Showing posts with label competition. Show all posts
Showing posts with label competition. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

So, No Flying Air Canada For Me.

I do identify myself as a man (that is a Gentleman) and my wife as a woman (that is a Lady--she is a real deal, unlike me being a Gentleman), so Air Canada for us becomes problematic: 
Aw, isn't it lovely? So progressive and so...fabulous.
Earlier this year, US airlines represented by the Airlines for America trade group — including American, United, and Southwest — announced that they would add an "X" option for non-binary passengers on their boarding passes from June 2019. In March, United Airlines also became the first in the US to launch non-binary gender options for customers booking flights — it now offers the gender-neutral title "Mx" alongside "Mr" and "Ms."
So, I guess, airlines will offer an appropriate rigorous training for their "valued" employees because, as we all know, respecting "non-binary" citizenry is one of the most important tasks flight-crews must solve. In related news:
Boeing stock seesawed Monday after the board stripped CEO Dennis Muilenburg of his chairman position late Friday, as the aerospace giant tries to get the Boeing (BA) 737 Max back in service. The board said the decision would allow Muilenburg to "focus full time on running the company," according to the release. The Boeing 737 Max was grounded in March following a second crash. The crashes killed a total of 346 people. "I am fully supportive of the board's action. Our entire team is laser-focused on returning the 737 Max safely to service and delivering on the full breadth of our company's commitments," Muilenburg said in the release. Blackstone (BX) Senior Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Operations David Calhoun, who has been on Boeing's board since 2009, will serve as non-executive chairman. Prior to joining Blackstone, Calhoun worked at General Electric (GE) and was head of its aircraft engine division. The move comes as the return to service of the 737 Max keeps getting pushed back, weighing on Boeing stock. While Muilenburg has predicted it will start flying again in early Q4, which started this month, airlines have repeatedly delayed their timelines. Last week, 737 Max customers American Airlines (AAL) and United Airlines (UAL) removed the plane from their schedules through early to mid-January, following a similar move from Southwest (LUV).
Oh, that oughta solve all Boeing's problems (sarc). Especially when the guy who helped to run GE and Caterpillar (and Boeing) to incredible successes (you know--stock prices), evidently, has an accounting background from Virginia Tech. He even wrote a book on how to become really, really successful. Like really, really successful, especially when running a market research firm and then transferring those relevant (sarc) skills into aerospace industry with all this industry's Quality Management Systems, Quality Assurance procedures, metrology, engineering, specifications and instructions, testing of the materials and systems--you know, all those things they "teach" in the classes on "how to win". Indeed, what can possibly go wrong? After all, Mr. Calhoun should write a second volume of his book on "how companies win" where he will expand on the incredibly "successful" B-737 Max and how he, yes, personally, supervised Boeing's clumsy response, which, together with him personally pushing for B-737 Max, ensured absolutely that Boeing "will win". And it continues to win ever since two B-737 Max crushed killing 300+ people despite the fact that American pilots (forget those "others") warned about issues with the plane on many occasions prior to those tragedies. Hey, what do those pilots know? Same goes to Boeing's B-767 based refueling aircraft. Shareholders were happy and that is the only thing that matters, right? I hope they will arrive, eventually, to the right conclusions at Boeing to address the situation. I am all for real competition in this field, which, as we may learn from this all--exposes weaknesses immediately. I am against any monopoly in this field. In aerospace it is not a good idea.  

In general, one is forced, at this stage, viewing this avalanche of not very inspiring (to put it mildly) news from US real economy, reflect on the way true competence and, once legendary, American engineering prowess is being completely diluted with financialization of the whole economy into oblivion, where the only measure of quality becomes, such as a cancerous political correctness and institutionalization of mental abnormality in social life, in it being completely false,  an economic equivalency of "bottom line" and stock pricing. It is the road to hell.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

An Interesting Coincidence?

