This Is My Talking Head For April 5.

I review the issue of "Putin's" (quotation marks are deliberate, it is a collective decision) intentions regarding Europe. 

Of course, things change but many people still do not understand that in a purely civilizational sense Russia and Russians gave up on Europe. The only reason, if it will come to that, and it will, for Russia doing anything positive towards Europe is to contain inevitable economic and social collapse which is already unfolding. In this case supporting buffer states like Hungary and Slovakia, friendly Serbia, makes total sense not just economically but geostrategically, while Latvia was the first among United Baltic Die-outs to agree to Russian conditions on resources. After about 48 hours it proclaimed it would rather die than use Russian gas. Boy, they are a feisty lot there in Latvia. Culturally, meanwhile, Western Europe is finished. 

Here is this French lady (do not forget to turn on Closed Captions) Anne-Laure Bonnel who refuses now to call herself a journalist (I agree) since Western media occupy a much lower rung on the ladder of human depravity than even crack-whores.

I totally understand her and share her view. French media developed a particular hatred of Serbs in 1999 during NATO gang-raping Yugoslavia, and France is the next to fall after Germany. Hey, let them elect Macron again--they want that. 

Per Bucha "massacre", Larry Johnson gives it a write-up: 

While the Bucha propaganda op has been a swimming success in whipping up American fury at fabricated Russian atrocities (the Ukrainian Nationalist Forces have this blood on their hands in my opinion), it has not moved the needle. What is the needle? Convincing the United States, the U.K. and the rest of NATO to enter the fray in Ukraine with actual combatants and NATO operated equipment. NATO is talking tough and posturing like a model in a Madonna video, but when it comes to action–ZIPPO. As I have noted in previous posts, NATO can send all the material it wants to Ukraine and it means nothing. First, can NATO even ensure the safe delivery of any weapons? The short answer is “no.” Russia already has demonstrated it has the ability to precisely target Ukrainian bases hugging the Polish border and wreak havoc. 

Read the whole thing, following the link. "Impotent Rage" is an appropriate qualifier Larry uses. Even now announced Czech 40 T-72B and BMP for Ukraine are just a good target practice. But very many Czechs hate Russian guts and it is understandable what they are doing. Militarily it makes no difference whatsoever,  but Russia keeps the score. As our very own Larch commented on the surrender of remnants of ukie battalion of marines yesterday:

Imagine facing a Chechen commander and discovering God exists and He has mercy on the repentant. These guys are the luckiest. Tens of thousands of others won't have the same destiny soon.

Succinct. And as we all know now, there is 1 to 10 ratio, 1 Nazi "commissar" per 10 regular VSU grunts, who prolong the bloodshed. That explains why many regular VSU die (needlessly, they could have surrendered instead and live) when they have no chance. Well, too bad. The next Ukie thing will be chemical weapons false flag (no, I am not talking about them blowing up acid containers in Rubezhnoe yesterday), this was anticipated and people were evacuated by Russian forces in advance. I am talking about some real chemical shit--after all, UK and their valiant "intel" are still looking for those who killed Skripals' cat. I wouldn't put it pass the UK, they don't care how many civilians are killed--it is their MO for centuries now. 

In related UK news, mighty Britain seems to have found a solution to energy crisis which only begins to unfold in UK:

Octopus Energy is handing out heated blankets to help customers keep warm while costs are high. Bills have rocketed due to high wholesale gas prices, with the energy price cap jumping £693 to £1,971 last week. Millions of households on standard variable tariffs have been affected by the hike. Campaigners have warned it - and other rising costs such as food and tax - will push millions into poverty.

The wholesale poverty is unfolding in Europe and we can only pray that it will not be a hunger which comes next, but it very well may be the case. But as I said, I empathize with average Europeans, but they made their choice and there is already hell to pay for it, it will get worse, much much worse than that. 

You get what you voted for. So, here is the primer for Tuesday.

Better To See Once...

.... than hear and read about it. Zvezda  elaborated on Russian-Chinese naval exercise taking place now in the Sea of Japan and yes--this is not your regular exercise, which, indeed, attracted USS Chafee. In Russian, starting from 5:30 through 9:00. 

