Whoops!

Denis Manturov, the head of Minpromtorg, finally explained to TASS those "issues" with CR-929 and they expose, quite well, reasons why I am always stand-offish whenever I speak about joint projects with China. This "insight" explains it very well. 

— Возвращаясь к теме международного сотрудничества, что сейчас происходит с совместным проектом России и Китая по созданию дальнемагистрального широкофюзеляжного авиалайнера CR929?

— Думаю, мы в первом квартале следующего года проведем очередные переговоры, выйдем на понятные перспективы и сроки. Но у наших китайских коллег на сегодняшний день в этом проекте присутствуют заявки на участие от различных производителей компонентов третьих стран. Мы же такой формат для себя не рассматриваем, с учетом сегодняшней ситуации и всех рисков, которые очень хорошо понимаем. Поэтому, чтобы с ними не столкнуться, возможно, примем для себя решение из партнера в рамках этого проекта перейти в статус поставщика агрегатов, компонентов.

Translation: - Returning to the topic of international cooperation, what is happening with the joint project of Russia and China to create a long-haul wide-body airliner CR929? 

 - I think we will hold regular negotiations in the first quarter of next year, and reach clear prospects and deadlines. But our Chinese colleagues today have applications for participation in this project from various manufacturers of components from third countries. We do not consider such a format for ourselves, given the current situation and all the risks that we understand very well. Therefore, in order not to encounter them, we may make a decision for ourselves from a partner within the framework of this project to move into the status of a supplier of aggregates and components.

In other words, geopolitical aims, and whenever speaking about aerospace we need to keep in mind that it is an industry of global importance, of Russia and China diverge here, and diverge seriously. Russia is pursuing, quite successfully, an autarkic model in strategic industries, China does not and the trend in Chinese commercial aerospace is very clear. I already presented here the composition of Chinese C-919 and wrote about it recently. Remember? 

I cannot emphasize enough when speaking about aerospace that China, for all her great economic achievements, is STILL not in the premier league of the aerospace and, as an example, nuclear submarines, among few other sectors. China builds her commercial aerospace with the sight on the West's markets, thinking, very wrongly, that practically all-Western aircraft produced in China, such as C-919, or even joint CR-929 containing a truck-load of Western-made systems, will somehow grant China the entrance to Western market or the markets elsewhere. In this case China sets herself for failure, because commercial aerospace market doesn't work like this. 

Manturov is correct, that if China decides to go this way, Russia must simply withdraw as a partner from this project and contract herself as a supplier. It will release Russia's resources for development of her domestic wide-body aircraft which, most likely, will be redesigned and re-motorized to two PD-35s iteration of an excellent IL-96. Never again will Russia depend on the combined West for anything, especially in such critical industrial field as commercial aerospace. In combat aviation Russia remains one of the two leaders in the world, and, as today's events showed, Russia increases production of SU-57s and today a new batch has been delivered to Russian Air Force (in Russian). 

As Lavrov stated today--the US informed Russia through diplomatic channels that they do not want to fight Russia directly. Sure, who would, but the US thinks it can exhaust Russia. Naive and uneducated people they are in D.C. Not very bright, because they didn't study real economy and war. Same goes for Brussels. But I repeat myself.

An Interesting Coincidence?

It is a very peculiar coincidence. First, Yahoo publishes this:

That the U.S. and EU bolster their respective aerospace giants is a basic fact of the industry at this point. Yet the firms’ fierce rivalry and the enormous market share at stake means the U.S. and EU have challenged the other’s state-sponsored support—It’s fundamentally unfair! It’s market-distorting!—for well over a decade. Both sides’ claims have been at least partially upheld by the World Trade Organization, and those victories mean that each has the opportunity to hammer the other with tariffs. In other words: it’s payback time. But as the U.S. and EU trade threats on behalf of their industrial champions, an upstart aerospace firm could pose a threat to Boeing and Airbus’s long-term lock on the market. And it’s not wasting time worrying about subsidies; in fact, it’s welcoming state aid from an enthusiastic booster: China.

