Showing posts with label Nord Stream 2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nord Stream 2. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 4, 2023

WTF.

I don't even know how to interpret this shit anymore. It defies human logic. 

Exclusive: German insurers renew cover for blast-damaged Nord Stream gas link. LONDON/FRANKFURT, April 4 (Reuters) - German insurers Allianz and Munich Re have renewed cover for the damaged Russia-controlled Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, five sources with knowledge of the matter said, indicating that its revival has not been ruled out after an alleged sabotage attack. Insurance by two of Germany's biggest companies is critical for any long-term future of the pipeline, which was the main route for Russian gas to Europe for a decade before the blast last September.

I think they need to update themselves on what Lavrov stated two days ago when commenting on Russia's new foreign policy concept. He stated that EU is an "unfriendly" union and if they want Russia's favors, they better become friendly, which is a euphemism for removal of current European "elites" or, in layman's lingo--regime change. This, of course, is impossible and de-industrialization of EU will continue apace. In fact, it only accelerates and EU poodles will find little sympathy in Beijing too. Simple as that. Let Europe eat cake.(c)

Tuesday, December 14, 2021

While I Am Making New Video.

Here is excellent summary by Alexander about the clusterfuck which modern Germany is and what it accomplishes by means of her new foreign minister. Russians, obviously, laugh all the way to the bank and for all intents and purposes Russia has already returned, or is about to, her investment into NS2. 

You literally cannot make this shit up. 

In related news, many lament what they call Putin's coup in India.

Russia last week announced a major new energy cooperation deal with India that threatens the very core of the U.S.’s fightback strategy against Beijing’s and Moscow’s expansionism in the Middle East and beyond. The main hydrocarbons deal will be for Russia, via oil giant Rosneft, to supply almost 15 million barrels of crude to Indian Oil, by the end of 2022. Given the massive geopolitical ramifications of any sizeable oil deal, it was entirely legitimate for Igor Sechin, Rosneft chief executive officer and close friend of Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to say of the deal that: “The signing of a new oil supply contract confirms the strategic nature of the long-term partnership between Rosneft and Indian Oil.”The deal takes on even more significance as it was just one part of 28 investment deals between Russia and India signed during the very recent visit of Putin himself to Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. These covered a broad range of subjects, including not just oil, gas, and petrochemicals, steel, and shipbuilding, but also military matters.

Sechin is on record about the fate of USD as main currency in hydrocarbons trade, which, in his words, is very unreliable. Look it up, it is widely available through respectable news sources. Same as mythological calamity of disconnecting Russia from SWIFT, which in reality is not that big of a deal, de-dollarization of oil trade is in progress and, really, the only decisive reason this didn't occur earlier was because the US would provide "attitude adjustment" by bombing the shit out of any country which has oil reserves, because oil reserves are primarily located in countries which cannot defend themselves. Russia and China, obviously, can and in our fast changing world, if it comes to it, Russia can provide necessary security guarantees to those who want to use other currencies in such a trade. 

Obviously, the dawning understanding that nothing could be done about it drives many in the US completely mad and makes them hysterical. Such as this specimen:

President Biden, more than a little bit upset by this other president and his amassing tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine’s border, says No and recently threatened sanctions in a trans-Atlantic video session with Putin. Biden is falling short, but gets that Ukraine is now an advancing democracy and wants to go its own way despite once being the most important part of Russia. Ukraine already is combating Russia-supported rebels, and Biden understands that Hungary, Poland and the Baltic states could be next in line for takeovers. The threat also is to Europe, just as Putin sees a threat to the new Soviet Union if he does not ward off NATO and Europe by making sure that certain border nations belong to him. Yes, it’s the case that Russia is dwindling in population and wealth, with the selling of gas and oil pretty much a definition of its limited economy. What it lacks in money, however, it makes up for in nuclear weaponry, enough to just maybe blow up half the universe, and the development of hypersonic missiles that the United States does not have.

This childish rubbish is characteristic of 90% of the US "journalism" and this tune about "dwindling population and wealth" is so out of whack, that one has to question mental abilities of this dude, Jay Ambrose:

Who, if being an ignoramus is not bad enough, passes for a "conservative" journo.  Well, there you go. Enjoy, while I am making my new video.

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Tough Talk, As Usual.

US State Department declares that it will counteract Russia's "military activity" near Ukraine (in Russian) and we all know that it cannot but there are other ways. 

The U.S. imposed sanctions on a ship involved in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as the Biden administration looks to exert more pressure on Russia without antagonizing Germany.

In related news, I have in mind a list of janitors and drivers from Gazprom who could be sanctioned by the US. Hey, that will show them, damn Russkies. And, of course, how can one live without Ted Cruz performing a simulation of productive activity. 

The move is unlikely to mollify critics of the Biden administration in Congress. Lawmakers from both parties want the U.S. to take a tougher stand against a project they say undermines European security by giving Russia more leverage over the continent. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has held up most of President Joe Biden’s State Department nominees over the issue.

That's modern America for you. Having said all that, I want to reiterate--NATO doesn't have forces not only to "counter-act" anything Russia does but even if it wanted to it still has no means to fight a war with Russia. Meddling in 404? Absolutely! Throw in some advisors, some Javelins, some ammo and some boats. Of course, it changes absolutely nothing, but CJCS General Milley and Valery Gerasimov had a conversation today over the phone.

