Showing posts with label real economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real economy. Show all posts

Thursday, October 26, 2023

Dr. Fadi Lama...

... my first attempt at being a journalist (I suck at interviewing people), thankfully Dr. Lama did excellent job himself. So, this is an introduction to what I would like to frame as Conversations with Dr. Lama. Hey, that's my first time, all right.

 
 
You can buy his book, which I strongly suggest, at either Clarity Press Inc., or at Amazon following the hyperlinks. Outstanding book!

Thursday, May 25, 2023

"Biased" Is A Wrong Term.

The proper term will be "cooking books". But finally people that matter speak about it and I was calling on that for years. 

The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) member states should establish a rating agency to provide adequate assessment tools for the region’s growing economic activity, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said. The proposal was made during a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Moscow on Thursday. Currently, the market for international credit ratings is dominated by three US-based agencies: Moody’s Investor Services, Standard and Poor’s (S&P), and Fitch Group. Countries outside the West have accused them of economic and political bias when it comes to assessing their markets. “It would be useful to establish the Eurasian rating agency,” Putin stated, adding that principled approaches and strict criteria are needed. “It is important to guarantee that the work is absolutely objective. This is its whole value. If this is not the case, then there is no point in it,” the Russian leader stressed.

I am on record--ALL, without exception, Western establishment rating agencies and most of the "economists" are frauds. "Biased" is not the term to use here. US economic statistics is a case in economic fairy tales whose only task is to hide US' departure from largely self-proclaimed economic hegemon status. Real US economy is dwarfed by China, and India, for all India's huge problems with poverty and other social ills, still is larger than the US as an economy. 

Again, just one of the clues from World Steel Association:

In general, similar dynamics is present pretty much across the board in key industries which see combined West falling behind everywhere and as SMO demonstrated--the West has neither capacity nor resources to ramp up production in key military fields, because of the resources hunger and increased technological backwardness. 

War is a great litmus test, always was. Just to demonstrate:

«ООО «ЧТЗ-УРАЛТРАК» значительно увеличило количество выпускаемых танковых двигателей. Достичь объемы выпускаемой продукции, превышающие лучшие показатели послевоенного периода СССР, удалось за счет грамотной организации производства», — говорится в сообщении во «ВКонтакте». Директор по особым поручениям «Уралвагонзавода» Игорь Мешков отметил, что на ЧТЗ ведется техническое обновление и модернизация производства, а за последний год на 30% увеличена численность коллектива. «По итогам работы I квартала текущего года объем ежемесячно выпускаемых модернизированных дизельных двигателей превысил на 12% показатели СССР периода холодной войны. Такие показатели были достигнуты впервые за новейшую историю ЧТЗ», — заявил он.

Translation: ChTZ-URALTRAK LLC has significantly increased the number of tank engines produced. It was possible to achieve production volumes exceeding the best indicators of the post-war period of the USSR due to the competent organization of production, ”the message says on VKontakte. Igor Meshkov, Director for Special Assignments of Uralvagonzavod, noted that ChTZ is undergoing technical renovation and modernization of production, and over the past year, the number of employees has been increased by 30%. “According to the results of the first quarter of this year, the volume of monthly production of modernized diesel engines exceeded the indicators of the USSR during the Cold War by 12%. Such indicators were achieved for the first time in the recent history of ChTZ,” he said.

Now ask yourself a question: can the US do the same? No. US has the "best" stock market in the world where it trades thin air, but in terms of tanks the US cannot produce modern tank at all. And this is just one example. Do Moody's or S&P ratings in any way reflect this reality? Of course not, most people who work there they are products of fraudulent economics programs of Western universities and have no grasp of the modern economy and productive forces--it is difficult in scientific sense (physics, math, chemistry, engineering etc.) and they don't teach those and they lack cultural upbringing to get it. So, they produce useless fumes of finances and concoct preposterous GDP numbers. Some of them cook books unwittingly, others do it on purpose. Result, however, is always the same--GIGO (Garbage In, garbage Out). 

And here we come to this sensitive topic of which, as an example Larry wrote not for once, when describing CIA--the West lacks serious strategic intelligence and forecasting capability due to atrocious incompetence of its "intel" community which operates in virtual reality and echo chamber and is incapable, on the institutional level, to produce anything firmly grounded in reality. One cannot produce that when operates within West's framework of economic and military data completely devoid of context. As a result we all have to content with US economy the size of $23 trillion, while in reality it is only half of that, we have to accept fraudulent numbers of growing "capitalization" of things which, in reality, lose their value due to tear and wear and growing obsolescence. In the end, the result of all that is cheap propaganda of the US "defeating" Hitler, or F-15 being the best fighter in the world, while never encountering serious competent enemy in the skies or Air Defense. It is one non-stop chest thumping, which Senator Fulbright summarized succinctly in 1960s. 

“It is simply not necessary for us to go around forever proclaiming: ‘I am the greatest!’ The more one does this sort of thing, in fact, the more people doubt it….”  
Finally, the bluff has been called and we all are witnessing the implosion of the myth and are trying to perceive the dangers and trials of living with the consequences of dishonesty and incompetence of people who thought that they knew it all. They didn't, hence a miscalculation on a massive historic scale, which sealed the fate of the West.

Thursday, April 13, 2023

And it's too late, baby now, it's too late(c).

Ah, Carole King. In related news: 

Translation: The EU wants to use money from Russia sanctions to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. But the money has to be found first - and the legal situation is unclear, as unpublished documents show. But Brussels has come up with a trick.