Of course down the article Yahoo makes a distinction: 

In fact, France has warned against any escalation of the trans-Atlantic subsidies argument, with Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire saying last week that it could “play into the hands” of a potentially significant competitor to both companies: the Commercial Aircraft Corp of China, or Comac. Comac, in partnership with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp, recently unveiled proposals for a long-haul widebody jet. It is already selling smaller models to Chinese carriers such as Chengdu Airlines, and trying to target some emerging markets such as Ghana with those regional planes. And all with the Chinese government’s support.

I have news for France's Finance Minister, who, obviously, having degree in literature from Sorbonne, before enrolling into Government Administration program, may not know it, but there are few very, how to put it politely, noticeable issues with this statement. Good that at least UAC and Russia were mentioned there. COMAC-919 is being created as primarily internal Chinese commercial aviation market filler for the nearest (10-30 years) future. COMAC-919 which still continues to have issues, is an outdated design and, apart from being a thoroughly "Western" aircraft it doesn't have...drum roll... indigenous competitive engine. It is simply not there, apart from few demonstrators which are not in the production and God knows when will be. 

And here is a Russian "coincidence: in Vzglyad with a telling title:

Китай ждет помощи от России в области авиации (China expects help from Russia in aviation field). 

Here is in English. 

Enter life-giving US sanctions on Russia. Only totally delusional people will continue to believe BS of sanctions in military and aerospace field against Russia as having something to do with politics--BS. It is all about Boeing and American Military-Industrial Complex. After all, none other than Russia's PM Dmitry Medvedev (whose role I am in the process of reassessing in a very positive direction now, after some new facts) today already reported Russia's military contracts portfolio worth $54.5 billion. Thankfully, by imposing sanction, such as those on composites by Hexcell, US, thinking that they damage MC-21 program, merely accelerated and to a breakneck speed localization of this aircraft, which will be a direct, unlike is the case of COMAC-919, competitor to both A-320neo and whatever the ill-fated B-737Max 8 will become.   

But that is the whole point, for the first time in history China was invited to become a co-organizer of the famed MAKS air exhibition, MAKS-2019. It will be at this massive salon that China will feature own progress but also the mock-up of  CR-929, Russian-Chinese wide-body airliner--the actual article, which together with MC-21 is honed to break up Boeing-Airbus duopoly. Behind all that one can see the shadow of not only majority of Russian home-made systems ranging from APU to avionics, and composites, which are already part of the newly constructed MC-21s, but of PD-14 engine which already received the certificate of type, while Russian-made APU received certificate from EASA. Russia ALREADY has certified PD-14 and the logical next step of PD-35 for wide-bodied intercontinental CR-929 and, wait a minute, IL-96, is being taken as I type this.

In the end, it is about more than just Boeing-Airbus saga, it is about those shady Russkies, hiding behind the tree in the ambush and waiting for their chance. So, let me reiterate--no own engine, no great aviation power. COMAC-919 will be powered undeniably by P&W or CFM. PD-14 is competitive and it already flies and is being produced, actually. Chinese AJ-1000A, will see. But in any case, Russia's return to commercial aircraft market will be noticed. Hell, it is already noticed, hence US sanctions--sanctity of Boeing, especially after this gigantic FUBAR with B-737 Max 8, must be well-guarded. Make no mistake, I am not sarcastic here, when I type this. The duopoly will be broken one way or another and behind it, apart from obvious advanced avionics, materials and design, all of which Russia has, is a massive Soviet/Russian school of engine manufacturing which was and is behind some of the most outstanding military aircraft in history. This experience is a key--that is why China paid billions to get her hands on Russian version of SU-35, that is why Egypt wants it, Indonesia signed the contract for 11 of them and that is why United States slaps economic sanctions on anything Russian--because it is too damn good and competitive. So simple, really.  

As per MAKS-2019. That is going to be a treat for aerospace obsessed and an eye candy. It always is.       

Some Truly Gigantic News.

No, not about stock market which behaves like a loony--that is totally expected in the "economy" where median house price of $320,000 is considered "affordable", yes, for very few, actually. And even rent is not affordable for 66% of renters. Now, the news about real economy, of Russia. These news mark a major new point of bifurcation for Russia. Today, Russia's hi-tech colossus State Corporation Rostec acquired 92% of interest in another Russia's giant--United Aircraft Corporation (UAC).   

