nuclear triad

Since we know from Sun Tzu that “tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat” we can immediately see that none of these capabilities has any chance to avoid a NATO defeat.  In other words, US commanders will soon have to face an even worse choice: defeat or nuclear war. I submit that the West currently has neither (real, meaningful) tactics nor any strategy. None. All I see is magical thinking, narcissistic delusions, a mindset shaped by centuries of relative impunity and an over-arching, blind, hatred of Russia and everything Russian. Hardly the ingredients for a victory (under any definition thereof) against the most powerful continental warfare military on the planet.

Difficult to disagree.

Andrei Raevsky's Superb Take...

 ... on the "competence" of current "elite". It is superb not because Andrei validates a lot what I write about, but because he is insider. Here is an excerpt from a great article:

I decided to chime in, because I know from the inside what Martyanov describes from the outside, so I want to share with you my own observations on this topic. I studied in the USA for five years, from 1986 to 1991 and I got two degrees in this time period: one BA in International Relations from the School of International Service (SIS) at the American University and a MA in Strategic Studies from the Paul H. Nitze School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at the Johns Hopkins University. During these same years I also worked for several (very conservative) think tanks.  The following is a summary of observations I made during this time period and after. First, and I think that this is crucial, I would argue that a generational change took place in the late 80s, but it all truly began with Ronald Reagan’s Presidency.  Let me explain.

Read the whole thing and it will also help to understand why I long for American "elite" of the past with who you could have a dialogue and even handshake agreements, and why today what passes for "elite" in US is a combination of amoral, uneducated and incompetent fanatics.

Andrei Raevsky Did A Good Write-Up...

... on current situation. Here is excerpt. Read the whole thing at The Saker's blog. 

During the first phase of the SMO, the Russians sent in a comparatively small force, which did great in combat against the Ukronazis, but which did not hold ground (which you never do in economy of force and maneuver warfare), resulting into absolutely awful optics including:

The perception that Russia promises to come and protect the people she liberated only to then abandon them.

The perception that the Russian retreated because of Ukronazi military successes.

The fact that neither of these statements is quite true does not help as they are “close enough” to the truth to sound convincing.  As a result, the Russian side completely lost control of the narrative, for a while even inside Russia! 

Pay attention to Andrei's point, it is like a day ago with somebody posting a Syrian Girl's tweet about S-300. She is a lovely and courageous lady but she still lives with this delusion that Russia somehow is responsible for protecting Syrian let alone Hezbollah's assets. And for years now many still don't get it that the only thing Russians did was to integrate Syrian AD with Russia's massive early warning capability based on this very same S-300 and S-400 sensors, who are in Syria--read my lips--to defend Russian assets at Kheimim air base and at the port of Tartus. Period! Nothing more, nothing less. Not to mention Russia having separate arrangements with Israel. But many still don't get it.

Andrei Raevsky Asks A Reasonable Question.

Discussing low class, pathetic behavior of Ukie delegation to D.C. when they wipe the shoes with DNR flag in a front of Washington bureaucrats, The Saker posits this: 

Ask yourself a basic question: is that the behavior of a side clearly winning a war?  And I don’t only mean the Ukrainians, I also very much mean the USA and NATO too. But then, one could be forgiven for thinking that the folks in DC have been transmogrified into a gang of infantiles on crack cocaine.  For a country built on the worship of capitalism and free markets, the idea to try introduce a worldwide cap on the price of the single most important commodity out there should be absolute crimethink.  Yet the Hegemony is now trying to impose a 60 dollars caps on Russia oil, thereby only creating pressure for an increase in the price.  Remember those basic supply and demand graphs from economics classes? You could say that the Empire has now declared war on that supply and demand graph :-) It is especially amazing to see that the US wants to impose a price war on Russia, when all the other major actors (KSA, Venezuela, Iran, etc.) are all hostile to the Empire and its constant bullying. Again, ask yourself a basic question: is that the behavior of a side clearly winning a war?

Using the logic of the Third Stage Guild Navigator from Dune--the answer is within the question. This Andrei's observation fits extremely well with the issue of the US military discussed by Larry and his friend.

Saker Posted Fred Reed's Piece...

... about:  

Pleasurable excitement ripples through the usual boredom of Washington, and the resident curiosities enjoy exquisite frissons, over the possibility of nuclear war over the Ukraine. Some official of the EU, or maybe it was the mediocrity in the White House with the truculence problem, but anyway one of the geniuses ruling the planet’s fate has said that if Russia used nukes, the Russian army would be destroyed, grrr, bowwow, woof. Exactly how it would be destroyed, the sayer didn’t say. Anyway, the threats and counterthreats swirl around the idea that a nuke war between Russia and the West might occur. Maybe, with tactical nukes in the Ukraine, about which nobody gives a rat’s nether region. The world is full of damned fools. But: The general staffs of both Russia and China are, whatever else you may think of them, sane. They know of America’s massive nuclear forces. They are not going to launch an atomic war. Sane behavior cannot be relied on with Washington’s second-rate lawyers, but the generals in the Pentagon are not crazy. They like hobbyist wars and big budgets, but if Biden ordered a nuclear strike, they would be likely to suddenly remember that Congress has to declare war and, seeing that their radar screens were empty of incoming missiles, and say, “Mr. President, we are not authorized to do that.” And recommend a committee. what would such a war be like? Let’s guess.

