Showing posts with label threats.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label threats.. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Ouch.

 Aircraft do crash--comes with the territory. 

Meanwhile, French "resistance" explains to natives what's going to happen to France (it is in progress for a long time now). I cannot vouch for this video, but seems to be legit, plus a lot of weapons are streaming back to Europe from 404. 
After that it would be interesting to learn what is the contingency planning of the French General Staff when, say, the South of France explodes. As French intel warned it is not if, it is when. Of course. Judging by French "performance" in Sahel--do not expect much. I am sure they will blame Russia. 

Thursday, February 17, 2022

Hypersonic Mambo-Jumbo.

 Andrei Raevsky forwarded me this article today. 

Only Small Inventories of Hypersonic Missiles in USAF’s Future, Due to Cost.

Any surprise to anyone? Not really. The piece discusses hypersonic technology development in the US and we all know the story, so to speak, in general. But in the middle of this article is hidden the most important point. There is no doubt that the US will eventually develop and procure some sort of a glider. But...

“I think there’s room for both” boost-glide and air-breathing hypersonic cruise missiles “in our inventory,” Kendall asserted. However, air-delivered hypersonic weapons are at a disadvantage, he said, because “the idea of getting there fast is sort of countered by the fact that you have to fly the airplane there before you launch the missile. So you lose some of that advantage” versus forward-based ground- or sea-launched missiles. He said he doesn’t begrudge the Army pursuing hypersonics for long-range strike because the Air Force is happy to have help in knocking out air defense systems and redundancy gives an enemy more dilemmas. But, “the specific applications are going to have to be based on cost effectiveness and a number of other factors.”

It is a revealing admission of what I am on record for years now--aseroballistic missiles are not the same as air-breathers, let alone such air-breathers as 3M22 Zircon which have a start from slow-moving ships and are full blown controllable anti-shipping (and land-attack) missiles designed to hit moving targets, namely ships. The US is nowhere near in developing such weapons.

Moreover, in an emerging conflict between Russia and the US neither characteristics of upcoming US gliders nor their numbers are enough to damage modern developed air-defense (such as Russia's), not to mention the fact that this AD is being configured to US perspective hypersonic weapons which will be limited in numbers due to traditionally astronomical costs of advanced US weapon systems. It is an interesting piece which also reflects on US defense industry issues. And no matter how many fanboys will be offended by this statement, US' losing arms race to Russia is driven in large part by Russia taking a decisive technological lead in air-defense and anti-missile technologies and, of course, in a monstrously advanced field of cruise and anti-shipping missiles, which changed the naval warfare forever. 

As was already reported, Russia deployed 4 TU-22M3 to Syria.

Each of them is capable of carrying 3 X-32 Mach=4.3 missiles. Together with MiG-31Ks armed with hypersonic Kinzhal, this is precisely the salvo required to destroy any surface force, namely CBG. Most likely scenario being Kinzhals removing AEGIS-equipped escorts, with X-32s finishing off the rest of the formation. This is all fitting well with Russia's response being prepared in terms of "military-technical means" to West's failure to react properly to Russia's ultimatum and the number of threats, I think, sadly, to the US military assets and the US proper will grow now really dramatically once the Olympics are closed. I told ya, get a pop-corn and buckle up.

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Predictable.

Yet another "strategy" for doing something-something against some threat to America, this time by The Republican Study Committee's Task Force On National Security And Foreign Affairs. I'll be honest with you upfront--I didn't read this 120-pages long "document" because there is nothing to read there. While I am on record that US Democratic Party's cabal of the "leaders" is a clear and present danger to the existence of the United States as we know it, any Republican "institution", including this Committee of some Task Force is only slightly better in a sense of being slower in terms of completely destroying the United States, but both parties are incompetent and cannot by definition produce any "strategy", which will not be implemented anyway in terms of actual "countering" threats but sure as hell will make America's position even worse. 