Amid growing tensions in Europe, Russia's most senior military general, Valery Gerasimov, has discussed “pressing issues of international security” with his direct American counterpart Mark Milley, during a phone call on Tuesday. The Pentagon confirmed that the two “military leaders discussed several security-related issues of concern.” The phone call was part of efforts aimed at ensuring “risk reduction and operational de-confliction,” its statement added.Neither the Pentagon, nor the Russian Defense Ministry have revealed any additional details of the call in their respective statements. It came as Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said American nuclear-capable bombers had made dozens of sorties across Eastern Europe in recent weeks.The drills involved the bombers practicing “their ability to use nuclear weapons against Russia,” Shoigu said after meeting with Chinese defense minister, Wei Fenghe, in Moscow on Tuesday.
It is good that they talk, because the rest of a discussion in the US public policy sphere, including the US State Department, is a show for US media. Here is an example, General Keane providing zero content of any value on those hyper-sonic technologies (and Ukraine, of course). 
I respect General Keane's career and all, but he really should update himself on "what the US learned" about Soviet Union and deterrence. I'll give him a hint--US learned nothing. At this stage I doubt that General Keane who is retired and is 78, I believe, even despite his, I am sure, serious connections in Pentagon fully grasps what has already transpired. For starters the United States never could defend itself from the launch of Soviet cruise missiles and that is why were so anxious to sign the INF treaty which would make this missile removed from Soviet subs.Obviously we are talking about RK-55 Granat (SS-N-21) "Sampson" cruise missile. But never allow facts to get in a way of a good narrative, including this BS about Russia "invading" 404. 
 
But Keane struck me absolutely with his lack of understanding what it means to "intercept" hyper-sonic missile. Apart from the fact that US recon satellites and X-37 are already made obsolete, especially with S-550 and A-235 already deployed or about to be deployed in the nearest future, especially as mobile complexes, the main question is this: even if you see the hyper-sonic weapon's launch, what are you going to do about it? Moreover, you can "observe" gliders, what are you going to do when you "observe" launches by 3M22 Zircon or Kinzhal from MiG-31K or TU-22M3M, how does it change the situation for the targets. I have the answer--changes absolutely nothing because you cannot shoot down those. There is nothing in the US arsenal now and in the foreseeable future which can intercept Mach=9-10+, let alone M=20-27, targets. That's the issue. Same analytical method applies to a situation in 404. The only thing US (NATO) can hope for is to somehow provoke Russia into the invasion of this shithole of a country and then get ball SIGINT it can once Russia's C4ISR gets into full combat mode. 
 
Only military "experts" from the US media still believe that:

Russia still has a military edge over Ukraine, but Ukraine has plans to make a future war more costly for Moscow.

They have no clue how this war, if it comes to it, will look like, including if NATO, headed by the US, decides to somehow "intervene". Here is a question to General Keane--what are you going to do if this happens and provocation succeeds? Keane was in Vietnam, so he knows how it looks and feels like when things go not as planned. I am not counting all those "experiences" in Iraq and Kosovo as serious campaigns. I already gave a ball park number of a required NATO force to fight Russia in Ukraine--it has to be around a million of combat personnel to have any chance to accomplish anything, forget having some sort of "victory", whatever it will be called such by NATO. Good luck assembling it in a month (while Russia can mobilize 2 million in approximately the same time), or even in 3 months and then trying to conduct combined arms operations in 404. The United States cannot conduct serious combined arms war in Europe even if it wants to--she simply has no resources for that and time doesn't stand still. With each passing moment the myth of the "finest fighting force in history" evaporates and without this myth the scaffolding of the American Empire continues to collapse with the increasing speed. The time is running out fast, really fast.

This is what drives D.C. insane, especially humiliated Pentagon, which still has enough policy "advisors" (mostly civilian political scientists warmongers) who think that the US can fight Russia in Ukraine. As Bernhard of Moon of Alabama suggests:

The White House Needs An Off-ramp From War In Ukraine

For an institution which didn't win a single war in the last 70 years with the exception of a turkey shoot against utterly backward Iraqi force and never faced equal of superior enemy (no surprise for an institution venerating a military mediocrity such as Patton as a "great" general) the desire to wash off, let's speak without undue restrain here, the shame of Iraq and Afghanistan, the idea that they can fight Russia is down right preposterous. As are, for the most part, most of the military power metrics used till recently by the US policy-makers as a proof of the US military superiority such as... the size of military budget and visuals of, indeed, impressive US Navy carriers. As Bernhard concludes:

I don't think that a deal would actually help Biden in the polls. The hawks would scream about it. They want a war in the Ukraine and the U.S. involved in it. However the U.S. public is still unlikely to support a war against Russia which would likely soon escalate. But a Ukrainian Russian war that the Ukraine is sure to lose and in which the White House does not intervene will lead to huge loss of face. That prospect then may indeed motivate Biden to give Russia the guarantees it wants.

Now, Andrei Raevsky gives a good write-up on Russia's forces and their distribution at what one would call "threatening directions (axis)". Andrei concludes:
And so, yes, of course, NATO commanders are frightened by what they see, this is true, and quite understandable.  What is not understandable is why these delusional idiots created the condition which left Russia no other choice than to be ready to fight a full scale war in Europe, including a nuclear one.
And that is why Milley and Gerasimov spoke to each-other. Russia's and America's war experiences can not be compared, Russian one dwarfs that of the United States both in scale, scope and in quality of enemies Russians fought in defense of their country. With the exception of the magnificent US victory in the Pacific in WW II, most of US military experience is that of an expeditionary force designed to fight utterly inferior opponent, and even here the American record is not impressive. But, as I am on record non-stop, the US is ungovernable and is immersed in the internal life-and-death struggle between several oligarchic clans which do not give a rat's ass about the well-being of the majority of Americans, most of who are just decent folks who want to live their lives, and about once beautiful country which was the envy of the world. 

Tuesday, June 8, 2021

Lie Down With Dogs, Get Up With...

Well, you all know how it goes. Already in 2015, when ukranization of the US foreign policy started in earnest (I wonder how much competition is there between Israel and Ukraine at this stage) one US Senator got himself a flea infestation, when:

The 'exclusive' photos of 'Russian invasion in Ukraine' in 2014 turned out to be easily found in the Web, with at least one of them dating back to 2008. Now, US senator James Inhofe is furious with the Ukrainian delegation for setting him up with the 'evidence'. Questions have been raised about the veracity of reports that claim Russian troops have invaded Ukraine after US Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe confessed that several photos of Russian convoys he obtained from a Ukrainian parliamentary group were taken during the 2008 Georgia conflict, the Washington Free Beacon said. On Tuesday, the Washington Free Beacon ran a story that unveiled "exclusive" photos of victims of militia bombs and Russian armed vehicles seemingly rolling into Ukraine. The photos were provided to Inhofe's office in print by an obscure Ukrainian delegation, led by a Georgetown professor, who said the images were taken at the height of Russia's alleged military incursion between August 24 and September 5, 2014.  