After that Fred elaborates on how such a war may unfold. It is typical Fred who uses his words as swords and it is a delight. A great piece. However, one small detail which needs to be pointed out. It is all about accuracy and CEP, or Circular Error Probable, and how this accuracy was growing, while CEP was shrinking over decades from Counter-value posture of strategic nuclear forces of USSR and the US--meaning blowing the shit out of well-sized targets easy to hit, such as cities--to Counter-force when accuracy of the delivery systems increased dramatically and the necessity to strike large area targets (to trade effect for low accuracy), which cities naturally are, diminished. Today modern ICBMs can deliver MIRVs with accuracy measured in tens of meters and that is enough to hit a specific military formation's camp, production plant or the area of the ICBM silo. So, suddenly, the collapse of such a country as the US hinges not on wiping out a number of urban areas such as NYC or Chicago--that is easy and counter-value weapons such as Poseidon do exist and are being perfected, but on something much more sinister. 

Today, the misery and collapse on any country could be visited upon by merely shutting down its electric grid, blowing all of its nuclear power stations up, with all what it entails, and taking out key bridges and dams with few other key command and control installations and the country will collapse. Civilians still will die, but not in high tens or hundreds of millions, but something on the scale of 10-20 millions at the start and after that... well, enter what Fred describes. So, it is still debatable what is the best way to die--by being counter-valued upfront or through horrors of famine, urban warfare, lawlessness, cold and illnesses, many of them incurable, which will follow a counter-force scenario. So, it is an interesting question to ponder. Or, as Comrade Sukhov, from the immortal Soviet Eastern White Sun of The Desert, answered the question on own death:  

Q: So, do you want to be finished off right now or do you want to suffer first?

Sukhov Answers: It is preferable, of course, to suffer first. 

So, these are our options and Fred excellently described Sukhov's choice--to suffer first. Meanwhile new generation chooses Pepsi or whatever the fvck the "current thing" is. Who knows what is better.  

Please, Help Saker.

I post it here, for people who can afford to help Andrei Raevsky because he lost his home in hurricane in Florida. Please donate! It is a tragedy for any family... 

The following post was put together by the Saker team.. The team includes our translators, the staff of the related Saker sites the Spanish, Italian, French, Serbian, and technical support.Herb

Dear vineyard community and friendsAs we all know, our friend and host and his family are going through a very harsh time due to hurricane Ian.We are worried about them and would like to help them get back to normal life. That is why we kindly ask anyone who is able and willing to help, to please do so through the contribution possibilities offered in the blog.We thank our Lord  Jesus Christ for his help to this family in need as well as for all of us who do have a warm bed and food to share with them. May all be blessed.

Your Saker Community Team

 Please visit Saker's Donation page. 

Andrei Raevsky Wrote A Superb Piece...

 ... on defense and, especially, mobile defense by Russian forces in Ukraine. Here is a single paragraph which both describes the SMO on the ground and shows Saker's professional aptitude when speaking on such matters:

The next thing which I need to bring up is force concentrations.  The war in the Ukraine is more similar to soccer in which attackers and defenders fight each other all over the field than to US football in which there is a clear line of scrimmage and where everything is about “conquering” more terrain or advancing downfield.   This means that there are always temporarily unoccupied “grey zones” (think of them as parts of the soccer field which happen to be empty but which could quickly become a “combat area” if a pass is made there and two players will fight each other for control of the ball). Just these two facts very strongly suggest that a mobile defense is the way to go on such terrain.  These are generalizations, of course, but by and large they apply.

Saker's analogy to naval warfare is also very apt and fully applies, because SMO is primarily a maneuverable affair on Russian side. So when Andrei concludes with this: 

Having said all that, if the next time the Russians retreat for a few kilometers you want to either freak out and declare that “all is lost” or proclaim with great gravitas that “Russia is losing the war”, by all means, feel free to do so.  I will just ignore these claims simply because, frankly, I am sick and tired of repeating the same truisms over and over and over again, especially when plenty of “commentators” don’t even bother reading what I wrote, they just want to flood the comments section with their talking points! If you rather trust Girkin-Strelkov or Arestovich that is fine by me as long as you don’t have to parrot their nonsense in the comments section which I consider as “deliberate pollution of the comments section”.  That will get you banned and, once we have the “comments for signed-up commentators only” thing ready, I will simply remove you from the approved list.

