Showing posts with label US elites. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US elites. Show all posts

Saturday, May 22, 2021

Pepe Escobar's Review And Other Points Of Interest.

Pepe wrote a wonderful review of my latest book for Asia Times, and I am deeply thankful to Pepe for his wonderful writing and being my de facto friend. Distant, for now. You can read the whole thing at The Saker's blog or Unz Review. Here is Pepe in his own words. 

The book, evidently, is doing well, all things considered, and if it contributes to "righting", however feeble this hope seems now, the United States in any way, so it is all for the better. Meanwhile, Biden Admin is literally chasing Russians trying to arrange the summit. Russia waits and doesn't commit because knows that there is very little to negotiate and, finally, Ria publishes today an analytical piece by Pyotr Akopov with symptomatic title: Russia Needs a Predictable Confrontation With the USA. Kinda speaks volumes, doesn't it? Here is an excerpt:

Предсказуемой и стабильной может быть и конфронтация. Но она и так уже идет и точно не закончится ни с каким саммитом — так что можно попробовать поставить ее в определенные рамки и сочетать с разумными компромиссами там, где это отвечает интересам обеих сторон. Для этого действительно нужно разобрать часть завалов на пути двухсторонних отношений — и тут все понимают, что "заваливали" в основном американцы, а разбирать придется вместе.

Translation:  Even confrontation could be predictable and stable. The confrontation is ongoing and surely will not stop after any summit--but at least some effort could be made to put it into some defined framework which allows for reasonable compromises where they satisfy the interests of both sides. For that, certain logjams should be removed on the path of mutual relations--everyone understands that the "jamming" was done primarily by Americans whole removing those logjams will be a job for both.  

Akopov doesn't see many positives in all this hustle around summit and he, justifiably, is not optimistic about American elites who are lost in both international and domestic policies and are totally inadequate to the challenges global tectonic shift in power balance represents. As I say it all the time--they are one trick ponies. Just to illustrate to you  how bad things are, let's take a short walk down the memory lane. It is June of 2015 and popular US geopolitical tabloid The National Interest (I know, I know...LOL) publishes this: 

American Hegemony Is Here to Stay. U.S. hegemony is now as firm as or firmer than it has ever been, and will remain so for a long time to come.

The guy who wrote this 6 years ago is Salvatore Babones, he is an associate professor of sociology and social policy at the University of Sydney and an associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies. I am positive he still teaches... somewhere. Can you imagine WHAT kind of "expertise" this guy procures and what kind of views he holds? Here is his other "prediction" from 2017. 

Globalism Lives. China Won’t Overtake America Any Time Soon

He, Babones, is one of many who do "research" which produces no value whatsoever and thus he arrives, in 2017 no less, to this:

What is America? The world recoils when U.S. President Donald Trump says “America first,” but nothing should be more natural than a president putting his country first. The problem with “America first” is that for many people around the world, America is not just a country. The United States is a country. America is something more—not only the most powerful state, but the cultural, economic, and institutional center of a world that it has partially recreated in its own image. The West does not have a good word to describe America in this expanded sense because the modern West has never seen something like it before. The last time a whole world was so organized around a single, central state was in the fifteenth century, when East Asia was centered on Ming-dynasty China. China at the time wasn’t just the leader or regional hegemon; it was the central state of a political and cultural realm that stretched from Burma to Japan. And the word that came to describe this world was tianxia

Even a broken clock is right twice a day but one MUST ask the question on a validity of such opinions which are presented under the titles of "expertise" and being advanced as "scientific". And here is the point--the drama and the tragedy of the outside observer when writing on a contemporary American geopolitics is in the fact that out of a huge volume of alleged American geopolitical "scholarship" vast majority of it are fantasies or contrived concepts one is subjected to in order to form one's opinion about them. Most of them never pan out and fail in the relatively easy task of setting up a realistic framework, forget about giving weighted and probable forecasts. This trait defines modern American geopolitical thought, top-bottom, and there is no way it is going to change any time soon--the rut of American exceptionalism and the rot of the US academe are such that Babones is not an exception, he is the rule. That is why Akopov, in essence, repeats the thesis I advanced now for many years, including in this blog:

Поэтому никаких иллюзий насчет диалога с Вашингтоном в Москве не существует — то есть речь даже не о возможности о чем-либо договориться, а просто о способности вести диалог, спорить и слушать аргументы друг друга. И дело тут не в личности Байдена — хотя у Путина есть негативный опыт общения с ним — или его команды. Проблема куда шире: в настроениях пребывающей в кризисе американской элиты.  