It is a very peculiar coincidence. First, Yahoo publishes this:
That the U.S. and EU bolster their respective aerospace giants is a basic fact of the industry at this point. Yet the firms’ fierce rivalry and the enormous market share at stake means the U.S. and EU have challenged the other’s state-sponsored support—It’s fundamentally unfair! It’s market-distorting!—for well over a decade. Both sides’ claims have been at least partially upheld by the World Trade Organization, and those victories mean that each has the opportunity to hammer the other with tariffs. In other words: it’s payback time. But as the U.S. and EU trade threats on behalf of their industrial champions, an upstart aerospace firm could pose a threat to Boeing and Airbus’s long-term lock on the market. And it’s not wasting time worrying about subsidies; in fact, it’s welcoming state aid from an enthusiastic booster: China.
Of course down the article Yahoo makes a distinction: 
In fact, France has warned against any escalation of the trans-Atlantic subsidies argument, with Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire saying last week that it could “play into the hands” of a potentially significant competitor to both companies: the Commercial Aircraft Corp of China, or Comac. Comac, in partnership with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp, recently unveiled proposals for a long-haul widebody jet. It is already selling smaller models to Chinese carriers such as Chengdu Airlines, and trying to target some emerging markets such as Ghana with those regional planes. And all with the Chinese government’s support.

I have news for France's Finance Minister, who, obviously, having degree in literature from Sorbonne, before enrolling into Government Administration program, may not know it, but there are few very, how to put it politely, noticeable issues with this statement. Good that at least UAC and Russia were mentioned there. COMAC-919 is being created as primarily internal Chinese commercial aviation market filler for the nearest (10-30 years) future. COMAC-919 which still continues to have issues, is an outdated design and, apart from being a thoroughly "Western" aircraft it doesn't have...drum roll... indigenous competitive engine. It is simply not there, apart from few demonstrators which are not in the production and God knows when will be. 

And here is a Russian "coincidence: in Vzglyad with a telling title:

Китай ждет помощи от России в области авиации (China expects help from Russia in aviation field). 

Here is in English. 

Enter life-giving US sanctions on Russia. Only totally delusional people will continue to believe BS of sanctions in military and aerospace field against Russia as having something to do with politics--BS. It is all about Boeing and American Military-Industrial Complex. After all, none other than Russia's PM Dmitry Medvedev (whose role I am in the process of reassessing in a very positive direction now, after some new facts) today already reported Russia's military contracts portfolio worth $54.5 billion. Thankfully, by imposing sanction, such as those on composites by Hexcell, US, thinking that they damage MC-21 program, merely accelerated and to a breakneck speed localization of this aircraft, which will be a direct, unlike is the case of COMAC-919, competitor to both A-320neo and whatever the ill-fated B-737Max 8 will become.   

But that is the whole point, for the first time in history China was invited to become a co-organizer of the famed MAKS air exhibition, MAKS-2019. It will be at this massive salon that China will feature own progress but also the mock-up of  CR-929, Russian-Chinese wide-body airliner--the actual article, which together with MC-21 is honed to break up Boeing-Airbus duopoly. Behind all that one can see the shadow of not only majority of Russian home-made systems ranging from APU to avionics, and composites, which are already part of the newly constructed MC-21s, but of PD-14 engine which already received the certificate of type, while Russian-made APU received certificate from EASA. Russia ALREADY has certified PD-14 and the logical next step of PD-35 for wide-bodied intercontinental CR-929 and, wait a minute, IL-96, is being taken as I type this.

In the end, it is about more than just Boeing-Airbus saga, it is about those shady Russkies, hiding behind the tree in the ambush and waiting for their chance. So, let me reiterate--no own engine, no great aviation power. COMAC-919 will be powered undeniably by P&W or CFM. PD-14 is competitive and it already flies and is being produced, actually. Chinese AJ-1000A, will see. But in any case, Russia's return to commercial aircraft market will be noticed. Hell, it is already noticed, hence US sanctions--sanctity of Boeing, especially after this gigantic FUBAR with B-737 Max 8, must be well-guarded. Make no mistake, I am not sarcastic here, when I type this. The duopoly will be broken one way or another and behind it, apart from obvious advanced avionics, materials and design, all of which Russia has, is a massive Soviet/Russian school of engine manufacturing which was and is behind some of the most outstanding military aircraft in history. This experience is a key--that is why China paid billions to get her hands on Russian version of SU-35, that is why Egypt wants it, Indonesia signed the contract for 11 of them and that is why United States slaps economic sanctions on anything Russian--because it is too damn good and competitive. So simple, really.  