I can only subscribe to every word here, with the exception of banning people unless they are into you face IPSO trolls or manifest ass-holes, other than that, it is OK. Read the whole thing at Saker's blog. In related news, the volume of squealing and BS emanating from NATO swamps is a very good indicator of a scale of catastrophe, both military and economic, which combined West is facing and many begin to grasp what is going on and what SMO is all about:

The European metals industry has called on the EU for emergency action to prevent a collapse of the sector which faces an existential threat from surging power and gas prices.  In a letter to the top EU officials, including European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, the European metals industry association Eurometaux wrote that “the business leaders of Europe’s non-ferrous metals industry are writing together to raise the alarm about Europe’s worsening energy crisis and its existential threat to our future.” As much as 50% of the EU’s aluminum and zinc capacity has already been forced offline due to the power crisis, Eurometaux said in the letter. Significant curtailments have also been made in silicon and ferroalloys production, and further impacts felt across the copper and nickel sectors, the association added. 

As many of us continued to stress for years--Russia's conflict is NOT just with Nazi regime in Ukraine, it is with combined West and its leader, the United States, and that Ukraine, while extremely important, is but one of theaters of operations in this cataclysmic struggle between emerging new world order, more just and predictable, and forces of utter destruction which Pax Americana came to embody. This Neo-colonial regime is not just doomed, it already lost and the world is in the stage of mopping operations, with Europe being driven back to her western-most peninsula and with the United States being cut down to its proper size. Economic reality of the combined West is such that it is being dwarfed now by the emerging Eurasian economies, while remaining militarily impotent in a serious peer-to-peer conflict.  They don't like it and they feel the existential threat to themselves--they are correct. Their rule is over. 

I Agree With Andrei Raevsky.

In his latest on Daria Dugina he notes:

Dariia Dugina was murdered by a single Ukronazi terrorist, directed by the SBU which, in turn, is just a proxy for the CIA/MI6.  But Dariia Dugina’s innocent blood, like the blood of MILLIONS of other innocent people throughout the history is on the hands of the ruling class which pretends to see nothing while being directly involved in it all.  As for the people of the West, they have to decide whether they will continue meekly accept to be ruled my murderous, racist, thugs or whether they will resit them (or, at least, not support them and, at the very least, have the decency to decide to never knowingly support any lie). So far, I have to sadly admit that I am not very impressed.  I see a post-truth society in which the very concept of truth has lost any meaning.  That utter and total indifference to the very notion of truth is the only true “western value” left.

Difficult to add anything. What criminals who ordered this assassination do not understand--they cannot, they lack human qualities--they created a powerful new Martyr for Russians. 

Andrei Raevsky Did A Good Write Up On Diversionary Acts.

Excellent write-up which gets to the heart of the matter of Ukie sabotage and diversionary acts. 

This is a major problem for Russia and, worse, this is a problem which will not go away anytime soon. The only thing Russians can do is to 1) prepare for a very long counter-intelligence and counter-diversionary operations lasting many years and 2) accept the reality of war for what it is and not freak out the next time the Ukronazis blow up something, be it a ship, a train, an aircraft, a bridge or any other target in the LDNR or Russia. The one good news the Russians also need to keep in mind is that most of such diversionary/terrorist attacks are still fundamentally part of PSYOPs and are mostly designed for PR effect.  In terms of their actual impact on Russian military capabilities, it is close to zero,  just like the Israeli strikes in Syria have made exactly *zero* difference on the ground in Syria.  To really affect military operations you need to have a large, viable and sophisticated partisan/”stay behind” force, which the Ukrainians do not have, not by a long margin.  Also, to really affect military operations, such diversionary tactics need to be carefully coordinated with “regular” friendly military forces (like the Soviet partisans during WWII who closely worked with the Soviet armed forces).So yes, this is a problem, a very unpleasant one, one which will be hard to deal with, but not one which will affect Russian military operations.  Even if the Ukronazis blow up both the Chernobyl AND Zaporozhiie NPs, this will not significantly affect the SMO or even the war between Russia and the united West.

Read it in whole, which also, by implications, explains why I do not discuss the sinking of RKR Moskva. 

Andrei Raevsky Gives...

 ... some really good responses to questions people ask him all the time. 

Why have I stopped posting maps of the situation in the Ukraine and a few other questions. 

Read the whole thing at his site. Most of it is spot on. Here is one great explanation by him of the larger framework:

The truth is that the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass have been in a de-facto operational cauldron since the first week of the SMO.  That is not the result of any special Russian military move, but a factor of geography.  Simply put, the eastern Ukraine is a gigantic cauldron.  True, it as not a locked cauldron, meaning that the Ukrainian side still could move forces into and out of the cauldron, but it was already “locked by fire” meaning that Russian forces could, and did, attack the forces moving in and out with devastating effectiveness.