But, but... now they conclude that EU may not touch these funds and that they have to be returned to Russia once the hostilities are over, granted they will find them;)) Well, as Carole King sang--it is too late. The combined West stole this money from Russia and now any kind of attempts to play it "judicially" is risible--it is too late. EU demonstrated what it is and there is nothing to talk about: EU will pay for restoration of 404, including the territories which became part of Russia and it will not be done by "investing" Russia's funds into some shitty EU papers and using interest on them to pay for 404's restoration. EU, same as the US, is non-agreement capable, period. Proper conclusions have been made by the Russian side. 

In related news, CIA's big honcho Burns noticed:

The dominant global role of the US can no longer be guaranteed as the country is witnessing a time of change “that comes along a couple of times a century,” CIA Director Bill Burns has claimed. Speaking at the Baker Institute earlier this week, Burns said that although Washington “still has a better hand to play than any of our rivals,” it is “no longer the only big kid on the geopolitical block and our position at the head of the table isn’t guaranteed.” The CIA chief pointed to growing ties between China and Russia, which he argued will present a “formidable challenge” for his agency for years to come. According to Burns, Beijing is “not content to only have a seat at the table; it wants to run the table,” while Russia is seeking to “upend the table altogether.” 

Good luck trying to "spy" on Russia or China. But I have some news for CIA and their World Factbook--most economic data on Russia there is mostly crap written by the followers of the Wall Street "methods", as is, incidentally, data on the American economy which is dramatically smaller than it is being portrayed. They should forget about using US Dollar as a measure of anything real economy related because it is nothing but pseudo-economical legerdemain used to run financial institutions by the United States. And yes, the table has been upended altogether and it is a fait accompli. But even IMF cannot hide facts anymore, even if it doctors its own data:

Do you know what drives this growth? No, not service economy--this one shrank somewhat because one needs only so many spa salons and "success coaching" businesses. The real growth is in real economy (Hint: it is around 4-5% at least) ranging from transport to shipbuilding, to aerospace to extraction. You know, tangibles which make humanity live and prosper. Meanwhile, here are the results of IMF "activity" in Argentina (among many other countries):

There is a reason Argentina wants to join BRICS. Way better than to be a financial slave of IMF. Russia experienced it first hand, in 1990s--a favorite shtick of the Western bankers is austerity, because some ass-hole from NYC, Miami or L.A. cannot afford the latest Lamborghini or a vacation home at Martha's Vineyard.  

P.S. Germany OK-ed the transfer of its MiG-29s it gave to Poland in 2002 to Ukraine.  

Monday, February 13, 2023

The Issue Of Scale.

 Mr. Stoltenberg is an exhibit A of why Western "economics" education is primarily a fraud. Don't look at me, an authority on economics orders of magnitude greater than me, Michael Hudson, also thinks so.

Remarkably, Jens Stoltenberg's thesis title (from Oslo University) was, drum roll: Makroøkonomisk planlegging under usikkerhet. En empirisk analyse ("Macroeconomic planning under uncertainty. An empirical analysis"). One cannot make this shit up even if one tries. So, this "economics" graduate wrote a thesis on something that cannot be accomplished in the modern West because "macroeconomic planning" and the modern West are irreconcilable things. SMO exposed all superficiality and chaos of West's economies dramatically. 

Remarkably, Stoltenberg, complaining about VSU using "enormous amount" of ammunition, forgets a simple fact of life that Russian Armed Forces use ORDER OF MAGNITUDE than whatever is left of VSU-NATO cabal more, and Russia is not just feeling fine, but dramatically expands the production of every single military materiel and technology she needs. That's real macroeconomic planning under uncertainty. But it is too late for Stoltenberg, and NATO in general, to learn now anything of substance about REAL war and REAL war economy. So, the only thing which is left is to spew propaganda which is increasingly detached, if not completely already, from economic and military realities on the ground. They DID miscalculate that badly, they ARE that ignorant--because the failure is systemic, across all institutions of the combined West, military included. 

Well, USA Today begins to suspect things:

'Little by little they are winning': Tide turns in key Ukraine city. Live updates as Russian offensive begins.

Western main-stream journalism is a combination of pathological lying and ignorance. Because what happens in effect now in 404 is not just "little by little" but a complete, industrial scale, annihilation of 404 and NATO's mobilization potentials. Will the West resort to the only thing it can do--terrorism? Possible. As US Embassy in Moscow urged US citizens to leave Russia, the chair of State Duma Committee On Investigation of Interference Into Internal Affair of Russia, Vasily Piskarev, citing SVR's data, explained that the US assets in Russia are getting ready to conduct terrorist actions (in Russian). Nothing new, really. Well, after NS2 terrorist act it is obvious that this is the extent of the current US military "capability" when dealing with serious adversaries. Could also be yet another primitive hack psyop against the background of obvious military-industrial failure. I warned about it for years--nobody listened. 

Meanwhile, Russia pushes ahead with completion of the newest plant for manufacturing satellites (including SMOTR class--part of SFERA program). Here is report in Russian. 

The plant, which goes into operation this year will be able to manufacture and test simultaneously 4 heavy satellites and 100 light ones. So, that adds to explanation of Musk's sudden "maneuvers" with Starlink.

Sunday, December 11, 2022

Thursday, September 15, 2022

How To Be Written Off...