Nope, these are not your traditional "international naval exercise" with maneuvering and saving distressed people in the water. The scope of tasks Russian and Chinese fleets fulfill: 

1. Formation of the joint Ships Search-Strike Group (KPUG);

2. Joint ASW activity including KPUG's search and destroy of "enemy" submarine;

3. Setting up and engaging joint Air-Defense of the group, including target and targeting data distribution within group (Netcentricity, hello!);

4. Joint launching (electronic) of anti-shipping missiles by the group;

5. Other combat tasks such as counter-mine and gunnery.

This is how military ALLIES train. This is how they integrate their forces and, boy, we can only speculate now at what stage of integration those forces are. I am sure it is in advanced stage. 

In related news, Russians, with sarcastic laughter, noticed (in Russian) that Hadley Gamble didn't listen to many Putin's answers during recent moderating of Russia's Energy Week and was merely trying to look good while asking questions. No shit! The whole core idea of US media and politicos is how to turn anything being about precious me, me, me. It is narcissism taken to eleven. LOL. Apart from the obvious fact that many of them are simply dumb and badly educated to grasp even simplest of the responses.  Can you imagine trying to explain how Operational Sweep in Northern Atlantic against heterogeneous forces of Russian Navy has a direct influence on geopolitics to Hadley Gamble or... ahem, David Axe. Good luck with that.  Same wish of good luck goes to Turkey (another LOL) who tries now to return her $1.4 billion of down-payment for F-35s, while Washington offers Erdogan (his words)...F-16. You literally cannot make this shit up. 

"There is the payment of $1.4 billion we have made for the F-35s and the US had such a proposal in return for these payments," Erdogan said. "We have said we'll take whatever step is needed to meet our country's defense needs," the Turkish leader added.  The Turkish government's purchase of S-400 defense systems from Russia caused diplomatic tensions between the US and Turkey, who are both members of the trans-Atlantic NATO alliance. The US has sanctioned employees of Turkey's Defense Industry Directorate and warned Ankara against purchasing further equipment from Russia. Erdogan said last month Turkey is planning to purchase more S-400 systems from Moscow. "In the future, nobody will be able to interfere in terms of what defense systems we acquire, from which country at what level," Erdogan told US media outlet CBS News. 

Good luck, Turkey, getting your money back. Turkey may expect down the road offers to buy M-4 Sherman tanks and P-51 Mustangs, and why not? F-16 is an excellent combat plane for... the war against countries with no viable air forces in 1990s. It is 2021 today. But even more stunning was this, three days ago--I posted it on the discussion but give it a minute to take in what is being said: 

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Under Secretary for Economic Affairs Jose Fernandez met today with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksey Overchuk to reinforce the United States’ commitment to a stable and predictable bilateral relationship.  Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John F. Kerry separately met with Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk today and repeated his call for Russia to take more robust action on climate. Deputy Secretary Sherman called on Russia to do more to ensure European energy security while also echoing Secretary Kerry’s call for it to submit a strengthened nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement by the time COP 26 meets on October 31.  Deputy Secretary Sherman and Under Secretary Fernandez urged Russia to ensure fair treatment for U.S. companies in its marketplace and to resolve U.S. concerns about Russia’s trade and investment climate.  Deputy Secretary Sherman also underscored continued U.S. commitment to freedom of expression online.

Just think about it. This is not some BS think-tank in D.C. These are people with actual power and policy-setting positions. Polish press went apoplectic on this:

Cynizm czy odrealnienie? Podsekretarz stanu USA poprosiła Rosję o... zapewnienie Europie bezpieczeństwa energetycznego

Translation:  Cynicism or unreality? The US Undersecretary of State asked Russia to ... ensure energy security for Europe. 