Quick reminder: the Ukrainians, supported by billions of dollars from the combined West did have eight years to prepare very strong fortifications along the towns and cities they controlled before the SMO.  Maybe somebody expected the Russians to move in frontally, carpet bomb the Ukie-controlled Donbass (as the USA would do) and then frontally attack taking huge casualties in the process.  The Russians, wisely, did not oblige.  Instead, they chose to slowly grind down the Ukrainian defenses.

These tactics did, by the way, result in quite a few towns and villages being liberated by Russia (Izum, Peski and others), and quite a few tactical “cauldrons” which eventually were absorbed.  But, again, the maps did not reflect the nature of what was taking place.

Plus, of course, as was reported by Ukies (Podolyak speaking to BBC) themselves today, and as was anticipated, Kherson "counter-offensive" was a "psyop" (in Russian), LOL. You know, another Ghost of Kiev. Can VSU mount some kind of attack? Sure, platoon, company level. Lord Austin promised Kiev regime today:

(Bloomberg) -- US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reinforced a pledge that Washington and its allies will continue supplying military aid to Ukraine to help it repel Russia’s invasion “for as long as it takes.”

Yes, this is how US loves to fight: to the last Vietnamese, Iraqi, Afghani, what have you. There is one problem for Kiev regime, Washington and personally Lord Austin, the US Military-Industrial Complex is not capable to sustain a real war, because it cannot produce at all or in necessary quantities (I omit here the issue of quality) what is needed to fight even one theater war such as one in Ukraine. And this is with Russians using only small fraction of their forces there.

In Support of Graham Phillips.

Andrei Raevsky already posted about the atrocity "democratic" UK is committing against Graham. Here is Saker's post's intro:

Dear friends,

After seeing and then posting this video by Graham Phillips I got to disgusted by what was being done to him by the British authorities that I decided to contact him and ask him a few very basic question about his situation in the hope to introduce him to a larger audience, give visibility to his case and to try to offer him as much support as possible.  So I emailed Graham who very kindly took the time to answer my questions.  Here is our full exchange below.

I ask all of you who use the social media to spread all the information you can about Graham and the outrageous actions of the British authorities against him.  Graham himself said “moral support is good, please, contact a politician or a public person to bring this to their attention. This is a common cause, a common fight, and one we not only can win, but must win“.

I absolutely agree with him and I ask our wonderful Saker community to be as loud as possible in defense of Graham and the basic values of free speech and the rule of law which the West has now completely abandoned.  Graham is right, this is a common cause and we must prevail.  Please help him as much as you can!

Kind regards

Andrei

Read the whole thing at Andrei's blog. Some reminder to British "authorities"--"in a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act"(c). It is not Orwell, albeit this quote is ascribed to him, but it doesn't make it less correct. UK lives the lie for many decades now. Support Graham Phillips.

Some Explanations Re: The Saker.

I need to offer some elaborations on the issue which many who also post on my discussion boards do not understand. A few people like to constantly negatively react to Andrei Raevsky's writing. This is those people's right, and I completely am fine with constructive (I underscore it--not some propaganda BS spewing) criticism of my writing as well, as with correcting my mistakes, which I make sometimes. We all do. As any people we have our biases and even delusions. I, certainly, have mine, but so does The Saker. E.g. I and him we will never settle on the account of Solzhenitsyn who for majority of Russians is a traitor, falsifier of history, and open Vlasovite--a euphemism for Nazi collaborator--not to mention the fact that he is a mediocre writer. But this does not prevent me from recognizing Andrei Raevsky as one of the best analytical voices in Anglosphere when it comes to geopolitical analysis and you can often see in his writing the use of professional methods of developing a hypothesis. It is a rare skill. 

This is not to mention the fact of his whole site being an extraordinary resource for people who seek truth and Andrei's yesterday's long (justifiably) and well written piece is a good indication of his excellent and very rare craft. Do I always agree with him? Absolutely not, there are some issues which I have disagreement with, but that is absolutely normal and is merely a small detail in a much larger and much more important work he does. So, for The Saker's critics, when criticizing, concentrate on his points in substance, meaning providing a constructive criticism, which addresses the problem, not his, or, for that matter, my biases. Present the case, not the just Boolean opinions of "right-wrong", "yes-no", but at least some argumentation to the contrary. That is a healthy and judicial approach to any discussions and upholding a generally good intellectual level which exists in my blog. I am sure Andrei Raevsky and his team will deal with Saker's blog discussions on their own. This is the issue I needed to address after seeing some reactions on Saker's excellent write-up yesterday. I hope this my advice will be heeded. In the end, recall that many of you found me and my little blog to a large degree thanks to Andrei Raevsky, for which I am very grateful to him.  

Now, to this 20%. 

Russian energy major Gazprom will stop the operation of second Siemens turbine, the company announced on Monday. As a result supply through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will not exceed 33 million cubic meters per day from July 27, business daily Kommersant has reported, corresponding to 20% of the pipeline's capacity.

