Parallels, Analogies Etc.

I wrote about this extensively when quoting a brilliant article by Irina Alksnis a couple of years ago. Recall this: 

However, to hear this simple advice--not to mention  following it--the United States need to stop, at least for an instance, and silence themselves. To stop shaking air with statements, declarations, demands, and threats, which come across as either strange, or outright silly because of their obvious inability to ever become a reality. But it is precisely, it seems, what the US is not capable of doing. As a result--the continuation of never-ending declaratory carousel: Moscow, Assad must go! Russians, we will provide for freedom of navigation in Kerch Strait! Russians, we will punish you for support of Maduro. But the most insulting for Americans is that only Russia can understand them. Because we remember the pain behind those words. 

As you may know, I hate historical parallels--most of them lack necessary depth and context. Yet, Vladimir Putin yesterday drew a direct MO parallel between Soviet Union and the United States. 

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said the United States was wrong to think that it is "powerful enough" to get away with threatening other countries, a mistake, he said, that led to the downfall of the former Soviet Union.  Putin made the comments during a press briefing late on Friday as he spoke about U.S. sanctions against Moscow, according to Russia's news agency TASS. "We hear threats from the Congress, from other sources. It is all done within the context of the United States' domestic political process," Putin was quoted as saying. "The people who do this, they probably assume that the United States has such economic, military and political might that it can get away with that. It is no big deal, that is what they think." Putin said such behaviour reminded him of the Soviet Union. "The problem with empires is that they think they are powerful enough to make some mistakes. We will buy these (people), bully them, make a deal with them, give necklaces to them, threaten them with battleships. And this will solve all the problems. But problems accumulate. A moment comes when they cannot be solved anymore."

This moment has come already in 2014 and since then, as you all know, things were not going that well for the United States, especially in the field in which the United States proclaimed itself "the finest fighting force in the history of the world".  Why the United States arrived to this conclusion is the question I am trying to answer in my books and this blog for 7 years now. But Putin is correct insofar as pointing out great, if not gross, limitations of the American power, which, for starters, as any power, is not static and undergoes transformation non-stop. This Putin's statement, as well as his dramatic "we are not obliged to feed everyone" (in Russian),

and a very satisfied expression on Gerhard Schroder's face (starting at 1:42) are good indicators of Russia's position for the upcoming summit in Geneva and it is a very bad news for Ukraine. Well, this plus the fact that the first stage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is completed. That amounts, actually, to Ukraine's worst nightmare because Russia, indeed, doesn't want to support Ukraine economically in anyway and the main issue today is WHO will pay for Ukraine's mess. Certainly not Russia. US' feeble attempts to convince Germany to allow Ukraine to be a party of US-German negotiations on NS2 is just a political circus, because nobody wants this shithole of a country on their balance. The United States obviously wants to continue to use Ukraine as a ram against Russia, but...but...but one has to have at least some bang for a buck and in Ukraine this is simply not possible, because it is against Russia, not Iraq.

The sooner all those ignoramuses in the State Department, especially its Russia "section", headed by Kagan's cabal, understand that, the better it will be for the United States which is in no position to press Russia through Ukraine, because if pushed too far, Russia will react and that will make the United States look very weak. Well, that is the main reason for the American side stalking Russians trying to obtain the agreement on holding the summit. While I do not agree with recent events around Ukraine being compared to Cuban Missile Crisis, there was no doubt that the only option the United States had if Russia would "deal" with Ukraine was to escalate to nuclear threshold in desperate attempts to mitigate enormous political and reputational losses the United States would incur after Russia would annihilate both VSU and current Ukrainian statehood. Even ignorant and possessed neocons in D.C. understand that and want to live. The upcoming summit will be primarily about that--somebody in D.C. got the message and got scared. 

I still cannot wrap my brain around the whole proceedings in Geneva in terms of how Putin would communicate with Biden, but it is what it is, so I don't really care. As long as US exceptionalists begin to understand that they are not that exceptional--good, we all may avoid a major war and it is all for the better. Putin, obviously, knows the present state of the United States and the talk we hear from Moscow today indicates that Russia is absolutely confident and means what she states. As long as the United States will not do stupid things in Ukraine, like trying to "rebuild" Ukrainian Army--a dubious proposition in a better times for the US, forget about now--things should be fine and Europe will get its gas, thus giving Germany a small fighting economic chance before Bundestag will get filled with woke globalist shills from the Green Party whose main objective is to turn already badly mauled Germany into the third world shithole. But that is a strictly internal German affair--people deserve the government they elect. In this sense, Putin drawing parallels with the Soviet Union are not incorrect and as I wrote recently, the United States simply reached limits, which cannot be pushed anymore. It is a completely new paradigm.