As per MAKS-2019. That is going to be a treat for aerospace obsessed and an eye candy. It always is.       

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

It Is The Devil You Know.

I wanted to post it a week ago, when it just came out but I got overwhelmed with work. Now is as good of a time as any. Listen attentively to what Putin has to say at 5:55 at Russia's Energy Week summit. The whole piece is worthy of attention but what Putin says about sanctions is massively important in a grand-strategy framework:


Fact is, for a leader of a nation to state that it is preferable to be under the most severe simultaneous actions, since it unties the hands, is a wowser of a statement and it gives some insight into Russia's political and economic kitchen. Well, this plus Putin speaking in the beginning (from 2:00) about failing to comprehend why the United States destroys the US Dollar. I too, to be frank, fail to understand from a basic rational position why the US works so hard to finish off the last vestige of its power--the trust in US Dollar. But that is if one uses basic principles of rationality. But, of course, Putin does know why and I, at the risk of sounding as an arrogant a-hole, also have an idea. Obviously not as comprehensive of an idea as Putin has (after all--he has one of the best, if not the best, intelligence-analytical apparatuses in the world working for him), but an idea nonetheless.    

Only sublime people (or morons) would deny that today we face a gigantic geopolitical shift and global turbulence--all that, the resulting effect of an implosion of a liberal capitalism (aka globalism) which has no national and cultural attachment other than to itself and to the process of making money, while increasingly failing to deliver an actual value. Indeed, consumerism ran into the most horrifying (for shareholders) financial wall--it reached consumer plateau. People, some people, either "overate" in developed countries or will never be able to afford standard of living so well "presented" in commercials--it does not work like this anymore and the American Dream is, frankly, dead. It was dead for sometime. I know, I remember America of 1990s and I can compare. The contrast is startling and not for good reasons. Fact is, I have all reasons to suspect that the situation is even grimmer than it is being reported.

So, is there any chance that America will improve? Some think so, by applying the very same methods that are in the foundation of collapse of liberalism. One of them is, in Russian-American case, the fight with competition for the markets by means of sanctions against Russia. This is not to mention a rabid Russophobia of Western elites, which helps them commit irrational and suicidal acts. One of those suicidal acts is precisely squandering of own reputation as business entity worthy of trust. All that is in the past for the US and the same is approaching US Dollar.

Consider $5.43 billion Russian-Indian contract for S-400s. Let us be frank here and I understand that it may sound harsh but in simple language the US has nothing comparable to S-400. Not even close. In other words--US wants India as US own market but has nothing competitive to offer.  So, what does it do? US does "convincing" (well, blackmailing) of other nations to not buy Russian weapons. It is pretty much the same situation as to offer a car buyer with $40, 000 budget a brand new top of the line Toyota or used Tesla with broken batteries. It is kinda obvious what normal rational people would choose. The same goes for Russian-Indian other aerospace projects and technology transfers. Absolutely the same situation is with energy supply with US being in a constant bipolar state threatening and then recanting, then threatening again and recanting yet again, to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2. Any companies which want to cooperate with Russia on extraction are under the threat of sanctions. Good for Russia, since she was able to substitute key imports in hi-tech extracting and gas liquefaction equipment with Russian-made equally good analogues. 

So, not only Russia remains immensely competitive on gas market, she continues to supply the US with LNG. Thus the question: are they that dumb in D.C. that they do not understand that sanctioning half-of-the-world left and right they exhibit not US power but ultimate weakness to compete and doing so destroy reputation of US (well, it has been destroyed) as a reliable partner? With Russia in particular, the US is not competitive anymore across the whole spectrum of crucial military (and not only) technologies. In some, US simply has nothing, zero, to offer--such as non-nuclear submarines, cutting edge missile technologies and it increasingly falls behind in combat aviation. Now comes this MC-21 "thingy". 