Implications of this monstrous transaction are truly proportional to the size and capabilities of this variant of Russian State Keiretsu (sort of) which emerges. In the same time today, Vladimir Putin introduced legislation to State Duma, for passing--many in Duma after that soiled their pants, the legislation is about the right of Russia's Prosecutor General to literally hunt for the foreign accounts of Russia's bureaucrats (in Russian) who are not supposed to have any foreign assets while being employed by state structures. Like Duma legislators, among others, maybe? What does this remind you of? Oh, that, sure as hell, reminds me of what overwhelming majority of Russians were begging for decades since criminal so called liberal oligarchy came to power in 1991--to reformat economy. You see, those damn Bolsheviks, Communists, whatever "Ists", they, for some obviously nefarious reasons, took backward Russia and turned her into the industrial superpower and most educated nation in the world. Majority of Russian population still remembers this, despite all massive efforts of all kinds of "dissidents", "liberal" (in reality totalitarian laissez-faire and Russophobic) brainwashing machines known today as media, or direct efforts of hostile propaganda, to pour buckets of sewage on Russian people historical experiences and memory.

As it turned out--this is why Western "intelligence" can not grasp it--that, unlike Americans, who are fiercely anti-government and anti-state in metaphysical sense, Russians throughout all their history were, actually, building a state. They had to--otherwise how can one survive more than 800 years of brutal warfare out of 1200 years of history without the state. It matters that, quoting George F. Kennan:

Not all that went by the name of communism in Russia was bad; nor were all those who believed in it. 

No, don't worry, Russia is not about to become communist or is about to become new Soviet Union--not even close. Russia will continue to remain capitalist, free enterprise (in fact new programs in support of small and mid-size business are being readied as I type this) and broadly free socially and culturally. But here is the issue--Russians, unlike Westerners, have a very different concept of national treasure. As I spoke about this for a while on this blog, using American examples--is Boeing a national treasure of the United States? Absolutely it is, it is a part of America itself. Is Boeing a private company? Well, yeah. But can you imagine a group of Boeing's shareholders getting together in some secret place and deciding (well, just imagine for the sake of the argument) to dissolve Boeing, sell its assets and go on living on their acquired immense wealth? This is impossible--because this would be considered, and rightly so, the act of national treason in America and, I am sure, those who will come to this decision to sell Boeing will be hunted down and revenge will be exacted because Boeing, while being a private company, in reality IS NOT. One can earn or lose money on Boeing's shares but Boeing is in effect a (American) state company. And, of course, US government actively supports Boeing not just out of altruistic intentions or because it is greedy, no. It supports Boeing because it is a national, state strategic asset. Remember air refueling  aircraft B KC-767scandal?  

The same principle applies to many American companies because there IS NO market forces and "honest" competition (all figments of imagination of Western "economists") when the fate of a nation is on the table. Fate of modern nations which have no massive and advanced real hi-tech machine-building complex is sad--they stop being players. This is exactly what US-inspired 1990s "reforms" pursued in Russia--to deindustrialize the nation which won WW II in Europe, restored itself after the war, led the way into space and even today remains among most educated nations of the world. For overwhelming majority of Russians their national treasure is not just oil, gas and minerals, albeit this too--crown jewels of Russia also are her spacecraft, weapons, fundamental sciences, many machines, in general, even still largely Soviet public education, all those things which separate just any nation from superpower. Bolsheviks "poisoned" Russians making them wanting to work in real economy, and merging UAC with Rostec is one of those ways to guarantee that never again sleazy and bloody hands of "oligarchs" will ever again touch what is Russia's main national treasure, the one which allows Russia to exist as a nation, as a civilization--a powerful advanced Russian State. I already can hear squealing from Russia's "liberal" (completely marginal) quarters--it is music to my ears and I am a consummate capitalist. But I can only follow Kennan's dictum that many things which Soviet system provided for Russians were, indeed, not only good but had a major historic positive impact. Putin and his people are trying to preserve them.  But as I always say, until "West" learns REAL Russian 20th century history it will continue to remain in a complete delusion.      
Remember this picture Putin presented as a gift to PM Medvedev on his birthday in 2016?