I repeat, I do feel for Germans, but let me disclose one secret--one of my acquaintances, a man of extraordinary background and a very notable figure, who is German, had to bitterly admit, during one of our many conversations, that until Germany collapse economically and population as a whole will feel the brunt of this collapse, no political changes are possible. But Germany does need this change desperately because at issue is, actually, a survival of Germans as people. Yes, this is how serious this all is. 

But Russia DOES NOT anymore bear responsibility for Germany because in the last decade Germany did everything to not only alienate Russia, but support a regime and powers which wish Russia and Russians disappearance as people and culture. Germany "refashioned" itself back to the times of Drang nach Osten, and even worse iteration of it--genocidal views of Nazis. Russians, arguably, are the best people in the world when it comes down to recognizing an existential threat to themselves. Germany now is a part of this threat:

Ukraine has received its first shipment of German ‘Gepard’ anti-aircraft systems, as well as thousands of rounds of suitable ammunition, according to a statement made by Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov on Monday. “We are waiting for the first 15 Gepards. Three have arrived in Ukraine today. They are already at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Reznikov said on national television. “These are anti-aircraft systems, for which tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition have been transferred to us.” Germany had previously promised to deliver at least 30 ‘Gepard’ air-defense tanks to Ukraine. The first shipment of 15 tanks is expected to have arrived before the end of this month, while another 15 are to be delivered in August.

Gepards are obsolete weapon systems which will have no impact on the outcome, but the fact that Germany supports genocidal anti-Russian Kiev regime says it all. For Russians Germany is THE ENEMY now and will be treated as such. This, however, in no way reflects on many Germans who immigrate to Russia and are met with open arms.

Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) Is Back With Vengeance.

Andrei finally recharged his batteries and upon his return unleashed a heavy artillery barrage of great analysis and demolition of Western narratives:

Five months ago, on February 24th, Russia began what she called a “special military operation” (SMO). In very simple terms, this is what Russia has achieved so far: Ukraine has lost about 20% of its territory, about 3 thousand towns and villages, half of the gross national product, and a third of coal production. It completely lost access to the Sea of Azov, and traffic through the Black Sea ports froze due to fighting and mining of waterways. The number of refugees has reached 7 million (source).But these factoids don’t even begin to tell the full story. There would be many ways that this story could be told, but to begin I want to list a few elements of the official western narrative which have now faceplanted and nobody sane would take seriously.

Read the whole thing--it is long and that is precisely why it makes it so good, because Andrei covers many key issues apart from what now is apparently becoming an imploding narrative by the combined West. Enjoy, I did. 

About Symbols.

People love symbols. It is only natural and when a complete disassembly of Nazi Azov org happened in Mariupol a few days ago, very many people started to give to the fact of Azov's big honcho--in reality he is one of a few ones--and Western media "darling" Prokopenko and whatever his deputy call sign is, Kalina or what have you, too much significance. Some said that he surrendered, then it was refuted, then "confirmed" again, and so it was this back-and-forth for a couple of days but in reality, tactical, operational and strategic reality of today's Mariupol, it made very little difference, because it was mostly a symbolic thing. Those 2,000+ of Nazis who already surrendered by that time were in themselves a huge value for Russia and LDNR in terms of intel. 

Well, now the surrender of this Azov's commander is fully confirmed and he was taken away by Russians in the armored vehicle since there were very many people of Mariupol who wanted to lynch him for his and his subordinates' crimes (in Russian). Yet, there is no denial of the powerful symbolism of all this, since in roughly two months a much numerically inferior Russian force not only took a major urban center and its vicinity but in doing so completely annihilated what was considered the best fighting force of VSU and Ukie Nazis and now many of those Russian forces, after some regrouping will be aiding at the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk axis where another roughly 15,000 of VSU and Nazis force is being annihilated as I type this. Symbolic? Absolutely! Now Kiev desperately needs to construct another "peremoga" (victory) in media to keep the attention of its sponsors from D.C. and Brussels firmly on 404 and own population completely brainwashed.

Well, there is surely a lot of Western "attention" on 404--primarily for its grain which is being "removed" from 404 by anything available. If the rest of Ukraine will go hungry neither Brussels nor D.C. really care, those Slavs are subhumans, after all, at the more they die, the better. Meanwhile Western "economists" continue to wonder--what is going on? 

In accordance to their "science" Russian economy should be "in tatters" but, evidently, it is exactly the other way around and then this "bummer". 

Oil Prices Under Pressure As China Considers Russian Crude

Right. Truth is, the alternative world governing system is being created as I type this, with Russia discussing the exit from most Western "orgs" ranging from WTO to WHO. So much so the process is advanced, that some in Russia even begin to assess (in Russian) the validity of BRICS growing into the alternative G-20. But how about renaming G-7 (you know Great-7) to M-7 (Mediocre-7)? It will be very symbolic but also reflecting perfectly the status of what is commonly known today as the combined West. And that brings us to the issue of power projection which the person (Gevorg Mirzoyan), who authored the piece on BRICS, fails to understand--larger Eurasia, the Heartland if to follow classic (and redundant) geopolitics is a unique landmass, which requires absolutely different approaches to "power projection" than what became known from the American way of projecting power. But that is a separate huge issue which requires a professional treatment. 