One of the massive fields in which the United States remains highly competitive and a global leader is commercial aviation. I do like Boeing commercial aircraft, I will be missing a beauty and a queen of the skies B-747 once it is removed from the passenger service, I recall warmly B-727 and I have no problems with taking ever-reliable B-777 over Atlantic. In other words, I am a fan and admirer of the American (primarily Boeing) commercial aviation. But the juiciest part of Boeing's commercial contracts is medium range B-737 and it is precisely this segment where main money to be made. Now get this: Boeing fights with Airbus (with its A-320 series) for this immense market. Russia is not Boeing's significant market but Russian carriers surely bought many B-737s. Enough to take a look at Aeroflot fleet--42 B-737s, fewer than A-320-1, but still. But the rightmost column of Aeroflot shows 50 of Sukhoi Super Jet 100s which increasingly begin to fly (there are other carriers operating them) routes which used to be serviced by Boeing and Airbus mid-range aircraft. Here is Russian carrier Azimuth flying its SSJ -100 from St. Petersburg to Krasnodar. So, the shorter mid-range routes in Russia already see SSJ-100s substituting Western mid-range aircraft (B-737, A-320+1). Now imagine what happens when MC-21, especially with Russian PD-14 engine makes it to market? Yes, the removal of B-737s and A-320s will start in earnest. 

MC-21 is enormously competitive and it is significantly cheaper that either B-737 or A-320. So, the Russian state will have to do very little convincing of Russian carriers to buy MC-21. In fact, Russian commercial aviation is in full anticipation of this aircraft which was created specifically for this purpose--to compete with Western mid-range commercial aircraft and, eventually, come out on the global market. 


This video gives a pretty good feel about advantages of MC-21 over its direct B-737 Max competitor. It is very clear that MC-21 will have home field advantage in Russia, but MC-21's potential global appeal where the real danger to Boeing and Airbus monopoly is. How? Very simple: start from Iran and then, even despite own COMAC-919 (very slow and troubled development) there will be takers (possibly) in China and even in Europe. After all, nobody took SSJ-100 seriously too, initially. Now this aircraft flies in Europe and Mexico and people love it.


MC-21 is a much more serious competitor for a much bigger market segment and latest sanctions on Russian companies involved in MC-21 program are just a first salvo. But at this point, one has to understand why Putin wishes all sanctions, all of them severe, now. Russia, it seems, has already found or is very close to an economic model which works and this one has nothing in common with liberal capitalism. This model has no title yet but it is clearly some kind of fusion between state capitalism, socialism and free enterprise and it will be very interesting to see how this model will evolve. But all seems to point to the fact that it is already largely in place. After all, Russia openly proclaimed she will become number one arms supplier in the world and this, ladies and gentlemen, is as high tech and cutting edge as it comes. Ah, yes--dedolarization is in full swing, while President Trump threatens (in Russian--fresh) India and Russia. Evidently they have no idea of effects of a quicksand in D.C. For some odd reason this comes to mind:


To Be Continued...

Friday, October 5, 2018

As Was Expected.

India and Russia on Friday formally sealed the USD 5 billion S-400 air defence system deal and signed eight pacts at the annual bilateral summit in New Delhi even as the US gave a guarded response over the development. The signing of defence deal between India and Russia may invite US sanctions. However, in a guarded statement, the US embassy in New Delhi said that its intent to slap sanctions against Russia was not aimed at imposing damage to the military capabilities of its “allies or partners”, PTI reported.  The US reaction came shortly after India concluded a deal for purchase of S-400 missile defence system from Russia. After wide-ranging talks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday signed the defence deal despite the US warning. Both the sides also talked about taking “decisive” action without “double standards” to tackle the menace of terrorism. 

The actual number (sum) of S-400 contract is quite a bit more (in Russian) but no matter--one way or another, the Russian Air Defense complex with the moniker "Triumph" is definitely triumphant both as a weapon system and as a hi tech commercial item. Of course, expect now all kinds of media military "experts" pretend that they know what it all means and how this means nothing but the truth is simple: Russia gets to keep her clients and she gets them all over Eurasia. Eight other major agreements, ranging from shipbuilding to space, have been signed between Russia and India and, something tells me (wink, wink) that the project for India's fifth generation fighter is far from dead. And, of course (rumors are already in the air) T-14 Armata is supposed to be also on a shopping list...somewhere. All in all, productive summit and, I am sure, new sanctions will follow if not now, then later. It is all about business, folks. 

