Sunday, April 26, 2020

One Doesn't Need To Be...

An oil industry specialist (I am certainly not one--I stress it all the time), to understand how and why, as even oil-ignorant me warned about Saudis being royally fvcked once they initiated the oil war. Recall what I wrote exactly a month ago: 
You see, even such oil ignoramuses like me knew that Saudis are minor players in this game because only people with nukes, navies, air forces and complex industrial economies of scale are major players. Well, guess what: 
It is kinda self-evident that it is not enough to have product, one has to sell it, has market for it that is, and Russia has her markets, while Saudis are having a hell of a time trying to hold on to ones they...ahem, had. Don't trust me:
Russia knew from the get go that China will have to reposition herself towards Russia's energy (and not just oil) because neither tanker oil, nor LNG can compete with pipelines, especially the ones which are already built and operational, not to speak of a cluster of gigantic Russian processing plants being built right on China's threshold to provide all needs not only in crude and gas but in high value added products of hydrocarbons processing. You know, like Amur Gas Processing Plant. And then, and then... there are Indian Ocean SLOCs which cannot be defended by China once mighty US Navy's submarine force is given the order to interrupt Gulf's oil supplies to China. And yes, there is always Russia and her Armed Forces which can secure supply of necessary energy to China. So, simple--just one look at the map is enough to understand. And we even are not talking about nuclear energy part. Yes, about that: reading today about Rosatom (in Russian), I stumbled on this startling number about legendary MIFI's (MEPhI) international enrollment. While all kinds of fraudster rating agencies in the West blow smoke up our assess creating all kinds of university ratings, among Turkish students the competition for a single vacancy in MIFI reaches 72 applicants. 

So, Russian-Chinese relations are going to be growing not just because out of pure economic sense but geopolitical too. Or geoeconomical one, if one wishes. It seems that China finally understood who real friends are or, as they say in Caucasus, close neighbor is closer than the remote relative. As for oil wars, they are just but one episode of a much larger (and by much I mean order of magnitude) global realignment which involves way-way more than just actual oil, not to speak of worthless speculative papers aka futures, but a strategic reorientation of the world towards nuclear energy and, eventually, transition to a manned exploration of the Solar System.  

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