While The Shit Boils ...

 ... in the cauldron of Trump's 404 strategery, allow me to remind you why Russian economy is booming, and it is not just because of SMO. Far from it. One of the critical indicators of country's development is transport machine building and here Russia demonstrates just insane development. This video is in Russian, but you don't have to know it to recognize that what you see in it--the fresh 2025 arrivals--are either completely or 90% are made in Russia, including critical asynchronous electric motors and electronics, not to speak of design and interiors. 

That includes what is coming--fully Russian high-speed trains. Siemens, yes, that's you--you see, you should have watched Two and a Half Men while it was still good)))

Just couldn't resist))

It Is Obviously Putin's Fault.

 Or, generally speaking, of Russia. 

Because, you know, these were Russians who set political agenda in Germany and who voted for Germany's political parties. In the end, Germany has this... philosopher in charge of own economy, or rather what's left of it.

Germany's reliance on China, Russia was like being 'doped': vice chancellor. Berlin to push ahead with derisking, doesn't face structural recession: Robert Habeck

Yes, he is absolutely correct, Germany already lost Russian market (solvent and largest in Europe as a single country), now they will try to lose Chinese one. Not to mention the fact that Germany is increasingly non-competitive with pretty much anyone. Germany's pride of her automotive industry and Siemens... well, Russia is doing just fine without them. China... look at it...

Pretty much speaks for itself. And you already heard this news:

WOLFSBURG, Germany, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) plans to shut at least three factories in Germany, lay off tens of thousands of staff and shrink its remaining plants in Europe's biggest economy as it plots a deeper-than-expected overhaul, the company's works council head said on Monday. Europe's biggest carmaker has been negotiating for weeks with unions over plans to revamp its business and cut costs, including considering plant closures on home soil for the first time, in a blow to Germany's industrial prowess.

Make your own conclusions on this matter. I am sure that also will be blamed on Russia...

Stating Obvious...

 ... is not a science. Sabine may have Ph.D in Theoretical Physics but she oozes classic German lefty not understanding that she is herself a part of the problem being a conduit of social and economic policies (yes, Eco-friendly BS, which killed Germany) which killed (it is a fait accompli) Germany. 

Germany should be embarrassed for being a slap-bitch of the US, being an occupied country, being de-industrialized, having Grune Party, having never learned proper economics and geopolitics. So, Ph.D in physics doesn't prevent one from being stupid and brainwashed. But at least she asks right questions now. It is too late to ask them, but at least she may claim some scientific integrity to her argument in the middle of the accelerating collapse. I have some very bad news for her... and Germany.

It Is Not Just Germany.

Pretty much all of EU (and US) economic statistics is a financial legerdemain and it is just the start of strangling of EU economy in earnest. 

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that his country is getting poorer because of its failure to generate economic growth. Speaking at a Bloomberg event in Frankfurt on Monday, the leader of the market-friendly Free Democrats acknowledged that it’s hard to avoid the implications of an extended period of little or no expansion.“We are no longer competitive,” he said. “We are getting poorer because we have no growth. We are falling behind.” Lindner’s remarks highlight the predicament faced by Europe’s biggest economy as it enters a second post-pandemic year when expansion is anticipated to turn out feeble at best. 

Germany has been hit harder simply because the US views her as a main competitor in EU and as a "locomotive" of EU's economy. Locomotive being a misnomer, of course, more like a handcar. Again, it is the globalist model which is in a free fall. And don't let me started on Military-Industrial Complex of Europe. Good luck with new tanks, combat aircraft and other things. F-35 for everyone)) Rafale? Forget it--it begins to near obsolescence plus France cannot produce enough on time. So, yeah, now it seems that whatever is being left of 404 is being "given" as a "gift" to EU by the US--let EU taxpayer foot the bill for keeping this quasi-country afloat... for now. LOL. Recall, I warned about it... 

Berliner Zeitung Makes A... Discovery.

I already mentioned this in my latest video but here is the discovery verbatim.

Germany’s new dependency on Russia: “Putin’s war chest is filled” The latest statistics are surprising: In the middle of the Ukraine war, Russia exports 334 percent more cheaper fertilizers to Germany.

Ah, the no shit moment, again. I am pretty sure that an average German business wants to survive, in order to do that it needs, yes, affordable energy and fertilizers, because people need to eat. German fertilizer production collapsed and that automatically opens the door to Russian one. Now this LNG business. Let's repeat again: 

EU countries are set to buy record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia this year, even as the bloc pledges to stop consuming Russian fuel by 2027, the latest findings published by Global Witness on Wednesday revealed. Members of the bloc continued to import a significant amount of LNG from Russia in the first seven months of this year, data showed.  

As Kremlin was predicting for years--the US energy is NOT competitive in Europe and the only way it can "compete" is by shoving it down the throats of energy-suffocating Europeans.  Here is video (in Russian) which doesn't really need translation, which also demonstrates why Russia is becoming top 4-5 shipbuilding country because one such floating LNG plant is about 600,000 tons of displacement and Russia builds many of them. 

Novatek has some plans for that. And here is purely pragmatic issue--Russia will sell to Europe (with the exception of Hungary) enough to prevent hungry riots there in order to settle post-SMO Europe, but all those trust-based relations are over. Most of it goes to BRICS countries and the fact that both Putin and Xi declined visiting G-20 summit in a week speaks volumes. Remarkably, one of the sleeper cell Moscow assholes betrayed himself by publishing a delirium hysterical article in NG and was thrown out of the chair of a director of Moscow's Institute of the USA and Canada. Very symptomatic (in Russian).

Speaking Of Operations Research.

Josep Borrell does have degree in it--Applied Mathematics from Stanford no less. But a collection of complex degrees still does not guarantee a moron from being a moron. Borrell is a moron and him repeating late nutjob John McCain's "truism" about Russia being a gas station shows what kind of human material is pushed to the top in EU.

