with George F. Kennan.
The US diplomat George Kennan, an astute observer of Soviet Russia under Stalin, offered his observations later in life on the question of NATO expansion. The tragedy of our times is that those views are being ignored. Winston Churchill once famously quipped that the “Americans will always do the right thing, but only after all other possibilities are exhausted.” That bit of dry British humor cuts to the heart of the current crisis in Ukraine, which is loaded with enough geopolitical dynamite to bring down a sizable chunk of the neighborhood. Yet, had the West taken the advice of one of its leading statesmen with regards to reckless military expansion toward Russia, the world would be a more peaceful and predictable place today.
Well, many don't even know Kennan's clarification of his policy of "containment". He stressed that he meant an ideological containment, the US wanted a military one. In the end, Kennan and his experience were totally ignored and the new crop of the American "diplomats"--badly educated, ignorant but high on the American exceptionalism and influence of ethno-religious lobbies in D.C., decided that they knew better. They didn't. The results of this ignorant arrogance we all observe today. Nor should we forget that Kennan was not always that benign either, but at least he knew about Russia way more than modern Department of State whose situational awareness in this regard is nearly non-existent. Ideology rules.
Well, first "results" of Russia sanctions are becoming already known:
Neither Qatar nor any other country has the ability to replace Russian gas supplies to Europe with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the event of interruptions due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said on Tuesday, Reuters reported.
The oil market will find it impossible to replace Russia’s oil, which accounts for 10 percent of global supply, Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director for natural resources and commodities at Fitch, told Russian media on Tuesday. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis could send oil prices to above $100 per barrel, according to Fitch’s expert. Early on Tuesday, oil prices surged close to $100 a barrel, with Brent Crude hitting a new seven-year high of $99 before easing to $97 per barrel after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized late on Monday two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and deployed troops there in the most serious escalation of the crisis yet.
You see? That explains why Russia not only anticipated but effectively sacrificed Nord Stream 2. In fact, Russia's reaction of disgust to Herr Scholz' attitudes towards war crimes committed by 404 in LDNR could have been this proverbial straw that broke camel's back. You cannot deal with these people, they have no consciousness and morals and Russians are pretty good at understanding when any activity becomes the exercise in futility.
In seemingly unrelated news, Russia and Azerbaijan reached a landmark agreement today (in Russian) and signed joint declaration on Allied Relations. This event is much bigger than one may expect and is indicative of a process of consolidation of Russia's near abroad not only as markets but safe economic and political environment. In related news, Russia is removing her diplomats from Kiev, rightly so--shit is about to hit the fan in Ukraine in industrial quantities. For people to understand what modern Ukraine is, the analogy to Gulyaipole may help with understanding when viewed as a center of Mahno movement. Mahno being a euphemism for anarchy, fluid loyalties and robbery. You know, like modern day Ukraine.