I have news for Polish politicos and media personalities. Read my lips--second or third tier powers, such as Poland (for all my love for Polish culture), trying to interject themselves into the big guys game always ends up bad for such powers as Poland. Recall 1939? It is a cold hard fact of life. The US needed Poland as a front window for Western "capitalism" in the wake of the Soviet collapse and then as a pro-American spoiler in messy European affairs, including as a saboteur for Russia's energy projects, to be thrown out as used condom later. Now, this time has come for a simple reason, the United States tries to coral all her, by far not infinite, in fact very limited, resources to meet Chinese and Russian "challenges" and Poland, despite her active and fairly influential US diaspora, is not that important in the larger scheme of things. 

The times when Poland had a respectable industry from extraction to massive shipbuilding and even consumer electronics capacity are long gone, and Poland today is primarily a FIRE economy--EU made sure that Poland will be primarily a consumer, not a supplier. So did the US. After all, Germany and France (or Netherlands)--they have their own working class to feed and to do so they have to have high value added physical economy staying home. So, there you are. The United States is too busy making a killing at the hotter than hot Asian energy market and Polish LNG facilities can wait. Come on, guys, nothing personal, just business and the business is good for the United States in Asia.  And that is just one factor, there are many more. Big powers always think about themselves first--it is an axiom. It is about time Polish political class recognized it. Words are worthless, especially when they involve such terms as "common values", "democracy", "human rights", "freedom of speech" etc.  Russians, meanwhile, are still trying to figure out who among US elites (groups, clans, mafias etc.) has at least some capability to govern and with whom one can have a meaningful dialogue. This is a tall order. 

Will China Learn?

Vladimir Putin was explicit a couple of days ago, couldn't get more straight that this, I'll remind you, him verbatim:

 I repeat: the rise in gas prices in Europe was the result of a shortage of electricity, and not vice versa. And there is no need, as they say, to shift from a sore head to a healthy one, as we say, as some of our partners try to do. Sometimes you listen to what is being said about this, and you are surprised, it’s just amazing, as if they don’t see the numbers - I’ll say more about this - they don’t see the reality, they just cover up their own mistakes. Over the past decade, step by step, systemic flaws have been laid in European energy. It was they who led to a large-scale market crisis in Europe. Let me remind you that as long as the leading positions were atomic and gas generation, there were no such crises, there was nowhere for them to come from. I will add that today, thank God, such problems in Russia are unimaginable. A long-term approach to the development of the fuel and energy complex allows us to provide electricity prices for the population and enterprises at the lowest level in Europe. For comparison: the average price of electricity in Russia in terms of euros is about 20 euros per megawatt-hour, in Lithuania - 256, in Germany and France - 300, in the UK - 320.

Yet, as Reuters reports two days ago: 

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's energy crisis deepened on Friday as cold weather swept into much of the country and power plants scrambled to stock up on coal, sending prices of the fuel to record highs. Electricity demand to heat homes and offices is expected to soar this week as strong cold winds move down from northern China. Forecasters predict average temperatures in some central and eastern regions could fall by as much as 16 degrees Celsius in the next 2-3 days. Shortages of coal, high fuel prices and booming post-pandemic industrial demand have sparked widespread power shortages in the world's second-largest economy. Rationing has already been in place in at least 17 of mainland China's more than 30 regions since September, forcing some factories to suspend production and disrupting supply chains.

Obviously, the author of the piece, granted her Indian origin (Shivani Singh) and, evidently, experience in reporting on Hollywood, still cannot reconcile herself to the fact that China's economy dwarfs US economy, not to speak of others, and is the largest economy in the world by far. But we will forgive her ignorance and concentrate on the essence and here is where China's economic disproportions begin to manifest themselves. Yes, China's economy is monstrous but that where the problem is--it grew too fast too much dragging with itself all ills of an explosive development including inability to resolve her energy needs in a proper way. Here is Reutres'  map of severe power outages in China for the end of this September. 

If that wasn't bad enough, Chinese made this statement:

China will strive to achieve carbon peaks by 2030, Vice Premier Han Zheng said in a video message at the Russian Energy Week International Forum, according to state-run news agency Xinhua late on Thursday. He also said that China and Russia are important forces leading the energy transition and they should cooperate and ensure smooth progress of major oil and gas pipeline and nuclear power projects.