The Russian economy is small compared to the other major geopolitical players, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in an interview with the El Pais news outlet published on Saturday. Speaking about relations between the EU and China, Borrell suggested that Beijing, unlike Moscow, is a “real geopolitical player” which should not be underestimated or isolated. Russia, on the other hand, is too weak in economic terms due to its dependency on energy exports, he alleged. “Russia is an economic dwarf, it is like a gas station whose owner has an atomic bomb,” Borrell stated.

I guess explaining to this Catalan cretin that Moscow and oblast combined alone have a larger economy than that of Spain will be the waste of time, but at least Russia has energy, right? This aeronautical "engineer" obviously never learned what modern extraction is and what amount of real hi-tech goes into it. But his quip is a combination of the EU required stupidity and frustration growing inside the ranks of EU's bureaucracy. No worry, Mr. Borrell--you, same as organization you represent, are America's lunch, so, keep parading yourself as the idiot you are--the only type fit for running EU (into the ground), others need not apply. Even if they have two degrees in Operational Research.

Larry Posted An Importnat Observation.

I  concur. 

I am more sanguine than the New York Times about Russia’s economic prospects. The war has stimulated a vast acceleration in Russia’s production of all things military. This is going to heat up the economy. Because Russia is self-sufficient in food and energy — the critical expenses that can hurt a family — the negative consequences of inflation are likely to be muted when it comes to the Russian consumers. I think the economic analysis proffered by the NY Times is based on the assumption that Russia remains vulnerable to Western economic pressures. That is no longer a valid benchmark. During the last 18 months Russia has been busy forging new economic ties with non-Western countries and establishing new trade dynamics.

At home, Russian workers have seen wages increase and Russian factories are struggling to keep up with demand. Instead of shuttering factories, Russia is building new ones and stepped up dramatically its production of tanks, combat aircraft, cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles, artillery ammunition and military vehicles. Russia enjoys one advantage the West does not — it is virtually self-sufficient in essential commodities, rare earth minerals and energy.

Here is an important point. Russia dedollarized dramatically. In mid 2010s banks would accept USDs outright, now--unless it is a brand new clean straight bill (such as $100) they will not even bother. Ruble rules and if 10 years ago you still could use USD sometimes as a payment say in taxicab, now--forget it. Only Rubles. The volatility of the exchange rate, now getting under control of Russia's CB, didn't affect overwhelming majority of population. Speculators and rich fat cats? Nobody gives a damn about them. 

The other thing of note: Western cars' service. Well, Russians simply started to produce parts themselves. No, not just buying from China, but domestic production. One of my closest friends drives (what a maroon, LOL)) 2020 Land Rover. Well, naturally he had to change both the water pump and some electric gizmo--both made in Russia. Guess what, he thanks God non-stop that these are Russian-made parts, work beautifully. Mind you, this is roughly $60,000 car. Again, when you have resources and massive machine building complex--this is all you need. And now NATO wants to freeze SMO. Well, no. SMO continues and we ain't seen nothing yet.

It Is Getting Boring...

... in its sheer triviality and stupidity akin to "disclosing" a fact of human mortality to a 60 year old mortician.  

Regulators closed troubled Silicon Valley Bank after deposit outflows and a failed capital raise plunged the country's 16th largest bank into crisis, roiling the larger lending industry. It became the largest bank to fail since Seattle's Washington Mutual during the height of the 2008 financial crisis and, behind Washington Mutual, the second largest bank failure in U.S. history. It is also the first bank to fail since 2020. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged the industry turmoil Friday, saying there are "a few" banks the department is closely watching. 

Don't worry, they will come up with yet another definition of "industry turmoil" and, probably, will define it as a Type A supernova in the vicinity of the Solar System, at which point it wouldn't matter how it all ends, or possibly as Moon falling to Earth. In both cases that would still serve only one purpose--to cover up a complete bankruptcy of the Dollar-based financial system and of the US finances being nothing more than an elaborate Ponzi scheme, concocted by people who never produced anything in their lives but quarterly reports and Power Point presentations.  

The desperation is palpable, but there is no happy ending here--all Ponzi schemes collapse because they run out of empty air to sell. Here is one of the exhibits of the Wall Street types' "skills". 

Former Goldman Sachs banker Roger Ng was sentenced by a US court to ten years in prison on Thursday for his role in embezzling billions of dollars from Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund. The verdict follows Ng’s initial conviction back in April last year, when he was found guilty of helping Tim Leissner, his former boss at Goldman Sachs, drain money from the fund. Goldman Sachs helped 1MDB, a fund set up in 2009 to finance development projects in Malaysia, raise $6.5 billion through bond sales back in 2012 and 2013. According to US prosecutors, some $4.5 billion of these funds were diverted by Ng and his co-conspirators in the process. They were then used for bribes to government officials, purchases of high-end real estate and other luxury items. According to the Department of Justice, some of the money even went to finance the 2013 Leonardo DiCaprio film ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’, which is itself a story of defrauding and money laundering.

The time is running out for many in Washington, and when stealing and BSing is the only type of degree one needs to get to the corridors of powers, what would one expect as a result? And BSing is in progress as I type it--on an industrial scale.  

The Pentagon's plan for scaling up production of the shells over the next two years marks a breakthrough in the effort to quench Ukraine's thirst for weapons. But the conflict has laid bare deep-seated problems that the United States must surmount to effectively manufacture the arms required not just to aid its allies but also for America's self-defense should conflict erupt with Russia, China or another major power. Despite boasting the world's largest military budget - more than $800 billion a year - and its most sophisticated defense industry, the United States has long struggled to efficiently develop and produce the weapons that have enabled U.S. forces to outpace their peers technologically. Those challenges take on new importance as conventional conflict returns to Europe and Washington contemplates the possibility of its own great-power fight.

As I already stated--you cannot explain to an average WaPo or NYT bottom feeder or some Congress dweller what real war economy is and why the US finds itself in a classic vicious circle of diminishing returns. It is a combination of factors, among which technological and warfare ignorance of the US "elites" is one of the most important. Just yesterday, Russia ran out of missiles and high-precision weapons... again, if you know what I mean. 

