Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Noblesse Oblige.

Merriam-Webster gives this definition of Noblesse Oblige
This time, however, we apply this definition not to the particular person or persons, but to the nations. No, don't expect me to talk about past, we need to concentrate on the present and the future. I periodically hear and read such fantasies: can you imagine if the United States, China and Russia would cooperate, what a wonderful world would it be then. I am not against this fantasy and I understand its appeal but I am also a hard core realist (no, not in American sense of realism which is largely a misnomer for a "slightly less exceptionalist") and I understand that this state of the affairs is, for now at least, well, fantasy. This, however, should not relieve superpowers from having Noblesse Oblige and exercising it. How? Let's go back in history before the United States completely went off the rails and at least tried sometimes to exercise Noblesse Oblige.  Here is an account of the US military exercising it to the fullest in 2005. 
This is how you do it, folks, and nobody has the right to forget that. This is how superpowers are supposed to behave in a global stress situations. Russians know this, they sent today a giant AN-124 Ruslan stuffed with medical supplies to the United States:
China was helping non-stop many others. Noblesse Oblige, folks. But how it relates to oil wars, you may ask? Well, here is the deal. Trump DID call Putin and they had a long conversation which dealt with issue like this, no it is not April Fool's joke, it is reality:
Says it all, and US shale oil industry is in deep-deep trouble, so much so that POTUS was forced to talk to Putin and.... he hasn't been ostracized for this call by even most vile DNC-controlled media, at least not yet. There is a reason why: Russia is a state actor which could be reasoned with, unlike is the case with MBS and Saudis, and here is this Noblesse Oblige point between the US and Russia, which doesn't exist between Saudis and Russia with US respectively. Russia understands that utter collapse of US economy, much of which is dependent today on shale oil, is NOT a blessing for Russia, especially when these were Russians who were indicating non-stop that they are interested in relatively soft-landing of the United States which would allow to avoid a huge economic mayhem globally. Unlike the United States, Russians know damn well what collapse of the superpower (USSR) looks and feels like. Russians also take account of US political class, much of which is simply totally corrupt, insane or both. So, Russians ARE NOT interested in the American implosion understanding consequences of that. This is both: understanding of the global trends and responsible behavior which, however emotionally would make sense for many in Russia, precludes burying the United States by annihilating its shale industry. Russians merely want to cut the US to size, not to kill the US, albeit for many this is a very desirable outcome. 

But Russia, again, offers new (in reality-old) rules--Noblesse Oblige--between superpowers. This was in plans before Covid-19 pandemic and was, not without justification, termed Yalta 2.0. Putin proposed this "Big Five" summit in Jerusalem at Holocaust Forum on January 23, 2020 (in Russian). Putin spoke about victors, not losers, for this summit. Of course, this summit is postponed today due to obvious reasons, but the agenda still stands--multipolar world with great powers (superpowers) taking responsibility for its normal and peaceful development. Recall now, that the US is a huge part of this "Big Five", Saudis, however, are not. The multipolar world is already here and American unipolar moment is over, but it doesn't mean that US economy should be deliberately crushed, especially by the shithole of a gas-station masquerading as a country. Yes, it is Saudi Arabia I am talking about. One just don't allow some medieval satrapy which produces only two things, oil (and even that due to someone's expertise and technology) and Islamic radicals, to shape the global outlook before big guns had a chance to settle it.  Nobody in their own mind ever proposed to cancel a pecking order geopolitically. Well, the United States tried, by proclaiming itself a hegemon, but that momentary lapse of reason was momentary in historic terms-some 20-30 years at best. The time of great powers is back with vengeance, Saudis, for some reason decided that they are the players here too. That goes way beyond the oil wars, that Saudi decision has metaphysical and geopolitical ramifications for the new world order--such ramifications are unacceptable.

So, that brings us to a conclusion that, judging by the events of the last 48 hours, US and Russia are negotiating something and Russia already stated today that she will not increase her oil output (in Russian), read this:
If I would be MBS, I would be shitting my pants the moment I read this news. It is one thing for Saudis to play nations against each-other, totally another--to piss off such dogs as US and Russia, who are now in negotiations on how to handle this shithole of a country which decided that she has the right to, pardon my French, fvck with big guns. I am sure, that both Russians and Americans now are pretty much on the same page in terms of possible, democratic "regime change" in Riyadh. Moreover, I am 100% positive that neither Moscow nor Washington want to deal with MBS at this stage. The guy is, obviously, insane and, frankly, down right stupid. You see, some contours of new world order of Big-2 (in reality 3, with China in the background) already in a process of helping it to emerge. This is superpowers' Noblesse Oblige to each-other. It is an exclusive club and it should remain such. This, plus, in the end, rephrasing the words of one American general about Russians during Detente of 1970s, when he was speaking about comparing Rooskies and Chinese: Russians are, of course, sons of bitches, but they are our sons of bitches--they, like us, like nice suits and good Whiskey. This applies completely in reverse in relations to the US. Especially once present American "elites" will be cleaned out and place disinfected by current events and tribulations they bring.   

We live in insane times, inside a geopolitical shift of unprecedented scale which, if we survive it, will be recorded in history as a final gasp of the liberalism and the ruin it brought upon the humanity. Some, in these times, lose their head and begin to behave irrationally, without calculating consequences for themselves and others. This is what Saudis did hoping for their bluff not to be called. It was called and now we have a rather unique situation, Russia and US cooperating. Hm, who would have thought. As per shale oil industry--it is for oil specialists to discuss if it will survive as such and if it will remain strictly for a domestic consumption. I do not want to go further in speculations on what would happen if Saudi Arabia ceases to exist as a state? Anything is possible in crazy times, including the emergence of some strange geopolitical configurations, especially when Noblesse Oblige is exercised.   

UPDATE: immediate follow-up. Here are some more details. 
For the member countries of OPEC+, mandatory cut in their oil output levels ended as of Wednesday, while the future of alliance between Moscow and Riyadh remains unclear. Russia and Saudi Arabia are currently not holding any talks regarding the oil market, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday. He added that Putin has no plans to set up a phone call with Saudi leadership, adding the two countries can initiate a dialogue if necessary. 

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