Now America's Ukie "friends" have their own ideas on how the whole NATO proceedings should be conducted and they simply do this:

The White House and the Ukrainian government initially sent out conflicting official accounts of Monday's phone call between President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Why it matters: Ukraine's government initially reported on its official website that Biden had "highlighted... the importance of providing the Ukrainian state with a NATO Membership Action Plan," which would put Ukraine on course for membership in the alliance. The White House denied Biden expressed support for such a step on the call.

Oh come on, guys. Give poor Ukraine a break, they want to matter so much that "little" lie here, "little" lie there shouldn't matter, really. Why don't the US give Ukraine codes from the US nuclear weapons, that is a swell idea. But in the game who will pay for this shithole of a country one very important step has been made. Not that the promise from D.C. worth anything but Anthony Blinken stated:
Translation:  The United States have all intentions to "compensate" Ukraine for the possible loss of payments (due to Nord Stream 2) and provide for "Russia not using gas as the instrument of coercion".  
 
That's more like it, after all (don't forget to turn on English subs) this was stated just couple of days ago.
Generally, chutzpah is the MO of Ukraine (also known in Russia as Country 404 or simply 404), so financing killing people of LDNR and alleged "war with Russia" should rest, as 404's thinking goes, on Russia financing 404's armed forces by means of paying for the transit of gas. This is so...Israel-like, who gets free US money to occupy territories, which do not belong to Israel. Well, Russia is no US and is independent from anyone in formulation of her foreign policy and follows this good ol' principle--you broke it, you bought it. The US broke 404 (together with EU), so the US must pay, simple as that. Putin, ever relaxed, meanwhile trolled the new MI-6 boss who insists that Russia is a "declining power". 
I have to admit, the pool of imbeciles ready to spew any kind of propaganda BS in the West is limitless. The decline is not just visible, it is dramatic, if not shocking. As Matt Purple noted (correctly):
 
So, make your own conclusions. 

Thursday, May 20, 2021

Bernhard Is Furious, And Rightly So.

Bernhard of Moon of Alabama is furious with Glenn Greenwald and rightly so.

B's fury is entirely justified. Recall what I wrote few years ago about US "realists". I merely qualified them as yet another iteration of the American exceptionalists. Even American "realists" still operate on the utterly false basis of the American omnipotence and God-given right to decide what to do and how to do it, including making decision for others, denying them any subjectivity and the right to decide for themselves. 

As I wrote yesterday, and B confirms it, US dropping sanctions on Nord Stream 2 is a result of Germany finally having enough of the US meddling into Germany's affairs, especially having, for Germany, an existential significance, once one considers Germany's industrial and living energy costs being one of the highest in the world. Yet, Greenwald, evidently thinks that the US "granted" Germany the right to have NS2 completed this year. This is a very wrong way to rub German business. But then again, recall John Mearsheimer, one of the foremost US realists talking couple of years ago about Russia as having economy the size of Texas (or Spain, or Netherlands, what have you) and "mediocre" Armed Forces. This is not an exception, this is a feature of American "realists". They still think that the United States controls the world and is the one which grants everyone the right to exist.This is a complete delusion. 

American circumstances today are dire--both economically and politically, with country losing fast its weight and influence globally and being, for the lack of better word, a complete fvcking mess internally, surviving only on printing a shitload of money which already run a serious inflation. Reputational losses are altogether a whole other story ripe for truckload of Ph.D theses to be written on that issue. It took Germany merely an act of a serious talking to the United States and threatening with actions--some of them could include a complete reorientation towards Eurasian projects--that the US got the message that not only it may lose its main vassal, which is trying to break the bonds of vassalage as we speak, but any serious prospects in Europe. Now imagine US worst nightmare: Berlin-Moscow-Beijing axis and a much faster coalescence of the colossal Eurasian space into a unified market. That removes the US immediately to the rank of the regional powers and to the fringes of what evolves already into the engine of global economic and civilizational development. 

This will happen one way or another, but at least, as the US thinking goes now, this will be a somewhat protracted process once Germany's demands re: NS2 are accepted and the sanctions are dropped. This, as they think in D.C., buys the US a little bit more time but it also marks a rather significant inflection point in the post-Soviet history of Europe when Germany stated her interests clearly and exhibited a will to defend them and the United States caved in. Let's be honest, with Russia's support behind the scene. And those ARE Germany's interests because Germans are the ones who finance a huge share of NS2 project. Who gave the United States the right to decide for Germans, or, for that matter, anyone else how they are supposed to live and solve their internal problems? And Germany, sure as hell, has a shitload of problems, many of them of own making, but it is what it is. Things change, ever so incrementally, until they accumulate into a qualitative shift and this is exactly what we observe today in the US-German relations. 

But, as I said--Zugzwang, ladies and gentlemen. You observe here a classic case of Zugzwang and of a black belt level geopolitical Judo (or Aikido). Well, Putin and Steven Seagal are personal friends, I am sure Steven has shown his martial arts buddy some Aikido moves. But in the end, these are German people who have the right to decide how they want to live and run their country and no one has the right to deny them this opportunity. It is also crucial for Germany in the long run if it wants to get well after a long and nightmarish globalist slumber. Germany is not a country in the Middle East or in Central America, which could be sneezed at by the US and it seems Germans begin to get a feel of that.

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Probing Limits.

