No Shit, Pardon My French.

If this psycho acknowledges it, then something is afoot:

US lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are having second thoughts about providing Ukraine with various types of aid amid its conflict with Russia, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland acknowledged on Monday. Speaking during a panel discussion hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce, Nuland was asked to comment on the political split in Washington regarding support for Kiev. The State Department official attempted to downplay friction on the matter, noting that the US “has contributed more than $30 billion to the security, economic prosperity, and humanitarian situation in Ukraine.” “You can’t do that without overwhelming support of both parties in the Congress,” she added.

You have to almost pity them--meaning neocons--right now. Can you imagine their feelings right now? They had a perfect "plan", just plan, no A,B,C..., and then, from the git go this plan started to go haywire the minute they started implementing it. It went wrong immediately. Recall immortal Russian classic:

It was not Napoleon alone who had experienced that nightmare feeling of the mighty arm being stricken powerless, but all the generals and soldiers of his army whether they had taken part in the battle or not, after all their experience of previous battles—when after one tenth of such efforts the enemy had fled—experienced a similar feeling of terror before an enemy who, after losing HALF his men, stood as threateningly at the end as at the beginning of the battle. The moral force of the attacking French army was exhausted. Not that sort of victory which is defined by the capture of pieces of material fastened to sticks, called standards, and of the ground on which the troops had stood and were standing, but a moral victory that convinces the enemy of the moral superiority of his opponent and of his own impotence was gained by the Russians at Borodinó. The French invaders, like an infuriated animal that has in its onslaught received a mortal wound, felt that they were perishing, but could not stop, any more than the Russian army, weaker by one half, could help swerving. By impetus gained, the French army was still able to roll forward to Moscow, but there, without further effort on the part of the Russians, it had to perish, bleeding from the mortal wound it had received at Borodinó. The direct consequence of the battle of Borodinó was Napoleon’s senseless flight from Moscow, his retreat along the old Smolénsk road, the destruction of the invading army of five hundred thousand men, and the downfall of Napoleonic France, on which at Borodinó for the first time the hand of an opponent of stronger spirit had been laid.

You think those who concocted this "plan" in the US read this? No, for any crook from within the Beltway it is an excruciating torture to study real history of Russia, because the very existence of Russian people and their country, which, time after time, destroyed enemies much more powerful and skilled than pathetic excuse for "strategists" in Washington, contradicts every single belief those war criminals and white board amateurs profess. We all live today through classic Russian grand battle, be that Borodino, Stalingrad, Kursk or Berlin--it is about annihilation. Tolstoy again:

And it is well for a people who do not—as the French did in 1813—salute according to all the rules of art, and, presenting the hilt of their rapier gracefully and politely, hand it to their magnanimous conqueror, but at the moment of trial, without asking what rules others have adopted in similar cases, simply and easily pick up the first cudgel that comes to hand and strike with it till the feeling of resentment and revenge in their soul yields to a feeling of contempt and compassion.   

They only now begin to suspect that they are being looked at with contempt. As a result, today Vladimir Putin signed the law on suspension of the START from 2010. 

With it, the US loses any kind of access to Russia's nuclear weapons facilities, where weapon systems are created which are generations ahead of what is being planned and developed in the US. I am on record: the US lost the arms race and the scale--most likely mind-boggling--of this loss is yet to be fully revealed. In related news, Richard Haas who passes in the US for a thinker, continues to live in alternative reality:

Putin now finds himself playing for time. Unable to defeat Ukraine’s military, he is attacking economic and civilian targets, hoping to break the will of Ukrainians. He may also believe that, despite what Western leaders say, it is only a matter of time before European governments, along with the US, rethink the costs of supporting Ukraine. 

I am on record--you cannot educate US "diplomat" and "strategist" in anything, they do not receive proper education in the colleges. By education I mean not degrees but actual knowledge, ability to learn and knowing own limitations. But even this pseudo-intellectual (primarily through incompetent use of big words: strategy, costs, national interests et al), after fluffy operational-strategic BS, admits that there are doubts. Sure. Let them doubt--an entirely new feeling for arrogant, uncultured and ignorant pseudo-professionals within US "academe" and "elites".

Nice Try, Plus Larry On China And Russia.

It is turning into a complete circus:

President Joe Biden told ABC News anchor David Muir in a new interview that it was a "big mistake" for Russian President Vladimir Putin to temporarily suspend Russia's participation in the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the two countries. "It's a big mistake to do that. Not very responsible. But I don't read into that that he's thinking of using nuclear weapons or anything like that," Biden told Muir in Poland on Wednesday, before the president flew back to Washington. Biden said he was "not sure what else he [Putin] was able to say in his speech at the moment, but I think it's a mistake and I'm confident we'll be able to work it out."

Hey, somebody voted for this guy. I, sure as hell, didn't. Good luck with "working this out", I am sure they will come up with a new definition of nuclear weapons, and of "working out" for a good measure, same way as they redefined recession. 

In related news, Larry penned an excellent piece on why Comrade Xi is going to Moscow. 

The visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Moscow this week was not a coincidence. It had at least three goals — to demonstrate China’s support for Russia on the anniversary of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, to further progress on the creation of an alternative international financial system not beholden to Washington and, I believe, to kick off the negotiations for a mutual defense pact. In addition to meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, Wang Yi met with Patrushev, the head of Russia’s Security Council. In the world of international diplomacy, the Foreign Minister has the task of working out details and producing the documents that would codify a defense relationship. It also is not a coincidence that Putin announced at the end of the “productive” meeting with Wan Yi that Xi Jinping, the President of the People’s Republic of China, would visit Russia in the near future, possibly in March. Xi Jinping is not going to Russia to sight see or swig vodka.

Is the announcement of the Russian-Chinese pact possible when Xi arrives to Moscow? Absolutely, I agree with Larry here fully. Will it happen? We'll see. Plus, Mr. Ryabkov flatly denied a BS from Sabrina Singh about "failed test" of Sarmat (in Russian). This is how desperate they are, they lie non-stop. 