Translation: That is why Moscow has no illusions about the dialogue with Washington--at issue is not even the possibility to settle anything but at least about ability to conduct dialogue, argue and listen to the arguments of each-other. The problem here is not with Biden's personality--albeit Putin has a negative experience of communicating with him--or Biden's team. The problem is much larger--in the moods of the American elite engulfed in crisis. 

You want to see what kind of crisis it is? Read Salvatore Babones, you will get a feel. 

Sunday, April 4, 2021

Thanks To Bernhard Of Moon Of Alabama...And Happy Easter.

Bernhard's meticulous and steady digging through the pile of media sources provides for a truly great news aggregator, and I may feel today somewhat vindicated and have my rah-rah and ego, which is larger than cathedral, pleasantly tickled.  MoA provides a weekly review of notable sources and in one of them I ran into this conclusions by Esteemed Ambassador Chas Freeman--a former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and deputy assistant Secretary of the State for African affairs, among many other important diplomatic posts he held in the times when the United States actually did have a competent diplomacy. Just take a look at his skills: he speaks Chinese fluently, Spanish and French at the professional level, and Arabic conversationally, in addition to several other languages. Ambassador Freeman studied at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, and he earned a JD from the Harvard Law School and an AB magna cum laude from Yale University.

Here is what attracted me in Freeman's excellent interview:

Boom! I, of course, would argue that at this time the United States lost its competitive edge in a number of crucial fields in which it can not "out-compete" China or Russia, but the message about propaganda is ultimately correct and this "inhaling" is precisely what I warn about non-stop for the last 7-8 years. Just read my Sand Castle Geopolitics series of posts from 2014 in this blog. Recall introduction to my first book:

In other words, US "elites'" "inhaling" own propaganda is a clear and present danger to the world because acting upon what in proper societies is called a historical and geopolitical bullshit is not the way to conduct oneself in the world where we all are merely 30 minutes away from a complete mutual annihilation--an idea many in D.C. simply cannot grasp. In general, Freeman's interview is excellent, including his superb definition of good diplomacy. Freeman's justification of his dropping out of law school is also instructive and explains my concern about huge swaths of America's foreign policy (or lack thereof) big honchos being lawyers primarily. 

Law school is not irrelevant, but it isn’t as interesting as dealing on behalf of the United States with foreign governments and cultures. The French have a phrase, “déformation professionnelle,” which means that you take on the mindset and reasoning skills of a particular profession and you become narrow-minded because you don’t see the whole picture. The first year of law school is a sort of ideological bootcamp in which you are taught to reason in terms of rights, duties, privileges, and immunities, and various other categories relevant to legal reasoning. That training is all very injurious to diplomacy because if you approach an international relationship in terms of who’s right and who’s wrong, you’re wasting your time. There is no superior authority, no court system, and no legal system to sort out many diplomatic questions. If you insist that the other party’s wrong, the other party may decide to go to war with you.

So, enjoy Freeman's interview, while I express my appreciation to Bernhard for pointing out a very important view by a real professional American diplomat of what today could be termed as an "old school" of American diplomacy, because a new one, frankly, is a bunch of ignorant ideologues pretending to be diplomats. I am very happy to have correctness of very many of the key points of my writing being corroborated by an important figure in the ever-shrinking field of the American genuine international relations professionals. 

In related news: my sincere congratulations for Westerners celebrating Easter today. Christ is risen and all the best to all of us. Most importantly--peace on Earth. 

Happy Easter.

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Is It New Strategic Or Inter-Mediate Range LOL?

Are they THAT dumb that they do not even understand that they are already a laughing stock? Here is Hudson Institute meeting today with Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Robert O’Brien. Do not miss first few minutes of introduction of O'Brien and his professional background and experience. 


I know, it is a torturous hour-long molasses of pseudo-scholar bloviation, beaten to death false cliches and tropes about US "national security" to the audience of one of the most neocon and war-mongering "think tanks" (more like a wagon) and this non-event of a typical pre-election chest-thumping and BS spin would have gone unnoticed if not for O'Brien's threat to Russia. Russians even reported it. You can listen to this starting at 56:00. 

Translation: We quit INF Treaty, we are developing hypersonic weapons, systems of delivery by ballistic missiles... We will deploy same weapons, if necessary, in Europe to contain Russia.  