I will not mince words here: Russia doesn't need meeting with Biden (or whoever is running this POTUS avatar), US establishment (large portion of it), on the other hand, needs this meeting badly. Both sides know it, but Russians, who learned to calculate the US actions (not that difficult, actually) several steps ahead are perfectly fine with playing such a role. Russia does not need the US for a number of reasons, few main of which are:

1. Russia is largely secure economically from the US. De facto allied relations with China and friendly relations with with Asia more than compensate for whatever Russia may lose (or already lost) in her trade with combined West;

2. Militarily, Russia has the edge over the United States even the Soviet Union couldn't have dreamed about;

3. Russians know damn well that US crisis (I write about it for years) is systemic and even under the worst global circumstances short of all out thermonuclear war, Russia has all the time she needs and may even not strain herself doing much observing this train-wreck of a combined West exiting global stage as a decisive force. 

4. Last, but not least... Russians know that the US needs this summit. Russians even know why the US needs this summit and Russia is content with playing the role of a hard to get maiden, who wouldn't? Especially knowing that whatever may be negotiated and settled with the US at this possible summit will not be worth the paper it will be written on. It never is, because the US is non-agreement capable. 

But the US needs this summit to demonstrate own significance to  her European vassals and maybe, just maybe, introduce a degree of strain into Russian-Chinese relations. After all, US political top and media are packed with pathological liars and it wouldn't take them any effort to spread and spin all kinds of BS about this possible summit. To a detriment of Russian-Chinese relations, of course. In the end, Biden's appearance next to Putin (for the photo-op mostly) increases Biden's mojo, not Putin's, whose scale as a statesman is long ago secured in Russia and globally.  

So, today, in Iceland, about 35 years since the first meeting of Gorbachev and Reagan there, the dance starts:

The main question is, of course, what's in it for Russia? Putin is not going to attend possible summit for the photo-op only, which is absolutely the case for Biden. Putin's scale and position today is such that the only equal to him statesmanship-wise figure globally is Comrade Xi. Biden for Putin at this stage is a "marrying down" option. Not to mention the fact that Putin represents an ascending power, while Biden is an EPITOME and embodiment of the America's departure from largely self-proclaimed position of hegemon. Recall what I wrote four and a half years ago. I will remind you:

For some reason, many people in the US who offer this bizarre triangulation with using Russia as an ally for the US in her struggle against China, still reside in late 1980s-ealry 1990s thinking that Russia is simply still enamored with the US, her standard of living and culture. This simply has no bases in reality anymore. Russians, unlike it was in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, are simply not interested in US anymore. Other than Russian traditional fear (justified completely) that some nut-job in US will start a war with Russia, the appeals of US "democracy" and liberalism faded dramatically and overwhelming majority of Russians merely go about their daily business and live their lives. The US in Russia today are viewed mostly from the point of view of a threat--a dramatic departure from 25 years ago when United States were viewed as an ally and a friend, those sentiments disappeared pretty fast. Russians' "going about their daily business" involves a lot of bread and butter issues and here United States are not even in the first ten of Russia's main trading partners but, as you may have guessed it already, China, sure as hell, is. Thus the irresistible and highly warranted question arises: what's in it for Russia? What can possibly United States offer Russia economically, when economic dynamics in Eurasia offers Russia a host of incredible economic opportunities?  
Remember what was the title of that post? It was Does United States Have Enough Currency? To buy Russia, of course. The US didn't have it then, today--it is not even close. No matter how one tries to spin it, but even the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has for Russia primarily geopolitical, not economic significance. This pipe-line is a life-line for Germany. Deny Germany this life-line and, well:

The Biden administration has waived sanctions on a company building a controversial gas pipeline between Russia and Germany. The US also lifted sanctions on a Russian President Vladimir Putin ally who leads the firm behind the Nord Stream 2 project. The move came in a report on Russian sanctions delivered to Congress on Wednesday by the Department of State. Critics say the pipeline is a major geopolitical prize for the Kremlin.
This is not a charity move on Biden's side. Not at all, nor is it along the lines of reduction of tensions between the US and Russia Biden's people so love to talk about as of lately. Much of this decision is driven by Germany's sudden allocation of at least rudimentary spine and making sure that the US gets the message that it is risking a lot if it succeeds in sabotaging NS2 and that, as you may have guessed it already, plays into the Russian hands yet again because of major political repercussions in Germany even if the Bundestag gets to be much "greener", because at stake is an issue of  Germany remaining the first world nation and EU's largest economy. Even utterly corrupt and stupid globalist shills such as German Greens are not ready to play with this. Not yet, anyway. Zugzwang, ladies and gentlemen. No matter what you do--you lose. And those damn Russians win one way or another. Don't tell me that I didn't warn you. 
 
In related news:

MOSCOW, May 18. /TASS/. The SWIFT international payment system has confirmed to the Central Bank that it will work in Russia as usual and there is no risk that the country will be disconnected from the system, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Olga Skorobogatova, speaking in the State Duma, the lower house of the parliament."We are in constant and direct contact with SWIFT, both with the headquarters and the Moscow office. They confirmed it to us that SWIFT will work as usual, without any problems, and we do not see any risks at the moment," she said. Skorobogatova noted that even if Russia is disconnected from SWIFT, interbank transfers can be transferred to the Russian counterpart - the Financial Message Transfer System (FMS).

I know, I know, it is so fvcking frustrating to be an American diplomat nowadays, because you come to meet Russians and those SOBs stare at you with their smug faces (wink, wink) and already know what and how you will be saying and doing not only now but later. It is infuriating for American exceptionalists and neocons because they literally are impotent to do anything about it. Not only US "diplomats" are not real diplomats--they are merely conduits for Washington's diktat--and are outclassed by Russia's and China's real diplomats, but they don't have on their side what they thought they always had, when talking to third world shitholes and confused and weakened Russia of 1990s, who was suffering from a self-inflicted wound--a real military and economic power.  