Do Not Miss This...

While the whole (Western) world discusses "dying" and "stricken by cancer" and "dementia" Putin who looks mighty healthy and as sharp as ever, some very important messages shouldn't be missed. Of course, Russia suspending her START participation and getting ready for physical testing of nukes, once the US, inevitably, will also abrogate the ban on tests of nuclear weapons, are of immense import. This rings especially true in a view of the United States de facto losing strategic arms race to Russia. It is all very important, of course. But the same as was the case with Admiral Rickover who warned that Soviet Union's main weapon was system of public education, which already in the late 1950s made US education public school system look like a backwater, Putin's words yesterday in his Address to Federal Assembly have been finally spoken!

Первое – вернуться к традиционной для нашей страны базовойподготовке специалистов с высшим образованием.Срок обучения может составить от четырёх до шести лет. При этом даже в рамках одной специальности и одного вуза могут бытьпредложены программы, разные по срокуподготовки, в зависимости от конкретной профессии, отрасли и запроса рынка труда. Второе – если профессия требует дополнительной подготовки, узкой специализации, то в этом случае молодой человек сможет продолжить образование в магистратуре или ординатуре. Третье – в отдельный уровень профессиональногообразования будет выделена аспирантура, задача которой – готовить кадры для научной и преподавательской деятельности. 

Translation: The first is to return to the traditional for our country basic training of specialists with higher education. The term of study can be from four to six years. At the same time, even within the same specialty and one university, programs can be offered that differ in terms of training, depending on the specific profession, industry and labor market demand. Secondly, if the profession requires additional training, narrow specialization, then in this case the young person will be able to continue his education in a magistracy or residency. Thirdly, postgraduate studies will be allocated as a separate level of professional education, the task of which is to train personnel for scientific and teaching activities.

Finally! I am on record for many years--the Bologna Process, all those undergraduate and graduate "degrees" are crap, and often do not provide necessary professional competencies for a whole range of serious industrial and hi-tech professions. The title of specialist is a key in this classic Soviet education which finally returns. There is a reason Russia's military higher education largely retained old academic criteria by preparing SPECIALISTS, not some "graduates" with "majoring" in something. As an example, after full 5 calendar, 6 academic years we all graduated from naval academy with the title of Specialists. Nobody is interested in a Bachelor of Arts in... communications, as an example, on the position of a modern motor rifle platoon commander, CO of Combat Department on the ship or submarine, because modern military, modern industry, modern economy requires an extremely focused professional preparation in higher education, instead of somebody who just has some kind of degree. 

This is a strategic decision and I applaud it. I knew it was coming, because Bologna System is largely a fraud and provides an extremely low level of education and professional development. It is time for it to be removed and this decision has been made for Russia. I will talk about the rest of the Address later. But this was a huge development in itself, not to mention a proper reorientation of humanities field in both lower and higher education to traditional values, true humanism and tradition. Returning to START, judging by the news of a large modernization on the Novaya Zemlya testing range which was in progress for the last couple years, it is clear that Moscow knew about US intentions to resume nuclear testing and simply is getting ready once the US detonates the physical nuke. 

And then, of course, is this. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Moscow for a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in the coming months, the Wall Street Journal claimed on Tuesday. Reports of the trip come as Beijing looks to take a leading role in resolving the conflict in Ukraine. The visit will take place sometime in April or early May, the American newspaper said, citing “people familiar with the plan.” The sources claimed that Xi will use the summit with Putin to push for multiparty peace talks aimed at ending the fighting in Ukraine. Successive rounds of peace talks failed last year, with Kiev abruptly withdrawing from negotiations in Istanbul in April. Russian officials and others elsewhere have claimed that Western powers pressured Ukraine into abandoning the talks, despite an agreement being close at hand.

For the imbeciles from WSJ I repeat, again, the simple fact--Beijing CAN NOT take any leading role in 404 for a simple reason of Beijing's long term security being ensured by Russia through the means of demilitarization of NATO and its big honcho--the US. Comrade Xi will be in Moscow not for promoting a "peace plan" or pushing anything. We are talking here about a completely different dynamics which is beyond the grasp of WSJ "sources" and analysts, who, as you may have guessed it, have been dumbed down through Bologna Process in the US Ivy League journo and communications departments. Ah, yes, in "the coming months" 404 will shrink even more. This is your primer on Putin's Address. 

P.S. The US now is "ready to talk" about START, that is what the representative of National Security Council told CNN. No shit, geniuses--back to school and learn real diplomacy, balance of power and warfare. Don't hold your breath though, they will fail, as usual.       

About Timing...

My timing. Just yesterday I spoke about the necessity to look at the things that really matter on the global stage and that REAL news was Russia's "abrupt" withdrawal from START consultations. I also stressed, that technically Russia doesn't need START mainly due to these two major reasons (there are some other less important reasons too):

1. Technologically in terms of strategic arms, or arms having a capacity to provide a strategic effect, while not being strategic in de jure sense, Russia is so ahead of the United States that...

2. The United States doesn't have both technological and, most importantly, industrial wherewithal to close the gap, which is widening and makes namely the United States a party in a position of needing this treaty desperately. 

Russia has all necessary data on the state of the US nuclear deterrent and its ABM, very grossly exaggerated, capability and knows that she loses nothing if START is stalled, for a while at least. In the end, the US is a non-agreement capable party and any treaty with the US is not worth the paper such a treaty is signed on. But...it takes two to tango. 

Russia sees no possibility of resuming talks with Washington on the cornerstone New START arms control treaty while the US continues to arm Ukraine, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Wednesday. Speaking in a live interview on radio Sputnik, Maria Zakharova said: “The US intends to supply even more weapons to the conflict region, in which the Russian Federation is directly involved. That is, they will supply all these weapons, they will encourage the Kiev regime to cause even more bloodshed, they will allocate money for extremist activities that are carried out under the auspices of these delusional people [in the Ukrainian presidency], and we will sit with them at the same table and discuss issues of mutual security with them, including those in their interest?" The spokeswoman stressed that Moscow values the New START agreement, as it serves the best interests of both Russia and the US, adding that the necessary conditions must be met before talks can be resumed.

