About Eurasia and Globalists' ...

 ... sheer terror. I want to explain again to those who love fast Hollywood action and want "results" now because they think that world revolves around them--it does not. Geopolitical shifts the likes which we observe now, while being almost instant in historic time measure still take time in human terms--years and even decades. So, the new world which is already in place is sprouting as I write this. Here is hint: 

MOSCOW, April 24 — RIA Novosti. Tehran has provided exceptions for a number of countries, including Russia, in the issue of levying fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Ambassador to Moscow Kazem Jalali told RIA Novosti. "At the moment, we have provided exceptions for some countries, I don't know what will happen in the future. However, at the moment, our Foreign Ministry is trying to use the exceptions provided for friendly countries, for example, Russia," the ambassador said, answering the relevant question. 

And that's just the start. Choke points from now on will cost money and that is one of many instruments of a geopolitical payback to the West--equalization of profits. 

In related news, Larch directed my attention today to this: India-Russia military logistics pact: 

A quiet game‑changer from the Arctic to the Indian Ocean. The RELOS agreement lets both countries station troops, ships and aircraft on each other’s soil, taking long‑standing defense ties to their next level. 

I wouldn't call it "quiet", I would call it sensational in a sense, as Air-Marshal Anil Chopra explains, there is a hell of a difference between some logistic arrangements with the USA and with Russia. 

LEMOA is a “tailored” arrangement for India, a version of the standard Logistics Support Agreement (LSA) that the United States signs with its allies. It streamlines reciprocal logistical support (fuel, food, spare parts) during port calls, joint exercises, and training, enhancing maritime operations. COMCASA enables the US to share secure, specialized communication equipment, facilitating better operational coordination and interoperability. It directly enables Indian forces to use US-made high-tech systems securely. Both are part of four foundational agreements (including GSOMIA and BECA) designed to boost defense cooperation, enhance mutual trust, and facilitate secure, real-time information sharing. However, the RELOS pact signed with Moscow is different from the agreements New Delhi has with Washington because it allows the permanent stationing of troops, aircraft, ships, etc. which is not the case in any other agreement.

And it all rests on the fact of Soviet Union being a huge supporter of India throughout history and, of course, this:

The agreement is crucial for India, as it supports maintaining the 60 to 70% of India’s military inventory that is Russian-origin, including Submarines, Su-30MKIs, and S-400 systems. RELOS enhances the operational reach and endurance of the Indian Navy and Air Force, especially for Russian-origin platforms, and improves logistical readiness for distant operations.

Of course, everyone saw the "deliveries" (delayed by years) and "performance" (shocking for many) of the US hardware. India wants both S-500 and SU-57, especially against the background of Algeria already flying their export versions. And then there is always Pakistan and China, and now the US, towering behind it. For India it is always a geopolitical ballet, especially when it comes down to national pride and still a long way before India can call herself a genuine superpower. But there is absolutely no doubt that India's future lies with newly reshaped Eurasia. Example of Iran today serves as inspiration for the "Global South" and gives a lot to think to Indian politicians about their future geopolitical bets. 

Modi Is Under Fire ...

 ... one of the MPs in India's Parliament accuses Modi of kneeling before Israel while Khamenei became a martyr. 

The timing (and essence) of Modi's visit to Israel couldn't have been worse. And that is to put it mildly. 

Now to some "dawning" of the reality on those who thought they knew. Yeah, "paper" everything is a derivative enabler for speculation and manipulation. 

The oil futures paper market is likely underestimating the massive supply disruption that a closed Strait of Hormuz is creating in physical crude and fuel supply globally. Crude futures prices briefly spiked early this week to $119 per barrel, before retreating to the $90s and trading at $100 a barrel early on Friday in Asian trade. However, the premium of physical Dubai crude has surged to $38 per barrel over its paper equivalent, according to data compiled by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell. The wide gap between paper and physical prices suggests that supply is being immediately choked off. But traders on the paper market appear to believe that the record-high emergency stocks release and the U.S. Administration’s scrambling to calm the markets with comments that the war will end soon would ease the upward pressure on oil prices.

I want to reiterate--average "trader" on any paper market is nothing but a product (at best) of some MBA program from Ivy League degree mill and knows nothing about real world and how it operates. It is a crowd ready to buy any political BS as long as it serves short term speculation and profit. I will reiterate--the US doesn't have strategic intelligence and strategic forecasting as a craft in principle. What passes for both is an academic and ideological fraud. 