Pepe Escobar's Review And Other Points Of Interest.

Pepe wrote a wonderful review of my latest book for Asia Times, and I am deeply thankful to Pepe for his wonderful writing and being my de facto friend. Distant, for now. You can read the whole thing at The Saker's blog or Unz Review. Here is Pepe in his own words. 

Here, Martyanov, in meticulous detail, analyzes the imperial decline thematically – with chapters on Consumption, Geoeconomics, Energy, Losing the Arms Race, among others, composing a devastating indictment especially of toxic D.C. lobbies and the prevailing political mediocrity across the Beltway. What is laid bare for the reader is the complex interplay of forces that are driving the political, ideological, economic, cultural and military American chaos.

The book, evidently, is doing well, all things considered, and if it contributes to "righting", however feeble this hope seems now, the United States in any way, so it is all for the better. Meanwhile, Biden Admin is literally chasing Russians trying to arrange the summit. Russia waits and doesn't commit because knows that there is very little to negotiate and, finally, Ria publishes today an analytical piece by Pyotr Akopov with symptomatic title: Russia Needs a Predictable Confrontation With the USA. Kinda speaks volumes, doesn't it? Here is an excerpt:

Предсказуемой и стабильной может быть и конфронтация. Но она и так уже идет и точно не закончится ни с каким саммитом — так что можно попробовать поставить ее в определенные рамки и сочетать с разумными компромиссами там, где это отвечает интересам обеих сторон. Для этого действительно нужно разобрать часть завалов на пути двухсторонних отношений — и тут все понимают, что "заваливали" в основном американцы, а разбирать придется вместе.

Translation:  Even confrontation could be predictable and stable. The confrontation is ongoing and surely will not stop after any summit--but at least some effort could be made to put it into some defined framework which allows for reasonable compromises where they satisfy the interests of both sides. For that, certain logjams should be removed on the path of mutual relations--everyone understands that the "jamming" was done primarily by Americans whole removing those logjams will be a job for both.  

Akopov doesn't see many positives in all this hustle around summit and he, justifiably, is not optimistic about American elites who are lost in both international and domestic policies and are totally inadequate to the challenges global tectonic shift in power balance represents. As I say it all the time--they are one trick ponies. Just to illustrate to you  how bad things are, let's take a short walk down the memory lane. It is June of 2015 and popular US geopolitical tabloid The National Interest (I know, I know...LOL) publishes this: 

American Hegemony Is Here to Stay. U.S. hegemony is now as firm as or firmer than it has ever been, and will remain so for a long time to come.

The guy who wrote this 6 years ago is Salvatore Babones, he is an associate professor of sociology and social policy at the University of Sydney and an associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies. I am positive he still teaches... somewhere. Can you imagine WHAT kind of "expertise" this guy procures and what kind of views he holds? Here is his other "prediction" from 2017. 

Globalism Lives. China Won’t Overtake America Any Time Soon

He, Babones, is one of many who do "research" which produces no value whatsoever and thus he arrives, in 2017 no less, to this:

What is America? The world recoils when U.S. President Donald Trump says “America first,” but nothing should be more natural than a president putting his country first. The problem with “America first” is that for many people around the world, America is not just a country. The United States is a country. America is something more—not only the most powerful state, but the cultural, economic, and institutional center of a world that it has partially recreated in its own image. The West does not have a good word to describe America in this expanded sense because the modern West has never seen something like it before. The last time a whole world was so organized around a single, central state was in the fifteenth century, when East Asia was centered on Ming-dynasty China. China at the time wasn’t just the leader or regional hegemon; it was the central state of a political and cultural realm that stretched from Burma to Japan. And the word that came to describe this world was tianxia. 