State Department, evidently, never knew--not surprising--that others can play the game too, and it is going to hurt like hell. Recall, that many, yours truly included, pointed out to the fact that the MAD eventually will "dissipate" for a single reason that the US lag in anti-missile technology both qualitatively and quantitatively may, and most likely, will become so massive that the US deterrent my lose a lot of its credibility, which is the foundation of MAD. It was the US, not Russia, who abrogated ABM Treaty--after that the US discovered that it is nowhere near the ABM and anti-hypersonic capabilities of such systems as S-500 or A-235 Nudol, among other new physical principles weapons such as laser Peresvet and who knows what else. 

The death of INF Treaty saw the US discovering that its land-attack capability is nowhere near Russian one, especially in terms of ranges and velocities. 10,000 km range X-101s and 4,500 range 3M14M Kalibr are already here. And then, of course, there is this hypersonic arsenal. So, one can easily recognize the pattern of the US assuming wrongly and then finding itself in a strategic bind. I can only imagine how many in State Department and Pentagon salivate from any prospect of getting any close quarters intel on such things as RS-28 Sarmat or Poseidon. The only thing which can allow the US side to gain this legally is the regime of inspections for START. But here we are today--no inspections, only quid pro quo.  If not, then--too bad... for the US. Zakharova merely confirmed it today. Is there something like "S-700", of which late Zhirinovsky joked, in works in Russia? You can bet your ass on that.  

Never Lose The Sight.

The channels are open between the US and Russia and this is just a brief glimpse into what I believe is an active bargaining happening behind curtains. 

Russia and the US have managed to achieve “significant progress” in talks over resuming nuclear inspections within the New START treaty, Russian newspaper Izvestia reported on Thursday, citing the Foreign Ministry. The sides are also apparently mulling face-to-face negotiations to remedy remaining issues. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, as quoted by the outlet, Moscow and Washington are looking into reviving mutual inspection of nuclear arsenals. The ministry noted that the US and Russia are negotiating “over relevant channels” on how to return “to the full implementation of the treaty” in the element relating to verification mechanisms. It went on to say that the sides are holding virtual talks within the New START bilateral consultative panel. “At the moment, the possibilities for holding its next session in face-to-face format are being explored,” the ministry added. Russia and the US are also discussing “what organizational and technical problems need to be solved,” it told the outlet, adding that “significant progress” has been made to remedy a number of issues, but some “considerable difficulties remain.”

US interest is understandable--it is to somehow gain a glimpse into the new Russian technologies and START inspections are one of such channels. US is keenly interested in RS-28 Sarmat and, naturally, to get near Avangard. And this is just the part of it. As Larry correctly stated during our meeting at PolitWera a couple of weeks ago, the US increasingly finds itself trailing across the board in deterrent and, in a view of Russia deploying a new generation of fully strategic ABM capable systems such as S-500 and A-235, there is a chance, however remote now, that the lag will become so huge that the US deterrent will begin to lose its credibility, and the only option for the US will be a preemptive nuclear strike on Russia. It is not as fantastic as one may think and that is why such consultations are important. 

Meanwhile VSU wins the war so magnificently that its C'n'C decided that NATO must strike Russia with nuclear weapons. Moscow reacted immediately:

МОСКВА, 6 окт — РИА Новости. Заявление Владимира Зеленского о превентивном ударе по России по сути означает призыв к началу мировой войны, заявил пресс-секретарь президента Дмитрий Песков. По его словам, в случае конфликта последствия будут чудовищны и непредсказуемы. Пресс-секретарь президента отметил, что на высказывания президента Украины должны обратить внимание все страны, особенно США, Великобритания и члены Евросоюза. Он подчеркнул, что эти слова нельзя оставлять без реакции мирового сообщества. Кроме того, учитывая тот факт, что Вашингтон и Лондон фактически руководят деятельностью Киева, они несут ответственность за слова Зеленского, подчеркнул Песков.

 

Translation: MOSCOW, October 6 - RIA Novosti. Vladimir Zelensky's statement about a preemptive strike against Russia essentially means a call for the start of a world war, said presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov. According to him, in the event of a conflict, the consequences will be monstrous and unpredictable. The presidential press secretary noted that all countries, especially the United States, Great Britain and members of the European Union, should pay attention to the statements of the President of Ukraine. He stressed that these words should not be left without the reaction of the world community. In addition, given the fact that Washington and London actually direct the activities of Kyiv, they are responsible for the words of Zelensky, Peskov stressed.  

 

Zelensky proposed this strike while speaking to Australia's Lowy Institute and you can bet your ass on Western media trying to ignore this. In the same time--this is the level of Western academe and "research" which explains why combined West finds itself today where it is and why things are going increasingly bad. With "guests" like Kiev's clown and genocidal maniac I am sure they all get a clear picture of the events. Nah, I am screwing with you. But yes, Ukraine is about to defeat Russia and that is why they need a preemptive nuclear strike. It is a classic Sun Tzu stratagem: 

So, creatively applying this stratagem we may say that when you are about to defeat Russia and final victory is at hand (this is what Petraeus, Keane and other US generals say) preemptively strike this damn country with nuclear weapons ensuring that all life on Earth is destroyed. But, if you saw a typical VSU "offensive" yesterday (at Larry's blog) you may have already a basic understanding of what those "advances" are. Not to mention that yesterday all of them have been rolled back. But in the internet Ukraine celebrates non-stop victories. Dmitry Medvedev, however, summarized the economic war of Russia very succinctly: 

Однако к благоразумию наших врагов на Западе взывать бесполезно. И не нужно. Врагов надо заставить просить о пощаде в проигранном экономическом сражении. И завершать его их полной и безоговорочной капитуляцией.  

Translation: It is useless to appeal to the common sense of our enemies in the West. It is also not necessary. The enemies must be forced (by us) to beg for mercy in the lost economic battle. And we need to complete this battle with their full unconditional capitulation. 