Anybody who is anybody speaks openly about the fact that Russia's war is with the combined West non-stop for many years. This blog speaks about it for 8 years. So, when some begin to exclaim recently that Russia must understand that her war is with the West, the immediate question is--what stone did you sleep under for the last 8 years. So, in terms of the larger picture we have today Putin and Xi doing their thing in Samarkand, with Xi stating:

And this type of statements is expected but as I am on record, there is a guy in Russian government who is so powerful that many in the West prefer not to talk about him directly very often. His name is Alexandr Novak and he is Russia's energy minister. While putin and Xi were busy making grand strategy statements, Novak, commenting on the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline to China stated this:

САМАРКАНД, 15 сентября. /ТАСС/. Газопровод "Сила Сибири - 2" может стать фактической заменой для России газопровода "Северный поток - 2". Об этом в четверг сообщил вице-премьер РФ Александр Новак в интервью для программы "Москва. Кремль. Путин", фрагмент которого был показан на телеканале "Россия-1". "Ну, фактически - да", - сказал вице-премьер, отвечая на вопрос журналиста Павла Зарубина, может ли газопровод "Сила Сибири - 2" стать заменой "Северного потока - 2". Новак напомнил, что проект "Сила Сибири - 2" обсуждается "на мощность 50 миллиардов" кубометров газа.

Translation: SAMARKAND, September 15. /TASS/. The Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline may become a de facto replacement for Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. This was announced on Thursday by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in an interview for the "Moscow. Kremlin. Putin" program, a fragment of which was shown on the Rossiya-1 TV channel. “Well, in fact, yes,” said the Deputy Prime Minister, answering a question from journalist Pavel Zarubin whether the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline could become a replacement for Nord Stream 2. Novak recalled that the Power of Siberia-2 project is being discussed "for a capacity of 50 billion" cubic meters of gas.

This is a very bad news for EU, which for many decades thought about Russia as a perpetual backward entity entirely dependent on West's industrial and technological expertise. So, seeing now how Russia doesn't give a damn must hurt. Like that:

All the meanwhile Mr. Sechin is laughing all the way to the bank, as is Russia's budget and social and industrial programs. 

Russia’s largest oil producer, state-owned Rosneft, reported on Thursday a 13% increase in its first-half net income compared to the same period last year, boasting increased efficiency despite the Western sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. Rosneft’s net profit increased to $7.2 billion (432 billion Russian rubles) in the first half of 2022. The company’s oil and gas production rose by 1.5% to 4.85 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) as compared to the same assets it held last year, excluding assets disposed of in 2021. “In 1H 2022, Rosneft was under an unprecedented pressure of adverse external factors and unlawful sanctions. However, thanks to high operational efficiency and appropriate management decisions, we were able to ensure business continuity and demonstrate stable results,” Rosneft’s Chairman of the Management Board and Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin – a long-time ally of Putin – said in a statement.

Boy, that's gotta hurt. Not Russia, of course, who is awash in cash. Nope, EU and a neocon cabal in D.C. who have issue of grasping pretty much any issue related to the reality. It is especially important against the background of this RAND and others' "plan" to sacrifice Europe at the altar of Pax Americana, hoping that this sacrificial lamb will extend America's life for any substantial time period. I doubt it to be the case, because the US is the cradle of globalism which goes not just through some cyclical crisis but through the terminal collapse, and in this case whatever value in Europe's sacrifice is, it is not going to change much in terms of systemic collapse of modern combined West and its leader, the United States. Another matter, the United States HAD an opportunity to make landing somewhat softer, but with three corporate figureheads in a sequence, such as Obama, Trump and zombiesque Biden, all opportunities to avert a complete crash have been wasted. America is in dire need of a serious statesman with balls of steel, which modern US "elite" preparation system cannot produce. 

Now, as you probably can sense yourself that this crisis around Kharkov which Western (and Ukie) media were trying to fan, as usual, simply fizzled out and a local tactical success, primarily for PR, of VSU was all for the optics and didn't result in any serious consequences, except beaten to death cliches and... fakes (in Russian). Or, in English:

Vitaly Sovin: The US propaganda machine is playing dirtier than ever in its information war against Russia. From Taliban ‘bounties’ to claims about North Korea, the US media’s ‘anonymous sources’ are weaponizing ‘fake news'. 

Truth is, never in my life have I experienced such a volume of the sheer BS poured over the heads of population of any modern country, with the exception of Ukraine, of course, as Western PR and propaganda machine produces. It is unprecedented and, remarkably, tells you everything you need to know about... weakness of this machine, because, as is the case across the board, it doesn't get any competent cadres and the only skill they have is a production of BS. Meaning literally inventing shit and "selling" it as news. I doubt many normal people work in US MSM--mostly psychopaths, the "proper" selection was set-up this way since 1990s. So, this is your primer for Thursday.

Saturday, August 20, 2022

It Is Not Accidental.

Considering the fact that Politico is a controlled rag, a euphemism for "free press", as most Western media are, such a piece is a dual-track "message" whose point is not to only naturally try to portray the US "in control", but also serves as an attempt to remove a responsibility for war crimes committed by the combined West in Donbass. While the title of the piece speaks for itself, U.S. approves of Ukraine striking Russian-occupied Crimea, passages like this are more important and indicative.

1. Pay attention to this good ol' trick of a "senior administration official". Never any names or titles. Just that--senior "official". It is not accidental, since, see next:

2. "Supporting" striking Crimea is a bridge too far for the United States, because there are plenty of the US assets in Europe and elsewhere which could be introduced to real strikes. 

3. The United States already has committed or supervised a copious number of the war crimes and crimes against humanity in and around Donbass and remaining incognito for some "officials", granted they are not made-up virtual reality figures, which you cannot put past any US media, is important since war crimes and crimes against humanity do not have statute of limitations. 