Now, one is forced to ask a question--what future holds for arms trade. I already know at least partial answer to this. Russians when promising to become number one in arms sales are not bluffing, nor US is slapping sanctions on Russia left and right non-stop just because US elites are viscerally Russo-phobic, which they are, but that is not the only factor. The competition in real hi-tech markets--aerospace, weapons, energy extraction, just to name a few--is heating up. And while Wall Street is busy pretending that Walgreen's or Amazon really matter, the actual and reliable indicator of economic development is good ol' military and actual capabilities it generates. This explains well why the US slapped recently sanctions on Russian companies which are involved in MC-21 manufacturing, such as AeroComposite. US will try to sabotage MC-21 getting anywhere near international market, especially with PD-14 engine. One of the ways to do so is to slap the breaks on, as one of the desperate measures, sale of MC-21 with Honeywell avionics. Sure. The problem, of course, in this approach (for Honeywell) is that the nation (Russia) which produces 100% domestic avionics for SU-35C or SU-57, which makes any commercial aircraft avionics look tame compared to military one, will have no (in fact it is NOT having) problems with fully domestic substitutes which are already available for MC-21. So, who loses? The answer is self-evident. But about this later.  

Meanwhile Russian evilness and monstrosity have no limits, now Russians are guilty of creating a deficit of.... chocolate. The depth of Russian depravity is literally--limitless.        

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Funny START.

And here we go again. As I stated before, Russia is not going to discuss ANY of Russia's new weapon systems within extension of the START III (New START) treaty between the USA and Russia. Simple as that, in fact--absolute no-brainer. All those negotiations are merely exercises in semantic futility since, as Vice Chairman of Defense and Security Committee of Federation Council Evgeny Serebrennikov pointed out today (in Russian):


He also (tongue in cheek?) expressed hope that maybe American side will accept Russian arguments on this issue. Of course, the United States will not do so under any circumstances. Everybody knows it and it all becomes just the matter of posturing. Ironically, Russia can easily prove Sarmat to be not covered by START since Sarmat can carry hyper-sonic gliders, which are conventional (that is non-nuclear) weapons with a truly strategic impact. But then again, the whole plethora of brand-new Russian weapons was designed from the outset as a dual, nuclear and non-nuclear, capability. 

What will the US do to apply pressure? It is obvious--it will place some weapons, from INF-abrogating ballistics to ABM systems into the territory of its lap-dogs such as Baltic states and more of the same into Romania. After all, as General Hyten stated a week ago:
Well, yes--I understand John Hyten's sentiment but this is not how competition between peers works. Especially, I underscore that, between Russia and the US. Only retards or completely sublime people believe anymore in America's "good intentions" and "friendship"--Russians know all too well what does it mean. So, in this case Russia will survive the status of America's "not-friend" but will continue to develop and increase its lead in new weapon systems in order to prevent some hot heads in Washington from exercising all kinds of nutty ideas. Well, one of these ideas is so stale and so unimaginative (lack of imagination is a defining feature of current American exceptionalist view of herself) that now it creates only boredom among real experts.

The United States wants to repeat Cold War 1.0 in which it concluded (wrongly) the Soviet Union bankrupted itself in the arms race with the US. Reality, of course, was very different but it is difficult to explain to people who write doctrines for Washington establishment (Deep State, BORG, whatever one wants to call it) that they have to take a reality pill and start assessing United States' REAL standing in terms of power competition in the military-technological field. I am not going to wax Clanciesque here but the simple truth is that any American move on confronting Russia militarily already has a response which nullifies any attempts. Obviously, once the US violates INF Treaty (it will) the flight time of ballistics launched from the Baltic States against targets in Russia will be very short. This, most likely, will necessitate a deployment of S-500 AD complexes in appropriate sectors, including Kaliningrad, this is not to speak of the immediate measures against US proper, not just Europe, with conventional "calming" strike on equally significant non-civilian object. But that is the reality which Deep State still can not face--only those who have a decisive conventional superiority control escalation to the nuclear threshold. I have some news for "exceptionalists" and neocons--it is Russia. But I am sure, at least some of them know that--that is why they are so desperate and hysterical.   

So, the Cold War 2.0 is on and it will only escalate, with economic pressure and sabotage against Russia only increasing but, as old Heraclitus wisdom states, one cannot step into the same river twice. Russia learned a hard lesson with the combined West in the words of Putin:
Russia learned her lessons, will the US?