 

This is exactly what is happening. Remember--political objectives of war? 

P.S. Will Russia give the US a way out? Not impossible, but for now--unlikely.

You Get Gorbachev Only Once a Century.

Or even millennium. Cowardly, very narrow-minded and hollow. He is, certainly, one of the most outstanding dumbfvcks in history who managed to destroy his country, granted it needed some changes, and who became an embodiment of human incompetence. Despite leading Soviet scientists and military people telling him that Strategic Defense Initiative (aka Star Wars) was mostly smoke and mirrors, Gorbachev and his cabal of "reformers" decided that they can use SDI as one of the excuses for entering negotiations with the United States on matters of Strategic Arms Limitations, Anti-Missile Defense and humiliating and grossly disadvantageous for USSR INF Treaty which was presented by Gorbachev as an "achievement", when in reality it was nothing more than surrendering already emerging decisive Soviet advantage across the whole spectrum of weapon systems. The problem, of course, was the fact that Gorbachev being a door mat for his late wife and being a stubborn village jackass, wouldn't know the difference between shit and shinola, nor could recognize, despite multiple warnings, that he was played as a preschooler by the West.  

Gorbachev was dealing with cartoons and a lot of speeches ABOUT SDI, while having under his command what already then was becoming not only the best Air Defense system in the world but some of the most advanced and breakthrough technologies in both weapon systems and their enablers. But the guy was a moron with agenda and he, probably, wasn't that disposed against being duped to start with. He had a "plan" and we all know how well it worked... for the West. But time never stands still and tables tend to be turned once in a while. Obviously SDI turned out to be nothing more than a PR trick and once the heritage of tractorist Gorbachev and alcoholic Yeltsin was dealt with, new strategic and technological reality begun to emerge, being the sum of all things described above and more, not least a complete loss by Russia and Russians of any trust to a combined West. All this resulted in Russia declaring a new era of warfare and of global balance of power shift on March 1, 2018.  I wasn't melodramatic or driven by pathos when wrote then:

I don't want to sound dramatic and I knew that there were and are always surprises in Soviet/Russian weapons but today's revelations from the highest podium in Russia about Kinzhal were shocking. The balance of power just shifted dramatically, with it the naval warfare as we knew it is no more. It is OVER!    

As it turned out, I haven't been dramatic enough. I did, however, predict already then that the new task of the United States in a face of a radical shift in power balance will be to mount a concerted effort to drag Russia at the negotiating table and try to push as many of new Russian weaponry as possible under the umbrella of one or another type of the treaty, which should mitigate somewhat a strategic catastrophe (from the Western point of view) which real revolution in military affairs brought about. First Russian-America meeting on strategic stability took place yesterday and voila'. As Interfacx reports:

Москва. 29 июля. ИНТЕРФАКС - Москва готова обсуждать с Вашингтоном свои новейшие системы вооружений, включая "Кинжал" и "Посейдон", но не видит оснований для постановки вопроса о потенциальном ограничении возможностей России в этой сфере, заявил "Интерфаксу" в четверг замглавы МИД РФ Сергей Рябков. "Для американцев эта тема представляет интерес, мы, естественно, от разговора не уходим. Суть нашей позиции в данном вопросе: для постановки вопроса в такой плоскости, а именно потенциального ограничения наших возможностей в сфере этих новейших систем, никаких оснований нет. Мы все уже давно объяснили американцам, какие из наших новейших систем подпадают под действие продленного в феврале ДСНВ. Когда эти наши системы будут ставиться на боевое дежурство, мы, разумеется, будем действовать в полном соответствии с требованием договора, в этом нет никаких сомнений", - сказал он, отвечая, в частности, на вопрос, обсуждались ли российские новейшие системы вооружений на переговорах в Женеве.

Translation:  Moscow. July 29. INTERFAX - Moscow is ready to discuss with Washington its latest weapons systems, including the Dagger (Kinzhal) and Poseidon, but sees no reason to raise the issue of a potential limitation of Russia's capabilities in this area, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Interfax on Thursday. "For the Americans, this topic is of interest, we, of course, do not avoid this conversation. The essence of our position on this issue: there are no grounds for bringing this issue in this plane, namely the potential limitation of our capabilities in the field of these new systems. We already explained to the Americans long ago which of our newest systems are subject to the START Treaty extended in February. When these systems of ours are put on alert, we, of course, will act in full compliance with the requirements of the treaty, there is no doubt about that, "he said , answering, in particular, the question whether the Russian advanced weapons systems were discussed at the talks in Geneva.

In other words. you want to talk about those systems? Sure, let's talk, but we are not putting, say, Kinzhal up for negotiations and the United States has practically nothing to offer in return to start with. Sure, there is the issue of anti-missile "defense" in Europe, but it is not the "defense" part which worries Russia, because the West has no systems which can intercept even meaningful part of Russia's missile salvo. The issue are MK-41s VLS which can accommodate TLAMs. Simple as that, but even if to imagine that the United States will be ready to bargain, neither Kinzhal nor Poseidon are "strategic" weapons in a traditional sense. Neither are Tomahawks, BTW. But let's cut all Bullshit and face the reality. Of course, Kinzhal even when carries a conventional warhead, can shift military balance in any theater of operations as fast as the first half-squadron (6-8) of MiG-31Ks could be deployed there, which is the matter of hours, half-a-day tops. Soon all military districts and fleets will have their own squadrons of those; then, the time is cut to a half-hour before on duty "couple" gets airborne. After that ANY surface fleet of any configuration which is within 3,000 kilometer radius of those MiG-31Ks, forget about TU-22M3(M) (that could be an overkill, with each of them carrying 2-3 Kinzhals), has nothing left to do but disperse and hope not to be near capital ships, such as DDGs and CVNs. 