This is the issue a bunch of good ol' boys and girls from State Department, CIA (MI6) and Pentagon cannot wrap their brains around, because they still think that beating the crap with impunity from some third world backwater is everything it is about the war. It is not. The score is being kept and Russia has a very good memory--meaning names, positions, activity of those people in D.C. is well documented and attempts to distance themselves from atrocities committed by their Ukie SOBs will fail. Russia doesn't fight 404, Russia fights combined West headed by the United States and there are many charges which will be leveled against many people in D.C. E.g. as reported:

This is just one such occasion among many others, including location of mass graves of raped and murdered by Kiev regime's thugs women in Donbass (in Russian), which are being scored not only to Nazis of Kiev regime, but their curators from D.C. and London. For the US "elite" which has zero experience with Nuremberg Trials and crimes against humanity committed by German Nazism, it seems inconceivable that at some point of time they can get charged as war criminals, which many of them are, and get revenge served to them cold. Some, however, do get it either on intellectual or emotional level, hence absolutely fanatical and desperate attempts in trying to keep Kiev regime afloat by pumping it with weapons and "volunteers" and, surprise-surprise, being, in fact, in direct command and control of VSU or, rather, whatever is left of it. One of the major drivers behind all this irrational and, incompetent, behavior is recognition by some of the immediate future the United States faces economically, which also translates into the further decomposition of America's governmental institutions (I am on record since 2015 that the US is ungovernable) and further military weakening, not that the US can fight a real war in Europe. It cannot. 

This is the environment which is conducive for all kinds of internal and foreign policy turns which will, not may, weaken the United States to such a degree that we are talking about actual "regime change" in D.C. and the chaos which ensues. Many people in D.C. worry. Hence, we see more desperation such as attacks on nuclear power station in Zaporozhie and increased number of atrocities against civilians and the US is FULLY engaged in these decisions. As I stated, Russia has a very good memory and, unlike the US, knows what price must be paid in demolishing the criminal globalist order and bringing people on whose hands is the blood of millions of innocent people around the world to justice. They miscalculated grossly, which is not surprising, once one considers in what economic and military alternative universe they all existed since recently, when cognitive dissonance became too severe. 

To illustrate a complete brainwash of the Western public and people who "govern" them, French decided to ask themselves a question on when those dirty, smelly and poor Russian bastards will crawl back to Europe begging to lift sanctions. As France Info reported:

Translation: Almost six months after the start of the war in Ukraine, economic sanctions have repeatedly been taken against Russia. Many large companies have left the country. But that had no consequences for Moscow, which continues to hold firm. Walking into a supermarket in Moscow (Russia) is like walking into any other Western supermarket. The shelves are well stocked. Customers can easily find French products or bottles of wine from Europe. The shortages that some Russians feared a few months ago have not happened. "There are items that have disappeared but they have been replaced," says a Russian. "I'm not going to lie to you, there is everything," confirms another.

The French "journo" still ended up "reporting" beaten to death tropes about China's "parts" and cannibalizing commercial aircraft, but what else do you expect from their kind. Hello, Paris? Russia is a global food EXPORTER, and you can go into ANY supermarket in Russia from Moscow, to Krasnoyarsk, to Vladivostok with Khabarovsk and they will look, especially in large chains such as Lenta, Magnit or Auchan (French chain, btw), like the horns of plenty. Here are Russia's favorite Aussies shopping in Novosibirsk's (one of many) toy stores. 

Or here is how Lenta in Krasnodar looks like.
 
You cannot explain to most in the West the real size and complexity of Russian economy and why Russians in their vast majority despise and scorn the West. In fact, for the first time in history, Russians look at the combined West as poor, degenerate and uncultured. And do not try to compare Paris or New York to Moscow or St. Petersburg. 

Monday, August 15, 2022

Oh, No! Not That!;)) Not Sinking.

Western "economists" and "analysts" are a very interesting breed--they carry worthless pieces of paper called degrees in "economics" from universities where people who never worked a day in life on real job teach them how real economy works, and they love hyperbole. Like this:

The ruble sank early Monday as Russia allowed so-called "friendly" countries to re-enter Moscow's bond market. Moscow's fiat currency fell as much as 1.5% to 61 against the US dollar, while also pulling back roughly 0.2% against the euro. The Kremlin announced plans last week for investors haling from countries that haven't taken part in sanctions against Russia to trade in debt securities. Russia will also convert global depository receipts, or GDR's, into shares to be traded on the Moscow Exchange. Russia's central bank said on Monday that it planned to write off the GDR's from account holders and then credit the shares. Moscow closed off its markets in February to keep a tighter seal on outflows of capital, after President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine. And the ruble's latest fall adds to the wild swings the currency has seen after notching all-time highs and record lows this year.

As you all know I don't deal with this voodoo which Western economics is because I don't deal in magic, occult and magic spells, aka Wall Street. But as always, for anyone who wants to glimpse at economic reality of the world it is worth noting that Ruble was revolving around 60-61 (Hey, Joe, where is those promised 200 for a dollar) for a duration of the last week or so and today it closed at:

Of course, the piece above reports in a proforma manner this piece of news:

Allegedly it is all about divestment and ridding off the "toxic" Russian assets. Sure. But something tells me that there is a lot more to this story than Reuters puts on, and the issue here is very simple: in the long run real economy on which the financial system rests, not the stock market, wins. And while I am no specialist in securities--I am simply not that interested in speculation in general--I give you one example to illustrate the issue. 

Japan has revealed it will keep hold of its stake in the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project in Russia, despite Western energy giants abandoning projects in the country. Industry minister Koichi Hagiuda argued the project was key to diversifying Japan’s energy supply. He said: “Sakhalin-1 is a valuable non-Middle East source for Japan, which depends on the Middle East for 90 per cent of its crude oil imports. There is no change in maintaining the interests of Japanese companies in it.” Sakhalin Oil and Gas Development, a Japanese consortium, owns 30 per cent of Sakhalin-1. Russia has banned investors from so-called unfriendly countries from selling shares in banks and key energy projects, including Sakhalin-1, until the end of the year. This is despite firms such as Shell and BP unilaterally ditching stakes in projects situated in the country following the invasion of Ukraine. 

