How this piece of work is taken seriously by anybody is beyond me. In Russia he is a butt of the jokes, some of them not for the public arena, and that's the difference--majority of Russians laugh at modern Western "elites". Macron already, together with people like Hollande and Merkel, are written in history as pathetic lap-dogs who finished off Europe as a whole, while Macron destroyed what was left of France. It is a panopticon of midgets and their media sycophants, who themselves are human waste.
I can only repeat it. The West's Russia Studies field is a field of fraud and academic waste. Most of Russian history, its scale and scope are beyond the grasp of modern crop of America's "diplomats" and security "studies" graduates. There is now also a serious issue of barely contained complex of inferiority, especially a military one, when one considers an ongoing implosion of Pentagon's doctrinal assumptions, not to speak about military technology so advanced that a hectic activity to cover the loss of the arms race due to graft and military incompetence is ongoing as I type this.
It is a truism, one cannot navigate a complex four-dimensional reality with a two-dimensional vision, but that is what modern West today is. And it cannot be fixed non-surgically anymore. There is a 50,000 grouping of VSU (and NATO "volunteers") around Seversk. It too will be obliterated and those in Pentagon who still can count and see reality know it. I think Larch is correct that this meeting:
Was about Russia explaining to the US consequences of the US deciding to go nuclear. The United States has no defense. As Larry mentions this periodically, with Russia's development of ABM capabilities which already make US ones like a backwater, the US will find itself increasingly tempted to arrest the widening of the gap and considering serious psychiatric issues with neocon cabal driving what passes in Washington for US foreign policy, we cannot discard a scenario where the US will finally completely corner itself--she is already pretty close--and will be forced to make a suicidal decision.
I speak about this, and other things, in my today's latest.
The numbers are simply not there for the West, economically as well as militarily. This is your primer.
Translation:As the head of state noted, Russia produces three times more air defense missiles per year than the United States, and in general, the country's defense industry creates about the same number of missiles for various purposes as all other states in the world. "Our production is comparable to world production (combined, my clarification)," he stressed.
Oh, I agree. People like Kerry DID ignore mathematics and, in general, STEM studies, due to them being primarily lawyers (as Kerry) and political "scientists". In the end, the WEF's big honcho Klaus Schwab's Ph.D. thesis was about... financial loans for the mechanical engineering. I am contemplating writing the Ph.D thesis on the influence of flying RC planes and Lego playing on the non-surgical treatment of severe hemorrhoids in senior citizens. I am sure I can get both my Medical Doctor and Doctor of Engineering degrees through this. I will call the University of Washington tomorrow to inquire about requirements for such advanced programs. So, this is a primer for ya.
P.S. Russia stopped paying dues to European Economic Commission at UN.
TASS reports about the combat use of T-90Ms Proryv in SMO, and quotes tank commanders about the machine (in Russian), They love it. Here are some opinions on a several months long combat use.
Translation:It has been improved - the crew is reliably protected, the tank commander, that is, I am already sitting inside, I don’t have to get out into the street, reload the Kord [machine gun] and fire - I do all this from the inside.Surveillance devices have been improved, I have a panorama, I can look at 360 degrees and do not need to turn my head, I can see everything on the computer.I can also communicate with neighboring tanks without getting in touch, I just write the coordinates to them, we drive up there and we work together.Our T-90 was blown up by an anti-tank mine, the track was not damaged, only the roller was torn off and it left the combat zone under its own power, the entire crew was intact," said the commander of another T-90M "Proryv" tank Ruslan.
I highlighted what is crucial. This is netcentricity and this is the thing which in terms of firepower creates a synergy effect because it increases many fold the effect of tactical surprise and flexibility. All this underscores the futility of the West's attempts to "supply" 404 with whatever obsolete armor it tries to send there. Such as this risible British attempt:
Considering military incompetence of the Western political and military top brass, it all comes down to, and you guessed it already, PR and desire to show that "something is being done". I expand on the issue of West's miscalculations in my latest:
Plus, a good friend of mine, Colonel Trukhan (thanks, Larch), a former operations officer from the Central Apparatus of Russian MoD gave a good interview to (initially) Ukraina.Ru, precisely on the issues concerning a real war, not BS created by all kinds of media-personalities both in the West and Russia who wouldn't be able to command a platoon, let alone brigade or division. Here is a quote:
Translation:- Do what you want.If you want to enjoy victory, enjoy.If you want to comment not enthusiastically - comment.Who is a doctor to whom, everyone will crawl out to his own cemetery.You need to understand that the RF Armed Forces are working systematically and purposefully.The public can react however they want.There are powerful fortified areas that were built for eight years.Why did we let them build?And who wouldn't let them build them?We are not alone on this globe.We built our armed forces, Ukraine built its armed forces.Who was the best at building them?We will see.In 2014, we had almost nothing in those Ukrainian operational areas.This I tell you for sure.Nobody remembers this now, but under Serdyukov even the 20th army was reduced, there was a transition to brigade systems.And when this batch began, when our "northern wind" stopped this genocide that was beginning, we began to build our armed forces absolutely correctly.We started building them from the strategic nuclear triad.Putin "cartoons" showed - sales of diapers have increased.And now these "cartoons" have received material design.