In purely Sitrepish news. Read the excellent note from Larry Johnson on Desna:

Desna Is Just One Disaster for the Ukrainian Military

Plus  Andrei Raevsky gives a good report on Shoigu's statements. So, here is you primer for Friday.

The Saker Adds To A Broadside.

The Saker people wrote a good retort to Western (Ukie) canards about timeline. Replying to continuous US MSM BS about "the plan" Saker's staff concludes:

The US and its allies spent 8 years building up the military the Ukraine had at the beginning of Russian military operations in February 2022. This Ukrainin military failed to prevent Russian forces now from shaping the battlefield in Donbas creating the conditions for Ukrainian forces there to be cut off, encircled, and systematically destroyed. After 8 years – this was the best the US and its allies could do to prepare Ukraine. Despite the urgent (reported) flood of weapons and money into Ukraine now along with remedial training programs – nothing now can be done better or quicker than over the past 8 years – Russia is removing Ukrainian combat capabilities off the battlefield faster than the Ukraine and its allies can replace or regenerate it.

They also note this wide-spread BS about Putin's "apology" to Israel, which, of course, was primarily a figment of imagination of the Israeli media. In related topic, Bernhard of MoA continues to develop the thesis, with which I agree completely, that:

The geniuses (not) at the National Security Council want to goad Russia into direct attacks on U.S. forces or interests. That would give the U.S. an excuse to further escalate the war in Ukraine into an open confrontation. It would also diverts the attention away from domestic problems.

Generally, I don't see anymore any need to rely on any idea on warfare and geopolitics coming from the US (forget dumbfvcks from EU) Establishment, because, frankly, they are utterly incompetent and are one-trick pony capable only of manipulation of public opinion. That is it.

Thanks To Andrei Raevsky And His Team.

They did a translation of this Chechen soldier talking about animals from VSU and Nazi formations killing civilians. Zaur, and his brothers are real warriors. Honorable.

You can see the full story at The Saker's blog too. But there is another thing here which I cannot avoid talking about. Obviously, Ramzan Kadyrov is an exceptional man in many respects, but what he and his Chechen warriors are doing today has a truly metaphysical meaning in healing the wounds of past wars. Heroism and sacrifice of Kadyrov people is not just appreciated, you have overwhelming majority of Russians expressing their love and appreciation of their both combat and humanitarian work. I never thought I would see this while I live, but it is an absolutely unique moment. 

There is a story now from some civilians in Mariupol who were hiding in the basement of the apartment block which was turned into the fortress by Azov animals. And then, after some time the sound of small arms and machine guns fire subsides and after the period of silence those civilians heard some steps above them. They thought that now, for sure, the end is near, knowing what Azov did to civilians. And then they hear: Allahu Akbar and Akhmat--Sila (Akhmat is Power) and the whole basement sighs in full relief: "Thank God, Russians!" In recognition of Chechen Kadyrov fighters contribution in fighting Nazis, their field leader and the MP of the State Duma from Chechnya Adam Delimkhanov had been awarded the title of Hero of Russia (in Russian). I am positive he is not the last one of Akhmat Regiment servicemen who will get that kind of highest recognition. The most important one, among Russian people, has been already earned. 

Andrei Raevsky Makes The Point...

 ... emphatically and I agree with it: 

The collective West has now fully adopted a strategy first invented by the Israelis: if you cannot win a real war, win an imaginary one.  And just as the IDF bombing some border post between Syria and Iraq makes no military sense or even any difference whatsoever, it is great for the morale of the Israelis who, just like the folks in the West, feel a strong sense of racial superiority over their Arab neighbors so they *need* “victories” to boost their own egos and conceal the fact that Israel’s neighbors have lost any fear they might have had in the past.  What has to remain the biggest secret of them all is that, in reality, it is Israel which fears its neighbors (and it should!).  Hence all the Israeli hysterics about BDS, or the term “Apartheid”, and all the crap about anti-Semitism: they are all designed to hide the truth, and first and foremost from the Israelis themselves who all suffer from what Gilad Atzmon very accurately calls “the pre-traumatic stress disorder”.

But while I agree that combined West went into the total war against Russia (and Russians, I may add), there is this sense of desperation which marks all of this war and Alex Christoforou, while lamenting, understandably, Greece's position, elaborates extensively on Nuland (and neocons in general):

He, correctly, concludes that they want second "Afghanistan" for Russia but immediately gives out, by merely providing basic facts, the main reason why this is not going to happen, for two reasons.