You try to kick them out, but no--they just don't want to. You see, when one's life is dependent on real, tangible things, not some funny papers--sanctions or not--try to kick them out. And mind you, Russia is imposing her own sanctions on the "unfriendly" countries. But, getting back to Ruble, it is absolutely not a secret that Russia since June went public stressing that:

Russia Doesn’t Want Stronger Ruble, Seeks to Avoid ‘Sharp’ Gains

And that Russia is now in the process of "weakening" the Ruble and tries to find a "golden middle" which will be both good for revenues and budget. The discussion is on now about what is this rate comfortable for Russian economy. Some say it is 65, others go as high as 70. But under no condition all those changes are "sinking" as some try to portray a normal work of the government, which is in a full control of national economy and works with it as a unified organism, unlike it is the case in Western world where suicidal economic and ideological concepts got a stronghold on the West's future which is bleak. But then again, what do you expect from people who cannot find the definition of recession. I am on record, most of those people cannot find their own ass with their own two hands in a brightly lit room, so it is all good. Somebody, tell me where can I buy Tesla or Apple stock, I need to make a good investment before electricity rationing and food shortages start, wink, wink... 

P.S. Something tells me that there are many people in D.C. who would love to lift many more additional sanctions from Russia while making sure that EU imposes new ones. Just a wild thought. But what do I know.

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

They Are Getting The Message.

Make no mistake, I get no pleasure from seeing misfortunes of many people in the West, when they have to face an increasingly difficult economic situation. When it comes to little children--there are no borders for me ethnically, racially, nationally what have you. Innocents MUST have real childhood and should never go hungry. D.C. is finally waking up to one of many emergencies which begin to pop up here and there in the US. There is nothing funny or schadenfreudeish about this.  

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden on Wednesday invoked the Defense Production Act to speed production of infant formula and authorized flights to import supply from overseas, as he faces mounting political pressure over a domestic shortage caused by the safety-related closure of the country's largest formula manufacturing plant. The Defense Production Act order requires suppliers of formula manufacturers to fulfill orders from those companies before other customers, in an effort to eliminate production bottlenecks. Biden is also authorizing the Defense Department to use commercial aircraft to fly formula supplies that meet federal standards from overseas to the U.S., in what the White House is calling “Operation Fly Formula.” Supplies of baby formula across the country have been severely curtailed in recent weeks after a February recall by Abbott Nutrition exacerbated ongoing supply chain disruptions among formula makers, leaving fewer options on store shelves and increasingly anxious parents struggling to find nutrition for their children.

"Supply chain disruptions" is a euphemism for incompetence, malice and ignorance of the Western bureaucracies who have zero understanding of real economy, real governing, real international relations, real warfare and real whatever you want to define as real. But in any civilization, children going hungry is the bottom line--you allow this, you are gone. Not so in the combined West where economic suicide continues within a perverted and dehumanizing economic paradigm rigged to feed 1% and its degenerate desires. 

In related news, have you tried to buy the frozen french fries (good ones) in Walmart recently? Have you checked the prices for meat and milk? Have you seen this? 

Why Russia’s Economy Hasn’t Collapsed Under The Weight Of Sanctions

You know why? Because Russia operates in a different economic and cultural paradigm which they don't teach in Ivy League madras of "humanities", and who have no fucking clue what really matters in life. The life of you child does matter, your "portfolio"--not so much. 

Monday, April 4, 2022

For "Financists".

I put quotation marks for a reason but make no mistake--I understand the importance of money for the economy, they are the blood of economy. But here is the problem about which I am on record for many years--unlike tangibles of agriculture, machines, healthcare and education, money, finances that is, whose properties can be described in purely materialistic terms, e.g. "this lathe is 50 years old but it still does the job and does it well", or "this dump-truck sucks, and is about to break, because...", you realistically cannot do this with money. 

Whether you like it or not, but money always carry with them a huge baggage of appropriated mythical qualities which are, unlike it was the personal case with Hank Hill who shed his tear for his truck by watching movie about the "death" of a tractor, money and their effect are omnipresent in human culture and are either extolled or condemned. In the end, Judas sold Jesus out for 30 silver coins, money that is, not for the new Ford truck or X-Box whatever the latest model. Remarkably, it is in the times of serious troubles when money lose all its allure and tangibles become more precious than money. What's the point of money when life-sustaining 125 grams of bread in Leningrad in 1942 could be received only by presenting the coupon (card--kartochka) and you couldn't buy it even if you wanted to no matter amount of money. What is the worth of money when your life depends on tourniquet and a vile of penicillin but you need it now to survive and no amount of money can buy you both, rather inexpensive items. 

You may say my examples are not precise, sure--I do not pretend to cover all bases. But for years I continue to drive this point home: money are just the medium of exchange and as such they are a derivative, however important, because they either have foundation of tangibles or they don't. Bretton Woods and US Dollar emerged primarily due to a fact that the United States in 1944 was the only country among world powers which not only hasn't been devastated by the War, but, in fact, benefited greatly from the war and in 1945 US economy was responsible for 50% of world's manufacturing in goods. Simple as that, anyone who tells you otherwise--they better get back to school and take a basic truthful course of the history of the 20th century. But now we live in the 21st. 