Even a broken clock is right twice a day but one MUST ask the question on a validity of such opinions which are presented under the titles of "expertise" and being advanced as "scientific". And here is the point--the drama and the tragedy of the outside observer when writing on a contemporary American geopolitics is in the fact that out of a huge volume of alleged American geopolitical "scholarship" vast majority of it are fantasies or contrived concepts one is subjected to in order to form one's opinion about them. Most of them never pan out and fail in the relatively easy task of setting up a realistic framework, forget about giving weighted and probable forecasts. This trait defines modern American geopolitical thought, top-bottom, and there is no way it is going to change any time soon--the rut of American exceptionalism and the rot of the US academe are such that Babones is not an exception, he is the rule. That is why Akopov, in essence, repeats the thesis I advanced now for many years, including in this blog:

Поэтому никаких иллюзий насчет диалога с Вашингтоном в Москве не существует — то есть речь даже не о возможности о чем-либо договориться, а просто о способности вести диалог, спорить и слушать аргументы друг друга. И дело тут не в личности Байдена — хотя у Путина есть негативный опыт общения с ним — или его команды. Проблема куда шире: в настроениях пребывающей в кризисе американской элиты.  

Translation: That is why Moscow has no illusions about the dialogue with Washington--at issue is not even the possibility to settle anything but at least about ability to conduct dialogue, argue and listen to the arguments of each-other. The problem here is not with Biden's personality--albeit Putin has a negative experience of communicating with him--or Biden's team. The problem is much larger--in the moods of the American elite engulfed in crisis. 

You want to see what kind of crisis it is? Read Salvatore Babones, you will get a feel. 

A Superb Dedication To Gagarin...

From Whiskey and Gunpowder. A must read tribute by great American mind to Yuri Gagarin and the first step for humanity into space.  

                       The First Starman

Today, we’ll discuss something that happened 60 years ago — April 1961 — that changed the world; indeed, it changed the world and outer space beyond. We still live with the impact of this event.

In related news, Biden calls "killer Putin" and offers to hold a summit to discuss you know...that thing(c), whatever that is. Putin should be very cautious when meeting good ol' (literally) Joe, since if Biden, God forbids, dies, Putin will be blamed because he is, you know, a killer.

WASHINGTON/MOSCOW (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden called on Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to reduce tensions stirred by a Russian military build-up on Ukraine's border and proposed a summit of the estranged leaders to tackle a raft of disputes. The White House and the Kremlin reported only the second conversation between the two since Biden took office in January, after Western officials urged Moscow to end the build-up and Russia, in words recalling the Cold War, said its "adversary" should keep U.S. warships well away from the Crimea region.

I mean, it is a good development, no doubt about it, it is better to talk than fight, plus Russia is really leaving West for good, after Lavrov's confirmation in his interview to Iranian IRNA yesterday (in Russian) that Russia basically is ready to discard Western pay systems such as Visa and Mastercard and, of course, insulating Russia from other sanction risks from the US and EU. Obviously, the course on the dedollarization was also reiterated. Now Biden, or rather those who control him, suddenly want "stable and predictable relations with Russia". Dudes, supporting a Nazi shithole like Ukraine and calling the President of a superpower "a killer" is a very wrong way of going about it. Again, Russia's departure from the West cannot be stopped any more and for that US "diplomacy" and "intelligence", or whatever passes in the US for these, otherwise respectable and real professionals'-oriented, occupations are responsible together with a cesspool of lowlifes known in the US as main stream media. You get what you paid for, folks.

Stephen Cohen Makes Mistake(s).

I do follow Stephen Cohen's thoughts on international relations in general, and Russian-American relations in particular, but while having respect for his courageous and honest position on the subject, it doesn't mean that I agree on everything with him. His latest piece in The Nation with the title Will US Elites Give Détente With Russia a Chance? is not exactly an exercise in precision forecasting. To start with the question in the title, the answer is extremely simple: Absolutely NOT. Detente between the United States and Russia is impossible in principle at this stage for a number of an extremely important reasons ranging from the America's loss of military-technological parity and overall decline, both relative to others and in absolute terms, of the main instrument of American foreign policy, her military, to a near catastrophic economic outlook for the United States. This major, in fact, defining military-technological factor of the American thinking eludes Stephen Cohen, as it does overwhelming majority of American political scientists. And then, of course, there is a growing recognition within Russia of her own role of an emerging power pole and the center of global influence. Finally, did anyone take a stock of US "elites" recently? The decline, even compared to 1980s, of intellectual level is astonishing. Isn't rather sorry present state of the United States a good indicator of those "elites" quality, or, rather, lack thereof? Remaining American common sense realists (and even this term requires serious elaborations) and patriots are literally removed to the fringes of political power and have very little say in a disastrous US foreign policy. Did Stephen Cohen ask himself lately when was the last time the US won any war?