As you can see, the hint was obvious--get busy with re-industrialization of the nation. Today we may say that it is in a full swing. Enough to look, among myriad other things, at the portfolio of still in construction gigantic shipyard Zvezda near Vladivostok--it has orders for 23 gigantic ships, especially Aframax-class. Even Soviet Union didn't build those. Stock Market, you say? I believed since 2013 that he and his people were preparing some breakthrough for Russia. There were signs, then Crimea happened, today signs are everywhere and only blind and deaf can not see and hear them.   

As Was Expected.

India and Russia on Friday formally sealed the USD 5 billion S-400 air defence system deal and signed eight pacts at the annual bilateral summit in New Delhi even as the US gave a guarded response over the development. The signing of defence deal between India and Russia may invite US sanctions. However, in a guarded statement, the US embassy in New Delhi said that its intent to slap sanctions against Russia was not aimed at imposing damage to the military capabilities of its “allies or partners”, PTI reported.  The US reaction came shortly after India concluded a deal for purchase of S-400 missile defence system from Russia. After wide-ranging talks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday signed the defence deal despite the US warning. Both the sides also talked about taking “decisive” action without “double standards” to tackle the menace of terrorism. 

The actual number (sum) of S-400 contract is quite a bit more (in Russian) but no matter--one way or another, the Russian Air Defense complex with the moniker "Triumph" is definitely triumphant both as a weapon system and as a hi tech commercial item. Of course, expect now all kinds of media military "experts" pretend that they know what it all means and how this means nothing but the truth is simple: Russia gets to keep her clients and she gets them all over Eurasia. Eight other major agreements, ranging from shipbuilding to space, have been signed between Russia and India and, something tells me (wink, wink) that the project for India's fifth generation fighter is far from dead. And, of course (rumors are already in the air) T-14 Armata is supposed to be also on a shopping list...somewhere. All in all, productive summit and, I am sure, new sanctions will follow if not now, then later. It is all about business, folks. 

Now, one is forced to ask a question--what future holds for arms trade. I already know at least partial answer to this. Russians when promising to become number one in arms sales are not bluffing, nor US is slapping sanctions on Russia left and right non-stop just because US elites are viscerally Russo-phobic, which they are, but that is not the only factor. The competition in real hi-tech markets--aerospace, weapons, energy extraction, just to name a few--is heating up. And while Wall Street is busy pretending that Walgreen's or Amazon really matter, the actual and reliable indicator of economic development is good ol' military and actual capabilities it generates. This explains well why the US slapped recently sanctions on Russian companies which are involved in MC-21 manufacturing, such as AeroComposite. US will try to sabotage MC-21 getting anywhere near international market, especially with PD-14 engine. One of the ways to do so is to slap the breaks on, as one of the desperate measures, sale of MC-21 with Honeywell avionics. Sure. The problem, of course, in this approach (for Honeywell) is that the nation (Russia) which produces 100% domestic avionics for SU-35C or SU-57, which makes any commercial aircraft avionics look tame compared to military one, will have no (in fact it is NOT having) problems with fully domestic substitutes which are already available for MC-21. So, who loses? The answer is self-evident. But about this later.  

Meanwhile Russian evilness and monstrosity have no limits, now Russians are guilty of creating a deficit of.... chocolate. The depth of Russian depravity is literally--limitless.        

Follie De Grandeur Or Why Bundeswehr Will Remain A Joke.

It is a truism by now that Western media (with some very few exceptions) are nothing more than a collection of hacks or straight forward imbeciles who live in their own created and paid for by handlers universe which does not correspond to reality in any way. US (so called main stream) media are bad, a sewer, really, but German ones--that is a special case, those gave a fabricated lie and Josef Goebbels a bad name. Here is why. Today, Berlin's daily Der Tagesspiegel published a piece by its Brussels' correspondent Markus Grabitz titled:  Steht die Nato vor dem Aus? (Does NATO Stand Out? Or, most likely, Is NATO Over?)  