I am on record, remember? US and NATO cannot do strategy, they never could after WW II. It is a cold hard fact of life. Sure, they love to use the term "strategy" but very few in the military-political top in the US have a grasp of what it is. So, what can I say--I already get flack for my pointing out that John Mearsheimer has no clue about strategy, Russia and balance of power--he doesn't have a tool set, as wouldn't any political "scientist", to grasp it. His early 1970s background from USMA at West Point and a few years in the USAF are radically not enough, especially lacking serious military engineering background, for understanding modern operations. Bernhard makes today a note of it, when speaking about Emmanuel Todd:
Remarkably, highlighted in yellow shows a complete ignorance of Todd himself of strategic planning and how Russia approaches war and economy. But then again, he is an anthropologist, what do you expect. He, certainly, didn't read this blog in 2014--early 2015 when I had to pass a diagnosis on the fate of the combined West, but what do I know, I am not anthropologist. So, here is your primer for Saturday.
P.S. About VSU plans for "offensive" to reach Mariupol--Good God, only NYT and WSJ would buy this BS. Yes, with 50 Bradleys and 20 NATO tanks.
Guys, a simple request--and I know, everyone wants to know and have some guidance--but, please, do not expect me to respond to every kind of re-posted twitter by some shithead from some London and Washington's think-tank or media and debunk their BS. It is physically impossible for me, and suffice it to say that I am on record already--bar some very few exceptions of a professional and objective analysis from Western professionals (i.e. Macgregor, Ritter, Armstrong, Saker et al), the reporting and analyzing Russia's operation in 404 by US military "experts", including all those senior and highest ranked officers, disqualifies them completely from being taken seriously and as people who know the subject. No wonder then to see the US war record of the last 75 years. Responding to other "professors" of what have you who spew plain simple ukie propaganda--there is no even need to discuss that. The West is in full blown war against Russia and because of that there is no low and lying they will not stoop to. I already pointed out the main reasons for that.
Now, yesterday's Russian MoD report on intermediate demolition of VSU and Nazi formations.
You don't need to know Russian to understand what is shown, with the exception of 12, 420 ukie KIAs, MIAs and critical ones, meaning most of them will not live. It is a projection, but I see no reason to not believe it, because this fits quite well into the intensity of the combat and Russian Army being very restrained in terms of using an overwhelming fire power in order to save primarily civilian lives but also not to incur catastrophic losses on VSU, which for all intents and purposes already doesn't exist as a coherent force. As was expected, of course, Nazis didn't allow civilians to use humanitarian corridors and continue to use them as human shield. The responsibility for that lies with the West, especially the United States who encourage their Nazi proxies to behave in such a way as to create a "picture" for Western media to use as propaganda.
The mopping up of Mariupol has already begun and both LDNR and Russian forces will do their utmost to reduce civilian losses to a minimum--as always that means higher losses for Russian and LDNR forces, but it is Russia's fate, always. The info on US biolabs in 404 continues to be released and the scale there was really impressive, from developing anthrax to collecting Slavic DNA, I guess they want to "improve" Slavic race, namely Russians to a full extinction. Been there, done that. So, dogs bark but caravan passes on.
The main news, however, are on economic front and, mind you, Russia didn't even start to introduce her own counter-sanctions. What has been done is the creation of the list of "unfriendly" nations and that means that Russian firms can pay their dividends in Rubles, to Russian banks, while United Russia is preparing the legislature on nationalization of the assets of those Western companies which leave Russia (in Russian). This is just the warmup. The big badaboom comes with energy and even here:
It is a very misleading headline because confusion is spreading throughout Western economic and political institutions like a brush fire on a hot dry day. Brent Crude is now at $137 per barrel, and gas... oh, boy...
Crude oil prices fell to their lows of the day and European natural
gas prices retreated after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that
Europe's largest economy has no option but to keep buying Russian oil
and gas.
Well, what can I say--can you imagine what will happen to Boeing and Airbus once Russia releases all those 520 commercial aircraft, which she doesn't need anymore, back to the West? As Bernhard correctly concludes in his latest:
Frankly, I never saw anything like this in my life. Like never. And if the United States was planning to drive Europe into utter submission, something went really wrong with planning, because the impact on the US is already massive and it is just the start, it will get much worse and I am talking about Great Depression type situation.
This is simply unsustainable. In Washington prices are hovering now above $4.09 a gallon and continue to rise. But Europe will be first to fall. So, this is this Monday's primer and the West's suicide continues.