Well, there is certainly transition by Russia which develops nuclear technologies and power as if there is no tomorrow, same goes with Russia developing her already immense natural gas pumping and processing infrastructure, including really becoming a shipbuilding superpower. Not only Russia builds those massive LNG carriers, but have you seen what Russia builds in Arctic now? It is a monstrous shipyard in Belokamenka which will build concrete floating LNG and oil processing plants. World barely talks about it, but the scale of the thing is gigantic: 

A variety of buildings, facilities, and dock make up a new skyline like the Russian north has never seen before. Once a sleepy village, the Belokamenka (Russian for “the White stone”) is nowadays the busiest industrial construction site anywhere in the circumpolar north. Over 100 companies are involved in creating what will be the LNG  Construction Center, operated by Russian private natural gas producer Novatek. Few of the workers are from Murmansk. Some are from China, many are from Central Asian former Soviet republics, and some are from southern Russia. Although far from completed, work on fabricating the gravity-based structure for the liquefaction facility for Train 1 as part of Arctic LNG 2 project has already started in the main dock. The giant modular structures with the high-tech factories will, when ready, be towed from Belokamenka across the Barents- and Kara Seas to the coast of the Gydan Peninsula in Ob Bay in Siberia. Here, the production of liquified natural gas (LNG) will start in 2023. A year later, in 2024, Train 2 will start production, while the final Train 3 is set to start operation in 2026. Each of the three trains will have a production capacity of 6,6 million tons per year. The gas supply to the plants comes from Novatek’s Geofizicheskoye and Salmanovskoye fields.

You see? 

So, yes, Russia is preparing energy transition, alright, but not the one totalitarian "Green" cult has in mind. You know why? Here are Chinese coal futures: 

Oh baby, almost three-fold growth since February last year. I am sure "investors" are happy. I need a pop-corn at this stage. That is why I always talk with caveat about China's superpowerdom--it has to come with the balancing act between what is needed and what is possible. But then again, allow me to remind my other table I compiled recently. Remember?

Repeat after me: modern economy, which means productive industries, is energy, economy is energy... Solar and wind are good for wet dreams of EU and US politicos, real world which doesn't want to see its people going hungry, cold (or hot), without proper sanitation, without proper transportation, documentation, conflation, taxation, sedation, playstation, workstation, citation, representation... well, I got carried away here a bit, but you get my idea--all that requires an enormous amount of energy. Because Human Civilization and Energy are one and the same. Remember Kardashev and his famous scale? 

What's the deal with those Russians, they love their energy. But then again, who is Kardashev with his illustrious career in astrophysics and astronomy. What does he really know? Ask Greta Thunberg, she'll tell you, with the help of Al Gore, a political shyster with degree in... journalism. Even Wiki notes: 

Gore was an avid reader who fell in love with scientific and mathematical theories, but he did not do well in science classes and avoided taking math. During his first two years, his grades placed him in the lower one-fifth of his class. During his sophomore year, he reportedly spent much of his time watching television, shooting pool and occasionally smoking marijuana. In his junior and senior years, he became more involved with his studies, earning As and Bs. In his senior year, he took a class with oceanographer and global warming theorist Roger Revelle, who sparked Gore's interest in global warming and other environmental issues. Gore earned an A on his thesis, "The Impact of Television on the Conduct of the Presidency, 1947–1969", and graduated with an A.B. cum laude in June 1969.

A perfect, really match made in heaven, combination of "solid" (pseudo) science and publicity stunts. Evidently Chinese followed this primrose path. Boy, are they paying now and there is nothing funny about it. But that is one of the great exhibits of reasons for why the AUKUS was conceived and why the United States is so interested in interdicting China's Indian Ocean SLOCs which supply huge amounts of energy to China. Such an interdiction will assure a collapse of China's economy. Well, Russia, like a good neighbor is always there (sorry State Farm Insurance for using your slogan). It is a huge game, it is not just about managing Western World's departure and, hopefully, its soft landing. It is not even about multipolarity which is a fait accompli for years now. No, it is about the future of human civilization and a real transition towards more just, freer and promising world. We, as humanity, still have to expand into space on a permanent basis and start mining for its riches. Remember that other Russian who said this:

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but mankind cannot stay in the cradle forever.