Russia’s overnight missile attack on Thursday showered Ukraine with an array of missiles, in one of Moscow’s biggest aerial assaults for months. Nearly half a million people are without power in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, following the latest barrage of strikes, according to the regional governor. And there are concerns about how effectively Ukraine can stand up to such bombardments. “They’re sending a very strong signal to everyone in Ukraine, and to perhaps some of our refugees outside of Ukraine, that life is very far from returning to normal despite the fact that over recent weeks there was more quiet,” Alexander Rodnyansky, an economic adviser to Zelensky, told CNN.

These things are so beyond the experiences of Western decision makers, be them civilian or military, that it is impossible to explain it to them--they simply have no intellectual faculty and education for grasping this. Which brings us to this, now notorious, Daily Mail piece when discovering:    

As British supermarkets ration eggs and an array of fruit and vegetables amid shortages provoked in large part by the Ukraine war, no such hardships afflict Vladimir Putin's citizens. The pictures were taken at a food hall, two superstores and a corner shop in Perm, a city with a population the size of Birmingham in the Ural mountains, a 24-hour drive from Moscow. The images suggest the West's much-vaunted sanctions on Russia, imposed to punish President Putin for his invasion, are not having a deep bite. What's more, the scenes are a reversal of 40 years ago, when many of us watched pitiful TV footage of Russians under the Communist regime queuing for staples such as bread and eggs. Now it's Britain's turn to suffer. Supermarkets here are rationing tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers and lettuces as UK farmers struggle with higher energy costs which stop them using hothouses in winter to grow them. Soft fruit, including raspberries, are also hard to find in the shops.

Again, I repeat, you cannot explain why and how it works to an average Western "master of discourse"--many of them still believe that their post-WW II economic recovery was some kind a miracle of American benevolence and financial trickstery of Bretton Woods. It was way more complex than that, and if not for the events on the Eastern Front in 1941-44 even Bretton Woods System wouldn't have been possible--now try to explain this to Blinken or BoJo with Sunak. So, it is getting boring listening (and reading) about combined West discovering basic truths of life, based on not elaborate BS but on objective economic, social and military laws in whose study and application West failed miserably. But even exceptionalists and neocons are forced to admit through their teeth:

The growing presence of Russian submarines off the coast of the United States has sparked Cold War comparisons from military observers and a retired NATO admiral. The Russian military has undergone a sweeping modernization drive after it was forced to abandon many new ships following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The Russian navy now commands one of the most diverse submarine fleets in the world, with an estimated 58 vessels. Some of them are capable of carrying ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, which Moscow considers key to its strategic deterrent. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been set on expanding Russia's underwater capabilities. Over the past several years, Moscow has been producing a series of submarines that have the capability to reach the most critical targets in the U.S. or continental Europe.

Yep, that is called deterrence. Hey, at least in terms of diversity Russian Navy does well, wink, wink;) Did anyone ask how non-stop sanctioned Russia managed to come up with this "diverse" extremely advanced fleet?

The Country With Tattered Economy (c).

Well, we can forgive an intellectual mediocrity with community organizer background for ignorance, but the way Russia's economy which supposed to be "in tatters" performs is best illustrated with that.

A new advanced Borei-class nuclear-powered submarine was among three warships that entered service in the Russian Navy on Thursday. Another boat of the same class, which is designed to carry Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles, was floated for the first time on the same day. The Russian military conducted three simultaneous ceremonies, during which naval flags were raised on the new vessels, marking the formal beginning their active service. The Borei-class submarine ‘Generalissimus Suvorov’ was the largest and most powerful of the three. Boats of that class form the backbone of the naval component of Russia’s modern nuclear deterrence. She is the sixth ship of her kind and was welcomed into service in the city of Severodvinsk in northern Russia, but is slated to join the Pacific Fleet. 

As I am on record--explaining to lay person what it means to build such a monstrous machine as Borei-class SSBN may take a few years and will require a serious elaboration on subjects ranging from nuclear propulsion to spherical trigonometry and battle management systems, in other words--to explain that this is THE real high-tech, not some BS of Twitter and Facebook. 

As sad as it sounds, but it is the way it is, that the most advanced technologies are produced in the war-making business and make killing machines a pinnacle of human scientific and technological advancement. So, Russia has now 7 (seven) state-of-the-art SSBNs afloat and she only accelerates in expanding her submarine fleet. 

In other news from "tattered economy", Russia reminded Kiev regime today that she can continue to run out of cruise missiles as long as it takes. It was a reminder that one shouldn't (the message is for the US, really) try to launch shit--another one was shot down today over Saratov--against Russia's strategic objects, such as Engels strategic aviation base--because, in the end, Rammstein is absolutely defenseless. RAND can wet-dream whatever it wants about "de-escalating" by attacking Moscow, but, I am positive, there are at least few still competent people in there, who should understand that if Russia decides to go all in even in conventional strike--most of NATO navies and HQs in Europe and US proper will not survive for long. 

But then there is Russian saying: if you constantly need to forbid the language, to remove monuments, to destroy history--maybe you are building your nation on somebody's land? That is an excellent reference to 404 removing the monument of the founder of the Russian city of Odessa Empress Catherine the Great. So, before it looked like that:

Now, you can see this "composition" like this:

Pretty much self-explanatory and reflects well not on 404, which is done as a country anyway, but on puppeteers from D.C. who are lacking class, culture and history. 

In related news, I heard today Stephen Walt, of The Israel Lobby fame, gave the interview to Foreign Policy rag. 

I read the gist of it. Good God, with "realists" like this who needs neocons. I am on record--the whole of the Political Science and International Relations diploma mill in the US is an absolute academic fraud. Walt should have continued with his biochemistry degree and avoided going into the geopolitics with minimal, if any, understanding of global power balance and mechanism which form it. But, hey, what do I know. I guess I need to write a new book on that, wink, wink;)

I Already Touched On It In My Video...