Ryabkov's words in conclusion speak volumes: 

"Мы будем прежде всего заботиться о том, чтобы мы гарантированно были защищены от любой агрессии со стороны любого потенциального противника, включая США, а уже потом, когда мы будем иметь стопроцентные гарантии в этой сфере (сейчас они есть, но их нужно поддерживать на должном уровне дальше), уже потом мы будем смотреть, возможно что-то дальше, невозможно...это вопрос открытый, он очень сложный, и в любом случае США должны понимать, что никаких односторонних уступок, никаких просто шагов навстречу им, просто их пожеланиям без готовности США идти на компромисс, учитывать наши интересы, наши озабоченности в разных сферах, связанных с тем, что США проводят в плане развития собственной военной организации, создания новых систем, появления их в разных регионах, - без этого ничего у них не получится с точки зрения "постановки под контроль" наших новейших систем вооружений", - сказал высокопоставленный российский дипломат.

Translation:  "First of all, we will make sure that we are guaranteed to be protected from any aggression from any potential enemy, including the United States, and only then, when we have one hundred percent guarantees in this area (now they are, but they need to be supported at proper level further), only then will we look, at a possibility of something further down the road... this is an open question, it is very difficult, and in any case, the United States should understand that there are no unilateral concessions, no simple steps towards them, just their wishes without the willingness of the United States to compromise, to take into account our interests, our concerns in various areas related to what the United States is doing in terms of developing its own military organization, creating new systems, and their appearance in different regions - without this they will not succeed with the point of view of "putting under control" our latest weapons systems, "said a senior Russian diplomat.

In diplomatic language it is called "fvck off". Russians are damn aware of what is coming next for Russia's Ministry of Defense, and considering today's contract for the first 10 battalions of S-500s signed, with first battalions being deployed in early 2022 (in Russian), we may only guess what is in works. Newest Yasen M-class Krasnoyarsk will be floated out tomorrow (yes, I know, it is The National Interest):

Russia's New Yasen-Class Submarine Is Here and It Looks Fierce. Yasen-M’s arsenal will be headlined by Russia’s new 3M22 Tsirkon winged anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile, which has a top speed of up to Mach 9 and is capable of performing mid-flight evasive maneuvers.

Now they are talking about the new generation of Peresvet laser-weapons coming soon and it is also clearly stated that navalized version of S-500 is in works and I can bet my ass on this thing being installed on Peter the Great during his (her) upcoming modernization. The only real subject of negotiations today regarding genuine strategic weapons are RS-28 Sarmat and Avangard and only in terms of some (emphasis--SOME) limitation on their deployed numbers and, as you may have guessed it already, IF Russia will discuss those, the price for the American side will be very steep. Because unlike Strategic Defense Initiative, these Russian weapons are not cartoons and PR-tricks. Those are already on combat duty or in IOC and if I would have been asked to characterize those people who run Russia today in two words, my characterization would have been: not Gorbachev. And really, how often you get a leader of a nuclear superpower who is a complete moron and a door mat. Once a century? 

Why START.

Among many "accomplishments" of Donald Trump in what passes in the United States for foreign policy and national security, one of the major achievements was exiting pretty much most arms control treaties with Russia, among them START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) being most notable. As I pointed out not for once, Russia's being rather nonchalant about Trump effectively demolishing arms control regime has its reasons. The main of those reasons is Russia having a decisive qualitative advantage over the United States in delivery systems, especially in the field of stand-off high precision weapons which changed the nature of modern war and deterrence dramatically. Yet, keeping not just the United States but the world, through keeping nuclear strategic arsenals under control, from ruinous and unnecessary investment into nuclear strategic weapons, which realistically are not the weapons of war. Upgrading them, keeping them in a working order? Sure. As simple logic goes: makes no difference how many times over can the United States and Russia obliterate each-other--5-6-7, makes no difference. So, some news from POTUS, a new one. 

President Joe Biden has decided to accept Russia's offer to extend the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty for the full five years and is proposing that the two sides "explore new verifiable arms control agreements" in the future. The overture could be a bright spot in an otherwise tense relationship in the opening days of the new administration. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which caps Washington and Moscow's deployed nuclear weapons at 1,550 each, is set to expire on Feb. 5 unless both sides agree to keep it in force. "The United States intends to seek a five-year extension of New START as the treaty permits," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Thursday. "The president has long been clear that the New START Treaty is in the national security interests of the United States. "This extension makes even more sense when the relationship with Russia is as adversarial as it is at this time," she added. "New START is the only remaining treaty constraining Russian nuclear forces and is an anchor of strategic stability between our two countries."

The explanation of this change of heart is rather simple. No, it is not because Biden ran on this agenda in his bid for the White House. No, such an explanation is akin to explaining a wind as a result of the movement of the trees' branches. The answer is much-much simpler. And is looking at us from the news.

The Biden administration also says it hopes to use the extension to begin talks on a new series of arms control measures.

There we go. Plans within plans, within plans. Granted, those plans are rather obvious and are not surprising. It is the only way for the United States to get anywhere near technologies which the United States doesn't have and, highly likely, will not develop anytime soon. Sure, the United States may create a system somewhat reminiscent of the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle and, possibly, some sort of analog of the aero-ballistic Kinzhal, but in terms of multi-platform genuine hypersonic cruise missiles similar to 3M22 Zircon I doubt the United States is anywhere near to mock-up, forget technology demonstrator, not to speak of weapon nearing IOC. That's the secret to all that. Once one takes into account such system as Poseidon, let alone Peresvet capable to disable incoming MIRVs one sees immediately America's intentions in terms of START. Obviously, The National Interest's own alternatively gifted Michael Peck comes up, yet again, with self-medicating cretinism of, say, Poseidon being developed because... Russian submarine technologies are lacking, but then again, for the guy who proposed to fight hypersonic anti-shipping missiles with a standard Aegis-SM-6 package, one can also expect a proposition to fight cancer with Band-Aid.     