But that is exactly what Western "elites" want us to do--arrest real development. But then again, intellectually they are pygmies (am I non-PC towards pygmies?), so they don't know any better.   

MOSCOW, May 22. /TASS/. The first mission of Russia’s nuclear-powered transport and energy module, Zeus, will last 50 months, Roscosmos Executive Director for Long-Term Programs and Science Alexander Bloshenko told reporters on Saturday. "The combined duration of the mission is 50 months," he said during the New Knowledge forum. He went on to say that the first flight has been scheduled for 2030. "Together with the Russian Academy of Sciences, were are now making calculations about this flight’s ballistics and payload," he said. According to Bloshenko, the space tug will first approach the Moon, where a spacecraft will separate from it. After that, it will head to Venus to perform a gravity assist maneuver and deliver another spacecraft. Then, it will depart towards Jupiter and one of its satellites.

I wonder if we can build wind generators at Venus--I heard it blows there big time. But I am sure Greta, Al Gore and New York Times will have objections to that, after all--those poor Venusians, wink, wink.

Will Russia Save Europe Again?

Yes. It is a goddamn civilizational burden Russians carry with them for centuries now. Of course, Russians will, in the end, as always be accused of being uncivilized brutes, perfidious scam and occupiers by "grateful" Europeans, but there are things one cannot avoid. Vladimir Putin is to speak at Energy meeting on the 13th (Peskov already announced that Putin will make an important announcement) and the announcement will be, most likely, about providing Europe with energy to survive the upcoming and severe winter. Human waste from western media, especially at the WSJ, are already hard at work trying to assess how much stronger Russia will become. 

Obviously, Russia is not interested in seeing Europe turning into a disaster, including dying of the whole sectors of industries which, otherwise, would have been customers for Russia's energy. But one cannot obfuscate the obvious humanitarian factor. As UK's Telegraph reports (here, in Russian, because all those shitty rags are behind the paywall) EU is considering centralized purchases of Russia's gas to assure better price.  Russian reaction to the German emercom video about how to heat oneself was both of "we told you so" and compassion. 

Analysts doubt it would make much of a difference right away, because at the moment Russia does not have a great deal to spare, but Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that even a small additional amount of exported gas could dampen what Moscow characterizes as a speculative frenzy in Europe.

And then there is China, who also goes through her motions with her amazing economic growth lacking proper planning and toying with suicidal "green" ideas. It is just that empirical proof of sheer idiocy, if not down right criminality, of those "green" ideas came that fast and early--maybe it is for the better. The United States is also on this path, and while not a massive energy supplier as Russia, the United States are bound under the present suicidal economic, cultural, educational and military polices to lose one of the last vestiges of a real income, which is allocating a moderate surplus in LNG for sale globally. 

I say, Russia has to go through motions to ease Europe's crisis but NO charity, period. There is a market price for gas, let EU pay for it after bargaining, of course. EU did it to itself, granted with the "help" of the US Fed "printing" loads of cash which now push already severe inflation into the hyperinflation territory which the US will not be able to control and the signs are all around us. Energy crisis is just one such sign. In related news, as always, American "economists" received the most useless, together with Literature and Peace, Nobel Prize in "economics"--a pseudo science in the United States.  But all this is just some partial manifestation of what I write about non-stop for years--a systemic crisis of the present economic and political system of the West which completely lost the touch with the reality and any ability to govern and is now facing the consequences.  This is just a warm-up. Things will get much more interesting in coming months.

It Was So Difficult To Predict, Not.

Obviously, the issue of causality is not well-known to EU leaders, because in their make-believe world you just wish things and they magically appear out of a thin air. The fact that actions have consequences is too difficult for them to grasp. 