Now we come to this ever important economic issue. Make no mistake, Russia's economic problems are by no means something to be sneezed at, not at all. But it also has to be understood that typical Western monetarist criteria (Cohen, being namely American scholar hardly operates far beyond those criteria) give an extremely distorted picture of Russian economy. Cohen makes an assertion:

Putin’s domestic problem, on the other hand, is economic and social. Russia’s annual growth rate is barely 2 percent, real wages are declining, popular protests against officialdom’s historically endemic corruption are on the rise, and Putin’s approval rating, while still high, is declining. A public dispute between two of Putin’s advisers has broken out over what to do. On the one side is Alexei Kudrin, the leading monetarist who has long warned against using billions of dollars in Russia’s “rainy day” funds to spur investment and economic growth. On the other is Sergei Glaziev, a kind of Keynesian, FDR New Dealer who has no less persistently urged investing these funds in new domestic infrastructure that would, he argues, result in rapid economic growth.    

It is a "loaded" statement, very recognizably affected by Moscow's rumor mill, but let's start with pointing out what is going on here:

1. This "growth" thing. Here is World Bank's assessment:

Real GDP growth in Russia surpassed expectations in 2018, reaching 2.3 percent, mostly due to oneoff effects of energy construction. Forecasted growth of 1.2 percent in 2019 and 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2021 reflects a more modest outlook.Russia’s macro-fiscal buffers remain strong, with fiscal surpluses across all tiers of government and low public-debt levels. When compared to advanced economies, Russia spends less on health and education. Rebalancing in favor of these categories could improve the overall efficiency of public spending. Short-term inflationary risks have abated, with the Bank of Russia signaling a return to a neutral policy rate. Lending activity is recovering, but the banking sector remains afflicted with high concentration and state dominance. Having eased slightly, the poverty rate remains in double digits with many households close to the poverty line and lacking formal employment. Informal employment is rising in the face of close-to-zero net job creation by medium-sized and large formal enterprises.

Did you catch it? Not enough lending for GDP growth, which is, in normal economies, is a sign of, well...look at the US and her corporate debt. 

U.S. corporate debt is now at an all-time high of over 45% of GDP, which is even worse than the levels reached during the Dot-com bubble and U.S. housing and credit bubble: 

So, Judging Russia using criteria which provide, mostly virtual, "growth" of Western economies, is akin to judging Russia's military power in Power Projection Forces, which Russia not only doesn't need but will have a fairly easy time defending (that is to say sinking) against them.  

Now, let's take a look at, indeed, the real growth which is defined by, and you have guessed it already, industrial and agricultural fields primarily--the fact denial of which is in the foundation of not only lousy, to put it mildly Western forecasts and "intelligence" on Russia, but also in the foundation of, say, American delusion about true size and capability of own economy. Here is a verified data (from Russia herself) on manufacturing following a dip in January 2019.

This is what really defines an actual state of economy and while still represented in monetary (Ruble) units one requires a serious review of overall industrial and agricultural development to have a real feel of economic trends. Yes, there are issues with stagnating wages, yes, there are also issues with poverty, but that is precisely a leftover from monetary policies which kept inflation in check while Russia remains under the unprecedented economic sanctions. And here Cohen makes a huge mistake, Russia's presidential elections were not about electing just President, they were about electing a Commander in Chief first and foremost. One has to keep in mind this crucial distinction.

2. Putin's ratings do not decline, in fact, they remain steady and high when the question of "do you approve of President's work" is asked.

MOSCOW, May 31. /TASS/. The approval level of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s performance among Russians has risen by almost three points over the past 5 months (January - May) to reach a 64.5 percent approval rating, according to a poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center and published on its official website. "In the period between January and May 2019, Vladimir Putin’s approval rating rose from 61.7% to 64.5%, whereas Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s approval rating score increased from 34.3% to 37.4%," the research center reports.

Opinions of American pollsters are not welcomed--they are as fake as US main stream news organizations. In fact, as I stated not for once, most of information on Russia circulating today in the West, unless in is obtained and explained by serious intelligence-analytical organizations (and even then...), is basically a trash. Data provided by Russian media and statistical institutions, even by officially registered as "Foreign Agent" Levada Center (most of Russian "business" media should be also registered as such) proved to be much more reliable and truthful. In terms of identifying short and long trends, for sure. 