Obviously, a "combat" clown David Axe is not far behind, inventing all kind of amateur shit about subjects he has no clue about, but it shows an interesting pattern with the two of the most hilarious America's military "analysts" having 2018 piece reprinted (Peck) and one new published (Axe) today, precisely when the news about Biden willing, quoting Eric Zoolander, to continue talking about conversation on START, broke. This is not accidental. I want to stress it again, START by itself is not anymore about classic strategic deterrent--it is about the United States gaining any kind of insight into the technologies which drove real revolution in military affairs and, if possible, trying to squeeze as much of strategic benefits as possible. Sure. As Russia stated before--she is ready to continue talking about this conversation (c) and is even ready to consider some weapon systems, such as Poseidon, at the negotiating table. Probably, Russia may agree limiting deployed Avangards to a single division.  What Russia is not going to talk about is RS-28 Sarmat, and Zircon and related systems. This is not negotiable. Sarmat is a strategic missile, but it is a substitution for ageing Satana R-36 ICBMs, while Zircon is an ambivalent weapon capable of having a strategic impact even in conventional variant. 

So, I have a bucket of pop-corn and am getting ready to observe this whole dance around the main issue which is at the core--if Russia will rub copious amounts of salt (pun is intended: SALT) into the American wound from the necessity to negotiate from an extremely weak position. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out but Russia nowadays is extremely business-oriented and, unlike the United States, has a crispy clear understanding of her national interests. There is even a school of thought that Russia may "exchange" something for Nord Stream-2. I don't know about that. You know, I hate to speculate. Russia can freeze NS-2 for a very long time since she is increasingly involved, hydrocarbons-wise, with the Asian markets and Europe is not anymore a priority. In the end, it is primarily in Europe's interest, not Russia's. Let EU deal with it. Russia has more important business to attend to. How about keeping the world peace.

About Zircon, Again.

Judging by the stream of the news re: latest launch by Admiral Gorshkov of 3M22 Zircon, tests are very successful and as TASS reports (in Russian) another three launches from Gorshkov are planned by the end of the year. This includes the strike at the target imitating aircraft carrier. This is only natural and easy to foresee. Somewhere in these launches is supposed to be an underwater launch from one of the Yasen-class (project 885) SSGNs, last time it was Severodvinsk, I believe, which was planned to be used as a platform for this launch. As was expected, and guys on discussion boards already pointed out to this fact--there is a lot of butt-hurt and spin in Western media re: this launch. But then again, recall an initial reaction and then torturous (for the West) transition through Kubler-Ross Grief Model. It eneded up, of course, the United States demanding to include those non-existent weapons into the START treaty. I wonder why I don't hear anything yet from our great "strategist", prognosticator of prognosticators, exemplary military mind David Axe, but I am sure he will lend his expertise in Soviet/Russian weapons' programs any minute now.

I am on record, consistently, that moving into hyper-sonic paradigm IS a real revolution, cannot get any more real than that. It is a revolution because it changes the nature of warfare. Putin, when speaking to Valery Gerasimov upon Zircon's launch was explicit--it is event  of a massive scale for Russia. Well, for the world too. Another "expert", Kyle Mizokami, writing about Zircon gets it all wrong. 

Zircon is designed to use white-hot speed to hit targets before they can mount an effective defense. If a defending ship has its search radar mounted 100 feet off the ground and Zircon flies at an altitude of 1,000 feet (the real number might be much lower), the radar should detect the missile around 50 miles. At 1.7 miles per second, Zircon will close the gap in just 29 seconds, meaning the defending ship will need to detect, track, identify, launch defensive missiles, and achieve intercept in less than half a minute. 

As any Russian anti-shipping (or land-attack) missile Zircon has a multi-variant flight paths and it can approach target on different trajectories, including "diving" into the cone of radar blindness, attacking almost vertically, similar to X-32. But this is beyond the point, any intercept of maneuvering M=8+ missile is not the matter of "29" seconds (granted it will be detected at all--and there are reasons to assume that even detecting this type of missile is extremely difficult), it is physically impossible even under the best of circumstances to do anything. The salvo of 4 or 6 Zircons--it is beyond capability of the most advanced anti-air/missile systems to even react and will remain so for a long period of time. 

There is no technological solution for stopping this type of weapons  in the US currently. Ramifications are colossal: generally, it will be slow arduous reshaping of surface fleets towards smaller (frigate size) strike platforms. For Russian Navy, Zircon unties hands in terms of Sea Control not only in littoral and Green Water zones but, upon necessity, in the remote or ocean zone, allowing to guard surface strike groups against any attempts of US Navy to bring to bear its CBGs' fire power. Thus aircraft carriers are finally removed to the niche where they belong--primarily a power projection tool against unstable entities. Obviously a gigantic expenditure of building and maintaining any US Navy's CBG  raises the serious question about a validity of the approach of having roughly $20 billion worth of hardware (CVN+escort ships+air wing) being commensurate with a rather very limited tasks this insanely expensive force can perform under present conditions. It is too expensive to bomb some shithole of a country somewhere, but attacking Russia? What a wonderful collection of expensive, prestigious targets. 

With Russia having officially announced 7 subs and 5 frigates already planned for being armed with Zircon, plus having potentially other 6 modernized Udaloys (project 1155M) armed with a full version (1000+ km range), not to speak of a massive fleet of Russia's small missile ships (pr. 21631 and 22800) slanted to receive Zircon Light (around 500+ kilometer range) version, one is forced to ask a question--What Now? Now Marshal Billingslea will try to, yet again, pretend that Russia will negotiate on her newest arsenal and he will "press" Russians who, probably, will giggle in private about being "pressed", into some sort of compliance with... whatever will be the flavor of the month in D.C. Of course, the most terrifying prospect for the US is appearance of some sort of similar weapon in China's hands. Not that it will happen necessarily, but who knows--Russia will not allow China to fall militarily if the shit will hit the fan (God forbids) and some crazies (and there is plenty of those) in D.C. will decide to finally direct America's implosion outside by starting a "little victorious" war. Even old fool Kissinger noticed:

The US needs to rethink its hegemony and talk to China about imposing limits on their competition, because the alternative is the creation of conditions similar to those that preceded World War I, Henry Kissinger has warned.“Our leaders and their leaders have to discuss the limits beyond which they will not push threats, and how to define that,” said Kissinger, a top diplomat during the Nixon administration, who is credited with orchestrating US rapprochement with China. “You can say this is totally impossible, but if it is, we will slide into a situation similar to World War I,” he warned.