Our own Peter Williams posted few days ago this video in which yet another YouTube resource tries to sound geopolitical and, in this particular case, describe what is known today as Primakov Doctrine.
Feel free to listen to this 24 minute video and it is very good in terms of providing a refresher for a timeline of Russia's intervention in Syria but that is as far as it goes, because, as you all know--the devil is in details. I will not beat around the bush here and will go for the jugular. This is a good video as a primer for anyone who has zero background in geopolitics, warfare, diplomacy, international relations, Russia and Middle East. But for people who have a clue of who read my blog (or my books) periodically the failure of this analysis is several fold:
1. Creators of this video have a very vague idea how the resources of nations are measured and what, in general, those are and what is involved in those resources' applications;
2. They still reside in alternative universe in which the United States enjoys a uni-polar moment, while in reality we all live in a multi-polar world and the multi-polarity is a fait accompli. In fact, it has been since 2008 when Syria wasn't even in the plans;
3. Primakov Doctrine, while formulated by this outstanding man, is in reality just another reiteration of realities of Russia's central Eurasian position (heartland, if one wishes to use purely geopolitical terms) and of a complete rejection of any uni-polarity in principle.
But these are just general points. And I also give authors the credit where the credit is due when they talk about chimera of "Gerasimov Doctrine", courtesy of a "great" military mind of Mr. Galeotti, but, as I already mentioned above, they fail at looking at number of key factors defining present situation in which, despite undeniable success in Syria, Russia's existential achievement was Crimea and declaration of Russia's return as a sovereign state on the international arena. The second one was a radical economic and military overhaul, which resulted first in a de facto destruction of the US shale oil industry, decoupling form many Western political and economic institutions, which make Russia's Middle Eastern strategies important, but largely fringe in a colossal struggle with the United States for formation of a new international reality.
As today's events in Afghanistan show, and what was predicted by many, yours truly included, the United States was never a power it claimed to be to start with: it was always much weaker across the board--economically, militarily, ideologically and intellectually. The fact that the United States imposes non-ending sanctions on Russia and Russia's weapons is not a sign of strength but of what I am on record ad nauseam for years--the US lost the arms race. Authors of the video are, evidently, not aware of this reality and if Syria was a good showcasing for some of Russia's weapon systems and strategic-operational prowess, these were recent events in Ukraine, with Russia concentrating two armies in a matter of a week or two at Ukrainian border, which convinced the combined West in Russia's ability to defeat NATO or any other forces in any locality which matters for Russia. That is a hint about multi-polarity, BTW. But authors of the video, sadly, still didn't get it.
Nor Soviet and American experiences in Afghanistan are as closely related as many want to believe, despite irresistible desire to draw parallels. I and others wrote so much on that issue (just read Pepe Escobar's superb sitreps) that it doesn't make sense to repeat in detail but: Russia helped the US in Afghanistan, the United States obstructed USSR there and, incidentally, with the effort of Zbig, fanned the flames of Political Islam. I know, Karma is a bitch. So, what is Primakov Doctrine, really? I can tell you--it is his 180 degrees turn in his airplane over Atlantic on the way to the United States, the moment he learned about the start of barbaric NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. It was this gesture of a real statesman which announced for Russians that enough is enough with the West. It was 180 degree turn which will stay as a historic event in Russia and which in its powerful symbolism declared the new era for Russians--that was an act of a real man and a patriot. You all know what followed. There is still a discussion in Russia today--who saved Russia, Putin or Primakov, but everyone, without exception understand that it was Primakov who said in 2009 at the celebration of his 80th, when proposed the toast:
Translation:I want to propose a toast for Vladimir Putin. But not only because he just now said many high words about me. But because I saw how this man saved Russia, I will always be loyal to Vladimir Putin, because I am devoted to Russia.
You do remember, of course, that Primakov was a professional intelligence operative and he headed SVR (foreign intelligence service) for 5 years and you know who served in SVR? Yes, many people you see today in Russia's top echelon from Vladimir Putin to other KGB people like Nikolai Patrushev, Sergey Chemezov (counter-intel), Sergei Ivanov (SVR) and others. Primakov's hand helped to guide Russia out of a catastrophe of 1990s and in this sense, Primakov's significance for Russia's and world history exceeds by far the doctrine of his name. Primakov was a Jew who was more Russian than many nominal Russians.
I recall late Lawrence Eagleburger many years ago calling Primakov a "pip squeak". Late Larry was really agitated at CNN (I believe it was CNN) while doing so. Primakov certainly got under his skin. Keep the enemy off balance--the first rule of warfare. Primakov knew how to do it. In terms of video "rating", I would say--people who only begin to dabble into geopolitics: 7 out of 10 (good primer), for experienced people: 5 out of 10.