1. Nuland is scavenging all she can get in terms of old Soviet equipment from anyone who has some. Like Czechs who sent, reportedly already annihilated (don't quote me on that) together with the strike on Lozovaya rail-road station near Kharkov (this one is confirmed), 40 tanks and BMP-1s. If she tries to get her hands on Tor M1s and armor from Greece and Cyprus, that tells you a lot. It is desperation. 

Of course, Pentagon confirmed that they are sending first 100 Switchblade loitering munitions to Ukraine, and that the US trained operators for this weapon in the US. But, judging by the "successes" of Javelins and the US and UK "planning", such as using civilians as human shield, the result will be primarily PR-oriented, and will change absolutely nothing in the final outcome. In related news, there are many locations around the world where US military bases will have to think twice about safety, such as in Syria, because people who do not want to see US troops there may suddenly increase their deadliness--you know, like this.     

2. Neocons are not good at war which involves the use of tanks and aircraft, but they suck even more when we are talking about modern 21st century warfare, especially the scale of what is happening in 404 now. Kagan clan, including Viky Nuland, as you know, rely on the "expertise" of such abusers of donations and grants as the Institute for the Study of War, where a bunch of political "scientists" and losers of all campaigns they fought, such as generals Keane and Petraeus, parade themselves as incompetent ignoramuses pretending to know Russia and her military. And ISW is just one of many orgs which do not "study" war but create narratives, while I personally begin to seriously doubt the competence of modern day Pentagon. They can do PR, that's for sure, I doubt they know how to fight the real war, especially as complex as that in 404. And especially they have no clue what it means to fight for your country--NO US servicemen ever died defending the United States proper. This is also a foundation of the all consuming both envy and complex of inferiority of many US generals, because Russia dwarfs the US in terms of military history and beating all best military powers of the last millennium. This is also in the foundation of many in Western elites' all consuming hatred of Russia and Russians. 

So, I quote Andrei Raevsky, "if you cannot win a real war, win the imaginary one." That is what the US is doing since Vietnam. Doing proxy wars, staging false flags, supplying Nazis and terrorists with weapons--that, they are good at. Winning? Not really. Now, being primitive one-dimensional military "thinkers" they cannot even come up with believable lie and increasingly come across as desperate, which Nuland's voyage merely confirms. They love to think about themselves as very sophisticated and advanced, in reality they are primitive, uncultured and are crafty only at political machinations--this is the extent of their competencies. This is their "level":

US intelligence officials leaked information about the Ukraine conflict that wasn’t “rock solid” and outright made up some claims, all to win an “info war” against the Kremlin, according to an NBC News report on Wednesday. The officials admitted to, and boasted about, releasing this misinformation. When the American media cited US “intelligence” to warn that Russia was preparing to use chemical weapons in Ukraine, and when President Joe Biden repeated these warnings, they were participating in a disinformation campaign, the NBC report reveals. According to the intelligence officials who came up with the warning, the intention was to discourage Russia from actually using these weapons, even though they themselves rated the intelligence used “low confidence.”

Do I need to say more? They long ago lost the distinction between illusion and reality and continue to fight imaginary war, because they don't know how to fight a real one.

How To Look Laughable.

And I mean it. Evidently in the course of what passes in the West for statesmanship throwing hollow promises to the left and to the right is considered a pinnacle of a state craft, while elsewhere it is considered to be a mere bullshit. Germany, evidently, decided that making grandiose statements without any wherewithal to support them in practice is a good policy. Right, you know, like promising not to expand NATO to Gorbachev. 

Germany is “100%” prepared to provide some form of security guarantees to Ukraine, while the US government is still “in constant discussion” with Kiev, according to officials from both countries. The comments came, on Wednesday, after leaked proposals from Russian-Ukrainian peace talks appeared to suggest an arrangement where Moscow and various Western capitals would agree to promise Kiev protection if it agreed to de-militarise. “If guarantees are needed, then Germany will be there and give guarantees,” Germany’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock told state broadcaster ARD on Wednesday, saying Kiev could rely on her country’s support. Baerbock said Berlin was “in full solidarity, by 100%” with Ukraine.

Apart from obvious delusion of such a statement--Germany cannot guarantee anything to herself--one has to ask the question: who would believe Germany with exception of completely delusional Ukie "elites"? Or, for that matter, the US? Germany has to resign herself to a simple fact of life that it is a lapdog country with declining economy in general and industrial base in particular, lacking any resources and being in the state of committing a cultural suicide.  I mean, they still believe that they are "the locomotive of European economy", a favorite cliche by all kinds of creatures from Wall Street Journal. Militarily Germany is a pipsqueak and if anyone wanted to see this, be my guest, it is for March 2022:

These are average prices, there are some places in Germany which have it as high as 50 cents per kWh. This is how economic death looks like, but sure, they need more philosophers, political "scientists" and activists in German government. So, the details of how Germany will guarantee anything are not disclosed. Of course. Details are boring and hard, grandiose statements are easy. Like the ones General Keane loves to make, especially using the term "strategy" in between verbal packages of BS about Ukraine and warfare. 