Larry's Excellent Writeup ...

 ... on Gulfies and India. Especially India. 

Russia, instead of leaving India to sleep in the bed it made with Israel, highlighted its readiness to support India, but at a cost. For instance, earlier in March (around March 4), sources indicated Russia was prepared to divert oil cargoes (e.g., ~9.5 million barrels near Indian waters) and potentially raise India’s share of Russian crude imports to up to 40%. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned receiving “signals of renewed interest” from India in larger volumes due to the crisis. Amid the surge in demand for Russia’s Urals crude, Russia hit India with a firm, but diplomatic, reminder of the cost of betraying a friend. Prior to the attack on Iran, Russia sold oil to India with deep discounts ($10-13 below Brent pre-conflict). While promising to help India compensate for its loss of Persian Gulf oil, Russia inoformed Modi that India would have to pay a premium of $4-5 over Brent for March/April deliveries. This reflects market forces rather than explicit “assurances” of continued discounts; some reports frame it as Russia treating it more as “business” without prior friendship-based concessions.

A reminder (again): 

Russia can remain magnanimous ... for additional price, of course, and India is about to learn it the hard way.  

From Indians Themselves.

What anyone with a single commercial aviation groove in the brain was getting in the last 10 years--this is from Indians themselves and explanation of why this is a BFD, if you know what this acronym stands for. 

But then again, Russian-Indian cooperation in military sphere remains exemplary, albeit not without classic Indian quirks. Correct, this is a strategic move which works extremely well for both sides. And yes, many times yes, you cannot sanction fully Russian made planes, period. 

There are ONLY two nations in the world which can out of  own resources and know-how build commercial aircraft domestically ground-up: United States and Russia. In terms of regional turboprops and regional jets it is Russia only. A shocker for some, I know. You cannot explain this reality to some MBA from Harvard--no tool kit. And even United States increasingly begins to depend on many parts being built not in the US. But, of course, do not forget American mighty jet engines industry. That, for now, remains home and is not going anywhere. So, enjoy the video. Short and to the point, no BS. 

Press Setting ...

 ... and go to English language (auto-dubbing) and listen to a superb review of Russian-Indian cooperation in air technology. Very interesting.

Correct ...

 ... that's the name of the game for this crowd which finally recognized what I was talking about for 11 years. 

More than five years ago I wrote:

Economic self-sufficiency which is also a foundation of REAL national security starts from industry. No industry--no American nation. Simple as that. Modern generation of American "elites" has no idea, or, possibly, doesn't even care about what happens when the attempts to re-industrialize fail precisely because no one knows how to do it for real, not by doing what they got used to do--"printing" money which only accelerates a decline, towards eventual disintegration. So, here it is--no real recovery without real industries, which translate into real employment, this means reorienting production for the internal market and.... here we pause, because this seemingly simple scenario requires a long and substantive debate because this is where the issue of trade comes in and 99.99% of the American "elite" are a free trade neo-liberal fundamentalists who have neither knowledge nor skills to avert what is already not just on the horizon but knocking on the door. If you think otherwise, just take a look at the graphs above, especially a 10 year one. Things just got worse, not better since 2010. I am sure vast number of events coordinators, DJs and shopping assistants will have to rethink seriously their career choices if they even want any shot at any vacancy in a dramatically shrinking America's basis, before collapsing superstructure buries them.   

Capital also loves victors. Here "isolated" Putin is greeted (in a pleasant violation of protocol) by his buddy Modi. 

If rumors about new lease of a nuclear sub to India are correct, something tells me that Russia may provide Indian Navy with the very first hull of project 885 SSGN Severodvinsk. She can carry 3M22 Zircon but her main load is P-800 Oniks, which, of course, India has and it is called Brahmos. This is a transfer of an enormously powerful technology. But again, the production of Sukhoi 100 at HAL facilities for India's market has been already discussed, I am positive it is greenlighted now. 

Everybody Knows ...

 ... how huge it is. In India they know. 

Andrei Belousov is already in India. 

For Morons Who Still Don't Get it...

 ... this is Chakra 2 SSN. 