The US dollar is dealing with some of the same challenges that the British pound faced in the early 1900s, before it went into decline, Goldman Sachs said in a research note released on Thursday. The Wall Street bank warns that the greenback could lose its global dominance. According to the research seen by Business Insider, the move by Washington and its allies to freeze much of the Russian Central Bank’s foreign currency reserves has raised concerns that countries could start moving away from the dollar. Analysts explained the risk as due to worries about the power the dollar grants the US. The challenges that Goldman Sachs named include the fact that the US has a relatively small share of global trade compared to the dominance of its currency in global payments. Another issue is that the country has a deteriorating “net foreign asset position,” with rising foreign debts. In addition, the nation faces geopolitical problems, such as the conflict in Ukraine. The Goldman Sachs economists also said the nation’s large debts due to the fact that it is a big importer of goods could be a particular problem.

No shit, geniuses. How about you learn for warm-up what is the national power and how it is formed, before throwing our way all these contrived financial psychobabble and translate it into normal human language for the average Joe on the street, that the US economy is dwarfed by China's, that India, for all her problems is ticking up economically and will overtake the US fairly soon, that Russian economy is larger than that of Germany possibly two to three times, that the only thing which matters in the world is how large your economy is and what you produce and how you can defend your resources and sovereignty. And it goes without saying that the United States and its currency begin to fail across the board on pretty much any criteria. 

And then there is a power element to all this: Russia's massive resources are defended by one of the best armed forces in the world and massive arsenal of both nuclear and conventional high precision stand-off weapons. The United States cannot realistically fight conventionally Russia without sustaining catastrophic loses and immediately escalating to the nuclear threshold. Hence a hysteria about Ukraine and a complete butt-hurt propaganda about Russia "losing" in 404. This is not about caring about Ukraine, it is in full understanding that the US-established zero-sum game militarily with Russia is an excellent demonstration of how US proxies have their asses kicked starting from Georgia in 2008, to Syria and now, the last best hope of neocons, in Ukraine. Against the background of the US having zero prospects in Syria, having been pushed from Iraq and being utterly humiliated militarily in Afghanistan--the US doesn't seem that mighty and invincible, in fact the opposite is true and the world took note. 

The only chance for the US to fight China is on Indian Ocean's SLOCs, where the US Navy still holds the edge, primarily because of its submarine force, but China is building up and will eventually both mitigate her dependence on SLOCs and develop a serious naval deterrent. I don't want to even go into the discussion of the US pretending that it can fight PLA on the continent--this is not even funny. So, there you are. Now Borisov made an announcement that new State Order for Defense (GOZ) will include further robotization and deployment of direct energy weapons (in Russian). Always keep in mind this military aspect--it is what shapes geopolitics.  

Russia de facto introduced the gas Ruble, oil Ruble is coming because both Gazprom and Rosneft exited their EU subsidiaries and now have nothing to do with them--let Germany "nationalize" them (I guess one can always use additional office furniture and empty storage facilities) and now EU doesn't have contracts for gas and oil, since, before the latest events, contracts were signed with... and you have guessed it, EU subsidiaries of Gazprom and Rosneft which now haму no relation to either Gazprom or Rosneft. Good luck, EU, negotiating new contracts with Gazprom and Rosneft. I heard Gazprom Bank is a very good bank, and, most importantly, it is in Russia which precludes the repeat of West's standard procedure of robbing others, such as was freezing Russia's currency assets worth in excess of $300 billion. I know, for German "elites" who still view Russians as subhumans (old habits are difficult to get rid of) this whole thing is so humiliating but Europe made her choices. No contracts, no resources. What is the Euro worth now? And this is just the start. 

Now, we can go back to what I mentioned yesterday about Hungary and Slovakia becoming this proverbial window from EU in order to somehow satisfy its needs. Well, I am 100% sure both Hungary and Slovakia will be only happy to oblige because they have no problems with doing what is profitable for their countries and do not give a shit about ideology. This also explains the fact that Russians are in no hurry to return about 500 Boeing and Airbus planes leased by Russia's air lines and Russians are really stunned by sheer idiocy of the West which thinks that it can steal more than 300 billion USD from Russia and Russia will not retaliate. Those 500 commercial aircraft cover a large portion of $300 billion stolen from Russia and Russians will have no problem servicing them, because Russia has her own massive aerospace and adjacent to it industries capable to manufacture any spare parts. So, you see--physical economy is a very different game than currency speculation and stock trading, and even banking. It is what you have at hand which matters, not what you project. In the times of troubles this is absolutely true.

In related news, Russia continues to lose tremendously in 404, to such a degree that what's left of Marines 503 battalion of VSU (264 people) decided not to risk it anymore:

And surrendered. Good for them, LDNR will need all manpower it can get to restore Donbass cities and towns. Very many VSU POWs are already working clearing streets and rebuilding on the liberated territories. I mean those who were just grunts, Nazis have a very different fate for them. And this is the primer for Monday.

Saturday, March 26, 2022

Ah, No...

POTUS made a declaration in Warsaw in his speech, he stated that Russian economy will shrink two fold (hm, what it reminds me about, I wonder, wink, wink) due to sanctions and then stated something altogether strange--he stated that Ruble to US Dollar going rate is: 200 to 1 (in Russian). Well... Here is March 26 (I mean today) and here is the reality:

It is the same ol' story about "15,000 KIAs", this time about economy--it is all desperation that makes them lie non-stop top-bottom. They all lie, because they feel the end coming. Pay also attention to the news (in the picture) mentioning Daily Mail, while NY Post also runs this headline:

Well, color me surprised... not. As I state non-stop, one has to even lie professionally, by "professionally" meaning making lies believable--they cannot do that in the West due to incompetents dominating corridors of power and influence from Brussels to Washington D.C. Plus, it is my assertion for a long time that most of them in those corridors do not even understand what real economy is and why, even if it would come this, you know 200 Rubles to 1 USD, it would make little difference because Russians want Rubles, not Dollars and Ruble today, unlike it was in the Soviet Union, buys you anything you want, because Russia IS NOT the country of deficit as Soviet Union was. 