The "document" is titled.... well--you can see the summary of this "strategy" here and from there you also can follow, if you have nothing better to do, to the full version. The whole thing is primarily about China, China, China but also has some pages dedicated to Russia, Russia, Russia. I will abstain from commenting on Chinese "threat" which US legislators of the past helped to actualize by aiding and abetting the largest transfer of the American industry and technology to this very same China (you can acquaint yourself with some details here).  Remarkably, though, one phrase from this, whatever it is, attracted my attention, get this from page 7:
China currently has the world’s second-largest economy in terms of nominal GDP ($14.14 trillion) and the largest in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) GDP ($27.31 trillion). 
No shit, even those "geniuses" in Congress are now using PPP (Purchase Power Parity) metric when talking about economy. Evidently a fraud of "nominal" US GDP doesn't do it anymore even for them and forces them to look at still highly inaccurate but more realistic measure of economy expressed through PPP. In real terms, however, there all reasons to suspect that the actual size of US economy is hovering around $10-12 billion and when adjusted vis-a-vis Chinese economy is probably 2.5-3 times smaller. But enough about China. 

I will only stop at Russia, Russia, Russia thingy and immediately point out to this fact: those people want to do this: 
Designate Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism for its support of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah, the Taliban, and the Russian Imperial Movement.    
I do not pay attention to economic "sanctions" on Russia since the United States are inconsequential for Russia economically, being practically non-entity and, as I say not-stop for years--sanctions are very good for Russia, who, by now, also has all things in place in case these "strategists" kick Russia out of SWIFT or attack Russia's sovereign debt. Sure. But declaring Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism is serious (I omit here the fact that Taliban is officially declared a terrorist Organization in Russia, but operating with facts is not a strong trait for US legislators), because it will lead, for already sinking US, to international repercussions on a major scale. You may partake in US Department of State wisdoms on a state sponsorship of terrorism here. But sanctions on such "sponsors" include things of this nature: 
  1. A ban on arms-related exports and sales.
  2. Controls over exports of dual-use items, requiring 30-day Congressional notification for goods or services that could significantly enhance the terrorist-list country's military capability or ability to support terrorism.
  3. Prohibitions on economic assistance.
  4. Imposition of miscellaneous financial and other restrictions, including:


As you can see yourself it is a check list for averting losing in military and economic field under different pretexts and, as facts have it, the United States is not just losing, but lost arms race to Russia, while simultaneously being humiliated in every single conflict she embroiled herself into and, of course, the irritation and extremely painful effects of losing an oil war are very telling. Do you recall, five years ago I warned that Russians are wrong people to fvck with? You can browse this blog 4-5 years back. And here is today's spread. 
This is what really drives Republican desperation. With headlines like this:
One may totally expect Russia to be designated evil incarnate soon and I will not be surprised a bit, honestly. As I stated some short time ago, I increasingly do not buy this "Saudi Arabia started the oil war" concept, because behind Saudis was the United States whose "defense" cowardly Saudi princess ultimately depend on. Not that it is any good, but better than nothing, I guess. Saudis went against the US? Oh, please. The bluff was called, again, and the US, as that proverbial old hack grandma from Pushkin's tale about golden fish granting wishes, was left with a broken trough and her decrepit house. The United States cannot forgive Russia that since 2008 almost every single US bluff or aggression were either called or checked. Those who signed this sheer "strategic" idiocy also need to understand that Russians know for a fact that they, not just as a country, but as a nation, as an ethnicity, as a culture, as a race are mortal enemy for the US establishment and that is why Russians are back into their ultimate national survival mode, of which NO US Congressman or Congresswoman, none, zero, have any clue let alone experience with. That is why they are losing no matter what "strategies" they invent--all of them are predictable, primitive, are anticipated and are already countered. I can understand their frustration. 