Google Translate does the job and the piece is basically nothing but reflexive peeing into own pants by what in Europe passes as "intellectuals"  and is full of myopia so characteristic of the EU's political (and media) class. It would have been an absolutely average and useless piece if not for this and I, with the help of translator, quote:

Does Europe still need NATO?Without NATO's protective shield and its deterrent effect on potential attackers, the security situation in Central Europe would dramatically change. The Baltic States, Poland or Hungary would not be able to defend themselves against their Russian armies with their national armies. The Bundeswehr would not be able to do this in its present form. The German economic power is, of course, three times the size of the Russian economy. In an extreme case, Germany could afford a military equal or even superior to the Russian. This would, however, be many times more expensive than today's defense expenditure. The collective defense in NATO is not only more secure. It also saves money. All NATO countries together are more than 25 times superior to Russia. Basically, no military expert believes that Putin would dare to deal with NATO. This assumption is, of course, based on the fact that the alliance makes its alliance guarantee credible: in an attack on a member, NATO would defend this country with its concentrated force.

I literally had to rub my eyes and pinch myself to make sure that I am not dreaming and  reading what I am reading. My issue was not with geopolitical delirium and historical ignorance literally saturating this whole piece--it is expected from German media. My issue was with two phrases highlighted in red and blue and the reason for my reaction is solidly justified--this is how those EU imbeciles, from the top down, think. I will start with the "blue", which will explain why "red" is also a testament to a complete bankruptcy of EU ideology and real politics. I will start with the plane I observed not for once over Baltic Sea, including their "simulation" of the attack on our ship. This jet fighter was Lockheed F-104 Starfighter.  United States produced many good fighter jets in its history--some were good, others were outstanding fighter planes. Starfighter was a piece of shit. Everything about it was bad, USAF abhorred it and, as it is often the case, unloaded this piece of flying crap (or aka in Italian Air Force--a flying coffin) onto Luftwaffe. You think Germans were happy with this plane? Hell, no! They lost...drum roll..116 pilots in this machine in the peace time. But guess what? Germany was told to jump and the only thing Germany was allowed to do was to ask: "How high?" And high jumping Luftwaffe did until flying this POS became so dangerous and so scandalous that this fighter was basically grounded. By that time Luftwaffe lost 30% of its Starfighter force. 

      

This scandal was partially due to Lord Ismay's favorite truism that  NATO (that is US vassaldom) was needed  "To keep Russians out, the Americans in, and Germans down". And, boy, did they do "keeping Germans down" thing to the fullest. Part of this "down", apart from brainwashing of Germany's "elites" and, as a consequence, a general population was in denying Germany any ability to have a viable aerospace industry. Make no mistake, Germany was allowed to have its own weapon systems' development, such as armored forces, or naval shipbuilding but no real aerospace. Participate? Yes. Have own indigenous civilian and military aircraft? No. Yes, it is true that today Germany houses a number of integration facilities for Airbus, aka Airbus-Germany and employs there 48 000 people but this are civilian aircraft and it is not a fully enclosed technological cycle. In the end, the main "thinking" for Airbus planes is done in Toulouse. Engines for those aircraft are altogether a different story. But military aviation? This is a whole other story and there is a reason why. 

Currently there are only TWO aerospace powers, nations, in the world who can provide a complete enclosed cycle for a top notch, cutting edge military aircraft from extracting the ore to design, R&D and full production cycle of all components of such an aircraft, especially its avionics and engines. Do I need to name these two nations? Anybody who would  suggest that China is in this league would have to strongly reconsider. Chinese, for the lack of better word, desperate desire to get hands of Russia's SU-35 is easily explained by long time inability by China to develop world-class jet engine and avionics for its fighters, very many of which are nothing more than knockoffs of Russia's venerable SU-27s. But at least Chine has a cycle (and a shitload of money), it does produce her own military aircraft, Germany does not, even if to consider a cooperative European effort with Eurofighter Typhoon. In the end, even the Eurojet EJ200 engines used in Typhoons are a cooperative effort based on Rolls Royce design.  So, in order for ambitious Germany to get armed forces "equal" or "even superior" to those of Russia, Germany has to start with military aviation and here Germany is no contest since Russia's military (and civilian) aviation experience dwarfs that of Germany by several orders of magnitude. 