Project 971 Nerpa SSN. State-of-the-art nuke which served in Indian Navy for almost 10 years. Before that, that was Chakra 1.0. Project 670 SSGN and command-navigational circuit of Indian Navy of this sub was trained in my naval academy in 1980s. So, this issue of Su-57 and technology transfer rises again. Well, Palki Sharma is correct--India will get all of it, and even more. 

This was always the history. But then again--can the US offer India S-500? Of course, not. The US is still struggling with getting anywhere near shooting down subsonic, forget about supersonic, let alone hypersonic targets. This is NOT to say that the US has nothing to offer, even today American commercial jets, some cars, other technologies are highly valued around the world (often for a good reason), but in military field the US is not even in the strike range of India, deploying 1,000 + km high supersonic Brahmos missiles and getting ready to deploy hypersonic weapons. Can the US provide India with even older Virginia-class SSNs? Of course, not. But ..., but ... Ah, yes, all those other things like energy et al. Do you get my drift? Fork in the road for India. 

About Dubai Air Show.

As you may understand, the contracts signed on such kinds of shows are not really negotiated there--serious contracts for weapons are prepared usually much in advance, sometimes years after long and tedious negotiations. But here is the deal with modern Russian expositions--they present weapon systems which are unrivaled not only "on paper" but in actual combat performance in the REAL (emphasis on "real") war. 

These are not just combat aircraft, but air defense systems which simply dominate modern air defense field. So, a lot of butthurt, as you might expect, to go around in Western "military expert" (a euphemism for fanboys and gamers) field, while in reality, rumor has it, there is a line now for those who want to see Su-57E flying for their air forces, while Russian-made AD systems simply have no competition. Unless one calls blackmailing and arm-twisting by the West's arms dealers and politicians as such. 

Meanwhile, India has a bit of a tough time facing the fork in the road and caving (at least for now) to the US pressure (blackmail) in energy sector. Unlike China who can and does tell Trump to go suck ... I mean pound sand, India is not a genuine superpower and now India's Foreign Minister is in Russia ...

On November 17, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held talks with Minister of External Affairs of the Republic of India Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who is in Moscow to attend a meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of Government. The ministers discussed topical aspects of the bilateral and international agenda with an emphasis on preparations for the annual Russian-Indian summit, which will be held on the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration on Strategic Partnership between the two countries. Due attention was paid to practical steps to further develop trade and economic cooperation, including in the energy and financial spheres, as well as issues of military-technical and logistical cooperation.

Russia will accommodate India in whatever situation she will find herself trying to balance her Western and BRICS interests, but at some point of time India will have to choose between the two, not because of the pressure from Russia and China, but because of the logic of the economic and military circumstances in which combined Wests' circling the drain accelerates tremendously. 

The Chair of the China's State Council (Premier) Li Qiang arrived in Moscow today for SCO meeting.

As some observers noted: 

Premier Li’s trip comes at a pivotal moment. As the global landscape continues to undergo transformation marked by geopolitical uncertainty, sluggish economic recovery, and complex security challenges, the SCO stands out as a key platform for dialogue, collaboration, and regional solidarity. China’s participation, rooted in principles of mutual respect, mutual benefit, and win-win cooperation, reinforces its long-standing role as a stabilizer and growth engine across the vast Eurasian region. For example, SCO meetings serve as important confidence-building measures among member countries. Prime Minister Modi’s attendance at the Tianjin Summit this year could positively reshape China–India relations. Thus, member states can use this useful platform for good neighborhood, good understanding and better ties. Li Qiang’s all engagement and meetings with participants in Moscow may establish more good links with neighboring countries.

I cannot emphasize enough (nor can I list all of them) the scale of the developments within BRICS, especially Russia launching major Uranium and Rare Earth extraction projects in Yakutia, with SCO building a fortress of resources critical for future development and, in fact, cutting off EU from these resources. In my today's video I speak about Alexander Novak's statement on October 15th this year which sounded as the death sentence to EU and should have terrified morons who run it. 

Something Like That ...

 ... because generally it is Modus Operandi of Trump. 

NEW DELHI, Oct 16 – RIA Novosti. The Indian Foreign Ministry did not confirm that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a conversation with US President Donald Trump the day before. "As for the question of whether there was a conversation or a phone call between the Prime Minister Modi and President Trump, I am not aware of any conversation between the two leaders yesterday," the official said Ministry of External Affairs of India Randhir Jaiswal during a briefing. Earlier on Thursday, Trump said that Modi allegedly promised to stop buying oil from Russia.