But on a practical side of the issue, I really struggle with grasping a sheer nuttiness of this all since they still do believe that they can win some sort of conflict with Russia on the battlefield. Plus they still exercise this illusion expressed in this pearl of Republican strategic (lack thereof) "thought":
Communicate with the Russian people: The strategy would call for the creation of a strategy to communicate directly to the Russian people and support their aspirations for democracy and human rights. 
Didn't late McCain once communicated directly with Russians and was laughed at by most Russians.  Maroons still do not understand that they know nothing about Russia, which is expected of them. They feel that they are losers but they don't know, they still struggle to put a finger on it. I can only scratch my head in disbelief. They really cannot grasp  that they are viewed in Russia as a bunch of midgets and Russians, overwhelming majority of them, wouldn't even share a same acre with these Republicans when taking a dump in the field. I can only suggest to them to get a hold of themselves (you know, hope springs eternal) and try to do something for their country, while it is still intact and, FFS, learn the goddamn real history of Russia. The Russian Navy is older than the US and throughout history Russians dealt with enemies compared to which all of them in D.C. are a bunch of corrupt amateurs good only at self-promotion. So, I dare the US Congress to designate Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism and then see what happens. 

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Guns For Hire?

I stumbled on this just now and was compelled to ask myself a question about purely military-strategic and operational matter: if Saudi Arabia really is afraid (I heard it to be the case) of Iran, what security arrangement thus becomes a most sensible one for her? Get this:
It is a very loaded statement which shows both an American oil industry desperation and, simultaneously, extreme limitations, bar some clandestine operation to remove MBS, in measures the United States can take to "motivate" Saudis to dance to the appropriate tune. Considering Saudis' very real fear of Iran and her influence in the region and the fact that US anti-Iranian sanctions have a lot of Saudi "juice" behind them (not just Israeli one) and that Saudi-Iranian "relations" can only be described as Cold War with all "proxies" involved as a result, one has to ask the question, a purely theoretical (I stress this) one: if Iran was forced, could she devastate Saudi oil (and only viable) industry and mount a massive attack on Saudi state institutions? The answer is really simple--if push comes to shove Iran can disrupt with a dramatic effect Saudi oil production and wipe out storage facilities in several salvos of ballistic and cruise missiles and the United States which has Patriot AD complexes in Saudi Arabia will be able to do very little to prevent it. Simple as that. Iran doesn't need, objectively, to "invade" Saudi Arabia to push her over the threshold of economic chaos and, likely, palace coup if not outright revolution. 

Here comes this purely operational consideration: apart from the United States being royally pissed with MBS', and Saudis' in general, irrational behavior (nothing unexpected here, plus the US has this propensity to have among her allies a lowest scum of the Earth), the reality is very simple: if US is provoked to attack Iran, first localities which are getting devastated are US bases in the region and Saudi oil fields and storage facilities. Simple as that. What will be the "weight" of those salvos is a matter for pure speculations, what is clear, however, that Iran has enough of them and with a very good guidance packages to conduct a prolonged operation against variety of regional targets with very high effectiveness, that is to say decent rate of "leakers" against the most sophisticated air and anti-missile defenses the United States can deploy. In the end, nobody cancelled good ol' over-saturation method of overcoming any defenses. Do Saudis know about that? I don't know, they, let's be frank here, suck at everything related to operation of modern technology, let alone combat one. But one thing is clear--not only the United States cannot defend Saudis in case of an actual (God forbids) war, but the United States itself, including through Saudi lobbying, which is as prevalent in D.C. as Israeli one (I don't know what is current going rate for US Congressman or Senator on the market, but Saudis do have cash, for now), may unleash such a war which will not only result in US catastrophic losses against Iran, but will see Saudi's oil treasure burned by a variety of means ranging from missile strikes to oil fields sabotage, which inevitably will lead to disintegration of KSA as such. 