... today, but I will reiterate by posting these screenshots from today:

Or this:

Just a brief review of headlines tells you everything you need to know, because these are headlines of economic collapse, albeit for now reflected only in terms of finances and stock market which, although not a real economy, can serve as a digest to panic which grips the "elite", because for many of them it will mean more than just financial losses. The reason being of many people "on the top" facing some very unpleasant things like... like... hm being hunted down by some angry people (wink, wink)? 

But, of course, these are all only partial manifestations, because the whole West's "planning" continues to fly out the window since Western elites have no clue about anything:

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says Russia's war in Ukraine, now in its eighth month, will have a greater impact on the global economy than previously expected. The OECD said on September 26 that it had slashed its growth forecast for the global economy to 2.2 percent in 2023 from a previous estimate of 2.8 percent."The world economy is paying a high price for Russia’s unprovoked, unjustifiable, and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine," the OECD said in a regular report updating its economic outlook.

Ah, poor-poor dears--this is what happens when you study "economics" and "political science" in all those prestigious "schools" in the modern West. The issue, of course, is much deeper and much more complicated than "growth", much of it merely by cooking books--the main subject taught at Ivy League economic departments--but it is the issue of geopolitical realignment which is wiping out the last myths of West's dominance and exposes its complete degeneration. 

At this moment I am still trying to process, because it is difficult to grasp in purely professional military terms, this BS about "response" to Russia "using nuclear weapons in Ukraine", because it is so beyond normality that it is difficult to put a finger on a particulars in this sheer insanity and desperation.  The only thing which comes close to this absurdity is, of course, fabled methods of defense by chicken lawyer from Futurama:

 

Which, in some weird way, reflects the thinking process of people in Washington and I want to immediately point out that I am not on the side of those who think that all this sheer insanity is deliberate. No, not at all, there is no plan, there never was, they are that stupid. As Mr. Helmholtz Smith points out at Larry's blog:

Crashing Russia will be easy. It doesn’t make anything – gas station masquerading as a country. rapidly aging and shrinking population – Weak Country with a Nuclear Arsenal – Russia’s Weak Strongman – Russia’s Strength Is Its Weakness. And lots more where those came from. As Hitler said, just one kick – stop buying their gas, they’ll hang Putin and come crawling back. Our rulers have been surrounded for years by people telling them this. Anyone who said that Russia has a big and very self-sufficient economy, that Putin is quite popular and at least half of his critics think he’s too soft, that money from gas sales to Europe are nice but there are lots of other customers, that you can’t be secure unless the other guy feels secure – what happened to them? You know the answer. They never got the chance to tell the bosses this and they never got in the door. And, when they did say these things – on the fringes far away from “trusted sources” and “fact checkers” – they were condemned as Putin apologists and their social media accounts were blocked. After all you can’t give a platform to disinformation when there’s so much real information from real experts like Martin Walker who told us in 2006 “But strategically, Russia’s real weaknesses are getting worse and its non-oil economy is lagging ever further behind its Indian and Chinese rivals.” Stupid or smart, the bosses were only told one thing by everyone who got to them and year after year they ignored all the counter evidence. That’s stupid. But it’s pleasing, especially to mediocre minds, to be told that you’ve got both might and right in your corner and your skillful management and nuanced understanding deserve another pay raise. For years, the same old stuff, over and over amplified and repeated – just one kick.

Or as Forrest Gump used to say--“Stupid is as stupid does.” Systemic collapse in progress, anyone?

You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet.

Remember, I was unapologetic about quoting BTO a few days ago? Now, Vladimir Putin quotes it, sort of, so to speak:

What does he mean by this. This is exactly what he means and what I warned about for years, with SMO being a kinetic resolution to a collapsing Pax Americana.

They should have realized that they had already lost from the very beginning of our special military operation, because its beginning also means the beginning of a complete breakdown of the American world order. 

They still didn't recognize that while Russia was playing relatively nice, they had the chance to arrange their defeat with proper decorum and diplomatic niceties, and, maybe, even benefit from it in the long run. But that is not how Western "elites" are brought up and "educated" and they double down, violating the main principle of escaping from the deep hole--you must stop digging to have a chance. But not these guys. 

I am also on record that Russian Armed Forces are using a small fraction of its forces in SMO and even this small fraction, aided by heroic LDNR militias, has demolished VSU as an organized force in 3 months. You don't have to listen to me on this issue--a number of US (and European) military experts admit that before SMO VSU were second largest, after Turkey, army in Europe and were probably second in terms of military capability, not to mention the fact of a direct NATO command and ISR. That is why I repeat ad nauseam--this is not Afghanistan 2.0, this is much-much worse for the Western world and this specimen is just the first to be removed from power, because he, including through his sophomoric PR, contributed mightily to turning already inconsequential, for emerging global new order, UK into a full blown chapiteau circus. Look at this guy:

He has imbecile written all over his face. If proud Britons couldn't recognize what they were voting for (not that Labor is better in any way), then they totally deserve what they voted for. Who's next? Olaf Scholz? Possible! Who do we have in the chain of command in the US if Joe gets somehow removed? Right:

   

Lord, have mercy on all of us in the West, because this is not going to end well, especially when Putin says openly: you want to fight Russia? Try. What ain't we seen yet? I have some speculations in military sphere which I can indulge myself into, but even what we know as of today is enough to conclude--and, again, I speak about this for years--the combined West (read the US and NATO) lost the arms race. They also cannot grasp the scale of things. 

Russia appears to be on track for a much shallower recession than was initially expected this year, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing experts. Surging oil shipments have blunted the impact of US and EU sanctions, they say. According to the publication, economists from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and other big banks are slashing their outlooks for the drop in output this year to as little as 3.5%. Russian officials, some of whom foresaw a contraction of as much as 12%, are now preparing to update their forecasts to less than half of that.

These are cretins who run combined West.  Read my lips: these people cannot find their own ass with their own both hands in a brightly lit room. Good luck to all of us, because, indeed, we ain't seen nothing yet.

About Symbols.