But then again, all members of BRICS also learned yesterday that they are leaving BRICS. It is a fascinating world Trump lives in, the same as Pentagon and NATO military-political top. Now, although in Russian, yet another proof of why the kill ratio between Russian forces and VSU is astronomically in favor of Russia. This is just ONE OF many demonstrations of how drugged VSU is being mowed down even in the close quarter combat with outnumbered Russian troops. 

I want to stress--there is a truckload of this type of videos. Which also explains this (not the first unit, not the last):

MOSCOW, October 16 - RIA Novosti. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided to disband the 9th separate rifle battalion of the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade, which has lost its combat capability, which is fighting in the Kharkiv direction, RIA Novosti was told in the Russian security forces. "In the course of heavy fighting in Volchansk The 9th Separate Rifle Battalion of the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade completely lost its combat capability. The command staff showed a complete lack of skills in managing (combat control) units. In this regard, the Ukrainian command decided to disband the battalion," the agency's interlocutor said.

I want to reiterate--there is NOT a single NATO officer on high tactical (regiment-brigade) or operational-tactical (division), let alone operational (corps, army), not to speak of strategic level, who has any set of skills, not to speak of experience, for combat control (combat management) of units and formations under REAL war conditions. None. In terms of actual kill ratio--somewhere between 1 to 20 to 1 to 25. 

Russia Never "Admitted" ...

 ... she is openly stating it since 2021. 

The Kremlin has confirmed that it will continue its full-scale invasion of Ukraine throughout autumn in a major blow to Donald Trump’s peace efforts. The US president has repeatedly declared that Russia wants to end the war, even going as far as to tell Emmanuel Macron that Vladimir Putin “wants to make a deal for me” in a bizarre hot mic moment.

Russia "wants" to end SMO AFTER root causes will be addressed. The SMO will continue until all political aims of the operation are met. But yes, Trump does think that Vladimir Putin is simply enamored with him. Nothing could be further from the truth but it is important for Trump to stress how important and irresistible as a man and politician he is. Mind you--he thinks that he can "enamor" a professional intelligence officer with TWO top KGB schools (apart from having an excellent law background), one of which is former KI (Andropov Red Banner Institute), today the Academy of Foreign Intelligence. 

Meanwhile in China:

And not to forget this: 

India IS facing the critical moment for strategic decision on the general path she should take in the nearest future. BRICS and SCO are shaping into the most important global economic, political and military organizations of today and Europe (and the US) in this sense stops being the most important direction of India's foreign policy but merely just another one among many. 

Rumors Flying Around ...

 ... the internet of India's signing the contract for SU-57 and SU-35s may not be just rumors. Especially since they originated in India herself. 

Evidently Rafale didn't perform that well (to put it mildly) during short skirmish between India and Pakistan, nor did Chinese-made Pakistan's AD complexes HQ-9 (knock-offs of S-300)--they failed to intercept supersonic targets, e.g. M=3 Brahmos.  Of course, India has the option to buy F-35 from the US, but enough has been said about this aircraft. But then again, it is India, alright)) But rumors persist and it will be interesting to observe where it all leads to. 

I Would Say, They ...

 ... have to be more circumspect at RT, otherwise their headlines come across as something from titles of porn movies.  

Mineral desire: Moscow has enough to satisfy India

I am not against India's mineral desire (wink, wink) but Moscow is also feminine, so--let the fantasy fly. 

Bad Rap For Rafale.

I cannot verify stated and mocked in this video one way or another, but if true--Rafale may go in its reputation the same way as other French military hardware--utter inability to fight modern war. 

I want to reiterate the point--as SMO has demonstrated, NATO, from Pentagon to Brussels is not capable to plan and conduct combined arms operations. The pivot of all those operations is what is known in Russia as MRAU (Mass Missile Aviation Strike). Without it, all NATO armies, including the US Army, are paper tigers. Already by 1980 the Soviet air defense of the Central Industrial Region could handle MRAU by NATO (not without some damage, obviously), which at that time did have real air forces and missiles. But then again, the generation of NATO officers who had the grasp of COFM is gone today. 

Evidently, I Am In the Mood ...

... for butthurt news today. Or, rather, having fun at and with them, because my BS meter is extremely sensitive. 

India Has a Choice: Russia’s Su-57 or America’s F-35 Fighter?