The United States simply has no good options currently. None. The less bad option, however, is to talk to Russians and not in terms of geopolitical BS and wet dreams that the United States, somehow, can convince Russia "to abandon" China--US has nothing, zero, to offer Russia to do so. But at least Russians and Americans may finally settle peacefully this "hegemony" BS between themselves and then convince China to finally sit as a Big Three at the table and finally decide how to run the world. This is the only chance for the US to stay relevant in the new world. US either negotiates and accepts limits of its influence or it will vanish one way or another. Anyway, there is a lot to ponder on this issue, because the world changes with the insane speed. Bad timing, I picked the wrong week to finish my third book, LOL. 

God, do you remember those times when America was fun and laughed at itself sincerely. MAFA--Make America Fun Again, I kid, I kid;) 

As Was Predicted.

By me (sorry, can I get a credit for some shit at least once in a while?), the whole fuss is about this: 

ВАШИНГТОН, 15 мая. /ТАСС/. Правительство США считает, что новые российские ракетные комплексы "Сармат" и "Авангард" подпадают под действие Договора о мерах по дальнейшему сокращению и ограничению стратегических наступательных вооружений (ДСНВ). Об этом сообщила в среду заместитель госсекретаря США по контролю над вооружениями и международной безопасности Андреа Томпсон.

Translation: US Government considers new Russian missile complexes Sarmat and Avangard to be covered by the START Treaty, That was stated on Wednesday by Deputy Secretary of the State for arms control and international security Andrea Thompson. 

In more detail is here:

Washington also assesses that three other Russian systems - a nuclear-powered cruise missile, the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle and the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile - constitute a "new kind of strategic offensive arms for purposes of New START," Thompson added.

Well, well, well, what do ya know. It took only a year, within which the United States finally understood ramifications of the new weapon systems. State Department could have saved a lot of time and money should they have read my books and warning I issued on March 5, 2018.

Putin’s message was clear: “You didn’t listen to us then, you will listen to us now”. After that he proceeded with what can only be described as a military-technological Pearl-Harbor meets Stalingrad. The strategic ramifications of the latest weapon systems Putin presented are immense. In fact, they are historic in nature.  

Never in modern history had a geopolitical balance shifted so dramatically in such a short time as it happened  on March 1, 2018, with Russia leading what became a REAL Revolution in Military Affairs. I cannot stop stressing two things:

1. Hyper-sonic weapons Russia presented are not Wunderwaffe but they are perilously (for the United States) close to it;

2. Now Putin (yesterday) launches new program on anti-hyper-sonic defense, plus Russia continues to roll out some mind-boggling systems such as EW complexes and now signs contract for first 76 SU-57s (Just in case). 

So, who knows what is coming after, say, such systems as S-500. But one thing is absolutely clear--the United States will do its utmost, including by means of "improving relations", or rather imitation of such improvement, in its futile attempts to slow down an ever widening technological gap which drives modern geopolitical realignment and return of Russia to the global stage as a superpower. US will try to put new existing and upcoming weapons systems under the limitations of all kinds of treaties but, if the US wants to taste own medicine, it should go back to 2002 to unilateral abrogation of 1972 ABM Treaty and the way Russia literally begged to preserve it. We know the rest of the story. Now, one in his own mind, must ask a simple question--will Russia repeat, as did Soviet Union, a suicidal and self-humiliating rejection of own national interests in a delusional pursuit of acceptance to the combined West, especially when having a decisive conventional and nuclear advantage over the United States? Well, I think we all know the answer. As I stated in conclusion then:

If warnings and the demonstration of Russian military-technological superiority will have an effect, as was the Russian intent from the beginning, some sensible conversation on the new world order may start between key geopolitical players. The world cannot afford any more a pretentious, self-aggrandizing and hollow bully which knows not what it does and threatens the world’s stability and peace. American self-proclaimed hegemony is over where it really matters for any real and perceived hegemon—the military field. It was over for some time now, it just took Putin’s speech to demonstrate the good old Al Capone truism that one can get much further with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone. After all, Russia did try a kind word alone, it didn’t work and the United States has only itself to blame.

P.S. I knew that Kinzhal was immediate game-changer.  

Do It, Or Else.

That is Pompeo's "ultimatum" to Russia to "comply" with INF Treaty within 60 days. What Pompeo and neocon cabal in D.C. do not understand is that Moscow knows America's behavior several steps ahead. It is easy to forecast since Empire is nauseatingly predictable in self-destructing behavior. As was expected, Russian response to US was "or else what?" The bluff, yet again, will be called and the US will exit both INF and START treaties (START will follow later) because US still thinks that it is scary--it is scary, alright, in a sense of a monkey with a grenade, but in terms of actual policies and actions--US can do very little to influence Russia and, in order to stop Nord Stream-2, among other things will continue to increase the number of provocations akin to Kerch Strait snafu. But, American vassals in Europe are also getting a bit jittery. 

Der Spiegel still asks what will happen if Moscow disagrees with ultimatum (Google will do the job)? 

Dort aber endet die Einigkeit auch schon - denn was passiert, sollte Moskau nicht einknicken, ist offen. Das Problem: Russland besitzt ein Waffensystem, das die militärische Balance in Europa gefährdet. Wolle man Russland wirkungsvoll von weiteren Aggressionen abschrecken, das sagen selbst moderate Experten, werde die Nato wohl wieder aufrüsten müssen. In Frage kommt dann entweder der massive Ausbau der Raketenabwehr in Europa oder die Stationierung neuer nuklearer Mittelstreckenwaffen. 