People love symbols. It is only natural and when a complete disassembly of Nazi Azov org happened in Mariupol a few days ago, very many people started to give to the fact of Azov's big honcho--in reality he is one of a few ones--and Western media "darling" Prokopenko and whatever his deputy call sign is, Kalina or what have you, too much significance. Some said that he surrendered, then it was refuted, then "confirmed" again, and so it was this back-and-forth for a couple of days but in reality, tactical, operational and strategic reality of today's Mariupol, it made very little difference, because it was mostly a symbolic thing. Those 2,000+ of Nazis who already surrendered by that time were in themselves a huge value for Russia and LDNR in terms of intel. 

Well, now the surrender of this Azov's commander is fully confirmed and he was taken away by Russians in the armored vehicle since there were very many people of Mariupol who wanted to lynch him for his and his subordinates' crimes (in Russian). Yet, there is no denial of the powerful symbolism of all this, since in roughly two months a much numerically inferior Russian force not only took a major urban center and its vicinity but in doing so completely annihilated what was considered the best fighting force of VSU and Ukie Nazis and now many of those Russian forces, after some regrouping will be aiding at the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk axis where another roughly 15,000 of VSU and Nazis force is being annihilated as I type this. Symbolic? Absolutely! Now Kiev desperately needs to construct another "peremoga" (victory) in media to keep the attention of its sponsors from D.C. and Brussels firmly on 404 and own population completely brainwashed.

Well, there is surely a lot of Western "attention" on 404--primarily for its grain which is being "removed" from 404 by anything available. If the rest of Ukraine will go hungry neither Brussels nor D.C. really care, those Slavs are subhumans, after all, at the more they die, the better. Meanwhile Western "economists" continue to wonder--what is going on? 

In accordance to their "science" Russian economy should be "in tatters" but, evidently, it is exactly the other way around and then this "bummer". 

Oil Prices Under Pressure As China Considers Russian Crude

Right. Truth is, the alternative world governing system is being created as I type this, with Russia discussing the exit from most Western "orgs" ranging from WTO to WHO. So much so the process is advanced, that some in Russia even begin to assess (in Russian) the validity of BRICS growing into the alternative G-20. But how about renaming G-7 (you know Great-7) to M-7 (Mediocre-7)? It will be very symbolic but also reflecting perfectly the status of what is commonly known today as the combined West. And that brings us to the issue of power projection which the person (Gevorg Mirzoyan), who authored the piece on BRICS, fails to understand--larger Eurasia, the Heartland if to follow classic (and redundant) geopolitics is a unique landmass, which requires absolutely different approaches to "power projection" than what became known from the American way of projecting power. But that is a separate huge issue which requires a professional treatment. 

In purely Sitrepish news. Read the excellent note from Larry Johnson on Desna:

Desna Is Just One Disaster for the Ukrainian Military

Plus  Andrei Raevsky gives a good report on Shoigu's statements. So, here is you primer for Friday.

A Simple Request And A Sitrep, Of Sorts.

Guys, a simple request--and I know, everyone wants to know and have some guidance--but, please, do not expect me to respond to every kind of re-posted twitter by some shithead from some London and Washington's think-tank or media and debunk their BS. It is physically impossible for me, and suffice it to say that I am on record already--bar some very few exceptions of a professional and objective analysis from Western professionals (i.e. Macgregor, Ritter, Armstrong, Saker et al), the reporting and analyzing Russia's operation in 404 by US military "experts", including all those senior and highest ranked officers, disqualifies them completely from being taken seriously and as people who know the subject. No wonder then to see the US war record of the last 75 years. Responding to other "professors" of what have you who spew plain simple ukie propaganda--there is no even need to discuss that. The West is in full blown war against Russia and because of that there is no low and lying they will not stoop to. I already pointed out the main reasons for that.

Now, yesterday's Russian MoD report on intermediate demolition of VSU and Nazi formations. 

You don't need to know Russian to understand what is shown, with the exception of 12, 420 ukie KIAs, MIAs and critical ones, meaning most of them will not live. It is a projection, but I see no reason to not believe it, because this fits quite well into the intensity of the combat and Russian Army being very restrained in terms of using an overwhelming fire power in order to save primarily civilian lives but also not to incur catastrophic losses on VSU, which for all intents and purposes already doesn't exist as a coherent force. As was expected, of course, Nazis didn't allow civilians to use humanitarian corridors and continue to use them as human shield. The responsibility for that lies with the West, especially the United States who encourage their Nazi proxies to behave in such a way as to create a "picture" for Western media to use as propaganda. 

The mopping up of Mariupol has already begun and both LDNR and Russian forces will do their utmost to reduce civilian losses to a minimum--as always that means higher losses for Russian and LDNR forces, but it is Russia's fate, always. The info on US biolabs in 404 continues to be released and the scale there was really impressive, from developing anthrax to collecting Slavic DNA, I guess they want to "improve" Slavic race, namely Russians to a full extinction. Been there, done that. So, dogs bark but caravan passes on. 

The main news, however, are on economic front and, mind you, Russia didn't even start to introduce her own counter-sanctions. What has been done is the creation of the list of "unfriendly" nations and that means that Russian firms can pay their dividends in Rubles, to Russian banks, while United Russia is preparing the legislature on nationalization of the assets of those Western companies which leave Russia (in Russian). This is just the warmup. The big badaboom comes with energy and even here:

Russia-Ukraine war has Wall Street totally confused

It is a very misleading headline because confusion is spreading throughout Western economic and political institutions like a brush fire on a hot dry day. Brent Crude is now at $137 per barrel, and gas... oh, boy...

Crude oil prices fell to their lows of the day and European natural gas prices retreated after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Europe's largest economy has no option but to keep buying Russian oil and gas.

"At the moment, the supply of energy for heating, for mobility, for electricity generation and for industry cannot be secured any other way," Scholz said in a press statement confirming that Germany will continue to transact with Russian energy companies.

Well, what can I say--can you imagine what will happen to Boeing and Airbus once Russia releases all those 520 commercial aircraft, which she doesn't need anymore, back to the West? As Bernhard correctly concludes in his latest:

All the consequences of the 'west's' reaction to Russia's move were foreseeable. It is pure recklessness and stupidity that have allowed them to take place. The 'west' will now get punished for the bad movie it has launched.

