Friday, February 18, 2022

Before Making Conclusions...

While LDNR evacuate civilians because of the only thing the regime in Kiev can do--that is shelling civilians and civilian infrastructure--my advice here is simple--don't rush to the conclusions. I would also advise not to read Western MSM because those are active participants in war crimes and many of those people who run them are directly responsible for many atrocities around the world and a good number of CNN, MSNBC, NYT and WaPo presstitudes should be persecuted for war crimes. There is a chance some of them will be, but about this--later. 

Now, I don't know in detail the disposition and correlation of VSU and LDNR forces along the contact line, but based on General Colonel Kartapolov's highly professional assessment of VSU capabilities--they are not what many Western and some Russia's pseudo-"experts" try to portray. VSU forces are large but also doubtfully cohesive due to being marinated by the trench warfare for a long time and are not capable to mount effective breakthrough (naturally at the border between Lugansk and Donetsk regions) against LDNR forces. Any arguments that some super-pooper CIA or US-UK "adviser" plans their "offensive" is risible--the United States doesn't have experience of fighting real serious combined arms campaign against competent peer, peer being in this case LDNR relative to VSU. The main task for the US is simple--to throw Ukrainian cannon fodder against LDNR and Russia, supporting them, and wait hoping that Russia appears there in a form of her armed forces. If VSU is annihilated, even better for the US.

So, this round of conflagration could be the last desperate attempt by the US to get some military response from Russia. At this stage of primarily artillery assault on LDNR and attempts to blow things here and there in breakaway republics by VSU (and whatever Anglo-American "advisers") the real offensive is doubtful. But we also have to remember that VSU is not really controlled by Mr. Ze. Ukrainian side immediately declared that there is no plan to attack and that they have no relation to terrorist acts on chemical plants in LDNR (in Russian). They may be not entirely untruthful--404 is a country controlled from Washington D.C. and considering the number of psychopaths and incompetent hacks infesting D.C. corridors of power we may yet see some bizarre developments. 

Now, you may be interested in what Russia's response will be. Simple: if Russia will be forced to react, it will be, most likely across much of a spectrum of the US-Russia stand off and some NATO assets may feel the heat. People should not lose the sight of the main conflict in which LDNR-404 is but one of many others. But at this stage even if Russia gets involved directly in LDNR the outcome for the US and combined West is already predetermined--it is not good. The logical response, however, will be, if shit hits the fan in industrial quantities, just change regime in Kiev (Kiev is preparing for evacuation) and allow LDNR to become a center of reconstituted rump of 404. As I said, while economically Europe is important, Russia can take and survive the breakup, Europe can not. But for now Russia is "not in", because LDNR forces can handle this.

No comments:

Post a Comment