3. In this case I also don't get the significance of Cohen elaborating on supposedly "breaking out" of a TWO DECADE+ long discussion between Kurdrin and Glaziev. What's so significant about this massive public discussion in Russia, which is represented widely in media, between Western monetarists and Keynesian-leaning economists? While this discussion, which is not even a news, continues, Russian state returned under own control more than 70 percent of strategic industries and most resources. So, what's so significant about Kudrin saying something? Everybody in Russia knows what he is going to say, but instead of wasting time on his beaten to death arguments, one should really pay attention to how Russia ignored recent Davos forum and why SPIEF grows in global importance. I do understand frustration of "advanced" liberal Russian office plankton and hipster hamsters with Putin, after all they have huge opinion about their very mediocre abilities, but their "protestations" have little effect on a massive shift of Russia away form liberal policies. Russia has money today, it is just the decision on how to open this stream into economy without dis-balancing fairly well-established financial indices, is not made yet.    

So, what struggle Stephen Cohen talks about when states:

It seems unlikely that President Trump or any of the advisers currently around him understand this important struggle—and it is a struggle—unfolding in the Russian policy elite.

I don't know. This struggle, like this discussion, mentioned above, between Kudrin and Glaziev is unfolding now for what, 15 years, maybe 17? As events with Abyzov show, so called "liberal" pro-western "elite" in Russia begins to understand that the only person who separates them and the nooses on the lamp posts, or sharp pitchforks, is none other than Vladimir Putin and his team. In the end, somehow, Putin lately (few months, at least) comes across more and more as a person of a cool and even relaxed disposition who knows that what is needed to be done is being done. 

So, while Russia has some serious problems and there are some protests, I can vouch for this simple fact: MOST--I don't know, 70%, 80%--of population of Russia knows what their country faces today and what it is up against, and that is the main reason why Russia increasingly sought as an ally, no matter if her economy grows 2% (sure, Russia doesn't have Wall Street to fake economic data) or 3%, especially against the background of a tectonic change in global power balance, which Russia and China drive. And while Stephen Cohen's instincts and appeals are good and laudable, he exhibits the same trait characteristic of American Russian Studies field, he misinterprets Russia dramatically. I know, I am writing about this for years. I am almost forced to recall truism attributed to Metternich "Russia is never as strong as she seems, she is never as weak as she seems". Stephen Cohen is a wonderful man and a frequent guest of Russia--I think it is about time we all start operating with hard cold facts. As per summit--do not expect much from it, just another photo-op. United States is NOT treaty-worthy party anymore, especially her current POTUS, so let's drop any pretenses that anything will change between Russia and the United States. No Detente is in plans. Let's say thanks that they at least talk to each-other.   

As Was Expected.

India and Russia on Friday formally sealed the USD 5 billion S-400 air defence system deal and signed eight pacts at the annual bilateral summit in New Delhi even as the US gave a guarded response over the development. The signing of defence deal between India and Russia may invite US sanctions. However, in a guarded statement, the US embassy in New Delhi said that its intent to slap sanctions against Russia was not aimed at imposing damage to the military capabilities of its “allies or partners”, PTI reported.  The US reaction came shortly after India concluded a deal for purchase of S-400 missile defence system from Russia. After wide-ranging talks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday signed the defence deal despite the US warning. Both the sides also talked about taking “decisive” action without “double standards” to tackle the menace of terrorism. 

The actual number (sum) of S-400 contract is quite a bit more (in Russian) but no matter--one way or another, the Russian Air Defense complex with the moniker "Triumph" is definitely triumphant both as a weapon system and as a hi tech commercial item. Of course, expect now all kinds of media military "experts" pretend that they know what it all means and how this means nothing but the truth is simple: Russia gets to keep her clients and she gets them all over Eurasia. Eight other major agreements, ranging from shipbuilding to space, have been signed between Russia and India and, something tells me (wink, wink) that the project for India's fifth generation fighter is far from dead. And, of course (rumors are already in the air) T-14 Armata is supposed to be also on a shopping list...somewhere. All in all, productive summit and, I am sure, new sanctions will follow if not now, then later. It is all about business, folks. 