In some bizarre way, I think, the United States performed a great service to Russia and her people when, being driven by incompetence, myopia and thirst for instant gratification, unleashed a mayhem in Ukraine in 2014. They awoken in Russians this ever-present but unseen by strangers what Tolstoy described as a "warm light of patriotism" and that was it. Ukraine's bloody coup finally opened eyes of Russians on their own fate and attitudes to life and former "brotherly nations" and freed them from any illusions on this account. It also pushed long overdue economic transition into the overdrive and we see the results of that every day. As a Russian I say this with a great pride and a sense of achievement. As an American citizen I cannot deny also a sadness from seeing what has been done to the United States in the last 25 years and how Russian-American relations have been practically destroyed, being slaughtered as a sacrificial lamb at the altar of America's hubris, self-delusion  and exceptionalism. Today the United States reached its absolute limits in power and influence and it is probing them, only to recognize that those limits are one massive concrete wall which cannot be breached, no matter the scale of an effort. This is the reality and it seems that someone in D.C. begins to recognize it. 

In related news:

The Russian armed forces have recently accepted into service the Yenisei radar detector, which has exceptional tactical and technical capabilities and can be used as part of both the S-400 and S-500 air-defense missile systems. According to a high-ranking source in the Russian military-industrial service, the new radar was put into service in late April.

Here is S-500 getting on-line. This thing is, obviously, some very bad news for many. But about this later. 

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Even She Gets It.

I mean Frau Kanzlerin begins to suspect that it is not about Russia or "democracy", it is about devouring Western Europe and putting Germany at the altar of America's desperation to preserve an illusion of own hegemony, for just a little bit longer, as a first sacrificial victim. The rest of Europe will follow. Today she figured it out, sort of...

Frau Merkel forgot only one thing, Nord Stream 1 (aka NS) was completed in 2011-12, in the times when, despite the United States already being vehemently opposed to this pipeline, it was a really bad idea to admit to Europeans that they were being held merely as a meal ready to eat (MRE) by the United States, which called them still "partners" and "allies". At that time, on Obama's watch, everything in the US was supposed to be running smoothly and efficiently, you know "the finest fighting force in history", Obama's uncle liberating Auschwitz and things of this nature. The going was good still, or at least it was viewed as good, and it was possible to play the game of "allied relations" and "common values" with Europeans who thought that the US was in Europe to "protect" them. 

Well, it is 2021 and we all know the score, more or less. The United States cannot compete with Russia or China and is in a terminal, for the America's self-proclaimed hegemony, decline; to stop it America needs Europeans to become food. Unsurprisingly, those in Europe who have some brains left after a thorough brainwashing and blackmailing do not want to become food for the United States. Who would? Well Poland and Baltic States with Ukraine would, but they are merely jackals circling the table with the main course on it, or, as Ukraine, are used condoms to be thrown into the trash bin. The main course is Germany, because once it is eaten, the rest of Europe will follow. Now Germany's colorless and not very bright Frau Merkel notes:

“I have the impression that with Nord Stream 2 we may be waging a conflict that is much wider, and touches upon the question of the extent to which we want to trade with Russia, especially in the energy sector,” 

The hell you say, Einstein. Russia can live without Germany, in fact Russia's very successful import-substitution program was launched precisely to achieve this goal--living without dependence on Europe. It is Germany which is an occupied country and which cannot admit to itself that it is being slowly cooked by the US to achieve German industrial collapse to open the road for both American (that means Russian ones bought by US and re-sold to Germany for much higher price) hydrocarbons and industrial products. One shot, two rabbits, the American thinking goes, "opening" German market while making German products much less competitive at the American one. That's the plan anyway and to implement it, Germany must be denied Russia's affordable energy. Nord Stream 2, thus, delenda est. 

There is one problem here, though, for America and her lapdog UK, America's geopolitical thinking and planning, such as Skripal Affair, Czech 2014 explosion of munitions storage, allegedly by Russians, with ensuing diplomatic comedy, or attempts to light up several simultaneous conflicts around Russia, not least through attempts at the overthrow of government of Belarus--all of those attempts failing spectacularly--are just some indicators of an extreme detachment of the US establishment from the reality and its inability to face facts. US will throw under the bus anyone, if need be, such as it happened with Czech republic, always heavy on Russophobia, and these all are desperate attempts by the US in trying to prevent integration of West European economies into the colossal Eurasian market being formed by China and Russia. As I wrote two weeks ago:

So, Russia just goes about her business because she knows the game, she knows the score and she long ago calculated the United States' moves, which are not, frankly, that difficult to predict. Scott Ritter is way more than me informed about the underwater currents inside the Beltway and he may well be right when stating this:

These are policies pushed and promoted by the “Putin whisperers.” For the moment, their will continues to prevail. But their days are numbered, as realpolitik pragmatists in the White House, Pentagon and Intelligence Community are recognizing the reality that the days of taking for granted US global hegemony are over, and that for the United States to remain relevant, it must adapt to the reality of a multi-polar world, and Russia’s rightful role therein. This will not happen overnight, but it is in the process of happening. In promoting and supporting Biden’s latest round of sanctions, the “Putin whisperers” have reached their high-water mark. From here on out, their influence will begin to ebb as the national security demand for fact-based assessments outstrips the domestic political need for fact-free propaganda.

But something tells me that it is now too little, too late and cleaning what amounts to US foreign policy Stables of King Augeas will require a man of Herculean abilities and courage, especially after the wasteland left in domestic and foreign policies by America's (and Israeli-first) neocons the likes of Kagans, whose intellectual abilities are inversely proportional to their gigantic ambitions, and whose damage to Russian-American relations and America herself is profound and not easily fixed, if it is possible at all. When even meek and cowardly Frau Merkel begins to understand that the bottom is in sight, that tells you something. 

Thursday, January 28, 2021

Just Yesterday I Posted About It.

Bang, today--another iteration by Tucker and Glenn Greewald of this simple idea, which so much has been written and talked about, especially by Michael Hudson, that "financial capitalism" and system it produces is basically a BS which not only does not produce anything but metastasizes into political instability both internally and abroad. 