Well, Der Spiegel is slow, Russia already explicitly stated that it has all means to counter, if need be, and if Germany and Europe really want to draw large fat targets on their maps--they might as well do it now. Russia has means which cannot be stopped by any existing or perspective anti-missile systems, so militarily it really doesn't matter for Russia. For Europe? 

Well, US also wants to exit INF for a number of Chinese "reasons", since China's defense rests to a large degree with China's medium and short range missile technology which comes very handy for the First Island Chain strategies. But while at it, the US sees a great opportunity to coral Euro-wussies and in doing so also stop this proverbial natural gas pipe from being completed, thus making primarily German industry, inevitably, less competitive and more reliant on her big boss across Atlantic. As one observer noted recently, Germany needs Nord Stream-2 way more than Russia does. This is a fact. The sabotage of the Nord Stream-2 will mean much higher energy costs for already high energy share costs of German machine-building complex (Germany's crown jewel) and that means a chance for the US to save herself by becoming an energy exporter (it is most likely a utopian dream but...) and more competitive on the European market. 

To understand that European elites, most of whom were grown and conditioned within the confines of American system of elites' manufacturing, are stupid is not difficult. There is another suicidal client in Europe and it is France. No, I am not talking about riots. As Ria (in Russian) gave a superb review of France's nuclear power energy sector, France declared that she will be shutting down a truck load of its nuclear power stations in the nearest future and will concentrate more on "renewable" sources. Last time I checked, France has a common border with Germany--why wouldn't French ask what happened to Germany's energy sector "managed" by Greens' lobby? French announced an impending closure of a number of her nuclear-power stations, whose share in France's electricity production is 71+%, the highest in the world. But no, France decided to screw herself on the advice of former French "environment" minister Nicholas Hulot whose competencies in energy sector are...drum roll in journalism and environmental activism. Well, you get the picture. So, for all intents and purposes, Russians do not really have anyone with competencies and real power to talk to in the combined West. Western elites are simply incompetent.

The US, and Trump, are not treaty-worthy because the US is not really governable anymore, Europeans are too "liberal" and globalist to follow own real interests--so, how do you deal with them? You just step back and let them do their own thing but you keep your whip ready. Combined West is imploding and there is no denial of this fact. The last remaining vestiges of competence in business are not applicable directly to the governing principles for the nation. This is a global crisis of liberalism, my friends--it is not just economy, it is all of it: cultural, spiritual, moral and ideological. It simply doesn't work and the last hope today is with this guy in Kremlin and his buddies to figure it out how to land this crazy world softly, with as little damage as possible. China may help, but will she? I guess we'll see.  

Funny START.

And here we go again. As I stated before, Russia is not going to discuss ANY of Russia's new weapon systems within extension of the START III (New START) treaty between the USA and Russia. Simple as that, in fact--absolute no-brainer. All those negotiations are merely exercises in semantic futility since, as Vice Chairman of Defense and Security Committee of Federation Council Evgeny Serebrennikov pointed out today (in Russian):

    Russia can prove that RS-28 Sarmat is not covered by START. 

He also (tongue in cheek?) expressed hope that maybe American side will accept Russian arguments on this issue. Of course, the United States will not do so under any circumstances. Everybody knows it and it all becomes just the matter of posturing. Ironically, Russia can easily prove Sarmat to be not covered by START since Sarmat can carry hyper-sonic gliders, which are conventional (that is non-nuclear) weapons with a truly strategic impact. But then again, the whole plethora of brand-new Russian weapons was designed from the outset as a dual, nuclear and non-nuclear, capability. 

What will the US do to apply pressure? It is obvious--it will place some weapons, from INF-abrogating ballistics to ABM systems into the territory of its lap-dogs such as Baltic states and more of the same into Romania. After all, as General Hyten stated a week ago:

• America's top nuclear commander warned Tuesday that Russia and China are not "friends" of the United States, while the two nations sprint to develop hypersonic weapons a threat, the United States currently cannot defend against.
• "You can't call them [Russia and China] our friends if they're building weapons that can destroy the United States of America," U.S. Air Force Gen. John Hyten said.

Well, yes--I understand John Hyten's sentiment but this is not how competition between peers works. Especially, I underscore that, between Russia and the US. Only retards or completely sublime people believe anymore in America's "good intentions" and "friendship"--Russians know all too well what does it mean. So, in this case Russia will survive the status of America's "not-friend" but will continue to develop and increase its lead in new weapon systems in order to prevent some hot heads in Washington from exercising all kinds of nutty ideas. Well, one of these ideas is so stale and so unimaginative (lack of imagination is a defining feature of current American exceptionalist view of herself) that now it creates only boredom among real experts.

The United States wants to repeat Cold War 1.0 in which it concluded (wrongly) the Soviet Union bankrupted itself in the arms race with the US. Reality, of course, was very different but it is difficult to explain to people who write doctrines for Washington establishment (Deep State, BORG, whatever one wants to call it) that they have to take a reality pill and start assessing United States' REAL standing in terms of power competition in the military-technological field. I am not going to wax Clanciesque here but the simple truth is that any American move on confronting Russia militarily already has a response which nullifies any attempts. Obviously, once the US violates INF Treaty (it will) the flight time of ballistics launched from the Baltic States against targets in Russia will be very short. This, most likely, will necessitate a deployment of S-500 AD complexes in appropriate sectors, including Kaliningrad, this is not to speak of the immediate measures against US proper, not just Europe, with conventional "calming" strike on equally significant non-civilian object. But that is the reality which Deep State still can not face--only those who have a decisive conventional superiority control escalation to the nuclear threshold. I have some news for "exceptionalists" and neocons--it is Russia. But I am sure, at least some of them know that--that is why they are so desperate and hysterical.   

So, the Cold War 2.0 is on and it will only escalate, with economic pressure and sabotage against Russia only increasing but, as old Heraclitus wisdom states, one cannot step into the same river twice. Russia learned a hard lesson with the combined West in the words of Putin:

Our biggest mistake was that we trusted you too much. You interpretedour trust as weakness, and you exploited that 

Russia learned her lessons, will the US?