India will choose F-35, we all know that, but that's not the point. It is the copious amount of BS they continue to spread. Like this, in the same piece:

The Su-57’s top speed of Mach 2.0 is noticeably faster than the F-35, but it is not as stealthy. In a unique display, both the American-made F-35 Lightning II and Russian-made Su-57 were seen together during an air show in India earlier this month. In addition to the Chinese Chengdu J-20 and American F-22 Raptor, these fifth-generation platforms are considered to be the most capable in service today. The presence of both airframes at the Aero India 2025 is significant as tensions continue to ramp up across the globe.

The question which one must ask is--and what is so "unique" in this "display"? Both countries brought their planes to the show. OK, wow. Now, another matter is PLURAL in terms of platforms and considered by who? So, Russians brought combat proven 5th generation aircraft with unrivaled combat record, while the US brought ...

As the second U.S.-made fifth-generation fighter platform, the F-35 is widely considered to be the most formidable of its kind to fly the skies. 

Again, considered by who? What are the criteria of "formidability"? Some BS propaganda about the platform which became a global butt of jokes and is absolutely not fit for real war? F-35 flew a rather boring routine at Aero India 2025 which is a pity, considering the fact that Su-57 stole the show, but that's just that--the show. I am sure when fresh (February 2025) facts on combat readiness are presented:

The F-35 fighter program continues to struggle with meeting test milestones and mission readiness goals, but progress is being made on both fronts, according to the latest report from the Pentagon’s test director and comments from the Joint Program Office and Lockheed Martin. Testing of the F-35’s Technology Refresh-3 software and hardware “remained significantly behind schedule throughout [Fiscal Year] 2024, acting Director of Operational Test and Evaluation Raymond D. O’Toole Jr. said in his organization’s annual report, released in late January. “The F-35 program has shown no improvement in meeting schedule and performance timelines for developing and testing software designed to address deficiencies and add new capabilities,” the report added.

This excruciating for military analysis professionals BS may stop, because in the end, shows are for ... well, shows for hoi polloi, while in particular case of India all those behind closed doors "negotiations" may last forever and will be decided by the scale of bribes, not combat capability of which F-35 has none in real war.    

Some New Info ...

 ... about Russian-Indian contract for anti-shipping missiles. 

Looks like the contract (judging by the picture, which, as Katzmans say--could be just picture), is of 3M54E Kalibr. The contract is for the India's submarines. If it is "E" (Export) version of Kalibr than it will have capped capabilities but considering that Brahmos flies almost to 1,000 km it could be that this version of Kaliber will have extended, not capped by 300 kilometers, range. Russian version of 3M54 has a devilish trick in it--at the terminal its warhead accelerates to M=3 and conducts violent anti-missile maneuver. Will know more about this contract in due time. 

Meanwhile, VSU tried (primarily for PR reasons) the "counteroffensive"--in reality attack, likely recon in force--by means of two battalions in Kursk. Naturally, it ended really badly for those two kamikaze battalions. 

Latest data on "brilliant" operation by NATO in Kursk is: 57,860 KIAs and 337 tanks of VSU destroyed. Washington and London's understanding of the modern warfare is amazing. 

That Will Work Out Well.

 As those sorts of things always do. 

US President Donald Trump has reiterated his threat to impose 100% tariffs against countries of the BRICS bloc, of which India is a part, if they attempt to replace the US dollar with an alternative currency. "The idea that the BRICS countries are trying to move away from the dollar, while we stand by and watch, is OVER," Trump said in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social on Friday. "We are going to require a commitment from these seemingly hostile countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency, nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar or, they will face 100% tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy," he stated.

Yes, about "wonderful economy". If it gets any more wonderfuler, we may slide into the great depression, and somebody has to explain to DJT that the only reason this hasn't happened yet is because big players do not want the whole of global economy going bananas once the US drowns. The foundation of which US Dollar's "exorbitant privilege" rested is not there anymore, least of all its main pillar--the mythology of US military power. India is a soft target, but in the end she a huge Peninsula in the Eurasian landmass southern belly and she has a lot of business within this mass. A lot. But in the end--these are R and C in BRICS who set the example. In the end, currencies are but the derivatives of tangibles which make the world go around. 

Ah No, Not Again(c)

First US on the Moon, then this... 