Power and gas prices are hitting fresh records almost daily, and some energy-intensive companies have temporarily shut operations because they’re becoming too expensive to run. As winter approaches and Europeans start to turn on their heaters, the squeeze will intensify, pushing more executives into tough decisions about keeping plants open. Ammonia producer SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz GmbH is among those that’s been forced into drastic steps. The German company, which burns through 640 gigawatt hours of natural gas each year, equivalent to about 50,000 households, said Tuesday it will cut production by 20% to offset rising gas prices. “It doesn’t make sense to make ammonia at these price levels,” said Chief Executive Officer Petr Cingr. “A complete production stop looms if the government doesn’t act.” On Wednesday, the European Union issued a fresh warning and said it will outline measures including tax cuts and state aid that governments can use to help. “This price shock cannot be underestimated,” EU energy chief Kadri Simson said. “If left unchecked, it risks compromising Europe’s recovery.”

At this stage it doesn't matter how one tries to rationalize this clusterfuck but you can bet your ass on Russia, in the end, being blamed for all of it, including bad education of European "elites" who have no grasp of the modern world and how it operates. I say, go even greener, that will show them all how to run any country...into the ground. Yet, morons remain (and will remain) morons. 

Already hurt by coronavirus lockdowns, many of Germany’s smaller firms decided against securing long-term energy supplies earlier this year and can’t afford to catch up now as gas prices are so high, according to Andreas Loeschel, professor of resource economics at Ruhr-University Bochum. “So much depends on the the demand side of the equation,” he said, referring to the potential for a colder-than-expected winter. “A number of unlikely events are building up to cause a situation we’ve never seen before.”

No shit! I have a question to this "professor"--has it occurred to him that there are such things in the world as "contingency planning", "good engineering", "sound energy policies" and other things of this nature which are called in the world of normal people "preparedness". No? Never heard of it? Obviously not, because in the world of European in general, and German in particular, totalitarian politics loyalty to ideological radical orthodoxy of "Green Energy", LGBTQIRS madness which fill in the voids left by serious professionals and scientists who do not want to fight (I don't blame them) human insanity, is more important than seeking the truth. 

One would expect this in a third world but when one of the top 10 German universities produces such "specialists" in, and you may have guessed it already, "economics", what do you expect?

An der Universität Duisburg-Essen sollen gute Prüfungsnoten gegen Bargeld verkauft worden sein. Die Staatsanwalt Essen ermittele "im Bereich der Korruptionsdelikte", sagte ein Sprecher der Behörde. Aus ermittlungstaktischen Gründen wollte die Staatsanwaltschaft "zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt" keine weiteren Details nennen. Die Universität habe selbst Strafanzeige erstattet. Mit rund 40.000 Studierenden ist die Universität Duisburg-Essen eine der zehn größten deutschen Unis. Nach Informationen der "Westdeutschen Allgemeinen Zeitung" geht es um Prüfungen der Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften. Ermittelt werde gegen eine Verwaltungsmitarbeiterin der auf dem Essener Campus angesiedelten Fakultät sowie gegen rund 50 Studierende. Diese sollen der Sachbearbeiterin jeweils 800 Euro in bar überreicht haben, damit sie im Computersystem der Uni aus einer nicht bestandenen Prüfung (Note 5) eine bestandene machte (Note 4). Ausgelöst worden seien die Ermittlungen durch einen anonymen Hinweis

Translation:  Good exam grades are said to have been sold for cash at the University of Duisburg-Essen. The public prosecutor of Essen is investigating "into the area of ​​corruption offenses," said a spokesman for the authority. For tactical reasons, the public prosecutor did not want to give any further details "at this point in time". The university itself filed a criminal complaint. With around 40,000 students, the University of Duisburg-Essen is one of the ten largest German universities. According to information from the "Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung", it is about exams for the Faculty of Economics. The investigation will be carried out against an administrative employee of the faculty located on the Essen campus and against around 50 students. These are said to have given the clerk 800 euros each in cash so that she can turn a failed exam (grade 5) into a passed exam (grade 4) in the university's computer system. The investigation was triggered by an anonymous tip.