So, basically POTUS lying openly to everyone merely proves the level of desperation in D.C. regarding this whole 404 business, after all, the US wanted to see Russia getting her nose bloodied there, but it turned out quite differently. Again, I reiterate, those who "planned" Iraq and Afghanistan, it goes logically, would have huge difficulties understanding and assessing what goes on in Ukraine today. I just have one advice--hire more lawyers and PR people, they will show you how to plan and assess military campaigns properly, or how to govern (wink, wink). 

Here are VSU soldiers surrendering (Nazis--are a different thing, they will be annihilated or taken prisoners and persecuted):

They will be taken care of (medical, food, bathing, rest) and after filtration will be either sent back home or given an option to form police forces in newly freed regions of Ukraine serving for new Military-Civilian Administrations. Per the amphibious ship Saratov, it is a loss and being a very old ship she will be struck down. The ammo compartment exploded due to hit by cassette warhead and it started a massive fire. The fire was dealt with, but this old ships is a goner.  

Mariupol: a drastic drop in intensity of Neo-Nazi response by heavy weapons is reported (they simply are running out of ammo) and the city sees law and order returning. As War Gonzo reports: the actual size of fanatical Nazi force in Mariupol was around 20,000, most of it is annihilated and two pockets which are left and shrinking both contain roughly of 3,000 each. This was yesterday. Judging by reports of very many Nazis trying to escape Mariupol even dressing in women's clothing Mariupol's operation is at its end and most what is left is smoking out a remainder of what was considered the best fighting force in 404, and de-mining the city. 

Here are some specimen taken POW by Kadyrov people. I think they might be Azov but I am not 100% sure.      

The first thing which is checked for belonging to Nazi groups are their tattoos and then indicators of carrying and using small arms. Then FSB and LDNR Security people take it from there. In Russia, meanwhile, the idea of return to death penalty is now being circulated on the level of State Duma. I think it is about time. Macron meanwhile talks about introduction of coupons for the right to buy groceries in France (Oh, boy, USSR of late 1980s comes to mind) and after watching yesterday people in one of the French grocery stores fighting for vegetable oil, yep, seems like this is coming. Don't tell me that I didn't warn about it. Here is you primer for the weekend. 

Friday, March 11, 2022

No Shit, "Geniuses".

You all know my attitude towards Western "analytics" in both military and economy, I make it patently clear all the time. Here is another case of Duh!

I spoke about this today too. Sadly, it seems MacDonald's decided to reverse its earlier decision to move out of Russia and Russians are now stuck with this obesity-inducing institution. But there is a logic in MacDonald's decision--move out of Russia, scores of others are already waiting in the wings to take your place. Both Russian and international. Only people who haven't been to Russia or know literally nothing about her--primarily Western journos and "intelligence" community--they should understand that neither China, nor Turkey, not India are letting this huge lucrative market to slip through their hands. Moreover, China, while leading the world in some civil technologies, is staying with Russia to also "harvest" some other Russian technologies, including extraction and aerospace among many others, where Russia leads the world. 

And then, of course, there is energy, agriculture, tourism (enter Turkey) and some major civil construction projects. Most Westerners still cannot grasp that the edifice of Western "prosperity" has disintegrated, and that the combined West long ago stopped being this "It" thing in most fields. As the example of France shows, some begin to grasp it. Here is some news (I spoke about it today) from Germany:

Well, this is just the start. I have a "secret" to divulge--most of Europe's economy is not economically viable, because it is unsustainable in general and Russia DOES NOT depend on EU anymore. Especially with many others gladly trading with Russia, while the combined West literally goes to hell with increasing speed. Even my beloved Pink Floyd (great musicians, ignorant politicians) decided

Pink Floyd guitarist David Gilmour announced that all of his solo music, as well as all of the progressive rock band’s pre-1987 catalog, will be pulled from streaming services in Russia and Belarus on Friday over the conflict in Ukraine. “To stand with the world in strongly condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the works of Pink Floyd, from 1987 onwards, and all of David Gilmour’s solo recordings are being removed from all digital music providers in Russia and Belarus from today,” said a statement posted on the band’s Twitter account. The US and most of its allies have denounced the Russian offensive, enacting widespread economic sanctions against Russia. Many international organizations and private businesses followed suit, banning Russian athletes, canceling cultural events and ceasing cooperation.

It is always regrettable when people of art get involved in politics while having zero background in politics related fields, but Pink Floyd were first, while I hoped to see U2 relieving Russia of their over-hyped and grossly overrated music. Well, what can I say, there is nothing more ironic than multi-millionaires (I believe Pink Floyd's catalogue is worth many billions) trying to be righteous. What combined West doesn't get yet is that it is over for it. No, make no mistake, financial markets will continue to function, stocks will trade, somebody will even make some small fortunes playing with currency, but one fact remains unchanged--Europe will (it is already in progress) lose its manufacturing industries due to competition and high energy costs and this is not changing. The Brave New World is upon us and those in the West who didn't understand it will feel it soon or, as this hapless steel company from Germany found out--you cannot cheat nature and laws of physics. You simply can not, no matter how you try. 