The only thing I disagree with is this "Silicon Valley" products, much of them being as virtual as any "financial engineering". Enough to take a look at this news.

It is clear the United States is being demolished as an industrial country and, if to follow a rather convincing, albeit not perfect, theory that the United States is merely a vehicle for global finance then it inevitably leads us to a conclusion that the life of the United States as a useful economic vehicle is over and the demolition is in progress. This view, certainly, has its merits. I am sitting here with a bucket of pop-corn waiting to see the sequence of the largest cognitive dissonances in the camp of fanatic libertarians and laissez-faire enthusiasts, primarily from GOP--I do not count Democratic Party as sane political organization--who will have to now try to defend a real economy's demolition by the ideology which is in the foundation of their MO--making money, anyway they can. Again, let's recall that day in 2000

This is the start of the US industry being shipped in earnest to China. Do you see those red colors enthusiastically voting "Yea", in fact, they voted it with "fuck, yes". Those are all GOPers, and while outsourcing chipmaking is not China-related, it makes little difference for average Joe or Jane since, in the long run, they are screwed all the same. Right, the idea was: let's remove all those industries elsewhere, while we, in America, will strategize, conceptualize, interface and prioritize(c). 

In other words, do nothing but steal. I know it is almost unfair to use Russia as an example but here is how real economy looks like. This is a gigantic shipyard being built in Murmansk Region by energy giant NOVATEK. The shipyard will produce floating natural gas liquification plants, aka GBS LNG platforms. The scale is massive. 

Or this:
You can see the video (in Russian) here. 15,000 people are building this monster with a dry dock of 415 meters. Considering that the whole thing is also needed for "other" projects which may or may not be of pure LNG nature (wink, wink). Having said all that, here is another picture which gives the impression of an immense scale of the construction.

So, Russia taking the third place in global shipbuilding is not just inevitable but merely a matter of a relatively short time. This also is a cushion, of sorts, if Europe succumbs to US pressure and rejects Nord Stream-2, Russia's LNG will still be much cheaper than any alternative. Rostislav Ishenko recently stated that NS-2 for Russia is now primarily a political matter, rather than economic one, because Russia will do just fine without NS-2, which I happen to agree with, but she shouldn't give up on it for geopolitical reasons. Maybe, but in the end, Russia is not responsible for Europe and if the US manages to shut down NS-2, let Europe live with the consequences. European intransigence is Europe's problem, Russia's future in any case is NOT with Europe in general. But as they say, we'll see about NS-2. Maybe Germany will find a spine at some point of time. If not, to hell with them all in EU. But this was my position for years now, for all my OK awareness of the geopolitical factor, but at some point of time one has to consider pure economic sense.

Monday, September 21, 2020

Anyone Thought Otherwise?

 As I pointed out yesterday, Russians will yawn. They did. 

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia sees minimal chances of extending the New START treaty with the United States - their last major nuclear arms pact - as it does not accept conditions set out by Washington, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted as saying on Monday. He spoke came after Marshall Billingslea, the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control, told a Russian newspaper that Moscow must accept a joint agreement with Washington on extending the treaty before the U.S. presidential election in November. "I suspect that after President Trump wins re-election, if Russia has not taken up our offer, that the price of admission, as we would say in the U.S., goes up," Billingslea told Kommersant newspaper in an interview. Ryabkov said that position constituted an ultimatum and lowered the chances of reaching any kind of agreement to extend the deal, which expires in February next year. "We cannot talk in this manner," TASS news agency quoted Ryabkov as saying. Another news agency, RIA, quoted him as saying the chances of a treaty extension were "minimal".

As I say non-stop, unless one rehearses to go out on the stage of the Saturday Night Life for some absurd, and long ago stopped being funny, skit, this whole START "business" doesn't even qualify for a minimally amusing routine. One doesn't talk in ultimatums to the only power on Earth which can turn D.C. into parking lot even without nuclear weapons but these simple skills are beyond the grasp of American "diplomacy". Lack of culture and sophistication in D.C. prevents them from understanding a simple principle which is: ultimatums tell more about the side which issues them, much more and are the first sign of desperation and weakness in a dyadic relations between US and Russia. Russia is not compromising on her arsenal, in fact, something tells me she is holding something back. To be revealed when the time comes.  

Pompeo, in his interview to Bild (in German), declared the creation of anti Nord Stream 2 "coalition". This is not news and Russia is pretty nonchalant about it. Obviously it is all about US LNG, which MUST go to Europe, both to finance US ailing economy and kill any prospects for already barely competitive EU products. It is between Germany and the US. It is all boring. And, really, did anyone think that Russians will react otherwise to ultimatums? I know, I know, history is not a strong point in D.C. but they should really refresh it once in a while. I mean real history, not narratives.

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

And So It Starts.

As was expected, the US decided that she has resources to challenge China.  Including First island Chain, my oh my. 
WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) - The United States on Monday rejected China's claims to offshore resources in most of the South China Sea, drawing criticism from China which said the U.S. position raised tension in the region, highlighting an increasingly testy relationship. China has offered no coherent legal basis for its ambitions in the South China Sea and for years has been using intimidation against other Southeast Asian coastal states, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement. "We are making clear: Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them," said Pompeo, a prominent China hawk within the Trump administration. The United States has long opposed China's expansive territorial claims on the South China Sea, sending warships regularly through the strategic waterway to demonstrate freedom of navigation there. Monday's comments reflect a harsher tone. "The world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire," Pompeo said.
Immediately, what strikes one is Pompeo's attempt to internationalize the conflict. I will omit now legal issues here, I am interested in the purely operational aspect of this whole South-China Sea thing. US has only one way of challenging China for real, if, God forbids, this will come to blows--these are Indian Ocean's SLOCs through which much of the resources from Africa and Middle East reach China by sea. I discussed it in length many times. First Island Chain, or near it, is a completely different game because China does have what it takes to "close" the area. As the article states:
"This is basically the first time we have called it illegitimate," Chris Johnson, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said of Pompeo's statement. "It's fine to put out a statement, but what you going to do about it?"
Exactly, that is the whole point--sending two CBGs in the area is an old propaganda trick, considering the fact that apart from old inventory PLA Air Force has a rather impressive inventory of around 600 thoroughly modern and even very advanced combat aircraft with a 100 of them being fully Russian-built Su-30 and Su-35. Once one adds China's indigenous and Russian-built AD systems such as S-300 and S-400 one has to ask a question, do those two CBGs feel lucky? Once the factor of supersonic and hyper-sonic anti-shipping missiles is taken in consideration, Pompeo's attempts to internationalize the conflict begin to make sense for the American side. 