Currently Luftwaffe has at its disposal 123 Typhoons (a very good fighter) and 89 Panavia Tornado, roughly half of which has been cannibalized for spare parts and eventually failed to deploy as part of NATO Syria force. So, if we are to consider what Germany has to undertake to even equal Russia in military aviation format we may start with stating that currently Germany has about 200 (maximum) combat worthy aircraft against Russia's Aerospace Force's. How Germany is going to close the gap in several hundred combat aircraft between Luftwaffe and Russia's Air Force, which deploys some of the world's most cutting edge combat aircraft remains simply a mystery to any sober observer. Russia's PAK FA (T-50) has its IOC by the end of this year. Russian Air Force took a delivery of hundreds of newest SU-30/SU-34/SU-35 and MiG-29SMTs since 2009, about 100 of a monster of MiG-31 will complete its modernization to BM modification by 2018. We are not talking about couple hundreds, the gap in modern (I underscore, modern--that is a whole shebang from glass cockpits to cooperative engagement capabilities) combat aircraft between Russia and  Germany is more like 6-7 hundred. All Russian military aircraft are produced domestically. German? But, of course, Germany doesn't have own AWACS capability, Russia does and her latest A-50Us are marvels of signal processing and radar technology.  With all due respect to German engineering genius but designing and building a Mercedes, stuffed with a bunch of electronic toys invented not in Germany (GPS is built and controlled by US) is one thing, building modern Aerospace (emphasis on space) force  is a completely different shtick. After all, Russia Aerospace forces use their own GLONASS for their high precision weapons. Russia's MRI machines may not be as good as that of Siemens but they are good enough to have Russian-made processors in them. 

In general, modern Germany barely registers in the aerospace field which is dominated by United States, Russia, China and Anglo-French alliance. So, in order for Germany to "equal" Russia here she needs to build own aerospace industry. Even if to consider Germany's (sometimes greatly overrated) scientific and engineering capability--it would take her about 20-25 years at least and hundreds of billions of...Deutschmarks? If, after those 25 years, Germany will be able to produce a completely indigenous design of even half-decent (not 21st century equivalent of F-104 Starfighter) modern fighter, then the wet-dream of Herr Grabitz may come half-true. But, frankly, I do not see how Germany can match Russia in civilian, forget advanced military, aircraft. The same calculations go into other defense spheres, from making state-of-the-art nuclear submarines and weapon systems for them (yes, Germany does produce decent enough SSKs, some with Air Independent Propulsion), such as long range cruise missiles to the whole S4ISR complex, where same Germany doesn't register realistically either, since does not have viable space program (another trillion or two and about 30-40 years). For that, Germany, as a NATO member, depends completely on USA. So, if someone thinks that Germany will be able to "match" Russia here--one has to really make an appointment with psychiatrist. But that brings us to the "red" part--I dedicated a lot to this topic in this blog and no matter how it is unpleasant for some Germans, Russia's real GDP is about the size of Germany, in reality, when idiotic IMF monetary statistics is discounted, much larger than that of a Germany. It is just that Russian satellites cost less than overpriced and over-engineered BMWs. 

But in the end, with all my deep respect to German people and for their massive accomplishments, some of which I admire myself, it has to be understood that modern economy and modern war is not what German journo hacks think they are. All those indices and wet-dreams fly out of the window once one has to face a very cruel reality in which Germany remains and will remain a large economy and military-political midget, who will never again make any trouble in Europe big time. But by far the most important thing those German media imbeciles have to understand that Russia has no plans whatsoever to "attack" any NATO country, let alone Germany whom Russia can obliterate by purely conventional means, let alone, if, God forbids, push comes to shove, by nuclear means. But the way things are happening now, Germans themselves do a hell of a job turning their country into a third world shithole and they, maybe, are already pass the point of no return. In this case they will have to try to "equal" something more of their own size.