Ahem, as I already stated it not for once, most US top political echelon speeches today have a surreal similarity to North Korean party gatherings in their sloganeering, catch phrases, but go even further from North Korea in a full detachment from reality. I listened to O'Brien's hollow boilerplate that you would spare your personal time by not doing this. But claim about hypersonic weapons was so ridiculous that Russians started... laughing. Sure, US threatening Russia with weapon systems it doesn't have is a good ol' American tradition. But, unlike it was with corrupted and cowardly Gorbachev and his surrounding, times are different in Moscow today and nobody, really, buys this BS anymore, because everyone knows that the gap is generational and the Air-Defense/Anti-Missile system which Russia deploys today, from a mind-boggling ABM position area around Moscow, which simply has no analogues anywhere, to systems designed specifically for working against perspective hyper-sonic weapons--S-300V4--S-400--S-500--is simply unbridgeable anymore. So, sure, a deployment of non-existing weapons is such a threat. 

And here is the deal, me being a US citizen and having America as my (our) home, it is absolutely demoralizing and embarrassing to see these clowns, who are laughed at all over the world and who wouldn't be able to run a convenience store, much less nuclear superpower, who pretend that they know something. They don't, world at large has already figured it out. Russians know this for decade, Chinese too, so does Iran. Instead of initiating a global settlement between the Great Three, a globalist cabal in the US is not only driving the country into the ground but humiliates it constantly, first by cringe-worthy flattery and praising what is not there and never was, and then by parading it as an Exhibit A of political and ideological dysfunction and inability to govern itself. It is mind-boggling. There is nothing more pathetic than in the street fight some bully quitting a bloody bare knuckle pleasantries and suddenly stating that the fight should be fought differently and that he will call now a posse of transformers or Captain America if the opponent will not put his fists in the gloves. Hollow threats, hollow promises, now down right comical bluffing which both sides know is just that, a crock o' shit.  

You already know that my third book is getting ready. I post here an excerpt, highly unedited (so, pardon my Runglish and punctuation), about American idiosyncrasies which lead today to what we all have on our hands--a systemic crisis of the United States. It is not a military analysis book per se. In fact, most of it about economy, culture, energy, what have you, but you know that I wouldn't be me if I wouldn't stick couple of chapters on RRMA, whose "evangelist" I was for many many years. So, here it is:

US Naval War College publication NWCR (Naval War College Review) is known for decades to publish wonderful introspective into the American military thought known as Newport Papers, Newport, Rhode Island, being a location of the Naval War College. A fascinating collection of thoughts and reports on war gaming was and continues to be numbered. One such Newport Paper 20, submitted in 2004 was titled Global War Game. Second Series 1984-1988. It is a monograph on global war-gaming between NATO and Warsaw pact and as foreword to this paper states that it:

“…recounts a uniquely interesting and challenging period in the Naval War College’s engagement with naval and national strategies through the war-gaming process. The games examined the ability of the United States to sustain conventional warfare with the Soviet Union until full mobilization of the nation’s resources could be achieved. Through a sustained set of sequential and interlocking games, the Global process identified a number of important and controversial findings. …these games pointed to the importance of offensive action, including maritime operations; the ability of “Blue” (the West, broadly speaking) to win without resorting to nuclear weapons; and the extensive planning necessary to conduct high-intensity combat over a lengthy period.”[i]   

The monograph is instructive in many important respects, including an attempt to look at such a massive conflict only within conventional, non-nuclear that is, framework. It is also instructive in terms of a rather severe constrains which the carrier-centricity of the US Navy imposed on an imagination of the American planners who still could not recognize an unfolding of new paradigm. The most peculiar phrase of the report on the mutual casualties of war is contained on the page 134: “D+38 Red OSCAR SSGN launches only successful ASCM attack of war.”[ii] It is an extremely important note which tells that on the 38th day of imaginary, or simulated if one wishes, 1984 war between USSR and the West, project 949 Oscar-class missile submarine scored the only hit by the anti-shipping missiles P-700 Granit (NATO: SS-N-21 Shipwreck) on any NATO target of significance. The brief review of the mutually inflicted casualties by no means shows Western “technological superiority”, which was and continues to be tune du jour since the early days of the Cold War, and even the main asset of the US Navy, its aircraft carriers, is being torpedoed left and right and even being heavily damaged by the salvos of cruise missiles by Soviet long-range Naval Missile-carrying Aviation (MRA). It is a peculiar conclusion since unlike Soviet MRA which at that time in 1980s carried very high supersonic (Mach=4.6) missile Kh-22 with active radar homing warhead, its range was around 600 kilometers which was making the mission of Soviet carriers of this missile—Tupolev TU-22—a very calamitous affair against any Carrier Battle Group if it was on alert and had E-2 Hawkeyes and its F-14s Tomcats, with allegedly effective, long-range Aim-54 Phoenix air-to-air missiles, in the air and ready to take on those swarms of TU-22s. Soviets did recognize that the early versions of a Kh-22’s homing devices were vulnerable to jamming and serious losses were expected among TU-22s.   