Hm. Thus the question--a very practical one--who can built a proper and effective air and anti-missile defense for Saudis' main treasure while simultaneously restraining Iran. In the end, he bottom line is always not how you live, however important, but if you live at all. Saudis, certainly, saw how certain country conducts object and area defense operations and how she uses both military and diplomatic power to "calm things down" in the country, to he North, infested with Saudis' very own Al Qaeda and Qatar's very own ISIS. They know how it goes there. But then again, Saudis were in the market for technology which actually works for a while:      
Key Point: The Russians have definitely made a breakthrough with sales of weapons to some NATO countries with uncertain futures in the bloc (e.g. Greece, Turkey) and strong US client countries such as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states such as the UAE. Saudi Arabia’s agreement to purchase the S-400 anti-aircraft Triumf anti-missile system from Russia is a major blow to the United States and its European allies. The deal follows Turkey’s $2.5 billion agreement to buy the S-400, and ongoing negotiations with Egypt for the S-400. Egypt already has the S-300VM system (also known as the Antey 2500) which can engage short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, precision guided weapons, strategic and tactical aircraft, as well as early warning and electronic warfare aircraft. (Originally the S-400 was called the S-300 PMU-3.)
So, you get my drift, right? As I say all the time--in matters of life and death nobody cares how shiny things are, everyone needs and wants the only one thing which matter--a thing which saves your life. That begins to explain a funny statements from Saudis few days ago when talking about Russia being "a family" and that close families always settle their quarrels amicably. You know, all kinds of statements of this nature from the highest power levels of Saudi elites. So, in this case, let me go out on a limb here and propose that Saudis may, actually, have been thinking about changing their posse for a while. In the end, Saudis' main enemy in the region, Iran that is, is in a fairly close relations to Russia who does have some influence on Iran. This influence is, if anything else, dramatically in Saudis' favor because Russia not only doesn't want a war in the region, but has enough wherewithal politically, economically and militarily to, indeed, calm things down. Moreover, behind Russia, which is taking Saudi's share of oil market, is rich China, with her global trade plans. So, Saudis, I am sure are thinking deeply now if they have to go out looking for new guns for hire. Especially, since Russia is openly in this business selling the most desirable, most coveted and most valuable product globally--political stability. How Russia does this, you all know, I write about this for years. In this case, Trump's threats of denying Saudi Arabia American "protection" may not be necessarily a bad news for at least some segments of Saudi princes who surely know where their instincts for survival lead them.    

Thursday, May 11, 2017

What Interests?

I am often critical and sometimes outright dismissive of US foreign policy and a "doctrine" which is in the foundation of a disaster which US foreign policy is. I still remain on this position and I can justify it; it is not very difficult to do. Having said all that, when looking at the sorry state of today's world and understanding that it is undergoing profound changes, there are constants one must consider when analyzing those changes. Among those constants are legitimate national interests of the United States of America. The United States does have national interests which she absolutely must protect and her livelihood depends on protection of those interests. But what are those interests? What is "legitimate" in this case, what is worth for the US to draw real red lines and fight for? This is not an easy question to answer. Once pathos-ridden globalist rhetoric, which permeates most of American geopolitical documents, is discounted, one has to recognize that far from being self-proclaimed guarantor of "world order", the United States not only contributed greatly to its destabilization but ran out of resources to even barely maintain this order, let alone take on what US considers her main geopolitical rivals: Russia and China. 

As Bronislaw Malinowski wrote in his An Anthropological Analysis Of War in 1941:  
Another interesting point in the study of aggression is that, like charity, it begins at home. 
In 1951 Daniel J. Levinson in his Authoritarian Personality And Foreign Policy went further: 

America has only recently come of age internationally; the understanding of international relations requires an ability and a readiness to think in terms of institutional abstractions to which Americans are only just getting accustomed; our newspapers and other communications media tend to perpetuate the existing confusion and ideological immaturity...  The American nation as a symbol is glorified and idealized; it is regarded as superior to other nations in all important respects. Great emphasis is placed on such concepts as national honor and national sovereignty. Other nations are seen as inferior, envious, and threatening. At the worst they are likely to attack us; at best they seek alliances only to pursue their own selfish aims and to "play us for a sucker".