The whole thing is not about "freedom of navigation" per se, it is about waking up to the reality that the US being squeezed out of Eurasia and that it realistically has no resources to do anything about it other than threaten, make grandiose statements and impose sanctions. Militarily the US has no chance against China unless it can "compartmentalize" possible clashes on the periphery of the area and declare possible tactical success a strategic victory for domestic consumption. Meanwhile the US slaps yet another round of sanctions on Nord Stream 2 (and Turkstream) and it is becoming rather stale by now:
These are desperate moves by the US, especially when one considers an impressive dynamics of pipe-lines' development between Russia and China, as NS 2 spokesperson noted:
Efforts to obstruct the project "reflect a clear disregard for the interests of European households and industries, who will pay billions more for gas if this pipeline is not built," said spokesperson Steffen Hartmann.
Can we please drop this BS, when was the last time the US "regarded" anything other than own, and even then doing it grossly incompetently,  interests. In the same time, I do not have any sympathy for Europe--you asked for it, you got it. The US will, effectively, subvert cowardly Europeans and this economically collapsing Atlantic "union" will eat itself alive, until it hits the state of a third world. As one Russian energy expert noted few days ago--Europe is not a priority anymore for Russian energy. Back to China, the only hope for the United States in a clash with China is the fact that US Navy, for all its major issues, still, for now, remains operationally in a different league with China and that may be the only factor which realistically plays for the United States under present circumstances. In the end, China's shipbuilding industry dwarfs that of the US and is extremely well financed. Russia will take care of China's energy and, who knows, even targeting data. 

In related news, Admiral Kasatonov got its acceptance papers signed today, the official commissioning to the fleet (raising of the flag) is planned for July 21 (in Russian). Admiral Golovko is next in line. Mind you--all these ships carry 3M22 Zircon. So, all in all, things progress in a very positive direction for the Russian Navy. Considering the state self-proclaimed hegemon is in nowadays--additional safety measures cannot come soon enough. 

Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Couple Of (Important) Points.

Mark Chapman (The New Kremlin Stooge), thank you Mark, pointed out to this news which created a lot of consternation in Trump's Admin. As Russian daily Gazeta.Ru titled it: Nord Stream-2 Broke Through All Obstacles (in Russian). Denmark folded and the road to completion of this strategic pipe-line is open. Deutsche Welle reported on that. New sanctions from the US? You can bet your house and 401K, if your have any, on that. But the choice is Europe's (ahem, Germany's) if Germany still wants to preserve what's left of her industry, which, of course, is the matter of national survival. It is slightly more than mere bread and butter issue. Meanwhile Russians and Chinese begin to run the world in accordance to their own vision. 
Russia and China have blocked a proposal at the United Nations Security Council aimed at keeping open two border crossings that channel aid into Syria’s opposition-held northwest from Turkey. Russia, which backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the conflict, previously made clear its intent to veto the proposal, despite last-minute hopes the Kremlin might abstain. According to Reuters, Russia and China want to approve only one aid crossing from Turkey for a period of six months.
Obviously, the UN definition of "opposition" is a complete baloney since involves a lot of jihadist element supported by the West and, before Western powers begin to shed crocodile tears about "humanitarian situation" in Syria, they, together with Turkey, better look in the mirror to see responsible for this catastrophe. 

But if that wasn't bad enough for Western propensity to support all kinds of democratic jihadists, news from this Eurasian Front are getting even worse for the Empire which is the process of a complete implosion. 
The author of this piece does provide a look at the rationale' for this new massive pipe-line for both sides. Of course, COVID-19 features prominently there and people from Moscow's Carnegie Center (why not then just go to CIA and ask directly) offer their views. China's rationale', however, is very clear: it is geopolitical and no amount of fluffy platitudes can obscure the unfolding of the conflict between the US and China and China's necessity to have energy supplies secured. No, of course, the author still tries to look academic and concludes:
Despite the favorable environment, it is yet to be seen whether a deal can be struck. In the case of Power of Siberia-1, it took four years to sign a contract from the moment terms and conditions were agreed. Furthermore, construction took five years after the long-term contract agreement was signed. Power of Siberia-2 could take a similar amount of time meaning it could be operational around 2030. Gazprom’s flexibility in considering the Mongolia route offers an additional advantage. Russian gas could be supplied to the heavily polluted capital city Ulan Bator which ranks among the most polluted cities in the world. Poverty and a relatively small state budget rule out big energy projects that would bring cleaner fuels to Mongolia's cities. The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, therefore, is a unique opportunity. However, the biggest beneficiaries would be China and Russia because the pipeline could further solidify the political and economic integration of the world's second-biggest economy with the world's largest energy producer.
My only question here is this--is this dude fvcking for real. Did I just read his rating China's monstrous economy as the "second-biggest" in the world? Well, there goes your Western expertise (or is it mental incapacity?) when economy which dwarfs that of the US (I assume, "number one") is called "second-biggest". You make your conclusions how much such an "analysis" is worth. As if the butt-hurt hasn't been evident through this piece of "analysis", Russia confirmed that:
MOSCOW (Pakistan Point News / Sputnik - 08th July, 2020) Deliveries of the Russian-Chinese CR929 long-range twinjet aircraft may start in 2028 or 2029, Ravil Khakimov, the head of Russian manufacturer Irkut Corporation (part of United Aircraft Corporation), said on Wednesday.
I guess I don't need to elaborate on what I elaborated not for once that CR929 is effectively a dam on the flow of the Western wide-body commercial aircraft to China, yes, that "second-biggest" economy's gigantic air-travel market. How large is this market. Let me give you some visual representation of the size of that market in one of the sectors which was always viewed as West's dominated--automobiles. You know, motor-vehicles. 
Observe, in motion, how US "elites" sold out own country and its people, and continue to so as I type this, for a few dollars more. The faster they recognize (they will--this is not the issue, the issue is to keep them away from military) that it is over for them and that they are losers both externally and internally, the less pain will be inflicted on the majority of Americans and many people outside the US. In the end, combined West thought it had it all, whatever it was--it is not there anymore. 
Airbus SE failed to secure any aircraft orders for a third month this year, as the collapse in global air travel battered demand for new jetliners. 
It is not true, actually, Russia and China need many of those. But Russia's MC-21 couldn't have come out at a better time. As couldn't new Russian Constitution. But that is the whole other story, a gigantic one.  

