Showing posts with label arms limitations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label arms limitations. Show all posts

Thursday, July 29, 2021

You Get Gorbachev Only Once a Century.

Or even millennium. Cowardly, very narrow-minded and hollow. He is, certainly, one of the most outstanding dumbfvcks in history who managed to destroy his country, granted it needed some changes, and who became an embodiment of human incompetence. Despite leading Soviet scientists and military people telling him that Strategic Defense Initiative (aka Star Wars) was mostly smoke and mirrors, Gorbachev and his cabal of "reformers" decided that they can use SDI as one of the excuses for entering negotiations with the United States on matters of Strategic Arms Limitations, Anti-Missile Defense and humiliating and grossly disadvantageous for USSR INF Treaty which was presented by Gorbachev as an "achievement", when in reality it was nothing more than surrendering already emerging decisive Soviet advantage across the whole spectrum of weapon systems. The problem, of course, was the fact that Gorbachev being a door mat for his late wife and being a stubborn village jackass, wouldn't know the difference between shit and shinola, nor could recognize, despite multiple warnings, that he was played as a preschooler by the West.  

Gorbachev was dealing with cartoons and a lot of speeches ABOUT SDI, while having under his command what already then was becoming not only the best Air Defense system in the world but some of the most advanced and breakthrough technologies in both weapon systems and their enablers. But the guy was a moron with agenda and he, probably, wasn't that disposed against being duped to start with. He had a "plan" and we all know how well it worked... for the West. But time never stands still and tables tend to be turned once in a while. Obviously SDI turned out to be nothing more than a PR trick and once the heritage of tractorist Gorbachev and alcoholic Yeltsin was dealt with, new strategic and technological reality begun to emerge, being the sum of all things described above and more, not least a complete loss by Russia and Russians of any trust to a combined West. All this resulted in Russia declaring a new era of warfare and of global balance of power shift on March 1, 2018.  I wasn't melodramatic or driven by pathos when wrote then:

As it turned out, I haven't been dramatic enough. I did, however, predict already then that the new task of the United States in a face of a radical shift in power balance will be to mount a concerted effort to drag Russia at the negotiating table and try to push as many of new Russian weaponry as possible under the umbrella of one or another type of the treaty, which should mitigate somewhat a strategic catastrophe (from the Western point of view) which real revolution in military affairs brought about. First Russian-America meeting on strategic stability took place yesterday and voila'. As Interfacx reports:

Москва. 29 июля. ИНТЕРФАКС - Москва готова обсуждать с Вашингтоном свои новейшие системы вооружений, включая "Кинжал" и "Посейдон", но не видит оснований для постановки вопроса о потенциальном ограничении возможностей России в этой сфере, заявил "Интерфаксу" в четверг замглавы МИД РФ Сергей Рябков. "Для американцев эта тема представляет интерес, мы, естественно, от разговора не уходим. Суть нашей позиции в данном вопросе: для постановки вопроса в такой плоскости, а именно потенциального ограничения наших возможностей в сфере этих новейших систем, никаких оснований нет. Мы все уже давно объяснили американцам, какие из наших новейших систем подпадают под действие продленного в феврале ДСНВ. Когда эти наши системы будут ставиться на боевое дежурство, мы, разумеется, будем действовать в полном соответствии с требованием договора, в этом нет никаких сомнений", - сказал он, отвечая, в частности, на вопрос, обсуждались ли российские новейшие системы вооружений на переговорах в Женеве.

Translation:  Moscow. July 29. INTERFAX - Moscow is ready to discuss with Washington its latest weapons systems, including the Dagger (Kinzhal) and Poseidon, but sees no reason to raise the issue of a potential limitation of Russia's capabilities in this area, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Interfax on Thursday. "For the Americans, this topic is of interest, we, of course, do not avoid this conversation. The essence of our position on this issue: there are no grounds for bringing this issue in this plane, namely the potential limitation of our capabilities in the field of these new systems. We already explained to the Americans long ago which of our newest systems are subject to the START Treaty extended in February. When these systems of ours are put on alert, we, of course, will act in full compliance with the requirements of the treaty, there is no doubt about that, "he said , answering, in particular, the question whether the Russian advanced weapons systems were discussed at the talks in Geneva.

In other words. you want to talk about those systems? Sure, let's talk, but we are not putting, say, Kinzhal up for negotiations and the United States has practically nothing to offer in return to start with. Sure, there is the issue of anti-missile "defense" in Europe, but it is not the "defense" part which worries Russia, because the West has no systems which can intercept even meaningful part of Russia's missile salvo. The issue are MK-41s VLS which can accommodate TLAMs. Simple as that, but even if to imagine that the United States will be ready to bargain, neither Kinzhal nor Poseidon are "strategic" weapons in a traditional sense. Neither are Tomahawks, BTW. But let's cut all Bullshit and face the reality. Of course, Kinzhal even when carries a conventional warhead, can shift military balance in any theater of operations as fast as the first half-squadron (6-8) of MiG-31Ks could be deployed there, which is the matter of hours, half-a-day tops. Soon all military districts and fleets will have their own squadrons of those; then, the time is cut to a half-hour before on duty "couple" gets airborne. After that ANY surface fleet of any configuration which is within 3,000 kilometer radius of those MiG-31Ks, forget about TU-22M3(M) (that could be an overkill, with each of them carrying 2-3 Kinzhals), has nothing left to do but disperse and hope not to be near capital ships, such as DDGs and CVNs. 