This was written 66 years ago. Most of it applies today easily to current America and it is precisely a set of the US' recurring attitudes which prevents her from both formulating her vital national interests and defending them. I could go deep into American Founding Fathers ideas and wax historical here but those points of view and ideas are so well known that it simply makes no sense to repeat them again. Maybe with the exception of John Quincy Adams' reminder to US Congress in 1821 that America:

But she goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own. She will recommend the general cause, by the countenance of her voice, and the benignant sympathy of her example. She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself, beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom. The fundamental maxims of her policy would insensibly change from liberty to force. The frontlet upon her brows would no longer beam with the ineffable splendor of freedom and independence; but in its stead would soon be substituted an imperial diadem, flashing in false and tarnished lustre the murky radiance of dominion and power. She might become the dictatress of the world: she would be no longer the ruler of her own spirit.
Adams was prescient. But the problem of modern day America turning into "empire" is the fact that US fails miserably as an empire to start with and, for all intents and purposes, is not very good at fighting those "imperial" wars. Not to speak of Adams' warning which came true completely--"enlisting under other banners", those banners being, of course, first of all banners of Israel and of Arabian Peninsula medieval satrapies. A catastrophe in the Middle East was not in American national interest, not to speak of the millions upon millions killed, maimed, displaced innocent Arabs, Christians, Alawites etc. But then again, how US can define her real national interest when she fights constantly for someone else' interests, many of which far from being merely economic ones, are very often genocidal, such as the case of Saudi Arabia's (with US support) behavior in Yemen or Israel being more interested in the existence of Al Qaeda and ISIS than of secular Syrian government. 

One may wax anti-colonial and anti-imperialist whatever one wants--yes, Belgian behavior in Kongo was inhumane--but British imperialism didn't leave just negative marks on its colonies. It left after itself often whole government institutions which worked, it also left skilled administrative, technical and intellectual local elite, it also provided a developmental impetus in places where such a development was greatly retarded. It is not a secret that many in current political and military elite in India went through Oxford and Sandhurst. Friedrich Engels, hardly a Russophile, defined Russian imperial expansion as:
Despite her Slavic dirt and baseness, Russia provides civilizing influence on her Asiatic subjects.      
But this is not what US does with her "empire". Whole Middle East is on fire, Western Europe which was liberated by Allies in WW II is in a cultural death spiral and economic troubles, US involvement in Indo-China in 1960s resulted in utter destruction of the region, with millions of people dead. Building "democracy" in Afghanistan or even Iraq--places which never had a culture even remotely compatible with "democracy"--is an unmitigated disaster. In the end, the so called "liberal democracy" practiced in US resulted in cultural and political trends which completely torn the nation apart and threaten to bury it completely under the rubble of cultural, racial, economic, ideological and political warfare. How can one possibly formulate sensible national interests when the subject which must generate these interests is in a state which is hardly conducive for calm and productive discussion on what real American national interests ARE? 

Are American national interests "large" in economic sense? Absolutely they are--US is still second economy in the world and has a huge internal market and it shouldn't have surrendered her industry to China to start with. What are REAL military threats to the US? Is North Korean missile program a threat to the US? Potentially, yes but how serious a threat? The Fat Thing in Pyongyang is not suicidal. Is Russia a threat? Militarily--only within US globalist world view, since will keep US from global military "dominance" (greatly overrated and talked up), once globalist (and treasonous) US "elite" is discounted, Russia becomes a natural ally, but what about China? Is US maritime dominance under challenge? Only in littorals of the nations US wants to attack, Russia included. US ocean dominance is not under threat and nobody really cares to challenge it there--overwhelming majority of nations are for safe navigation and movement of the goods. Is Latin America a US' "backyard"? Objectively it is but what is US' game plan there? Is globalism a national security threat to US herself? Absolutely--it is poison which kills US slowly but surely. Those questions are numerous and they must be first stated and then answered before one can even start formulating real national interests of the United States. Donald Trump started doing this during his campaign but we all can chip in.  Will we? 

UPDATE: what a coincidence, Pat Buchanan, whom I respect deeply, despite not always agreeing with  his point of view, published today (a day after my post) a piece with telling title: 

             What Is America's Goal In The World. 

There Pat discusses a lot of issues which I posted about yesterday. As I said, I do not always agree with Pat but he is always worthy of listening to.