Now, one is forced to ask a question--what future holds for arms trade. I already know at least partial answer to this. Russians when promising to become number one in arms sales are not bluffing, nor US is slapping sanctions on Russia left and right non-stop just because US elites are viscerally Russo-phobic, which they are, but that is not the only factor. The competition in real hi-tech markets--aerospace, weapons, energy extraction, just to name a few--is heating up. And while Wall Street is busy pretending that Walgreen's or Amazon really matter, the actual and reliable indicator of economic development is good ol' military and actual capabilities it generates. This explains well why the US slapped recently sanctions on Russian companies which are involved in MC-21 manufacturing, such as AeroComposite. US will try to sabotage MC-21 getting anywhere near international market, especially with PD-14 engine. One of the ways to do so is to slap the breaks on, as one of the desperate measures, sale of MC-21 with Honeywell avionics. Sure. The problem, of course, in this approach (for Honeywell) is that the nation (Russia) which produces 100% domestic avionics for SU-35C or SU-57, which makes any commercial aircraft avionics look tame compared to military one, will have no (in fact it is NOT having) problems with fully domestic substitutes which are already available for MC-21. So, who loses? The answer is self-evident. But about this later.  

Meanwhile Russian evilness and monstrosity have no limits, now Russians are guilty of creating a deficit of.... chocolate. The depth of Russian depravity is literally--limitless.        

Summit? What Summit?

As was predicted, there are no plans in Russia to arrange meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. It is absolutely correct approach:

MOSCOW, April 16. /TASS/. Russia and the US are not discussing any possible meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "There is no discussion of the presidents’ possible meeting, which they talked about during their recent telephone conversation," the Kremlin spokesman said. Peskov added that Moscow "expects some conversation to start with time, when American colleagues settle their domestic issues, despite the damage to bilateral relations that Washington is inflicting now."

The immediate question in this case is this: to discuss what with who? What's the point of Vladimir Putin, who represents and is supported by overwhelming majority of the nation and elites, thus carrying legitimacy and guarantee of any treaties and settlements Russia concludes with anyone, meeting with the guy who is completely unhinged as is most of US political class? As Vzglyad, via Wall Street Journal, reports (in Russian), Trump initially was predisposed for all-out attack on Syria including Russian assets and only Mattis' insistence made Trump to yield to more "moderate" version of illegal attack on Syria.

WASHINGTON—President Donald Trump deferred to his Pentagon chief’s caution and tempered his preference for a more robust attack on Syria over allegations it used deadly gas on civilians, the first hints at the direction of his revamped national-security team.

If to believe WSJ—a rather risky proposition for a rag which is vehemently neoconservative-interventionist and is long ago a propaganda outlet for American virtual economy—Trump wanted to go with the "trigger" which Russia clearly indicated: any attack on Russian assets or Russian casualty from strikes—Russian AD gets engaged and will shoot down missiles and will engage missile carriers. Trump, again, if to believe WSJ, wanted just that. So, what's to talk to with the guy and his cabal of unhinged "advisers", such as Bolton, about? It is guaranteed that no negotiated settlement or power configuration between Russia and the US will survive the very first meeting with American media-political environment which cannot be judged anymore in any terms other than a complete mad house. In other words—US is absolutely not-treaty worthy party, period. There is nothing to talk about. There is nobody to talk to for Vladimir Putin. It seems, though, that the only people who operate within general professional and reason-driven framework are "Mad Dog" Mattis and Joseph Dunford—they understand the war, others don't. 

Expect in coming days, week or months an increased volatility and number of provocations initiated by none other than Trump himself with, possibly, Ukraine becoming slightly "hotter", plus other well-known and documented "technologies" from US Department of State's "arsenal of democracy" such as all kinds of "colored revolutions" and destabilization at Russia's perimeter—after all, May 7th is the day of Vladimir Putin's inauguration and then, of course, World Cup 2018—so many opportunities to show oneself a complete sore loser. So many European countries to stage false flag calamities. The United States, or, rather, her current power and media elites are on a collision course with Russia (why not China—is a separate manner, the issue is not only economic). The stakes are enormous—either Russia is destroyed or, which is most likely and is happening already and the process is irreversible, she completely removes herself from the shackles of 1990s and re-emerges as another superpower, this means the end of the United States as we know it, since the main pillar on which US virtual hegemony rests is her self-proclaimed military omnipotence. Once this pillar is removed, for the whole world to see, the US economy, large parts of which are completely "monetized" or exist only on paper, will crumble. I wrote for years and years that the US simply cooks the books, evidently there are people from purely economic-accounting business who agree with me:

With an expected debt-to-GDP ratio of 125% at the end of this year, the US is now just behind Italy as the world’s third most indebted major country, and far above Spain and France with their near 100% debt ratio. Still the future looks yet bleaker as we expect the US debt to grow to $30 trillion within five more years, by 2023. The US debt ratio would then be 140%. For most consumers of economic news, these figures might sound bewildering. But that’s just because you might not know that the US government has been cooking the books. To put it somewhat milder, the US government – (exceptional as they are) – is so to say creative in reporting its debt figures, or at the very least they don’t follow the conventions that apply to the mere mortal countries, that is, to the rest of the world.