Frankly, I never saw anything like this in my life. Like never. And if the United States was planning to drive Europe into utter submission, something went really wrong with planning, because the impact on the US is already massive and it is just the start, it will get much worse and I am talking about Great Depression type situation.

The average price of a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline in California is now a whopping $5.28, compared with $3.73 at the same time a year ago, according to the latest data from the American Automobile Assn. In Los Angeles County, the average gas price for regular-grade fuel is $5.37 per gallon — up from $4.67 a month ago and $3.79 a year ago, according to AAA. The national average is $4 per gallon. Experts say Russia's war on Ukraine and an increase in gas demand coupled with a reduction in total supply are contributing to the prices, which will probably keep rising as crude prices continue to climb.

This is simply unsustainable. In Washington prices are hovering now above $4.09 a gallon and continue to rise. But Europe will be first to fall. So, this is this Monday's primer and the West's suicide continues. 

Kherson Is Taken.

Russian Army took a major city of Kherson (in Russian) and that opens roads towards Nikolaev and Odessa. It also completes a land bridge between Crimea and and operational zone. 

Meanwhile, accountants and stock traders in the US, who pass for economists for some reason,  parade themselves as clowns yet again. Here is a quick demonstration:

More than two decades ago, on August 17, 1998, Russia defaulted on its debt and devalued the ruble, sparking a political crisis that culminated with Vladimir Putin replacing Boris Yeltsin and which also eventually resulted in the spectacular implosion of a then little known hedge fund called Long Term Capital Management (which was staffed to the gills with "brilliant" Nobel prize winners) which after receiving a Fed-led Wall Street bailout, ushered in the era of too big to fail. We bring this up because in just a few hours, Russia will be in another technical default. Amid the flurry of capital controls imposed by Moscow today, the Russian central bank banned coupon payments to foreign owners of ruble bonds known as OFZs in what it said was a temporary step to shore up markets in the wake of international sanctions. What it really is, is a technical default on upcoming interest and maturity payments, with a trigger due as soon as tomorrow.

The first question here is, of course, that all these London-based "analysts" do not understand the difference between default as a failure of payments on financial obligations and the RESPONSE, as a deliberate withholding of payments, for geopolitical reasons. The expropriation of the Western assets in Russia will follow. They just don't get it. Which, BTW, reference to Russia's default of 1998 betrays completely. Russia in 1998 was an economic basket case, Russia of 2022 is economic superpower. As I said, I reiterate, any degree in "economics" from any Western educational institution is degree in nothing and is absolutely worthless, because it provides, at best, some basic accountant courses and courses in demagoguery in financial matters. Those "degrees" provide zero tools for strategic planning because they DO NOT teach how real economy operates. All these courses could be compressed into the 12-16 weeks program with issuing accountant certificate. 

Russia MoD released first data on Russia's losses. 498 KIAs, VSU lost 2,800 and I doubt anybody really counts corpses of nazis. This is war, losses are inevitable. Considering, however, a huge scope of operation the losses are light. Yes, I know, somebody loses their sons, fathers, brothers, but that's war, not a computer game. Meanwhile, a sewer such as NYT continues to supply a copious amount of propaganda BS (most of it compiled under supervision of CIA in Poland) and now states this: 

WASHINGTON — Plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages, some Russian troops in Ukraine have surrendered en masse or sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting, a senior Pentagon official said Tuesday.

LOL. Pentagon, of course, is now seriously butt-hurt for a number of reasons, among which Russia exposing US military as a paper-tiger designed to fight third world weaklings is a major one. It is really pathetic, not to mention the fact that all NYT, WaPo and other "senior officials" from anywhere are themselves who invent all kinds of utter BS. Obviously, these cretins do not know that there are NO conscripts in operational zone. But then again, try to explain to Western presstitude with degree in glorified English what real war is and how it is fought, goo luck with that. They will not be able to report on it honestly even if they wanted to, they simply have no grasp of what REAL war is and what goes into it. The West lives in alternative reality and sees its institutions implode as I type it. 

Europe’s Gas Prices Soar 60% To Record High As Buyers Shun Russia. 

This is just the warmup, folks. You ain't seen nothing yet. EU has to prepare itself to what is coming and what is coming, as I and other warned for years, is an utter destruction of European industries. Russia, meanwhile, is happy since her hydrocarbons are eagerly awaited in Asia. Well, what did you expect from Europe which has as its leader a gynecologist and specialist in children's medicine. So, here is a brief sitrep. I will abstain for now from discussing in depth Russia's economy because it is very dynamic and huge nationalization  is in progress. But hey, let's West deal with its own BS, we know the result already. OODA, baby, OODA. Try to explain it to a lawyer in US Congress what it is and how it is done.

It Was So Difficult To Predict, Not.

Obviously, the issue of causality is not well-known to EU leaders, because in their make-believe world you just wish things and they magically appear out of a thin air. The fact that actions have consequences is too difficult for them to grasp. 

Power and gas prices are hitting fresh records almost daily, and some energy-intensive companies have temporarily shut operations because they’re becoming too expensive to run. As winter approaches and Europeans start to turn on their heaters, the squeeze will intensify, pushing more executives into tough decisions about keeping plants open. Ammonia producer SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz GmbH is among those that’s been forced into drastic steps. The German company, which burns through 640 gigawatt hours of natural gas each year, equivalent to about 50,000 households, said Tuesday it will cut production by 20% to offset rising gas prices. “It doesn’t make sense to make ammonia at these price levels,” said Chief Executive Officer Petr Cingr. “A complete production stop looms if the government doesn’t act.” On Wednesday, the European Union issued a fresh warning and said it will outline measures including tax cuts and state aid that governments can use to help. “This price shock cannot be underestimated,” EU energy chief Kadri Simson said. “If left unchecked, it risks compromising Europe’s recovery.”