And now this:

India’s Chandrayaan-3 did not land at or near the south polar region of the Moon, Chinese scientist Ouyang Ziyuan has argued. With China planning to reach the same region next year, the scientific rivalry between Beijing and New Delhi has heated up. Chandrayaan-3 touched down on the Moon on August 23 at a latitude of 69 degrees, which Indian scientists say is within the region of the lunar south pole. “This is wrong,” Ouyang told the Chinese-language Science Times newspaper last week, according to Bloomberg. “The landing site of Chandrayaan-3 is not at the lunar south pole, not in the lunar south pole region, nor is it near the lunar south pole region.” Ouyang argued that while a latitude of 69 degrees on Earth would be well within the Antarctic circle, the Moon’s smaller axial tilt means that its southern polar region spans between 88.5 and 90 degrees. Under Ouyang’s definition, Chandrayaan-3 landed 619 kilometers (385 miles) away from this region.

Here we go again... now India and China, LOL))) 

Recon-Strike Complex.

But first, heartfelt congratulations to India with her magnificent achievement.

India just made spaceflight history in more ways than one. The Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft's Vikram lander has successfully touched down on the Moon, marking the country's first successful landing on the lunar surface. It's just the fourth country to do so after the Soviet Union, US and China. More importantly, it's the first country to land near the Moon's south pole — a difficult target given the rough terrain, but important for attempts to find water ice. Other nations have only landed near the equator.

Truly a proud moment for this nation.  

Now to our sad and earthly matters. I deliberately posted 2 days ago the conversation between Colonel Macgregor and Tucker. First 15-20 minutes of Colonel's remarks are crucial. First, he correctly points out to a horrendous heat signature of all versions of Abrams tanks--Russian satellites can even see them from space--and then he elaborates on modern Russian Recon-Strike Complex without naming it such. In Russian it is known as Разведывательно-Ударный Комплекс (РУК) or, well--Reconnaissance Strike Complex. As Russian military (MoD) defines it:

автоматизированный комплекс вооружения, предназначенный для огневого поражения ударным средствами (ракетными, авиационными) наиболее важных наземных и надводных целей противника немедленно по мере их обнаружения. В РУК входят средства: разведки и наведения, поражения (высокоточное оружие), радиоэлектронного подавления, навигационно-временного обеспечения, управления. В отечественном РУК 60-х гг., предназначавшемся для поражения группировок НК, объединялись информационно-техническими связями ПЛ с противокорабельными ракетными комплексами большой дальности самолёт-разведчик с радиолокационной аппаратурой обнаружения и целеуказания. В последующих поколениях РУК этого вида объединены носители средств поражения (НК и ПЛ) с системой морской космической разведки и целеуказания, которая постоянно ведёт разведку надводной обстановки на акваториях Мирового океана. В США создан РУК ПЛСС (1986) для поражения радиолокационных объектов в полосе шириной и глубиной до 500 км. В его состав входят: 10 самолётов разведки и ретрансляции (дежурная смена - 3 самолёта); наземный центр управления; 12 пунктов наземной радионавигационной сети; до 100 комплексов бортового оборудования для ударных са-молётов и до 500 - для управляемого оружия "воздух - земля" и "земля - земля".

Translation: an automated complex of weapon systems designed to strike the most important enemy ground and surface targets immediately as they are detected by strike means (missile, aviation). The RUK includes the means of: reconnaissance and guidance, destruction (high-precision weapons), electronic suppression, navigation and time support, and control. In the domestic RUK of the 60s, intended to defeat surface ships groupings, submarines were combined with information and technical communications with long-range anti-ship missile systems, reconnaissance aircraft with radar detection and target designation equipment. In subsequent generations of RUKs of this type, carriers of weapons of destruction (Surface Ships and Subs) are combined with a system of marine space reconnaissance and target designation, which constantly conducts reconnaissance of the surface situation in the waters of the World Ocean. In the United States, the RUK PLSS (1986) was created to destroy radar targets in a band up to 500 km wide and deep. It consists of: 10 reconnaissance and relay aircraft (duty shift - 3 aircraft); ground control center; 12 points of the ground radio navigation network; up to 100 sets of on-board equipment for attack aircraft and up to 500 for air-to-ground and ground-to-ground guided weapons.

