Sunday, April 12, 2020

As Was Expected.

Recall, from the get go, people who deal not just in oil or economy, but practical geopolitics too, predicted and stressed that Russia will cut production ONLY when the United States joins in. Call it whatever you want, OPEC ++, Cartel, Toys R US, but it is happening. Let's recall what was pointed out by many (me included):
So, the United States made a correct choice and joined in. 
Didn't we tell you so? I understand that the second wave of reasonable enough questions on how can one trust the United States in this matter is coming. The answer to that is damn simple--the United States is profoundly invested in this cut because it is about the United States' oil industry survival as such. It is akin to a victim of an earthquake having one of its legs completely smashed by a fallen massive concrete block and facing two options: either die in place with his leg under this block or have the leg amputated in place (yes, this was performed in reality and not for once), because it would have been amputated anyway, and have a good fat shot at continuing living. Yes, as a disabled person, but still--alive with most of functions still intact. That is a good analogy. This is exactly how it all happened. 

There are still speculations on what will be the actual American contribution to global cuts, but it is clear it will be at least 2 million bpd and possibly as high as 3 (in Russian). It is a historic deal and it is a first step to global oil cartel--the exact strategic objective of Russia who simply got tired from propping up American oil and gas producers by playing along with OPEC. Now let the speculations and rumor mill, together with face saving spins, start but it is clear that MBS and Saudis had their ass handed to them, as was expected, plus they ended up having to shoulder all blame for starting the war against US shale oil. The big guns, meanwhile, have a lot to discuss apart from OPEC++, oil and other energy issues. But that is a separate story and it is related to Noblesse Oblige. In news related to that issue: Putin spoke yesterday, on the eve of Russian Day of Cosmonautics (April 12, 1961 Gagarin launched into space), to the crew of ISS and praised Moscow-Washington cooperation in space. 
It is a coincidence but I also congratulate my Western Christian denominations friends with Easter (Eastern Orthodox one is on April 19) and as they say in Slavic countries: Christos Voskrese (Christ is risen). Good health and good fortune to all of you.

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