I think those 50 students are the perfect candidates for the top political positions in Germany (and EU) and I am sure with such excellent backgrounds they will contribute immensely to furthering insane suicidal economic, foreign policy and cultural agendas born primarily in the deep recesses of the European (and American) radical left because of a difficulty of serious STEM education and a relative ease of a "humanities" one. Education in design and engineering of nuclear power station is much more difficult (orders of magnitude) than forays into the pseudo-scientific demagoguery of Derrida or the study of monetarism. Hence, more free time is allocated to radicalization and developing a desire to destroy anything good, productive or beautiful. It is especially easy to do when it takes only 800 Euros to get a passing grade in the subject which is not even real economics as Michael Hudson (correctly) describes.  

My point was that the way the economy is described in the press and in University courses has very little to do with how the economy really works. The press and journalistic reports use a terminology made of well crafted euphemisms to confuse understanding of how the economy works.

Yes, and that is why Europe is going down, while China will pay ANY price for the resources which she desperately needs. In this, EU loses, China wins. Recall my table, China has a severe deficit of energy. Europe doesn't want Russia and Russia doesn't want Europe anymore, certainly not EU. Even Merkel concedes today:

(Bloomberg) -- Outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel dismissed charges that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is partly to blame for the record spikes in European gas prices.  “To my knowledge, there are no orders where Russia has said we won’t deliver it to you, especially not with regard to the pipeline in Ukraine,” Merkel told reporters Wednesday. “Russia can only deliver gas on the basis of contractual obligations, and not just only like that.”  

Europe did it to herself,  she made her bed, now she must sleep in it. Russia is orienting her energy towards China and Asia in general. Russia will work with European nations on a bi-lateral bases, such as recent contract with Hungary, and considering what modern European elites are, there are virtually no chances of normal relations between Europe and Russia, only minimal needed and Russia will hold her nose. In related news--nothing new:

Officials from NATO have reportedly decided to slash the size of the permanent Russian delegation working to build ties with the US-led military bloc at its headquarters in Brussels, revoking the credentials of eight envoys. 

Same as this: 

The Russian authorities have hit back at suggestions by four US senators that American President Joe Biden should expel 300 diplomats, and warned that Moscow would close all of Washington’s missions on Russian soil in retaliation.“There aren’t even that many Russian diplomats in Washington,” the Foreign Ministry stated. “Those who propose such steps are apparently pushing for the closure of American offices in Russia. They should understand that the responsibility for this will be theirs.”On Tuesday, Senators Bob Menendez, Marco Rubio, Mark Warner and Jim Risch wrote a letter to Biden, urging him to take “immediate action to increase staffing at the US embassy in Moscow.” The American mission has been faced with a personnel shortage since the US was listed on Moscow’s official list of ‘unfriendly countries,’ meaning that it is banned from employing locals.

You cannot talk to these people. You cannot reason with them because they do not live in the real world and are people utterly unqualified for any serious activity in foreign affairs because they do not understand the outside world. They can't, they lack basic mechanisms of developing the awareness--a defining feature of America's political class. But then again, in the United States there is no way you can buy your passing grade in the university, like never. Right, right?

Now With Comments.

Tyler Durden of ZeroHedge posted today a piece by Bill Blain about the energy crisis. Blain opens with a broadside:

For many months myself and many of the investors I work with have become increasingly concerned at the growing instability and insecurity of energy markets. The 4 times spike in Gas prices this year has been a shocking wake-up call, highlighting energy insecurity in Europe and particularly the UK. Gas prices will remain elevated for months to come. The consequences are going to be brutal – and fatal for some. Energy – whether derived from fossil fuels, nuclear or renewables – is a commodity and the critical thing about commodities is: “You can’t print commodities like you can print money. The rules are not the same,” says my good friend and head of commodities at Shard, Ashley Boolell.

It is obvious--commodities ARE the foundation of physical economy which is THE economy, the rest, including finances, is merely a derivative, an avatar for exchange. But that is not main focus here. Blain writes about Russia, of course. 

The likely source of Gas will be Russia. And Vladimir Putin can’t wait.