At this stage it doesn't matter how one tries to rationalize this clusterfuck but you can bet your ass on Russia, in the end, being blamed for all of it, including bad education of European "elites" who have no grasp of the modern world and how it operates. I say, go even greener, that will show them all how to run any country...into the ground. Yet, morons remain (and will remain) morons. 

Already hurt by coronavirus lockdowns, many of Germany’s smaller firms decided against securing long-term energy supplies earlier this year and can’t afford to catch up now as gas prices are so high, according to Andreas Loeschel, professor of resource economics at Ruhr-University Bochum. “So much depends on the the demand side of the equation,” he said, referring to the potential for a colder-than-expected winter. “A number of unlikely events are building up to cause a situation we’ve never seen before.”

No shit! I have a question to this "professor"--has it occurred to him that there are such things in the world as "contingency planning", "good engineering", "sound energy policies" and other things of this nature which are called in the world of normal people "preparedness". No? Never heard of it? Obviously not, because in the world of European in general, and German in particular, totalitarian politics loyalty to ideological radical orthodoxy of "Green Energy", LGBTQIRS madness which fill in the voids left by serious professionals and scientists who do not want to fight (I don't blame them) human insanity, is more important than seeking the truth. 

One would expect this in a third world but when one of the top 10 German universities produces such "specialists" in, and you may have guessed it already, "economics", what do you expect?

An der Universität Duisburg-Essen sollen gute Prüfungsnoten gegen Bargeld verkauft worden sein. Die Staatsanwalt Essen ermittele "im Bereich der Korruptionsdelikte", sagte ein Sprecher der Behörde. Aus ermittlungstaktischen Gründen wollte die Staatsanwaltschaft "zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt" keine weiteren Details nennen. Die Universität habe selbst Strafanzeige erstattet. Mit rund 40.000 Studierenden ist die Universität Duisburg-Essen eine der zehn größten deutschen Unis. Nach Informationen der "Westdeutschen Allgemeinen Zeitung" geht es um Prüfungen der Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften. Ermittelt werde gegen eine Verwaltungsmitarbeiterin der auf dem Essener Campus angesiedelten Fakultät sowie gegen rund 50 Studierende. Diese sollen der Sachbearbeiterin jeweils 800 Euro in bar überreicht haben, damit sie im Computersystem der Uni aus einer nicht bestandenen Prüfung (Note 5) eine bestandene machte (Note 4). Ausgelöst worden seien die Ermittlungen durch einen anonymen Hinweis

Translation:  Good exam grades are said to have been sold for cash at the University of Duisburg-Essen. The public prosecutor of Essen is investigating "into the area of ​​corruption offenses," said a spokesman for the authority. For tactical reasons, the public prosecutor did not want to give any further details "at this point in time". The university itself filed a criminal complaint. With around 40,000 students, the University of Duisburg-Essen is one of the ten largest German universities. According to information from the "Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung", it is about exams for the Faculty of Economics. The investigation will be carried out against an administrative employee of the faculty located on the Essen campus and against around 50 students. These are said to have given the clerk 800 euros each in cash so that she can turn a failed exam (grade 5) into a passed exam (grade 4) in the university's computer system. The investigation was triggered by an anonymous tip.

I think those 50 students are the perfect candidates for the top political positions in Germany (and EU) and I am sure with such excellent backgrounds they will contribute immensely to furthering insane suicidal economic, foreign policy and cultural agendas born primarily in the deep recesses of the European (and American) radical left because of a difficulty of serious STEM education and a relative ease of a "humanities" one. Education in design and engineering of nuclear power station is much more difficult (orders of magnitude) than forays into the pseudo-scientific demagoguery of Derrida or the study of monetarism. Hence, more free time is allocated to radicalization and developing a desire to destroy anything good, productive or beautiful. It is especially easy to do when it takes only 800 Euros to get a passing grade in the subject which is not even real economics as Michael Hudson (correctly) describes.  

My point was that the way the economy is described in the press and in University courses has very little to do with how the economy really works. The press and journalistic reports use a terminology made of well crafted euphemisms to confuse understanding of how the economy works.

Yes, and that is why Europe is going down, while China will pay ANY price for the resources which she desperately needs. In this, EU loses, China wins. Recall my table, China has a severe deficit of energy. Europe doesn't want Russia and Russia doesn't want Europe anymore, certainly not EU. Even Merkel concedes today:

(Bloomberg) -- Outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel dismissed charges that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is partly to blame for the record spikes in European gas prices.  “To my knowledge, there are no orders where Russia has said we won’t deliver it to you, especially not with regard to the pipeline in Ukraine,” Merkel told reporters Wednesday. “Russia can only deliver gas on the basis of contractual obligations, and not just only like that.”  

Europe did it to herself,  she made her bed, now she must sleep in it. Russia is orienting her energy towards China and Asia in general. Russia will work with European nations on a bi-lateral bases, such as recent contract with Hungary, and considering what modern European elites are, there are virtually no chances of normal relations between Europe and Russia, only minimal needed and Russia will hold her nose. In related news--nothing new:

Officials from NATO have reportedly decided to slash the size of the permanent Russian delegation working to build ties with the US-led military bloc at its headquarters in Brussels, revoking the credentials of eight envoys. 

Same as this: 

The Russian authorities have hit back at suggestions by four US senators that American President Joe Biden should expel 300 diplomats, and warned that Moscow would close all of Washington’s missions on Russian soil in retaliation.“There aren’t even that many Russian diplomats in Washington,” the Foreign Ministry stated. “Those who propose such steps are apparently pushing for the closure of American offices in Russia. They should understand that the responsibility for this will be theirs.”On Tuesday, Senators Bob Menendez, Marco Rubio, Mark Warner and Jim Risch wrote a letter to Biden, urging him to take “immediate action to increase staffing at the US embassy in Moscow.” The American mission has been faced with a personnel shortage since the US was listed on Moscow’s official list of ‘unfriendly countries,’ meaning that it is banned from employing locals.

You cannot talk to these people. You cannot reason with them because they do not live in the real world and are people utterly unqualified for any serious activity in foreign affairs because they do not understand the outside world. They can't, they lack basic mechanisms of developing the awareness--a defining feature of America's political class. But then again, in the United States there is no way you can buy your passing grade in the university, like never. Right, right?