Yet, the appearance in 1980 of the project 949(A) Oscar-class anti-shipping cruise missile submarines, which were called carrier-killers, together with less-flattering moniker of nuclear loafs, due to their enormous width for housing of the revolutionary anti-shipping missile complex P-700 Granit, was one of the major factors contributing to the appearance of the Aegis-equipped cruisers of Ticonderoga-class and of the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. Both ships were designed with a strong emphasis on AAW (Anti-Air Warfare) and despite their ability to carry many Tomahawk cruise missiles, were and are primarily viewed as an organic integral air-defense and anti-submarine escort of the aircraft carriers. First Aegis-equipped Ticonderoga-class cruisers began to be deployed since 1983 and instead of being equipped with MK-41 Vertical Launch System (VLS) carried outdated and slow MK-26 dual-rail launchers for its Standard MR SM -2 anti-air missiles—system simply not designed to deal with a massive salvo of anti-shipping missiles. Not until the end of 1986 would the US Navy see new ‘improved’ Ticonderoga-class cruisers, starting from USS Bunker Hill (CG 52), entering the fleet. These ships carried much more ‘productive’, meaning higher rate of fire, MK 41 VLS.[iii] Arleigh Burke-class destroyers would not appear in the US Navy until 1991 altogether. Moreover, the issues with much touted Aegis combat control system build around SPY-1 Radar would not only continue to plague it early on, but the whole system failed to intercept even slow and ‘one-after-another’—a scenario excluded from real combat—missiles in tests. Out of 16 missiles launched ‘one-after-another’ only 5 were shot down--a dismal and a deadly failure in case of a real war.[iv] Yet, even set in the realities of 1984 military-technological paradigm, US Naval War College assumed that some of its carriers will be damaged by torpedo salvos from Soviet submarines, while remaining largely impervious to newest supersonic and highly resistant to jamming state-of-the-art M=2.5 capable missile designed to operate in a artificial intelligence network of a large salvo, with missiles capable to communicate between each-other in the salvo, reassign targets by importance and decide on the further course of action. The whole notion that torpedo attacks from maximum distances of 30-40 kilometers, in reality much closer than that, at aircraft carrier would be more effective and less dangerous for the attacking submarine than a salvo of 10-12 supersonic P-700s from a distance of 300-650 kilometers, 650 kilometers being maximum distance at which such missile could be launched, seems at best contrived, at worst—delusional.

There is a vast record of foreign and domestic submarines breaking through ASW screens of the American carriers and ‘scoring’ a torpedo hit on them.[v] But that was under the conditions of however intense but simulated combat. Real life combat would make such a torpedo attack extremely dangerous for attacker which would have to face an intense search operation from both escorts and US submarines operating with the carrier battle group. Anti-shipping cruise missiles were invented and evolved specifically as stand-off weapons ensuring much better chances of survival for an attacker.

A favorite and false premise of the American strategists that modern wars will be fought by traditional weapons revealed a very American idiosyncrasy—lack of desire to adapt. It was this lack of desire which prevented the United States to see and follow an easily predictable evolution of the missiles and enablers, such as highly successful ‘Legenda’ to a modern fusion of sea, ground, air and space-based sensors capable to deliver a reliable targeting for any kind of modern supersonic and hypersonic weapons, capable to strike anywhere around the world.



[i] Global War Game. Second Series 1984-1988. Captain Robert H. Gile (U.S. Navy, Ret.). The Newport Papers. 20. August, 2004. Foreword.
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/newport-papers/34

[ii] Ibid, 134.

[iii] The Naval Institute Guide to Ships and Aircraft of the U.S. Fleet. Eighteens Edition. Norman Polmar. Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, Maryland, 2005, 138-142.

[iv] Lessons Not Learned: The U.S. Navy Status Quo Culture. Roger Thompson (Naval Institute Press, 2007), 176-177.

[v] Ibid, 45, 81.

So, here it is. US "elites" on display, who still live in their little bubble and who do not care about how they look from the outside. A complete intellectual and moral collapse.