Ryabkov's words in conclusion speak volumes: 

"Мы будем прежде всего заботиться о том, чтобы мы гарантированно были защищены от любой агрессии со стороны любого потенциального противника, включая США, а уже потом, когда мы будем иметь стопроцентные гарантии в этой сфере (сейчас они есть, но их нужно поддерживать на должном уровне дальше), уже потом мы будем смотреть, возможно что-то дальше, невозможно...это вопрос открытый, он очень сложный, и в любом случае США должны понимать, что никаких односторонних уступок, никаких просто шагов навстречу им, просто их пожеланиям без готовности США идти на компромисс, учитывать наши интересы, наши озабоченности в разных сферах, связанных с тем, что США проводят в плане развития собственной военной организации, создания новых систем, появления их в разных регионах, - без этого ничего у них не получится с точки зрения "постановки под контроль" наших новейших систем вооружений", - сказал высокопоставленный российский дипломат.
Translation:  "First of all, we will make sure that we are guaranteed to be protected from any aggression from any potential enemy, including the United States, and only then, when we have one hundred percent guarantees in this area (now they are, but they need to be supported at proper level further), only then will we look, at a possibility of something further down the road... this is an open question, it is very difficult, and in any case, the United States should understand that there are no unilateral concessions, no simple steps towards them, just their wishes without the willingness of the United States to compromise, to take into account our interests, our concerns in various areas related to what the United States is doing in terms of developing its own military organization, creating new systems, and their appearance in different regions - without this they will not succeed with the point of view of "putting under control" our latest weapons systems, "said a senior Russian diplomat.

In diplomatic language it is called "fvck off". Russians are damn aware of what is coming next for Russia's Ministry of Defense, and considering today's contract for the first 10 battalions of S-500s signed, with first battalions being deployed in early 2022 (in Russian), we may only guess what is in works. Newest Yasen M-class Krasnoyarsk will be floated out tomorrow (yes, I know, it is The National Interest):

Russia's New Yasen-Class Submarine Is Here and It Looks Fierce. Yasen-M’s arsenal will be headlined by Russia’s new 3M22 Tsirkon winged anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile, which has a top speed of up to Mach 9 and is capable of performing mid-flight evasive maneuvers.

Now they are talking about the new generation of Peresvet laser-weapons coming soon and it is also clearly stated that navalized version of S-500 is in works and I can bet my ass on this thing being installed on Peter the Great during his (her) upcoming modernization. The only real subject of negotiations today regarding genuine strategic weapons are RS-28 Sarmat and Avangard and only in terms of some (emphasis--SOME) limitation on their deployed numbers and, as you may have guessed it already, IF Russia will discuss those, the price for the American side will be very steep. Because unlike Strategic Defense Initiative, these Russian weapons are not cartoons and PR-tricks. Those are already on combat duty or in IOC and if I would have been asked to characterize those people who run Russia today in two words, my characterization would have been: not Gorbachev. And really, how often you get a leader of a nuclear superpower who is a complete moron and a door mat. Once a century? 

Friday, May 10, 2019

Mr. Pompeo Goes to Sochi and Moscow.

Ok, US Secretary of the State Pompeo will travel to Russia to, quoting, AFP:
It is, of course, a positive development, once one considers alternatives, but as Russian media report (in Russian), while Iran, Venezuela and other hot issues are on the agenda, it is the issue of arms control which Washington is most interested in. Obviously State Department paints this seemingly noble effort with a broad brush, talking about multi-lateral negotiations (well, China, it's you)--this is all fine and dandy, who would argue against that. Except, two teeny-weeny issues:

1. China's Intermediate Range missiles--that means reach of any US base around China, Diego Garcia included, and that is a big no-no for the US in a scenario of China's containment, but...

2. By far the most important issue for the US are those mysterious weapons nasty Russkies invented to prevent peaceful triumphant spread of democracy--those weapons will be discussed. Of course, to no avail. 

Russia once trusted the US, in 1990s. We all know how it all played out, for Russia. So, do not expect Russia to be so utterly stupid as to even negotiate any latest weapon systems many of which...drum roll...are "ambivalent". You know, exactly as the United States proclaims its "no first use" ambivalence supported by the vague justifications for the use of nuclear weapons, as the saying goes--two can play the game. Then, of course, nobody in Russia takes Trump (or his Pompeo envoy) seriously anymore. Trump is militarist and his overtures to Russia, from the inception, have nothing to do with desire to reach stable and just geopolitical equilibrium but a desire to "triangulate" and enroll Russia in US, most likely, last stand against China. People in Kremlin can calculate and do operate within reality-based paradigm, a feature everyone of any significance in Moscow knows is missing from current American outlook on herself and the world outside Washington D.C. 

No, of course, as I stated not for once, talking is better than fighting, but the truth is--today the United Sates simply has NO geopolitical currency left to pay for anything of value. Especially such value as Russia. Sanctions on Russia? Sure! In fact, not for once I and many other people in Russia stated--sanctions are good for Russia, they drive her modernization, while driving Russia's liberasts--main source of info on Russia for US intelligence and "academe"--totally insane. Double win for Russia. Russia certainly is not going to attack the US but she will never refuse a massive lead in military technologies which provide her with the revolver at the temple of American insane exceptionalists and neocons. Such as, and you guessed it already, Pompeo or Trump's very own draft dodger and, as Rod Ridenour states in his book, one of many Trump's very own Dr.Strangeloves, he surrounded himself with--I am talking about Bolton, of course. Who in their mind would even seriously discuss anything with these people? Meetings? Sure. Talking? Sure. But no arrangement can be made with the United States anymore, since it is increasingly non-governable entity with utterly corrupt political institutions at the very top. 

Two years ago I stated:
It seems the opposite had happened and no amount of spin can help to hide anymore the obvious fact that Trump's human and political failure is just the symptom of a much larger underlying condition, a very American condition in essence, a complete loss of touch with the reality.