Some Hint For Larry Wilkerson (And His Partners in Video).

Colonel Larry Wilkerson, speaking to a couple of people on the video-conference in April this year--around the time regime in Kiev decided to play games grown-ups play--and Wilkerson, who is a  D.C. insider didn't mince words about real situation. Watch, and listen, what he says between 7:00 and 16:00 in the interview and mind you, the guy was Chief of Staff of then Secretary of the State Colin Powell. 

He doesn't really say anything new for anyone who read me (this blog and books) for the last 7 years, but he reiterates one point which I try to stress non-stop for many years and this is, as Larry says, verbatim: "we don't know anything about that." That being, of course, a real war. Then he proceeds with his (or article he read) estimate on the number of casualties the United States will sustain in case of the war with someone like Russia or China and the reaction of Larry's partners speaks volumes. Wilkerson's number is at 40,000 in the first week. Compare this to Douglas Macgregor's estimate of the US casualties, say in war in Europe, which he puts around 300,000+ in total, with 110,000 of them KIAs in the first 110 days in WW I. 

Many forget that Vietnam, for all of its turmoil, was a protracted, 10-year long, war in which US casualties were accumulating over significant periods of time--many months and years. Wilkerson is correct asking what I call a Zumwalt question--what would D.C. do, how will it react, when it will be getting that kind of numbers killed and wounded, not to mention losses in high value and prestigious assets, such as combat aircraft, let alone combat ships, not to speak of aircraft carriers. Is the United States ready to take this in? Absolutely not, this is not even a theorem, it is an axiom. Wilkerson's story about Obama asking both Powell and Wilkerson during the meeting in the White House on how to get out of this Washington's "bias toward war" is remarkable in a sense that it shows a complete helplessness, in Obama case aggravated by Obama's overall mediocrity (not that anyone before him or after are better) and lack of principles, of the US political "elite" to do anything, even if to imagine that they want to do so, about not fighting wars. 

The system is wound this way, you cannot do anything about it unless you change the system on a fundamental level or provide a massive shock to it. If not, you will continue to get people like Lindsey Graham dominating a political discourse and driving country into the ground, granted very little is left of it. 

But then again, what "democracy"? Who buys this shit anymore? The United States has just elected and sworn to the highest office the guy who barely remembers his name and who has to be pumped with a cocktail of drugs to keep him focused for a few minutes. What do you expect from all that? I largely sat out this whole Afghanistan debacle because I don't kick those who are already on the floor, but political consequences of what we all observed in the last couple of months, from abandoning Bagram to a clusterfuck in Kabul with images which make Saigon imagery pale in comparison, did not even start to arrive in earnest, this all is still ahead of us and, boy, I can tell you--we are in for a ride which this country never experienced before. Remarkably, Biden's (or whoever makes decision for him) decision to escape Afghanistan was strategically correct, it was executed piss poor, but no matter the imagery from Kabul, any withdrawal, even more-or-less orderly one, would have been a declaration of a departure of the United States from its largely self-proclaimed status of hegemon. These are obvious conclusions anyone with IQ slightly higher than room temperature could have arrived to. But the main reason I started to write today, is the fact that I stumbled on this lecture on Mahan and I was perfectly OK with changing my perspective on Mahan from this professor of strategy in Naval War College until, in his Q&A, he gets to what he says on 1:19:00. 

And he gets into this trope about America being "still the biggest economic power in the world." I turned this off. This is the guy who teaches strategy, alright, but he still waxes "service industry" and the myth of Chinese "stealing" shit because "we are so open". Surely, Chinese do steal shit, as does anyone else--it is called an industrial espionage, but did this John Kuehn guy ever heard about House Resolution #4444, or NAFTA, or any other legislative of fiscal instrument developed for the transfer of the US real economy, especially manufacturing, abroad? I understand the United States lies, many countries do, but it is one thing to BS the world for the sake of PR, nowadays met with sarcastic humiliating smiles, but to continue to lie to oneself--when was the last time this "strategy" Doctor Kuehn opened economic statistics, ANY economic statistics? 

Now you see my point, lie and BSing permeates America's political discourse, media and academe. John Kuhn is a former naval aviator and I am damn sure that Boyd's fundamentals of OODA Loop are well known to him, but if this former naval officer convinces himself at the point of the first "O" (Observe) that some redundant, if not harmful, US "service industries", such as a financial one, count for anything towards China producing almost 15 times more steel than the United States (Russia produces almost the same amount as the US) or Chinese shipbuilding industry dwarfing that of the US. Or Chinese car-making, or pretty much anything, with the exception of commercial aerospace, but Russia is helping China on this one.  So, a good start for the United States in terms of beating this bias toward war is to stop lying to themselves. Especially so on the level of an elite officer graduate and post graduate school such as Naval War College. In the end, Kuhn himself can follow Mahan's wise advice and admit that the nation should have a naval force commensurate with its economic capability and there is a reason the United States is de facto a bankrupt nation--it continues to maintain a military force and, especially the Navy, which it simply cannot afford. Not even close. 

And then, of course, there is this teeny-weeny issue of revolution in military affairs and the fact that you cannot apply strategic naval wisdom of the 19th century, no matter how tantalizing this may feel, to technological and operational realities of the 21st one. You just cannot, because neither Mahan, not Corbett, nor Fischer could have foresaw fleets engagement envelopes measured in many thousand kilometers, space travel, hyper-sonic weapons, computers and ISR which would make Arleigh Burke and Chester Nimitz teary. Stop lying to yourself and face the facts that the United States failed as a military power, and it will be a real tragedy if it fails as a political entity, which either will slide toward a third-worlddom, a process which was underway for quite some time now, or will disintegrate completely. How about people of South Carolina vote this neocon SOB Lindsey Graham out of the office? I am sure people of South Carolina are smarter than Arizona voters who kept in office late war criminal and supporter of Islamic terrorists John McCain. Hey, one has to start somewhere, right?