As Larry Johnson notes:

Russia Mythology Dominates the U.S. Media

They want Russians to die so badly, that they continue to invent things as they go and, of course, they love to parrot Ukie propaganda. In related new, Douglas Macgregor spoke in length about this whole clusterfvck of American (lack) or competent governance and piles of BS being created by Western media. 

At this stage, American Main Stream Media can not be viewed other than a huge lie-machine for brainwashing public and they are the laughing stock of the rest of the world. Generally speaking, the profession of journalist has been killed in the West. It is now up to what passes for "alternative" journalism which faces the task of recovering the status of profession of a reporter. Here is one for you, wonderful Eva Bartlett talking to Gonzago Lira:

In conclusion, here is Andrei Raevsky's good take on this whole "tempest in the tea cup" (primarily spun by all kinds of amateur "analysts") of "negotiations":

Long before the Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) in the Ukraine started, but following the Russian ultimatum, I indicated many times that what Russia would be doing is the following: ask for negotiations and if the other side rejects them, Russia would turn up the “pain dial”, slowly, step by step.  If the other side agreed to negotiations, but then used them to stall and negotiate in bad faith, same response: Russia would turn up the pain dial.  A little.  Step by step.

Pentagon, actually, got it almost right)))

Yeah, Kiev is not a target (at least for now), it never was from the start. The VSU around it were. I quote Medinski again that reduction of activity "doesn't mean a cease fire". There is nothing to comment on it--everyone, I hope, by now read Scott Ritter's excellent primer on operations.

Read Andrey Raevsky's Sitrep And Pepe's Economic View.

Andrey (The Saker) gives a good write up for March 15, with focus on Avdeevka. 

Here is what you need to know about Avdeevka: this is the very heavily defended location from which the Ukronazis could unleash their terror against the civilians in Donetsk.  Now that this entire town has been flattened, the people of Donetsk can now finally hope to live in relative (Ukie Smerch MLRS and Tochka-U missiles can still reach Donetsk!) peace. So, not only did Russian encircle the entire Ukrainian forces in an operational cauldron, she then proceeded to cut that single force into two smaller cauldrons (but both still contained in the bigger, operational, cauldron) and now as a show of force, she destroyed the most combat capable Ukrainian unit in the most heavily defended town. The “message” here is clear: we strongly encourage you to lay down arms or else… One Ukrainian blogger even believes that there will soon be (or already are!) three mini-cauldrons (see map with cauldrons in blue).

It is also remarkable against the background of Jake Sullivan's utter failure to convince China to sell Russia out, using a preposterous BS excuse for initiating a meeting with China's Yang Jechi that China provides... military equipment to Russia? Somebody needs to stop getting high in D.C.  

President Joe Biden's administration shared serious concerns over China's growing relations with Russia after seven-hour talks Monday between Washington and Beijing officials. Speaking to reporters after the conclusion of the discussions, led by White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and the Chinese Central Foreign Affairs Commission in the Italian capital of Rome, a senior administration official said that "we do have deep concerns about China's alignment with Russia at the time, and the national security adviser was direct about those concerns and the potential implications and consequences of certain actions."

How about "sharing serious concern" about utter incompetence of what passes in the US for "diplomacy"? This all translates smoothly into what Pepe writes about sanctions. 

All the blather about “crashing Russian markets,” ending foreign investment, destroying the ruble, a “full trade embargo,” expelling Russia from “the community of nations,” and so forth –that’s for the zombified galleries. Iran has been dealing with the same thing for four decades, and survived. Historical poetic justice, as Lavrov intimated, now happens to rule that Russia and Iran are about to sign a very important agreement, which may likely be an equivalent of the Iran-China strategic partnership. The three main nodes of Eurasia integration are perfecting their interaction on the go, and sooner rather than later, may be utilizing a new, independent monetary and financial system. But there’s more poetic justice on the way, revolving around the ultimate game-changer. And it came much sooner than we all thought. Saudi Arabia is considering accepting Chinese yuan – and not US dollars – for selling oil to China. Translation: Beijing told Riyadh this is the new groove. The end of the petrodollar is at hand – and that is the certified nail in the coffin of the indispensable Hegemon.

Pepe then asks:

Meanwhile, there’s a mystery to be solved: where is that frozen Russian gold?

All physical gold of Russia is located in the main storage facility of Russia's Central Bank (two third of reserves) at Pravda street, the rest (one third) is equally split between storage facilities in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.  

As you may have guessed it--Putin did this photo-shoot not in Fort Knox. Here is the video which explains where Russia's physical gold is. 

Sadly, only in Russian.

Andrei Raevsky On False Flags And Invasions.

Ah, the memories)))

Read the whole thing.

The big exodus of the defenders of the Independent Ukraine

Mr.Ze already addressed the nation, LOL. As I say constantly, it would have been hilarious if not for this whole clusterfuck being very sad.