It is impossible to even come up with the actual real number of the US GDP—it is not 20 Trillion USD, not even close and declared fictional number is not taken seriously by any competent analyst. American resources, while still significant, are absolutely inadequate for stated goals of American global hegemony. Once the peer appears who the United States cannot defeat militarily and especially so conventionally—the game is over. The more the US stays the present course the more it becomes inevitable that the only things which will be discussed at some point in the future will be not new power arrangements but the terms of surrender. But I wrote about it for years now. So will the US try the unthinkable and destroy herself, and the world, in the process? I wouldn't discount such a possibility.  

What Can Come Out Of It?

The talk of Putin-Trump summit this year, likely in the White House, is being heard both in Russia and the US. I have a dual feeling about that. On one hand, it is really necessary, even if for PR purposes, to show that both presidents get along fine and, maybe, just maybe, reduce some tensions. On the other hand, the question is inevitable--how really free Donald Trump is in his foreign policy pursuits when what he has as a national security team, for the lack of better word, can only be described as unmitigated disaster? What he has in Congress in terms of foreign policy is altogether a collection of mostly ignorant war-mongers and Russophobes.

Donald Trump very well may have genuine human intents "to get along" with Russia (after kicking scores of Russian diplomats out of the US) but what are the real political mechanisms for that? I don't see any, except, as strange as it sounds--lines of communications between Russian and American militaries. Russian-American relations in most other, state-run, aspects are completely destroyed by the American side. Obviously, hysterical anti-Russian campaign by US media and Democratic Party establishment in collusion with RINOs and neocons did impede Trumps maneuvers but, it is now 15 months as he is POTUS and US foreign policy went from completely insane to being on a straight course to unleashing a war with Iran, with good chances of eventually Russian and US clashing. What that means, I do not even want to contemplate. 

In the end, Trump is surrounded by people who are not only utterly unqualified for any serious statesman position, nor are they capable of formulating working policies, but, by the looks of it they might be mentally unstable--looking at John Bolton or at Nikki Hailey one gets exactly this impression. US Russophobia reached such a fever pitch, such a crescendo now that the Congress of Russian Americans was forced to send an open letter to POTUS about discrimination and absolutely toxic atmosphere in the US in relation to Russia and Russians. While US media and their pundits bear a lion share of  responsibility for demonizing Russia and Russians, including those who are loyal US citizens (in the end Mr. Clapper gave his vision of Russians' faulty genetics), they also bear a lion share of responsibility for moving the world closer to a terminal confrontation. These are the media which give the stage to people who openly call for killing Russians. This is also the type of people who populate Trump's Administration today and that brings inevitable question to the fore--does Trump even have powers to formulate, set and guide US foreign policy? 

It was understandable that he was greatly limited in his maneuver during huge prominence of Russiagate, but now? Summit for what? Photo-Op? I don't think that Putin is interested in that. Russia (as represented by Vladimir Putin) is interested at this stage with only one thing--a smooth and as less confrontational as possible transition of the world to a new global order which is already here, it now must be formalized politically, economically, culturally. Russia is absolutely NOT interested in US declining to the point of complete irrelevance, in fact, Russia plays Count Gorchakov's long game:

"You know the sentiments of Russia. We desire above all things the maintenance of the American Union as one indivisible nation. We cannot take any part, more than we have done. We have no hostility to the Southern people. Russia has declared her position and will maintain it. There will be proposals of intervention [by Britain]. We believe that intervention could do no good at present. Proposals will be made to Russia to join some plan of interference. She will refuse any intervention of the kind. Russia will occupy the same ground as at the beginning of the struggle. You may rely upon it, she will not change. But we entreat you to settle the difficulty. I cannot express to you how profound an anxiety we feel--how serious are our fears (emphasis in original)."   