The coming Energy Crisis will be his grand opportunity. Remember the famous photo of him with Angela Merkel and his dog prowling in front of her? Putin knew she has a terror of dogs so he deliberately intimidated her. He won’t deal with Europe. He will invite each European leader to plead their case individually, menacingly asking each leader why he should open the Gas Taps to their nation specifically. Covid 19 was the first big test for Europe. Its’ vaccine programme failures could have been disastrously fractious for the EU. When faced with a European Energy Crisis and Russia holding the cards, what’s to stop countries doing deals? Who will crack first? Poland? Germany? And what will Putin expect in return? Legitimacy?  A free-hand to deal with domestic dissent? Sanction ending? A free hand in Ukraine or even the Baltics? It rather depends on what price he thinks he can force Europe to pay. And what will Putin ask of Boris? That London reopens its door and markets to the kleptocracy he leads? Or something more…?  Make no mistake, this winter is going to be shocking. Be aware.

Blain, obviously, is fully ignorant on Russia because he doesn't understand the weight difference between UK and her rather dubiously qualified PM BoJo and Russia and Putin. The difference is not just in the weight category, and UK and any separate EU country is orders of magnitude less important geopolitically than Russia. The difference in is in power. Blain, being "investor" doesn't operate with such categories because they are beyond the grasp of the run-of-the-mill British "financial strategist"  and a product of Western "school of economics". That is why Western "strategists" cannot find their own ass with their own two hands in brightly lit room, since none of them understands real economy, real power, including military one and, being a product of Western non-STEM education, they do not have a grasp of physical economy in terms of advanced manufacturing. But that is not the main issue. The main issue is what highlighted in yellow. 

Talk about being ignorant and suffering from the acute case of folie de grandeur while being British. Putin is not going to "ask anything" from BoJo and UK. Least of all legitimacy? LOL. Blain should stick to what he knows best, which is a financial voodoo which turned UK into a pipsqueak of a country and continues to run the US into the ground with acceleration. Russia doesn't need any favors from UK nor any permissions on dealing with anything domestically, let alone about Ukraine and here is the point: what is the definition of "free hand" in Ukraine.  Can Blain give a definition of what this "free hand" in Ukraine means? He can't for a simple reason, as I already pointed out above--he will deflate within first minute when trying to talk about real geopolitics and real economy because he has zero background in those matters and does not operate with conceptual apparatus and epistemology of modern geopolitics because it is very difficult and requires serious STEM and natural science background. Should he have one, he would have known that the only concern for Russia in 404 is for it turning, an ongoing and accelerating process, into a complete shithole which in desperation may indeed commit suicide (including on the advice of Blain's homeland) and unleash the war against Russia which it will lose very fast and severely but will accomplish only one thing, which Russia was avoiding for the last 7 years--taking this freak of a nation with its third world problems and hostile population on Russia's balance. 

But Blain is not aware of this and his thinking that "London reopening  its door and market" for Russia is desirable is ludicrous. Same goes with lifting sanctions. Netherlands and Belarus are above the UK as Russia's trading partners and UK "market" is not that important for Russia as are Chinese or German markets, with the latter also declining in importnace. But the trend with EU (and UK as a former part of it) in general as I already stated not for once is on reorienting Russia toward East where her real economic and geostrategic interests are and in those plans both the US, and UK as the US chihuahua, are viewed as enemies with suicidal tendencies. So, for Blain it is time to wake up and smell the reality of UK being a secondary power at best (in reality--tertiary), and the fact that a lot of banking is done in London City doesn't make it a center of the world. The last remaining jewels of British engineering ingenuity and economic ability, such as Rolls-Royce, among very few others, should not give Blain a strange idea that he understands modern world, especially Russia, and how it operates. He doesn't, most "investors" and "strategists" don't, otherwise the collapsing Western World wouldn't have found itself in the place it is today. As they say in Anglo-world, the proof is in the pudding. I hope Blain at least heard this one. But generally, one has to ask why such illiterate trash as Blain wrote even has to be taken seriously. But I feel his pain. 

P.S. Has this "strategist" dabbled into the military analysis to compare armed forces of UK and Russia? Just wondering.