Of course, this is a very general definition, and for ground warfare Russians use Recon-Fire Complex (ROK) term. The US uses pretty much similar definition and developed its own battlefield ROK such as initial Assault Breaker, which now is being developed into Assault Breaker-2. Here is from 2019.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is researching new long-range smart weapons designed to devastate attacking enemy forces, buying time for the U.S. to send reinforcements in a hypothetical future engagement. The program, known as “Assault Breaker II,” mirrors a Cold War era program designed to stop Soviet armored spearheads poised to roll into Western Europe. The effort would consist of a combination of long-range sensors and bombers loaded with smart weapons designed to seek out and destroy tanks, ships, and other enemy systems.

But here is where the similarity ends. Ever vigilant Lester Grau already in 2018 warned about the way Russians viewed their ROK. Here is how he pointed out Russian artillery use:

Russian military analysts conclude that artillery batteries from direct support artillery battalions and brigade artillery continue to play the most decisive role in the fire destruction of enemy. Further, the role of artillery in contemporary combined arms combat and armed conflicts of varying intensity will only grow. Analysis of limited wars (the Soviet war in Afghanistan, combat in Chechnya, the fighting in Syria) require that new-type artillery tactical formations be capable of:
 conducting highly-maneuverable combat with motorized rifle (and tank) subunits, complete multi-kilometer combined road marches, conduct river crossings, etc;
 inflicting fire destruction of enemy subunits (or targets) throughout the depths of his combat formation;
 destroying enemy targets through direct and indirect fire;
 annihilating tactical precision-guided munitions and other weapons as well as artillery from firing positions and from the march;
 suppressing and destroying command posts and weapons, radar, electronic combat systems and air defense;
 conducting timely and effective defeat of enemy personnel and their weaponry in assembly areas and fighting positions, tanks, command posts and engineer equipment during the preparation for an attack by motorized rifle (or tank) subunits, during
combat in the depth of the enemy defense, during the repulse of the enemy counterattack and during the conduct of the defense;
 conducting counterbattery fire;
 destroying enemy antitank weapons, tanks and other armored vehicles;
 fighting effectively against the approaching enemy reserve and irregular armed elements;
 dispersing within the brigade combat formation while preserving the ability to mass fire in time and space.v

Russian analysis and combat experience shows that the execution of fire destruction missions against an enemy should be assigned directly to the organic brigade artillery without establishing temporary formations such as artillery groups.vi Further, in future fire engagements, artillery systems may be integrated into a unified reconnaissance-fire system (ROC) responsible for conducting zone and point reconnaissance and engaging the just-detected enemy in near-real time. The primary method of executing reconnaissance-fire missions will be to engage newly-discovered enemy targets with brief fire assaults and subsequent changes of position to avoid retaliatory fire. However, it may be possible to conduct multiple fire missions without shifting firing positions when engaged in support of low-intensity conflicts.

Here comes this critical difference which hasn't been known in 2018 yet and which SMO demonstrated so dramatically. It is not just about artillery, however important. Few in 2018 could have foreseen the situation that Russia will outproduce NATO combined in high precision stand-off weapons by the order of magnitude, will deploy an astonishing variety of those weapons, including hypersonic ones and, of course, will demonstrate what modern Air Defense and modern Air Force can do. 

Few also could have predicted that "work time" (rabotnoe vremya) which is the time between detection of the target and launch (salvo) will be reduced into the strategic and operational depth to minutes. Listen to Macgregor in those first 15-20 minutes. At the tactical depth, I quote my friend Marat Khairullin, even battalion commander can see 20-30 kilometers into the enemy depth almost in real time. Hence slaughter of the VSU. At the Rabotino area the kill ratio reaches astonishing 1 to 30. And then, of course, there is ECM and Russia operates drones which are simply impervious to NATO EC(C)M. Hence sheer idiocy from such "advisers" like Dan Rice, or from our beloved clown David Axe. How to explain politely to these (and other) guys that their Iraq and Afghanistan experiences are worthless in real war. 

The Ukrainian air assault force’s 82nd Air Assault Brigade sat out the first nine weeks of Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, which kicked off along several axes in southern and eastern Ukraine on June 4. When the powerful brigade finally rolled into action with some of its 14 British-made Challenger 2 tanks, 40 ex-German Marder tracked infantry fighting vehicles and 90 Stryker wheeled IFVs, it immediately began losing vehicles. This week, the 82nd wrote off at least two of its 20 or so M1132 Engineer Squad Vehicles—mineclearing versions of its 18-ton, eight-wheel Stryker infantry-carriers. The M1132 features a set of hull-mounted minerollers that can detonate buried mines before the vehicle triggers them.

