Stumbled upon yesterday's Michael Hudson's interview where he answers this question:
Ross: Well, let me suggest that you were living in one of the most advanced oligarchies in the world at the moment. So how does this end?
Michael Hudson: Ha! The same way that Rome ended. In Rome the oligarchy always overreached itself, impoverishing the economy. In Rome that led to a Dark Age. We’re going to be entering something like that at the end of summer in this country, because you’re going to have many homeless pouring onto the street, many families losing their homes, small businesses who’ve had to go under, medium-sized businesses that have decided to sell out to the large private capital funds. The economy is not going to look very pretty.
Read the whole interview, especially oligarchy part, but while I agree with Hudson, I think one important detail must be added to purely economic outlook and I mean, of course, real economy. I read at Saker's site a very interesting piece by Ramin Mazaheri about millenials: Pity post-corona Millennials… if they don’t openly push socialism. Before going there let's remove a little 800 pound gorilla or two out of the way:
1. The term "socialism" as it is used in the United States is absolutely meaningless term because it doesn't cover all complexities of "socialist" model which is way more complex than mere "state's (collective) ownership of the means of production". So when you read the term "socialism" be aware that even if to use adjusters for state's involvement into the economy it still wouldn't give people in the Western block any better understanding of such a complex phenomenon as socialism. One thing for sure, however, is that whatever "socialism" means under any particular circumstances it surely means ANTI-laissez faire'. This one applies well.
2. I am NOT a "socialist", despite giving Soviet version of it proper credit for a number of outstanding achievements in every single sphere of human activity ranging from culture, to economy, to war, to science and the list is huge. I am, however, in no way reluctant to discuss failures of said Soviet model nor am I a Marxist, despite using Marxist method in my analysis. I am an economic fusionist, who understands human nature and self-interest as NOT always rational, plus it is my long-standing position that Anglo-American economic "theories" are the theories created inside the environment which never knew Continental Warfare of any serious scale and are absolutely anti-scientific and are nothing more than ideological concoctions, especially as is the case for modern era.
Now that this is out of the way, I have to give Mazaheri a credit where credit is due because he states some crucial truths about modern generation:
... the very sectors where Millennials can be most often found – restaurants, retail, tourism, hospitality and creative – will be the most decimated by corona lockdowns. What’s more, this age group has – necessarily – the least seniority, experience and skills and thus they will be the first to be fired in every sector. Labor participation rate for Millennials had only just returned to pre-2008 levels, but – as I stressed to my often-dismissive elders – levels “returned” only via terrible part-time jobs, gig economy work and short-term contracts in Europe. How long will it take to return to (these fundamentally inferior) pre-2020 levels? ....if you thought Millennials were too sensitive before, then imagine how they will be after the corona trauma? There is no “victory” to be had here for the survivors – all they did was cower at home, sometimes snitch on their neighbors, and often couldn’t even risk trying to volunteer to help the elderly and vulnerable. This is going to create guilt and shame personally, mistrust and resentment socially, and a desire to save, hoard and not take risks economically.
Pay attention to the fact of this very generation being one of the most important pushers for legalization of pot and users of it, not to mention other drugs of choice, which automatically precludes them from entering a serious labor force thus reducing their already less than impressive competitiveness, once, especially the "level" of education in the American public schools is considered. Moreover, apart from drug problem it is also a generation of the most active Social Justice Warriors, namely people with a complete mental breakdown being exhibited daily all over every existent social media platform where this generation worships bat shit crazy Greta Thunberg, fights for the rights of the unicorns and goes "woke" in vast numbers daily. Make no mistake, this whole psychiatric event didn't start with millenials, it started with Boomers. So much so, that the best of them, people with enough intellect and consciousness to see what is going on, apologizing:
History will probably record that America’s Baby Boom generation threw one helluva party; Gen X was left with the sorry task of cleanup crew; and the Millennials ended up squatting in the repossessed haunted party-house when it was all over. On behalf of the Boomers, let me try to explain and apologize.
But it is too little, too late on a scale of generations. And I do feel sorry for generation which was convinced that FIRE economy was a viable one, it never was. In case of emergencies first casualty is always a service sector. Millenials, using Russian expression, were left at the broken trough. But if that wasn't bad enough, this generation, especially its urban "advanced" category of iPhone users, Elon Musk-worshiping, Beyonce listening, metrosexually sensitive, part is absolutely not ready for real life. They never were from the inception, and that is a huge problem. Them "pushing for socialism"? With all my respect to Mazaheri otherwise excellent piece, here is how their "pushing" looks like:
I am sure American oligarchy couldn't have asked more for feeling absolutely secure in their position than Millenials' "socialist aspirations". It also makes a significant segment of Millenials who know how to shoot, fight and start fire in the woods, delightful by looking at their future victims. But I know what I am talking about from the rich personal experience of studying Marxism-Leninism not only in theory but seeing how this theory was applied to creating a powerful, technologically very advanced, military, massive economy and suppression apparatus of appropriate scale. After all, it was none other than Lenin himself who is on record that "Revolution is worth something only when it can defend itself"(c). Bingo! I doubt that liberal arts graduate who used to work in Starbucks as a barista and who knows all differences between iPhones and what Game of Thrones characters are all about, understands anything about basic tactics of urban combat or ever saw how a person dies. So, under these circumstances, the case for socialism's triumph in the US is rather weak. Increase in banditry, gangsterism, street violence--that goes without saying, it is to be expected, but not the push from generation of many splendored genders brought up on Star Wars "woke" versions for "socialism". Industrial plant and its labor force are a much better medium for arriving to the threshold of "socialist" aspirations simply because of a different cultural outlook. But never mind, we all should remember that Marx saw... the United States as the country perfectly primed for socialist revolution. Well, he abhorred Russia and Russians and I am not sure what a level of a butt-hurt would he have experienced should he lived long enough to witness the events of 1917.
This is my only quibble for otherwise superb article which is worthy of reading. At this stage, however, we all should also expect a degree of social disobedience from many Americans who, actually, ARE bearers of a true spirit of freedom which could be one of those unforeseen factors for present American oligarchy who thinks that it had it all under control. Many Americans, and even some Russians (wink, wink) still believe in some inalienable, God-given rights and that it is on display today in Michigan.
And liberty for all. This is the factor X in all of that, not to mention the fact...drum roll...of Democratic Party trying to sabotage the nation to have any chance this year at elections. Read attentively: I still didn't disclose my theory of which I stated some time ago, but more and more facts begin to emerge that make Covid-19 affair in the US look rather suspicious.