An Interesting Quip...

... from Douglas Macgregor.  Same ol' issue of SLOCs and sustainability of any US force in Europe. 

RFK JR is spot on regarding Washington’s poorly disguised attempt to drag us into war with Russia, but the situation in Ukraine is very different and we have no ground troops to send. The European peoples don’t want a war and neither do Americans. In 1965 the mood in America was very supportive of intervention in SE Asia to fight communism. I know. I was there. It would take four years for American support to collapse.  In addition, for reasons of geography, Ukraine cannot become another Vietnam. In 1965 no one could or would interdict us on the way to Vietnam. Today, Russian subs would immediately shut down the Atlantic and all of our staging areas in Eastern Europe would utterly demolished in a hail of missiles. Worse, US-NATO air and missile defenses are only capable of defending 5% of NATO’s European territory. In the space of 5-7 daisy our missile supply would be exhausted. I could go on, but you get the point. It’s a dead end. Any attempt to mimic the approach to Vietnam will end abruptly and badly for the US and Europe. That was the point that Orban tried to make.

Well. Technological and operational reality is a bitch, you cannot escape it, no matter how you try and any shipping through Atlantic Ocean will be ground to a halt in a matter of days. Naval warfare changed dramatically and you can not defend SLOCs from technology which is several generations ahead of whatever Houthis have, plus add here massive quantities of it. We all know what Houthis did and how they paralyzed marine traffic in the Red Sea. Combined NATO navies couldn't a thing about it other than barely defending themselves. Now imagine when a couple of Yasens (pr. 885) and several Akulas (pr. 971M) go out to hunt--good luck trying finding them without risking own aircraft carries. Just classic escort by something like Arleigh Burke class DDGs is a death trap, because no US asset has the ability to deal with salvos of newest anti-shipping missiles. So, no good options. Those escorts will be sunk and "convoy" or dispersed group of strategic lift vessels will be found out and sunk too. It is 2024, Ladies and Gentleman, not 1943.

But in the end, let's imagine that the US somehow manages to put some force into Europe--it will not be sustainable in the serious war no matter what. Have you seen the US "force protection" capabilities? Patriot PAC3, NASAMS et al--seriously? That's you answer. I'll remind you--estimates for US casualties in such a war will average for the US Army on 3,600 KIAs and WIAs daily. US Army is incapable to fight such a war even if to imagine that SLOCs somehow will be relatively safe. Neither is American society.