Aw, poor-poor dears! They still think that changing "tactics" can change the outcome. Obviously, explaining to Dan Rice or David Axe what Soviet/Russian attitude towards own TOE, ISR and the role of cadre officers with very strong military education means may fall on deaf ears--they still continue to reside in their Gulf War delusion. But I can only help with quoting yet again Lieutenant-General Klokotov, Chief of the Strategy Department of the Academy of General Staff in 1992:

“I would like to emphasize here that the Persian Gulf war was taken as the standard in studying the strategic nature of possible war. It would appear that this position, adopted in the draft ‘Fundamentals of Russian Military Doctrine,’ is dangerous. The fact is that this war [was] ‘strange’ in all respects [and] cannot serve as a standard.”  

They simply believed that they could match such experiences as ended today 80 years ago Kursk Battle. They cannot. That is why they rewrite history. And even that they do unprofessionally.

About India.

One of those rare moments when I generally agree with Valdai boys. So, the vector, the thrust of Makarevich's piece is generally correct. 

However, in recent decades, political challenges have been added to the economic challenges of the especially privileged strategic partnership between Russia and India: Moscow, in particular, is concerned about the rapid uptick in relations between Washington and New Delhi. The comprehensive global strategic partnership between India and the US is a logical outcome of the evolution of Indian politics since the 1990s. At the time, the government of Prime Minister Narasimha Rao began a gradual process of economic liberalisation. The country was to become an attractive target for foreign investment, since there was not enough financial capital domestically. The ‘opening up’ of the Indian economy to foreign investors has continued under his successor Narendra Modi – with the ‘Make in India’ initiative inviting foreign manufacturers to locate their production facilities in the South Asian country. A kind of continuation of the this has been the ‘Self-sufficient India’ (Aatmnitbhar Bharat) programme. On the one hand, it is aimed at achieving technological sovereignty, and on the other, it forces foreign manufacturers to localise their production.

But this argument suffers from what is the same problem which is common for the most "observers" and "researchers" in the field of modern geopolitics--discounting power element and the dynamics of the combined West's decline. This is forgivable for all those good ol' boys and girls from largely abstract and shaped by Western influence in study of economics Russia's "academic" circles, due to their lack of understanding of modern West which never goes beyond platitudes and fictional economic data. Yes, India is trying to get "investment" , but this "investment" is already drying up with the center of economic development, finances and technological advancement inexorably moving to the Eastern Eurasia. 

What Makarevich forgets, of course, is the fact that practically whole military establishment of India is influenced to a different degree by Soviet/Russian military views not to mention vast quantities of Russian military hardware. This matters greatly as is the fact of undeniable Russian-Chinese growth closer along military lines. As SMO has demonstrated, the impact on NATO military reputation is devastating--this fact escaped Makarevich and was inevitable, since I am on record--there is no business for people like him, or Karaganov, or anyone from Valdai who do not have serious professional military-intelligence background even trying to factor this issue in their "research". But it MUST be factored, including the fact of India observing the growth of Russian-Chinese military cooperation and, rather very impressive, growth of mutual trade. 

Of course, India has her own, often very divergent from that of Russia, interests to pursue, but with SMO in progress and a manifest inability of West to maintain the edifice of economic prosperity, order and power, we shouldn't expect dramatic shifts in the balance of power in the Indian Ocean because a lot of it rests not just on "investments" but on the ability to maintain military capability worthy of regional superpower. With the US, West in general, as a supplier of such capability it is impossible. But that is the issue for military professionals to discuss. The fact that I still cannot find REAL academic background of this Makarevich guy, except that he is in RAS and is young, tells you a lot.  I will not go into the issue of a major clusterfuck with India buying (in reality--money laundering) French Rafales, but majority of India's AF, Navy and Ground Forces are Russia-made and in geopolitics the only thing which matters is a raw power. In the end, India never caved in to US demands and signed $5 billion contract for S-400. 

Obviously, Makarevich also doesn't understand what this picture means:

As well as why India cannot let go of this: 

But it will take too much time to explain the meaning of all that to Makarevich and what it means in the larger scheme of things, but he will do himself a lot of good by studying details of Operation Trident. Will India become the first recipient of S-500? Questions, questions.