Although those times are gone, and there is no trust left in Russia to current US (and West in general), Russia and Russians know what war is and Russia, through Putin, will do everything to avert a disaster. But it will work better if there is at least some help from Trump. Can he deliver? The new global arrangement must be negotiated, in fact, Trump ran and won elections on this program--America desperately needs rethinking of herself in most aspects of activity of the American State and this needs to be done urgently to avert a disaster which American collapse may bring both to the world at large and to Americans themselves. Nobody wants American collapse. Arms Race? Russia is not going to attack the US unless is attacked first, sure, why not talk about arms race. But is Trump a player with some aces up his sleeve or is he now nothing more than a puppet at the disposal of the American exceptionalist cabal and financial fraudsters who support it? The record is not impressive so far, to put it mildly but hope springs eternal but we may as of yet start relying on who Colonel Wilkerson describes as a "Grand chess-master-in-chief" and his last hope.  Hell, come to think about it, Putin today is, indeed, the only man in the world who keeps it from sliding into abyss. As strange as it sounds, he might be the man who gives the United States a chance to survive and maybe turn into normal country. But that is the issue of geopolitical currency and it may require a separate book.  

UPDATE:  

An excellent input on the situation from M.K. Bhadrakumar--an Indian diplomat. 

I Couldn't Miss This.

Masha Zakharova, the spokesperson for Russian Foreign Ministry promised and delivered. She said she would dance Kalinka and she did. And while she was dancing, other, fictional, yet so real, Russian woman was living in spirit at this high end summit. 

Maria is NOT hot, she possesses what real woman MUST, something much more potent--femininity. And who am I to argue with Count Tosltoy. 

"Without looking at anyone, "Uncle" blew the dust off it and, tapping the case with his bony fingers, tuned the guitar and settled himself in his armchair. He took the guitar a little above the fingerboard, arching his left elbow with a somewhat theatrical gesture, and, with a wink at Anisya Fedorovna, struck a single chord, pure and sonorous, and then quietly, smoothly, and confidently began playing in very slow time, not My Lady, but the well-known song: Came a maiden down the street. The tune, played with precision and in exact time, began to thrill in the hearts of Nicholas and Natasha, arousing in them the same kind of sober mirth as radiated from Anisya Fedorovna's whole being. Anisya Fedorovna flushed, and drawing her kerchief over her face went laughing out of the room. "Uncle" continued to play correctly, carefully, with energetic firmness, looking with a changed and inspired expression at the spot where Anisya Fedorovna had just stood. Something seemed to be laughing a little on one side of his face under his gray mustaches, especially as the song grew brisker and the time quicker and when, here and there, as he ran his fingers over the strings, something seemed to snap.

"Lovely, lovely! Go on, Uncle, go on!" shouted Natasha as soon as he had finished. She jumped up and hugged and kissed him. "Nicholas, Nicholas!" she said, turning to her brother, as if asking him: "What is it moves me so?"

Nicholas too was greatly pleased by "Uncle's" playing, and "Uncle" played the piece over again. Anisya Fedorovna's smiling face reappeared in the doorway and behind hers other faces...

    Fetching water clear and sweet,
    Stop, dear maiden, I entreat-

played "Uncle" once more, running his fingers skillfully over the strings, and then he stopped short and jerked his shoulders.

"Go on, Uncle dear," Natasha wailed in an imploring tone as if her life depended on it.

"Uncle" rose, and it was as if there were two men in him: one of them smiled seriously at the merry fellow, while the merry fellow struck a naive and precise attitude preparatory to a folk dance.

"Now then, niece!" he exclaimed, waving to Natasha the hand that had just struck a chord.

Natasha threw off the shawl from her shoulders, ran forward to face "Uncle," and setting her arms akimbo also made a motion with her shoulders and struck an attitude.

Where, how, and when had this young countess, educated by an emigree French governess, imbibed from the Russian air she breathed that spirit and obtained that manner which the pas de chale* would, one would have supposed, long ago have effaced? But the spirit and the movements were those inimitable and unteachable Russian ones that "Uncle" had expected of her. As soon as she had struck her pose, and smiled triumphantly, proudly, and with sly merriment, the fear that had at first seized Nicholas and the others that she might not do the right thing was at an end, and they were already admiring her The French shawl dance.

She did the right thing with such precision, such complete precision, that Anisya Fedorovna, who had at once handed her the handkerchief she needed for the dance, had tears in her eyes, though she laughed as she watched this slim, graceful countess, reared in silks and velvets and so different from herself, who yet was able to understand all that was in Anisya and in Anisya's father and mother and aunt, and in every Russian man and woman."(c)

Leo Tolstoy, War And Peace. Book VII, Chapter VII.