I will address the issue of an abject failure of the main masturbation subject for fanboys and military porn lovers--Ukie UAVs--in a dense air defense environment and with fully operational air force later. Many people do not understand that this was predicted and I wrote extensively on this issue, such as this, a year ago: 

In general, it will be fascinating to discuss how ignorant militarily people are when buy into military porn not understanding what is behind all this "shiny" military technology operationally. As Andrey Raevsky pointed my attention today to this link (found out at Colonel Cassad's site) with a pseudo-military psychobabble by some Ben Connable:

Updated: Russian Occupation of Ukraine Troop-to-Task Estimate

I begin to wonder why this Boris Rozhin posts this amateur BS on his site, but then again, I am on record--the guy who promoted mentally unstable Girkin (Strelkov) and never served a day as a cadre officer (in fact, he never served at all), guess from three times why I never defer to him or his resource. But on the subject matter of article--this "professor" of security studies better learn the actual situation on the ground in 404 and stop applying irrelevant lessons from the 20th century. Not to mention the main fact of Russia having no intentions of occupying Ukraine, not to mention the fact of inevitable formation of militias in liberated areas which will deal with counter-insurgency primarily. But that is just a side note. But in the end, have a nice weekend and partake in a lighter side of war:

No need to know Russian. There is a lot of really good stuff being posted nowadays on this issue. Enjoy while you can, Orwellian reality is upon us.

Thursday, December 16, 2021

It Hurts Where It Matters The Most. Wealth.

Of course, money are important as are the prices. They are the reflection of actual economy, but the average Western "economist" today is a person who is removed from actual economy very far. Suffice it to say that modern managerial class in the West understands only the language of stocks, capitalization, futures and trades. They DO NOT understand how economy works. How else can you explain Europe's and, to a somewhat lesser degree, America's ongoing economic suicide. 

European power prices soared to records after Electricite de France SA said two nuclear reactors will stop unexpectedly and two will have prolonged halts -- just as the continent heads for a cold snap with already depleted gas inventories. German electricity for next year jumped more than 10% as EDF is set to shutter two reactors at its Chooz nuclear plant this week and extend halts of two units at its Civaux site until spring after agreeing with the safety regulator to replace faulty pipes. The facilities make up almost 10% of the French nuclear capacity.  The shutdowns will make the market even more jittery just as temperatures are set to plunge way below average for much of the continent. Peak demand in France alone is set to jump 7% to above 80 gigawatts next week, according to a Bloomberg model.  “The market is already very nervous and extremely sensitive, and the timing of this info could not have been much worse for market participants hoping for a drop in power prices,” said Bo Palmgren, chief operating officer at MFT Energy, a trading company is Aarhus, Denmark. 

Well, Russia did warn about this long time ago, nobody listened. Poland wanted "market" to decide prices on energy, as a result we have what Poland wanted--Gazprom laughing all the way to the bank because of the spot pricing, instead of the long term contracts with fixed price. Not that there is no a downside to this for Gazprom, because, obviously, the pricing not just squeezes, it kills EU customers. But for now, Gazprom already has pretty much returned its investment into the NS2 and really doesn't care what happens to NS2 at this point.

To understand the scale of a calamity in Europe it is enough to look at this graph. 

So it is six and a half times growth of prices. As popular truism states--think twice what you wish for, your wish may come true. But in all this, well, let's call it for what it is--energy catastrophe in EU--there is one aspect which drives all those Western "analysts" from economy to geopolitics completely mad, in fact makes them desperate. It is the fact that it is not them but Russia which makes a shitload of money, which not only rubs the salt on the wounded egos of all those "strategists" and "analysts", but for geopolitical "analysts" complicates their openly anti-Russian, if not Russophobic, matters even more. That all means more money in Russian budget for social, industrial and military programs and the desperation is palpable. It manifests itself with a hysteria in the top political echelons of EU-NATO capitals, such as this legislature to declare Russia a "state sponsor of terrorism", to hollow promises by Stoltenberg that:

At this stage one begins to understand why they fail all the time. I speak about it in my latest video:

But it is just a part of the answer why there are so many stupid people in West's "elites". One of the explanation is (which I repeat ad nauseam) the fact that many of them really bought into their own BS and sincerely believe that they are the best thing ever in the whole universe. Others, obviously are pushing their agenda, but because they are products of primarily humanities programs, especially political science, they have zero understanding of the world outside beyond white board theories and abstract models which do not work. Come on, let's face it--Bill Gates has no formal education, he dropped out of the second year of university and only sublime and complete idiots believe that he is a "self-made" billionaire. Some people believe that Elon Musk is an engineer, which he is not. He has B.S. degree (double major) in "economics and physics", I call it BS. It is NOT an engineering degree. But people want to believe. 

It is their right to believe that this guy with the undergraduate degree with double major in economics and physics is an engineer and these are not real (some of them really good) former and present NASA engineers with graduate and post-graduate degrees, certificates and experiences, who create those flying objects of SpaceX.  

In an affront to the West, Gazprom now got to another domestic project. It is not enough for Gazprom to have already highest skyscraper in Europe as its corporate office--a truly magnificent Lakhta Center.

 

Gazprom now works on the second highest tower in the world--Lakhta Center-2.

I am in no position to discuss failures or advantages of this new giant, but I would say that for all my lack of appreciation for skyscrapers, I would rather be in Lakhta-2 in dazzling St. Petersburg than in Burj Khalifa in the middle of a desert. But I totally get how these powerful symbols of wealth and power of Russia can drive many in the West completely nuts. I know for a fact what a visit to modern Moscow or St. Petersburg can do to many Westerners who get their news from CNN and Wall Street Journal. What many of them do not understand is that hydrocarbon business is increasingly not that crucial for Russian economy as it was even 10 years ago. But then again--you cannot explain it to them, they want to believe that they are the best, and the smartest, and the wealthiest, and the mightiest of them all. Right. Sour grapes and butt-hurt, anyone?