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Atlantic Partenrship (wink, wink).

I said it many times--for the United States Europe is just a market, the lunch to be eaten to extend the life of a buckling Empire, and EU better get used to itself as being nothing but a consumable. A sacrifice for the greater good to be brought at the altar of democracy and its main exporter and an expert in how democracy is supposed to work and what it means.  As Handelsblatt reports: 
Machine Translation: The Americans could soon be ready for the next strike against Nord Stream 2. If Russia tries to complete the missing kilometers of the pipeline in the Baltic Sea, the House of Representatives and the Senate are ready to enact another sanction law, it is said in diplomatic circles in Washington. This time it could hit the European investors involved in the project, or possibly the companies that want to buy the gas should it ever flow. It could all happen very quickly, it is said, possibly in February or March.

Germans worry. Of course they should--they killed their own energy sector (and continue to damage it as I type this).
Concern is growing in the German economy. "Without Russian natural gas, ambitious climate protection goals cannot be achieved in Germany in the short and medium term if we want to maintain affordable electricity prices and thus an energy-intensive industry," urged Oliver Hermes, Chairman of the East Committee of German Business, in a recent speech. His appeal: The EU must learn to defend itself. "If we don't find an effective answer to such extraterritorial sanctions, the European economy will become a game ball for Americans and Chinese." 
Hello, Germany? Read my lips, or, rather, read my syllables: you CANNOT have affordable energy without nuclear and cheap gas, period. And no, Russia is not going to allow you to employ her mammoth electric grid and generating capacity to compensate for your sheer idiocy when your electricity oscillations will threaten your grid and economy. All your "climate protection goals" are a complete anti-scientific BS, a figment of imagination of ignorant lefties who worship Musk and Bezos, virtue signal even when taking a shit at a public restrooms in Bundestag, while masturbating to Greta Thunberg. These are your elites Germany (I omit here the rest of Europe), deal with it. I understand this statement, in the end of this piece:
The European market is just as important for US companies as the American market for companies from Europe. Counter sanctions would be painful accordingly. However, the government in Washington should consider such a decision by the Europeans as the ultimate escalation. The consequences for the transatlantic relationship could hardly be calculated.
Exactly, and none of you, including France, Low Countries and Scandinavia will be competitive against US goods and very expensive energy once you achieved your "climate protection goals" and stop being competitive anywhere. So, the only faint hope for Germany are those Russkies who, frankly, do not give a shit about US sanctions and will complete the pipe. But in the end, a whole of Europe will do as the United States tells it to do and the United States will tell Europe to de-industrialize because the United States wants to live too. And there will be no consequences for transatlantic relations because all European elites are transatlantic elites, conditioned through indoctrination, blackmail and bribes to do what they are told to do by their masters in D.C. Time for Europe to experience allied relations to the full extent of the American geopolitical shaft. In the end, Europe and some parts of Latin America are the only places where American orders still matter.

Meanwhile, Russia is not interested anymore in Greater Europe, because Russia is too deep into Greater Eurasia project and she already made her "civilizational" mind up--EU is not in Russian plans in any way, let alone for some sort of integration. To integrate with WHO in Europe, and WHY? I always said that never again should the foot of Russian soldier step onto European soil under any circumstances. Let them deal with each-other and, something tells me we didn't see the last of Color Revolutions and Democratic Regime Changes--Europe seems like a good candidacy, plus US military democracy-radiating bases are already there, including in Germany, many of them. After all, Germany is an occupied country by those nasty Soviets, ah, wait...silly me, USSR doesn't exist anymore, but still, and Germany should behave herself as one. Europe made her choice long time ago, she must bear responsibility for that choice, even if it will be unpleasant and a painful process. I am sure an injection of a new doze of transatlantic values is long overdue for Europe. Repeat after me: Greta, Greta, Greta....

P.S. If anyone thinks that Nord Stream-2 sabotage may hit Russia, they should think twice, Russia, of course, wants to exclude Ukraine from any transit, but think strategically for a while--Germany is already hurting because of the sheer lunacy of her internal economic policies. Now get this: if European goods become very expensive and Russia has an economy which produces pretty much everything--put 2 and 2 together.  Plus, of course, unlike Germany Russia has enough TNT equivalent to not give a shit about threats from anyone. I'll give you a hint: 
German conglomerate Siemens has applied for a special investment contract to localize production of its high-capacity gas turbines in Russia. The move follows a 2017 scandal over the supply of Siemens turbines to Crimea.Under the terms of the contract, the components of the ‘hot gas path’ and the gas turbine automatic control system will be localized in Russia until the middle of 2023, according to the Siemens press service.
Too bad, for Siemens, it was too little, too late (in Russian). Yes, I know, this world is so unjust, wink, wink.